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All across the Great Western territory => Buses and other ways to travel => Topic started by: grahame on November 27, 2016, 22:16:26



Title: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: grahame on November 27, 2016, 22:16:26
From Passenger Transport (http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2016/11/nothing-ruled-out-as-firsts-bus-profits-slide/)

Quote
Chief executive Tim O’Toole says profit margins at some of the group’s regional bus operations ‘are simply unsustainable’ and action is required. UK Bus operating profit margins have fallen to 3.2%

 FirstGroup has instructed all its UK bus businesses to draw up and accelerate plans to cut costs and revise timetables in a bid to counter the division’s rock bottom profitability. Changes will include service cuts in loss-making and low profit areas so that buses can be reallocated to create higher frequency core corridors.

In a briefing to City analysts, chief executive Tim O’Toole said low profit margins at some regional bus operations “are simply unsustainable and it’s about making changes”.

Group finance director Matthew Gregory also warned that further closures and sales would be considered. “We are not ruling anything out, frankly,” he said in response to questions from City analysts on whether First’s plans involve selling businesses as well as changes to services.

The announcements came as First reported in its half year results that worsening traffic congestion and consumers’ ongoing shift to shopping on line rather than travelling to high streets was continuing to hit bus revenue and patronage.

Like-for-like UK bus revenue fell 1.3% to £426.1m in the six months to October, operating profit fell from £15.3m to £13.5m and the profit margin fell further from 3.5% to 3.2%.

In considering the future shape of the UK bus division, O’Toole said he would balance the long term benefits of turning round a larger business against “changing the portfolio to achieve a healthier overall business sooner because we do not expect conditions to change in the medium term”.

Each UK bus company and region will be subject to a detailed assessment of future opportunities which will include the potential to create higher profits through reallocating buses, the potential to supplement earnings with major contract services and local authorities’ willingness to put congestion-busting measure in place.

Simple mileage cuts have been ruled out. “The trick is to refocus and rededicate the mileage in those corridors where you’ve got the [customer] volumes that will sustain it over time and you can have a frequent, successful network,” O’Toole explained.

Spelling out a warning to local authorities that they need to take action on traffic congestion, O’Toole said First could not tolerate ongoing increased costs from having to put extra buses on its routes simply to maintain frequencies and reliability.

Across the group, First said declining performance in its UK bus and rail businesses had been compensated for by improved results in North America, particularly at the school bus business. Overall, group half year revenue increased from £2.44bn to £2.56bn. Operating profit rose from £88.4m to £89m.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on November 27, 2016, 22:46:29
From Passenger Transport (http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2016/11/nothing-ruled-out-as-firsts-bus-profits-slide/)
Quote
The announcements came as First reported in its half year results that worsening traffic congestion and consumers’ ongoing shift to shopping on line rather than travelling to high streets was continuing to hit bus revenue and patronage.

Hmm.  :-\

Out on those busy roads, as a grocery home delivery driver, I've noted that the bus serving Wrington (just for example - other beautiful North Somerset villages are also available ;) ) is fairly empty on most of its journeys through those country lanes.

While such bus services may indeed be 'a lifeline' to the world outside their village for those who use them, I do understand the question as to whether such services are financially viable, or indeed justifiable, without significant subsidies.

And, just for the record, my employer's grocery home delivery service is free (minimum £60 spend).

I'm not advertising: I'm actually sympathising with Tim O'Toole - times are indeed changing.



Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: grahame on November 27, 2016, 23:04:55
There is a huge amount that could be done to make country buses more efficient to run and more attractive to new passengers ... somewhat acknowledged by the bus services bill passing through parliament at the moment.  We've done a huge amount of work in relation to that in Wiltshire - see http://option247.uk .   If you could get just 4 more fare paying passengers on each bus journey somewhere along the route, you could remove the need for subsidy.

I'm delighted that Wiltshire Council have decided to cut only 10% of their bus subsidy next (local council election) year rather than the 50% they said they needed at consultation. My fear is that if operators such as First Bus pull out of commercial routes, the council will find themselves lobbied to provide replacement services with subsidy on those formerly-commercial routes, and to my knowledge that hasn't been allowed for in the budgeting and planning.

One of the big issues we have with public transport are the perceptions of heavy and light loading. People who travel on public transport will tell you it's always busy but people who observe vehicles will tend to see it as much quieter.   The ten times a day train from Dormitarytown to WorkCity will be 110% loaded when it arrives in WorkCity at 08:30, and when it leaves at 17:30, but unless it's promoted the rest of the day the other 18 journeys will only load 10% - and that averages out over the day as just 1 seat in 5 taken, even though more than half the passengers will tell you that the train is always full and standing.     20% loading is not, I'm afraid, atypical and it's where Community Rail helps on trains.  Same thing needed on buses.  But where the "Head of Pubic Transport" in a local transport authority stands up when questioned about a commercial route's pricing and viability and says "nothing to do with me - it's commercial" we have a problem of lack of joined up thinking and foresight that there might be a need to help organise a network and partnership, even if not run the buses.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on November 27, 2016, 23:21:48
I'm happy to have given you that opportunity to expound further, grahame.  ;) :D ;D



Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: grahame on November 27, 2016, 23:23:49
And, just for the record, my employer's grocery home delivery service is free (minimum £60 spend).

Home delivery is, of course, really paid for by the customer as part of the markup between what it pays its suppliers and what it charges.  Online searches are vague but reveal markups of between 25% and 40%, but profit margins a tiny part of that by the time you add cost of sales.

I'm happy to have given you that opportunity to expound further, grahame.  ;) :D ;D

Thank you ... hot topic for me!


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: simonw on November 27, 2016, 23:36:11
The advent of new technologies being developed by Uber, and others, allows the exciting prospect of dynamic flexible bus routes to be created.

For example on your bus app, request a bus from one stop to another, and a return, and the app will then collate other bus requests to create routes that match demand.

Whilst it sounds simple, people will effectively prepay for a bus ticket and will have to be at a bus  stop at a scheduled time.

The main benefit of this is that routes will be created to reflect demand.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: grahame on November 28, 2016, 05:16:31
The advent of new technologies being developed by Uber, and others, allows the exciting prospect of dynamic flexible bus routes to be created.

For example on your bus app, request a bus from one stop to another, and a return, and the app will then collate other bus requests to create routes that match demand.

Whilst it sounds simple, people will effectively prepay for a bus ticket and will have to be at a bus  stop at a scheduled time.

The main benefit of this is that routes will be created to reflect demand.

A development of the flexi-route / demand responsive buses?    There are already areas where a call centre co-ordinates requests and routes vehicles accordingly;  where there's a handful of pickups per run / vehicle it should work reasonably well - a sort of super shared taxi.    With bigger vehicles, it's likely to end up with really slow routes and / or the need to have sufficient turn around time at the end of runs to allow for the extreme of a lot of pickups.  However, information systems are these routing systems have been pretty embryonic but develop fast, so let's see.

Does require everyone wanting to use the service to have access via an app, to know at some point ahead of time that they want a ride so it ca be scheduled (perhaps before others are told of the schedule to avoid too many changes) and to have mobile coverage throughout the area to be covered without white-out areas.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: ChrisB on November 28, 2016, 10:58:57
Back to the private operator for these routes then?


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: LiskeardRich on November 28, 2016, 11:33:25
Hampshire and Dorset will be at risk then. First went to the drivers union 6-12 months ago that those areas were in dire financial states.

http://www.route-one.net/articles/Employees/Dorset_strike_drags_on

Quote
...says Mr Lanning, who adds that First has told Unite that the Hampshire and Dorset business is in “dire financial straits.”

The rest rambles on about a driver dispute.

6% profit margin across the entire uk business 2015/16 tax year, which to me sounds a pretty poor return?


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Fourbee on November 28, 2016, 11:38:29
One way of relieving traffic congestion is to get people onto buses of course, but the offer needs to be attractive. The bus fares/parking charges for park and ride need to reflect the extra time/inconvenience factor to those drivers. I would like to see trials where the parking and bus ride were free (and advertised/promoted heavily) and frequencies increaed just to see what the maximum impact could be achieved on congestion relief by this method. Of course that would cost money which just isn't there right now.

IMO routes which frequently suffer from congestion should be split where possible to ensure the service remains punctual on the other sections. Otherwise the frequent core sections will just have buses running round one behind the other followed by large gaps in the service.

I am not sure of the solution to the rural provision of buses. It's a bit like Post Offices. It's a social service provided for the community, but no one wants to pay for it.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: simonw on November 28, 2016, 11:47:15
The problem with current bus systems is that they are not demand driven, and expensive.

All too often it is quicker to walk, drive or get the train to avoid a long tortuous route or two/three bus journeys.

The fragmentation of the bus system 25 years was a disaster, things had to change but the destruction of central local services was not the best plan.

If First Bus want to make more money, provide more routes, more frequent services and bus hubs where people can change buses without waiting for 30 minutes for the next one.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Fourbee on November 28, 2016, 12:13:20
I don't know a lot about deregulation, but my understanding is it led to competition/concentration on the more popular routes (towns/estates/city centres etc.) at the expense of the others (rural).

More could be done with service recovery though through use of technology. Same probably applies to rail. The main thing is good timely information (not always easy to get right as mentioned on another recent thread).


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: ChrisB on November 28, 2016, 14:50:48
If First Bus want to make more money, provide more routes, more frequent services and bus hubs where people can change buses without waiting for 30 minutes for the next one.

Which will encourage even more free pass holders to use them - and we all know that bus companies aren't properly reimbursed for each journey. I seriously can't envisage bus companies chalking up motr than 6% profit margin. The private operators with lower costs may be able to make that work for them, the corporates could too, but shareholders want a higher return.

Train operators only make around3% return they keep telling us, and they make that work, so why not buses too?


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: simonw on November 28, 2016, 15:06:34
The meaning of return is interesting.

If a company can return of 3% of all revenue to Shareholders, then that is a very good business.

Or is a return of 3% something else?


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: ChrisB on November 28, 2016, 15:09:31
No, that's making a net profit on revenue of 3%.

How much they then declare as a dividend is another decision altogether that is taken by the Board. It could be more, or less.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Fourbee on November 28, 2016, 15:12:29
Which will encourage even more free pass holders to use them - and we all know that bus companies aren't properly reimbursed for each journey.

This needs to be looked at, I think fares in general have got to the point where a large proportion of the journeys are effectively being subsidised by people who can ill afford it. There needs to be a balance struck, but IMO the viability of routes is potentially being distorted by this system which is paying a nominal value for the journey.

It is also a question of fairness, some of the journeys are obviously longer distance discretionary ones. I have suggested getting the train to ENCTS passholders in the past, but they would much rather have a free journey above all else.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: LiskeardRich on November 28, 2016, 15:33:16
Which will encourage even more free pass holders to use them - and we all know that bus companies aren't properly reimbursed for each journey.

This needs to be looked at, I think fares in general have got to the point where a large proportion of the journeys are effectively being subsidised by people who can ill afford it. There needs to be a balance struck, but IMO the viability of routes is potentially being distorted by this system which is paying a nominal value for the journey.

It is also a question of fairness, some of the journeys are obviously longer distance discretionary ones. I have suggested getting the train to ENCTS passholders in the past, but they would much rather have a free journey above all else.

A 10 mile journey where I lived in Redruth was £7.50 for a return ticket. Yet I could and did get the Megabus to London for £10 return on several occasions. How is Megabus making such good profits on long distance travel for so little, yet the local bus companies cant?


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: old original on November 28, 2016, 17:24:55
Which will encourage even more free pass holders to use them - and we all know that bus companies aren't properly reimbursed for each journey.

This needs to be looked at, I think fares in general have got to the point where a large proportion of the journeys are effectively being subsidised by people who can ill afford it. There needs to be a balance struck, but IMO the viability of routes is potentially being distorted by this system which is paying a nominal value for the journey.

It is also a question of fairness, some of the journeys are obviously longer distance discretionary ones. I have suggested getting the train to ENCTS passholders in the past, but they would much rather have a free journey above all else.

A 10 mile journey where I lived in Redruth was £7.50 for a return ticket. Yet I could and did get the Megabus to London for £10 return on several occasions. How is Megabus making such good profits on long distance travel for so little, yet the local bus companies cant?

I think it's because everyone pays the £10 on Megabus but probably less than a third of passengers on the local bus pay the full fare.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: JayMac on November 28, 2016, 17:33:22
Which will encourage even more free pass holders to use them - and we all know that bus companies aren't properly reimbursed for each journey.

This needs to be looked at, I think fares in general have got to the point where a large proportion of the journeys are effectively being subsidised by people who can ill afford it. There needs to be a balance struck, but IMO the viability of routes is potentially being distorted by this system which is paying a nominal value for the journey.

It is also a question of fairness, some of the journeys are obviously longer distance discretionary ones. I have suggested getting the train to ENCTS passholders in the past, but they would much rather have a free journey above all else.

Are the bus operators really not being properly reimbursed for ENCTS though? The legislation requires that operators are no better or worse of than if the scheme wasn't in place. If they aren't being properly reimbursed then why isn't the industry lobbying on this point?


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: ChrisB on November 28, 2016, 17:34:41
I've heard of Councils reimbursing a flat-rate per trip, for example....


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: grahame on November 28, 2016, 17:41:30
I think it's because everyone pays the £10 on Megabus but probably less than a third of passengers on the local bus pay the full fare.

And I suspect that it's also because the Megabus providers are able to run fewer and much fuller services.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: LiskeardRich on November 28, 2016, 17:42:01
I recall a director of a struggling bus company saying cornwall council reimbursed him 45p a journey.

There is no way they can reimburse the actual journey fare as the old people just tap the machine a no point stating their destination or whether they're going 1 stop or the full route


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: JayMac on November 28, 2016, 18:13:38
As I said. Legislation requires 'no better or worse off'. If councils aren't reimbursing operators to that end then surely the operators would be very vocal.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: grahame on November 28, 2016, 18:26:22
As I said. Legislation requires 'no better or worse off'. If councils aren't reimbursing operators to that end then surely the operators would be very vocal.

Some of them are vocal behind the scenes ... but where your income on a supported service comes from the local council in a subsidy contract first, ENCTS reimbursement second, and farebox third it's a very brave or foolish operator who risks his contract by bad-mouthing the council in public.

"No better, no worse" is a jungle to work out ...


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Bmblbzzz on November 28, 2016, 19:34:22
Interesting that they're saying changes in shopping patterns are affecting their revenue. It's not an effect I would have thought of, though I suppose it's quite an obvious one – maybe it didn't occur to me because living in the centre of a city (and having other modes of transport available and being fittish and youngish enough to use them, as well as having time and money for them) I would never take a bus to go shopping anyway; the internet shopping I have delivered replaces either a short walk or bike ride or a long train journey or is something I would simply not have bought otherwise.

But it's a good example of the interconnectedness and unexpected knock-on effects of things. People aren't going shopping so much, so it's harder for those who still want to do so, and perhaps more significantly, it's harder for people to get to work, or school, or... anywhere.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: stuving on November 28, 2016, 19:43:51
As I said. Legislation requires 'no better or worse off'. If councils aren't reimbursing operators to that end then surely the operators would be very vocal.

Some of them are vocal behind the scenes ... but where your income on a supported service comes from the local council in a subsidy contract first, ENCTS reimbursement second, and farebox third it's a very brave or foolish operator who risks his contract by bad-mouthing the council in public.

"No better, no worse" is a jungle to work out ...

Isn't it just - it's set out in all its implausible detail here (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-reimbursing-bus-operators-for-concessionary-travel). (Warning - the calculator is only suitable for connoisseurs of madly complicated Excel workbooks, and ditto ditto for the economic theory.)

The latest statistics are published by DfT in their bus statistics, as summarised here (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/560716/concessionary-travel-statistics-year-ending-march-2016.pdf). They don't include appeals, and the latest data I can find is for 2010 (in the last Bulletin on ENCTS published by DCLG):
Quote
26 appeals were lodged in 2010/11; nine of these were subsequently withdrawn and the remaining 17 have now been determined and issued.

If you want just one number from those stats, the reimbursement paid per journey by non-metropolitain English TCAs was 108p. Bearing in mind that's paid for every journey - there's no ENCTS all-day ticket - it's not as bad as I thought.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on November 28, 2016, 20:57:10
Interesting that they're saying changes in shopping patterns are affecting their revenue. It's not an effect I would have thought of, though I suppose it's quite an obvious one – maybe it didn't occur to me because living in the centre of a city (and having other modes of transport available and being fittish and youngish enough to use them, as well as having time and money for them) I would never take a bus to go shopping anyway; the internet shopping I have delivered replaces either a short walk or bike ride or a long train journey or is something I would simply not have bought otherwise.

May I offer an example here of Mrs A, who actually lives in Wrington, North Somerset?  ;)

Mrs A has mobility issues, but still uses the local community bus (which is run by a charity) to travel to Nailsea and back with her companion, once a week.  They don't use the First Bus service, because that only goes from Wrington into Bristol and back.

As she is unable to carry anything on her mobility frame, Mrs A does her actual shopping online, and I then deliver it to her - that is when I tend to meet the fairly lightly loaded First Bus in a country lane ...  ::)

My point is, rural bus services generally don't meet the requirements of many (particularly elderly) residents in such relatively isolated rural communities - so those buses are not used, and the whole service is then vulnerable to being withdrawn altogether as it becomes unviable.

 ???


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: LiskeardRich on November 29, 2016, 11:53:56
As I said. Legislation requires 'no better or worse off'. If councils aren't reimbursing operators to that end then surely the operators would be very vocal.

Would that passenger of traveled otherwise? that bus would have run regardless so it could be argued if the passenger otherwise wouldn't have traveled then the no better or no worse would be zero.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Bmblbzzz on November 29, 2016, 13:12:58
Interesting that they're saying changes in shopping patterns are affecting their revenue. It's not an effect I would have thought of, though I suppose it's quite an obvious one – maybe it didn't occur to me because living in the centre of a city (and having other modes of transport available and being fittish and youngish enough to use them, as well as having time and money for them) I would never take a bus to go shopping anyway; the internet shopping I have delivered replaces either a short walk or bike ride or a long train journey or is something I would simply not have bought otherwise.

May I offer an example here of Mrs A, who actually lives in Wrington, North Somerset?  ;)

Mrs A has mobility issues, but still uses the local community bus (which is run by a charity) to travel to Nailsea and back with her companion, once a week.  They don't use the First Bus service, because that only goes from Wrington into Bristol and back.

As she is unable to carry anything on her mobility frame, Mrs A does her actual shopping online, and I then deliver it to her - that is when I tend to meet the fairly lightly loaded First Bus in a country lane ...  ::)

My point is, rural bus services generally don't meet the requirements of many (particularly elderly) residents in such relatively isolated rural communities - so those buses are not used, and the whole service is then vulnerable to being withdrawn altogether as it becomes unviable.

 ???
In some cases it's got better. I remember my grandfather's delight when, just about the time we'd persuaded him to stop driving because his eyesight really wasn't safe, a bus stop appeared right outside his house in a village a few miles from Bath. Then he looked at the timetable: one bus a day, Tuesdays and Thursdays only. I've just looked it up now and there seem to be several buses a day into Bath (and the village has trains!). But I accept that's an unusual example.

Thing is, why do they put on such inappropriate services? Wouldn't it perhaps be better to start with some research, asking people in the villages where and when they want to travel, then put together a service to meet that need? Inevitably it would be a compromise between conflicting demands but as it is there seems to very little if any consideration of where and when people want to travel.

Edit: I guess another point you wanted to make is that while on the one hand replacement of shopping by home delivery might lead to fewer buses, on the other hand it reduces the need for those buses; so those who already found it hard to go shopping might now be better off in terms of access to shopping, even though it's harder to get to the shops. Swings and roundabouts.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: grahame on November 29, 2016, 14:58:47
Thing is, why do they put on such inappropriate services? Wouldn't it perhaps be better to start with some research, asking people in the villages where and when they want to travel, then put together a service to meet that need? Inevitably it would be a compromise between conflicting demands but as it is there seems to very little if any consideration of where and when people want to travel.

Gosh - where do I start?   

Researching what people want from buses turns out to be very much harder that similar rail research - people simple aren't as engaged / forthcoming, and if you're not careful you end up with strong input from a few lobby groups who may be blinkered and just looking out for their own journey (and sc**w everyone else).

Then network planning as a whole is what you want, but no-one's allowed to do that except in London (and Jersey have done it too) ... commercial companies can't agree a network between them ("cartel") and local authorities can't specify supported services that compete with commercial ones ("unfair competition").     Our option 24/7 team (lead by Lee)  has done quite a big pilot study (it's on the option 24/7 website) that reduces the number of vehicles but increases the journey opportunities ; this year it was ahead of its time, but next year it might be right with the bus services bill progressing ... or it might be too late if too many other services have been lost with a combination of First reducing commercial coverage, another operator doing the same, and 10% cuts in subsidy for those services.

The other thing to bear in mind when planning the services is that you want  /  need to make very best use of vehicles and drivers, and you have to conform to the law on things like driver hours and maximum route length.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Bmblbzzz on November 29, 2016, 15:21:41
Oddly, putting "option 24/7" into a search engine, I get prompted "option 24/7 ibadan". I wouldn't have thought there was much demand for buses from Wiltshire to Nigeria!


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: grahame on November 29, 2016, 15:57:00
Oddly, putting "option 24/7" into a search engine, I get prompted "option 24/7 ibadan". I wouldn't have thought there was much demand for buses from Wiltshire to Nigeria!

http://option247.uk ... which I hope came up in the answers even if not the immediate suggestions.


Title: Re: First Bus looks to reshape business
Post by: Bmblbzzz on November 29, 2016, 16:24:26
Yes it did.  :)



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