Great Western Coffee Shop

With a 15 year franchise and current growth levels how could a franchise specification deal with the overcrowding that would occur if the number of seats were fixed?

Chiltern trains have incraesed their fleet steadily through their franchise - what is in their franchise to make this happen?

Would it be reasonable to put in a condition requireing the winner to provide sufficient capacity at their own expense to meet the demands of sustained levels of overcrowding on any service?

If they have to go cap in hand to the DfT every time they want more stock I can see not much happening. 

Once electrification starts to filter through, building additional electric stock would possibly be more viable and extending electrification might also release more deisel stock. However, is anyone going to buld new deisel stock anytime soon?

Chiltern's existing franchise spec does have an explicit requirement to increase stock to deal with overcrowding - AIUI that is one of the key differences between Chiltern and every other existing franchise spec, partly to do with them being the only long franchise ever let by the SRA before its abolition...

Section 6 page 12, specifically 6.1(a) seems to cover it:


Paul

Commentators such as Roger Ford of Modern Railways repeatedly suggest that no new DMUs are likely to be built for the foreseeable future.

There are many permutations of DMU cascades available following various electrification projects, the recent 'trans-pennine north route' ought to release a fair number of 185s (or 170s) for instance.  Then there are a number of electrification plans within Scotland, which ought to release 158s or 170s.  Also, Thameslink and Crossrail inject massive numbers of EMUs into the total mix, and many EMUs will become available from areas currently electrified for use elsewhere - this may require further electrification to soak up relatively modern EMUs that are additional to the well publicised 319s expected to come to the GW.   At some stage infill third rail projects should become viable, in the case of SN this could release a reasonable fleet of Turbostars (171s).

I think what can be sensibily predicted is that all the existing 'better quality' DMUs with a reasonable life expectancy, such as Turbos and Turbostars, will migrate elsewhere, and indirectly release Pacers while maintaining the steady state numbers, the real difficulty is how you improve capacity as well...

Paul