Great Western Coffee Shop

From The BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-38676406)


[advocate mode=devil]So let's look at an HST with 4.5 millions miles on the clock ... that's 112,500 miles a year.  If it's used for 300 days a year, that's 375 miles a day - 4 hours of running.   I rather suspect that some GWR trains may have done over 7 million miles - which may suggest that there's plenty of life in the Welsh trains yet [/devil]

I did the exact same calculation myself when I read that article and reached the very same conclusion!

Nice attention grabbing headline with the 4.5 million mile figure, but most of those miles are relevant only to the frame and bare body of course - engines, transmission and other running gear and interiors will of course have been changed and refurbished a number of times over the course of 30 years or so (approx age of the sprinters & pacers used by ATW).

Yes, but he's talking about Pacers.  The most primitive passenger trains on the network.  They are supposed to be bounced soon but we poor peasants in the Valleys will simply get someone else's cast-offs.

Even when (if!) the Valley Lines electrification goes ahead we'll still get someone else's left-overs. 

Discrimination and a clear breach of Articles 3, 8 and 14 (http://Articles 3, 8 and 14).

Slam door then are they  ;) ? ...  More seriously, I do understand and largely agree your sentiment; class 483 units are even older, of course. HSTs have plenty of life left in them yet.


Trigger's broom!

Hang on though.  ATW doesn't have any HST's. The vast majority of its stock dates from c1986 (except for the Class 175s).  That's 150,000 miles a year.  85% availability is 308 days, so 487 miles a day.  Difficult to see how a valleys diagram can get remotely near that at around an average of 20 mph, will do well to get to 300 miles.   

Depends what you mean by HST (yes, I know you probably mean IC125, most people do). This page on ATW's website (https://www.arrivatrainswales.co.uk/fleet/) actually calls the class 175s 'High Speed Trains', although their top speed of 100mph isn't sufficient to meet the definition of 'high speed' for existing lines given by Wikipedia (which is 120-124 miles per hour). Interestingly I think ATW also may have the wrong engine listed on that page for their class 158s, elsewhere I've read that ATW's 158s have Perkins engines not the Cummins model listed. Even on Wikipedia's definition, ATW do in fact have HSTs, the class 67s and mrk3 stock are rated for 125mph (actually I'm not sure if the DVT is limited to 110mph or 125, although I don't think ATW use any sections of track with a linespeed of over 100mph anyway).

All that said, the rolling stock situation on Wales & Borders currently looks very difficult to resolve as I see it. Assuming Wikipedia has the fleet sizes correct, there are 12 mrk3s, 30 Pacers, 36 150s and 8 153s to deal with before the 2020 TSI-PRM deadline (the 158s and 175s are probably close to compliant, if not compliant already). Add to this that ATW's fleet is stretched fairly thin (whose isn't, apart perhaps from SWT with their ability to sublease units to other TOCs?) and trains are too short for demand in many cases. The Pacers, 150s and (in their current form, at least) 153s are in my opinion unsuitable for much of the franchise, except that 150s are ok for the ValleyLines. Then there is the further complication that the ValleyLines are supposed to receive electrification (or, god-forbid, tramification*), but it would take a miracle for this to happen by 2020. Thus we need:

• An increase in the size of the long-distance (regional express) fleet (currently 158s, 175s and mark 3s), including major upgrade or replacement of the mrk3s
• A short-term diesel solution for the ValleyLines from 2020 until electrification
• Suitable rolling stock for the rural/branch lines on the franchise (eg. Conwy Valley, Heart Of Wales and Pembroke & Tenby)
• New electric stock following valleys electrification

That last one's the easy bit, since there will probably be sufficient time to get the electric stock ordered while the wires are going up. The other three are really difficult issues.

For regional express, the only new-build option currently on the market seems to be the CAF mrk5 coaches (and are there enough spare 67s to haul them?). A DMU would be more flexible but there isn't a regional express design on the shelf and the time to develop one would probably push us beyond the 2020 deadline. Even an add-on order for more of the outer-suburban CAF DMUs** might not be deliverable by 2020. One way out of this fix could be if the rumoured use of Wessex electrics with diesel locos goes ahead. That would allow replacement of the mark 3 stock and perhaps some lengthening of Manchester services, allowing the 2-car 175s to be cascaded down the 'food chain' ending up perhaps on the Heart Of Wales to take the longest-distance use of 153s and 150s out of the equation.

The short-term diesel requirement for the ValleyLines is perhaps the hardest problem to solve, investment in TSI-PRM mods for 150s and Pacers would probably not be financially viable since they would only be useful until electrification after which they will be surplus to requirements. Converting London Underground stock into DMUs is likely to be similarly expensive for a short-term use. With the number of diagrams required on the ValleyLines, even if the stock wasn't totally unsuitable elsewhere you'd need huge growth elsewhere on the franchise to find a use for all of it.

* I actually think some light-rail conversion might be a good idea, but the hour-long journeys from the heads of the valleys to Cardiff are too long for a tram in my opinion (the only trams I have relatively recent experience of are Manchester's, which have far too few seats (and no toilets) in favour of standing room compared to the current DMUs on the ValleyLines).
** which wouldn't be much use in Wales, you could use them on Cardiff-Cheltenham, Wrexham-Bidston (unless electrification actually happens), Llandudno-Holyhead stopping services, reopened branches around Swansea and perhaps Swansea-Pembroke Dock all-stops but that's about all they would really be suitable for

I was referring to Grahame's post which referred to HST's and divided by 40 years to get 112,500 miles a year. Intercity 125 stock is the only stock which is that old and which could (accurately or not) be referred to as HST.   No ATW stock is older than 32 years old (loco hauled coaches maybe excepted), so my point was how on earth could their stock have clocked up the 4.5m miles quoted over 30 years when most of it trundles around at an average of 20mph.   

Working on a nominal 12 hours in service per day, 7 days a week at 20mph, you could comfortably get to over 3 million miles over 35 years - also remember that almost none of this stock has spent its whole life in Wales and may have been used more intensively on other lines (I can remember when sprinters & pacers first came along in the late 1980's and they were used for quite long distance, fast-ish services at the time, so could've clocked up a hefty mileage in early life).

Reading Rhydgaled's post, I begin to wonder if ATW and/or the Welsh government should try to get hold of a few short formed HST's (has anyone thought about re-gearing them for better acceleration and a lower Vmax?) once released from GWR for the long distance services to be able to cascade or reinforce some of the 175's and older DMU's - surely ScotRail won't be taking all of them?

The original article referred to the trains as being "old and cramped" and chose to use mileage covered as a measure of that; my devil's advocate post looked at that mileage and I suggested that as a mileage for a train, the figure sounded impressive but really wasn't that high.  My comment may have been out of the context of the particular train type, but if it was, then so the quoted figure was out of context too.  Perhaps a better measure would have been the number of station stops made over the years by each train, or the number of passenger journeys (irrespective of length) per carriage.


Fair enough.


Maybe they have, but the Welsh government statement rules that out, doesn't it?   They're even older, they have been reengineered to carry even more seats per carriage, and their mileage is way in excess of that run by the current trains - the measure chosen (and not by me!) as the measure.

Re-engineered HSTs are clearly not wanted in Wales! - the elected representatives know and say so!

I rather suspect that there will be lots of other customers for shortened HSTs - ScotRail won't be taking every unit for sure, but there's a little country called England where shorter units on secondary main lines and longer regional services would provide a home where they would be loved for their smooth ride, and for the extra capacity and services they provided  - age, seats per carriage and miles on the clock overlooked or even generating a fondness for the old ladies.


Fair enough. I will let the Welsh MPs speak for that. If it's the case, it wasn't unique. Allowance for growth in the Greater Western franchise awarded in 2005, designed to run from 2006 to 2016, was for just 0.8% growth.  So a station like Oldfield Park with 150k annual journeys would have risen to 162k passengers in 10 years according to plan.  But actually it reached 315k.  OLF just an example - every single station in the BA postcode area (extended example) has risen way over the 9% increase over 10 years that was planned for.  On GWR, Warminster has done worst with a rise of ... only ... 29%.

http://www.wellho.net/demo/railuse.php?place=BA

ATW profits after tax last year were 6.9%. More than double the average profit of TOCs. That's after trousering around £150 million in subsidy.

Trebles all round at Deutsche Bahn  ::)

For a period ATW were using 37s pulling 4 Mk3s at peak time on the Rhymney Valley line.  But they stopped that.  The step off was an awful lot quicker than a Pacer or a 150 and that's an important factor.

As Rhydygaled says, the issue (no trams thank you) is that the northward Valley Line journeys are all about an hour from Cardiff Central.  It's all uphill to Treherbert/Aberdare/Merthyr/Rhymney and, respectively, 17/13/14/17 stops.  In each case the journey is about 25 miles so there's a lot of stop-start.   

I exclude Maesteg and Ebbw Vale which are partly along the South Wales Main Line.

They stopped that in Dec 2005, just a couple of years after the franchise started. Then they loaned a few sets to FGW who were having their own problems with a lack of stock after the debacle of the 2006 franchise. And to my knowledge have never plugged that gap, leaving lots of expensive platform extensions provided by NR completely unused for the best part of 10 years.

ATW could have been more proactive in trying to find a way around the rolling stock problem, but they have been happy to take the money and let the passengers suffer.

There has been some articles online saying the Welsh Government & ATW have been considering options including loco hauled class 442's ton the marches route to free up class 150/158/175's  to cascade elsewhere in the ATW franchise.

Class 230 D Trains are always supposed to have  been looked at and I wouldn't be surprised if Porterbrook have been in touch with parties   about their class 319 Flex units  certainly these units would be welcomed on the valleys.  These 319 flex units providing they are in gauge for the valley lines network  would be ideal particulary for the Maesteg and Ebbw Vale lines as they would be able to operate in diesel and 25v AC as well as swanline services. This should free up some class 143/150's

Talk of the 442s seems to have disapeared recently

The sub-leased 150s came back from FirstGW I believe, but presumably have been used to permit additional services (eg. Fishguard) rather than extending valleys workings to fill the lengthened platforms.

How many 319d units are likely to be available? Remember there is the best part of 66 units (30 Pacers and 36 150s) to replace by 2020. I suppose some of the Pacers currently run in pairs, so a single 319d could replace a pair of Pacers in some cases, but they will still be in diesel-only mode most of the time (by Jan 2019 probably only the main line PAD to CDF will be wired, so perhaps the only place they could use the pantograph is part of the Cardiff-Ebbw Vale services and then only if they can drop the pantograph on the move). If the 319d units can run as a DMU for the first few years (and if there are enough of them) it would allow TSI-PRM compliance on time and then make use of the wires as they appear. It would also allow Swansea-Bristol services to start before electrification is completed. The worst problem with 319d units is that, with the 800s being bi-mode as well, the electrification might be cut back with sections being left diesel, causing polution, for longer than otherwise might be the case.

Was there much 'official' talk of them coming to Wales anyway? All I've seen is one article in the Western Mail and possibly one in Modern Railways (by the same reporter if I recall correctly). It never seemed a particularly concrete idea to me, but could be great if it happens.

How many 319d units are likely to be available? [/quote]

I would suspect that the bimode 319 units would be use where the bimode capability was of some use, with cascades of diesel stock to diesel only lines.    Wales - with the only operational electric railway so far being the cliff lift at Aberystwyth (? do I have that right ?) would logically benefit from these 319 units indirectly.    For direct bimode use, you might be considering (one or two a bit provocative)

Waterloo - Basingstoke - Salisbury
Paddington - Reading - Newbury - Bedwyn
Paddington - Reading - Didcot - Oxford
Portsmouth Harbour - Southampton - Salisbury - Bristol - Newport - Cardiff
Reading - Wokingham - Guildford - Reigate - Redhill - Gatwick
Bournemouth - Poole - Wareham - Swanage
Paddington - West Ruislip
GWR trains to Brighton
Swindon - Thingley - Westbury - Salisbury - Southampton - Eastleigh - Romsey
Birmingham - Barnt Green - Bromsgrove - Worcester

Just so long as they shoot the Pacers.

I went from my Valleys home to Birmingham and back on Thursday.  That involved 142/170/220/HST/150.  Not surprisingly the HST coaches were by far the most comfortable.  Followed closely by the 150, 

Are the 170s overgeared?  They seem to take ages to get to lock up in the high speed gear.

Eh? "Followed closely by the 150"?  :o Surely there's a huge difference in comfort levels between an IC125 and a 150. On continuously-welded rail, I personally think ATW's Pacers, 150s and 153s are all pretty much equally uncomfortable (and the level of discomfort is quite serious). The XC 170s are almost as bad or the same as well.

But; that require another operator to introduce the 319 bi-modes primarily for ATW's benifit rather than their own. Thus, I would put it in the 'not going to happen' category. I think 23m vehicles are out-of-gauge for the Aberdare/Merthyr/Treherbert routes, and as far as I am aware none of the DMUs expected to go off-lease by 2020 have 20m vehicles. Also, although there's no electrified railway in Wales yet (in a traditional sense, I think the cliff railway is cable-hauled isn't it?), there will be. Initially, any 319s that came to Wales would be running as a straight DMU, but over time the wires would allow them to run routes like Cardiff/Swansea-Cheltenham/Hereford, and also make use of the first stages of ValleyLines electrification (assuming tramification doesn't happen) before the wires reach the heads of the valleys.

Of course, as long as 70 years ago you had the Llandudno and Colwyn Bay Electric Tramway, the Swansea and Mumbles Railway, Cardiff Corporation Tramways and I don't thinks that's a complete list. Whether you call them traditional or not is a subject for a long evening at the bar ... might be safer for us to agree that there are no electrified railways (in the traditional sense of motors on moving vehicles) at present.