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All across the Great Western territory => Looking forward - after Coronavirus to 2045 => Topic started by: stebbo on October 03, 2012, 10:52:58



Title: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: stebbo on October 03, 2012, 10:52:58
So what impact will the shambles over the West Coast re-franchising have on the Great Western franchise bids. I cannot believe the shambles.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: RichardB on October 03, 2012, 11:11:29
Simple answer is that we don't know for definite.

What we do know is that, because the process has been "paused", bids will no longer need to be submitted on 25 October and everything will go on hold pending the results of the inquiry into rail franchising, due to report by 31 December.

If the report recommends significant changes to the franchise process, the whole Great Western franchise competition may need to be restarted.   If they aren't too significant, perhaps things can carry on with the four pre-qualified bidders.

Come what may, I think we now know the new Great Western franchise will not now start on 21 July 2013.  The DfT can already ask FGW to run the existing franchise for a further additional twelve weeks but it could well need much more than that.

As you say, stunning news today. 


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: eightf48544 on October 03, 2012, 11:19:05
Just a thought what if the four pre qualified bidders decided in the light of the WCML shambles that it's not worth wastig their shareholders money  bidding for a franchise.

DaFT couldn't leave the exisitng TOC in charge so DOR would have to take over. Maybe as the Trout says that's what the conspiracy is all about.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: woody on October 03, 2012, 15:18:40
DOR aka BR say no more nod nod wink wink ;) :-X


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Electric train on October 03, 2012, 21:28:12
So what impact will the shambles over the West Coast re-franchising have on the Great Western franchise bids. I cannot believe the shambles.

A big impact as the whole of the current franchising contract process has been brought into question and will have to wait for the results of an internal review, the Transport Select Committee now has justification to question future tendering process and I suspect the PM will want to scrutinise future processes and if some or the senior civil servants in the department have been suspended this could add more delay.

The franchising will now be running through the phony war on the lead up to the next General Election could be uncomfortable for the Government.

Very simple really, and mind boggling that DafT got it wrong. It's reputed that civil servants at DafT have hated Virgin ever since they were forced to renegotiate the first franchise in Virgin's favour (Virgin had them over a barrel after the downgrading of the WC modernisation). So I do wonder whether it was less cock up and more conspiracy.

If "hatred of Virgin" by Civil Servants was the motivator said Civil Servants will be attending "meetings without coffee" and could drawing their pension early


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Oxman on October 18, 2012, 00:43:36
I am not aware that this has been said anywhere else yet, but one of the repercussions of this fiasco would seem to be that the existing franchise holders for the franchises that are currently the subject of the suspended bidding process will be asked to continue to manage the franchise until the investigations are complete, any changes that are required have been implemented, and the bidding process is safe to resume. Just as Virgin are being asked to do for the WCML.

This would mean FGW may see an extension to its contract way beyond April 2013 and way beyond the rumoured July 2013 date that was mooted as the start date for the new Great Western franchise, given the difficulties that existed before the current suspension.

I would not be surprised if FGW are asked to manage the franchise (on a management fee basis, as with Virgin on the WCML) until at least April 2014. This would be a sop to First Group, and might disuade them from legal action. Can anyone suggest an alternative?


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on October 28, 2012, 17:32:16
Concerns are being raised -

From the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-20098441):

Quote
Rail franchise row 'threatens Great Western improvements'

The West Coast Main Line rail franchise row could mean a two-year delay to any train improvements in the south west of England, a passenger group has said.

A decision to award the line to FirstGroup was scrapped because of "technical flaws" in the bidding process, which are being investigated. Bidding for all British franchises is on hold while a review is carried out.

Questions are now being asked about knock-on effects to Great Western area, Travelwatch Southwest said.

Professor Jon Shaw, of the University of Plymouth, said the region was "dependent upon the new franchisee making the improvements". He said: "We're not going to have line electrification or new trains for a long time yet. It was smaller changes that franchisee was expected to deliver which we're gong to see the delay on."

Chris Irwin, from Travelwatch Southwest, said he was expecting about two years of delays, which was "very worrying". He said: "We're going to see a lot of projects not being delivered, such as new rolling stock, the new Paignton to Exeter half-hourly service, and improvements in Cornwall. Passengers are going to suffer."

In Cornwall, retaining the Penzance to London sleeper was also part of the proposed new franchise.

Sarah Newton, Conservative MP for Truro and Falmouth, said she was reassured the government did understand the urgency. She said: "We're trying to second-guess what the review is going to find out. It may conclude that how the franchise is drawn up will proceed. At the moment, it is all just speculation."

Also from the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-20115317):

Quote
West Coast Mainline delay sparks rail improvement fears

Planned improvements to rail services in and around Bristol are at risk as a result of the West Coast Mainline franchise delay, an MP has warned.

Bristol West MP Stephen Williams (Lib Dem) said: "What I think is at risk is all the local improvements that we were looking forward to in Bristol. There were those services on the Severn Beach line, maybe a line out to Portishead, lines across north Bristol and making better use of those railway lines that we already have in Bristol that are closed to passenger traffic," added Mr Williams.

Chris Irwin, from TravelWatch SouthWest, said: "Things that we as passengers would have benefited from, the promised new vehicles, the promised new station improvements, promised minor infrastructure improvements, can make a lot of difference to daily travel. Those have undoubtedly not happened now. When they do happen, there'll be years of delay and congestion to make up for."

Apart from the risk of losing planned local rail improvements, the cost of the delay is also being raised.

"We're right back at the drawing board. In terms of how it's going to move forward it's going to be hard to say how much it's going to cost. Some people say it's just the ^40m the bids themselves cost, but if you talk to people in the industry they say 10 times the cost, but perhaps a 100 times might be a better figure - we might be talking billions," added Mr Irwin.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on October 28, 2012, 21:07:59
A video news report (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-20115734), from the BBC - including quote from Chris Irwin of TravelWatch SouthWest:

Quote
Rail franchise delays could hamper network improvements

The delay in awarding new rail franchises could see knock-on effects for commuters on the First Great Western network.

Passenger groups warn as the operators seek compensation, improvements to the network could suffer.

Errors by the Department for Transport in the West Coast Main Line bidding process means the award of three new franchises across southern England is on hold while a review is carried out.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Andy W on November 06, 2012, 06:54:09
This would mean FGW may see an extension to its contract way beyond April 2013 and way beyond the rumoured July 2013 date that was mooted as the start date for the new Great Western franchise, given the difficulties that existed before the current suspension.

I would not be surprised if FGW are asked to manage the franchise (on a management fee basis, as with Virgin on the WCML) until at least April 2014. This would be a sop to First Group, and might disuade them from legal action. Can anyone suggest an alternative?
There are three things to consider at the present (IMHO)
1). First took the option to terminate the franchise 3 years early to avoid paying over ^800 million in franchise fees.
2). There is the new franchise tendering process which will now take an extended period.
3). There is the electrification prject.

Given that electrification will make any tendering even more fraught I would have thought the best option is to terminate the current franchise as already agreed. Let DOR run the operation throughout the electrification project and restart any new franchise only when the electrification project is completed.

Of course First could pay the ^800 million (less any compensation they are rightfully due) and continue a further 3 years as per the current franchise agreement.

I personally would prefer the DOR option - I'm sure Ollie & co would be just as professional as DOR employees.  ;D


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: The SprinterMeister on November 07, 2012, 20:36:11
Given that electrification will make any tendering even more fraught I would have thought the best option is to terminate the current franchise as already agreed. Let DOR run the operation throughout the electrification project and restart any new franchise only when the electrification project is completed.

Of course First could pay the ^800 million (less any compensation they are rightfully due) and continue a further 3 years as per the current franchise agreement.

I personally would prefer the DOR option - I'm sure Ollie & co would be just as professional as DOR employees.  ;D

The ECML isn't to be honest a very good advert for DOR and I understand DfT are having enough problems getting enough knowledgeable people recruited to run the potential WCML DOR operation.


Probably far better off leaving Firstgroup to run it as a management contract until such time as the bidding process is able to be restarted. That way the trains will continue to run using management skills learn't during the past Umpteen years of First operating trains out of Paddington. Rather than some bunch of no hopers recruited out of an old folks home or something.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on November 07, 2012, 21:51:14
From the Western Morning News (http://www.thisisdevon.co.uk/story-17254717-detail/story.html?):

Quote
Civil servants running railways was a one-way ticket to disaster

Neill Mitchell laments the consequences of legislation in 2005 which reinstated direct state management of our railways, by Ministers and mandarins.

This week, ministers will be considering the findings of the first of the Department for Transport's two internal inquiries into the West Coast Mainline re-franchising fiasco. Hopefully, the outcome will be acknowledgement, at last, that DfT ministers and civil servants must stop meddling in the business minutiae of UK rail management, for which Government is simply not equipped.

The failure of the DfT's franchising process is rooted in the provisions of the ill-conceived Railways Act 2005. A plethora of transport analysts, columnists, lobbyists and passenger representatives sounded the alarm, back in 2004, as the Railways Bill was passing through Parliament.

These concerns were well understood by the then Conservative opposition spokesperson, Tim Yeo MP, who said in the Commons a second reading of the Railways Bill would: "Increase the extent to which politicians and civil servants will interfere in the running of the railways."

Mr Yeo added: "Even in the darkest hours of British Rail, when state control of the railways was unquestioned, there was never a time when so much power was seized by the Secretary of State and his civil servants in the department.We should allow train operators the freedom that they need to respond to consumer demand, and we should take politicians and officials in the department right out of the running of the railways."

As the bill progressed, more warnings were sounded. David Wilshire MP said: "We (Conservatives) do not agree with passing responsibilities, duties and powers upwards, ever further from the franchisees and the passengers, and ever closer to politicians and civil servants."

Intriguingly, while the then Labour Minister of State for Transport MP Tony McNulty's responses were defensive of the competencies of government, even he alluded to the potential for inadequacies, saying: "We have always said that civil servants and ministers are not well placed to deal with the substance or details of such work (specific clauses in the bill) and should not ^ we will not ^ get involved".

Royal Assent was granted and so the Railways Act 2005 came into force, with a huge body of informed opinion still cautioning that the act had effectively re-nationalised the railways by stealth. Thus returning responsibility for the operation of the railway to ministers and civil servants and diminishing much of the private sector's role to that of being mere contracted service providers.

A year later, in July 2006, I wrote in Rail magazine that the evident lack of joined-up government called for the DfT to be dismembered and UK transport policy integrated with the competitiveness and regional development responsibilities of the then DTI. By 2007, the predicted rail franchising problems were becoming reality, most noticeably in respect of the diabolical ruin of the Gatwick Express.

Another of my articles, relating to ever tighter DfT micro-management of rolling stock procurement at that time, followed under the headline: "Danger!! The Civil Service Express is approaching (or is it?!)". In March 2008, Rail magazine itself highlighted widespread complaints across the rail industry that the DfT was "guilty of the worst kind of meddling, control-freakery and micro-management". In November 2008, Rail carried a further feature reporting that DfT was being branded by senior industry players as "arrogant, stupid and ridiculous". Its editor Nigel Harris said: "We have an out-of-touch, arrogant department which takes advice from no one, knows all the answers and dismisses all inconvenient truths. Well, that can only go on for so long ^ and senior railwaymen have finally had enough." As, indeed, has been so clearly signified by Richard Branson's recent action in seeking a judicial review of the DfT's incompetent process for awarding the West Coast Mainline franchise.

Sadly, the chickens have come home to roost, seemingly at what could prove to be astronomic cost to the taxpayer. Particularly so if all past franchising assumptions and methodology applied by DfT under the Railways Act 2005 should now be subjected to similar scrutiny by winners and unsuccessful bidders alike, not least in respect of the Gatwick Express saga.

The message has to be that undue meddling has cost both the DfT and the taxpayer dear. It must stop. Civil servants do have a role to play in formulating UK strategic rail development and funding priorities on behalf of the taxpayer, but the day-to-day business management of the railways should be left to those who know best ^ the operators and customers. As for those who advocate re-nationalisation, surely this Whitehall farce speaks conclusively for itself!


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: trainer on November 07, 2012, 22:27:50
The above is a most intriguing article and shows the tendency to polarise the arguments in discussing the railways into the previous nationalisation model and the cry for almost total freedom of the market as business people know best.  IMHO the lawyers who inhabit the Westminster village (some of whom are elected as MPs) created a lawyers paradise in the current franchising system and the WCML debacle must seem like Heaven to them.  Returning to State control where the Treasury gainsays every attempt to improve and innovate is not the answer. First and Virgin, amongst others have done much to improve my experience as a customer passenger (although staring at a pillar instead of out of a window in a claustrophobic seat is excluded from that assessment).  I have a problem with profits gained because my taxes have subsidised a company leaving the the railway industry to go into private shareholders' pockets, but at least the companies provide me with a service and that I can use and complain about if need be.  I have no idea what the lawyers fees are purchasing or whether I am getting value for money, but I do know, from experience, that as soon as the Law gets involved, nothing gets any quicker and a a journey from Portishead to Bristol by train is disappearing into a distant future because of an over complex franchising system.  Cut the number of contracts within the industry and a fortune will be released, I suspect, to be spent on all sorts of loveliness - like seats with a view and faster decision making.

If I have offended any lawyers, I apologise.  I have no money so litigation will be fruitless.  ;)


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Electric train on November 08, 2012, 06:56:39
My guess on the GW franchise, DfT will broker a deal with First to manage the GW for a period of time, in much the same way they have with Virgin, First handed the keys in early (iaw the T & C's of the franchise) to avoid paying in their view an excessive fee.

DfT will not want to run a franchise unless they really have to its hard work for them and exposes the Dept to risk adverse publicity as well as financial


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on November 08, 2012, 12:07:27
in much the same way they have with Virgin

Has that decision been made? Only news I've seen are the press releases from both the DfT and Virgin on 15th October saying they are in negotiation. I've not seen any announcement that an agreement has been reach for Virgin to continue operating the ICWC franchise.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Southern Stag on November 08, 2012, 13:02:20
Well it will either be Virgin or no trains operating from December. There simply isn't time now for anybody else to take over.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Andy W on November 09, 2012, 10:43:57
Probably far better off leaving Firstgroup to run it as a management contract until such time as the bidding process is able to be restarted. That way the trains will continue to run using management skills learn't during the past Umpteen years of First operating trains out of Paddington. Rather than some bunch of no hopers recruited out of an old folks home or something.
I thought all operational staff would be TUPE'd across so I can't really see why there should be such an issue. Surely the only change may be to HR, Finance etc. There will be little strategic development until electrification is completed which is where any new franchise should put in their effort.
First handed the keys in early (iaw the T & C's of the franchise) to avoid paying in their view an excessive fee.
First handed back the keys early to avoid paying the fee that they bid to win the franchise >:(. If it is excessive they only have themselves to blame - and it looks like they were pulling the same stunt to win the WCML.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: John R on November 09, 2012, 11:07:44
First are not handing in the keys early - they are not exercising a legal option given to them to continue for a further three years beyond the original expiry date. There's a huge difference, but one that is lost on most people. The WC franchise didn't contain such an option, and if First had subsequently chosen to exit early that would be a default, so a completely different position.

 


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: paul7575 on November 09, 2012, 11:36:05
I thought all operational staff would be TUPE'd across so I can't really see why there should be such an issue. Surely the only change may be to HR, Finance etc.

HR and finance staff should also be TUPEd across to a new TOC.  There's no significant difference - if you are salaried staff you are entitled to TUPE protection, it isn't just operational staff.

(Although some people even erroneously think TU stands for trade union - I'm assuming you don't...)

Paul


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Andy W on November 09, 2012, 14:42:08
First are not handing in the keys early - they are not exercising a legal option given to them to continue for a further three years beyond the original expiry date. There's a huge difference, but one that is lost on most people. The WC franchise didn't contain such an option, and if First had subsequently chosen to exit early that would be a default, so a completely different position. 
Sorry John that is factually incorrect. They are exercising a legal break to terminate the contract early. There is no extension in the contract merely an option (unilateral I might add) for early termination.
This was discussed in an earlier thread. The contract was bid over the full term and not the forshortened period. Read the contract (appendix 18 if memory serves me correctly) if you don't believe me.
I thought all operational staff would be TUPE'd across so I can't really see why there should be such an issue. Surely the only change may be to HR, Finance etc.

HR and finance staff should also be TUPEd across to a new TOC.  There's no significant difference - if you are salaried staff you are entitled to TUPE protection, it isn't just operational staff.

(Although some people even erroneously think TU stands for trade union - I'm assuming you don't...)

Paul
Hi Paul thanks for that - I realise TUPE is nothing to do with trades unions.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: mjones on November 09, 2012, 15:03:22
Exercising a legal break in the contract is not the same as handing the keys early. The contract allowed for them to return the keys at that stage.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: John R on November 11, 2012, 18:39:05
Exactly - handing the keys in early is breaking a contract, exercising an option to terminate it is not.

Andy W - I'll admit I haven't read the contract, but whether it is written as a 10 year contract with an option to terminate at 7 years or a 7 year contract with an option to extend for 3 years makes not a jot of difference legally - it's exactly the same thing, (and I think we agree on that).  I expect there are practical reasons why it is written as the former.

If the DfT were stupid enough to give the franchisee the option to terminate early, they can't complain if they take up the option (and to be fair I haven't heard any comment that says that they regard First's action in any way underhand or inappropriate).


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Andy W on November 13, 2012, 14:25:06
Andy W - I'll admit I haven't read the contract, but whether it is written as a 10 year contract with an option to terminate at 7 years or a 7 year contract with an option to extend for 3 years makes not a jot of difference legally - it's exactly the same thing, (and I think we agree on that).  I expect there are practical reasons why it is written as the former.
Hi John, sorry I don't agree. First tendered for a 10 year contract with a fee of (approx) ^1billion. That is the full term contract. They did not bid for a 7 year contract for a fee of (approx) 200 million with an extension of 3 years for ^800 million.
If the DfT were stupid enough to give the franchisee the option to terminate early, they can't complain if they take up the option (and to be fair I haven't heard any comment that says that they regard First's action in any way underhand or inappropriate).
I am complaining as a tax payer (which I presume most people who read this forum are) that First have got out of paying over ^800 million THAT THEY BID TO WIN THE CONTRACT That is over ^10 for every man woman and child in the country!
DfT are demonstrably out of their depth (as you say stupid) - frankly not fit for purpose - but First may well be legal but are also wholly immoral in this respect (IMHO). And we pick up the bill!!!


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Super Guard on November 13, 2012, 16:12:16
On the other hand, whether you think it is immoral or not, could Firsts' Directors have been deemed legally negligent, if they'd approved the extension to the franchise and put the Group in a worse financial position because of it?


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: grahame on November 13, 2012, 17:37:47
Andy W - I'll admit I haven't read the contract, but whether it is written as a 10 year contract with an option to terminate at 7 years or a 7 year contract with an option to extend for 3 years makes not a jot of difference legally - it's exactly the same thing, (and I think we agree on that).  I expect there are practical reasons why it is written as the former.
Hi John, sorry I don't agree. First tendered for a 10 year contract with a fee of (approx) ^1billion. That is the full term contract. They did not bid for a 7 year contract for a fee of (approx) 200 million with an extension of 3 years for ^800 million.

Surely where a contract is written such that it can end in a planned way after either 7 years or 10 years, it's up to all parties who are signatories to that contract that they're happy with the terms whichever of the two end points is the one that comes about.  So First needed to be happy with the deal for their shareholders, and the DfT happy with the deal for the government and taxpayer.

A slight qualification to that ... if one (or indeed) both parties can / could unilaterally select the shorter contract, then I don't see that the party/ies with the option of calling halt at the earlier date needed to be happy with the terms, conditions, fees of the potential longer contract.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Trowres on November 13, 2012, 23:21:53
I believe that unilateral termination by FGW was allowed. In this respect, the current franchise differed from other of the period (eg SWT). Why, I do not know.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Andy W on November 14, 2012, 06:51:06
On the other hand, whether you think it is immoral or not, could Firsts' Directors have been deemed legally negligent, if they'd approved the extension to the franchise and put the Group in a worse financial position because of it?

Hi SG you're probably correct in which case it never was a 10 year franchise in reality.

A slight qualification to that ... if one (or indeed) both parties can / could unilaterally select the shorter contract, then I don't see that the party/ies with the option of calling halt at the earlier date needed to be happy with the terms, conditions, fees of the potential longer contract.

Interestingly it is bilateral if DfT wanted early termination after 7 years  (on the grounds of poor performance) but unilateral if First terminated at the 7 year point!!! It really beggars belief the way the contract was drawn up. Were all of the other bidders offered these terms I wonder?

However what's done is done - but given that termination is now in effect I see no reason whatsoever why First should have any involvement after that date hence my suggestion that is is run by DOR while the new franchise is negotiated, electrification is completed etc.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: IndustryInsider on November 14, 2012, 11:33:18
Were all of the other bidders offered these terms I wonder?

That would be my question as well!


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on November 15, 2012, 20:56:42
Were nearly all prvious contracts the same?

Yes, nearly all had (have) the chance to walk away.  This is due to the backloading element where they would hand over big bonus to the DFT if the last years of the franchise produced the immense growth that they predicted that enabled them to get the contract in the first place.  This is why the GNER people walked away and why First did the same here.

If they have all tried it on again this time, clearly the DFT will require new bids on a new basis, under whatever arrangements the Inquiry comes up with.   Of course I assume that will cost the taxpayer because the bidders will rightly claim their time has been wasted until now by the DFT.

That's if they bother.

 


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Southern Stag on November 15, 2012, 22:01:18
This is why the GNER people walked away and why First did the same here.
The GNER situation was quite different. The parent company, Sea Containers were in financial trouble and they couldn't back the franchise any more, AFAIK the government asked them to surrender the franchise because they were basically going bankrupt.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Andy W on November 16, 2012, 07:38:02
Yes, nearly all had (have) the chance to walk away.  This is due to the backloading element where they would hand over big bonus to the DFT if the last years of the franchise produced the immense growth that they predicted that enabled them to get the contract in the first place.  This is why the GNER people walked away and why First did the same here. So Branson was spot on in his complaint.
So to be very clear what you are saying is that most bids are backloaded. The TOC is fully aware this is the case and (nearly) all franchises have an option to terminate the franchise in order to avoid paying the fee that they tendered.
While I find it very hard to believe - (Paul you seem to be very knowledgeable is this accurate?) then Super Guard's point is very valid
On the other hand, whether you think it is immoral or not, could Firsts' Directors have been deemed legally negligent, if they'd approved the extension to the franchise and put the Group in a worse financial position because of it?
So is there a claim that the directors of other TOCs have been negligent to their shareholders in not terminating contracts early?
Finally -
This is why the GNER people walked away and why First did the same here.
The GNER situation was quite different. The parent company, Sea Containers were in financial trouble and they couldn't back the franchise any more, AFAIK the government asked them to surrender the franchise because they were basically going bankrupt.
spot on GNER surrendered their franchise because Sea Containers were basically bust!


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: John R on November 16, 2012, 08:16:48
No, the majority of franchises haven't had the same structure of the FGW one. In fact, I can't think of any that were set up in the same way, but I may be wrong.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: grahame on December 07, 2012, 17:07:39
So where does that leave the Greater Western tender process, still in the sidings or back on track?



Presumably on hold awaiting the findings of the Brown review which is looking into the franchising system in general.

Confirmed ... http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/story-17525335-detail/story.html says:

Quote
A DfT spokesman said: ^No decision on the Great Western franchise will been taken until we have considered the Brown report, but the Great Western invitation to tender states that each bidder shall be responsible for all costs, incurred whether or not the bid process is varied or terminated.^


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on January 10, 2013, 13:10:30
Hopefully the restart for GW franchise can now be soon.  In response to a query I deposited recently elsewhere on customer care, I read this in Brown's report (which I have just collected from the WY metro site).

 1.17 Bids should also be explicitly scored on their proposals for improving service quality for passengers and their approach to management. Their score should form part of the evaluation process. I recommend that a weight of 20-40% (which will vary depending on the nature of the franchise) should be attached to quality in the final evaluation. This should include bidders^ proposals to invest in training and workforce development and engagement. National Passenger Survey (NPS) scores, which directly reflect what passengers say, should be more closely reflected in franchise commitments and subsequent monitoring of franchise performance.

If you recall, I was wondering how a new entrant could compete with those who have a track record.  I don't know whether this answers that point?   ???



Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on January 10, 2013, 20:23:12
I'm not aware of any previous franchise invitation to tender that has included a requirement that any bidder must have a track record - nor, indeed, that any bidder with any sort of track record (good or bad) has been judged on it.

Indeed, I would have thought it would be discriminatory to include any requirement for a potential bidder to have a track record: that would exclude any new entrants to the process - particularly those from the European Union - and would be anti-competitive and therefore unlawful.  ::)


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ellendune on January 10, 2013, 20:47:18
But since almost all the staff concerned are TUPE'd across, it is improving customer service from the last franchisee.  So there is no discrimination.



Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Super Guard on January 11, 2013, 12:27:42
The DfT had a requirement to tell FGW that they were needed to continue the franchise in the short term by the end of December 2012, and FGW have agreed to postpone this deadline until the end of January, so the Government reports into franchising can be announced etc.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on January 15, 2013, 21:51:23
From the Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9804014/Government-faces-challenge-to-recruit-vital-rail-experts.html):

Quote
Government faces 'challenge' to recruit vital rail experts

Attracting private sector rail experts to run government franchise teams in the wake of the West Coast Main Line fiasco will be a ^challenge^, the chairman of Eurostar told MPs.

Richard Brown, who last week published a report into the future of rail franchising, warned lower pay and the limitations of working in the civil service will make it difficult for the Government to recruit skilled staff from the private sector.

The Department of Transport has been told to strengthen its teams working on multi-billion pound rail contracts after it bungled the competition for the West Coast franchise last year - at a ^55m cost to the taxpayer.

Mr Brown told the Commons Transport Select Committee there were plenty of experts within the rail industry with experience of dealing with complex rail franchises. However, persuading those individuals to enter the civil service wouldn^t be easy, he suggested.

^I think there is a particular challenge for the department [of Transport], as there would be for any other government department, in getting those sorts of people to come and work within a civil service structure,^ Mr Brown said. ^They [the DfT] will have to take some difficult decisions about terms and conditions and pay, and give reassurances they will be given the headroom to actually deliver what the government want.^

Mr Brown was asked by the Transport Secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, to review how major contracts to run Britain^s railways should be handled, following the discovery of ^significant errors^ in the way the DfT managed the franchise competition for the West Coast Main Line.

The Eurostar chairman concluded the ^quickest and simplest^ way to resolve the crisis would be to leave responsibility with the DfT, despite calls for the creation of an arms-length body that could circumvent some of the pay restrictions within the civil service.

Mr Brown stressed to MPs on Tuesday that there is no need for a complete overhaul of the system. ^There is no need to go down the road of restructuring the industry,^ he said.

The Transport Secretary is shortly expected to announce how the Government intends to proceed with the three rail franchise competitions suspended in the wake of the West Coast debacle, which cover Great Western, Thameslink and Essex Thameside train services.

Mr Brown said he expects train companies to be asked for far more risk capital in future to insure against the possibility of defaulting on a franchise.
However, he said the Government must tolerate the fact there will always be a risk train companies could hand back the keys to a franchise. This happened in 2009 when National Express said it could no longer afford to run the East Coast Main Line.

^You have to accept that happens because the cost of insuring that will never happen^is an uneconomic cost,^ Mr Brown said.

He added: ^If you are asking private sector bidders to bid, the nature of the private sector is that from time to time you do get failures.^


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: stebbo on February 22, 2013, 17:04:35
The comment about the Civil Service attracting private sector workers reminds me of a job offer I received from BT back in the 1980s. They offered me a slightly better salary than I was getting in my existing job but I had a company car which was worth a bit. When I pointed this out, I was told "Well we do season ticket loans and our canteen is subsidised". (I never did go to work for BT).


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on February 26, 2013, 17:33:27
From the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21577826):

Quote
West Coast Main Line franchise fiasco 'to cost at least ^50m'

A "complete lack of common sense" in the Department for Transport's handling of the West Coast Main Line franchise deal will cost taxpayers "^50m at the very least", MPs have said.

The cost might be "very much larger", the Public Accounts Committee warned. The committee accused the department of making "fundamental errors" and failing to learn from "previous disasters".

A spokesman said the department had taken steps to ensure there could be no repeat of the failure.

But Labour accused ministers of "hiding behind their civil servants".

Explaining why the total cost might prove to be higher than previous estimates, Labour MP Margaret Hodge, who chairs the committee, said: "If you factor in the cost of delays to investment on the line, and the potential knock-on effect on other franchise competitions, then the final cost to the taxpayer will be very much larger."

'Astonished'

Unveiling her committee's latest report, Mrs Hodge said: "The franchising process was littered with basic errors. The department yet again failed to learn from previous disasters, like the Metronet contract. It failed to heed advice from its lawyers. It failed to respond appropriately to early warning signs that things were going wrong. Senior management did not have proper oversight of the project. Cuts in staffing and in consultancy budgets contributed to a lack of key skills. The project suffered from a lack of leadership. There was no single person responsible from beginning to end and, therefore, no one who had to live with the consequences of bad policy decisions. For three months, there was no single person in charge at all. Not only that, there was no senior civil servant in the team responsible for the work, despite the critical importance of this multi-billion pound franchise."

The committee had been "astonished" that the Department for Transport's top civil servant had been "told he could not see all the information which might have enabled him to challenge the processes, although it was one of the most important tasks for which the department is responsible".

'Stench'

Mrs Hodge added: "Given that the department got it so wrong over this competition, we must feel concern over how properly it will handle future projects, including HS2 and Thameslink [rail routes]. The department needs to get its house in order and put basic principles and practices at the heart of what it does, with an appropriately qualified and senior person in charge of the project throughout and an accessible leadership team ready and willing to hear and act on warning signs."

In October, the government scrapped its decision to award the ^5bn franchise to FirstGroup.

The mistakes in the West Coast process came to light after rival bidder Virgin Trains launched a legal challenge against the decision. Virgin will continue running the service until November 2014, when a new long-term franchise will begin.

In December, the National Audit Office calculated that there would be a "significant cost to the taxpayer" as a result of the fiasco.

It said costs for staff, advisers, lawyers and the two reviews into the fiasco added up to ^8.9m, on top of the estimated ^40m it will take to reimburse firms for the cost of their bids.

Bob Crow, the leader of the RMT union, which represents rail workers, called for wholesale renationalisation of the railways.

"The stench from the fall-out of the West Coast franchise continues to hang over Britain's transport industry as it becomes clearer with every examination that the ministers responsible for this shambles could not be trusted to run a whelk stall let alone multi-billion government contracts," he said.

'Strengthening oversight'

"Privatisation is a corrosive and expensive political project doomed to repeated and costly failure, twice on the East Coast and now on the West," he added.

"Fiddling with processes won't work. It's the whole, rotten policy that needs dumping with a return to public ownership."

But a Department for Transport spokesman said: "The independent Laidlaw inquiry published in December identified the unique and exceptional circumstances which led to failures in the West Coast franchising programme and crucially what steps the department should take to prevent this from happening again. The department has accepted all the recommendations and has taken immediate steps by bringing together all rail activity under a single director general and recruiting a senior director to lead the franchising programme, as well as improving internal governance and strengthening oversight and accountability. Not only will these reinforce the franchising process but will also protect rail infrastructure projects such as HS2 and the biggest programme of rail electrification."

Maria Eagle, the shadow transport secretary, called on Prime Minister David Cameron to "take responsibility for the rail franchising fiasco, instead of allowing ministers to hide behind their civil servants."

"The government must accept the finding of the Public Accounts Committee that it was the short-sighted decision by ministers to axe external audits of multi-billion pound contracts that ended up with at least ^50m of taxpayers' money going down the drain," she added.

"It is a disgrace that every politician responsible for the bungled franchise deal has either remained in the cabinet or been promoted to it."

Richard Hebditch of Campaign for Better Transport, which fights for better public transport, said the report showed the biggest problem was the franchising system itself.

"Franchising needs to be completely reformed so that what counts are improvements to the service on offer, rather than complex calculations of profit and loss that don't stack up," he said.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on March 08, 2013, 05:03:55
From the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21704682):

Quote
Great Western franchise: Rail firms start legal action

By Richard Westcott
BBC transport correspondent


Four train companies have started legal proceedings against the government after it cancelled the bidding process for a rail franchise and then refused to pay compensation.

Ministers ditched bids to run the Great Western rail franchise in January, saying they wanted a rethink.

FirstGroup, Stagecoach, Arriva and National Express have gone to court in an effort to get their money back.

If they are successful, it could cost the government ^40m.

When the government called off the Great Western bidding process it said it wanted to re-evaluate it following the high profile collapse of the West Coast mainline deal a few months before.

The Great Western franchise operates between south Wales and London.

Options open

I have learned that there will now be a "stay" in the legal proceedings until the end of March, giving both sides the chance to thrash out a compromise. So there is a way to go yet before this gets legally nasty.

But these companies are very angry that they will not be compensated for what they see as the government's mistakes.

Ministers are compensating bidders who lost out on that defunct West Coast deal, and that, say the rail firms, is inconsistent and unfair.

Each firm will have spent about ^10m on the bidding process for the Great Western franchise, hiring large teams of experts and lawyers to put together their submissions.

Nigel Harris, the editor of Rail Magazine, says: "A refusal to refund may conform to the letter of the contract rules but utterly fails the 'right thing' test."

"It makes no sense to penalise innocent bidders - especially when you want and need them to re-bid!"

I am told it does not mean the rail companies will definitely sue the Department for Transport, but it is certainly piling on some legal pressure, and giving them the option of going to court if both sides cannot agree a deal.

However, lawyer Patrick Twist at Pinsent Masons, does not think it will get that far,

"By lodging papers with the High Court the bidders are keeping open their ability to pursue the Department for Transport for the costs they wasted on bidding for the cancelled Greater Western franchise procurement," he said.

"The department will strongly resist any claim and the same bidders will have the opportunity to rebid when the franchise is reprocured. So it would be surprising if this really does lead to litigation."

Further claims?

At the moment, the government does not look ready to budge.

In January, Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin said: "In keeping with the relevant invitations to tender, which made clear that bidders are responsible for their own costs, the Secretary of State does not believe it would be appropriate to reimburse bidders."

In fact, if you wade through the Invitation to Tender (not an easy read I grant you), this is what it actually says: "Each bidder shall be responsible for all costs, expenses and liabilities incurred by it in connection with the Great Western franchise letting process, whether or not its bid and/or associated negotiations are ultimately successful or the process is subsequently varied in any way or terminated."

It is impossible to say where all of this is heading. But if ministers do end up compensating these firms, even if it is just for a fraction of their costs, they can expect a lot of flack for the fact that yet more taxpayers money has gone on compensation, rather than improving the trains or cutting fares.

Remember, the government has already spent ^50m (and counting) cleaning up the West Coast mess.

There is also the possibility that it will open the door to claims from those companies affected by long delays to two other big franchises, Essex Thameside and Thameslink, Southern and Great Northern. Both have been postponed for a couple of years in the wake of the West Coast problems.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: grahame on March 08, 2013, 17:05:09
And the view from Christian Wolmar

http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2013/03/a-bluff-that-the-train-companies-can-only-lose/

I can't help wondering if at the end of the day, it'll be you and me (the British taxpayer) or you and me (the train traveller) who ends up footing the bill for all the aborted bids - by whatever circuitous route we pay.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on March 08, 2013, 18:06:28
I have to agree with Christian Wolmar. It would seem that the TOCs are on a hiding to nothing. Whilst it was the DfT who cocked up the ICWC franchise which then led to the cancellation of the Greater Western tender, it is also the DfT who have a fairly watertight clause in the bid process that allows them to do what they've done.

FirstGroup, I feel, have to tread particularly carefully. It is they who are in negotiation with the DfT over the two year management contract for the Greater Western franchise that will run from October 2013 until the next franchise's delayed start date. Negotiating with the DfT whilst also taking them to court.... that can't be a particularly harmonious state of affairs.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ellendune on March 08, 2013, 19:20:56
And the view from Christian Wolmar

http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2013/03/a-bluff-that-the-train-companies-can-only-lose/

I can't help wondering if at the end of the day, it'll be you and me (the British taxpayer) or you and me (the train traveller) who ends up footing the bill for all the aborted bids - by whatever circuitous route we pay.

It will be anyway - since they will have to factor it into the profit on future bids if they don't get it from the DfT.

I have to agree with Christian Wolmar. It would seem that the TOCs are on a hiding to nothing. Whilst it was the DfT who cocked up the ICWC franchise which then led to the cancellation of the Greater Western tender, it is also the DfT who have a fairly watertight clause in the bid process that allows them to do what they've done.

FirstGroup, I feel, have to tread particularly carefully. It is they who are in negotiation with the DfT over the two year management contract for the Greater Western franchise that will run from October 2013 until the next franchise's delayed start date. Negotiating with the DfT whilst also taking them to court.... that can't be a particularly harmonious state of affairs.

Should be fairly safe while they are all going for it.  The problem comes if they break ranks.

 


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: didcotdean on March 08, 2013, 19:56:39
Over the days when I was regularly involved with tendering to government / quasi government I have lost count of the number of times tendering was aborted, right up to just before contract signing. Sometimes there were good reasons behind it, mostly there weren't. Worst was when the initiator had moved on during the process or that they had never actually secured the budget for the work but went ahead in hope they would have before having to contract. A cost of business maybe, but it has to be paid for in the end.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on March 10, 2013, 23:18:20
Not a great surprise. A certain union leader has given his opinion on the current turn of events.

From the Western Daily Press (http://www.thisisbath.co.uk/story-18366069-detail/story.html?#axzz2NBJx5oJy):

Quote
Snubbed train companies ^acting like lottery losers^

Four train companies trying to sue the Government for halting the process to bid for the right to run the West^s railways have been accused of acting like ^lottery losers demanding the price of their ticket back^.

Union leaders are furious that transport firms Stagecoach, Arriva, National Express and the current franchise holders First are taking the Government to court and are demanding as much as ^40 million in costs.

Earlier this year, the Government called a halt to the process where train companies bid for the franchise to run services out of Paddington to the West Country and South Wales, following the debacle surrounding the aborted process for the West Coast mainline, which runs from London to the North West. Ministers said they wanted to re-evaluate the process for the Great Western line ^ which serves London to Swindon, Bath, Bristol, south Wiltshire and Somerset ^ as a result.

The four companies that had submitted bids for the Great Western franchise claim they have spent around ^10 million submitting their cases, which involved hiring experts, lawyers and compiling their submissions.

Their case will be heard at the end of the month, giving a couple of weeks for the Government and the train companies to thrash out a deal.

The decision by the firms to sue has not impressed rail union leader Bob Crow, who said: ^These rail companies are acting like a lottery loser demanding the price of their ticket back. They are quite happy with the casino franchising process until they draw a losing hand. This latest nonsense will end up costing the taxpayer tens of millions of pounds and yet again exposes the insanity of rail privatisation. Only full renationalisation of our railways can end this circus.^

The rail companies appear to be facing an uphill battle in getting their costs back ^ the original invitations to tender included the line: ^Each bidder shall be responsible for all costs, expenses and liabilities incurred by it in connection with the Great Western franchise letting process, whether or not its bid and/or associated negotiations are ultimately successful or the process is subsequently varied in any way or terminated.^

The Great Western main line is about to undergo the biggest renovation in 100 years, with electrification starting at London and arriving in Bristol by the end of the decade. But the line is also the most overcrowded in Britain and has suffered a series of crippling delays caused by signalling problems, as well as problems caused by severe weather and flooding in Devon and north of Bristol.

The tagline for ATOCs 'National Rail' brand is, "Britain's train companies working together". At least with this court action the TOCs are abiding by that sentiment.  ::)


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: TerminalJunkie on March 11, 2013, 08:57:46
It might get interesting in the (admittedly, unlikely) event that the TOCs win - after all, if they can get a refund when the conditions say they are not entitled to one, there might be a flood of similar claims from passengers who held advance tickets they didn't use...


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on March 14, 2013, 19:03:16
From the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-21783548):

Quote
Rolling stock fear over West of England rail franchise

Rail services in the West of England will stagnate following the collapse of the West Coast mainline franchise deal, regeneration experts fear.

The West of England Partnership said it had been told in government talks there would be no investment in rolling stock during an interim two-year franchise.

In October, the government scrapped its decision to award the ^5bn franchise to FirstGroup.

The government declined to comment on the partnership's claims.

However, a spokesman for the Department for Transport said it would negotiate an additional two-year current with the current operator in 2014 and it would seek the "best deal for taxpayers while maximising additional benefits for rail passengers".

"The longer-term proposals for the Great Western franchise will be set out in the spring," he added.

The WEP supports economic growth and investment in the region and represents the four unitary authorities for Bristol, Bath and Weston-super-Mare.

It said during talks the DfT "indicated there will be no service enhancements or additional rolling stock for the West of England area".

Julia Dean, from the WEP, said they were "disappointed" as rail travel was growing in popularity and there was already over-capacity on some lines.

Rob Dixon, from The Friends of Suburban Bristol Railways (FOSBR), said the decision would result in overcrowding along popular routes such as the Severn Beach line, which now attracts more than one million people a year.

He said: "We are concerned the railway is effectively being run from London whereas we want it run by an integrated transport authority based in our area, because we think people around here know what people want."

A spokesman for FirstGroup confirmed it was in discussions with the DfT about the opportunity to continue the franchise for a further two years beyond October 2013.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on March 14, 2013, 21:31:33
Julia Dean, WEP, has presumably been misquoted.   :(


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on March 25, 2013, 20:53:40
From the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21933080):

Quote
Rail franchising: Ministers to restart process

The rail franchising process is to restart, the government will say on Tuesday, six months after the collapse of the West Coast deal stopped it.

Ten of the country's 16 franchises are due for renewal before the general election, expected to be held in 2015, and a timetable will be set out.

Ministers will prioritise the East Coast line deal, BBC transport correspondent Richard Westcott says. It has been in public hands since National Express gave it up in 2009.

It is thought other franchise contracts will be extended to give officials more time to deal with the process.

Rail franchising was put on hold last year after a decision to award the UK's multi-billion-pound West Coast Main Line rail franchise to FirstGroup was scrapped by the government.

The transport secretary found there were "significant technical flaws" in the bidding process because of mistakes by Department for Transport staff and three civil servants were suspended.

Virgin Trains, which was given the right to run the West Coast line for a further two years while the system is sorted out, is understood to be keen to bid for the new East Coast contract.

Its contract to run the West Coast is also expected to be extended by another two years.

Any new franchise deals will put the focus more on passengers' views and satisfaction, our correspondent added.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on March 25, 2013, 21:14:46
I hate this 'will say' reporting.  I can only assume the Speaker has given up.  I thought he was going to come down like a ton of bricks on this discourtesy.

On the subject, note the last sentence.

'Any new franchise deals will put the focus more on passengers' views and satisfaction, our correspondent added.'

If you remember I raised this here before.  How does a new entrant bidder establish a track record he does not have?  Does he just promise to pay 'fines' if he gets a bad press he did not deserve?  I would need to ensure that all polls really were that and not voodoo polls if I were making those promises. 


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on March 25, 2013, 21:35:47
I hate this 'will say' reporting.

I merely quoted the BBC ...  :o ::) ;D


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on March 25, 2013, 23:18:02
Yes I know that  - I was just writing about I hate it.  :(   ;)  ;D


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Plymboi on March 26, 2013, 09:26:58
West coast extended til 2017
Northern and TPE 2015
Crosscountry given 6 year extension til 2020

Great western remains unchanged.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: brompton rail on March 26, 2013, 09:35:10
XC extended to 2020?!

We are all doomed.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Network SouthEast on March 26, 2013, 09:43:48
West coast extended til 2017
Northern and TPE 2015
Crosscountry given 6 year extension til 2020

Great western remains unchanged.

CrossCountry is getting a 43 month extension, not a six year one.

First Great Western is getting an extension from this October to July 2016 (33 months).

You can read more on the Department for Transport site here: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/franchise-announcement


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Plymboi on March 26, 2013, 09:52:16
West coast extended til 2017
Northern and TPE 2015
Crosscountry given 6 year extension til 2020

Great western remains unchanged.

CrossCountry is getting a 43 month extension, not a six year one.

First Great Western is getting an extension from this October to July 2016 (33 months).

You can read more on the Department for Transport site here: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/franchise-announcement

Was meant to say 4 year extension.

Oh so it has. I looked at a diagram earlier which showed it as unchanged. Which I did think was odd. Thanks for clearing that up, best to read an article then a picture ha.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ChrisB on March 26, 2013, 10:08:21
From a FGW release circulated to the Customer Panel....

Quote
Update on FirstGroup rail franchises
Following an announcement by the Department for Transport (DfT) today, I can confirm to you the following with regard to our First Capital Connect, First Great Western and First TransPennine Express rail franchises.

The First Capital Connect franchise will continue beyond its current planned end date of 14 September 2013. As previously indicated the DfT is to exercise the option in the current contract of a 28 week extension. As well as this, we will continue our discussions in respect of an agreement for the franchise to continue for a further period of six months, to an end date of September 2014.

The First Great Western franchise will continue beyond its current end date of 31 March 2013. As previously announced, under the terms of the current franchise agreement the 28 week extension period will be activated. In addition we are in discussions with the DfT in respect of an agreement to continue the franchise for a further 33 months to July 2016.

 The First TransPennine Express franchise will continue beyond its current end date of April 2015. We will begin discussions with the DfT regarding a ten month extension to the current franchise to February 2016.

With the DfT also publishing the timetable setting out the return to rail franchising today, the extension of our three franchises provides continuity and consistency for our customers and enables us to continue to deliver considerable improvements to services. We can now look forward, reviewing the details of the upcoming franchise competitions as they are announced while continuing to provide the best service for our customers.
Vernon Barker MD ^ UK Rail

So, they're NOT 'getting' anything just yet. Discussing with, in respect of an agreement to get....slightly different.
The DfT has lost a lot of money. FGW get the full length franchise. Which SoS signed that one off then?


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Plymboi on March 26, 2013, 10:42:31
Here is the diagra, I referenced to.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/170565/rail-franchise-schedule.pdf


And..... It shows it as extended ha ha ha. That probably because I read at 8am and half asleep :)


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ChrisB on March 26, 2013, 11:04:13
That might be quite significant....


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ChrisB on March 26, 2013, 14:32:53
Interestingly, Phil Haigh at Rail magazine has picked up an anomoly in the various statements put out today.

In this one (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/franchise-announcement), the SoS says

Quote
For Great Western, our plan is to put to market a competed management contract in 2016

In the graphic referred to by Plymboi, it states 'new franchise'.

Those aren't the same animals, by a long chalk.

In the Prior Information Notice (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prior-information-notice-for-rail-franchising-from-2013), dates are set out for the GW contract (whichever it is) as follows -

Publish OJEU (Official Journal of the EU - the journal all EU contract offers have to appear in. One for the Abbreviations, I guess!) - October 2014
Issue ITT - March 2015
Contract Award - March 2016
Contract Start - July 2016


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: paul7575 on March 26, 2013, 15:37:01
There's a subtle difference AFAICS between a new 'management contract' to commence on a certain date,  that is competitively tendered for following an ITT, and a management contract like the one Virgin trains were on for a few years, when the incumbent franchisee was transferred onto it to overcome a problem that had arisen during the franchise, i.e. the WCML modernisation...

London Overground is held up as a counter example to normal franchising, but LOROL still got the job by competitively tendering following an ITT.

Paul


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ChrisB on March 26, 2013, 15:50:59
Indeed - but why not use the word 'franchise' unless what is going to be up for tender is materially different?


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: CLPGMS on March 26, 2013, 16:34:22
Quote
Contract Start - March 2016
Chris - I think that you mean "July 2016".


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ChrisB on March 26, 2013, 16:45:14
Thank you - I did. Now corrected.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Southern Stag on March 26, 2013, 22:14:44
Indeed - but why not use the word 'franchise' unless what is going to be up for tender is materially different?
It appears Great Western and Thameslink will be competitively tendered management contracts in the LOROL mould rather than franchises with the DfT bearing more revenue risk. This is because of the significant disruption facing both in the next franchise period.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Plymboi on March 26, 2013, 22:38:21
Right blonde Moment coming but....

What's the difference between management contract and franchise?


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on March 26, 2013, 22:49:50
What's the difference between management contract and franchise?

Politics.  :P ;) ;D

I've got a fair idea of the real answer, but it's late and I'm a wee bit tired. If no one steps up I'll have a go at answering, less facetiously, tomorrow.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ellendune on March 26, 2013, 23:10:17
What's the difference between management contract and franchise?

A management contract transfers little risk. It is typically a cost plus type of contract, though perhaps with some incentives in it. It is unlikely to include much investment. Having said that the WCML was a management contract for many years.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Southern Stag on March 26, 2013, 23:13:07
AFAIAA it's basically down to how a TOC gets paid for running the service. With the franchise which we're familiar with on the national network TOC's bid based on premium or subsidy profiles, payments that they make or receive from the DfT for providing the service. They take all revenue and pay the costs for the franchise (it isn't quite a simple as that because of the rather complex way Network Rail is funded) and have to make the agreed premium payments and take only the agreed subsidies. TOCs are protected from the effect of external economic factors, originally by the cap and collar arrangements whereby the DfT would make up for most the shortfall in predicted revenue and would also take most the surplus from greater than predicted revenue. In the aborted round of franchises this was replaced by a new measure, which was rather poorly understood and was one of the reasons for the collapse of the franchising system. In a management contract the DfT will take much more of the revenue risk, the TOC is paid a fee for running the service, they don't have to forecast the revenue or make premium payments to the DfT, the fee paid by the DfT is simply a profit for the TOC. Again it can't be quite that simple as the TOC still has to be incentivised to increase revenue in some way, otherwise they could just run the franchise to pot and still pick up there fee. When a line is going to be subject to major disruption it is much harder to predict revenue, so a traditional franchise may be more likely to collapse because it is unable to make the premium payments or get by with the agreed subsidy. With a management contract the service will keep ticking over with the DfT picking up the cost. I doubt I've got everything correct there so I welcome some more posters knowledge.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: thetrout on March 26, 2013, 23:31:22
I've said it before on this forum. I think that the London Buses Model should be used on the railway. In line with completely tearing up the routing / fares guide and starting again.

I was having a discussion with a guard about all this when I asked her for a split tickets combination. She couldn't help but agree with my line of "If the A to B ticket was the same price as the A to J to B" ticket when every train stops at J anyway. Is the system fit for purpose?

I also have a conspiracy theory on the ICEC Franchise which is due to be re-tendered at some point. If the Government was that bothered about Eastcoast, they would've re-tendered years ago. However they've had a nice 600 odd million(*) into the treasury out of the DOR arrangement. Perhaps that's not so bad for them then??

The railways should be bought back into Government ownership IMHO after this major blunder. I think it is both in the interests of the Public and also removes a huge element of risk i.e. another NXEC or GNER disaster.

My final view on FirstGroup is that they are morally corrupt in that they were willing to risk handing in the keys for the final 3 years of the franchise in the hope of bidding and renewing ICGW for a longer period. Probably in an attempt to avoid hefty premiums back to the DfT/Governement for the optional 3 years.

So I really honestly think that the Government allowing them to continue till 2016 is very controversial and shocking decision. Considering the franchise was due to expire in 5 days (31st March 2013). I rather suspect that the DfT's decision was either rushed and/or one of panic!

My feeling is that maybe there should be a public inquiry here...?!?! The system clearly cannot and does not work!


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Southern Stag on March 26, 2013, 23:44:34
My feeling is that maybe there should be a public inquiry here...?!?! The system clearly cannot and does not work!
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/49453/cm-8526.pdf

That's your review on the system, the conclusions; the system is good but has gone wrong. I'm not saying the report is infallible btw, or that I agree with its findings.


Title: East Coast Franchise New Tender
Post by: eightf48544 on March 27, 2013, 09:14:31
Not sure where to put this or if there is already a thread.

I thought I heard yesterday that DaFT are putting East Coast out to tender to re-privatise it!

No time scale mentioned or how it affects WCML and GW re-tendering.


Title: Re: East Coast Franchise New Tender
Post by: paul7575 on March 27, 2013, 09:47:22
DfT have restarted the whole franchising timetable, not just the ECML, including resuming a couple of current competitions that are 'on hold' (ie Essex Thameside and the merger of Thameslink/Great Northern/Southern) with the current shortlisted bidders.

There is a full timetable on DfT's website, the implications for GW are being discussed in this thread: http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=11347.60

Paul



 


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: TonyK on March 27, 2013, 17:21:19
Now, we learn that FGW are to continue with the Great Western franchise until 2016, and the bearded one will keep WCML until at least 2017. The Bristol Post (http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/rail-franchise-London-Bristol-service-extended/story-18530368-detail/story.html#axzz2OlEQIG00) has details:

Quote
First rail franchise for London-Bristol service extended for three years

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

The Bristol Post

By Michael Ribbeck

RAIL firm First Great Western is to operate services between London and Bristol for the next three years, the government has announced.

The process for bidding for the tender for the rail franchise was thrown into chaos last year at a crucial time.

A mistake in the bidding process for another franchise, for the West Coast Mainline, meant that the whole process across the country had to be abandoned while an inquiry into the multi-million-pound mistake at the Department for Transport was carried out.

The decision could not have come at a worse time, with Great Western network gearing itself up for the ^5 billion plan to electrify the line between Bristol and the capital.

New services planned after electrification are expected to be faster and more frequent ^ but in the short term the work to upgrade the line is expected to lead to delays and cancellations for several years.

Although the bidding process has been halted First Great Western has been told it will continue running services in the region for another three years, until 2016.

The company took over the tender a decade ago and was originally criticised for the number of delays and cancellations. However First has dramatically improved performance on the route in recent years.

The existing franchise had been due to end this October but last month The Post reported that the government had indicated it would continue until 2015.

Yesterday the government announced that the new franchise was now due to start in July 2016.

Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin has published a timetable for all rail franchise arrangements over the next eight years.

He said: "This programme is a major step in delivering tangible improvements to services, providing long-term certainty to the market and supporting our huge programme of rail investment. Above all, in future franchise competitions we are placing passengers in the driving seat by ensuring that their views and satisfaction levels are taken into account when deciding which companies run our railway services.

"Franchising has been a force for good in the story of Britain's railways, transforming an industry that was in decline into one that today carries record numbers of passengers."

First said it was giving up the previous Great Western franchise in 2011, three years before it was due to end, saving the company from paying ^800 million to the taxpayer.

But the latest deal takes it far beyond the original end date for the franchise, which started in 2006.

A DfT spokesman said talks to finalise details of the deal on services up until 2016 were still ongoing.

First chief executive Tim O'Toole said: "This provides continuity and consistency for our passengers and enables us to continue to deliver considerable improvements to services.

"We look forward to reviewing the details of the upcoming franchise competitions as they are announced, and submitting further high-quality bids that deliver for passengers, taxpayers and shareholders."

So FGW didn't take up the extension they could have had, but got it anyway. By the time the next franchise review comes around, the electrification will be well under way, and contenders for the new franchise will be able to say how they will use IEP and otherwise use the massive investment to the fullest. FGW will have been subjected to delays and workarounds during electrification, as they have been during the work at Reading.

There is fuller information about the timetable nationally in the Written statement by the Minister, DfT website (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/franchise-announcement)


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on March 28, 2013, 08:36:09
Now, we learn that FGW are to continue with the Great Western franchise until 2016

Despite it being widely reported, the management contract has yet to be signed off, although I suspect it is somewhat a fait accompli.

Meanwhile in other (related) news:

From The Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9957766/Train-firms-drop-40m-lawsuit-over-Great-Western-costs.html):

Quote
Train firms drop ^40m lawsuit over Great Western costs

Four of Britain^s major train operators have dropped a lawsuit against the Government to recover up to ^40m of costs lost when the bidding competition for the Great Western rail franchise was scrapped earlier this year.

Arriva, FirstGroup, National Express and Stagecoach lodged a claim with the specialist Technology and Construction Court earlier this month, but later agreed to ^stay^ the proceedings to allow for further negotiations with the Department for Transport.

However, the companies have now decided not to press ahead and sue the Government, despite claims by one rail executive that they were still ^morally in the right^.

The move comes after Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin on Tuesday announced that the Government would award extensions for 12 rail franchises.

Dean Finch, the chief executive of National Express, told The Daily Telegraph that he believed the train operators were still ^morally in the right^, but the company had decided not to pursue the matter any further based on the available evidence.

A Stagecoach Group spokesman said: ^We are not pursuing the issue further and we consider the matter closed. Our focus is firmly on looking forward to support moves to get franchising back on track and deliver the planned extensions to our franchises.^

A spokesman for Arriva said: ^Following the stay in proceedings we have considered the DfT^s response and have decided not to pursue the matter further.^

National Express is currently negotiating with the Government over an extension to its c2c contract, which allows it to run trains between London Fenchurch Street and south Essex.

Stagecoach is in talks over extensions to its South West and East Midlands franchises, while its joint venture with Virgin Trains will continue to run the West Coast Main Line until 2017.

FirstGroup will continue to operate the Great Western franchise until July 2016.Mr McLoughlin sparked outrage in January when he cancelled the competition for Great Western services between London, Bristol and Cardiff and said that he would not reimburse the train companies, which spent up to ^10m each preparing bids. The franchise had originally been due to come to an end next month.

The auction was cancelled in the wake of the West Coast main line fiasco, which sparked a review of the franchising system in Britain.

The DfT declined to comment, but had previously argued that the document inviting train operators to tender for the franchise made clear that the Government would ^not be responsible for the costs or expenses^ of any bidder.

National Express on Wednesday announced it has won several new contracts, including one to run coach services between Luton airport and Victoria in central London for seven years. The services are expected to generate a minimum of ^6m of revenue a year.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: trainer on March 28, 2013, 09:31:26
The ^40m has to come from somewhere and that somewhere will either be the shareholders or the passengers.  Now let me guess which it will be... :-\


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ChrisB on March 28, 2013, 11:08:40
Or taxpayers generally....which I suspect it will be through lower income from the extensions.

FGW & the DfT are somewhat far apart in negotiations as to what FGW will put into the mix. Mark Hopwood was on Tweet the Manager last night, and suggestions he didn't say 'no' to were Delay/Repay and wifi on all (long-distance) trains....


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: trainer on March 28, 2013, 13:13:38
It will only come from general taxation if the companies are compensated by the government for their outlay over the aborted franchising.  There may be something going on behind closed doors, but on the surface it looks as if the companies are not being paid.  Hence my point about who makes up the shortfall.

I take your point about hidden payments though.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ellendune on March 28, 2013, 21:22:35
It will come from taxation ultimately, because in future all bidders will cost that sort of risk into their bids. Once bitten...


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: TonyK on March 31, 2013, 11:53:43
Let's face it, all government does is say "Lend us a fiver, and I'll give you that pound I owe you". An economic miracle is when we all use our credit cards at the same time. Whether we give the railway companies our money at the ticket booth or from the wage packet, we still give them our money. At least I get 3% back on mine.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on March 31, 2013, 12:10:31
If you are getting 3% on an instant access account FTN, please tell me where, there's a good chap!


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on March 31, 2013, 12:21:28
I believe FTN was saying that he gets 3% back on his credit card spend.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: woody on April 01, 2013, 13:13:18
 The Guardian newspaper in an article entitled "Nationalised rail is shunted into sidings as coalition tries to make sums add up on east coast line" raises some very relevant points far beyond just the east coast main line.                                                                                                                                                                                                     

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/mar/31/nationalised-rail-shunted-to-sidings-east-coast

Here are quotes from said article as follows.

"Without the burden of an onerous payment schedule, East Coast has been able to concentrate on service while paying back to the taxpayer ^600m in profits and premiums."

Regarding the recent West Coast main line franchise bidding fiasco it says "GNER and National Express left a combined hole of ^2.7bn in government spending plans, but the amount offered by First Group would have done even greater damage."

"McLoughlin is set on re-tendering a prestigious and potentially lucrative line that encourages operators to abuse the greatest failing of the franchise system: private companies take the upside when their predictions come good, while the taxpayer is saddled with the cost when they go bad."

"passengers and taxpayers have to hope that the next incumbent gets its sums right. A successful experiment in nationalisation is being sacrificed to make good a failure of privatisation.".

I would like to add that I am in no way anti privatisation as such having works all my life in the private sector and it does work generally but the private sector has its limitations too,ok for nuts ,bolts,tin of beans etc etc and a thousand other consumer items easily supplied by a competitive private market place,but railways! given they are now essentially a public service being kept afloat by huge taxpayer subsidies they can hardly be described as private rather they are still a basically nationalised industry in all but name overlaid by a very thin top heavy veneer of privatisation,when rather embarrassingly for the government they could be run as the current East Coast public model has shown much more efficiently under Directly Operated Railways. I have therefore logically come to the conclusion that the only train privatisation seems good at running from the taxpayers point of view is the "gravy train" purely for the benefit of the big transport companies boardrooms and shareholders bottom. Interestingly "Private Eye" magazine recently described First Group as and I quote a "rag bag of international transport companies and a whopping debt".Say no more.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: thetrout on April 01, 2013, 15:20:02
If you are getting 3% on an instant access account FTN, please tell me where, there's a good chap!

I think FTN is referring to the Santander 123 Credit Card where you get 3% back on what you spend with TfL and 'National Rail' Services... ;)


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on April 01, 2013, 15:28:30
Spend to save thus?   :D

I've only got a basic account with them, useful though as they do not charge me a cent for receiving my euros pension from NL (as the other big 4, usually ^25, what a nerve, do,  grrr, grrr).   :-[


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: thetrout on April 02, 2013, 12:24:37
Spend to save thus?   :D

I've only got a basic account with them, useful though as they do not charge me a cent for receiving my euros pension from NL (as the other big 4, usually ^25, what a nerve, do,  grrr, grrr).   :-[

Well going way off topic, I guess it's how you use the thing! They charge an annual fee for the CC, so it depends on how much you use the train. If you spend more than ^300 per month, it'll save you approximately ^108 a year, minus the fee and you've still made a saving!

Then provided you settle the balance in full every month, they don't charge any interest (Excluding any other fees such as balance transfers/cash advances etc!). So I guess it's a win win all round.

Personally, I don't like Santander, so I won't touch them with a barge pole! ;D


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on April 02, 2013, 12:36:00
I should explain I don't 'really' bank with Santander.  I just use the account as a receiving one, as I explained, out of which I immediately do an online transfer to our 'real' bank account.  The latter bank gives us two free credit cards each.  Thanks for the information though.  At present, I travel by rail once in a Preston Guild (wish it more more   :(  ) so I suppose it depends how often and much you spend, as that has to be set off against the charge for the credit card.  How much is that btw?  I might get one if, even I, can make on it.

As an aside I find it difficult to understand how one can 'dislike' an inanimate object like Santander! Caramba!  ;D  ???


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: TonyK on April 02, 2013, 18:34:53
I believe FTN was saying that he gets 3% back on his credit card spend.

And so he was. This is not an advertising forum, so I will not say where, but you will it on TV a lot. Or you could ask Jessica Ennis when you see her next.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on April 02, 2013, 18:48:21
I don't need to, the Trout already told us (see above).   ;) ;D


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: TonyK on April 02, 2013, 18:50:18
I don't need to, the Trout already told us (see above).   ;) ;D

Just looked up and seen it.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ROGace on April 03, 2013, 16:20:43
after using FGW from Paddington regularly from 2005 onwards to Bath, Worcester, Taunton, Devon and Cornwall i have no wish to see them lose their franchise as it seems they are doing a pretty good job.

I never have really had many problems on my travels and i like the 1st class services on the HST ( i am not a commuter)

may i ask who else maybe in the running for renewal when it happens

thanks



Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on April 03, 2013, 16:42:37
may i ask who else maybe in the running for renewal when it happens

There's nobody in the running at the moment. The franchise tender issued in late 2011 has been cancelled and a new Invitation to Tender will go out in late 2015 for a 15 year franchise beginning in July 2016. The bidders for the cancelled franchise were First Group, Stagecoach, National Express and Arriva UK (part of Deutsche Bahn).

At the moment the incumbent, First Great Western, has a franchise that will end in October of this year. The original termination date was the end of March, but the DfT has exercised it's contractual right to extend this by 28 weeks. First Group are negotiating with the Department for Transport for a management contract to run from October 2013 for 33 months until July 2016. Rather ironically this is only 3 months beyond the date at which the existing franchise would have ended, had First Group decided to take up the optional 3 year extension that was allowed for in the 2006 franchise agreement. They decided not to take that extension because the premium payments were heavily backloaded toward the end of the franchise and it was likely that they would be on something of a loser in those three years to 2016. You can't really blame them for not taking up the option to extend. It would likely have been a poor commercial decision to continue. Their share price and debt hasn't been particularly good over the past two years. Certainly not a company I'd be investing in if I had a bob or two to spare. It's also worth remembering that First Group went all guns blazing for the InterCity West Coast franchise. And we all know what happened there.

I've no doubt that the deliberations over the management contract are complex. Probably with both First Group and the DfT playing hardball. First Group will want a decent return for their shareholders and the DfT will be trying to ensure the best deal for the Treasury and the taxpayer. What's best for the passenger probably comes after that.

There's no other player in the game for this management contract. If an agreement is not reached then Directly Operated Railways (i.e. the Government) will have to step in. I think though that this predominantly Conservative administration will be doing all they can to avoid that. It won't sit well for them to nationalise (albeit temporarily) a major part of the rail network. So, while both sides will likely be playing hardball, I fear First Group's ball is the one that will be harder. If not, then they'll be taking their ball and going home.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Southern Stag on April 03, 2013, 18:05:45
They decided not to take that extension because the premium payments were heavily backloaded toward the end of the franchise and it was likely that they would be on something of a loser in those three years to 2016. You can't really blame them for not taking up the option to extend. It would likely have been a poor commercial decision to continue. Their share price and debt hasn't been particularly good over the past two years. Certainly not a company I'd be investing in if I had a bob or two to spare.
I don't know if anyone else saw the TOC probability figures published in Modern Railways recently but they were quite interesting. FGW made an operating loss of ^52.3million in 2011, a profit of ^9.5million in 2010 and a loss of ^12.8million in 2009. If they had taken up the extension with the huge premium payments involved the losses would probably have been huge, you can certainly see why FGW didn't want to have the extension.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Timmer on April 03, 2013, 19:13:59
while both sides will likely be playing hardball, I fear First Group's ball is the one that will be harder. If not, then they'll be taking their ball and going home.
Along with the five or so HST sets that First own.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: TonyK on April 03, 2013, 21:33:14
First Group's shares rose over 7% today when analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch said they thought the eventual result of the contract extension talks could be a rise in value of 20%. I am no barrack-room stockbroker,but I have thought since shortly after the franchise talks were put on hold that First could walk away from this with both the penny and the bun. BNM is right when he says that the deliberations will be complex, but First's seat at the poker table will be a comfortable one. The whole negotiation round will be underpinned by DfT's fear of another cock-up, and the short duration of the extension means that the acceptable margin for error will be wider than in the main re-franchising - if anyone really knows what the end result should be. I believe the brief will be to get FGW onside at reasonable cost, if not any cost. DOR is an acronym likely to strike more fear in the hearts of the of officials than DOA.

FGW, as many here have said, did no wrong in walking away from the original extension. They coped with a lot in the early years that was not within their control or expectation, didn't do a bad job, but probably didn't see enough potential improvement in the extension period to justify the premiums they would have had to pay. They may ask a price that will go some way towards making up for the disappointment, but they won't take the mickey. Forefront in the mind will be the chance to run brand new kit under brand new wires through state-of the-art stations like Reading for the first half of the operational life. Being helpful now will still be in the minds of the official side when the new franchise talks start in earnest. Having Merrill Lynch smile on your efforts is good news too. I'm not sure I am ready to dip my own hand to my pocket  and buy shares just yet, but I may look further into this. I will not, however, use my entire investment fund. Apart from putting everything on one horse being imprudent, a half-empty gallon whiskey bottle looks daft by the fireplace.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on April 05, 2013, 05:03:58
What I'd like to see from this 33 month period under a management contract is for both the DfT and First Group to look at trialing some of the 'priced options' that were in the now cancelled Invitation to Tender for the franchise that was due to start this year.

Whilst some of the 'priced options' were dependent on future infrastructure, others such as TransWilts, Heart of Wessex, Riviera Line, Bristol Metro (on existing infrastructure) and Cornish branch lines are possible to implement. DMU rolling stock availability would be the major constraint for these improvements, but some strategic use of loco-hauled Mk2/3s of which there is, I believe, enough available for spot hire, could allow for these priced options to be tested to see what the passenger loadings and revenue are. I'm not suggesting that loco-hauled should be used exclusively for these 'priced options'. Rather, the spot hired stock be thrown into the rolling stock mix of the current Greater Western fleet so that it can be used either directly on 'priced option' services or on existing routes/diagrams to free up DMUs for use on the 'priced option' services.

I say this not because I'm misty-eyed about the possibility of seeing loco-hauled stock in my neck of the woods, but because I believe it would be an ideal opportunity to trial additional services where all the evidence suggests they are needed.

This ain't just an idea I'm touting from behind my keyboard. I've written to both my MP and the Department for Transport.

Only reply thus far has been a generic 'thank-you for your correspondence' from my MP's office. I hope she'll look into my suggestions further. She is after all advocating for rail service improvements in and around Bristol.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: TonyK on April 05, 2013, 20:23:29
Bloody hell, bignosemac, that's nothing short of a brilliant idea! Bringing loco-hauled stock back to, say, Weston to Yate or Cardiff - Taunton or whatever would give a bit of relief to some peak commuters on those routes, and allow for a bit of medium-term experimentation during a clearly defined period. We could try Weston to Severn Beach or at least Clifton Down, to give an idea of how Portishead to SVB might work in addition to the existing SVB to BRI service. Or Trowbridge to Clifton Down, or - I'm getting a bit faint now.

It would give a relatively cheap way to validate some of the models used in measuring demand. Projects stand or fall on research and calculations by consultants, like Atkins, using methodology established by DafT. Yet the Fareham to Gosport BRT has performed disappointingly against their projections, whereas the Ebbw Vale railway figures have exceeded expectations quickly.

bignosemac, you are some kind of genius!


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: John R on April 05, 2013, 20:38:01
Bringing loco-hauled stock back to, say, Weston to Yate or Cardiff - Taunton or whatever would give a bit of relief to some peak commuters on those routes,

It would give a relatively cheap way...
Since the latest capacity enhancements is there actually any need for relief on these routes? I haven't seen any comment re overcrowding for ages.

And I'm not sure that loco-hauled + coaches is a relatively cheap way, particularly if you need a loco on each end. I suspect it was a last resort that was used when DaFT realised they had screwed up and needed to buy some time.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: trainer on April 05, 2013, 22:44:35
I used the loco + coaches for real (as opposed to 'just for the ride') when I was more regularly travelling from Yatton and I cannot believe it is a cheap option.  The coaches I travelled in certainly looked their age inside and - like a fairy tale myth - all the seats lined up with the windows and had tables!  This is of course lovely, but not very economical in the present way of things.  Thus, welcome as the traditional way of free range transport is (as opposed to battery conditions [think chickens]), it meant that as many people had to stand as could sit sometimes.

On the plus side, a trial to assess demand which doesn't involve lots of investment in new kit which will take some time to procure, is an idea I could easily support.

bignosemac, you are some kind of genius!

This statement is of course true - we are currently working out what kind!  ;D


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on April 06, 2013, 00:44:24
... I've written to both my MP and the Department for Transport.

Only reply thus far has been a generic 'thank-you for your correspondence' from my MP's office. I hope she'll look into my suggestions further. She is after all advocating for rail service improvements in and around Bristol.

I'm sure she will, and she is.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on April 06, 2013, 12:25:23
Bringing loco-hauled stock back to, say, Weston to Yate or Cardiff - Taunton or whatever would give a bit of relief to some peak commuters on those routes,

It would give a relatively cheap way...
Since the latest capacity enhancements is there actually any need for relief on these routes? I haven't seen any comment re overcrowding for ages.

And I'm not sure that loco-hauled + coaches is a relatively cheap way, particularly if you need a loco on each end. I suspect it was a last resort that was used when DaFT realised they had screwed up and needed to buy some time.

Isn't there a similar trial going on to take the workers to Windscale  ('oop nawth').


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on April 06, 2013, 12:41:11
Where is this 'Windscale' of which you speak? I cannot find it in my rail atlas.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on April 06, 2013, 14:02:10
Ah, so young (envy)!  Try Google and all will be revealed.   ;D


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: JayMac on April 06, 2013, 14:28:21
Ahh, so that'll be Sellafield, a name which predates Windscale. Re-named Windscale when the ordnance factory was converted to nuclear materials production and then later reverted back to its original name.  ;)


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on April 06, 2013, 15:19:19
 ;D  That's the one.  I prefer the euphemism, which became the opposite, a curse (not by me, mind).


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: TonyK on April 09, 2013, 21:36:47
Sellafield / Windscale is "oop nawth" even by my standards. I have been there long ago, as well as Whitehaven and Cockermouth, and can say little to commend Sellafield as a beauty spot. It is, however, the biggest employer in West Cumbria, with over 10,000 people. There is a lot of nothing around the area, and the train mentioned was run by DRS, to gauge opinion. It proved very popular with enthusiasts, because of the rolling stock used. I think it finished in February last year, and I have no idea if it was eventually deemed a success. It seemed to me a bit like the Severn Beach line experient in 2007(?), in that it filled an inconvenient gap. Unfortunately, there was trouble with the line later in the year, with bad weather causing a landslip.


bignosemac, you are some kind of genius!

This statement is of course true - we are currently working out what kind!  ;D

Alright, own up. Who said warped?


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on April 09, 2013, 22:14:40
Alright, but at least I didn't think 'evil'.   ;D

Good question about the loco / coach set.  I think it's still going, but there is a northern rail nut site I haven't visited for some time (too much rail buff stuff IYKWIM).  I'll follow it up.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: chuffed on April 10, 2013, 20:29:56
Oh come on chaps. That's a bit harsh on BNM ..why don't we just settle for 'flawed' ???? ;D


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: swrural on April 10, 2013, 20:35:45
My investigations suggested it finished in a whimper, sad.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: ellendune on June 15, 2013, 08:30:36
An interesting take on two pieces of news.

So Virgin want better punctuality - so Network Rail refuse them more trains because that would impact on punctuality. From Network Rail's point of view the words "want cake and eat it" come to mind.

Rail passengers suffer from playground politics (http://www.shropshirestar.com/lifestyle/blogs/burrows-about-town/2013/06/15/rail-passengers-suffer-from-playground-politics/?)

Quote
Remember when you were a kid? The politics of the playground?

"If I can't be Kenny Dalglish then I'm taking my ball home."

I may have given away a bit too much about my age there.

Isn't it nice when you grow up and leave those silly playground politics behind? What's that line about putting away childish things?

Well, it seems not everybody does. In fact it seems childish things might actually play a part in big business - and impact on all our lives.

This week we discover that Network Rail has rejected a bid by Virgin Trains to bring a direct rail link in between Shrewsbury and London. You know, the thing that businesses in the county have been crying out for.

First, let's remind ourselves why we don't have a direct link.

We did have one. In the form of the form of Wrexham & Shropshire. To stretch the playground metaphor to breaking point, they were the weird new kid. They did things differently. They got no money from the Government (I've stopped the metaphor now) but the big train companies did. Like every weird new kid (started it again) it was bullied and soon disappeared.

After much farce, one of the popular kids - Virgin (the metaphor has stopped again!) - said it would run a direct link. And everything seemed hunky dory.

Then, just last week, Virgin issued a statement DEMANDING that Network Rail, which owns and operates the county's railways, made millions of pounds worth of "customer-focussed improvements" to "compensate customers for poor punctuality".

It said it was preparing "enforcement action" to bring about punctuality improvements, following "sustained poor performance by Network Rail".

And then, coincidently (!) Network Rail announces Virgin can't have its direct line to London.

"I'm taking my ball home."

That's not their actual statement. That said they had acknowledged that performance on the West Coast line was not good enough but adding more services would mean a "trade off with punctuality" with a "significant negative impact on performance for the thousands of other passenger and freight services that rely on this route every day^.

So basically telling Virgin that if they want their current services to run on time, they can't have any more.

And who suffers from this apparent spat?

Yep, the customers that both sides claim to be trying to protect. Once again businesses and tourists are denied because men in grey suits can't get their act together.

The condemnation of the decision has been swift. But that is little comfort to passengers who are once again feeling the strain of the train.


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: Andrew1939 from West Oxon on June 15, 2013, 16:29:33
How does the level of service provided now compare with when Wrexham and Shropshire ran their services, i.e. since W & S gave up, has the Virgin service improved punctuality wise?


Title: Re: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?
Post by: John R on June 15, 2013, 17:08:46
There was barely any interaction between W&S and Virgin, only for very short distances in the Birmingham area. (They didn't even use the main line between Wolverhampton and Birmingham but went via Tame Bridge Parkway.) So I wouldn't have expected any impact of W&S to register on the published Virgin figures, any movement in which will have been from other factors.



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