Great Western Coffee Shop

Some figures from the franchise ... and some thoughts as to where fares may be going in the next seven years.  Figures in the first section are from franchise plans and the journey figures may in practise be better or worse.

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2008 - 2009. FGW Franchise subsidy per passenger journey = 0.13 pounds (82.46 million forecast passenger journeys per annum , 10.8 million pounds subsidy received.)


2015 - 2016.  FGW Franchise premium per passenger journey = 2.82 pounds (110.74 million forecast passenger journeys per annum , 312.8 million pounds premium payable.)

Average journey of an FGW passenger - 44.6 miles.

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So ... for 2008-2009 the government is paying a subsidy of 0.3p per mile, but by 2015-2016 that will be a Train Travel Tax to the government of 6.3p per mile. On that basis, consider the following.

6.80 return, Bristol to Bath, is 30p per mile, 24 mile round trip journey. For 2008-09 that will be subsidised by 7p in total; for 2015-2016, the government will expect a payment of 190p - that's one pound 90p.

115.00 return, Chippenham to Paddington, is 57.5p per mile, 200 mile round trip. For 2008-09 that will be subsidised by 60p; for 2015-2016, the government will expect a payment of 1260p - that's twelve pounds 60p.

7.10 return, Melksham to Swindon, is 12.5p per mile, 57 mile round trip. For 2008-09 that will be subsidised by 17p; for 2015-2016, the government will expect a payment of 360p - that's three pounds 60p.

I have used fares from January in these calculations, and assumed that the subsidy or TTT (Train Travel Tax) is levied equally over all routes in the FGW area, which is probably an unfair assumption to make, as it makes TTT 50% on the Melksham to Swindon route, 28% on the Bath to Bristol run and 11% on Chippenham to London. These tax rates for the 2015-16 year.

Fares quoted are for next year, standard returns.  As the franchise payments are NOT based on fares, you can consider every journey to be taxed at the amount shown no matter what the fare levels are, though of course if you're on a cheap ticket the tax RATE will be even higher.

IT won't happen, in 7 years that's a 34% increase in Passengers numbers, Trains Are FULL, NO more stock is on line to come to FGW.
 
Shoot a few H & S reps you could put passengers on the Roof India style like.

We should get more stock when 150/1s in the west mids are displaced by 172s.

I believe the right pieces of paper have already been signed for us to have the 150/1's.

Excellent news. Don't suppose you know how many sets by any chance?

Should be another 10, we have 2 already.

Dont we have to wait until 2009 for the Class 150/1 units, and can FGW weather the media storm up until that point?

Also, arent they meant to replace the Class 142 units, 5 of which we are due to lose in October 2008 as they are only short-leased to cover refresh?

I rekon they will keep those 142s, as we ideally don't need 4 cars, but need more than 2 cars.

The 150/1's are due to replace the 142's, but bear in mind that we currently have up to four units unavailiable at any one time due to refurbishments! Currently 158798, 158751, 150261 and 153305 (allegedly) are in various workshops.

So that's (in effect) 14 units coming in, 12 units going out, making a gain of 2 units compared to today.

But not until 2009.

Aren't the West Midlands 150/1s three car sets? If so these would be quite a gain for FGW. If they are just two car then as Lee says all it would be is a gain of two sets replacing the 142s currently on loan.

i believe we're getting 8 of the 2 car sets

the 3 are staying, for now anyway

I could of coruse be wrong

Andy Mellors has said that it would be an "option at the time", all of the three car 150/1's APART from 150001/002 are hybrid units, like the 158's that Wessex ran, i.e. they have a 150/2 car in between 2 150/1 vehicles, so effectively if they were all split up then there would be a load more 150/2's availiable aswell, which would be better for FGW.

London Midland currently have 14 three-coach and 10 two-coach Class 150/1 units plus 150001/002.

In addition, they have 2 two-coach Class 150/2 units.

If we had 001 and 002 then they cant split them into two cars! We'll heve those ones then!

I find it interesting that there is so much interest about getting class 150 units.
Built in early 1980s with a 20 year life, should have gone for scrap by now!
Mind you a 150 beats a 142 hands down.
However most francihses are getting NICE NEW STOCK, where's our NEW trains.

Thats a good idea, scrap perfectly good trains JUST BECAUSE THEY'RE OLD! You don't half talk sh1t smokey.

Perhaps he works for the Department for Tarmac (DfT)?

Doubt it :

something like that.

Its not that we're getting exciting about getting more 'hand me down' stock whilst another franchise gets new stock, its just we are grateful for any additional rolling stock thats coming our way at the moment!

I think I'm right in saying that 150s are popular with some of the traincrew who post on this site. I don't mind them but prefer a 158  :)

New rolling stock doesn't always mean good rolling stock. Take XC for example: Penzance-Edinburgh on an HST or Voyager? Know which one I'd choose anyday!

FGW, GNER (NatEx EC) have shown just what you can do with 30 year rolling stock with the refurb of their HST fleets. They are good for another 10-15 years now with new interiors and engines in the power cars. Some passengers have even thought that they were brand new trains! Then you have Arriva XC bringing HSTs back to the XC network. I do hope they highlight in their timetables which services are being run by HSTs then I might start using XC services again rather than going via London  :)

Whoops, sorry going way off topic here so will make a comment about the original post.

We had all better get used to high fare increases every year from now on as someone has to pay the DFT their premium. Like I've said before think of it as a tax for deciding to use the train!

My comment about 150's is that they are already life expired!

FGW is I believe the ONLY franchise where Brand new stock isn't part of the deal!

Why is that then Vacman.

Me thinks you like old stock.

Bring back the old DMU's

SUIT YOU SIR

Some pics of the interiors of the first refreshed FGW 150. Don't know about you but I think they look rather good:

http://www.therailwaycentre.com/News%20Nov%202007/051107-FGW.html

No new stock in the specification for East Midlands franchise...the 'Connect' part of the franchise i.e ex Central services.

They will have to join the queue like FGW and other operators in hoping to get some of the 1,300 carriages the government keeps saying are going to happen.

Just one small problem of course and thats the competition commision's inquiry into the ROSCO's leasing charges for ex-BR stock. The tables have somewhat been turned on DFT for reporting the ROSCOS to the CC as they themselves are being investigated by the way they prescrib what stock is used and where which restricts what stock the TOCs can have.

Whilst all this goes on the overcrowding on our rail network gets worse as the ROSCOS aren't keen on investing in new rolling stock whilst they face a somewhat uncertain future regards what income they are going to get from rolling stock leases.

Its not a case of FGW buying new stock...

The DafT specifies it wants some crap new underfloor engined trains (take Voyagers for example) and a ROSCO will own them, and lease them to the TOC.

FGW actually own some of their stock, which is a bonus.

The link below details where the 1,300 carriages (assuming they get built) are likely to be deployed.
http://www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/whitepapercm7176/railwphlsospecimen

Regarding the FGW area, the London-Reading corridor is battling it out with services in the Southeastern, Southern, South West Trains, Chiltern, London Midland, FCC, One and c2c areas for a share of around 900 extra coaches.

Bristol is battling it out with Leicester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Nottingham and Sheffield for a share of around 50-80 carriages.

East Midlands Trains = No new trains, Arriva Trains Wales = No new trains, "One" = No new trains, National Express East Coast = No new trains, Northern = No new trains, First Scotrail = No new trains and these are all companies that run ex BR stock, OK "one" have a couple of 170's and ATW have some 175's which are relatively new, but you get the point??? oh, First Capital Connect aswell... ;D

I see that they're using 2001 figures for the number of people who commute to work by train as the basis of their calculation.   I wonder what they've done to allow for differential growth in that calculation.  I'm concerned that a 0.8% compound figure based on 2002/2003 figures was used for the GW franchise calculation that (I think) got us into something of the current mess, with actual achieved figures that I'm familiar with (TransWilts, which may have shown stronger growth that the rest of the FGW area) being between 10% compound and 35% compound.

Leeds with 13000 daily commuters by train in 2001 gets 60 - 90 extra carriages
Bristol with 4000 daily commuters by train in 2001 would get just 10 if the "others" pot is spread evenly.

1) East Midland Trains have newish Meridians of some lines.
2) As you said about the 175's and they made be getting 5 year old Adelantes.
3) At the start of the franchise 170 had recently been deployed.

Your right in what you say, but in direct answer to smokeys question then i'm right, new-ish isn't new trains!

I know you were write in the answer to the question but as they had newish trains they didnt need new ones hence there was no franchise commitment to.

Dont really know where you get the idea new trains are better than old...most of the so called new stuff is falling apart now give it a few more years and it will be scrap when the 150/158 are still going strong.
Have you tried a 166/65 or 175 lately?? ride in them more than once and you will be clamoring for a 150 /158.
granted most of FGW Stock is getting on a bit ,but its far from being the worst about.best of the new stuff imho is the class 170

Personally i think the refurbed 158's at better than quite a lot of stock the UK has that is new  (built within last 5 years)

With the exception of the SWT 159's which i personally think are the best DMU's in the ENTIRE country

The BIG BIG thing about SWT's 159 fleet is they are Maintained at Salisbury, OK before there's comments about Fueling at other Locations, ONLY Salisbury depot maintain 159 so two things happen, 1 more pride is taken by the staff, and 2 Failures can be pointed too that depot.
When stock moves around it's too easy to bodge it up or say NFF (NO FAULT FOUND) and NEXT DAY the UNIT is LAYING on it's BACK with all wheels in the AIR.

The other prime example of 1 depot maintance is Ryde St Johns Road, the OLDEST FLEET in the Country and also about ther MOST reliable.