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All across the Great Western territory => Looking forward - after Coronavirus to 2045 => Topic started by: grahame on October 29, 2014, 04:26:23



Title: The end of the train?
Post by: grahame on October 29, 2014, 04:26:23
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2810758/Will-self-driving-cars-kill-train-Autonomous-vehicles-make-railways-obsolete-new-high-speed-routes-built-expert-claims.html

Quote
Will self-driving cars kill off the train? Autonomous vehicles will make railways obsolete - even if new high speed routes are built, expert claims
Randal O^Toole, of the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington DC, thinks commuters will choose autonomous cars over high-speed trains in 2030
Technology is predicted to feature in lots of cars in the next 15 years and mean journeys could be used for working and watching films, for example
He thinks such vehicles could be the death of the railways - even if billions of pounds are invested on faster lines across the world
His prediction makes arguably plans for HS2 and HS3 unappealing in the UK
...

Futurologists predict that autonomous vehicles will be commonplace on roads in Europe and the US in just 15 years^ time, as companies such as Google, BMW and Toyota work on self-driving technology.
A report by Lux Research predicts that the autonomous car market will be worth $87 billion by 2030, while the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) in New York thinks self-driving vehicles will make up 75 per cent of vehicles on the road by 2040.
Randal O^Toole, a Senior Fellow of the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington DC, says that they will offer a compelling alternative to high speed rail links for distances of 200 miles (322km), rendering some high speed train lines obsolete, Forbes reported.


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: ellendune on October 29, 2014, 07:32:28
This seems to suggest that it is the need to drive cars your self that is making people go on trains, rather than congestion on the roads.  Journey time is my may criterion. 


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: Phil on October 29, 2014, 08:29:06
Right, because of course Americans have such a history of and affiliation for train usage & comparatively low per capita car ownership, and therefore feel the have a right to make claims on behalf of other cultures and countries as well. I'd love to see how this alleged expert's headline prediction for railways being obsolete by 2030 pan out in, say, India. I'd also hesitate an educated guess that the British will see private car ownership falling as well in future (but then, I'm no "expert", just someone living in a small island with ever spiralling energy costs)


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: eightf48544 on October 29, 2014, 08:30:17
Randal O^Toole, a Senior Fellow of the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington DC,  says it all.

Whist it maybe possible it's implementation to every road and vehicle would make the cost of HS2 look trivial. Of course from the libertarian point of view they would say you can buy the car and presummably pay Google to drive it with your own money, so no public money involved.

Another way of looking at it we still have problems controlling a few trains on fixed routes, i.e. today's failures at Maidenhead. How you  control millions of autonomous cars not on fixed tracks is quite a large systems problem. Until every car is fitted how do you prevent cars with drviers still hitting other cars whether with drivers or not?

At least a signal failure doesn't kill anyone.


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: broadgage on October 29, 2014, 09:13:09
Also, one of the merits of rail travel is that alcoholic drink may be enjoyed before or during the journey.
Drinking in excess of the limit is a serious offence if driving a car.
I  suspect that drink driving laws WONT be relaxed for self driving cars lest the automatic system fails or only works for part of the journey.

And from where is the fuel to come for additional road vehicles ? Battery power is only viable for relatively short journeys and oil derived fuels wont last forever.


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: Red Squirrel on October 29, 2014, 13:02:11
Cato Institute...

Is that the Cato who was played by Bert Kwouk?

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pink_Panther#Cato_Fong


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: stuving on October 29, 2014, 20:41:32
Randal O^Toole, a Senior Fellow of the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington DC,  says it all.

Whist it maybe possible it's implementation to every road and vehicle would make the cost of HS2 look trivial. Of course from the libertarian point of view they would say you can buy the car and presummably pay Google to drive it with your own money, so no public money involved.

Another way of looking at it we still have problems controlling a few trains on fixed routes, i.e. today's failures at Maidenhead. How you  control millions of autonomous cars not on fixed tracks is quite a large systems problem. Until every car is fitted how do you prevent cars with drviers still hitting other cars whether with drivers or not?

At least a signal failure doesn't kill anyone.

Yes, I think safety is the big omission from his argument.

But would you be surprised to find the Mail's headline was not really based on the original article (http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa758_1.pdf)? Thought not. Though the link with HS2 wasn't the Mail's invention - it seems to have come from Forbes Magazine, of all places.

O'Toole does say new transit schemes should be scrapped, but says nothing (in this article) about intercity rail projects. (He has elsewhere, though.) He does not mention Europe, either, but he does say this:
Quote
In reality, this is a big country, and urban and suburban areas occupy such a small portion of it that they are no threat to other land uses. The 2010 census found that only about 3 percent of the nation^s land, or less than 70 million acres, has been urbanized, including all cities and suburbs in urban areas of 2,500 people or more.
which I suspect even he wouldn't claim applies here, at least to anything like the same extent.

He's been saying much the same as this for decades, and of course the Cato Institute is a "libertarian think tank". These are not exactly rare in Washington, forming the academic wing of the tea-party movement, perhaps? But generally held views in America on things like personal liberty versus other objectives (like fairness or social solidarity), and on risk and personal responsibility, are different from here. So in an American context what he says might be more realisable than you think.

His main point is that outside a few very dense urban areas like New York, "rail transit" is more notable for the money it spends than the passengers it carries. The numbers do support that, too. He's particularly rude about Portland Oregon, often called (with reason) "the most European of American Cities". That could indicate a real difference between Europe and America. Then again, it may be because he grew up in Portland and still lives there.


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: mfpa on October 31, 2014, 12:09:56
Battery power is only viable for relatively short journeys

There are ways around this, in the long term. For example <http://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/advanced-cars/the-allelectric-car-you-never-plug-in> and <http://primove.bombardier.com/application/automotive/>.


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: grahame on October 31, 2014, 12:32:04
Battery power is only viable for relatively short journeys

There are ways around this, in the long term. For example <http://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/advanced-cars/the-allelectric-car-you-never-plug-in> and <http://primove.bombardier.com/application/automotive/>.

In the context of this thread, that's fair comment.  In the context of other threads about running trains beyond the catenary, the advantages would seem to be lost of you have to install induction systems along the track.

I'm noting a 75 mile limit for battery trains beyond the electrics - great for Newbury to Bedwyn,  Greenford branch, Reading to Basingstoke until the North / South spine is done, perhaps Oxford to Banbury ditto. And I'm noting a tram system with just 10% of the route miles with catenary - so perhaps a short stretch of catenary in the lines / turn backs at the outer points would help make these services more robust and / or extend the distance that can be covered.


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: ChrisB on October 31, 2014, 14:17:51
I suspect TOCs eill be uninclined to timetable electrics beyond the wires, keeping this 75mile battery availability until required during disruption....


Title: Re: The end of the train?
Post by: Rhydgaled on November 01, 2014, 16:33:58
I wondered about installing wireless power supply systems under the track a while back, as an unobtrusive solution to OHLE in sensitive areas. I didn't bother mentioning it before now though as I assumed there would be some reason why it wouldn't be possible. Could a magnetic field powerful enough to replace 25kv be too dangerous (obviously that's why 25kv systems are OHLE as a 3rd rail system at that voltage would increase the risk of pepole getting zapped) for example?



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