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All across the Great Western territory => The Wider Picture in the United Kingdom => Topic started by: JayMac on December 09, 2015, 09:51:12



Title: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: JayMac on December 09, 2015, 09:51:12
From the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35048842):

Quote
Widespread improvements to trains in the north of England and Scotland have been promised with the announcement of new contracts for two rail franchises.

The Northern Rail franchise is being awarded to Arriva Rail North Ltd, while TransPennine Express is going to First Trans Pennine Express Ltd.

The Department for Transport said the deals would see the introduction of 500 new carriages.

The outdated and unpopular Pacer trains would also be phased out.

Trains would have room for 40,000 extra passengers at the busiest times, and more than 2,000 extra services a week would be delivered, the DfT said.

The two train operators will oversee ^1.2bn of investment into the railways, according to the announcement.

Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin said the plans would help deliver a "world class rail service" as part of the government's Northern Powerhouse project. "As a one nation government we are committed to closing the economic gap between north and south," he said. "This deal, and the joint management of the franchises, will bring the Northern Powerhouse to life."

Other promises in the announcement include:

- Free wi-fi on TransPennine Express services and stations by July 2018, and on Northern Rail services and 36 stations by December 2019

- ^55m of investment to improve stations

- A new direct Liverpool to Glasgow service from December 2018

- Additional services from Manchester to Glasgow and Edinburgh from December 2017

- Doubling the number of Manchester to Newcastle services, and running more daily services to Hull from Manchester and Leeds, both from December 2017

Mr McLoughlin added: "Arriva Rail North Limited and First Trans Pennine Express Limited went far beyond our requirements with exciting, ambitious plans that will make a real difference to customers. Coupled with our commitment to push ahead with electrifying the vital TransPennine route, [they] will help the region realise its full economic potential, ensuring it has a modern 21st Century transport system."


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: grahame on December 09, 2015, 10:11:36
First press release: http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/first_group/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=858&newsid=622160

A long piece - here's just a bit of it.

Quote
During the life of the franchise more than ^500m will be invested to transform
rail services across the North of England and into Scotland. There will be a
large increase in the number of carriages compared with today, meaning an 80
per cent rise in capacity at the busiest times of the day. The new TransPennine
Express will increase connections between the largest cities in the North and
Scotland by 55 per cent by 2019, keeping their communities and businesses
prospering.

220 brand new vehicles will be introduced by 2019 providing an additional 13m
seats a year. These state of the art intercity trains will be faster and more
reliable with more seats and luggage space. Journey times will be reduced as we
realise the benefits of these new trains and the Government's investment in
electrification. The remaining vehicles will be refurbished to the same
standard.

The new TransPennine Express will also operate a timetable that gives a similar
level of service at weekends as on weekdays, reflecting the changing nature of
work and leisure travel needs. Pioneering fares will be introduced, including
half price travel for jobseekers and 16-18 year olds, as well as further
discounted travel for groups.

FirstGroup will have responsibility for 19 of the region's railway stations and
will invest more than ^18m to further develop these transport hubs. Customer
information at stations and via websites and mobile apps will be improved and
all TransPennine Express trains and FirstGroup-operated stations will be fitted
with free
Wi-Fi by 2018.

[snip]


The new franchise will start on 1 April 2016 and is planned to run until 31
March 2023, with the option for a two-year extension at the DfT's discretion.
Under the contract, FirstGroup will deliver ^303m real NPV* in premium payments
to the Government over the core period, with 2017/18 marking the transition of
this franchise from being a subsidised railway to one which delivers a premium
to the taxpayer.

The franchise will benefit from investment of more than ^500m, primarily during
the first four years of the franchise, leading to enhanced customer experience
and passenger capacity more than doubling across the network over the life of
the franchise. Franchise passenger revenues, which were ^213m in 2014/15, are
expected to increase significantly from the additional capacity created. The
full revenue risk franchise includes a profit sharing arrangement whereby a
proportion of profit in excess of pre-specified thresholds will be payable to
the DfT. FirstGroup will provide up to ^189m in subordinated contingent loan
facilities to the operating company, of which ^84m is bonded, as well as a ^15m
performance bond and a season ticket bond of up to ^3m. The Group expects to
earn an appropriate return over the life of the contract, reflecting the
franchise risk profile.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: JayMac on December 09, 2015, 10:22:02
Small point. Jobseekers can already get half price travel with the Jobcentre Plus Railcard.

The new trains for TPE are to be 125mph capable. Bearing in mind their operating area it could mean these will have to be bi-mode. My suspicion is another order for Hitachi's AT300s.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: IndustryInsider on December 09, 2015, 10:47:20
A very promising franchise award for the long-suffering users of both TPE and Northern.

My suspicion is another order for Hitachi's AT300s.

Hopefully assembled at Newton Aycliffe if that does turn out to be the case.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: Tim on December 09, 2015, 12:42:53
I agree.  I don't expect it will happen, but couldn't the DfT engineer some way of pushing the assembly of these trains ahead of some of the GWML IEPs which could comfortably arrive a few years late given the wiring delays.   


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: ChrisB on December 09, 2015, 12:56:38
The new trains for TPE are to be 125mph capable. Bearing in mind their operating area it could mean these will have to be bi-mode. My suspicion is another order for Hitachi's AT300s.

Or transferred from the GW franchise should First not retain it in 2019?


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: JayMac on December 09, 2015, 16:12:03
The new trains for TPE are to be 125mph capable. Bearing in mind their operating area it could mean these will have to be bi-mode. My suspicion is another order for Hitachi's AT300s.

Or transferred from the GW franchise should First not retain it in 2019?

Are you again assuming that the AT300 order is somehow tied to First Group?


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: ChrisB on December 09, 2015, 16:16:11
Being ordered by First & paid for by them....


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: paul7575 on December 09, 2015, 16:37:52
Being ordered by First & paid for by them....

Despite the impression sometimes given in press releases, the GW AT300s are being financed and ordered by a ROSCO (Eversholt) in the normal manner, and presumably leased from them:
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/traction-rolling-stock/single-view/view/first-great-western-and-eversholt-sign-hitachi-at300-train-contract.html
I'd seriously expect any new trains for the TPE franchise to be provided in the same way, and of course it is not yet confirmed at this stage that they will even be AT300s.

Paul



Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: JayMac on December 09, 2015, 16:40:16
Being ordered by First & paid for by them....

Ah... so you are still under that misapprehension. Despite it being pointed out to you previously that you are wrong. First Group are not buying ANY rolling stock. They, or a successor franchisee, will be leasing the AT300s.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: ChrisB on December 09, 2015, 16:44:37
Where's it mention anything about a successor franchisee? Or are you *assuming*


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: JayMac on December 09, 2015, 16:52:15
Oh FFS.  ::) >:(

There is scheduled to be a Greater Western franchise competition in 2018 for a start in 2019. I'm assuming sod all by suggesting there may be a different operator. Of course its not mentioned anywhere - the competition hasn't started yet. It could be First Group, Arriva, National Express, Sir Topham Hatt...

Instead of deflecting away from your error by making assumptions about my presumed assumptions, why not just fess up and say, oops I was mistaken about the AT300 order.



Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: a-driver on December 09, 2015, 20:53:44
FirstGroup have put all the work in regards procurement of these sets, unlike previous train orders the DfT have had no involvement in the specification for these trains which is why they will be retaining a buffet car.  It's also been reported that the cost of leasing an AT300 is substantially less than the equivalent government procured order which says a lot about the DfT.
FirstGroup could potentially make a pretty penny on these AT300's though.  With the delay in electrification these AT300's could still be switched to work to South Wales due to issues with the Severn Tunnel.  If that's the case you'd expect First to receive some form of compensation.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: JayMac on December 09, 2015, 21:08:12
FirstGroup have put all the work in regards procurement of these sets

But, importantly, not the money. And I'd suggest it is the lawyers who did most of the procurement work, not First doing 'all', by liaising between Eversholt, Hitachi and First.

First may have set the ball rolling, but that only happened after DfT approval. First will have no say on what happens to the Greater Western AT300 fleet should they fail to retain the franchise in 2019.

One thing First appear to be doing well though is playing the politics of rail franchising.

http://www.osborneclarke.com/connected-insights/news/burges-salmon-osborne-clarke-and-addleshaw-goddard-advise-360m-new-build-rolling-stock-deal/



Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: ellendune on December 09, 2015, 22:25:08
It's also been reported that the cost of leasing an AT300 is substantially less than the equivalent government procured order which says a lot about the DfT.

Because there seemed little immediate prospect of run-on orders and the concept really only being a UK thing, the first batch of trains would have carried much of the development costs so they would be more expensive.  The clever thing would have been for DfT to negotiate a reduction in the cost of their order if other UK orders were to follow. Anyone know if they did this?


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: stuving on December 09, 2015, 23:24:41
Because there seemed little immediate prospect of run-on orders and the concept really only being a UK thing, the first batch of trains would have carried much of the development costs so they would be more expensive.  The clever thing would have been for DfT to negotiate a reduction in the cost of their order if other UK orders were to follow. Anyone know if they did this?

The East Coast order and its option were quite a bit cheaper than the initial GW one. Hitachi may well have seen the whole programme as high risk at the start, and its timing relative to the financial world's little difficulty in 2007/8 added to that. If there is a cost difference between different SET users, then the franchise payment mechanism can I guess equalise that.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: ChrisB on December 10, 2015, 10:07:03
Instead of deflecting away from your error by making assumptions about my presumed assumptions, why not just fess up and say, oops I was mistaken about the AT300 order.

They, or a successor franchisee, will be leasing the AT300s.

That assumption above I was referring to. I accept that the ROSCO is ordering & investing in these trains. Your assumption is that you have NO idea how FGW/GWR arranged the lease/payment for these. They may have secured them for longer than their franchise. A wise commercial move possibly.



Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: JayMac on December 10, 2015, 10:26:11
They may have secured them for longer than their franchise. A wise commercial move possibly.

So, if we go with this latest assumption, that First Group have secured a lease for these AT300s beyond 2019, what exactly do they do with them should they not retain the Greater Western franchise? How is it a 'wise commercial move' to possibly be paying lease fees for rolling stock they can't use. Are you suggesting that beyond 2019 a Greater Western franchisee (if it's not First Group) will have to pay First Group who in turn pay Eversholt?

And don't suggest they could take them to TransPennine Express or another future franchise. Until yesterday it wasn't known if First Group would be running TPE. Your 'wise commercial move' seems more like commercial folly to me.

The AT300s have been ordered for London to the west services. That is, I confidently predict, where they will be beyond 2019, regardless of who the franchisee is. And that franchisee will be paying lease fees to Eversholt only. First Group will have no hold over them.



Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: ChrisB on December 10, 2015, 10:28:26
That's better. Yes, that is of course a possibility too. But you don't *know*.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: eightf48544 on December 10, 2015, 10:32:00
Another rumour I've just picked up suggests Arriva may look to Stadler GTWs for 14X replacements.

There is a thread where I suggested this previously but i can't find it.

Although whether articulated units with a through gangwayed power car in the middle would be too radical for the DfT/ORR is open to question.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: chuffed on December 10, 2015, 10:46:20
Can i just gently say to ChrisB and BNM that I am sure we would all appreciate a little less heat and a little more light in your robust exchange of views ?


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: John R on December 10, 2015, 12:05:02
That's better. Yes, that is of course a possibility too. But you don't *know*.

Doesn't the DfT normally stipulate that such contracts are to be novated to the new holder of the franchise. I would suggest it is highly implausible that they would be heavily involved in the procurement of the AT300s (as they have had to be to give the long term guarantee to Eversholt that there will be a use for them), and then give First an option or right to hold the government to ransom over their future.

If that were the case, then come the next franchise renewal, if First lost then they could take their toys away and leave a franchise without any trains for the SW. Or more likely sublease at a huge profit to the incoming franchisee which would make any competing bids unviable.

I'm aware that First did buy some HST's a few years ago, but this was rolling stock that was lying idle at the time without a use, so the government couldn't exert the same hold over them. In hindsight this was probably one of the most commercially astute things they did, as I suspect it has been a major factor in First holding on to the franchise, whilst the "owned" HST's are required to provide the level of service now needed.

 


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: ChrisB on December 10, 2015, 12:11:50
They certainly would on the 800/801s, but the AT300s (802s) were offered as an option by GWR & could easily be differently contracted IMHO.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: JayMac on December 10, 2015, 12:20:47
The legal teams that advised on the AT300s contract say they will initially be leased by First Greater Western Ltd. That word initially does rather suggest there could be a different lessee in the future. IMHO that initially refers to the period from introduction until the end of the current franchise in April 2019.


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: 4064ReadingAbbey on December 10, 2015, 14:46:19
It's also been reported that the cost of leasing an AT300 is substantially less than the equivalent government procured order which says a lot about the DfT.

Because there seemed little immediate prospect of run-on orders and the concept really only being a UK thing, the first batch of trains would have carried much of the development costs so they would be more expensive.  The clever thing would have been for DfT to negotiate a reduction in the cost of their order if other UK orders were to follow. Anyone know if they did this?

That is a partial explanation for the high Train Service Provision payments. Don't forget that the DfT has purchased a number of nominal 'diagrams' for delivery by Agility Trains, not trains. Agility Trains has converted this to the number of train sets it thinks it will need and purchased these from Hitachi. This contract is not at all like normal leasing contracts - the only similar one is for the Thameslink stock which has also raised questions about the DfT's competence.

The Intercity Express Programme covers more than the supply of trains - it includes raising, and paying for, the finance for the design, development, testing, manufacture, shipping and assembly and for the supply, kitting out and operation of the maintenance depots. By the time the trains enter service the first payment will be made some 8 years after Hitachi was selected as the preferred bidder. Just think how big the interest payments alone will be on 8 years of borrowed money...

So even if the development costs were to be spread over a bigger number of train sets the reduction in the Train Service Provision payments will not be significant as the development expenses will be masked by all the other costs. In my experience the cost of development of a product is small compared with the costs of setting up the production line, training the manufacturing staff, buying the components and systems, ramping up production, shipping, marketing, cost of returns and so on and so forth.

But it would be interesting to see if the DfT can get a reduction in the Train Service Provision payments...or even if it would tell us about it!


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: John R on December 10, 2015, 17:23:58
They certainly would on the 800/801s, but the AT300s (802s) were offered as an option by GWR & could easily be differently contracted IMHO.
But as explained, it would not make any sense for the government or Eversholt to agree any other terms. Given the short nature of the franchise, GWR is effectively acting as the procurement vehicle, in the same way that Southern was used as a procurement vehicle for some recent emu orders.

Also, First could not commit to a financial contract of that magnitude for which there is no guarantee of use after 3 years. It's directors have a fiduciary duty to shareholders that would not allow them to sign off such a deal.   


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: ChrisB on December 10, 2015, 17:50:25
So explain why (you think) the DfT didn't arrange the supply of the AT300s the same way as they did the 800/801s? Any why?....

Also...Southern aren't keeping (many of) tjose emus, are they? Bad example?


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: John R on December 10, 2015, 18:25:07
Possibly because even DfT recognise that the method of procurement is completely discredited (as everyone has known for years.)

And I used Southern precisely because very few of those units ever ended up with the franchise. They were used as a procurement vehicle because of the impending changes in franchise ownership.  The last AT300s are delivered a few months before the Greater Western franchise is due to expire in April 2019. So with HST's either needing significant work to keep them in use beyond the 2020 deadline, a deal had to be struck either a) to kick off the re-engineering or b) procure new stock. But no operator could commit to a long term lease, so there will be a guarantee somewhere that both enables and indeed requires them to hand them on to any successor franchisee. Similarly, the franchise competition in 2018 will require that the units are used.

We're clearly not going to agree on this, so why don't we just move on and let readers draw their own conclusion. But happy for you to have the last comment if you wish.



Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: ellendune on December 10, 2015, 21:21:28
The legal teams that advised on the AT300s contract say they will initially be leased by First Greater Western Ltd. That word initially does rather suggest there could be a different lessee in the future. IMHO that initially refers to the period from introduction until the end of the current franchise in April 2019.
But the norm would be that they were then leased by whoever takes on the GW franchise after that if they are deemed a franchise asset. N leasing company would order for such a short period without such assurances. Of course First Group might be that new franchisee. 


Title: Re: New rail franchise deals bring northern train improvement promise (BBC News)
Post by: JayMac on December 10, 2015, 21:40:22
Which is what I said earlier. My highlighting of the word initially was to show that the legal teams recognise there may well be a different operator beyond April 2019.

I do suspect though that First Group will get another extension as recompense for Network Rail's failings. I just hope not.

This thread did drift after post #5 was made and I share the blame for that. Perhaps we can get back to discussing the goodies that the long suffering passengers in the north are to get with their new franchises.




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