Great Western Coffee Shop

One of the problems with re-opening some of the lines that were closed 50 years or so ago is that things have been bit built on them, cuttings filled and embankments levelled.  Unwittingly BBC's Countryfile (http://www.countryfile.com/article/rail-trail-cycling-walking-paths) brings to your attention 10 routes which probably have less buildings, less pull downs and less fill ins than most.

"Change at Bodmin Parkway for Bodmin Town, Wadebridge and Padstow" ... by heritage train during the middle of the day in summer, with morning, late afternoon, evening and winter services provided by a GWR train that strengthens the Newquay branch during the day in summer.

Edit - Found missing u and l and corrected my spelling

Probably things have been built on them as well...

I am really struggling to digest this information, from Countryfile (http://www.countryfile.com/article/rail-trail-cycling-walking-paths):


If you went all the way round the whole of North Devon, it wouldn't add up to two hundred miles.  :o

I think 180 miles qualifies as 'nearly 200 miles'.

https://www.devon.gov.uk/tarka-trail-circular-routes.pdf

They're assuming you park your diesel-guzzling 4x4 monster truck at one end, then have to cycle the whole trail out and back.   Now if everyone brought their bicycle to Barnstaple by train ...

Of relevance to reopening railways though is that most of that 180 miles never was railway and wouldn't make a sensible rail route.

I can definitely recommend the Tarka Trail cycleway though.  Very scenic and quite a bit of railway interest too.

All that really matters is whether there is a political will to get them reopened.

Any significant reopening involves a re-engineering process which will include strengthening embankments, re-profiling cuttings, improving access, and in places re-routing; in all probability line speed would need to be increased as well to make the route viable.

The Portishead line shows how even an extant route can need plenty of investment to make it a viable modern passenger route; meanwhile the GWSR gives us an example, near Broadway, where what used to be double-tracked main line embankment has had to be stabilised (and narrowed) to allow a 40km/h light railway to run over it. So the odd bit of missing civil engineering, and occasional obstacles on the route, should not be considered stoppers - if, and this is the rub - there is a will to get on and do it.

The Formantine & Buchan Railway is probably the longest rail-trail in Britain, at 53 miles. But I can't see it reopening as a railway any time soon...

https://www.railscot.co.uk/Formartine_and_Buchan_Railway/

There have been a number of occasions when there were more than a dozen bikes on the last train back from Barnstaple on a Sunday.

Or travel as a passenger taking advantage of one of several cycle rental outlets.

I would agree that's what we think and so what happens with a new route. But are we sure our thinking is right or have we got too much fixated with the need for fast, reliable and ultra-safe journeys from station to station?

Let's take a line from "Rockingham" to "Morfa James".  16 miles and 33 minutes by road in a private car, 50 to 55 minutes by bus. The railway from Rockingham still runs past "Marshy Kilo" - about 9 miles from Morfa James and takes 18 to 20 minutes.

Now - re-open the railway for the 9 miles. Spend £8 million per mile to achieve an onward journey time of 20 minutes (total 45 minutes with change, 40 minutes if you run a through service) or £20 million per mile to achieve a 12 minute service - a potential travel time of 30 minutes.

I'm not so sure that the people of Morfa James would say "40 minutes is too long - we need 30 minutes, at the extra cost that will make the investment £9,000 per head of population rather than £3,600."  I suspect that a 40 minute service, which would be providing additional capacity from Marshy Kilo into Rockingham too, would do rather well.   A service frequency that's conducive to daily returns, seats for all on the trains such that they can work / sleep / chat in comfort (but a bit rattly is fine; WiFi good but no need for power on such a short journey), and a 99% reliablity with 97% within 10 minutes of schedule will be fine.

Morfa James is a lovely town, by the way - and I suspect that such a service would encourage growth and do it a power of good. With positive community sentiment, issues of concern would be far more a call for more frequent services, early services on Sunday and evening return trains if not initially provided, and for more carriages when it became full and standing.  Virtually no-one would be saying "this takes too long in transit".  Further gains to be made by ensuring that there's good and cheap parking at the station, and that there's a bus that actually connects with the train to complete door to door journeys.  Final requests for connection at Marshy Kilo to the cities of Sarum and Londinium to work better if they don't from the start.

Place names altered in the interest of talking about principles - but the data used is with a thought to specific real places. Passenger and community reaction judged by what I've seen elsewhere at first hand

I've just realised that the revised costings for Portishead come out at somewhere between £15 million/Mi and £17.5 million/Mi. However I think this is a special case - most of this is apparently required to straighten the Avon Gorge and re-locate the Clifton Suspension Bridge a few metres to the left of its current site.

Where does your figure of £20 million/Mi come from?

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/West-of-Exeter-Route-Resilience-Study.pdf

quotes £655 million to £700 million for a "low cost" option, or £875 million for a proper mainline job for works to open a line from Exeter via Okehampton and Bere Alston to St Budeaux

23 miles (Meldon to Bere Alston) of new line
20 miles (Crediton to Meldon) of serious upgrade
6 miles - Exeter to Crediton that's already got regular passenger services
7 miles - St Budeaux to Bere Alston that's already got regular passenger services

As an example that could be ...

£20 million a mile for reinstated route, £14 million a mile for serious upgrade and £10 million a mile on the sections that already carry regular daily passenger trains. Total £870 million.

Even the lowest cost option's something like £15 million a mile for re-instatement, £10 million a mile for serious upgrade and £8 million a mile where there are already regular trains - total £649 million.

Granted the report states that there are significant contingencies in there ...

The Network Rail report also states that Meldon Viaduct would need replacing. This again depends on what option may be used to cross it,  or build a new viaduct. I have been told that the Meldon Viaduct company think it could be repaired for around £15-£20million for a single line of track. This is much cheaper than a new viaduct. This could make a significant difference to costs.

The reports figures also include the inevitable 66% contingency on top, or optimism bias as you state Grahame

Every re-instatement is going to have its special case expensive sections.    Option 4 (alternative route B) from the Network Rail report quotes £470 million for a line from Newton Abbot to Exeter via Heathfield and Christow, which is about 5 miles of just operational line  and 15 miles of reinstatement.  At £20 million per mile (re-instated) and £14 million per mile (upgraded) that comes in at £370 million - you need to go up to figures like £25 million per mile for re-instatement and £19 million per mile for upgrade to reach the NR quoted £470 million.

Agreed I'm including contingency.  Also noting the report is dated September 2014.   Have prices gone up since then, or would improving techniques allow savings to be made?