Great Western Coffee Shop

All across the Great Western territory => Fare's Fair => Topic started by: grahame on August 12, 2018, 04:08:28



Title: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: grahame on August 12, 2018, 04:08:28
Here we go again ... from The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/aug/11/rail-timetable-chaos-govia-transpennine)

Quote
An increase of more than 3% is expected to be applied to some fares in the new year, including season tickets. Fare prices are linked to the rate of inflation recorded for July, which will be unveiled on Wednesday.

Quiet news time - announce it for and get maximum press coverage in August where there is media to fill.

Implement it at the start of January - a quiet news time when you again get maximum press coverage ...


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: paul7575 on August 12, 2018, 15:22:43
Don’t they usually run the story again in September as well, when DfT confirm what was already assumed in August?

Paul


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: TaplowGreen on August 13, 2018, 07:14:10
Prices rise as customer satisfaction with punctuality/reliability falls to as low as 62%, as has been reported this morning on the BBC.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: old original on August 13, 2018, 22:19:06
...and of course the unions start bleeting on,  in an attempt to pretend they're on the side of the passenger whilst slamming in pay claims to, at least, match inflation if not exceed it. Where do they think the money comes from??


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: JayMac on August 13, 2018, 23:15:54
There's no general election on the horizon* so it's doubtful HMG will freeze fares rises or lower the percentage.



*Unless the government falls over Brexit. Which isn't in the realms of fantasy.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: SandTEngineer on August 14, 2018, 21:37:45
Well.  From the BBC:
Quote
Rail fares: Grayling urges inflation change to slow rises

The rail industry should change how it calculates fare rises and staff wages to cut costs for passengers, Transport Secretary Chris Grayling has said.

He has asked train operators and unions to use a different inflation measure, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), to determine rail fare and wage increases.

This is lower than the current tool used, which includes mortgage costs.

But the RMT union said it opposed Mr Grayling's call - made hours before January's rail fare rise is announced.

Fares are expected to go up by 3.5% at the start of the next year.

The exact increase will be announced on Wednesday when official inflation figures - used to set the price increases - for July are published.

Economists are predicting that the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation - the number used by the Department for Transport to set rail fare increases - will increase by 3.5%.

This year rail fares rose by 3.6% - the biggest jump for five years.

Mr Grayling said he wanted to see "lower levels of increases for passengers in future".

"This will require a move away from the use of the Retail Prices Index in the way the industry operates to the more commonly used Consumer Prices Index," he wrote in his letter.

He said pay deals should also be based on the same, lower measure.

"I support paying rail staff decent wages for the hard work they do, but I also now believe it is important that pay agreements also use CPI and not RPI in future," he said.

Mr Grayling urged the rail companies' membership body the Rail Delivery Group to help the government move towards using CPI for future pay deals.

He said the move would help the industry to "keep costs down".

The letter was sent to all the rail unions, with a separate letter sent to Paul Plummer, the chief executive of the Rail Delivery Group, asking for his support.

Shadow transport secretary Andy McDonald said Mr Grayling was in charge of how much firms could raise regulated fares by.

"He has the power to enforce this, he's just choosing not to.

"The truth is that our fragmented, privatised railway drives up costs and leaves passengers paying more for less," he said.

Mick Cash, leader of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union, said it would fight any attempt to impose a "pay cap" on its members in a drive to protect private train company profits.

"This is a basket-case government and a lame duck transport secretary continuing its all-out war on staff and passengers alike," he added.

The TUC union earlier calculated that rail fares had risen over twice as fast as wages over the past decade.

Wednesday's fare hike comes after a summer of chaos for many train customers, after a rail timetable overhaul saw scores of cancellations and delays.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: plymothian on August 15, 2018, 02:30:37
Will someone buy Mick Cash a Thesaurus; that man gets right on my Bristols!  (Or perhaps they have and he has now added "lame duck" to his vocabulary.

The UK has a real problem with public transport in that it does not see it as beneficial to the population and therefore must be self-sufficient, hence high bus and rail fares because the user must pay.

The railways have never been self-sufficient since they were built. 


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: a-driver on August 15, 2018, 03:21:08
Quote
Rail fares: Grayling urges inflation change to slow rises

The rail industry should change how it calculates fare rises and staff wages to cut costs for passengers, Transport Secretary Chris Grayling has said.


If you want to cut costs for passengers let’s start by looking at large projects like the electrification of the GWML. On time and on budget is it?!


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: JayMac on August 15, 2018, 05:34:50
Shameless but quite canny of Chris Grayling.

It is within his purview to change the fares rise percentage for regulated fares. Its his department that regulates them.

To mention rail staff pay deals in the same breath puts into the mind of passengers that it is those (very generous compared to other industries) annual pay increases that are driving up fares.

Of course, one can be cut without the other. But is Chris Grayling spoiling for a fight with the rail unions?

I can see him saying that he tried to cut the fares increase but was prevented from doing so by the unions.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: TaplowGreen on August 15, 2018, 06:04:44
Quote
Rail fares: Grayling urges inflation change to slow rises

The rail industry should change how it calculates fare rises and staff wages to cut costs for passengers, Transport Secretary Chris Grayling has said.


If you want to cut costs for passengers let’s start by looking at large projects like the electrification of the GWML. On time and on budget is it?!

Do you understand the difference between CAPEX  and OPEX?


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: a-driver on August 15, 2018, 06:59:52
Do you understand the difference between CAPEX  and OPEX?

Yes.  Capital and Operational expenditure.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: TaplowGreen on August 15, 2018, 09:01:33
Do you understand the difference between CAPEX  and OPEX?

Yes.  Capital and Operational expenditure.

OK assuming you actually understand what they mean as well as the abbreviations, you'll appreciate that citing the cost of capital projects in the context of staff costs/pay rises doesn't really work?



Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: grahame on August 15, 2018, 10:16:34
From The BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45194019)

Quote
UK inflation rose to 2.5% in July, after holding steady at 2.4% in the previous three months as the cost of transport and computer games increased.

It was the first jump in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure since November and was in line with forecasts.

Meanwhile the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation fell to 3.2%.

The Department for Transport uses the RPI figure to set the maximum annual increase for regulated rail fares.

Does the RPI include the cost of transportation?   If so, isn't there an element of the fares going up this year ... because they went up last year?  A system that - to a very limited degree it must be admitted - stokes its own inflation?


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: stuving on August 15, 2018, 10:35:43
Does the RPI include the cost of transportation?   If so, isn't there an element of the fares going up this year ... because they went up last year?  A system that - to a very limited degree it must be admitted - stokes its own inflation?

Yes, but it's only a very small effect and not worth eliminating. In 2013, the latest year for which I have RPI weights sitting around doing nothing, rail fares were weighted by 0.6% in the total. Weights are adjusted each year to reflect the amount of that spending in the total of consumer expenditure that RPI measures.

That may be rising, if fares overall are going up faster than other prices, and/or if more of them are being paid. In 1996-8 that weight was 0.4%, but going back to 1989 it was 0.7%. If you go back further still, I'm sure rail fares were even more important as a share of spending.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: martyjon on August 15, 2018, 11:16:05
Does the RPI include the cost of transportation ?

Don't know without googling RPI and CPI but a major difference in the two is RPI includes mortgage costs whereas CPI does not. This is a legacy of Mrs. Thatcher. When wages were steaming ahead during her tenure of No. 10 state pensions were uplifted by the average of wage inflation and so her administration changed the state pension uplift rate to be based on the RPI which was lower until some bright spark looking for promotion to her cabinet pointed out that the RPI included mortgage costs for which most state pensioners did not of course have and so was born the CPI which subsequently became the trigger point for state pension uplifts and was thus the ridicule of the infamous 50p state pension rise in Gordon Browns first budget. This was subsequently revised to the triple lock of the 2010 coalition government which was the higher of, 2 1/2 %, wage inflation or CPI and ever since wage inflation and CPI have remained below 2 1/2 % much to the chagrin of the present administration who have an ongoing exercise to define a fairer method of uprating the state pension, fairer to whom.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: JayMac on August 15, 2018, 11:30:07
The January 2019 regulated fares price rise will be 3.2%.

Barring any political intervention...


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: didcotdean on August 15, 2018, 14:24:12
State Pension rises were still governed by RPI until 2011 which was the first year of the triple lock. Oddly this didn't make much of a difference; by 2017 pensions had risen by 19.3% under the triple lock regime but would have risen by only 19.1% under RPI.

RPI has a built-in tendency to overstate the overall inflation for prices that are volatile, ie going up and down periodically (*). This didn't really show up when everything tended to rise in step, but in the more recent lower inflation environment these such as food, petrol and clothes have had an odd effect.

RPI is still calculated because of its use in certain contractual arrangments, in particular UK index-linked gilts. There is no reason though for it to be used as a benchmark for other prices.

(*) as a consequence of using a Carli rather than Jevons index


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: want2workrail on August 15, 2018, 18:41:38
For me the fare rise is very straight forward:  it's conservative view vs socialist view.
Conservative View
Demand is outstripping supply - mainly due to outdated infrastructure.  How do you get rid of the bottom tier of the commuters? Simply price them out of the system.  Income is probably still matched or increased due to excess in demands. This is all about profit and the money-generating system of profit for shareholders and some investment.
Socialist View - a Nationalised Railway
This is where the focus is on the consumer - the customer. Regardless of cost, a service is provided for the best interests of the passenger.  The introduction of standee tickets on routes which so over capacity that getting a seat is practically impossible.  Yes you may get some income for future investment, but you provide the SERVICE for the PASSENGER even if it costs more than the revenue generates as it's a passenger SERVICE to serve the people.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: stuving on August 15, 2018, 19:17:35
Does the RPI include the cost of transportation ?

Don't know without googling RPI and CPI but a major difference in the two is RPI includes mortgage costs whereas CPI does not. This is a legacy of Mrs. Thatcher. When wages were steaming ahead during her tenure of No. 10 state pensions were uplifted by the average of wage inflation and so her administration changed the state pension uplift rate to be based on the RPI which was lower until some bright spark looking for promotion to her cabinet pointed out that the RPI included mortgage costs for which most state pensioners did not of course have and so was born the CPI which subsequently became the trigger point for state pension uplifts and was thus the ridicule of the infamous 50p state pension rise in Gordon Browns first budget. This was subsequently revised to the triple lock of the 2010 coalition government which was the higher of, 2 1/2 %, wage inflation or CPI and ever since wage inflation and CPI have remained below 2 1/2 % much to the chagrin of the present administration who have an ongoing exercise to define a fairer method of uprating the state pension, fairer to whom.

As history, that's a bit garbled. CPI was developed by ONS (as it then wasn't) and other European statistics agencies as a harmonised index, or at least with harmonised methodology (the weights are national ones). It was introduced in 1996, and renamed CPI when it was adopted as the preferred national index. Being told by the statisticians that is removed an upward bias in RPI helped to sell it to the politicians. It replaced RPIX, which was the variant of RPI without mortgage payments.

CPI omits a lot of housing costs, notably mortgage interest and indirect taxes (rates and council tax). They were left out because there are serious issue with both, in theory and in practice. They also differ widely between countries, so no agreement was possible initially. And despite their best efforts, there is still no agreement (though there was a plan to introduce an experimental index of owner occupiers' housing costs based on nett purchases, i.e. essentially new houses).

ONS has a preferred national index called CPIH, which includes some of those missing items. It makes no attempt to measure house owners' actual expenditures; instead it estimates an equivalent rental for houses (shades of Schedule A!). The inclusion of uncorrected interest payments in an index that is used as a measure of inflation is a serious distortion, as it produces shift (an error) due to inflation.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: martyjon on January 02, 2019, 19:04:59
I need help to get my head round this one.

All day today news bulletins have stated claims by the government that 98% of fares paid are reinvested in the railways.

Really, whos trying to kid who.

Lets look at the complimentary 2%.

Of my £15.50 Advance Single from Bristol To Paddington is only £0.31 needed to contribute towards GWR's costs of wages, fuel, stock leasing, NR track access, shareholder profit and those things I've not mentioned, not that there has been a First Group dividend for years.

I don't think so.

Perhaps the wallies at the DfT meant to say that 98% of the profits on the railways are reinvested in the industry which is what has been stated in the past I would believe it, not 98% of the farebox.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: rogerw on January 02, 2019, 19:25:43
Contrasting news reports today.  Grayling, as usual, is blaming someone else for the fares rise - the standard Conservative whipping boys, the unions.  However on local radio this morning GWR placed the blame squarely on the government stating that they imposed the fares rise.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: grahame on January 02, 2019, 19:44:03
There were a couple of Chris Grayling's statements I didn't understand.

1. He talked of the greed of the unions being responsible for the rises being so high.   Now I thought the rise was based totally on the price rises in the year to last August and nothing to do with the industry's labour cost. Or is he blaming the whole general inflation on the unions?

2. He talked about how busy trains are now, with passenger numbers doubling, so there was a need to put up fares by a bigger percentage to provide for them. But surely with passenger numbers so much higher, the cost is spread across so many more people and the need for a big percentage rise goes away.   Could it, perhaps, be that the headlines fares are going up because so many more railcards are coming in .. rumour has it that the next one will be a tall person's railcard for anyone over 6' 3".


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: Robin Summerhill on January 02, 2019, 20:30:00
There were a couple of Chris Grayling's statements I didn't understand.

1. He talked of the greed of the unions being responsible for the rises being so high.   Now I thought the rise was based totally on the price rises in the year to last August and nothing to do with the industry's labour cost. Or is he blaming the whole general inflation on the unions?

2. He talked about how busy trains are now, with passenger numbers doubling, so there was a need to put up fares by a bigger percentage to provide for them. But surely with passenger numbers so much higher, the cost is spread across so many more people and the need for a big percentage rise goes away.   Could it, perhaps, be that the headlines fares are going up because so many more railcards are coming in .. rumour has it that the next one will be a tall person's railcard for anyone over 6' 3".

These things aren't for understanding, they are for believing unquestioningly... That's what politicians want you to do.

Grayling was spinning for all he was worth. I too heard the "union swipe" on radio 4s Today Programme this morning. The first thing I thought was "I see - nothing to do with track access charges, nothing to do with shareholder dividends, nothing to do with any price increases for goods and services that a TOC buys, just the b;*/*dy unions" Absolute drivel.

This man could be outflanked by Arthur Scargill's cat...


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: Red Squirrel on January 02, 2019, 21:06:41
.. rumour has it that the next one will be a tall person's railcard for anyone over 6' 3".

Wouldn't that be ironic, with me becoming eligible for a wrinkly's wrailcard next year...


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: grahame on January 02, 2019, 21:11:05
.. rumour has it that the next one will be a tall person's railcard for anyone over 6' 3".

Wouldn't that be ironic, with me becoming eligible for a wrinkly's wrailcard next year...

So you're as tall as Chris Grayling are you?


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 02, 2019, 21:57:29
Leaving the chest beating & politics  (on both sides) to one side, just remember this.......the poor bloody customers are paying higher fares for a lower quality of service, the worst for more than a decade, despite colossal investment from the taxpayer, and that's something for which the rail industry and the Government  (as well as the Unions) share responsibility.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: Adrian on January 02, 2019, 22:21:52
Perhaps the wallies at the DfT meant to say that 98% of the profits on the railways are reinvested in the industry which is what has been stated in the past I would believe it, not 98% of the farebox.

Is even that true?  What percentage of costs are paid to the ROSCOs?  I was under the impression that they were primarily investment companies, and their profits went into pension funds and the like - or are those not profits if you are committed to giving a certain rate of return to investors?


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: stuving on January 02, 2019, 22:25:08
There were a couple of Chris Grayling's statements I didn't understand.

1. He talked of the greed of the unions being responsible for the rises being so high.   Now I thought the rise was based totally on the price rises in the year to last August and nothing to do with the industry's labour cost. Or is he blaming the whole general inflation on the unions?
...

Grayling was referring (maybe because he was asked) to what he said last August about lower prices rises that RPI+0 - see this post earlier in this thread (http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=20205.msg244129#msg244129). Of course it was all political point-scoring, rather than a serious suggestion.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 03, 2019, 10:47:36
Do you not think it's a little ironic how the RMT froth at the mouth re:fare rises yet in the next breath demand above inflation pay rises for its members? 🙂


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: Red Squirrel on January 03, 2019, 11:21:54
So you're as tall as Chris Grayling are you?

A couple of centimetres tallerer, by my reckoning! I am taller than the average squirrel.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: Dispatch Box on January 03, 2019, 11:51:00
Contrasting news reports today.  Grayling, as usual, is blaming someone else for the fares rise - the standard Conservative whipping boys, the unions.  However on local radio this morning GWR placed the blame squarely on the government stating that they imposed the fares rise.

Yes I heard last night on bbc 1 news, That they said the railways keep the 98 percent of fares, what happens to it then? Does NR have it for track works. As was stated it goes back into the railways.

As for the tall rail card, bunkum!, Not fair and might be seen as discrimination. I would not qualify as I am only 5,8. Have been since 15.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: didcotdean on January 03, 2019, 12:10:17
This was an early RMT response to the potential change inflation index for wage negotiations:

https://www.rmt.org.uk/about/policies/research/pay-and-conditions/resisting-attempts-to-sideline-the-retail-prices-index-rpi/

RPI is really only produced these days because it is contractually hardwired into some government contracts, in particular index-linked gilts and National Savings Certificates, although the latter will change for new issues later this year (and the former really ought to as well). Its methodology has been thoroughly discredited by neutral statisticians.


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: Richard Fairhurst on January 03, 2019, 15:41:10
Do you not think it's a little ironic how the RMT froth at the mouth re:fare rises yet in the next breath demand above inflation pay rises for its members? 🙂

You could make a case that the RMT's job is to fight for its members; FirstGroup's job is to produce healthy returns for its shareholders; and the Government's job is to improve the lot of the travelling public - and the only one of those achieving its aims right now is the RMT...


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: Clan Line on January 03, 2019, 17:05:25
I don't think there would be many takers for the Tall Persons' railcard  :D     I am "only" 6 ft and already have my knees jammed up against the back of the set in front of me in 150s, 158s, 159s, 165s, 166s, etc, etc, etc.     If I was 6 ft 3 I would sell the Fiesta and buy a Mondeo !


Title: Re: Fare basket to increase by 3%
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 03, 2019, 18:09:45
Do you not think it's a little ironic how the RMT froth at the mouth re:fare rises yet in the next breath demand above inflation pay rises for its members? 🙂

You could make a case that the RMT's job is to fight for its members; FirstGroup's job is to produce healthy returns for its shareholders; and the Government's job is to improve the lot of the travelling public - and the only one of those achieving its aims right now is the RMT...

Yep - but that doesn't diminish the irony - as you say the RMT are the only one of the three achieving its aims, mainly because they have the ability to hold the other two to ransom. There used to be quite a few trade unions in that happy position, most now have lost the ability to do so as technology and society have moved on and the World has passed them by.

With advancing automation and driverless technology etc not far around the corner, the bruvvers of the RMT would be well advised to make as much hay as possible before the sun goes down...............or keep praying for  Corbyn to win an election..............although they, like all of his supporters, would most likely be desperately disappointed if he did within a year or two.



This page is printed from the "Coffee Shop" forum at http://gwr.passenger.chat which is provided by a customer of Great Western Railway. Views expressed are those of the individual posters concerned. Visit www.gwr.com for the official Great Western Railway website. Please contact the administrators of this site if you feel that content provided contravenes our posting rules ( see http://railcustomer.info/1761 ). The forum is hosted by Well House Consultants - http://www.wellho.net