Great Western Coffee Shop

The situation with Cross Country cancelling services through Dawlish because of 'Forecasted Severe Weather' is now beyond ridiculous! Five days in a row during the past week, resulting in dangerously overcrowded GWR services and angry customers.

It is about time that the DfT insisted that Cross Country had suitable rolling stock for the service.   >:(  >:(  >:(

They can insist all they like but unless they stump up the cash Voyagers will continue to operate XC for quite a few more years yet sadly.

How many HSTs do Cross Country have?   Could they have a few more from cascade leftovers to help relieve congestion on their voyagers?   And in stormy times split their route at either Exeter or Bristol Temple Meads such that the HSTs run a sea wall shuttle to Plymouth and beyond, cross platform change at those times for through passengers?

Notwithstanding an overcautious attitude, this is an issue which affects Dawlish for what, maybe 10-15 days a year?

In that context, all talk of avoiding routes and new/different rolling stock is at best whimsy. The railway has far more pressing issues to deal with.

Currently 5 operating 3/4 diagrams. There of course will be spare HSTs going but it’s that same old question sadly ooooooooz gonna pay for them?

So your thinking all voyagers from Edinbugh or Glasgow central to Plymouth or Penzance all Terminate at BTM, Then Bristol to the west country to save long delays.

Also to prevent water lashing over railway at Dawlish could NR Put some sort of glass on the wall to keep back waves. This would be a permanent solution to the problem, and cheaper than diverting the lines.

All trains would terminate on platform 5, and ones from Devon on platform 6, then passengers would then just need to go to opposite end of the platform to continue their onward journey. Fine by me.

Would Hitachi make some more I E T,S for Cross Country, they would be great and be fitted out in their colours.


Then the line from Barnt green to yate, then could be electrified.

I would like to see a glass wall that would survive very long.  Even if it could survive the impact of the large stones that the waves throw about the place with great force, it would very soon become a frosted glass wall, from the abrasion of the smaller stones. 

I did not realise that stones were whipped up, thinking it was only water. Can be damaging to trains aswell.

Yes that is partly why even HST's do not run in some conditions, but a glass wall would be there all the time. If you find a piece of glass on a beach that has been in the sea for a while, the sharp edges have been worn away and the surface frosted. That is just sand and water. 

A really rough sea will throw large stones around and can throw quite large boulders about. 

I agree on all counts ... and was only suggesting a contingency plan - or rather contingency plan modification - to have the Cross Country HSTs stay south during these periods; there will be HSTs / Castles based west of Dawlish for the forsessable future, so depots and an overnight facility that knows about them if they don't migrate north at the end of the day ... and I'm sure that Craigentinny can cope with a couple more voyagers that would normally be serviced in the far South West.

Yes - there are more pressing issues. Fortunately, issues can often be dealt with in parallel and not in sequence!

It perhaps highlights the poor decision and shortsightedness to semi retire and use "sawn off" HSTs to do short Devon and Cornwall stopping services, for which they were never designed, rather than long distance routes for which they were intended and are clearly still needed, or at least could be far better utilised?

How many years have these services been suspended in advance for?
Surely the weather conditions have been the same for years and years, just seems people are being overly cautious more often

A long time I think.

In advance? Since the Dawlish closure, I think.

Lines are open now, are they?.

I am not convinced that the weather conditions have been the same for years.
The sea level has increased, only marginally I know, but still an increase.
Wind speeds may also have increased.

Add this to an abundance of caution, and poorly designed rolling stock, and it is not surprising that weather related cancellations are increasing.

The sea level has gone up by around 60mm since 2002 which I think is when the Voyagers were introduced.  How much difference that makes at the sea wall I don't know, but I suppose there must be some.  How many more years have the Voyagers got I wonder, and how much will the sea level increase in that time?

Having a keen interest in these things, I can't conclude that there has been such a dramatic rise in sea level in just 16 years. In support I would direct observers to this data-rich site from the NTSLF at Newlyn (https://www.ntslf.org/products/sea-level-trends)

I agree, see levels are rising but not that fast. Very roughly 1mm a year has been the average for the last century or so.
Many experts are however forecasting a faster increase in years to come as polar ice melts, and as ocean water becomes warmer and therefore expands.

So I used
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
which shows an increase from 26 in 2002 to 87 now, and also says levels are increasing at 3.2mm a year.

Maybe I've not understood the page, in which case happy to be corrected. That will teach me to post about things I don't really know about.  What do they say about a little knowledge?

I think the difference is that one is a global average and the other is measurements at Newlyn. 

To quote from the NTSLF site:-


The difference (0.3mm/yr) is most likely the ongoing isostatic rebound from unloading the mass of the Ice Age glaciers > 10,000 years ago;


For the most common liquids (https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/cubical-expansion-coefficients-d_1262.html), water has one of the lowest coefficients of thermal expansion, so that will not be a major contributor. Other geological processes have a far greater effect.

A little knowledge is step along the way from no knowledge to a lot of knowledge, isn't it?    

This forum is founded on those who don't know or who aren't sure about something feeling they can ask and being filled in ... and at the same time helping build up a resource for all those others who have wondered the same thing.  Keep posting  :D

The south of England is falling (due to the rotational effect of isostatic rebound - the north of Scotland is rising and by more) by rather more than that, with a figure quoted here (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiP3eTs2KffAhVBzqQKHboPB8UQFjAIegQIBBAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bigf.ac.uk%2Ffiles%2Fpapers%2FBingley_SOFI_NEF0121791_Report.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1eswlISmWkwaE2njkDIZsr) of 1-2 mm/yr. That figure depends on how you measure it, though. I have a vague recollection that the same is true of "absolute" sea level, with the satellite measurements not agreeing with local ones.

In any case, from the point of view of what happens to trains at Dawlish, mean sea level hardly matters - it's how high high tide gets that matters. The NTSLF site does estimate that too:

So it's not as simple as you'd think (even if you don't think it is simple).

Does that include the consideration of storm surges?  And wave heights?

If it does then the average is not meaningful as they happen infrequently so the true amount would be hidden. 

If it does not then they need to be taken into account.

The problem then measured not by an average but a number of times in a fixed period a critical amount is exceeded? 

Thank you for the encouragement grahame.

Though having seen the later posts, I think I shall nod wisely as if I understand, step back from the discussion, and remember to check tide times and heights and the long range weather forecast before booking my next trip to the south west.

It is reminding me rather of the thread that talked about the pressures put on the track and trains where the line went from level to a rising gradient, and the flexibility built in where that was a change to an artificial structure such as a flyover.  I am just reading on this one too ... happy to chip in with questions, but in "read mostly" mode!

Combination of both of these ideas...

On Stormy days, use the surplus HSTs as a mobile wall that can be dragged out of sidings at Exeter Riverside and parked on the Down Main.  Then use the Up Main bidirectionally; Voyagers will be protected from the salt water by the HST Glass Wall.

Could you not leave it parked up there all year round just in case? In the summer the buffet could be used to sell refreshments to those walking along the sea wall.  ;)

Are you kidding? With a permanent buffet on offer, Broadgage would never go home! 🙂

Seen reports that a number of the ex-GWR HSTs pressed into service in Scotland before any refurbishment have been leaking water in through the roof. All those years at Dawlish taking their toll, maybe ...

OH DEAR!, Time to pop into B - Q, To get some mastic filler to repair the cracks, I think.

Wrong type of all year round drizzle...   ;D

Paul

After yet another day today (18/12/18), that makes 9 days in December alone!  Services from Totnes were decimated with a couple of two hour gaps in the service thanks to a couple of GWR train faults on top of all XC services between 0830 and 1500 [bar the single HST diagram] being cancelled - not even any XC Zulus between PNZ/PLY and NTA or additional stop orders on GWR services. Several pax booked on the 1050 ex-TOT towards BHM had to wait until 1228 to get a service to EXD in order to continue their journeys. Not good enough really.

If that's the case, and they were going to have to wait the thick end of 2 hours for a service, why weren't they put in a cab to Exeter? It's hardly a long haul from Totnes, did anyone request this?

Would that be fair on Class 802 passengers to see a fully stocked and crewed buffet selling espresso coffee, ice-cold drinks and hot meals as forlornly sip their warm beers and instant coffees and nibble at their cold snacks...?

I can't find an online version at the moment, but published in the Plymouth Herald recently was an article about MPs calling for a solution to Crosscountry cancelling trains ... force them to use GWR's former HSTs. 

Last one of those (non-Castle class) leaves in March, I'm hearing....something I'm sure GWR would have told the Herald if they'd actually done their job properly and called their press office to enquire.

That maybe why they haven't put the story up online

I haven't seen this particular version of the story, but the version I'd heard was that XC were to be 'told' to obtain 'a couple' of ex-GWR HST sets once becoming surplus to requirements and being put into storage (as not all HST sets going off lease will be reallocated elsewhere). These would be based at Laira and used on the short Bristol to Plymouth/Paignton/Penzance services unless required to shuttle through Dawlish.

Should that be in "The Rumour Mill"??   No - perhaps not; there various wisps of smoke blowing around at the moment, is it's pretty likely there's a fire somewhere  ;D  ;D.

From https://www.networkrail.co.uk/feeds/network-rail-ready-to-tackle-winter-conditions-heading-towards-the-west/ talking about keeping running through this week's weather


Noting that Cross Country aren't running along the seawall because of tidal conditions, I'm guessing they don't count high tide and waves as "weather" through which it's important for customers to complete their journeys ...

1A88, 1C90 and 1A90 all lost engines yesterday due to being struck by waves on the sea wall.  Looks like new GW fleet may also be susceptible to the vagaries of the Dawlish weather. 

Richard Clinnick on Twitter just now
https://twitter.com/clinnick1/status/1093062698823270400?s=21

It was a last minute set swap on the day which saw the 800s sent to the SW on the 06:35 (returning on the 12:04 (1A88)) after problems getting sets of North Pole depot that morning.

So have the 802s been tested in equally harsh conditions? It’s shocking that the 800s malfunctioned after some Dawlish seawater as it’s inevitable these sets will be called upon to run to Plymouth and Penzance

Why is it inevitable?   I thought the 802s were uprated to give them the power to get up the Devon banks.  I was amazed therefore that an 800 was sent to run west of Exeter! 

I would suspect that the 800s can get up the Devon banks but may loose some time ... which in the event of there being only 800s at Paddington is better than a cancellation.   

800s are regularly seen west of Exeter currently.

800's seem to turn up on the London - Paignton service; no Devon Banks. The 7.03 Paddington - Paignton is often a 800 and has passed Dawlish this morning and is on time to arrive at 10.11 and the wind is really blowing this morning.

10.07 XC Paignton - Manchester cancelled today Paignton- Exeter St Davids