Great Western Coffee Shop

With 2018 drawing to a close, it might be fair to say that there have been a few surprises (good and less so) and some expectations for the railways have been confirmed or dashed.

Now, despite Niels Bohr's dry assertion that "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future", would any forum members like to stick their necks out with their own predictions for our railways in 2019? Good or bad, likely or fanciful?

Firstgroup gets swallowed up not before handing back the keys to the SW franchise.
Mark Hopwood gets a knighthood for services to the rail industry.
IETs finally start operating on the ECML and everyone complains the seats are too hard.

Another prolonged Dawlish closure.
GWR has a problematic new timetable introduction.
MTR become majority or sole operator of SWR.
Chris Grayling inexplicably continues as Transport Secretary (although, see below).

Away from the railways...

Brexit doesn't happen and there's a General Election with Sajid Javid leading the Conservatives. Labour form a minority govt. and a new referendum results in a second 'leave' verdict.

Liverpool win the Premier League. England win The Ashes and Somerset win the County Championship.

GWR stop providing toilet paper in their station toilets, because its got too expensive, and everyone has to bring their own.

They actually start work on Reading Green Park?

....that railway privatisation collapses on 30 March 2019, after exactly 25 years of existence....

So that means all the present train operators would go as well, Oh...

We have Network Rail, Now heres to Network Trains, Just one company.

Crossrail central tunnel doesn't open in 2019.

345s take over from 387s on TV stoppers. Everyone complains about lack of seats and no toilets.

I thought all trains now had to have toilets, I thought it was now the law.

Nope ... don't think the Crossrail trains have them, underground certain doesn't.  On the national network, I don't think there are any on the Stourbridge Junction to Storubridge Town service.  It might be part of a franchise requirement.  What they must be by law from the end of 2019 is equivalent for access - so accessible available or no loos at all.

Some of Southern's commuter stock don't have loos either. Must be very pleasant if you are stuck outside Victoria in the rush hour.

My prediction, which I so hope is unfounded, is that there will continue to be the impression from the relevant authorities of a lack of urgency to build and open Bristol Portway Parkway on the wonderful Severn Riviera Express.

SWR have pledged to have toilets on all trains. Can't remember when by though.


Same with SWR. If I have had a few drinks after work, I will take the first train to Raynes Park, using the toilets there then board the correct train home. Apparently there is a toilet at Bookham Station but I think you have to ask at the ticket office for a key. The ticket office closes at midday.  :'(

A very experienced electrification engineer considers retirement after 43 years service

That reads very much ... not ... lighter side stuff.

A decent service which does not reward failure with rising fares (and those who have failed with rising salaries), and all the "record levels of investment" we've been told about for the last decade reflected in performance would be nice, so that we don't have a repeat of this story at the same time this year;

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/27/rail-punctuality-train-13-year-low


That's a hope, rather than a prediction!  :)
 

Not considering the 50 years together with a gold watch? If such a thing exists these days... :P  That said of course, 43 years these days is an excellent achievement and feat of survival.  Very well done indeed to you

Melksham hat on. I look forward - with some degree of hope - to a much higher percentage of trains running to the timetable published twice a year.  And to those trains running within 10 minutes of their scheduled time, and with sufficient capacity not to put people off.   So much work was done in 2018 to bring that optimism.

With good continued marketing and promotion - and there are different mainsprings on that bow this year - passenger numbers should start to blossom again.  For the year to March 2019, ORR data to be published in December will still be muted by the massive service losses from the annual timetable during 2018, but for the year to March 2020, and the ORR publication in December 2020, we could break the 100,000 barrier.

Trying to be optimistic, I do hope that all the work done over the past three years finally delivers more trains, on time and with better information when things go wrong.

Further cost rises again push back the re-opening of the Portishead line.

What a job it was to try and get a picture to update on this forum, It doesn't show a list of pictures, just file names, making it difficult to upload, Anyone else found this?

The money has been allocated to the West of England Partnership for that. If it doesn't get built this year, they have to give it back. So my first prediction is that they open the station just before midnight on 31 December 2019.

... but don't change the timetable. Open station but no services scheduled to call.

Like IBM  ;D

Where is this station supposed to be?.

Rather like Kenilworth Station last year.

A complete year's worth-

January Relief that Chris Grayling is leaving DfT is shortlived, when it is revealed that Boris Johnson, on his third (I think) comeback replaces him, as part of a deal for his support for whatever deal on Brexit/referendum the government puts forward. At his first public visit to a railway site, he is seen looking whistfully at overhead wires but before he can arrange a zipwire ride for the press a senior civil servant persuades him it is perhaps a bit risky

Abellio hand back all franchises to the government or franchise partners.

February Consternation at GWR when Wabtec announce that the earliest they can start work on the conversion of GW's bi-mode class 769s is 2021 or 2022. A call goes out to heritage railways for old class 37s to tow underused Electrostars to cover, but the scheme is abandoned when it is discovered that Wabtec are the only company able to refurbish them and they will not be able to take on the work until 2024, when they hope to finish the bi-mode class 769 order.

Mitsui hand back all franchises to government or franchise partners,

March Late winter snow from a beast from the east brings rail system to a halt. Boris Johnson photographed with garden centre snow shovel at Paddington, coinciding with filming of a new series of Paddington 24/7

SNCF hand back all franchises to government or franchise partners.

April Consternation when someone at GWR remembers that it has promised to return all DMUs other than Turbos to the leasing company before the end of the year. Call goes out to heritage railways for any suitable usable stock. Bubblecars from Mid Hants and Wensleydale seen on driver training runs on the Trans Wilts line.

Serco hand back all franchises to government or franchise partners.

May All services to Devon halted when an IET hits a rabbit which disables the train.

Stagecoach hands back all franchises to government or franchise partners. When Richard Branson hears about it he falls out of his hammock on Necker and hands his shares back to the government too.

June Didcot Railway Centre volunteers stock for extra trains for Glastonbury. However it turns out Dean three axle stock incompatible with remaining Sprinters and borrowed Pressed Steel heritage stock, so offer declined.

Trenitalia hands back all franchises to government or franchise partners.

July Boris Johnson in trouble with the press for muttering the McGonagall's Tay Bridge Disaster audibly under his breath despite a senior civil servant hissing at him that it is inappropriate at opening of a new bridge.

National Express announce that they are handing back their franchises, but are embarrassed when it is pointed out at their press conference that they have already done so.

August A scrap dealer makes a fortune by selling the Pacers he has agreed to buy back to the leasing company for three times the sum he agreed to pay for them.

A national shortage of barbeque charcoal brings a summer series of RMT strikes against DOO to a premature end.

September Panic at First Group when TfL confirm that they will start CrossRail/Elizabeth Line services between Paddington and Reading and they suddenly realise that the loss of fare income renders the GWR franchise unviable. First hand franchise back to DfT.

MTR announce withdrawal from SWR. Roscos acquire First Group for a pound in the hope that it might secure the leasing income for the outstanding undelivered new trains. After RMT announces a new series of strikes against proposals for DOO, the Roscos hand the remaining First franchises back to DfT.

October Go-ahead Group and Arriva DB, the last remaining franchise operators announce a new joint venture, British Bahn, to bid for overall franchise for all the network, backed by Roscos. A new blue and white livery is unveiled, and a deal is done with Network Rail for use of the double arrow logo.

November Williams report published. It concludes that the franchise system is not broken, all it needs is a few new entrants into the franchising system and market mechanisms will cure all problems. Story receives little press attention as the main story is about Boris Johnson being photographed with his new mistress.

December Chaos on the network when new BB/Network Rail timetable collapses. RMT calls a strike for extra money for taxi fares to get home.

Can we apply for a franchise with little money in the bank, little experience and no equipment?

Oops, sorry that is the Marine side of DfT.

Plus we need to ensure that our Ts&Cs are carefully copied from a pizza delivery company...   :o

Just goes to show the Dft couldn't organise a pizza up in a takeaway ..... ???

Many a true word spoken in jest ... I think it was the first company that ran Wales and West who - a D&B revealed - were a star up with more enthusiasm than substance.

That was Prism Rail - a bunch of bus managers. They made a very nice return by selling out to National Express after a few years: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/jul/19/5

MTL (Merseyrail/RRNE) was the other company that sprang to mind on CyclingSid's comment!

Frighteningly, the T&C comment wasn't in jest - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46748193 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46748193)

It really beggars belief doesn't it?  Also makes the point with CyclingSids observation about no experience or equipment. That should end up well.

In theory they have the experience as senior management is ex 'My Ferry' which was the successor to the failed 'Sea France'.

I am sure it will all be ready at about the time the last driver waiting at Calais dies of old age.

Seriously I hope the DfT have not specified the seats or the refreshment facilities.

There was a time when P&O had never operated a ship either.  So long as the crew and maintenance team know what they're doing, the rest can learn on the job. Or go bust. They aren't the only people who have been asked to work new routes, curiously avoiding France.

Thinking about other operators of transport who started from having no transport, there is at least one who went from selling records to running trains and planes, although he has a beard. Brittany Ferries, started by a pig farmer, was founded in 1972, when established operators proved reluctant to open a route from Roscoff to Plymoff. The first sailings were the following January. So it's not impossible.

My second prediction for 2019 is therefore that nothing will happen on the route between Ramsgate and Ostend, other than Mr Grayling blaming greedy sailors for putting the price up. Work to enlarge the berths at Ramsgate and dredge the channel out of the harbour will be held up by the discovery of a rare Anglo-French spotted newt colony, members of which claim asylum when spotted, claiming that they fear deportation to France because they are regarded as a delicacy there.

Go-op could maybe think about running open-access shipping, as it seems a lot quicker and easier to organise than trains.

have you ever tried the roads on Isle of Thanet to escape from Ramsgate ……….. it will be bedlam with lots of HGVs and in 2020, Royal St George's are hosting the Open Golf championship; Kent CC were so concerned 3 years ago that road network in area could not stand that level; of traffic they and event organisers are investing £m's into the railway infrastructure to deter road users.

HMG and DfT have missed the window to update Dollands Moor rail freight yard, even if the work stated today it would 18 months before it would be back to capacity it was designed for 30 years ago

[SPOILER ALERT] Improvements to roads and railway following the success of the new ferry service will be in my predictions for 2077. [/SPOILER ALERT]

The Home Secretary orders the flooding of the Channel Tunnel in order to stop Migrants.  The right wing JRM, the new trade secretary supports him on the grounds that it is no longer necessary as our major trading partner is now Eritrea to who we plan to export widgets that a mate his is developing in return for their valuable resources of premium quality sand. 

JRM? I don't think he will get as far as 2019 for quite a few months. Instead, I reckon BoJo will announce a new trade deal with the us, from his flat in New York.

All of the I.E.T Trains will be completely refurbished to rid them of the uncomfortable seats, that people hate.

Wake up mate!  ;)

 ;D ;D ;D

Deleted due to content.

Ah ... I'm noting smileys and good hearted banter here - noting written too seriously or in real expectation.   When I write in the lighter side and crack the odd joke ... I do rather expect to get the same in return.  ;)

Serious further comment - the Coffee Shop is not a customer service organisation in the traditional way and we have no guarantee to get things answered / no targets of "90% answered in 24 hours" or anything like that.  We have remarkable members who give such a high proportion of well thought and thorough answers that we often put some professional organisations to shame ...

Well, I'm afraid that post really 'takes the biscuit'....  Before you joined the forum we got on reasonably well and we are quite happy to share information on the forum to 'enlighten' posters who ask genuine questions out of curosity to 'learn more'.  I've tried to help where possible, but with that post I won't be contributing to the forum anymore.

Well, I'm afraid that post really 'takes the biscuit'....  Before you joined the forum we got on reasonably well and we are quite happy to share information towards the forum to 'enlighten' posters who ask genuine questions out of curosity to 'learn more'.  I've tried to help where possible with that post I but won't be contributing to the forum anymore.
[/quote]


I have only asked questions which I believed to be right, and from information I have been able to obtain on my own, Please do not go, You did an excellent job on the filton bank thread and it was appreciated.

Learned posters indeed. Plus me

I forecast that Go-op will announce plans to launch an open-access mission to the planet Mars by 2035. "We were hoping to run a train from Taunton", a spokesman will say, "but the bureaucracy got the better of us. This will be easier - it's not rocket science."

You forget.  Rocket science is easy.  It is the engineering that is difficult.

I do hope this is not true. I and many others have learned a great deal from yourself

I had ... noted how you post, and wasn't far out in my guessing of your situation.

Virtually every member on the forum is friendly and helpful. When I read something that takes me aback, comes across as brusque / hurtful / uncaring, I'll not jump to a conclusion.  And - listening, reading, gently asking it turns out than offence was not intended.  It works two ways - I can be pretty good at getting my wording wrong too.  I also know the frustration of asking a question and not finding an answer - but hitting out towards those who don't answer (because in all honesty they don't know, or don't have the time / resource in their full lives ) isn't going to help.

Happy to write further - if you want - by personal message. But please bear in mind that I'm very fully tied up at the RUH today (sitting bedside, supporting and writing).  Nothing life-threatening ... but the forum isn't exactly top of my list.  In case anyone is worried, I will make FoSBR tomorrow.    Why not come along there and meet some of us real people, Dispatch Box?

I am glad the forum provides you with some daily interest.  As Graham has said we are often able to find answers to questions posed but there are occasions when would be contributors do know the answers but by reason of their employment are not allowed to share information with us.  There are other occasions when they are simply too busy to respond and the moment passes.  So I am sorry you didn't get answers you were seeking but for the reasons I have just given I doubt it was anything personal.

As others have said SandTEngineer, who I have met on a couple of occasions, has a wealth of knowledge from a lifetime in the industry.  I hope you, S&T, will feel able to reconsider your decision and continue to impart the benefit of your experience when time allows.

I met one of the Go-op folks yesterday; their scheme is far from dead, but interplanetary craft are far too ahead in the mists of time for them.  Class 769 are more on their radar, and of course they're limited to 4'8.75" tracks.

There according to platform staff, maybe a change of seating as I was told, GWR have had loads of people grumbling and would still prefer the HST to the IET. This was because I witnessed a customer get off a train in Gloucester and had a go at the platform staff about the interior of these new trains, when they started running into Gloucester. he did really get a strop on.

I have removed the affending content of that post for the benefit of the forum, Sandt was back here just now, and I request him to delete his and we will get back to being a friendly forum. Sorted it out with graham.

I do apologise if my joke wasn’t written clearly, I never mean to cause offence to anyone on here and I seem to have no issue with anyone here. I do not feel it is needed for one and another to not get along - at the end of the day we are here to add our opinions and every now and again have a joke

Regards,
Charlie  :)

Sorry Charlie, I feel bad as we seem to have lost sandt, did not mean this to happen and got rid of that awful post. He is good, he is better than any of our government.
Again sandt I appoligise for the silly posts. And we welcome you back!!!.

I go away for a few days and...

I also hope that  is not the case, SandTEngineer - you  have taught  me practically all  I know on you  specialist subject, and on why things happen on railways generally. At the risk  of sounding  like a German politician, please stick with us. We'll get rid of Luxembourg instead if it annoys you.