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All across the Great Western territory => The Wider Picture in the United Kingdom => Topic started by: Timmer on January 02, 2020, 10:19:48



Title: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: Timmer on January 02, 2020, 10:19:48
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/northern-rail-franchise-grant-shapps-cancellations-train-fares-a9267261.html

Quote
Northern Rail is to be stripped of its franchise because of its “unacceptable” performance, transport secretary Grant Shapps has said.

“I’m simply not prepared for the service on Northern to carry on as it is and I am taking action,” he told BBC Breakfast.

It is “completely unacceptable” for trains to be “routinely” late, he said. ”I simply will not put up with that.”
Continues...


Title: Re: Arriva loses Northern Franchise
Post by: bobm on January 02, 2020, 10:27:26
BBC are suggesting the decision hasn't been made yet but could be in "a matter of weeks".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50971629 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50971629)

Quote
The government has described Northern rail services as "unacceptable" as delays continue to plague its trains.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he is "not prepared" to tolerate the commuter line's poor performance.

In October, Mr Shapps said he had taken steps that could lead to the operator being stripped of its franchise.

Northern rail said the late delivery of big infrastructure projects had disrupted its services.
Giving evidence to the Commons' Transport Select Committee last year, the transport secretary said that he had issued a "request for proposals" from the company and the Operator of Last Resort.
This could lead to Northern rail's service being brought under government control.


Title: Re: Arriva loses Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on January 02, 2020, 14:08:06
BBC are suggesting the decision hasn't been made yet but could be in "a matter of weeks".

From Admins at Northern Resist

Quote
I’ve just spoken to the press association, the reporter spoke to Grant Schapps directly this morning & said he confirmed Northern would be stripped of the franchise, however, further comments from the DfT state that Northern may be offered a short term contract with notice to improve!!

So it would appear that they will be stripped of the franchise and offered an operating contract instead with a short timeframe on it ... so not necessarily an end to Arrive at Northern.   Good day to dilute rail change news with rail fare changes - there's only so much news that can be printed "above the fold".  Smoke and mirrors job - headline "I will remove the franchise", subtext "but give them an alterative".   

I can't help wondering how many of the problems are correctly laid at the door of Northern and how many o f the problems there are external to them - Network Rail, Government, RoSCOs not meeting delivery promises and rather than risk DB suing the government, the DfT is offering them a sweetener to keep them onside.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: stuving on January 02, 2020, 14:27:48
I suspect that the contract includes a process for termination, and that requires that some of the other measures for dealing with poor performance happen first. There is something similar in the GW one, and I'd expect similar provisions (but not so similar it'd be worth ploughing through the legalese). So, has there already been a formal notice that improvement is needed?


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on January 02, 2020, 15:23:08
Analysis from another source:

Quote
Why does a Conservative Transport Secretary feel under added pressure ‘to be seen to be doing something’ or ‘to give the illusion of doing something’?  Memo to Perm Sec, DfT: “My [new] ‘friends in the north’ are giving me grief!”
 
21 new MPs in North West, 12 of which are Cons gains from Lab.
9 new MPs in North East, 7 of which are ditto.
8 new MPs in Yorkshire, 7 of which are ditto.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: Noggin on January 02, 2020, 18:08:31
Two points to consider:

1) Much of the current woe is down to the DfT - insisting on new stock and picking fights with the unions over DOO whilst not ensuring that infrastructure improvements were made. So this could be a shot across the bows - you guys created this, I'm going to make you sort it out, no palming it off on local politicians or operators of last resort. Justification for Downing Street's big plan to shake up the Civil Service.
2) The Conservatives will have an eye on the May elections and want to put Burnham (et al) on the back foot.

On the basis of the second point, I'd also expect a fight to be picked with Sadiq over Crossrail and TfL's finances, but that's a whole other thread


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: Celestial on January 02, 2020, 19:47:48
An alternative message from Grant Shapps on the Northern Rail situation.

"Northern Rail has been in a mess, ever since the nationalised Network Rail failed to electrify the lines to Blackpool and through Bolton on time. To cap a completely botched program, the failure to hand back the Blackpool line on time, resulting in drivers unexpectedly having to renew their route knowledge, which resulted in more disruption, around the time of the disastrous May 18 timetable change, also caused when timetable planners at Network Rail gave insufficient notice to Northern to enable rosters to be worked out. (That was catastrophic for Thameslink too, but we gave them more attention, as my Department is much more interested in making sure the South's trains run smoothly, as that's usually where we get all our votes from, 2019 excepted.)

Furthermore, my predecessor, in sitting on the T&W Application to improve the infrastructure along the Oxford Road corridor for two years, has meant the infrastructure that Northern would led to be in place isn't, resulting in some of the reliability issues that both Northern and TransPennine face. I'm still not going to approve it, but might ask for a further review by Network Rail which will kick it into the long grass for another year, by which time I might have got a decent job in the next reshuffle.

Industrial relations has been poor too, as a result of the obligation in the franchise which we put in to move to DOO operation, and which has led to numerous strikes. Not that we supported management during this period, as we wanted to make sure that they took all the blame for the disruption.

So, we're planning to renationalise the franchise, just as the last of the new trains come into service, enabling us to take credit for withdrawing the last of the hated Pacers, before finding an even more complex public/private partnership structure which will keep civil servants, lawyers and bean counters busy for the next ten years, until yet another restructure of the railways. Isn't privatisation great?"

 


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: TonyK on January 02, 2020, 20:58:34
At the moment, under the current privatisation framework, Northern operate the trains the government specifies to the timetable drawn up by the government, along the routes "maintained" by the government, and with the DOO plans insisted on by the government. Isn't it just a little risky renationalising it? Because once the TUPE'd staff have got their new uniforms and signed up to the new pension scheme, would that signal an end to the dispute over DOO by either the government or the unions forgetting all about it? Doubt it. And won't anyone notice that the most antiquated and non-disability legislation compliant train left on the creaking network are the ones run by the government in the North it was going to save?

Grant Shapps may well want to embarrass Andy Burnham, but he starts at a disadvantage. All the transport under the control of Mayor Burnham through Transport for Greater Manchester works fine, and is steadily improving, with the imminent opening of yet another tram route. The Mayor has also been vocal in pointing out the Cinderella nature of the national rail network in his neck of the woods. He is certainly not as green as he is cabbage looking.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on January 04, 2020, 07:50:21
From City Metric (https://www.citymetric.com/transport/source-northern-rail-s-problems-isn-t-franchise-holder-it-s-government-4884)

Quote
The source of Northern Rail’s problems isn’t the franchise holder: it’s the government

The article agrees that things are very wrong indeed at Northern, but goes on to point out that the same parent does pretty well with franchises like Chiltern, and blame should not be laid there to any major extent.

To lay blame personally at the door of Grant Shapps who only became secretary of state for transport on 24th July 2019 would also be incorrect - any involvement of his prior to last summer was only peripheral, to the extent of supporting the government in what it did with rail under his predecessors and the previous prime ministers.

A Secretary of State who looks to lay blame incorrectly and take credit and political advantage of the fruition of corrections that were in the pipeline before he took over shows himself as lightweight - a small man who whilst he can be worked with cannot, perhaps, be fully trusted.  I hope that where he takes such a position it's purely as "needs must" in the blare of publicity, and behind the scenes he's looking at prioritising the getting things right, rather than getting credited in his career for things becoming merely less shambolic short term under his guardianship.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on January 04, 2020, 19:30:17
A further long analysis from the Yorkshire Post (https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/people/this-is-why-stripping-northern-of-its-franchise-wouldn-t-solve-yorkshire-s-rail-issues-1-10182110)

From deep within the text, I quote the section "strikes" and it's my highlighting.

Quote
Northern has been crippled by industrial action and an impasse in relations between the company and the RMT union, which represents rail staff.

The dispute originated over the role of train guards, which Northern could potentially make redundant as changes in technology reduce their necessity.

DfT targets are for half of future services to be controlled only by the driver, with no need for a conductor to be on board. The guards currently open the doors and ensure passenger safety.

Things came to a head at the end of 2018, when the RMT offered to suspend planned strikes in return for a guarantee that guards would remain, but on November 30 decided to continue with the walkouts.

The saga did not come to an end until February 2019. By this point, strikes had taken place every Saturday since late August 2018. The RMT are now satisfied that guards will be protected under the current franchise agreement.

Interesting choice of words and phrase in what's overall an article that seems pretty accurate.   Is there a suggestion there that should the Northern operation move away from the current franchise (by it to a contract or a nationalised operation) that the whole business of Driver Only Operation would raise its head again if the government chose to go that route?

I am very much aware that all this Northern talk is about what happens in 3 months time, and we have no announcement here as to what's to happen with GWR in 3 months time.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: TonyK on January 05, 2020, 13:54:08
Whatever happens, it looks as though the Christmas truce is over in the proxy war between the government and the rail unions.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on January 11, 2020, 14:39:18
An analysis of current problems at Northern by Railfuture (https://www.railfuture.org.uk/article1849-Northern-franchise)

Quote
The irony is that things will get better as the new trains come in and the peak of driver training commitment passes on Northern, so the real lessons may never be learned. A cynic might say that Mr Shapps will be told by his officials at DfT that a good “kick up the backside” solved it. This must not be allowed to happen as it would be deeply insulting to many of the people on Northern who are very capable and who have been dealt a rotten hand of cards to play, when the dealer was in many cases the DfT itself.

The cynic might put it another way.  That the current Arriva team have struggled to do what they can against great adversity - for sure not got it all right, but been dealt some bad cards.  Now that it's at the low point and looks like it's likely to get better - new trains at last, people trained and used to running it - the government can step in, let these improvements happen and claim the credit for themselves and their MPs.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on January 28, 2020, 02:45:58
It looks like the sh** may hit the fan on Wednesday with a widely [rumoured/expected] announcement of operation of Northern being transferred to the Operator of Last Resort (and if the underlying problems are not addressed/able by that operator, what happens?)

From The BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51237055) an hour ago:

Quote
Northern Rail passengers have faced chaos since May 2018 when new timetables were introduced. This week a decision is expected from the government on whether the firm will lose its franchise over "unacceptable delays".

Taking Buckshaw Village as an example ... here is what one commuter (yes, he really is a commuter with a daily pair of journeys to and from his place of work) or several quoted has to say:

Quote
Ian Smith, 47, is a civil servant who lives in Buckshaw Village. He takes the early train every morning to Manchester Victoria.

Ian says he loves Buckshaw and its "fantastic facilities", but says the train service into Manchester is "lacking".
"We're running old trains," he says, "and for the money that you pay for a ticket to go to Manchester, I think the actual service is atrocious."

For Ian, the main issue is the late running of trains, which delays him arriving at work. He says the information on platforms and apps is incorrect.

"It puts you in a negative mood before you start your day," he says.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: IndustryInsider on January 28, 2020, 09:11:35
I’m afraid this one stinks of most of the problems being outside of Northern’s control but most of them set to be resolved soon. 

Bringing in an ‘operator of last resort’ now looks good for the government in that they can claim their actions have sorted out the problems, when in reality it would have sorted itself anyway, and no quicker than had they let it be.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: PhilWakely on January 28, 2020, 09:13:37
I’m afraid this one stinks of most of the problems being outside of Northern’s control but most of them set to be resolved soon. 

Bringing in an ‘operator of last resort’ now looks good for the government in that they can claim their actions have sorted out the problems, when in reality it would have sorted itself anyway, and no quicker than had they let it be.

Another tick in the box for the New Northern Tory!


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: JayMac on January 28, 2020, 19:52:26
I don't think this will be the last franchise failure this year. Who will be next? Place your bets...

South Western Railway?
Transpennine Express?
ScotRail?

The slow, painful death of the current franchising model...


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on January 29, 2020, 01:52:40
Press release from Railfuture

Quote
Northern re-nationalisation: "Nothing will change"

Grant Shapps is widely expected to announce the re-nationalisation of the Northern franchise. Commenting on this, Railfuture director Ian Brown said:

“So Northern have finally taken  the rap for the failure of the north’s rail network to adapt to a world where rail should play its part in the form of an efficient growing network.  An operator of last resort (i.e. the government) is to be brought in to manage the operation.

We should all hang our heads in abject, cringeable shame.

The RMT Executive Committee is happy seeing this as part of their campaign to nationalise the rail network . This model alone will fail just as Northern did.

The DfT must take its share of the blame too, being responsible for the decisions (or lack of them) that have caused the problems. Taking back the franchise will do nothing for users unless the operator and Network Rail work together to find an operational solution that is reliable in the short term, and which increases capacity in the long term.

The baying masses have their trophy like a fox being torn apart. The problem is that this doesn’t achieve anything. All the issues on the Northern network remain.  Nothing will change.

The fundamental problem of lack of infrastructure in the North must be tackled. We need to double the capacity of the North’s railway and attend to pinch points to make it reliable. An understanding of the laws of physics were pioneered in the North, silly to forget them.

There needs to be a strong client in the North and a period of sustained investment in infrastructure and service development, better optimising the needs of regional and currently, subordinated, urban travellers. Choices need to be made and the operational practices need to be improved to provide a 7 day reliable railway.  Passengers should be the focus, not disdained and regularly left in the cold.

The degree of naivety to think that all comes right with the fox hunt is at such a level where even the rail industry is embarrassed. But political populism is not about finding solutions, it is about allocating blame and gaining a honeymoon period even if you were already married to (and largely the cause of) the problem in the first place. The DfT cannot wash its hands of Northern franchise performance issues largely of its own making, nor hide behind an operational review of Network Rail to conclude that the North needs investment in more rail capacity.”



Notes to editors:

Ian Brown CBE FCILT is Railfuture's Policy Director and speaks on behalf of the Railfuture Board

Railfuture’s own in depth analysis of the issue can be found on https://railfuture.org.uk/article1849-Northern-franchise

Railfuture is the UK's leading independent organisation campaigning for better rail services for both passengers and freight.

Railfuture's website can be found at: www.railfuture.org.uk

Follow Railfuture on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Railfuture

For further information and comment please contact:

Bruce Williamson, media spokesman
[I have details if Coffee Shop forum members need them]

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Railfuture Ltd is a (not for profit) Company Limited by Guarantee. Registered in England and Wales No. 05011634.
Registered Office: Edinburgh House, 1-5 Bellevue Road, Clevedon, North Somerset, BS21 7NP (for legal correspondence only)
All other correspondence to 24 Chedworth Place, Tattingstone, Suffolk IP9 2ND


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on January 29, 2020, 05:10:28
From Sky News (https://news.sky.com/story/no-more-delays-for-northern-decision-as-franchise-reaches-the-end-of-the-line-11920532)

Quote
Time is up. Northern is expected to be stripped of its rail franchise today and for commuters it can't happen quickly enough - rail travel in the north of England should come with a health warning.

It's not unique to the north but the combination of poor management, chronic under investment and an all round miserable passenger experience has become a running joke among Northern's users.

Quote
And most symbolically of all....they still run some services with Pacer trains that offer a glimpse back to how most commuters' grandparents would have travelled.

They are old buses converted into trains and just don't cut it when we live in an era of artificial intelligence and driverless cars.

Silly question ... the pacers may have used bus designs but were any of them actually converted from "old buses"? - or is Sky embellishing the facts for press effect?


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: RichardB on January 29, 2020, 07:35:23
From Sky News (https://news.sky.com/story/no-more-delays-for-northern-decision-as-franchise-reaches-the-end-of-the-line-11920532)

Quote
Time is up. Northern is expected to be stripped of its rail franchise today and for commuters it can't happen quickly enough - rail travel in the north of England should come with a health warning.

It's not unique to the north but the combination of poor management, chronic under investment and an all round miserable passenger experience has become a running joke among Northern's users.

Quote
And most symbolically of all....they still run some services with Pacer trains that offer a glimpse back to how most commuters' grandparents would have travelled.

They are old buses converted into trains and just don't cut it when we live in an era of artificial intelligence and driverless cars.

Silly question ... the pacers may have used bus designs but were any of them actually converted from "old buses"? - or is Sky embellishing the facts for press effect?

Well, none were converted from old buses, that's for sure.  Pity it has come to this for Northern.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 29, 2020, 13:32:43
BBC News - Troubled rail firm Northern brought under government control
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-51298820


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on January 29, 2020, 14:29:31
BBC News - Troubled rail firm Northern brought under government control
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-51298820


and https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-decision-on-northern-rail - official DfT site ...

Quote
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has announced that, from 1 March 2020, the government will take over running services on the Northern network.

The government recognises that the rail network in the north has fallen far short of delivering the service passengers need and deserve.


Quote
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said:

This is a new beginning for Northern, but it is only a beginning.

Northern’s network is huge and complex and some of the things which are wrong are not going to be quick or easy to put right. But I am determined that Northern passengers see real and tangible improvements across the network as soon as possible.

The railways were invented in the north. Last year the Prime Minister promised that we would give the railway back to the places it was born, giving more power over services, fares, and stations to local leaders.

Today (29 January 2020) marks the first small step towards the north taking back control of its railways and its people taking back control of their travelling lives.

There will be no more leaving behind. This government is committed to levelling-up.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: rogerw on January 29, 2020, 14:33:51
I see they propose to bring in additional electric trains from elsewhere to increase capacity. 365s anyone?


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: Noggin on January 29, 2020, 15:00:24
Silly question ... the pacers may have used bus designs but were any of them actually converted from "old buses"? - or is Sky embellishing the facts for press effect?

Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong...

I think the prototype LEV vehicles were closer to the originals, but roughly speaking they were Leyland bus body parts on an underframe with wagon heritage.

I imagine that it was one of those projects where someone compared the price of a Leyland National and a PEP-era unit and thought 'there must be a cheaper way to do this', but I suspect that by the time the things met mainline standards, not to mention into multiple units, they were probably less of a bargain and 150/2's wouldn't have been that much more expensive.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: Red Squirrel on January 29, 2020, 16:59:16
From the DfT website (https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-transport)

(https://zemblanity.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/dft_northern.png)

Probably a fair summary!


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: Richard Fairhurst on January 29, 2020, 19:39:13
Very good piece by Stephen Bush in the New Statesman: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2020/01/real-problem-northern-rail-government-not-train-companies . It's all worth reading, but this is the crux of it:

Quote
Private operators perform well when providing services for a strong and effective state-run body like Transport for London, or when they have established, effective management structures like Chiltern Railways, but in both cases, they also require the helping hand of investment from local or national government.

Contrary to the easy myth that the story here is of private companies failing to provide adequate services to the north of England, the real problem here is a failure to manage the terms of franchises well by the Department for Transport (take the troubled East Coast line, back in public hands again after a second successive train company found that it could not meet the punishing financial obligations imposed upon them by the government) and a long-running failure to invest in public transport by successive political parties.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: TonyK on February 16, 2020, 19:46:33
Very good piece by Stephen Bush in the New Statesman: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2020/01/real-problem-northern-rail-government-not-train-companies . It's all worth reading, but this is the crux of it:

Quote
Private operators perform well when providing services for a strong and effective state-run body like Transport for London, or when they have established, effective management structures like Chiltern Railways, but in both cases, they also require the helping hand of investment from local or national government.

Contrary to the easy myth that the story here is of private companies failing to provide adequate services to the north of England, the real problem here is a failure to manage the terms of franchises well by the Department for Transport (take the troubled East Coast line, back in public hands again after a second successive train company found that it could not meet the punishing financial obligations imposed upon them by the government) and a long-running failure to invest in public transport by successive political parties.

Sums it up nicely.

Northern have been running the services with the rolling stock the government let them have for the fares the government told them to charge to a timetable drawn up by the government, and fighting the government's proxy war with the unions. Hardly an independent private sector model. Were Northern still running Pacers because they wanted to, because their customers wanted them to, or because that was all they could get? I am not having a go at the present government alone on this. Like nuclear power, GWR electrification, HS1 for that matter and any number of other vital projects, HMG dithered and made do with extensions to what was already there rather than making proper long term plans. The debate on what should replace the IETs at the end of their life should be starting in earnest in just a few years time, as the ideas of what sort of railway they will be running on begin to firm up. It won't happen though. They will have expensive emergency refurbs to keep them going for another 10 years.

It's a shame that passenger journeys will not be affected, though.


Title: Re: Arriva to lose Northern Franchise
Post by: grahame on February 17, 2020, 07:12:49
Northern have been running the services with the rolling stock the government let them have for the fares the government told them to charge to a timetable drawn up by the government, and fighting the government's proxy war with the unions. Hardly an independent private sector model. Were Northern still running Pacers because they wanted to, because their customers wanted them to, or because that was all they could get? ...

And the government takes over just as the worst point in terms of passenger service is being passed - teething troubles on new trains being sorted and deliveries into operation in full flow, major electrification work completed (well - as far as they are now going), and the Williams review due to be published to show planning for the future.  I expect we'll see lots of positive news about how it moved positively forward after HMG took over, without too much reference to how Arriva did most of the work ahead of time to make such positive move happen.



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