Great Western Coffee Shop

Yes, that was my understanding as well. And as most major storms affect Ireland before they hit Britain, they ought to have the lion's share of the naming.

Talking of which, who decided Denis was going to be called Dennis? The former is the more normal spelling as a first name, the latter as a surname.

On my Stormy Zee comment, i get the feeling that not everybody understood that it was actually an illusion to Stormzy, the 'popular musical artist', as us old fogeys would have him known.  ;)

Dennis is the usual spelling of the boy's name in the Netherlands, and the Netherlands joined the storm naming group this year.

No this time the Met Office was the one that declared the next name from the joint list. The other unusual aspect was that they did this early at the yellow warning stage albeit one blanketing the whole country. Met Éireann at that stage hadn't issued any warnings at all. The potential for the storm had been determined by models at least 9 days in advance.

Presumably in honour of Dennis the Menace.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f7/Dennis_the_Menace_and_Gnasher_the_dog.jpg/250px-Dennis_the_Menace_and_Gnasher_the_dog.jpg)

I understand now! I'm more partial to the popular combo Zed Zed Top myself. That and the Lancashire Aha tribute band, Ey-up.

………...doesn't appear to be any advice re: Storm Dennis on the GWR website yet...…..presumably a full service is expected to operate?  :)

I spotted one


Edit to add ... couple of Carmarthen extensions too such as

Yes, although it's set to be a wet, windy and thoroughly miserable weekend, the winds are not near to the same strength of last weekend so none of the blanket 50mph speed restrictions are likely to be needed.

That being said, it's still quite testing conditions.  Flooding at Roche has led to the Newquay branch being suspended and there is a 50mph restiction on until 4pm tomorrow between Truro and Exeter - ticket restrictions lifted as a result.

Something blocking the line near Northfield has caused the the Redditch-Lichfield services to come to a standstill.
1V58, the 0900 Glasgow-Truro, seems to have reversed at Kings Norton and appears to have travelled via the Camp Hill line and re-entered New Street.

Edit (16:00): now heading via Stourbridge. Northbound trains also routed that way.

Wales also seems to have a lot of planned cancellations and bustitutions.

Moderators - time for a new thread "Storm Dennis - Saturday 15th and Sunday 16th February 2020"?

Wow - I am impressed by your speed of response!

Can you take charge of Crossrail, the class 769 project, HS2, publishing the results of the Williams Review......

Original subject at http://www.passenger.chat/22881


I know my limits.   But I did bring you - just a short while ago - early news of the Imber Bus 2020 on 15th August 2020 and I'm working on 35th anniversary of re-opening of Melksham Station which you should have in your diaries for 15th May 2020. Not to forget the Coffee Shop AGM on 4th April 2020. I do not expect to be announcing any delays on any of those three, nor to expect any funding issues.

Tree down on the Looe line (again) ::)  Line blocked for rest of the day.

I have made a note in my dairy.

Although the headlines is "Exmouth and Barnstaple", it would appear that the West of England Main Line is blocked at Cowley Bridge, with services running Exeter - Penzance, London - Taunton, and a few via Castle Cary / Yeovil.    The main body of the JourneyCheck message suggest that's the case.

.....my hopes weren't high! 🙂

Flooding in the Cowley Bridge area affecting all services and GWR are putting the emphasis on Exmouth to Barnstaple (a through service that no longer exists)!

Wasn't there a load of work done at Cowley Bridge quite recently specifically to prevent flooding?

To alleviate, not prevent, sadly. So, maybe it is less severe than could have been, but flooded nevertheless!

Ah I see...………..perhaps we could get the Chinese to have a look at it and make it a bit more robust whilst they're over here sorting out HS2 for us?  :D

Indeed.  I recall the works being described as designed to stand up to everything short of a once-in-forty-years event, or was it once-in-100-years?  Get it over with today and changes are we won't have any more problems for several decades, right?  ;D

The lack of a passable line at Cowley Bridge today has caused a massive spike in enquiries (in public) to @GWRhelp on Twitter and they give a fascinating insight (well - fascinating to me) into people's journeys and what worries them at times of disruption.  I have started a thread in our "Transport Scholars" section which lists a number of these enquiries - at http://gwr.passenger.chat/22911 .  Worth documenting and discussing, but not something to be shouting about on our public boards.  Coffee Shop members who are NOT Transport Scholars - please send me a message (or like this post) and I'll add you in.  Lurkers / guests - why not join the forum and once you're an established poster, you too can become a "Transport Scholar".  Always free to join, welcoming of new members; also happy if you want to continue to lurk.

Edit 08:00, 17.2.2020 - send me a message to be added to "Transport Scholars" as I will no longer be coming back here every few hours to check for more "like"s.

From Cross Country:

Knock off a zero, it's once every 10 years Graham, so we're now all clear till 2030  ;)

https://www.ice.org.uk/ICEDevelopmentWebPortal/media/Documents/Regions/UK%20Regions/Cowley-Bridge-sw-awards.pdf

Alternative route via Yeovil closed due to flooding of River Axe east of Axminster

https://twitter.com/sw_help/status/1228967118303121408?s=21

Location shown here
https://traksy.uk/live/M+8+AXMNSTR+18

....and quoted from the WNXX Forum (15/02/2020):

Oops - 1A77 (0834 Exeter St Davids to London Paddington) has just passed me at Pinhoe  :o

Possibly mitigate. The electrics were put on plinths to try to keep them out of the water, so that when said water recedes, life can continue without the need for all new kit.

Problems between Westbury and Bath:

My ears gave me misleading information  :-[  Having been told of the divert, I was heading down to the station to phot it. Sadly, I heard what I thought was the train and assumed I had missed it and headed back home. It could not have been the train as it never left St Davids. Apologies for the mis-information......... <Goes and hides in the nearest hole>

This screenshot from Google Street view shows the location. The tributary coming in from the right had some flood alleviation work done recently but presumably too much rain has fallen over the past few hours.

Journey Check now showing services from Andover/Salisbury terminate and restart at Yeovil Junction for the rest of the day, although nothing in the line updates section, just in the service updates.

1803, 1836, 1903, 2003 Paddington to Plymouth/Truro all cancelled.

That only leaves the Sleeper at 2350 if you're hoping to head to the South West this evening.

1703 cancelled too - these details are from NRE as we know that GWR Journeycheck can't  be relied on to be accurate these days.

Reported on JourneyCheck

Cancellations to services between Exeter St Davids and Taunton
All lines blocked until end of day (flooding)

Delays to services between Swindon and Chippenham
Delays of up to 20 minutes until end of day (flooding)

Cancellations to services between Exeter St Davids and Barnstaple
All lines blocked until end of day (flooding)

Cancellations to services between Exeter St Davids and Plymouth
Reduced speed running and cancellation until end of day (flooding)

Cancellations to services between Southampton Central and Salisbury
All lines blocked until 11:30 (flooding)

Delays to services between Westbury and Bath Spa
Reopened but delays until 12:00 (blocked by tree)

Other issues not on main JourneyCheck list
- flooding between Yeovil and Exeter
- flooding between Cardiff and Port Talbot Parkway.

For Cowley Bridge, the current Google Earth picture (at 50.748972° -3.546002°) shows the new bigger culvert mid-build. And going back through the historical images makes clear that this is not on a watercourse of any kind - it's just coping with field run-off and infiltration from uphill that wishes to get into the river. It's been doing that for centuries, until some damn fool put a railway embankment in the way.

The CEH Hydrology map suggests there are a few watercourses, one parallel to the railway which is probably an ancient branch of the river Exe before the railway was built and that picks up a few tributaries but they just basically drain the hillside.  Since the hillside is wooded you can't even blame it on modern agriculture.  So it is basically down to excessive rain on already wet ground.  This is what the models predict we should be seeing more often due to climate change. 

The 18:00 to Plymouth currently showing as running.  That one goes via Bristol, so might terminate there, but will hopefully make it to Taunton?

Article here about what was done, and why.  There’s eventually a comparison of before and after closure expectations for both the Cowley Bridge and Axminster schemes.
https://www.railengineer.co.uk/2018/11/15/flood-resilience-schemes-in-southwest-england/

Network Rail have deployed their inflatable booms at Cowley Bridge to try to mitigate the effects of the flooding.

The grim situation in Wales captured by TfW's Journeycheck page in a bizarre statement:

No wonder the Stena Line ferries to Ireland are cancelled!

From GWR Help......


⚠️A diversionary route via Yeovil is now flooded so the last service from Paddington to Taunton will be at 15.30.
Replacement buses will run from Bristol Temple Meads to Taunton, Tiverton Parkway and Exeter St Davids but these are expected to get busier as the day progresses.⚠️

Glad they are up to date.   The route was closed last night.

Abandon all hope, ye who travel west.

According to some of those present at around 2pm there were 500+ people waiting at Exeter St Davids for a replacement bus, and the warning from GWR is that they are expected to get busier as the day progresses.

I suspect it's a good day to be a taxi driver in Exeter!

So Cowley junction flood works have failed. What good is the floatation barrier after the event; the water will drain away anyway once the rain stops.
The tracks here like at Teignmouth -Dawlish needs to be on raised piers. If they can do it for the M5 over the Exe they can do it for a two track railway over a much shorter distance.

"Network Rail have deployed their inflatable booms at Cowley Bridge to try to mitigate the effects of the flooding."
The Exeter /Taunton and N.Devon lines have been closed since start of Sunday.

At 1345 today I looked over the A377 main road bdge at Cowley to find about 6 men from NR Contractors Balfour Beatty in attendance with an UNinflated orange boom straddling the N.Devon and main lines lines in case the river flooded over the line later.
Heavy rainfall on Exmoor takes, via the river Exe, about 12 hours to reach Exeter.

This boom when inflated would thus stop most water going under the road bdge towards St D, but the floodwater would still flood across the lines and wash track ballast away.
There was apparently no flooding anywhere between Exeter and Taunton; not even at
flood prone Hele & B which has yet to have flood 'alleviation' works carried out.

At 1350 I found a queue of about 350-400 passengers waiting along the front of St D for coaches to Taunton...I dread to think how long some had been waiting (an empty IET was noted stabled in Exeter New Yard) .
A coach from the small family firm of Powells of Lapford, arrived at 1405 from Taunton having taken just over an hour from Taunton with Passrs off the 1103 Padd.
Passengers I collected off this coach remarked how professionally and carefully the driver had driven; who in this instance clearly 'knew the road' and how comfy the coach seats were compared to the hard seats on the ' New (IET) Trains' ...no surprises there then !

I'm not so sure about the historical accuracy of that, but having looked at a map it is clear that water does come down from the flood plain upstream. I'd assumed it wouldn't as the railway gets very close to high ground on the south side just above Cowley Bridge. The map shows that some damn fool (possibly the same one) dug a channel in that gap, no doubt so as to drain that next bit of cut-off flood plain. But all that water now has to go somewhere ..  a bit like road traffic, really.

Why would that stop GWR operating services to Taunton?

5L45 ecs Yeovil Junction to Exeter St Davids is running as a proving service,  departed 1744.

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/92308/2020-02-16/detailed

Edit 1838
NR Wessex report on Twitter that line reopened at 1830 Sunday

The Exe meanders a lot around that part, as does the Creedy. The Culm joins the Exe not much north of Cowley Bridge. The three of them together form a big puddle on the flood plain. That has to go somewhere, usually the Cowley Bridge Inn. The chap who owns it complained bitterly that he is the sacrificial lamb for Network Rail, and that deployment of the boom might help the railway, but at his expense. I don't know if the previous works did anything to alter that sad state of affairs.

Cross Country have been turning their trains around at Bristol Temple Meads,  so the service to Taunton has been just one stopper an hour.  Taking everyone arriving in Bristol for Exeter and beyond and putting them on the short stopper would be slow and overcrowded.  Then when they get to Taunton, they couldn't use the south side to transfer to buses because of all the works going on; really unsuitable for large volume rail to road transfer.

When the railway was constructed at Cowley Bridge, the Exe was diverted for a short distance to its current channel that runs adjacent and parallel to the north side of the railway on the eastern approach to Cowley Bridge Junction. I was wondering whether the channel mentioned by Stuving was the former natural course of the river?

The installation of the high capacity culverts under the main line was intended to prevent water from backing up against the railway embankment and causing ballast washout by allowing a significantly increased volume of water to pass under the railway compared to the previous version.

The decision to close the railway and deploy the booms would have been made after receiving data from the weather forecast provider. The rainfall and river flow data for the catchment area would have been monitored at regular intervals and compared with previous events to give a prediction of likely water levels lower down the system later on. On this occasion it was deemed likely that the infrastructure would be at risk of a flooding event. Just a slight difference in reality compared to the predicted model can be the difference between flooding and not. The work undertaken in the area was to increase resilience so that the railway would only be affected by a 'once every 10 years' flooding event. Time will tell if that sort of event will actually become more frequent than that and require further mitigation work.

Certain locations (such as the Blackwater River bridge near Broom level crossing that saw the former LSWR route blocked to trains) use remote monitoring equipment and the line will be closed immediately once the water level has reached the predetermined limit. A problem with some rail over river bridges affected by flooding is that even though the water level may have dropped low enough to allow the resumption of train movements, the bridge may still require a visual inspection before being passed as safe to use. Bridge scour is a serious risk and procedures were significantly tightened up following the fatal Glanrhyd Bridge collapse in 1987.

I can't find an 18:36 or a 19:03 in the schedules today.  Were they even supposed to be running with the planned engineering alterations beyond Truro today?

Anyway, the 18:00 to Plymouth ran as far as Bristol.  The 18:03 to Truro was reinstated and ran as far as Taunton.  17:03, 20:03 and 21:03 were cancelled throughout.

The sleeper, only booked to run as far as Plymouth tonight anyway, is currently down as 'will be starting late from London Paddington. This is due to train crew being delayed by service disruption.'

I looked at GWR's weekly engineering poster (available online) and it made no mention of cancellations east of Truro, although RTT shows the 1703, 1803 and 1903 with the CAN marker that generally shows a planned cancellation.

The service at Pewsey and Westbury has been - to put it mildly - sparse today. Only three trains called at Pewsey (unless there were any unadvertised that don't show up on RTT). From the passing times at Heywood Rd and Fairwood Junctions, it appears that the "fast" services did not call at Westbury to fill in the gaps - the only down trains recorded were 0920 and 1600; the only up trains at 1043 and 1115.

I believe that there was flooding between Newbury and Reading later in the afternoon. Nevertheless, the Journeycheck headline:
doesn't quite convey the message that the whole Paddington-Taunton route was a washout.

The water level rises quickly at some places and slower at others ... this looks like Chipping Sodbury tunnel again.  At least there is a reasonable diversionary route, even if it makes for.a very busy line and trains arriving at the far end of their services after they are supposed to have left on their next duty.

And elsewhere...from The Connexion (https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/France-suffers-more-destruction-and-delays-as-Storm-Dennis-ends-on-Sunday):

Interviewed passenger off that 15-hour marathon journey complained about no power, so no food or water, and no working toilets. SNCF were keen to point out that they did supply food (maybe not to all) and a working TGV from Le Mans, though that wasn't until 2:00 the next morning after a 15:00 start.

Line towards Swindon is open but with a severe speed restriction.

The problem here is the Dodington Spring which erupts after heavy rain has topped up the aquafer which feeds the spring which has I am told has an outlet in the tunnel itself. Before the days of Railtrack, BR were advised to construct an underground reservoir and install high volume pumps to pump water into said reservoir and further pumps to pump water into the nearby River Froome which is higher than the Sodbury portal of the tunnel and opens onto a flood plain north of the line.

I spoke too soon a day or so ago.

I drove to Exeter today, and have to go back later.

It's still very wet from Rewe onwards, particularly so after crossing over the bridge at Stoke Canon. The rivers disappear under a temporary lake. Men in orange were evident around the bridge over the Exe north-east of Cowley Bridge. There were still plenty of buses outside St Davids, although from RTT, it seems that trains were running again to Barnstaple and towards Bristol. I drove past around 12 noon.

Around 10.30, I was in Tiverton. I haven't seen the Exe so high and fast there before, quite a sight although no danger to the town. But a Fire and Rescue Service vehicle appeared in a hurry, blues and twos going, towing a small boat on a trailer. A helicopter appeared, and was still hovering over the river on the Exeter side 30 minutes later when I left my appointment. Another 30 minutes later, I drove past some of the rescue team, standing by the river in Ashley, where the ground rises and the flood wall protecting Tiverton ends. I hope that wasn't as bad as it looked.

On Xmas Eve 2013 I had a more than 2 hour wait outside St David’s for a coach to TivertonParkway (flooding at H&B) after travelling up from Truro. Thankfully it was a sunny day, as there was no cover from any rain

Is the old Cowley road-over-river bridge listed?

Seems to me that the road needs to be moved so that the railway be raised to allow water to run under it. Fairly major project but not as big as the new Barnstaple bridge

Thank you for reporting this Trowres. I was going to do a report on the second weekend of almost non existent service for Pewsey, Westbury and Castle Cary to/from London because for whatever reason GWR didn’t stop Express services at these stations in place of the cancelled stoppers for the thread I started here:
http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=22891.0
But decided not to owing to a lack of interest with this thread. Probably not the right attitude to take I admit.

Fair play to GWR that because the service on the London-WoE line was a complete mess because of the line being closed between Taunton and Exeter meaning they had many hundreds of passengers to and from the SW to deal with that the service provided for these three stations was a lower priority.

I am however concerned that once again that once the semi fasts get cancelled nothing is done to serve these stations by stopping expresses, something the stations would have had when the old timetable operated.

I can only think that no one uses Pewsey station on the weekend to be concerned about this.

Apologies Graham, I should have been clearer in meaning services from London to Taunton.

Of course it made sense to bus those from XC services terminating at Bristol down to Exeter rather than try and squeeze them onto local stopping services.

; sticks hand up ... very interested in Pewsey.  Just that I don't "like" or reply every time ... my name pops up more than enough anyway


The central timetable meeting last week came up with some questions concerning practises with the new timetable when things aren't going right.   It wasn't really on that agenda but a couple of points were taken away  ;)

I actually got both ... but even with just the London traffic, I suspect Taunton will struggle with the south side area closed (see "where's the AGM thread and link to https://www.gwr.com/plan-journey/stations-and-routes/taunton-upgrades )

Pleased to hear this was raised in the timetable meeting Graham as the last two weekends have not been the first time the semi fasts have been cancelled with no substitute calls on other services offered.

This goes back to the first day of the new timetable on the 15th of December when shortage of train crew affected in the semi fasts in the run up to Christmas.

I'm using this thread due to the discussion about Cowley Bridge flooding. I am due to be travelling from Bath to Exeter this Saturday (Feb 29) for a meeting and need to be certain of being able to return home to Bath that evening. I'm aware that the forecast for Saturday is grim with rain heaviest in the south-west.

How likely is it that the line north from Exeter will get flooded again and closed during Saturday? If that is the case, can I rely on alternative transport being made available? Will alternative routes be available to use, assuming they are not flooded as well?

I'd suggest following Met Office advice.

Try this flood forecast:

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/5-day-flood-risk (https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/5-day-flood-risk)

Looks OK for Saturday at the moment

Thanks. It looks like it should be ok, although the forecast is still for much rain in the south-west.

However, my question was more to do with what people's perception of the susceptibility of Cowley Bridge to flooding is, especially from those of you who have more local knowledge. Given its importance, as the main route from the south-west to much of the rest of the country, how susceptible is it? I have been caught out there before, but can also remember being on trains where the whole Exe valley was under water and there was water on the tracks, but the train got through, albeit slowly.

And given the experience I had yesterday of rail replacement, which I've outlined elsewhere, how much can I rely on that being provided and providing the service of getting passengers to their destinations in a timely way?

I guess we'll have to wait for the answer to that for several years until the effectiveness of the recent flood alleviation work becomes clear.  Those responsible estimated that the railway would have to be closed only once every ten years instead of once every two years.

That work was finished only 18 months ago, so not a good start seeing it close already - however the flooding associated with the storm and rainfall was very extensive so perhaps it will indeed be another ten years before something similar comes along?

Oh that 10--year return periods in flood data were that simple!

Yes I have lost count of the number of times I have had to explain that during my career.  The Environment Agency prefers to use the term a probability of flooding of 10% every year rather than once in 10 years, but even this does not give the whole picture. 

Estimates of flood frequency can only be based on long term observations of flow and rainfall data.  If you are estimating the frequency of something that happens fairly randomly but on average every 10 years you will need not just 10 years of data but several decades of data to get a reasonably reliable estimate of the frequency. 

However that assumes a stable system, and we know the climate is changing and the catchment may have changed as well. The catchment changes we can at least see and make allowance for, the the climate is more difficult. Because climate is long term and we are dealing with frequencies, we don't even know with any certainty what it has changed to at the moment, let alone where it will end up.  So we apply uplifts to the design rainfall based on the predictions of climate models. The government has published uplift values (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/flood-risk-assessments-climate-change-allowances#how-to-use-a-range-of-allowances-to-assess-flood-risk) for river flows If I were to say that for the south west region these uplifts are estimated to be between 30% and 85% for the 2080's you might get a sense of the uncertainty here. 

The climate models are thought to be reasonably good for longer periods of rain like those that cause river flooding of the type we have at the moment. But for short intense storms like those that cause the Boscastle floods a few years back or even shorter intense periods that cause a lot of surface water flooding in urban areas there is still even more uncertainty which the uplift figures do not reflect. 

Then there is the catchment wetness that affects how much of the rain runs off.  The problem on the Severn and the Wye at the moment is that the ground is no so wet rain does not soak into the ground, so more of the rain runs off into the rivers. This is to do with how far apart the storms are. I am not sure how well the climate models have captured this aspect at the moment but I suspect not that well.