Great Western Coffee Shop

* From the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51611422)


* From the Association of British Commuters


* From a discussion I was having earlier ... with someone who's got a degree in epidemiology - though with a very different career - I came away rather confirmed in the view that there is a probability of a pandemic - of the virus speading far and wide so that it's won't be significantly limited to areas or enclaves.  Of those dying, typically they're the people with the weaker immune systems so biased towards the old and the young but some middle age infected. Quarantine and other measures can and will reduce and slow the spread; to reduce worldwide casualty numbers, there's a race a against time to develop, and then to manufacture in quantity, more effective ways of treating the virus, and also to immunise against it and prevent it spreading.

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I was criticized the other day for starting a thread about a Carbon Friendly / Climate Change event to be held later this week. Perhaps this thread will get a similar critical kick.  Fair enough - it hasn't effected travel within the UK. Yet. But I suspect it might. And it might do so to a devastating extent.

---

How close is it?  From Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_degrees_of_separation)


I'm already half way - three steps away. The bus conference in London a couple of weeks back was attended by someone in from China who had been exposed. Attendees at that conference were advised about a week later to take prcautions including reducing their attendance at other events - the two MPs went so far as to quarantine themselves. But during that latency week, those who were there had carried on their regular run of meetings, and even after the notice there were some who took a different view to the advise.

It's over the magic fortnight now - and I understand it, that makes it "all clear" this time around. It was never more that a long shot that it would be at that meeting and get out, but with enough long shots ...

Don't panic Mr Mainwaring jumps to mind.

13 cases so far, only 4 now still live (the four from the cruise ship that have just returned on Saturday)....and over 6,000 tested. Wha? which of these 13 do they think they came into contact with?

Perhaps I've got this wrong but the subject of Coronavirus was brought up on a local radio program more than a week ago and the doctor being interviewed pointed out that, given any influenza outbreak in this country, which is not that unusual, there are hundreds, if not thousands of resulting deaths which don't grab these sort of headlines.
What is more, the fatalities are broadly speaking from the same cross section as with the current virus, i.e. those that have become frailer than most through age or some pre existing medical condition.
Of course, that sort of stuff won't sell so many newspapers.
   

The difference with flu is that there is a fair amount of immunity to that in the population, so it passes a lot of people by.  Coronavirus allowed to spread unchecked would presumably infect the majority.  If it spreads far and wide there is also an increased risk of it mutating into something even worse.  It's absolutely right to take coronavirus very seriously.

The difference is that there is no vaccine (yet) and so the old and others with weakened immune systems cannot be protected.  Rate of deaths my be around 1% but, by way of an example, it is estimated to be 7% for diabetics. 

That's me (with Type 2) worried now.

My barber raised an interesting theory last week. Why aren’t they being totally open about this condition? When it’s killing nowhere near as many people as traditional flu strains, why don’t we quarantine flu.
His theory was it started by some kind of chemical incident, and that is being covered up to avoid something

Were you having your highlights done? May explain the tinfoil hat!  ;)

On the assumption that Covid-19 is not only a serious risk for people with pre-existing conditions, but also the older generation, is there a contingency plan for the Coffee Shop?

Might be worth looking at the following book:
https://profilebooks.com/the-rules-of-contagion.html (https://profilebooks.com/the-rules-of-contagion.html)
part of the Wellcome Collection, so should have reasonable medical basis. The author is at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Book covers not only medical contagion, but also crime, internet viruses etc.

An unfortunate turn of phrase (if said with a soft i)  ;)

I was on a rammed train yesterday morning, stood in the vestibule with 9 others, between Pinhoe and Exeter Central. Something tickled my nose and I sneezed. A woman stood nearby suggested I got tested for coronavirus, suggesting I head straight for A&E!

It has not been overlooked; such issue goes far beyond just the current threat (or not) from this virus. 

Moderator's, Admins type topic - perhaps best expanded in "How Stuff Works" for Transport Scholars ( http://www.passenger.chat/b41 ) or on 4th April at the AGM;  I will suggest a few minutes on the agenda to explain with slides online thereafter.

DON'T head for A&E, ring 111. They will arrange testing, if necessary.

One thing it has affected is the new illuminated poster boards at TransWilts stations.   The solar cells are made in China and the factory has been shut for a month.

....... and it's giving Laura Kuenssberg a chance to get her breath back.................

But remember it's heavily weighted against those much older than you, even with middle age on the horizon.

....and let's remember that most deaths are occurring in countries with far less comprehensive health systems than our own.  When the NHS wants to it can be fearsomely efficient, more so than in other advanced countries, probably a legacy of wartime control.

So cheer up!

OTC

PS asked today in Boots for face masks - "never sold 'em" was the reply. Have to use my welding masks instead.

On Thursday Waitrose had sold out of small bottles of hand gel, so I bought a large one for refills.  (And with some small bottles getting the last dollops out requires a certain amount of shaking and squeezing; usually I end up undoing the cap and tipping some out.)

When I did that on a rammed single car from Gloucester during one of the previous scares (avian, IIRC), I found myself upgraded from a seat around the table, begrudgingly vacated by a bag, to half a carriage.

As someone with a pre-existing respiratory thing, and recently departed Chinese house guests, I shall carry on as normal for now. I brought a packet face masks home from Japan last year, as a never-executed joke. They might come in handy.

It is being widely reported that hand sanitiser is in short supply.
A suitable alternative is a mixture of about 70% isopropyl alcohol and about 30% water.
This is readily available on fleabay and is inexpensive in bulk.
The pure alcohol is very flammable, and the 70% mixture is somewhat flammable.

Certainly our local Tesco had none this morning, and I heard two people inquiring of staff if there was any. And the last few dispensers on the empty shelf were being grabbed, though those seemed to be some antibacterial hand wash - useless against a virus, of course, except as an encouragement to wash one's hands at all.

Of course if 20% of drivers, signallers, etc. are 'off-sick' then a lot of services won't run.

A fifth of workers could be off sick at peak of virus, according the government https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51718917 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51718917)

Every cloud has a silvery lining, and this is a marvellous opportunity for shops to clear the shelves of the expensive branded hand cleansers, the ones with nice bottles containing that rare and highly expensive ingredient "Aqua".

For some years I've carried and used hand gels, ever conscious of the lack of hygiene of many public-transport users and for use on my countryside walks and tasks. I have dry eyes that sometimes need the application of ointment and/or artificial tears, so clean fingers are important.

A friend is an agent for a range of aloe vera products, some of which I reluctantly buy. Checking my stock of hand gels, I found that all were merely "antibac" except the sample bottle she'd given me just before Christmas. Just tried to order some more, but they've sold out.

I went on to eBay and found that the cheapest bottles still listed would come from China, of all places. One British-based spiv had set up a new trading name offering for £100 a bottle that would normally cost £4-5.

Best answer to limited availability of effective hand cleanser would be a small refillable bottle of alcohol based sprit ,Vodka anyone?...

Don't ask me what the connection is but people in Australia are panic buying toilet paper  ???

Sensible in my view, toilet paper shortages are entirely possible due to sickness in the supply chain. Food and water are higher priorities, but toilet paper is also important.
I buy it in bulk, and order more when existing stocks are down to less than 100 rolls.
My present stock is about 200 rolls. No panic here.

So you keep several jerry cans of fuel in the event of a sudden fuel crisis, and a store of 100+ loo rolls, and heaven knows what else.  I have to ask, are you disappointed each day when the apocalypse doesn't arrive and you can smugly be the only person that has prepared for it?

I much prefer a large Gin and Tonic...... ;D

Italians are being advised to stand one metre away from each other in all public spaces. I wonder how that'd work on short-formed IETs!

It would be easy to mock Broadgage for his preparedness in the event of a major event, but we have seen how quickly shelves clear when fear and panic spreads.

That is quite a lot of toilet rolls to have in stock I must say but fair play to you.

I keep a reasonable reserve of many supplies for use in the event of any emergency, including but not limited too, extreme weather, industrial disputes, utility breakdown or failure, civil disorder, a 1929 type financial crash, terrorist attack, war.

Non perishable foods including dried pasta, canned goods, and 25 year shelf life doomfood.
Bottled water, chlorine tablets for disinfecting rainwater.
A few tons of logs, and a reserve of anthracite*.
A few cylinders of propane*. LPG boiling ring and LPG heater.
Batteries.
Paraffin*.
Candles*.
A reserve stock of clothes and bedding, beyond those items in regular use.
Defensive equipment.

As society becomes more vulnerable to out of course events, and more reliant on IT, which in turn relies on electricity, it is prudent to be prepared.

*I avoid use of these fossil fuels whilst times are normal, but consider a stock to be prudent.

I'm curious about your 'defensive equipment'?!  ;D

Details of defensive arrangements are not posted on a public forum.
Details of a modest and entirely legal petrol supply provoked enough concern.

Speaking from a personal perspective, and in response to the question posed by the OP, I would say 'No' unless intervention from one or more governments necessitates it.

We are booked to travel, starting next Thursday 12th March, to both Italy & Portugal using a mixture of train & plane. This trip was booked 6 months ago and, as things stand no travel or accommodation refunds are available. I have heard nothing on the news bulletins which would cause me to consider changing the schedule.

There was a fascinating interview on LBC yesterday with a microbiologist; I reckon a lot of people regard COVID-19 as something new and very dangerous. This is not so. SARS & MERS were both caused by varieties of the Corona virus and there is also another one doing the rounds which hasn't (yet) produced a specifically named infection. It seems that a significant number of people hit by COVID-19 exhibit no or very mild symptoms. 

I would just echo the (potentially famous last) words of Corporal Jones.   

The present death toll from the virus is less than those killed on the roads.
This should not lead to complacency though. There is no reason to fear a large and sudden increase in road fatalities, but the coronavirus does have the potential for much wider spread and significant mortality.

Part of the problem is that many people "cant do numbers" and would be reassured by a death rate of "under 1%" but be horrified by a death toll of "nearly half a million" and are unable to grasp that both could be true.

I do find it interesting that those who do stockpile for ‘just in case’ threats to their life or way of life often don’t ensure they also control things that are much more likely to cause their early demise or help to ensure a comfortable life.  A balanced diet, regular exercise, not drinking, smoking and taking drugs and properly controlling weight for example.

That’s by no means meant as a personal dig at Broadgage, just an observation (though he’s admitted to not being in pristine shape a few times) and I don’t claim to look after myself as well as I should.  Mind you, I don’t stockpile hundreds of bog rolls!  ;)

The irony is that when people stockpile hand sanitizers, they are stopping loads of other people from using them which ends up exposing the very people doing the stock-piling to more risk.

It depends upon WHEN the stockpiling was done.
To buy extra supplies at the last minute is anti-social as others are thereby deprived. I avoid doing this.
To stock up in good time hurts no one else and simply provides a little welcome extra trade for the supplier.
I purchased a bulk stock of isopropyl alcohol some years ago, it keeps almost indefinitely. It should be diluted 70/30 with water for use as a hand and surface sanitiser.
Washing hands with soap and warm water is good, for this reason I have several means of heating water, loads of soap, a case of disposable hand towels, and a dozen or so spare re-useable towels. All obtained years ago, not during any panic and not depriving anyone else.

Likewise if power cuts become a regular feature, panic buying of candles is likely. I have hundreds of candles purchased years ago, no one else was thus deprived.

 I Don't smoke.
Drink only in moderation.
Fairly balanced diet.
Don't take illegal drugs.

Lacking regular exercise.
Weight is excessive.
Eyesight and hearing not as they used to be.
If I was an orse, they would shoot me.

O, to be back in Japan...


"We're all doomed!" (Or was the other fellow?)

Shelves completely bare in Morrisons Wincanton. But, I got down on my hands and knees and checked on the floor underneath. Found a bottle of antibacterial hand wash (Strawberry scented, but only £1) and a small bottle of Carex antibac hand gel. The later was a discontinued item that I got for 50p!

From Vogue (https://www.vogue.co.uk/beauty/article/coronavirus-commute) - though I'm sure you all read this magazine anyway before you visit the Coffee Shop  :D

Ditto Waitrose in Wellibob.

For those who can't get hold of hand sanitizer/gel.

Get yourself one of those small clear travel atomisers. Fill it with 50ml of cheap vodka, and some drops of skin safe essential oil. Tea tree and/or lavender work best as they contain antibacterial qualities.

Don't go mad spraying it on your hands. A little is all that's needed. Take care if you work in a safety critical job with random alcohol testing. The odd spray shouldn't affect blood alcohol levels. No more so than using alcohol based mouthwash.

In railway employment, I suspect that CARRYING vodka would be looked at with very considerable disfavour. Even if it was for hygiene purposes rather than for drinking.
Non potable alcohol would be better. Isopropyl alcohol is non potable and still readily available, not certain if use of same could give a "false positive" on a railway alcohol test.

Alcohol based hand sanitisers usually contain about 70% alcohol, popular brands of vodka are 37.5% or 40% and may therefore be less effective.

Which is why one uses an antibacterial essential oil too.

I have counted my toilet rolls and confirm that I have 221 rolls. 2 large cartons each containing 108 rolls, and 13 loose rolls.
1 carton of 108 rolls lasts very roughly a year. I re-order when down to roughly one carton.

Crikey. Prepared for a nuclear winter with that lot, not just Covid-19.

Or, a particularly bad case of gastroenteritis.

It's Coronavirus (a bad cold - not 'flu) not Norovirus - you've stocked up for the wrong one!

Having had Norovirus on a cruise, I can tell you that you've forgotten to pack a good pair of running shoes....

OTC

A leading doctor on telly said that to be effective, the mixture has to be a minimum of 60% alcohol. That rules out all drinks bar certain eastern europen concoctions, that Arak I drank by sort of accident in Israel (believing the Islamic population was completely teetotal) and Absinthe, none of which I shall wash my hands with.

Do you not wait for the Buy One Get One Free offer? BOGOF in more ways than one.

Bulk buying from trade suppliers that primarily supply institutions is generally cheaper than buying from supermarkets. Also more convenient as one large carton is far easier to store and handle than loads of smaller packages.

Other purchases are from a supermarket home delivery service. I think nothing of purchasing relatively large volumes when prices are attractive.
As an example I enjoy a certain brand of chocolate biscuit, but try to limit myself to two packs a week. Some people would buy two packs each week, but I think nothing of purchasing a dozen or twenty packs when reduced in price. These often last until the product is next reduced in price.
Similar arguments apply to most non perishables.

Anyway...
The official advice seems to be keep calm and carry on, but always wash your hands before picking your nose.

And afterwards surely  ;D

If anyone is concerned by the scarcity of alcohol based hand sanitiser and the often inflated prices of remaining stocks, it is easy enough to make your own.

One suggested formulation is as follows.

Isopropyl alcohol-----------------------75%
Hydrogen peroxide solution-------------4%
Glycerine---------------------------------1.5%
Purified water to 100%

The isopropyl alcohol should be virtually pure, not the formulation already diluted with water.
The hydrogen peroxide presumes use of a solution containing 3% of the active ingredient, other concentrations may be used if the volume used is adjusted accordingly. The purpose of the peroxide is to kill anything in the original ingredients.
The glycerine should be of cosmetic or food grade, its purpose is to prevent excessive drying of the skin.
The water should preferably be distilled or de-ionised, but boiled tap water may be used, if of drinking quality.

If only "rubbing alcohol" is available which consists of 70% isopropyl alcohol and 30% water, then this may be used but is not ideal. Add about 2% glycerine. Add no water to rubbing alcohol.

Isopropyl alcohol, glycerine, and hydrogen peroxide are all readily available on line.
The isopropyl alcohol and the glycerine store almost indefinitely in sealed containers, but the hydrogen peroxide spoils in storage.

Edit to add, the above was true when posted, but isopropyl alcohol is now in short supply and very expensive when located.
Ethanol is an alternative but requires a slightly different mix, details a few posts down

TAKE CARE isopropyl alcohol is very flammable, and when diluted as described is still somewhat flammable. Best handled outdoors.

Isn't hydrogen peroxide useful in the manufacture of improvised explosives? I thought that would be a little harder to come by of late.

Yes, hydrogen peroxide can be used in improvised explosive manufacture.
It has so many legitimate uses that it is hard to control or restrict sales.
A search on fleabay will reveal numerous suppliers.

Hence 'peroxide blonde bombshell'.  :D

If anyone wishes to make their own hand sanitising mixture, the isopropyl alcohol to which I refered a few posts back, is now in short supply and has trebled in price.

An alternative formulation uses ethanol, which is widely sold as a fuel. A slightly larger percentage is required. One suggested formulation is as follows,

Ethanol------------------ 83%
Hydrogen peroxide-------4%
Glycerine------------------1.5%
Purified water-----------to make 100%

The ethanol should be of the approx 98% pure grade that is widely sold as fuel. Avoid ethanol motor fuel as it contains a small percentage of petrol.
The hydrogen peroxide presumes use of a solution containing 3% active ingredient, other concentrations may be used if the amount used is adjusted accordingly.
The glycerine should be of cosmetic or food grade.
Distilled or deionised water is preferred, but boiled and cooled tap water may be used if fit for drinking.

TAKE CARE the pure ethanol is highly flammable, and is still somewhat flammable after dilution. Preparation best done outdoors. store in sealed containers.

For Heaven's sake - SOAP AND WATER!

This is a good explanation on why soap and water is better.

From Twitter yesterday


https://twitter.com/pallithordarson/status/1236549305189597189?s=21

Agree, subject to availability. Soap and water is unlikely to be available on most public transport or outdoors.
In say an office, soap and water is probably only available in the toilets. After use of these facilities, how many surfaces and items will you touch en route to your desk? Toilet door ? office door ? intermediate doors ? lift buttons ? Hand sanitiser at your desk would be prudent as well as soap and water in the washroom.

In ones home, soap and water is preferable but remember to have a hand towel for each person, don't share them. Hot wash towels frequently.

In the workplace disposable paper towels are more hygienic, despite the environmental costs thereof. At home consider a box of paper towels in reserve in case circumstances prevent laundering of re-usable items.

It's somewhat unfortunate timing for the toilets opposite M & S at Reading Station to be closed until May for "improvements". After getting off my train this morning  I headed there for a wee (not really needed, but just in case) and to wash my hands. Not that the perfunctionary facilities there were very reassuring, with users often moving from one basin to another to "collect" all three functions: soap, water, air.

A notice did advise of the facilities on most (all?) platforms, which I normally find preferable, but I had to post some letters at the nearby mail-box so opted for the toilets by M & S.

In case it hasn't appeared elsewhere: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51736185 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51736185)

Also ... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51809318

1st article - risk of spread if you use public transport
2nd article - planes flying [nearly] empty as international travel drops .. to hold on to airport slots

It strikes me that the greenest way to travel is not to travel at all ... grieves me to think we may come out of "this" with some habit changes as people find they can work from home and don't need to travel so much.  But I do worry that people are going to be less concerned to drive around in private cars and we may see a boost for that less green way of getting around.

My impression is that the number of ads I get by e-mail from airlines and the like has gone up recently - but maybe it's the context that has made them look more forlornly desperate to get us to book future trips. But today I got ones from Air France and SNCF (trading as Oui.com) offering added flexibility as an inducement.

SNCF tickets are already pretty flexible, but now they are saying (https://www.oui.sncf/aide/situation-sanitaire-coronavirus?ectrans=1&prex=T_NLC_OP3470_FrFr_114352349&pid=a9e4a667f0b554a2ff29c33bc9d5281e730a0fe1) that for any date up to 31st April you can rebook or cancel for a full refund. Air France's offer (https://www.airfrance.co.uk/GB/en/common/page_flottante/hp/news-air-traffic-air-france.htm?_ga=2.43182629.1203700769.1583504900-784428796.1578669384?utm_medium=Email_NewsLetter_NonTactic&utm_source=Unica&utm_campaign=Brand&utm_content=350_LocalContent&utm_term=FB&ESV_market=GB&WT.z_g=yM9ezu6pzh1QMTybMq59Vw%3D%3D) is more limited in time, and only for rebooking later or a non-refundable voucher.

I can see that desperation is a rational response on their part just now.

Be carful on your purchasing of hydrogen peroxide in quantity unless you want the boys from '5' knocking on your door  ;)

Also if the virus spreads as widely as the government anticipates there will presumably be a lack of train crew and other staff leading to a partial shut down of the network?

My employer is making incident plans based on 25% staffing so I suspect other infrastructure related companies will have similar plans.

This isn't based everyone being ill but a combination of self isolation, restriction on movement and reduced public transport. There's also issues like if schools close then parents will need to be at home for child care.

And now BA's offer (https://www.britishairways.com/en-gb/flights-and-holidays/flights/book-with-confidence?DM1_mktgCat=Email&DM1_MktgSubCat=2&DM1_Campaign=PR-11229I010G002P0008&DM1_Chksm=100007434715&DM1_SRC=&DM1_Channel=Email&utm_source=eD&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Email&utm_term=I010G002P0008&utm_content=PR-11229&propositionid=INFBR057&bt_ee=UeE2RUiaSrVhQqxTuqOJZ5PIr0lCLMHAbjzyqdr6TQpCRxDsJA6pZqJ7uaOYhZTc&bt_ts=1583835567081):

Not that I've looked that carefully, but are there any estimates of a decrease in the numbers of rail travellers? Friends who have come from Paddington to Reading last Thursday and yesterday reckoned there was a noticeable decline. And yesterday Reading Station seemed quieter at 0930 and  1150. One friend used a taxi from Liverpool Street but took the Tube back, another cycled to Paddington.

Difficult to know, I'm sure there has been a drop, but only a small one so far.  Less essential weekend journeys might be where an obvious reduction is seen first. 

I see hundreds of 'ghost flights' are still operating to avoid losing slots at the airports:  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51809318

The airlines' concern is holiday bookings, and some other longer term ones - everyone is holding off doing those. The shorter-term drop is partly based on no-go countries (like, now, Italy) and thus has to be suffered. Railways do do long-term advanced bookings, but I'm sure they are a smaller part of their business. So they may not feel the need to react. Plus, of course, if it has to be industry-wide it would take several years to negotiate,with or without DfT's "help".


Airlines have requested a moratorium on those "use it or lose it" rules. At least, some have, but from whom? No doubt the same issue of who decides and how widely does it apply comes in here too - but maybe dire necessity will bear some inventive decisiveness in one or bath cases!

I would suggest that airlines are more concerned about the drop off in short-notice business travel. This is what drives premium ticket sales (Expensive walkups as well as business class).

Many international companies are restricting non-essential travel and, in some cases, banning all travel outside of local offices. This is irrespective of the country concerned.

This has a huge impact on airline cashflow in the short-term, not to mention profitability.

Airlines will also have hedged their fuel costs based on the recent relatively high prices, not on the ultra low prices available this week, so won't see the benefit of low prices for some time.

Yes, to purchase large volumes could indeed attract unwanted attention.
Note however that most home made hand sanitisers only call for about 4% by volume of "low test" hydrogen peroxide that contains 3% active ingredient and 97% water.
Therefore one liter of 3% hydrogen peroxide solution would make about 25 liters of hand sanitiser. Not many people want more than that.
I ordered two packs each of one liter, from different suppliers. I don't really need that much but wanted to duplicate the order with different suppliers in case one lot failed to arrive.

From BBC live feed at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-51765991 - lots of immediate flight cuts

Vive la difference! I assume there will be double time for working on this new public holiday?

Google has many results detailing why you shouldn't make your own hand sanitiser.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=don%27t+make+your+own+sanitiser

I'm carrying around my shop bought one which I bought a few months ago anticipating it would last me a year. I now expect it to last a few weeks. If they don't come back onto the shelves soon then I may consider packing a bar of soap and bottled water in my bag if I can't find a wash basin out and about.

Making your own hand sanitiser is not that hard ! all that is required is the correct ingredients and careful measurement to ensure that these are mixed in the correct proportions.
And MINOR errors don't matter that much.
Ready made products often contain a bit less alcohol than is desirable, because water is cheaper than alcohol.
The better formulations such as those that I previously suggested contain a bit more than the minimum alcohol so as to give a margin for MINOR errors in measurement, or for the alcohol being SLIGHTLY less concentrated than claimed by the supplier.

I anyone is doubtful, I would assure you that clinics and hospitals in developing countries DO use hand sanitiser, and that they DONT import it in small, pretty, and expensive bottles from Europe.
It is made on site, from locally sourced ingredients, in the clinic pharmacy, with facilities only slightly more sophisticated than most of us have at home.

If Coronavirus does spread among railway employees, leading to more staff shortages, it's going to be very difficult to assess the performance of rail companies using the normal criteria. Could be a knock-on effect on compensation for delays and cancellations.

I suspect that come the end of April, exactly how many days it had (as determined by astronomical observation) is not going to matter a lot to Air France, their customers, or the rest of us. Nor will the French be so intent on their usual habit during May - trying to get as many days off as possible (due to be "only" four this year, Pentecost being on June 1st).

I’m surprised that this doesn’t appear to have happened yet. With guards and customer hosts spending so much time in the saloons with passengers, and then coming into close proximity in messrooms with everybody else I’d have thought this would have started happening by now. But I’m not aware of anybody in this situation just yet. Thankfully.

How does flying an aircraft empty rather than loaded have "an environmental impact" then?

I don't think it quite says that, but it is simultaneously and confusingly dealing with both environmental and economic impacts. Not having passengers has an economic impact on airlines, and having to fly the planes anyway adds to that. Flying empty planes has a double-negative environmental impact, i.e. it removes the (fortuitous) advantage of not flying them.

I'm surprised they can't rustle up an excuse for doing this as an emergency measure without having to rush out a quickie directive (or regulation). How about saying that if passengers travelling would be a health risk, then even the crew present a small (probably tiny) risk too?

I don't normally have to challenge your postings STUVING but......

But that's the impact of flying empty planes rather than not flying them, surely? No passengers either way.

A friend of mine travels by train between a South Coast town and Torquay a few times a year and books her tickets in advance on-line. Chatting to her today, she told me a bit of a long tale about trying to get a refund at her South Coast station for a ticket she'd bought last month. She hadn't got very far on-line in seeing if she could get a refund.

The guy at the station was "lovely" and very helpful and even spent time discussing with her the most economical advance ticket for travel next month. He said that in the present situation "they" were being very flexible about cancellation fees and refunds.

(I'm not naming the station lest he was being a bit too forthcoming.)
 (https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/stations_destinations/coronavirus.aspx[/url)

All human activity (eg exhaling) requires emission of global warming gases.

We have to decide how to ration this based on the value of the activity. Business and leisure activities made possible by flying may have utility - empty aircraft flying to tick bureaucratic boxes don't.

Perhaps the wording should have been, "an avoidable environmental impact".

Absolute sustainability is not possible in this world - entropy must increase.

OTC

Entropy can decrease, but only with an input of energy into the Earth System - mainly solar at surface and thermonuclear decay at depth

I used to try to explain it to students by pointing out that they could spend all weekend tidying (ie increasing order reducing entropy) their flat. By Sunday pm they were worn out but there were just the same contents.They would be looking forward to going back to work for a rest. By Friday it would be as untidy again.

The modern term for the balance between energy and order is of course Exergy - which is destroyed in natural events.

OTC

On the positive side, it uses a lot less fuel, and could be a smaller aircraft, such as a Cessna Citatiation vice Airbus A380, although it probably won't be. On the negative, it is plain stupid.

An acquaintance who commutes daily from Reading to Paddington reckons this last week there was little reduction in the numbers of passengers on GWR trains, but that the Tube wasn't so crowded.

On a personal note, I'm reasonably confident/complacent that I can escape catching the virus, but the necessary precautions are seriously impinging on my life (and on most other people's of course). Already there's been one life-changing consequence.

Shouldn't that be plane stupid?

A noticeable drop off today.  Unsurprising as the leisure market is much more likely to see people changing their plans.  Still plenty of folk about mind you...

Given that the entire Football League programme was cancelled along with many other sporting (and other) events, perhaps not surprising.......as well as the fact that people are now spending more time at home counting their toilet rolls.

Coming back through Winchester and Basingstoke yesterday afternoon, no shortage of people dressed up for an evening out (in London?). Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die sort of attitude?

The Health Secretary has confirmed that the over-70s will be asked to remain at home for an extended period, within the next few weeks. The duration will be decided at the time.
So no train travel for me then!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

I suspect you are not the only member this would effect;  I'm not quite "there" yet, but never the less I can foresee less travel soon too.   I wonder how it might effect (decimate) bus use where ENCTS cards (and schools) are the major traffic generators theses days - will the "extra subsidy for next year for buses" all be spent on covering income shortfalls for operators as commercial routes become uncommercial?

I am planning for any "silver lining" ... to be able to shift to far more home based and electronic activities including  book writing  ;D, web site and software updating and much more.

over-70s to be asked to stay at home (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873)

And how many of us confined to home will suffer anxiety, loneliness, deep depression, lack of exercise? Will the suicide rate increase?

How will it be monitored? I can - just about - pass as under 70. I'm already practicing exemplary hygiene when out in public, which nowadays is usually a Big Shop at Waitrose and going into a newsagent or other small shop two or three times a week.

I do spend a lot of time outdoors, but in open countryside, sometimes meeting barely ten people all day.

The suggested four months would take us through the summer, with a few weeks of liberty before the virus returns for the winter, forcing us back into hibernation.
 
I would rather run the risk of catching it, rather  than spend the rest of my life at home.

……...and the risk of passing it on to others?

https://twitter.com/planestupid/status/1238923702869295106

Its not just bus services that are at risk.

My flight back from Johannesburg on Monday was cancelled because of a lack of bookings. When I was first told this (on the plane I was "dumped" on to) my initial thoughts were to put a complaint in regarding cancelling a scheduled timetabled service simpy due to a lack of bums on seats. However, after I got home and heard the state the airlines were in over this virus, it put a completely different light on the matter.

I came back to CPM on the 0902 ex-PAD. This was the last "peak" train of the morning and I saved a few shekels by splitting at Didcot where an off peak ticket was available for onward travel. Initially I thought the fact that I had virtually a coach to myself between PAD and DID was down to it being a peak service, but now I ain't so sure.

We can't have a situation where buses and trains are running mainly empty without government assistance to get the companies through this period, otherwise we'll have Beeching all over again.

As you wish. Others may have there own views, which we should not loose site of, lest they effect us.

Being serious for a brief moment, the full economic and social impacts have yet to be understood. I am due at a work conference in a fortnight, which I strongly expect to be scrubbed, and if it isn't, the attendees better had be. I travel by rail to that as a rule, but might choose the self-isolation of the car if it does go ahead. Day to day contact with boss and colleagues is by Skype, which I don't like much but manage, and which wouldn't work for the conference, but we could see emergency measures working so well that they become the new normal. If it turns out that a large number of office staff can work just as well from a laptop at home than they do in the office, why not carry on, close the office, sack the cleaning company and caterers, and let the rail and bus companies know that they don't need to provide for as many people from now on. That could bring environmental benefits, but with a caveat, explained in this BBC documentary (https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p083tb16/dirty-streaming-the-internets-big-secret).


If you are writing a book, may I be the first to offer to proof-read it for you?

Ministers prepare to cut back rail travel. (http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/drop-in-train-passenger-numbers-over-coronavirus-fears-sees-services-cut-9slffvkdm)

More of the article would appear to be behind a paywall, but the print edition added little more.

Many employers have already banned their employees from attending conferences (mine included).

No, I'm sorry - you can't be the first to offer. Lisa had already pleaded with me to be allowed to proof read it  ;D .

Perhaps unsurprisingly - see-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169

We are entering uncharted territory.

I've seen several comments on how little international coordination there is over handling this virus pandemic. And I'm not convinced each nation has much more of a plan - even the French, who generally do planning with more thoroughness than most. To be fair, any pre-prepared plan could only be vague and conditional until it came into contact with the enemy; hence we are seeing a lot of development of those outline plans on the fly.

But is there a European plan? Well, yes and no. There was a proposal to do something for a wider range of potential crises: "Twelve proposals for improving the European Union’s crisis response capability" (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=2ahUKEwj79pnA8ZzoAhWMEMAKHZRqAmIQFjAAegQIBBAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.europarl.europa.eu%2Fmeetdocs%2F2004_2009%2Fdocuments%2Fdv%2F031006barnier_%2F031006barnier_en.pdf&usg=AOvVaw39GOiinUO14uyZAGmzfWfW). This was written in 2006,  by a certain Michel Barnier (already an ex-commissioner) by request of the commission president. Since the question was "what can the commission do?", the answers are all pan-European approaches, from just managing information flows up to new agencies. As far as I can make out, most of the proposals led nowhere.

For pandemics, the proposal was that the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control  (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en)should coordinate data and provide advice. The what? You, know, the ECDPC in Stockholm - yes? Well, you may find it a useful source of information - a bit like the WHO, but more local and less strident. For example, their Rapid Risk Assessment (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/rapid-risk-assessment-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-pandemic-increased) (in full, a 28-page report (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-sixth-update-Outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf))

Train companies looking for a handout from the Government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169

Economic recovery will come in the shape of a lorry load of spaghetti. Trains will be needed again, and the chancellor might as well rip up his recent budget now in favour of a new one better aimed at sorting things out when the dust begins to clear. There will surely be some sort of concession to the TOCs, as the government couldn't renationalise all at once. Services may well be cut temporarily, enabling many more barbecues to take place.

In the air transport sector, there will be even more panic, and not just because of the mounting piles of duty-free perfume that seem to be very low down on the panic buying lists. Schedules are shrinking, and rosters will be reworked hastily to try to keep pilots current.

We haven't heard about the effect on shipping yet, but there must be one. That could conceivably be the worst.

A variant of Marlburian's comment; if I am going to get it I would prefer to do so in the next couple of week's rather than in a couple of month's time when things will be much more difficult. Not that I am going out looking for.

My likely preferred activities outside the house and garden for the foreseeable future:

drive an hour in the car; go for 7-8-9 hour walk in the countryside, seeing a dozen or so people and giving them a wide berth; drive back.

Big Shop at Waitrose 0730 one day a week (though I've just renewed my on-line membership so can use Home Delivery).  Lots of handwashing before, during and after.

pop into the occasional newsagent or small shop two or three times a week and petrol station once a month. Lots of handwashing before and after. (Depending on what sort of volunteer support is available.)


I don't think that exposes me, fitter than most of my age, to much hazard. I bet that young people will be taking more risks - unless there's a complete clampdown on restaurants, theatres clubs, etc.

Now a kind of reply from Grant Shapps saying what he obviously had to - from the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51907213):

We'll have to wait and see what that means in terms of service levels in the future - I'm sure no-one, but no-one,  has any idea about that yet.

At a guess I would say there was a drop off of between a third and a half of passengers you might expect to see on various trains I saw today.  Very noticeably down on last week.  Should this situation continue for a while, as it looks like it will, then thinning of services on many routes and/or a reduction in carriages will be a likely, and sensible, way forward.

So we're expecting to see lots more 5 car IET sets out? ;)

I'll get my coat...

Maybe ... maybe not. What logic suggests (though we all know how much that'll be listened to) is a new definition of "overcrowding" - based on a maximum seat occupancy way below 50%.

Some forum members might think this was an ideal time to use that newly available space to bring back the buffet car.  :D
Then again, that might be deemed an unnecessary risk...

So what does the capacity of an IET carriage become with a 1.5 - 2 m spacing between passengers?

Expect an emergency timetable from 23rd March.

Judging by the train in to Oxford this morning there won't be anyone left to catch them.

And just looking at the long queue of taxis at Oxford this morning suggests to me that lots of people are going to lose their jobs and/or income; lets hope the government comes up with something quick.

Diversification... Taxi drivers will need to be come shopping/food delivery drivers. It won't pay as much but it will be some income.

NHS and care homes will be very short of people. In many areas taxi drivers are required to hold a DBS check so could be used as untrained auxiliaries. Again, not as great pay but it would be something.

People will get creative to earn money.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan said on TV that a Saturday service on public transport  is likely at all times, and less as the situation dictates. Buses and trains are being cleaned using the stuff that is used in hospitals, but, as Citizen Khan points out, they still have people on them, and platforms or bus stops will have tens or hundreds of waiting passengers.


The government is going to be pretty busy as it is. Non-essential stuff will be put to one side, but that still leaves crisis management. I am not going to rely on the government to solve any of my problems, and I would not recommend anyone else to do so.

Lots of laid-off airline workers, some with basic first-aid training, could help out as volunteers, not in a paramedic capacity, but checking on those most affected. Also there are Priti Patel's "economically inactive", notably students.

Good for them to do something positive, rather than mope around. One problem is there is a lot of scope for s***b*gs to exploit the vulnerable. "Give me your debit card/some cash, and I'll do your shopping".

Conscientiously I've just brought up the Waitrose website with a view to ordering a home delivery for next week (which I thought might be optimistic): "Sorry, waitrose.com is unavailable. We are working hard to get it back up and running, so please do try us again a little later."

I found problems ordering on Monday but it seems to be worse now; at least then I could get through to sign in but it crashed a number of times before I was able to place my order.

After two attempts, I got onto the Waitrose website, logged on and got a long list of purchases I've made on weekly visits. (Shall have to edit that)  I worked my way through it, bypassed a couple of pages suggesting things that I might like or have forgotten, and reached the booking-a-delivery page. I ploughed on and finally got a spare slot on April 21.

I'm not blaming Waitrose (and I think they may improve things, so I'll be keeping an eye on the bookings page) - obviously there's been a torrent of new business.  I think that the Government restrictions aim for the ideal, but there will be an inevitable shortfall in implementing them. At this early stage, I'm not sure how completely I want to go in slavishly adopting them - especially give the nonchalance, cynicism and stupidity of others.

Ocado has stopped taking new customers but there's still a virtual queuing page before you can start shopping. deliveries seem to be about two weeks out.

Going back to trains I've got an advance ticket booked for early April but the GWR website currently says no refunds. I think at the moment there's still a mismatch between government advice and how businesses respond.

I've been in (virtual) back to back incident planning meetings and I suspect most other companies are still at that stage but still like to know if i can have my £130 back ;)

I can't find the source at present, but reported on other forums that the government is on the brink of nationalising Airlines, Railways and Buses.  Wouldn't it be ironic if it was a Tory government that ended up doing that.......

Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8122143/Airlines-rail-bus-firms-nationalised-amid-coronavirus.html)

From Twitter the share prices for First, Stagecoach, National Express and Go-Ahead.

Suggestion that it would be a cheap option to nationalise!

https://twitter.com/edwardaleigh/status/1239978481326440455?s=21

Italy is nationalising Airitalia

Well two franchises expire in 14 days, so a fairly easy option to take to bring them back in house, other than it would be very short notice to put directly run operations in place if the expectation had been until a few days ago that they were going to be rolled over into new direct awards.  Also I'd have thought SWR and Transpennine's owners would be quite happy to hand in the keys too sooner rather than later, unless they are handed a blank chequebook to cover COVID-19. 

Nationalisation of the railways (again) is often quoted as a solution to all of mankind's problems. I wonder, though, if private enterprise can't make money out of it, how much worse will it be with the civil service involved?

It does appear however that people are being remarkably selective in their precautions.

Since I retired I tend to shop for little but often, and I went out this morning, to get milk, eggs and a bag of chicken portions. An observation – we have people afraid to go out, afraid to get on public transport, afraid to go to the pub or the cafe, afraid to go to work, but quite happy tp stand packed like sardines in the supermarket till queues to buy things that the majority of ‘em don’t actually need.

Perhaps they think that supermarkets give you immunity to the disease...

I agree. The TfL model for the overground seems to work quite well, but there is the risk that when money is tight investment will be limited. We're already seeing that in the enhancements programme for nationalised Network Rail, where the industry is complaining at the paucity of new projects and the hurdles needed to be jumped before approval is given.  The Castlefield corridor is probably the best example.

 Heard that as from 23/03/20 a reduced service by GWR, Sleeper services not running.
 Not an 'official' source though.
 

If confirmed, a significantly reduced service is IMHO a reasonable response to the present emergency and consequent staff shortage.
In the interests of still permitting essential travel throughout the nation, I would hope that trains will still serve the entire network, though reduced in number.
Unless loadings on the reduced service are very low, I would hope that trains will still be full length. Although proper "social distancing" might not be possible on a train, 200 passengers on a 9 car is clearly preferable to 200 passengers on a 5 car, despite the fact that 200 on a 5 car is not overcrowded by ordinary standards.

Withdrawal of the sleeper, if confirmed, seems rather perverse. A cynic might suspect that they want to discourage use.

This was the surface car park opposite Didcot Parkway (Julians) taken mid morning from the back (Lydalls Road). It would usually be completely full.

Travelling into London tomorrow from Twyford but guess getting a seat won't be a problem. Then to Carmarthen in the evening which is pretty quiet at the best times. Suspect it might just be me and the train crew.

I have been out for a walk - "fresh" air and not near many people.   Saw 3 buses and a train ...
Buses of Swindon - to Calne and Marlborough - with 2 passengers on board
Faresaver - to Bath - with 1 passenger on board
Frome Bus - town bus - with 1 passenger on board
All between 14:00 and 14:30 which is normally just about the quietest time, but never the less ...

I was looking at the  Waitrose and Tesco sites on Monday, and noted Waitrose.com was down as it was on Tuesday. Then I got an e-mail, which at least said what they were doing, both in stores and online - though nothing really addressed the very long wait for a delivery slot. The site did eventually respond, with the same information, though (as at this moment) it tends to be overloaded and just say hang on.

I've now had an e-mail from Tesco (well, Dave Lewis), saying similar things. That hasn't made it onto Tesco.com - yet.

I was surprised to get into the car park at the local Tesco - it's nearly full on a normal Tuesday morning. And most things I wanted were in stock, though I didn't look for the known shortages. Wine and beer had obviously been popular over the weekend ... which is hardly irrational! Waitrose (my local walk-to shop) this morning seemed worse off, so either that was since Sunday or they've been slow to restock. Not an egg in the place, which strikes me as odd (and was on my list). In practical terms, the immediate impact of these shortages on routine items is to prevent me reducing the number of shopping trips per week, which I was planning.

A message to Stakeholders from GWR:

“Covid-19 Update

We are working with government, the wider rail industry and FirstGroup to make sure that we keep services running during the current situation. We know how critical it is that we continue to provide a service for key workers. To help with that we have made some immediate changes to the way we operate.

This means that:

* The Night Riviera Sleeper service will stop running after its journey this Friday (20 March)
* We will no longer offer Pullman dining on board our trains from tomorrow (Thursday 19 March). Colleagues will be redeployed as Customer Hosts
* We will continue to offer food and drink at seat services, but we will no longer offer fresh food on board. We will also be encouraging card payments rather than cash if possible
* The First Class lounge in Cardiff will close at the end of usual hours on Friday evening, with the First Class Lounge at Paddington and the sleeper lounges in Truro and Penzance closing at 10am on Saturday (21 March) morning
* Revenue Protection teams will be redeployed to gatelines to help customers with their journeys
* We will ask customers to present tickets for checking on a flat surface to avoid unnecessary handling
* We have amended our refunds policy to make it easier for customers to claim refunds on unused tickets.
 
The situation is very fast moving and we will continue to work with our industry partners and the Government to consider what further changes may be needed to ensure we keep services operational. We will update you as soon as any decisions are made.

Best wishes”

That seems to be a reasonable response under the present emergency conditions.
I have two longer term concerns.
Firstly, when the emergency is over will Pullman dining be re-introduced? Even if very poorly patronised initially. I recall that in the aftermath of the Hatfield accident, all Pullmans were "temporarily" withdrawn. Most never returned.
I fear that this will be an excuse to permanently withdraw dining. Then remove the kitchens to prevent Pullman dining ever being re-instated.
Secondly I have fears for the longer term future of the sleeper. When the emergency is over, run the sleeper without telling anyone about the re-instatement. Then withdraw it.

And yes I know that Pullman dining and the sleeper are franchise commitments, but these are easily negotiated away, after doing a survey that shows that they are not wanted.

Thirteen days from the end of the current commitments. Then what will there be?  Pullman and sleepers are just tiny elements ... there are much bigger questions and I don't know any answers.

Good to see that at this time of national and global crisis you are worrying about the important issues.  I'll tweet Laura Kuenssberg to see whether she can ask Boris at this afternoon's press conference when they will be re-introduced. With maybe a follow up as to ensuring that supplies of Port are maintained.

I agree that there are more important issues facing the country than sleeper trains and Pullman dining. I would not be expecting the near term resumption of either facility. I also stated that withdrawal of these services was a reasonable response to present circumstances.
I did also state that my concerns were for the longer term.
There seems to be a culture in the UK rail industry of "what downgrades can we get away with" and a national emergency such as the coronavirus is a splendid opportunity to "temporarily" withdraw facilities. Some no doubt hope that such downgrades can be made permanent.

After the Hatfield accident there was chaos on the railways, and someone no doubt said "we have much greater challenges than on train dining"
Nevertheless, normality eventually returned, but the majority of the Pullmans never returned.

Quite apart from suggestions that Coronavirus will be with us, albeit in reduced form, for more than a year (and after that may need to be combated with vaccines), life will change significantly.

Some employers may realise that home-working is actually quite efficient and they can save on expensive offices. The economy is going to take years to recover, with companies paying off the emergency loans they're going to be given. Personal debt will be a burden. So will national debt. How many of the pledges given in the Budget (was it really only last week) can be honoured. Will we really be able to afford HS2? Will there still be enthusiasm for international travel?

I did use the Pullman once, from Bristol Parkway, and it was lovely, albeit an indulgence that has no relevance to the future of public transport. If an accidental long term consequence of this crisis is the Pullman's abolition then in the grand scheme of things, global, national, or even just transport related, it is completely unimportant, and of no relevance to more than a handful of well heeled passengers (or those on expense accounts). There are enough opportunities for fine dining to not feel that you can't cope with 3 hours between London and Plymouth without a restaurant quality meal.

I look forward to the next part of this discussion!

The toilet rolls may start flying, Broadgage has got a secret stash, remember!  :D

NR across all regions has drastically reduced / deferred routine maintenance which will cause an inevitable backlog of work, there is also planning for the priority of what faults get repaired and when.

Contingency plans are in place for ESR's, reduction or the suspension of services in the event NR teams are impacted by Covid-19 this to maintain routes and services for key workers and Nationally strategic railway customers.

It is recognised that the deferring of maintenance is likely to impact service reliability for several months even a year after the current crisis is over

So long as it's unused, I'm ready...

Just wondering if anyone else if contemplating returning their annual season ticket for a refund?  There doesn’t seem to be much point in my keeping it for the use it will get over the coming months, but is there anything I’m missing?

Nick - I discovered earlier in the week that it is financially beneficial to not simply cancel an existing gold card but convert it. By converting it to Ryde Esplanade to Ryde St. John’s. As that season ticket is only £188 pa you will get a bigger refund than simply cancelling. And, when normality returns you can simply then pay the difference back up to the regular product you have.

Public transport staff are on the key worker list along with NHS staff to still get education where needed!

The list is growing! We may still find that the world ends because we didn't include telephone cleaners as key workers.