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I read with interest the recent BBC article: Coronavirus: Transport usage will change after lockdown https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52414376?fbclid=IwAR1Y_fYiDao2STzy3H9niy7YUUZoI7rmsGuH7uxqMIrpIr7M5X-D4bzPD-4

I heard in the Travelwatch South West seminar yesterday (Friday 8 May) about the recent Transport Focus survey (https://d3cez36w5wymxj.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/06224359/Travel-during-Covid-19-survey.pdf ) , respondents said 74% of people in the South West don't want to return to public transport post the lockdown for Cronavirus. However, given this nationwide survey only polls 2000 people I would expect the breakdown of the numbers of the South West (ideally broken down further to WECA, Somerset, Wiltshire) who use public transport as a "commuter" pre 930am  (ie workers, school kids etc) form of transport would be quite small (be interesting to know if the figures would have been statistically significant....). This is when public transport I would envisage would be the most heavily used / most profitable for transport operators. The survey says before the outbreak 43% nationally used any public transport at least a few times per month and 80% used a car. The survey also says only 24% of people outside London used a bus (17% for train) a few times per month before restrictions on lockdown for the Cornavirus.

I understand the importance regarding the bigger picture of combining rail and bus (and other forms of travel) but from my experience of commuting around Wiltshire, Somerset, BANES I have seen the different socio demographics on rail and bus networks. So would argue due to the socio demographics the response to Coronavirus maybe would be different for train and bus commuters (including school kids).  (You may have seen my post asking for socio demographic travel stats for the area to back up my thoughts and experience...am sure the larger transport operators would have their own market research containing information on socio demographics for the South West...) but don't think they would be easily available so have decided to do this post...). So am I right in assuming train travellers would often have access to a car (as more likely to drive to the train station than catch the bus) so would be more likely to drive to work post lockdown (and only catch the train if saves money and time) than people who catch the bus. I am also assuming from my experience bus passengers are often from a poorer socio demographic background which is reflected in the cost of train being a more expensive mode of travel to bus in most cases during peak travel. My comments below specifically focus on bus as that is where my most of my recent experiences are...

My experience of commuting and travelling by bus to BANES, Somerset & Wiltshire suggests most of the commuter bus passengers (including school kids) probably don't have too much option but to use the bus so will continue to use the bus after Coronavirus. Most are lower paid retail / leisure / factory /office workers, school / college / university students, none of whom probably don't have the use of a car (not everyone can afford a car, don’t live in multi car households or their parents can't take them to school / college / university as they work and haven’t the the time). These people because of their occupation or when at school/college are more likely come into contact with a greater pool of people thus avoiding public transport wouldn’t really significantly mitigate the risk of catching the virus.

Other options to bus travel such as cycling or walking for rural villages mean distances are too great for commuting daily by such means e.g from Frome to Bath, Wells to Bristol, Melksham to Bath (or beyond). The local hilly terrain doesn’t make cycling a viable proposition for many.

I would see the biggest “threat” to public transport shift being remote working/home working by office workers. Potentially the greatest behavioural change affecting public transport will be in cities such as Bristol, London and other large cities where home working has been tested and shown to work during the lockdown. Previously many weren’t allowed people to work from home but now it’s been shown to be possible and given high rents for office space companies might opt to move to smaller premises with a high proportion of work being done remotely. This would save significant costs for businesses but mean bus operators would lose a worrying proportion of full fare paying bus passengers.

Maybe the biggest change post Coronavirus could be a decline in car use as more office workers who’ve driven to work switch to working from home more often. Given the option of working from home rather than in an office where you could be potentially exposed to Coronavirus who wouldn't work from home! This would have the benefit of freeing up more of the roads during the rush hour for buses!

But currently no one can be sure how this is going to pan out once the lockdown is eased …

Wonder what everyone’s thought on this?

In the first week of lockdown in a full duty with around 9 hours driving I was carrying single figures all duty.
By week 4 of lockdown it was a steady 20-30 per duty.
We are doing 3 on 3 off, I’m now on week 2 off, but colleagues I’m in contact with say numbers are increasing further especially the Peak services

With the choice of taking the train into Reading or going by bus, I would opt for the former, provided it was "turn up and go". (There's speculation in today's papers about needing to book a seat on trains, especially commuter ones.)

On a bus I'm prone to feel the need to grab something for support, especially if the vehicle moves off before I'm seated. And distancing and controlling the queue of passengers waiting to get off may prove challenging.

This of course doesn't only relate to a short trip to Readiung but all over the country.

I am concerned when I read again the now hoary old subject of compulsory reservation, especially for fairly local journeys. Whilst it would have some superficial merit in the railway being able to regulate the number of passengers on a train, by which perhaps passenger confidence would be increased, I  wonder how exactly it would work. Taking the Didcot to Reading run as an example (and taking figures out thin air to illustrate the point):

Maximum capacity = 10 people per coach, so 40 on a four car train. Passengers 41 to infinity are told they can't travel on that train. 32 on at Didcot, another 5 get on at Cholsey, 3 allowed on at Goring and the train is at capacity, so its a bit tough if anybody wants to use it from Pangbourne or Tilehurst. Or of course 5 may get off at Cholsey, and/or 3 at Pangbourne. The number of people that you would allow to join the train at any given point would have to be calculated between each station. Are systems currently available to do that?

What if people with reservations don't turn up? Would GWR and other TOCs expect a queue of people on standby milling around at each stop? If they do, how would you manage social distancing on an unstaffed station (or indeed a staffed one - where would you physically put 20 "standby" passengers at Didcot so they didn't get in the way of efverybody else)?

Practical issues like that would also need to be addressed, and I'm not sure that any TOC currently have the ability/ capacity to do it.

Limiting the number of passengers at any one point would actually be far easier on a bus, as a driver could simply count boarding and alighting passengers at each stop. I'm not sure that that would work on DOO trains...

_{Odditted for teepees beause I hit "submit" rather than "preview"... :)}

There are passenger counting systems on board some trains, but no easy way to provide that data to the CIS screens on platforms, and it isn't accurate enough to count the exact number of passengers.

I have a feeling the social distancing rules on trains and buses will be changed to one metre provided face masks are worn.  It would be useful if seat covers and padding were removed (where possible, such as on Turbos) or taped/bagged over to indicate which seats can be used.  That will help give quite a boost to capacity, perhaps enough to cope with initial demand?

Bus Lady makes many excellent and valid comments.  In the longer term, operations could be financially sustainable if we can shift car users onto bus and train and spread this across the day.  This may be out best opportunity but will require local authority, community and workplace collaboration to deliver the shared vision. Shift from car will require much greater public transport capacity.  This will be easier for bus to deliver.

It's still not clear to me who will pick up the lost income from running a bus in peak times with (say) 50-80 seats, to one carrying only 25? Maybe some will be made up by additional passengers in what is now off-peak, travelling to work on a staggered shift pattern.
Probably same considerations apply to train travel.

I can't see that happening at all. I think it will be the other way round; previous bus users will be driving. The problem with buses (and to a slightly lesser extent trains) will be not just capacity but fear.

Running buses is a very fine tightrope, after paying the driver, paying for the fuel and other running costs, there isn't much left over. Many companies perhaps rely on advanced fares for a big part their income, if staggered working begins to occur how much of those will be bought? The clever companies will hopefully rethink their ticketing structure rapidly and make journey advanced discounts rather than time constrained ones.

A 7% profit margin is seen as good in the industry, most operating between 1-3%.

It will be interesting to see how much longer this carries on for. Bristol mainly has buses running around with fresh air, it's not sustainable in the long term.

It might turn out that our current ideas of sustainable and unsustainable are unsustainable.

Meaning what?  You can't run a 80 seater double decker around with 2 passengers on board it won't make any money. The only reason these services are still operating is because the taxpayer is paying for it.  That's not sustainable, so maybe you'd care to explain your rationale?

The government are funding commercial operators to 100% of losses to encourage services to return to pre covid levels. Passenger numbers here in Cornwall are certainly picking up, although travel patterns appear to have changed.
Those routes receiving local authority subsidy are not eligible for the covid support from government

I'm wondering whether, in the long term, we might not find it better to define sustainable and unsustainable services in non-financial terms.

That's a fair point, but unless bus services become nationalised, they are commercial operations and have to be run as a business. My point was that the 48/49 bus in Bristol is running every 5 minutes with only 1 or 2 people on board, whilst these services are currently being subsidised by the government, what will happen when that funding dries up? Service cuts?

Public transport is running around virtually empty at the moment because the government is actively discouraging the public from using it. And, I suspect, there are many people who would be “allowed” to use public transport but currently won’t because they are afraid they will expose themselves to COVID-19.

What happens in the future is, at the moment, anybody’s guess. It may return to pre-pandemic levels, it may not, or indeed it might start an exponential increase. We won’t know until the government’s policy and the concerns of individuals change, and until then there is in my view precious lilt point in speculating about it. In order to predict anything you need facts and/or trends, and at the moment these are things we are severely short of.

The matter of commercial operation versus nationalisation has been raised. Neither is a panacea. The former requires sufficient bums on seats to make services commercially worthwhile. Nationalisation suggests government direction and possibly subsidy and, as many of us are old enough to remember, when governments think they need the money for something else (as some members of any government always will), you run the risk of lack of investment and the state decreeing what services will run where. The history books tell us what happens when governments start meddling, and the newspapers still tell us what happens when governments meddle with a franchise arrangement they specified theselves.

No more early trips for some people. Reading Buses have said that some LAs are reverting to normal rules on concessionary passes from June 15th
https://www.reading-buses.co.uk/changes-concessionary-pass-times (https://www.reading-buses.co.uk/changes-concessionary-pass-times)

I would assume that there will be other areas doing the same, and the Reading Buses might be updated before then.