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Title: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: grahame on July 03, 2020, 08:20:38
From Politics Home (https://www.politicshome.com/members/article/end-of-the-mondayfriday-commute-transport-watchdog-calls-for-urgent-rail-fares-reform)

Quote
End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares reform

Anthony Smith, Chief Executive | Transport Focus
03 July

Independent watchdog Transport Focus has written to the Secretary of State for Transport calling for rail fares reform.

Transport Focus’s latest Travel during Covid-19 survey shows people’s travel patterns have changed and are unlikely to return to the typical Monday-Friday commute any time soon.

Half of people in the survey of 2000 people expect to work from home more often in the future and more than a third (36 per cent) think their job will be homebased with limited travel to their workplace.

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic Transport Focus is urging the Government to reform the fares and ticketing system to offer better value. This could include more flexible season tickets or ‘carnets’ (which offer a discount for multiple journeys when bought upfront) for people returning to work part-time in the office and to suit the way people travel now.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Red Squirrel on July 03, 2020, 14:06:47
Just a thought: traditionally, blue-collar workers travel to work an hour or so earlier than white-collar workers. Many do this because that's what their contract demands, but others (for example self-employed plumbers, builders and so on) do so to beat the traffic. In general, white-collar workers are more likely to be able to work from home, thus freeing capacity in the peak. Will we start to see manual workers starting their day a bit later?

I'd be more than happy not to have to get up at the crack of dawn next time the electrician calls. At the moment I struggle to get up before the crack of noon...


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 04, 2020, 07:29:28
From Politics Home (https://www.politicshome.com/members/article/end-of-the-mondayfriday-commute-transport-watchdog-calls-for-urgent-rail-fares-reform)

Quote
End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares reform

Anthony Smith, Chief Executive | Transport Focus
03 July

Independent watchdog Transport Focus has written to the Secretary of State for Transport calling for rail fares reform.

Transport Focus’s latest Travel during Covid-19 survey shows people’s travel patterns have changed and are unlikely to return to the typical Monday-Friday commute any time soon.

Half of people in the survey of 2000 people expect to work from home more often in the future and more than a third (36 per cent) think their job will be homebased with limited travel to their workplace.

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic Transport Focus is urging the Government to reform the fares and ticketing system to offer better value. This could include more flexible season tickets or ‘carnets’ (which offer a discount for multiple journeys when bought upfront) for people returning to work part-time in the office and to suit the way people travel now.

If this comes to pass as the survey suggests, and there's a pretty good chance it will, whilst it will be a more pleasant experience for those who are travelling by train, surely overall it will be catastrophic for the railways in terms of demand/revenue?


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: IndustryInsider on July 04, 2020, 08:51:04
It will certainly be a game changer for the railways, who will need to shift their emphasis quite dramatically and the industry will need to change how it is run.  It is an industry very slow and reluctant to change.  Catastrophic is probably rather too dramatic a word however.

It will mean bigger changes for some franchises (or whatever evolves from those instead) over others - SWR, Southern, SouthEastern and c2c, will need to adapt more than Avanti West Coast or Cross Country.  GWR sits rather in the middle, though I suspect FirstGroup are more than happy to have recently offloaded most of the Reading to Paddington journeys to TfL Rail.

I’ve said on here recently that it’s not all bad news in that hundreds of carriages that solely exist to provide for the a couple of hours a day probably won’t be needed, so many operators will be able to streamline their fleet and increase productivity of what remains.  That being said, it’s not ideal that so many operators have recently ordered new trains based on commuter demand forecasts that are now very unlikely to be met.  I can see the scrap merchants being very busy in the coming years!

It is a very troubling time, though compared with the airline industry I think the railways are in quite good shape!


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: ellendune on July 04, 2020, 08:53:11
If this comes to pass as the survey suggests, and there's a pretty good chance it will, whilst it will be a more pleasant experience for those who are travelling by train, surely overall it will be catastrophic for the railways in terms of demand/revenue?

If it means that the demand is spread more evenly throughout the day wouldn't there not be some substantial cost savings though?  No more trains parked up waiting for the peak etc.  

Someone beat me to it...


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 04, 2020, 09:42:09
If this comes to pass as the survey suggests, and there's a pretty good chance it will, whilst it will be a more pleasant experience for those who are travelling by train, surely overall it will be catastrophic for the railways in terms of demand/revenue?

If it means that the demand is spread more evenly throughout the day wouldn't there not be some substantial cost savings though?  No more trains parked up waiting for the peak etc.  

Someone beat me to it...

Those trains still need to be serviced/maintained/driven (unless you're sending them to the scrapyard?), however I guess there is a potential for staff savings too with fewer of them trundling around.

"Demand spread more evenly" is one way of putting it, but in commercial terms it's a huge drop in peak commuter traffic, season tickets etc (bunce), with off peak traffic leisure travel staying pretty much the same?

It'd be interesting to see some modelling based on the suggested figures.

I'd suggest that GWR should look at improving their customer offer for their leisure routes, and increase services wherever possible to make it a more attractive option than the road/plane. It could be an opportunity for them, although as II suggests, the railways are not known for their adaptability or ability/willingness to change.





Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: IndustryInsider on July 04, 2020, 12:42:04
I'd suggest that GWR should look at improving their customer offer for their leisure routes, and increase services wherever possible to make it a more attractive option than the road/plane. It could be an opportunity for them, although as II suggests, the railways are not known for their adaptability or ability/willingness to change.

Yes indeed, and that was hinted at in the reply to a staff question about the Pullman that I posted the other day, as well as being talked about to the staff by the acting MD. 

Off peak frequencies have improved considerably over recent years across most franchises, so the industry is heading in the right direction there - though subsidies will continue to be required for most of the leisure dominant routes, so it all depends on the structure the government decide upon for the railway after the current emergency measures system ends. 

It will remain an incredibly important part of the fabric of the country for social and economic reasons even if commuter numbers are considerably hit.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Robin Summerhill on July 04, 2020, 15:02:36
I think that there might be an elephant in the room here.

If we work on the basis that commuter travel is unlikely to fully recover, then as already been said, this will have a negative effect on TOC revenues.

Further fare rises to make up the shortfall would not be widely appreciated, and could easily lead to diminishing returns as potential passengers find cheaper ways of making their journeys, not least by increasing the use of private cars.

This will mean cost savings. The usual immediate target for such savings is staffing. Whilst perhaps a few less train crews may be the result, I wonder whether this would be sufficient. Other savings would need to be found.

To take a couple of examples from my neck of the woods, plans are currently afoot to re-hash the forecourt of Chippenham station. Plans include changing the shape of the short stay and staff car parks, and widening the pedestrian access. Personally, even with my lousy eyesight, I can’t see anything wrong with the existing arrangements; no pedestrians need to walk into the road for need of wider pavements. Cars can happily park now and the buses can easily use their turning space, something that could actually be made easier by moving the 55 bus stop, because buses on layover there can make that turn difficult.

Moving a bus stop would improve the situation for a lot less that the Lord knows how much the fully-blown plan has been costed at.

There are also plans to provide a lift on the northern side. Unlike the changes to the forecourt, this will benefit a lot of passengers entering the station from this direction. But I understand that NR have quoted in the region of £1million for doing it.

£1 million for a two-storey lift shaft? When you don’t even need to buy any land to put it on? How many houses could you build for that sort of money?

Perhaps what urgently needs to be dealt with in Network Rail’s profligacy with other people’s money. A reduction in NRs costs could feed through to reduced track access charges, and perhaps that may be where the largest savings could be made.






Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Sixty3Closure on July 05, 2020, 15:15:04
I'm not sure how common it is on other routes but on Thames Valley the absence of 'fast' trains outside the morning peak is probably the biggest factor for me around shifting my working hours. Now there's some fast and semi fast in the evening out of London it would be good to extend that in the morning.

I could start work at 11 if I wanted but it adds 30 minutes to my commute which on what is already around 3 hours a day travelling and that's just a bit too much more. Equally I do occasionally start extra early but the first 'fast' train in the afternoon is just before 5PM. And its was very crowded as its quicker to catch than earlier trains.

Perhaps if demand is down it would be possible to provide a more 'smoothed out' timetable with the extra carriages which in turn might promote more flexible working.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: grahame on July 05, 2020, 17:01:29
If you were to even out the peaks you can make a huge difference in running costs.

A while back ( http://www.passenger.chat/23543 ) I did a fictitious study of a line from "A" to "B" find that the current cost of service provision was £24.76 per passenger journey, but levelling out the peak could reduce that to £18.44 or even £15.30 ... stunned silence on the Coffee Shop to my post, probably because it was very long, very technical, and didn't start with a management summary.

If - over the next decade or two - peak traffic were evened out, and passenger numbers grew, we could so easily end up with a much more cost effective system.    But that's counted without inflation and not allowing for Robin's spiralling Network Rail costs.

The reduction of the peak in relation to the rest of the day (in the figures above) shows just how much of a service community rail promoting leisure travel can be.   Just take care that a peak reduction for a year or two doesn't lead to a loss of resource that's then very expensive to build back.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 05, 2020, 17:07:16
If you were to even out the peaks you can make a huge difference in running costs.

A while back ( http://www.passenger.chat/23543 ) I did a fictitious study of a line from "A" to "B" find that the current cost of service provision was £24.76 per passenger journey, but levelling out the peak could reduce that to £18.44 or even £15.30 ... stunned silence on the Coffee Shop to my post, probably because it was very long, very technical, and didn't start with a management summary.

If - over the next decade or two - peak traffic were evened out, and passenger numbers grew, we could so easily end up with a much more cost effective system.    But that's counted without inflation and not allowing for Robin's spiralling Network Rail costs.

The reduction of the peak in relation to the rest of the day (in the figures above) shows just how much of a service community rail promoting leisure travel can be.   Just take care that a peak reduction for a year or two doesn't lead to a loss of resource that's then very expensive to build back.

Graham looking at the given context from the survey "Half of people in the survey of 2000 people expect to work from home more often in the future and more than a third (36 per cent) think their job will be homebased with limited travel to their workplace". - how do you arrive at a scenario where passenger numbers grow?


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: grahame on July 05, 2020, 17:35:48
Graham looking at the given context from the survey "Half of people in the survey of 2000 people expect to work from home more often in the future and more than a third (36 per cent) think their job will be homebased with limited travel to their workplace". - how do you arrive at a scenario where passenger numbers grow?

People in a survey will look forward perhaps 3 years;  I was looking ahead "a decade or two".   

Take a look at growth over the last 25 years.  Add to that the move to being ever more climate friendly, where using public transport becomes more admired and less of a stigma if you "have to" use it.  Perhaps put in a generous portion of vacations within the UK rather than flying. Look at the supply of new homes needed  - House of Commons briefing paper Number 07671, 9 March 2020 on Tackling the under-supply of housing in England:
Quote
Household growth is one factor affecting overall housing need. The number of new households in England is projected to grow by 159,000 per year, based on current trends.
• The backlog of existing need for suitable, affordable accommodation is often cited as another pressure on housing need, as is demand for more space by households that can afford it.
• There has been a range of research into the amount of new housing needed, with estimates as high as 340,000 new homes per year.
• The government’s target is to supply 300,000 new homes per year by the mid-2020s
• There is geographic variation in household growth and housing need, with more need in London and the south of England.
and whilst some of those relate to smaller households, much relates to rising population.   So although journeys per person may be be flattish, journeys overall is likely to increase.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 05, 2020, 17:47:59
Graham looking at the given context from the survey "Half of people in the survey of 2000 people expect to work from home more often in the future and more than a third (36 per cent) think their job will be homebased with limited travel to their workplace". - how do you arrive at a scenario where passenger numbers grow?

People in a survey will look forward perhaps 3 years;  I was looking ahead "a decade or two".   

Take a look at growth over the last 25 years.  Add to that the move to being ever more climate friendly, where using public transport becomes more admired and less of a stigma if you "have to" use it.  Perhaps put in a generous portion of vacations within the UK rather than flying. Look at the supply of new homes needed  - House of Commons briefing paper Number 07671, 9 March 2020 on Tackling the under-supply of housing in England:
Quote
Household growth is one factor affecting overall housing need. The number of new households in England is projected to grow by 159,000 per year, based on current trends.
• The backlog of existing need for suitable, affordable accommodation is often cited as another pressure on housing need, as is demand for more space by households that can afford it.
• There has been a range of research into the amount of new housing needed, with estimates as high as 340,000 new homes per year.
• The government’s target is to supply 300,000 new homes per year by the mid-2020s
• There is geographic variation in household growth and housing need, with more need in London and the south of England.
and whilst some of those relate to smaller households, much relates to rising population.   So although journeys per person may be be flattish, journeys overall is likely to increase.

None of which really addresses the issues of seismic changes in working habits.

Given rapidly evolving technology, which even at this stage has enabled so many to carry on working at home almost seamlessly over the last few months, I struggle to see a scenario in which over "a decade or two", there is a resurgence of people clamouring to return to the office, but I suppose it's a possibility.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Robin Summerhill on July 05, 2020, 18:45:15
I struggle to see a scenario in which over "a decade or two", there is a resurgence of people clamouring to return to the office, but I suppose it's a possibility.

Perhaps my eyesight is worse the usual this afternoon but I can’t find the sentence where he said that. I think he is arguing that public transport usage may increase for environmental reasons, not because of an increase in commuting.

I would, however, take a counter view to “Perhaps put in a generous portion of vacations within the UK rather than flying.” The main reasons for the growth of bucket and spade continental holidays had more to do with the vagaries of the British weather and a short summer season resulting in higher prices to allow the traders to make a living. Neither of those factors have changed


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 06, 2020, 06:54:23
I struggle to see a scenario in which over "a decade or two", there is a resurgence of people clamouring to return to the office, but I suppose it's a possibility.

Perhaps my eyesight is worse the usual this afternoon but I can’t find the sentence where he said that. I think he is arguing that public transport usage may increase for environmental reasons, not because of an increase in commuting.

I would, however, take a counter view to “Perhaps put in a generous portion of vacations within the UK rather than flying.” The main reasons for the growth of bucket and spade continental holidays had more to do with the vagaries of the British weather and a short summer season resulting in higher prices to allow the traders to make a living. Neither of those factors have changed


The survey which was the subject of this thread and gave it its context referred specifically to changing working practices, a reduction in commuting and consequent huge fall in passenger numbers. As I read it (wearing my glasses, which equally may need testing!), Graham suggested that people may only be looking a few years ahead in respect of these habits and that attitudes may change in the longer term.

Then you "add to that" the more climate friendly aspect of rail travel versus some other means etc as other factors.

Agreed re: holidays, as the sudden surge in bookings for foreign/beach holidays as restrictions lift is demonstrating.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: grahame on July 06, 2020, 07:04:54
We are on really dangerous territory as we try to predict changing patterns into the future; I'm pretty certain that we can't be certain ...

But let's take a line with 50% commuter / business traffic pre-pandemic, and then have 50% of that traffic reduce their trips by 50%.  Multiply the factors, and you have a 12.5% drop in passengers.  Now take a town on that line and increase its population within the station catchment from 25,000 to 32,000 and that's a volumetric increase of 28%.  Net GROWTH in commuter traffic 12%, likely growth in leisure / personal traffic 28%.

The survey which was the subject of this thread and gave it its context referred specifically to changing working practices, a reduction in commuting and consequent huge fall in passenger numbers ...

I was writing / doing my arithmetic in parallel.  Think my comments stand. But adding - there is potential for the peaks to be very much less peaky.  And goodness knows what that does the fare models ... probably depends on government objectives?


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Bmblbzzz on July 06, 2020, 09:42:29
I wonder how much of a de-peaking we will actually see? Already many firms are recalling their employees into their offices – some go eagerly, some not. The main motivation for long-term WFH is going to be reduced costs, which is mainly in the form of smaller office space, so mostly applicable to larger companies. We'll have to wait and see how leases are renegotiated, which of course is going to bring its own economic and other effects. It does seem though that where people are returning to office working, they're doing so on conventional office hours.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 06, 2020, 15:36:11
I wonder how much of a de-peaking we will actually see? Already many firms are recalling their employees into their offices – some go eagerly, some not. The main motivation for long-term WFH is going to be reduced costs, which is mainly in the form of smaller office space, so mostly applicable to larger companies. We'll have to wait and see how leases are renegotiated, which of course is going to bring its own economic and other effects. It does seem though that where people are returning to office working, they're doing so on conventional office hours.

Interesting. Sources for any of that?


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Celestial on July 06, 2020, 15:45:07
I wonder how much of a de-peaking we will actually see? Already many firms are recalling their employees into their offices – some go eagerly, some not. The main motivation for long-term WFH is going to be reduced costs, which is mainly in the form of smaller office space, so mostly applicable to larger companies. We'll have to wait and see how leases are renegotiated, which of course is going to bring its own economic and other effects. It does seem though that where people are returning to office working, they're doing so on conventional office hours.

Interesting. Sources for any of that?
Of all of my family, friends, former colleagues who work in banking, insurance, law, and local authority, all of them are being told that they are working from home for the forseeable future, possibly until the end of the year. That's in London, the West Country and Wales. So I'm rather sceptical of the assertion. Yes, there will be some drift back, but I certainly won't be investing in office property companies in the near future. I think the bottom has just dropped out of that market, with the realisation that much smaller and cheaper square footage can be utilised in future, COVID or no COVID.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: stuving on July 06, 2020, 16:23:50
I wonder how much of a de-peaking we will actually see? Already many firms are recalling their employees into their offices – some go eagerly, some not. The main motivation for long-term WFH is going to be reduced costs, which is mainly in the form of smaller office space, so mostly applicable to larger companies. We'll have to wait and see how leases are renegotiated, which of course is going to bring its own economic and other effects. It does seem though that where people are returning to office working, they're doing so on conventional office hours.

Interesting. Sources for any of that?
Of all of my family, friends, former colleagues who work in banking, insurance, law, and local authority, all of them are being told that they are working from home for the forseeable future, possibly until the end of the year. That's in London, the West Country and Wales. So I'm rather sceptical of the assertion. Yes, there will be some drift back, but I certainly won't be investing in office property companies in the near future. I think the bottom has just dropped out of that market, with the realisation that much smaller and cheaper square footage can be utilised in future, COVID or no COVID.

But if you are running a railway (and this goes for a lot of other things) the end of this year isn't even short term - it's just a temporary blip. The fact that "foreseeable" is so short at the moment should perhaps tell us something: not to try planning anything while we don't have a clue what will be needed even in two years' time.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 06, 2020, 16:24:30
I wonder how much of a de-peaking we will actually see? Already many firms are recalling their employees into their offices – some go eagerly, some not. The main motivation for long-term WFH is going to be reduced costs, which is mainly in the form of smaller office space, so mostly applicable to larger companies. We'll have to wait and see how leases are renegotiated, which of course is going to bring its own economic and other effects. It does seem though that where people are returning to office working, they're doing so on conventional office hours.

Interesting. Sources for any of that?
Of all of my family, friends, former colleagues who work in banking, insurance, law, and local authority, all of them are being told that they are working from home for the forseeable future, possibly until the end of the year. That's in London, the West Country and Wales. So I'm rather sceptical of the assertion. Yes, there will be some drift back, but I certainly won't be investing in office property companies in the near future. I think the bottom has just dropped out of that market, with the realisation that much smaller and cheaper square footage can be utilised in future, COVID or no COVID.

Absolutely agree with that and it matches my experience - my company is anything but large and we're being told that other than essential workers (which basically means tradesmen) we're WFH until October earliest, and have been invited to consider whether we would like to move to a different working pattern or be based primarily at home in future..

Funnily enough though I nipped into the office today to pick up some IT kit - train from Taplow - Ealing virtually empty at about 0945, Tube from Ealing same - slightly busier coming back (1530 ish) but nothing to write home about.

London was actually quite pleasant although a bit surreal being so quiet.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Celestial on July 06, 2020, 17:20:11

But if you are running a railway (and this goes for a lot of other things) the end of this year isn't even short term - it's just a temporary blip. The fact that "foreseeable" is so short at the moment should perhaps tell us something: not to try planning anything while we don't have a clue what will be needed even in two years' time.
You're missing the point. This crisis has proved that with modern technology, not only is it possible for a large proportion of the workforce to work from home, it's very attractive financially and with little if any impairment on productivity.

The cost of office accommodation in Central London is around £20k to £25k pa in rent, rates and ancillary costs per desk. (Or at least it was - I doubt future rental yields will be consistent with that type of figure.) Added to which the employee has daily travel costs which are often not insubstantial, plus the time and stress of the journey. It's one of those rare occasions when it's a win-win for employee and employer. 


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Sixty3Closure on July 06, 2020, 17:49:45

But if you are running a railway (and this goes for a lot of other things) the end of this year isn't even short term - it's just a temporary blip. The fact that "foreseeable" is so short at the moment should perhaps tell us something: not to try planning anything while we don't have a clue what will be needed even in two years' time.
You're missing the point. This crisis has proved that with modern technology, not only is it possible for a large proportion of the workforce to work from home, it's very attractive financially and with little if any impairment on productivity.

The cost of office accommodation in Central London is around £20k to £25k pa in rent, rates and ancillary costs per desk. (Or at least it was - I doubt future rental yields will be consistent with that type of figure.) Added to which the employee has daily travel costs which are often not insubstantial, plus the time and stress of the journey. It's one of those rare occasions when it's a win-win for employee and employer. 


I work for a large company (20K+) and its not quite win-win. There's been a surge in additional costs such as laptops, headsets, webcams. We've pushed back on furniture such as chairs, desks, monitors, keyboards but if people are expected to work this way for the foreseeable future then those requests will come back. The surveys we've done on staff well being show that middle-aged, middle managers and above generally like the new ways of working but anyone under 35 in a bedsit or house share are struggling. Many people have found their broadband isn't up to it and getting demands for contributions or accept reduced effectiveness.

Technically our infrastructure assumes most people are in the building on the local network. Its going to be expensive and challenging to change that to most people connecting remotely.

Also for many companies the central London (or other cities) offices aren't going to go away and moving isn't a simple thing for medium sized companies and above. At the moment we're losing money despite a near empty building and I can't see that changing in the short term.

I think the biggest argument though is that we've found so many people have struggled mentally to work in the new ways and don't want to. We're looking at 'blended' working one week in two weeks out type working to try address that. I'd also hate to start a new job in this sort of environment.

Personally I am really hoping we can move to new ways of working but I know I'm fortunate in having a study, large garden, a long history in my current role and work that doesn't need me to travel into the office too often. 


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: PhilWakely on July 06, 2020, 18:46:24
I work for a large company (20K+) and its not quite win-win. There's been a surge in additional costs such as laptops, headsets, webcams. We've pushed back on furniture such as chairs, desks, monitors, keyboards but if people are expected to work this way for the foreseeable future then those requests will come back. The surveys we've done on staff well being show that middle-aged, middle managers and above generally like the new ways of working but anyone under 35 in a bedsit or house share are struggling. Many people have found their broadband isn't up to it and getting demands for contributions or accept reduced effectiveness.

My son and his wife have both been working from home. Whilst their home broadband is up to it, more often than not, my son has to start work late into the afternoon and finish after midnight simply because his company's network is unable to handle the amount of traffic. His wife, on the other hand, has no problem during the 'normal working day', but her boss wants his team back in the office sooner rather than later.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Bmblbzzz on July 06, 2020, 19:06:12
Some people love wfh, some hate it, just as with other aspects of lockdown and the 'new normal' (which to me is looking increasingly like the old normal). 63closure mentioned he'd hate to start a new job in this situation – there's been a lot of talk of keeping in touch with employees and teams for both mental health and work efficiency, but if you were recruiting now, how do you make someone feel a part of a team when they've never met the others in the team? How do you develop any corporate loyalty when the corporation is a 'virtual' entity? How do you ensure security when people are working with their own, possibly outdated, hardware and software and sending data over a flaky wifi shared with housemates? Lots of potential but lots of problems too.

I'm sure some companies will go officeless, some will return to everyone in one building 9 to 5, some will adopt some sort of hybrid scheme. I'm not going to predict which ones will do what or who will react how!


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Celestial on July 06, 2020, 19:11:48
I agree that infrastructure changes will be necessary, although I suspect many companies may well have already taken action or be in the process of doing so. As for furniture, laptops etc, you can buy a lot of that for 25k a year at London rents.

Remember, companies renting office space are locked into leases which means they may have no immediate need to take action. But if you are XYZ Bank whose lease is up for renewal next year, you will look very, very, closely before locking yourself into a new 10 year lease. 1,000 employees, that's £25m over 10 years.  Cut by half, that's a nice saving, and a reasonable balance of time in the office and WFH. And you have time to plan for it, as you know when your lease expires.

I also wouldn't want to be a company that offers disaster recovery workspaces. I'm guessing these were predominately redundant this time around (unless they enabled much more spaced out working), and I would imagine would in future be replaced in company's DR plans by WFH.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: IndustryInsider on July 06, 2020, 23:23:49
Some good points on both side of the discussion as to where we'll end up in terms of lost commuting due to more people working from home.

There obviously will be a significant drop, but nobody yet knows whether it will be 10%, 25%, 50% or more.  We'll just have to wait and see.  As the article says though, the railway industry would be wise to try and position itself as best it can by offering flexible season ticket options ASAP on all fares.

I would not want to be the owner of large office spaces in big cities at the moment though, as when those leases come up for renewal it will be the current occupiers that hold all the cards.  I can see many blocks being part leased to companies that would previously have occupied a whole building, so they can still ensure some of the benefits of people working together together and not virtually together.  I can see many more laying empty!


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Bmblbzzz on July 07, 2020, 11:41:23
A completely empty building would be ripe for conversion to flats or stud accomm. The half-empty ones would be a problem.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Ralph Ayres on July 07, 2020, 13:05:26
I've been working at home since my employer - ironically, a large transport organisation - pre-empted the government's guidance by a full week. 

While the technology broadly allows us to keep going, it's all very clinical and I'm increasingly feeling that I'm working in a silo, with none of the informal interaction with people I don't directly work with. Where previously information was often shared almost by accident as a natural result of being in the same space, we now have to make a real effort.  I'm isolated from the wider picture, I only hear about things outside my direct role if someone thinks to tell me, and increasingly what I do seems like an academic exercise with no practical outcome.  Perversely I also get told too much about things I'm not interested in because management want to avoid me feeling isolated! To a great extent working from home is made easier by the fact that I already knew the colleagues I now deal with only by phone/email/text/Skype/Zoom/Teams, but over time as staff turn over I will know none of the quirks, individualities or interests of new arrivals, nor they of me; not a recipe for getting the best out of people.  Innovation, creativity and effectiveness will all suffer.

Many of us are now feeling that while the option of working from home part of the time is wonderful, we really do want to be back in the same shared space for a significant part of the time, so offices and transport will still be needed.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: IndustryInsider on July 07, 2020, 13:23:53
I expect there will be a bit of a WFH novelty fall off amongst some.  The worst case scenario for the railways is that a major percentage of the previous commuting fraternity do a Monday and Friday WFH and go into the office on a Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  That would be very difficult to cater for effectively.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: broadgage on July 07, 2020, 14:01:09
Except during a short term emergency, many employees are a bit doubtful about working from home for the simple risk that if THEY can work from home, they perceive a risk that someone else could do their job from their home in say India, for 10% of the salary.

Ironically, the most secure jobs in the near term might be shelf stacking and burger flipping, as these cant be done from home, and then offshored.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Celestial on July 07, 2020, 14:05:08
Except during a short term emergency, many employees are a bit doubtful about working from home for the simple risk that if THEY can work from home, they perceive a risk that someone else could do their job from their home in say India, for 10% of the salary.


Do you have any evidence of that, or is it simply your opinion? If the latter, I suspect it is a little out of alignment with actual attitudes.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Bmblbzzz on July 07, 2020, 14:29:17
To a great extent working from home is made easier by the fact that I already knew the colleagues I now deal with only by phone/email/text/Skype/Zoom/Teams, but over time as staff turn over I will know none of the quirks, individualities or interests of new arrivals, nor they of me; not a recipe for getting the best out of people.  Innovation, creativity and effectiveness will all suffer.
The interaction between work and leisure is out of the strict scope of this topic but it remains the case that work is where a lot of people meet a lot of other people. If we work without actually meeting and getting to know people, this will inevitably have an impact on our social lives and therefore on our social travel too.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: broadgage on July 07, 2020, 15:38:40
Except during a short term emergency, many employees are a bit doubtful about working from home for the simple risk that if THEY can work from home, they perceive a risk that someone else could do their job from their home in say India, for 10% of the salary.


Do you have any evidence of that, or is it simply your opinion? If the latter, I suspect it is a little out of alignment with actual attitudes.

I have only anecdotal evidence, based largely on maintaining office buildings for many years and overhearing conversations therein.
Office personnel selected for "voluntary" home working often regarded this as being a sign that their job was about to be outsourced or offshored. 
Direct experience was confined to those managers immediately above me who worked from home during transport strikes, It was most unwise to disturb such managers whilst they were playing golf were in important client meetings.

Those who overdid such meetings were usually the first to go in the next "headcount review"


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: IndustryInsider on July 07, 2020, 15:52:37
Except during a short term emergency, many employees are a bit doubtful about working from home for the simple risk that if THEY can work from home, they perceive a risk that someone else could do their job from their home in say India, for 10% of the salary.

What's the old crystal ball predicting then, Broadgage?  Many employees will turn down the offer to work from home permanently insisting they go back into the office for fear of losing their jobs?  Or will we see mass unemployment due to many jobs being outsourced to India that were previously done by employees commuting to the office?


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Celestial on July 07, 2020, 20:54:16

I have only anecdotal evidence, based largely on maintaining office buildings for many years and overhearing conversations therein.
Office personnel selected for "voluntary" home working often regarded this as being a sign that their job was about to be outsourced or offshored. 
Direct experience was confined to those managers immediately above me who worked from home during transport strikes, It was most unwise to disturb such managers whilst they were playing golf were in important client meetings.

Those who overdid such meetings were usually the first to go in the next "headcount review"
It sounds as though that may have been a few years ago. Things have changed dramatically in the last ten years. The three employers with whom I have had a close association over that time have all taken to actively encouraging WFH, and have reduced their desk to staff ratio to between 70% and 80%. Which is the clearest statement you can make that they expect WFH as a norm. And that's before the pandemic. (One of them is one of the top 10 employers in the UK in the private sector, just in case you think they were tiddlers.)

They have all, as part of the culture change, encouraged flexible working. Need a morning off to go to the School Sports Day?  No problem. Need to finish early on Wednesdays each week to collect the sprog. No problem. So long as you work the hours needed and get the job done, work the hours that suit you.

So if you think that managers then regard those WFH as shirkers then really you are living in a different age. Which I have, I'll admit, suspected for quite some time. Offices haven't needed space for typing pools for quite a few years you might also be surprised to hear. 


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: grahame on July 08, 2020, 09:54:28
I have been following ths discussions on this thread ... this whole "will people work from home" business, what it means - in terms of getitng the job done, in terms of working with and getting to know colleagues, in terms of being "next out the door", in terms of travel effiiency, in terms of learning into the job.  I've worked from home in many roles and my conclusion is that this is a very moveable feast, depending on
* the characters involved and
* travel metrics as well as
* the job itself to be done and
* the phase of learning the individual is into learning the job and
* trust between employee and employer in both directions.

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/gje_wfhrecord.jpg)

Journey times are home to office; those marked "train" include walks to / from stations.

I have ... typically ... loved working from home.   It's saved a lot of travel, and it's probably resulted in me doing a lot more hours rather than less.  But it *is* good to meet up with colleagues from time to time.

What perhaps has not arisen as a discussion is the need to balance a staffed office at the same time as picking up these efficiencies of working from home.   That's my "WFH El" - Working from home element which means that even where I have shouted "YES - working from home" that does not mean every day;  I have taken part in and been involved in rotas where I have, never the less, been the one in the office taking support calls (in the days before phone diverts) - or there to support others working at the same place in a specialist role - or to prepare and serve breakfasts!


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Red Squirrel on July 08, 2020, 11:46:08
I've been working from home for nearly 20 years now, but before that I worked in standard Dilbert-style offices for a couple of companies.

In my experience, any organisation will have some people who work hard and get on with the job, some who do what they have to do to get through the day, and some who actively seek to sabotage others' efforts. Making it all work requires good management. The fact that someone arrives on time and sits at their desk all day is no measure at all of how productive they are.

I think the current crisis has killed stone dead the old idea that you can't be doing any work if you aren't in the office, or that you can't manage people if you can't see them. When you employ someone to do some work for you, the important thing is the result - a completed piece of work - rather than where it was done, or (within reason) how long it took.

It is possible that some employers may look again at 'offshoring' work in this context, but I doubt this will have a huge impact. Time zones, language and other issues often make this less attractive than the initial bottom line price might suggest. A mate of mine used to be an Offshoring Consultant. A few years ago his job title changed to 'Rightshoring Consultant'; basically bringing work back from India because it hadn't been a great success. (I think Flanders and Swann may have written a song about this kind of activity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1dvAxA9ib0)


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Bmblbzzz on July 08, 2020, 20:06:55
Time zones can also make it more attractive. I used to work in the Bangalore office of a California-based company (an unglamorous offshoot of Hollywood) which had offices distributed around the world in such a way that there was always at least one office at work. When our work was finished, it used to go to Vancouver or sometimes London, who'd send it back to us for the next process, and so on.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: grahame on July 08, 2020, 20:25:47
Time zones can also make it more attractive. ...

Indeed ... I had a couple of those between the USA and UK.

We (in Wiltshire) had a software contract for a company based in Florida and with staff spread very thinly (working from home largely) across the USA.   Urgent issues reported during the USA day were looked at in the UK morning and answered by the time the Americans got up.

In the other direction, working in Basingstoke doing first level support at the European office of a USA Company from San Diego,  I could pass issues in at the end of the day with a likelihood of a fax (remember them?) in the fax machine when I got in to work in the morning.   Whether the faxed information answered the question was, of course, another matter ...


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Bmblbzzz on July 09, 2020, 13:39:20
I've just heard some of the latest news at a global REIT (real estate investment trust). There was talk of work from home potentially reducing office demand but they seem more concerned about the effect of restrictions on retail. They also said that LA is now a more attractive office market than SF because, in part, it's less dependent on public transport. Bear in mind though 'long term' for these people is end of the next quarter.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Sixty3Closure on July 17, 2020, 12:20:57
I've just had a survey from GWR on my travel habits and expected travel habits. Quite interesting trying to look at the thinking behind some of the questions such as 'would you be interested in a weekly season ticket which you could use 3 days a week' as well as lots of questions about am I coming back to work, how will I travel etc.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Robin Summerhill on July 17, 2020, 16:24:46
I've just had a survey from GWR on my travel habits and expected travel habits. Quite interesting trying to look at the thinking behind some of the questions such as 'would you be interested in a weekly season ticket which you could use 3 days a week' as well as lots of questions about am I coming back to work, how will I travel etc.

GWR appear to be tryingto get some ideas on how travel habits are likely to change (if indeed they will) and what sort of service provision will be needed.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Sixty3Closure on July 17, 2020, 16:30:59
My only feedback would be that there was no free text box for feedback.

Big factor for me would be the timetable which currently restricts my travel times and 3 days a week travel is probably a bit high for me for the relative cost. Something like 8 days a month travel would probably be more likely to tempt me back. Otherwise I might as well carry working remotely because of the cost.


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 17, 2020, 16:33:20
I've just had a survey from GWR on my travel habits and expected travel habits. Quite interesting trying to look at the thinking behind some of the questions such as 'would you be interested in a weekly season ticket which you could use 3 days a week' as well as lots of questions about am I coming back to work, how will I travel etc.

GWR appear to be tryingto get some ideas on how travel habits are likely to change (if indeed they will) and what sort of service provision will be needed.

Do you genuinely think there's an "if" involved?

Logical solution is an Oyster card type facility, would save a lot of season ticket faff (and yes, I know, before it starts, Oooooooooooooooo's gonna pay for it etc!)  :)


Title: Re: End of the Monday-Friday commute? Transport watchdog calls for urgent rail fares
Post by: Surrey 455 on July 17, 2020, 19:34:15
Logical solution is an Oyster card type facility, would save a lot of season ticket faff (and yes, I know, before it starts, Oooooooooooooooo's gonna pay for it etc!)  :)


Something like Tap2Go from sister company SWR? Looks interesting but a major flaw is that it cannot be used to/from London.

https://www.southwesternrailway.com/train-tickets/ticket-types/tap2go



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