Great Western Coffee Shop

All across the Great Western territory => Looking forward - after Coronavirus to 2045 => Topic started by: grahame on August 16, 2020, 02:19:15 pm



Title: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on August 16, 2020, 02:19:15 pm
From the Confederation of Passenger Transport (https://twitter.com/CPT_UK/status/1294257466406912003/photo/1)

Quote
Greater congestion will increase journey times across the bus network, driving up running costs and pushing down passenger numbers. This is why we need to put bus travel at the heart of transport planning and encourage more people onto the bus #betterwithbus

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/pubreturn_20207.jpg)

Around 84% of GWR trains are running ... and each with a capacity of around 25% of normal - so that's an overall network capacity of around 21%. Reading off the graph about, it would appear that rail travel is somewhere between 15% and 10% of pre-covid levels so that trains are relatively quiet still - even measured against changed capacity.

Of course it's not "that simple":
Distribution by lines
Distribution by country (England, Scotland, Wales)
Distribution by time of day
Distribution by individual services
Distribution between individuals and bubble groups

Noted from my Heart of Wessex post (http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=23865.msg292899#msg292899) and comparison to Heart of Wales (http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=23771.15) ... you see a massive step up in terms of loading %age in one case and a step down, I suspect, to virtual zero in the other.

... you see the overloading on new percentages predominantly on trains based in Bristol - Cardiff to Portsmouth, Weymouth and Weston-super-mare, with some London to West of England services also busy

... you see good movement away from the morning peak with people being told to travel at quieter times.  The busiest time of day remains the evening peak, but even there the traffic levels as a proportion of the traffic through the whole day are reduced.   And the with the peaks knocked off, that traffic proportion has been moved to during the day.

If these pattern changes are maitained for the future, perhaps we will see a rebalance of services towards more regional services, and perhaps the changes will make it more econimic to run the railways as there will be less need for strengthened trains for just one service at each end of the day.

I note a post elsewhere talking about fare changes next month.  Interesting.  With the morning peak eliminate at present, should that early time remain peak?  Should railcards that click in at 09:30 or 10:00 really do so?  Has anyone been saying "Look - I've been working from home, but I'll come in to catch up.  I will do what the governemnt wants and travel away from the peak and that will also make a big saving" ...
   Melksham to Paddington - Anytime (period) return, out on 05:33 or 07:53 - £182.00
   Melksham to Paddington - Out on 10:02, back on any train - £124.50 (2 x singles)
   Melksham to Paddington - Out on 10:02, back on 16:32 - £76.70 (Off peak return)
   Melksham to Paddington - Out on 10:02, back on last train - £57.60 (Super off peak return)
   or think
   Melksham to Paddington - Week season - £290.20
which is the logical choice for anyone doing a full week, or close to it ... much rarer these days


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: FarWestJohn on August 16, 2020, 07:30:52 pm
I travelled from Falmouth to Penzance yesterday and bought my ticket at Truro. But I do not think many of the people who got on and off at intermediate stations had a ticket. The locals reckon the Falmouth branch is free if you are not going through the Truro barriers and trains are quite busy. There are no on train ticket checks or at Penzance so I do not understand how they know how many people are travelling if they are doing it from tickets sold?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: trainbuff on August 16, 2020, 10:00:22 pm
There are separate ways to add passenger counts and send them off. This still gives a factual picture even if some of the counts are sensibly estimated


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: CMRail on August 16, 2020, 10:12:31 pm
Is there a possibility that people are taking advantage of the fact that on-board of ticket examinations have been suspended?

And on that matter - are they still suspended or has revenue protection continued? As soon as it does the better.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on August 16, 2020, 10:49:56 pm
Is there a possibility that people are taking advantage of the fact that on-board of ticket examinations have been suspended?

And on that matter - are they still suspended or has revenue protection continued? As soon as it does the better.

Welcome back (noting your other post) ... It's been a very different time.

Priority has been given to safety - however the risk is reducing, and the revenue collectable on slightly busier trains slightly higher amount.

Individual train stats are not based on ticket sales.  Without all trains being all reservation and no last minute catching a later one, loading has to be done by staff count estimate, or weighing the passengers.



Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on August 16, 2020, 11:00:29 pm
Not exactly core Great Western Railway (GWR) territory, but I can give some observations from Wokingham. Road traffic had picked up a little by a month ago, but since then the route avoiding the level crossing has been closed for gas main works under the Guildford line bridge. That carries more traffic, which has been coming our way (and a lot of emergency vehicles). But that's now reopened, so we'll see what we're left with later this week.

SWR service levels barely dropped and have now returned to normal. Thw GWR North Downs service is still halved to 1 Train Per Hour (TPH) during the day with a few extras in the peak. My usual usage would be to go to Reading before or after lunch, and I'd not expect to see many passengers then. Coming home could get busy for schools and for GWR services around 5-6 pm, but the longer SWR trains less so.

Obviously no schools now, and a visual check suggests the evening peak is still well below normal but it's hard to put a number on that. For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low. The car park holds 531, and its new bit on stilts added 186. Assuming that number was both necessary and sufficient, it must have been running at 400-500 BV.

Throughout the lockdown I only once counted double figures, and after work was made respectable again that went up only once to over 20. Then at the start of August it went up to just under 30 each day, before dropping back to under 20 this week. So that's, what, 3%? Mostly, I think that says that people who live round here have jobs that can be done from home quite well. And they have been.


Edit: VickiS - Clarifying acronyms


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: CyclingSid on August 17, 2020, 06:52:57 am
Latest national figures use of transport modes in Great Britain:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/908785/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/908785/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods)
The data on this link is updated on a regular basis. Not sure why there is no cycling data for the latest week.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on August 17, 2020, 08:58:27 am
For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low.

I question your assertion.  I wonder if those who drive to the station are returning to the train far slower than those who get to the station on foot or by bicycle - simply because they have the option of making the whole journey in their car, and have been frightened off by the messages on the use of public transport.  Those who have no such private vehicle option for the major miles of their journey have had to try / revert to the train.

Anecdotal evidence (my own eyes, small sample, not really looking at this shift) at Melksham suggests a significant passenger volume, but mostly walking, cycling or being dropped off / picked up.  There is, though a complicating factor at Melksham in that car parking for rail users was free prior to the pandemic, but is only free for up to 30 minutes now.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on August 17, 2020, 10:55:12 am
For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low.

I question your assertion.  I wonder if those who drive to the station are returning to the train far slower than those who get to the station on foot or by bicycle - simply because they have the option of making the whole journey in their car, and have been frightened off by the messages on the use of public transport.  Those who have no such private vehicle option for the major miles of their journey have had to try / revert to the train.

Anecdotal evidence (my own eyes, small sample, not really looking at this shift) at Melksham suggests a significant passenger volume, but mostly walking, cycling or being dropped off / picked up.  There is, though a complicating factor at Melksham in that car parking for rail users was free prior to the pandemic, but is only free for up to 30 minutes now.

What you say is true, except that those who have a sensible car commuting distance would not pay the £8.60 per day or £1159 annually for the car park. Anyone going to Reading, or changing there for short distances, would go by car all the way. So while there may be a few commuting by bishop's or knight's moves other than into London, I still think the bulk of those paying the extra (and leaving their car unavailable and at risk) are going into London. But yes, that is a supposition.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: bobm on August 23, 2020, 11:05:50 am
As has been reported the morning rush hour has certainly not returned.  Apparently the peak, at least on GWR, is currently between 10 and 11am no doubt driven by day trips.

It was definitely noticeable how quiet Paddington was at 7.30am midweek last week.

(http://www.mbob.co.uk/rforum/padrush.jpg)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on January 29, 2021, 07:27:38 pm
For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low. The car park holds 531, and its new bit on stilts added 186. Assuming that number was both necessary and sufficient, it must have been running at 400-500 BV.

Throughout the lockdown I only once counted double figures, and after work was made respectable again that went up only once to over 20. Then at the start of August it went up to just under 30 each day, before dropping back to under 20 this week. So that's, what, 3%? Mostly, I think that says that people who live round here have jobs that can be done from home quite well. And they have been.

Following on from the above, numbers rose slowly through August, and I expected a big rise with the return to work and school of September 8th. That actually happened rather later, and irregularly, reaching 40 on a couple of days before 20th.

Then I started keeping a note of the number of cars in the car park (both bits together) on my daily walks. However, I didn't transfer those into a table here until recently, finishing today. There are gaps in the record (mostly when it was cold or wet!). That table is the next post.



Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on January 29, 2021, 07:34:30 pm
Number of cars in the Wokingham Station car parks (capacity 531), seen at some time during 10-4.

W/S      Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri    Notes
21/9 29 42~ 42~ 40 35 "stay at home" advice from Thursday
28/9 23 40 40 53~  -
  5/10 23  - 43 45 37
12/10 3129 39 46 41
19/10 37 29  - 36 26
26/10 17 22 30 37 45 Half term
  2/11 23 39 27 19 18 "Lockdown 2" from Thursday
  9/11 17 18 19 27 15
16/11 27 26 28 27 21
23/11 15 16 15 17 19
30/11 19 19 18  - 23
7/12 19 29 41 43 21
14/12 26 24 25 - 27
21/12 17 - 7 3 - didn't look Xmas week
4/1/21 14 8 7 - - "Lockdown 3" from Tuesday
11/1 7 8 8 - -
18/1 11 11 - 10 15
25/1 12 14 16 12 12
  1/2 13 14 14 19 12
8/2 - - - - - too cold all week!
15/2 10 16 - 16 12
22/2 15 11 12 16 9
1/3 1413* 9*14* 9* *not counting Tighe's vans, but maybe a few workers' cars
8/317*21*21*17*19*   back-to-school week
15/315*12* 9*11* 18
~ approx.
updated 21/3


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on March 21, 2021, 08:44:56 am
An update from The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/20/mind-the-gaps-will-we-go-back-to-public-transport-after-covid) on public transport loadings over the past year (lots of graphs) and asking the question "Mind the gaps: will we go back to public transport after Covid?"

Quote
When lockdown emptied the UK’s trains and buses, their operators’ revenues collapsed. Now home working and cycling could become a permanent threat to their finances

A year ago, with the first coronavirus lockdown looming, passengers were warned to stay away from public transport. Now many are wondering whether that message can ever be reversed.

City centres in particular have been affected by the switch of huge numbers of office staff to working from home. This development threatens to permanently upend the model that has sustained the private rail system, and the coffers of cities that relied on train fare income.

But actually, commuter traffic all in a couple of hours and in one direction was very expensive to provide for as it meant that resource had to be provided that was only needed at those peaks ... furthermore, on many journeys season tickets were so much lower cost than ordinary fares that this income really didn't even approach meeting the cost of the extra provision.  Cities may have relied on those people - perhaps the railways did not??


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Jamsdad on March 21, 2021, 01:00:30 pm
Looking at recent estate agent data for Cornwall there has been a surge of people  relocating to Cornwall. Many, it would appear, are going to home work, and maybe just go to the office once a week. As many are ex- London, there may be a significant surge in once-a-week business travel from Cornwall to London, and quite possibly an increase in sleeper traffic (not that we need that as it was , pre-covid already well subscribed ).


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: eightonedee on March 21, 2021, 03:19:45 pm
Quote
But actually, commuter traffic all in a couple of hours and in one direction was very expensive to provide for as it meant that resource had to be provided that was only needed at those peaks ... furthermore, on many journeys season tickets were so much lower cost than ordinary fares that this income really didn't even approach meeting the cost of the extra provision.  Cities may have relied on those people - perhaps the railways did not??

There's a lot to pick up on there Grahame......

Quote
commuter traffic all in a couple of hours and in one direction

While the peak might cover two hours, commuter traffic is spread over a longer period.

It was also far from all in one direction (even if predominantly) and certainly not all to the same destination. So for example on my (old?) regular beat (Goring to Guildford), you would start getting London bound early risers or those who had to hack over to Docklands before 6-30, and still be getting 9-30 starters who work in Reading close to the station catching trains to work after 9 am. On the North Downs leg of my journey there were two regular companions who started their journeys in Oxford and one in Swindon, and another who regularly did Oxford to Brighton. While the traffic the other way at Goring was much less, along the North Downs (and indeed the Waterloo-Reading line) there was considerable volume both ways, and on the occasions when closure of the North Downs line necessitated a Reading-Basingstoke-Woking-Guildford "zig-zag", the train from Reading to Basingstoke was busy to full, too.

The evening rush hour was if anything more extended. It would start with early finishers (and there has been a growing proportion of employers happy to give staff the flexibility to start and finish early) and "clock watchers" catching the first departures after 5pm onwards. As someone who worked longish hours, I was regularly changing trains at Reading at 8 pm, and they were still busy with commuter traffic.

Quote
very expensive to provide for as it meant that resource had to be provided that was only needed at those peaks ... furthermore, on many journeys season tickets were so much lower cost than ordinary fares that this income really didn't even approach meeting the cost of the extra provision.

A packed train with perhaps 60% on annual seasons (30% discount to full fare at peak rates?) will be filling the operators bank account regularly. An off-peak train 20% full of passengers at off-peak fares, with probably a half using their concessionary railcards still needs staff, fuel etc, etc. I cannot see how the off-peak service can be anything other than subsidised by peak period commuter traffic. And the volume of London-Reading peak travellers must also have helped fund the longer distance trains they got on and off at Reading.

We may be lucky and end up with a more even spread of passengers and overall numbers not declining too much, but will the quid pro quo be shorter off-peak periods or reduced differentials between peak and off-peak fares? Flexibility on working hours is going to be a challenge for employers too. There has been a recognition of the value of working in the office for supervision. training and mentoring and team working. This gets more difficult if the team is not on site at about the same time.

Quote
Cities may have relied on those people - perhaps the railways did not??

But the whole raison d'etre of public transport is to serve places and the people who live and work there!



Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: ellendune on March 21, 2021, 06:20:15 pm
A packed train with perhaps 60% on annual seasons (30% discount to full fare at peak rates?) will be filling the operators bank account regularly.

I suggest you look at the wide disparity here!.  The Season Tickets were always regulated tickets, outside the old Network South East Area the full fare was not! as a result season ticket holders from Swindon are paying something like the super off peak fare!  More like 60% or 70% discount! So when a shoulder of peak train was nearly full of full fare travellers (most days) with a few season ticket holders who was filling the operators bank account regularly?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: ellendune on March 28, 2021, 08:25:57 pm
So Nationwide has consulted its staff and is giving them the option of working from home.  On the basis of the consultation they are closing three of its office buildings in Swindon.

Swindon Advertiser (https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/19185030.nationwide-shut-three-swindon-office-buildings/)

Business Insider (https://www.insider.co.uk/news/nationwide-gives-staff-remote-working-23794526)

Probably not too many commute by rail given where the office is, but if this is a pattern....



Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Timmer on March 28, 2021, 09:40:52 pm
So Nationwide has consulted its staff and is giving them the option of working from home.  On the basis of the consultation they are closing three of its office buildings in Swindon.

Swindon Advertiser (https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/19185030.nationwide-shut-three-swindon-office-buildings/)

Business Insider (https://www.insider.co.uk/news/nationwide-gives-staff-remote-working-23794526)

Probably not too many commute by rail given where the office is, but if this is a pattern....
This will be the first of many I’m sure.

Been working from home for a year now with only occasional visits to the office. Already decided that this is the way ahead for me with a view to making this a permanent move later in the year once things return to the new normal. Some of my colleagues want the same whilst others want to return to the office so it’s not for everyone.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Bmblbzzz on March 29, 2021, 10:43:37 am
We may be lucky and end up with a more even spread of passengers and overall numbers not declining too much, but will the quid pro quo be shorter off-peak periods or reduced differentials between peak and off-peak fares? Flexibility on working hours is going to be a challenge for employers too. There has been a recognition of the value of working in the office for supervision. training and mentoring and team working. This gets more difficult if the team is not on site at about the same time.
Perhaps less peak v off-peak difference will be part of the "simpler fare structure" we are frequently promised?

Cities may have relied on those people - perhaps the railways did not??

But the whole raison d'etre of public transport is to serve places and the people who live and work there!


Agree with this. Transport serves people and the places they go to, not people serving transport. Though it's also true that the existence of good transport links encourages people and businesses to settle in a certain place and thus shapes travel patterns.

Edit: Tweaked to clarify who was quoted - Red Squirrel


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: GBM on March 31, 2021, 11:22:48 am
So Nationwide has consulted its staff and is giving them the option of working from home.  On the basis of the consultation they are closing three of its office buildings in Swindon.

Probably not too many commute by rail given where the office is, but if this is a pattern....

Many financial institutions are trying to shut down high street branches whenever possible.  Banks encouraging customers queuing to go online and producing evidence that proves customers are not going in to branches (they are but results not showing this). Similar to FGW showing in surveys passengers don't want a buffet!


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: ellendune on March 31, 2021, 01:10:02 pm
So Nationwide has consulted its staff and is giving them the option of working from home.  On the basis of the consultation they are closing three of its office buildings in Swindon.

Probably not too many commute by rail given where the office is, but if this is a pattern....

Many financial institutions are trying to shut down high street branches whenever possible.  Banks encouraging customers queuing to go online and producing evidence that proves customers are not going in to branches (they are but results not showing this). Similar to FGW showing in surveys passengers don't want a buffet!

The Nationwide story was not about shutting branches. These are back offices.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on April 07, 2021, 07:17:33 pm
From The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/road-rail-covid-tube-bus-b1828046.html)

Quote
THIS IS THE AGE OF THE CAR: ROAD USE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS TRAVELLERS SHUN TRAINS
Motoring rising fast after stay at home rule lifted, but trains remain a quarter full


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Bmblbzzz on April 07, 2021, 09:12:48 pm
From The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/road-rail-covid-tube-bus-b1828046.html)

Quote
THIS IS THE AGE OF THE CAR: ROAD USE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS TRAVELLERS SHUN TRAINS
Motoring rising fast after stay at home rule lifted, but trains remain a quarter full
Not sure whether it's appropriate or inappropriate that that opens for me with an advert for a well known brand of four-lettered German motor car.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on April 08, 2021, 06:56:18 am
From The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/road-rail-covid-tube-bus-b1828046.html)

Quote
THIS IS THE AGE OF THE CAR: ROAD USE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS TRAVELLERS SHUN TRAINS
Motoring rising fast after stay at home rule lifted, but trains remain a quarter full

Seems to suggest that demand for rail is being squeezed between the huge and sustained rise in remote working, and those who are returning to commuting, choosing to do so by car - I guess that's understandable in the short term given that with the virus still around you are safer alone in a car than on public transport (and you don't have to wear a mask), but it'll be interesting to see if it continues once everyone has been jabbed and public transport is perceived as being "safe" again.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on April 08, 2021, 05:54:49 pm
I expect that ratio will change in favour of rail a little from next week when the retail sector reopens as employees in that sector are more likely to be reliant on public transport.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Sulis John on April 10, 2021, 10:30:13 pm
Although it is certainly worrying that rail numbers seem to be slow in picking up, it is perhaps hardly surprising at this stage. As yet we are still being told to "minimise journeys" and (whether this is true or not) that train travel should be restricted to travel to essential work or other authorised reasons - so we're still being discouraged from making leisure trips and forbidden from making ones that involve staying anywhere overnight. Even if we decide to ignore that, there's little reason to travel much at the moment, especially with the weather offering little temptation to outdoor activity at present. The school-run is back (or will be again after the Easter break) as is, to judge by their car parks, the supermarket trip, but these tend to be car based activities. Meanwhile, the massive drop-off in rush-hour traffic (and, for some, the sudden availability of free spaces in the office car-park) will have removed many of the disincentives to drive for those who are going into work. Once the length of the drive starts to increase again and the chance of being able to park easily and cheaply starts to decrease, things may change. It'll certainly be interesting to see how all the changes to central Bristol traffic routing that have been introduced / completed over the last 12 months cope with a "real" rush hour - even if that is still quite a long way off!


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: CyclingSid on April 11, 2021, 07:37:10 am
Simon Calder's take on the subject
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/rail-car-passenger-travel-uk-b1828794.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/rail-car-passenger-travel-uk-b1828794.html)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on April 11, 2021, 08:16:26 am
... Even if we decide to ignore that, there's little reason to travel much at the moment, especially with the weather offering little temptation to outdoor activity at present. ...

Indeed - with that and the other things you list, we remain very much in the "holding area" at the start of a new adventure and we really don't know what we'll find when we get out of that area.   Preparations, yes; guesses, yes, but no certainty and still much we'll need to find out as we go on along.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on April 11, 2021, 08:52:21 am
The railways have been able to take their customers for granted for a long time and have treated them accordingly, often with little short of contempt.

Now they are going to have to work at it in order to justify the "astronomical sums" as Calder puts it, being spent on them .

It'll be interesting to see the shift this creates, both culturally and in terms of service - will it reflect the needs of the customer more? It will probably need to.........and it will definitely need to in order to get people out of cars.

Yes, the Government has a part to play in terms of incentives/disincentives, but in terms of bailing the railways out in the current circumstances they have played that part pretty well. The railways cannot take the place of the road network, it is silly to pretend otherwise - they complement it, and where practical can certainly take some of the weight off it. Identifying these opportunities and maximising them will be pivotal.

I will be interested to see what the railways themselves do to make themselves more of an attractive and practical option, especially for leisure travellers which is the real opportunity given the huge hole in business revenue created by remote working.

Calder's final point is somewhat overstated - this is one aspect of caring for/saving the environment, but it certainly isn't the only show in town.



Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Bmblbzzz on April 11, 2021, 10:22:08 am
It'll certainly be interesting to see how all the changes to central Bristol traffic routing that have been introduced / completed over the last 12 months cope with a "real" rush hour - even if that is still quite a long way off!
Car usage is almost at 2019 levels already (that's nationally, I'm sure there's local variation but I don't have figures for Bristol specifically). In some places after the first lockdown it reached 125% of the average for that time of year. So it would seem the changes are already coping with what they were designed for; the question might be will they cope with 2030 levels in 2021? Another thing is the nature of the rush hour will have changed; even if comparable numbers of people go back to work, it's likely hours will be more spread out.

The real question though is about the disparity between the usage levels of private and public transport.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: CyclingSid on April 12, 2021, 06:49:20 am
Transport use up to the 4th April
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/976208/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/976208/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on April 12, 2021, 11:05:23 am
Do the cycling figures vary so wildly from day to day because they aren't very accurate figures, or do they correlate to good and bad weather days?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Bmblbzzz on April 12, 2021, 01:21:33 pm
I think – definitely open to correction – that whereas there is at least a degree of automation in counting motor vehicles, cycle traffic is counted by people with clipboards at the side of the road, so liable to distraction, boredom, bad weather, vagaries of siting, in addition to the actual numbers fluctuating. And of course the numbers are smaller (in most places) so more liable to variations.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: CyclingSid on April 12, 2021, 04:28:00 pm
In places like London and Manchester with separate cycling infrastructure there are separate automatic cycle counters.
From the methodology document
Quote
sources of cycling use data including automatic cycling counters and camera-based estimates
Clip boards are probably too expensive nowadays.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on April 25, 2021, 07:40:18 pm
Number of cars in the Wokingham Station car parks (capacity 531), seen at some time during 10-4.

W/S      Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri    Notes
21/9 29 42~ 42~ 40 35 "stay at home" advice from Thursday
28/9 23 40 40 53~  -
  5/10 23  - 43 45 37
12/10 3129 39 46 41
19/10 37 29  - 36 26
26/10 17 22 30 37 45 Half term
  2/11 23 39 27 19 18 "Lockdown 2" from Thursday
  9/11 17 18 19 27 15
16/11 27 26 28 27 21
23/11 15 16 15 17 19
30/11 19 19 18  - 23
7/12 19 29 41 43 21
14/12 26 24 25 - 27
21/12 17 - 7 3 - didn't look Xmas week
4/1/21 14 8 7 - - "Lockdown 3" from Tuesday
11/1 7 8 8 - -
18/1 11 11 - 10 15
25/1 12 14 16 12 12
  1/2 13 14 14 19 12
8/2 - - - - - too cold all week!
15/2 10 16 - 16 12
22/2 15 11 12 16 9
1/3 1413* 9*14* 9* *not counting Tighe's vans, but maybe a few workers' cars
8/317*21*21*17*19*   back-to-school week
15/315*12* 9*11* 18
22/3 15~ 15 15 15 13 not counting "waiters" for schoolkids
29/3 16 16 16 12 6* first notch of relaxation
5/4 * 12 - 15 20 * Easter
12/4 18 32 32 30 21
19/4 21 28 31 32 25 schools back

Still no great rush - or even a little one - back to the daily commute.
~ approx.
updated 25/4


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on April 26, 2021, 11:17:02 am

Still no great rush - or even a little one - back to the daily commute.


Indeed ... will it ever come?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: didcotdean on April 26, 2021, 03:05:37 pm
The relatively new 'cycle hub' at Didcot Parkway which has space for 600 bikes was 99% empty when I looked in it mid-morning. There were some more in the older stands closer to the station: I didn't count those but they were far from full as well.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on July 12, 2021, 11:37:39 pm
Another update, following a few weeks with less complete data.

Number of cars in the Wokingham Station car parks, capacity 531 (SWR) or 424 (Ringo), seen at some time during 10 am-4 pm.

W/S      Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri    Notes
21/9 29 42~ 42~ 40 35 "stay at home" advice from Thursday
28/9 23 40 40 53~  -
  5/10 23  - 43 45 37
12/10 3129 39 46 41
19/10 37 29  - 36 26
26/10 17 22 30 37 45 Half term
  2/11 23 39 27 19 18 "Lockdown 2" from Thursday
  9/11 17 18 19 27 15
16/11 27 26 28 27 21
23/11 15 16 15 17 19
30/11 19 19 18  - 23
7/12 19 29 41 43 21
14/12 26 24 25 - 27
21/12 17 - 7 3 - didn't look Xmas week
4/1/21 14 8 7 - - "Lockdown 3" from Tuesday
11/1 7 8 8 - -
18/1 11 11 - 10 15
25/1 12 14 16 12 12
  1/2 13 14 14 19 12
8/2 - - - - - too cold all week!
15/2 10 16 - 16 12
22/2 15 11 12 16 9
1/3 1413* 9*14* 9* *not counting Tighe's vans, but maybe a few workers' cars
8/317*21*21*17*19*   back-to-school week
15/315*12* 9*11* 18
22/3 15~ 15 15 15 13 not counting "waiters" for schoolkids
29/3 16 16 16 12 6* first notch of relaxation
5/4 * 12 - 15 20 * Easter
12/4 18 32 32 30 21
19/4 21 28 31 32 25 schools back
26/4 31 42 50 29 27
3/5 -* 28 37 32 28 *Mayday BH; some use visibly for part days now
10/5 37 30 - 28 28 Sat 28
17/5 30 42 64 48 39 "step 3 easements" from Monday
24/5 39 38 41 - 49~ Sat 58, Sun 38
31/5 27* 37 42 49 37 * BH
7/6 - - - - -
14/6 42 56 62 57 - Sat 40. Ascot week (test event)
21/6 - - 62 61 46 Sat 74
28/6 - 47 64 69~ 36 Sat 42
5/7 - - 60 75 49 Sat 71
~ approx.
updated 12/7/21

There was just a little rush from the step 3 relaxation in May, but note that "work from home if possible" remains the official "rule" (in effect guidance). Part of the increased usage seems to be down to people realising that this car park is not expensive at weekends.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Sixty3Closure on July 13, 2021, 10:24:13 am
My company has put the return to the office back to September. Couple of reasons for this including the need to return the building and facilities back to normal, still working on what hybrid/flexible working means for a lot of teams and also the general vagueness of the government advice. A lot of staff still don't feel comfortable on public transport.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: jamestheredengine on July 13, 2021, 01:08:59 pm
My company has put the return to the office back to September. Couple of reasons for this including the need to return the building and facilities back to normal, still working on what hybrid/flexible working means for a lot of teams and also the general vagueness of the government advice. A lot of staff still don't feel comfortable on public transport.
Yours seems to be moving at lightning speed. Mine has been trying to do a phased return from September, but basically working on the assumption that 50% of work will continue to be done from home. The scale of the task in this size of organisation means that it's been made pretty clear that the September phase doesn't mean us, and January 2022 might be a more realistic time to be thinking about the odd day in the office.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 13, 2021, 04:43:51 pm
Just been put back to October in my case, however with an expectation that those who previously did a 5 day week in the office will do no more than 2 going forward.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on August 16, 2021, 03:01:44 pm
The rail minister, Chris Heaton-Harris, has been talking to PA news, reported in The Times this morning. This is a slightly longer version, from without walls, in the Express & Star (https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2021/08/16/demand-for-trains-will-fully-recover-from-pandemic--minister/):
Quote
Demand for train travel will return to pre-pandemic levels despite currently lagging behind car use, a minister has insisted.

Department for Transport (DfT) figures show the number of journeys being made by train in Britain is approximately 57% of what it was before the coronavirus crisis, while car use has fully recovered.

Asked if train passenger numbers will return to normal, rail minister Chris Heaton-Harris replied: “I think we will but I don’t think there’ll be the numbers at the same times of day that there used to be.”
...
Mr Heaton-Harris added that demonstrating the attractiveness of train travel is an important factor in encouraging people who have switched to home working to return to offices.

“Rail needs to do what people expect it to do,” he said...


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: eightonedee on August 16, 2021, 04:28:20 pm
I am surprised it is that high.

On Friday last week I had my first peak morning rail journey since March 2020, a trip from Goring to Reading at 08-06 for a hospital appointment. There were only 11 cars in each of Goring, Pangbourne and Tilehurst station car parks, and about that number of passengers joined the train at each station, with just 7 in my coach by the time it arrived in Reading. All this in a 12 car train.

There were more on the return journey - at least by the time I got back to Goring at 11-30, as the first train only got as far as  Tilehurst before it failed, meaning a wit for the next (now one hour later) train there  >:(   


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on August 19, 2021, 08:17:29 pm
Car use back to pre lockdown levels.

Rail/Bus use at around 60%

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58274806.amp


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on August 20, 2021, 11:46:14 am
Not a bad effort from the BBC…only 3 days behind Stuving!  ;)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on August 27, 2021, 05:41:26 pm
I read this in today's Metro, but the report I found is from th Guardian:
Quote
Bank holiday weekend travel warning as fine weather forecast for UK

Holidaymakers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland look to take advantage of late summer sun
Ticket sales for trains to seaside destinations over the bank holiday weekend have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, according to the industry body the Rail Delivery Group (RDG). Demand is more than double compared with last year’s August bank holiday, and up 17% on the same weekend in 2019.

Travellers are keen to take advantage of warm, dry and sunny weather across most of the UK this weekend, with the highest temperatures and most sunshine in the west, according to Met Office predictions.
...
The consultancy WPI Economics said trains were especially popular among young people, with 1.03m journeys per week made using the 16-25 railcard, an increase of 49,000 since the beginning of June.

WPI estimated that passengers travelling to seaside destinations for leisure spend on average £116 per trip. This includes £40 on food and drink, £31 on accommodation, £23 on shopping, £13 on other travel and £10 on entertainment and culture.

However, commuting and business trips by rail are still well below pre-coronavirus levels, with the result that rail industry revenue is at 59% of what it was at this point in 2019.

Most of the article is about roads. One thing not being said is that people who are working (or "working") at home today may be able to spread their travel times across more of the day than used to be the case. Is there any evidence of that?

Talking about the seaside, there was a recent report about Frinton-on-Sea quoting the deputy mayor of Walton and Frinton as saying "Frinton is not a seaside resort...".


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: froome on August 27, 2021, 06:20:05 pm
Frinton isn't a seaside resort. It is a retirement home next to the coast.  :o


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: eightonedee on August 27, 2021, 06:41:43 pm
Quote
Frinton isn't a seaside resort. It is a retirement home next to the coast

Giving rise to the famous graffiti applied to a "Harwich for the Continent" poster, namely

"and Frinton for the incontinent" ;D


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: johnneyw on August 27, 2021, 10:57:10 pm
Quote
Frinton isn't a seaside resort. It is a retirement home next to the coast

Giving rise to the famous graffiti applied to a "Harwich for the Continent" poster, namely

"and Frinton for the incontinent" ;D

During my very early years living on the edge of London, an older colleague of my mother retired with her husband to Frinton-on-Sea.  I recall visiting once and I don't remember it giving me the impression of somewhere to go for a day by the sea like Southend on Sea did....this was in the 1960s I should add.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: eightonedee on September 08, 2021, 10:22:05 pm
I did my first Goring to Guildford journey since March 2020 - not a commute, but to attend a social event at work in the early evening (4pm to 6pm).

The station car parks at Goring and Pangbourne are definitely fuller - 50% plus, and the return journey at about the time I used to commute back was not as busy on the first (Guildford-Reading) leg, but neither was it deserted. The Reading - Goring leg was almost back to passenger levels of old.

I think my earlier posting about Friday travel may not have been a good guide, as Friday seems to be a day that many under new (or evolving) work patterns are not attending offices. My firm is moving towards some days when everyone (or all members of a team) will be expected to attend in the absence of booked holiday or genuine work related appointment out of the office. It looks like Tuesdays and Thursdays for most.

It will be interesting to see if a consistent pattern emerges across the commuting classes with some days of the
week being regularly much busier than others - a challenge for those setting timetables and allocating resources perhaps?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on September 08, 2021, 10:56:38 pm
It will be interesting to see if a consistent pattern emerges across the commuting classes with some days of the week being regularly much busier than others - a challenge for those setting timetables and allocating resources perhaps?

Well, what pattern can you see in the last few weeks' numbers added in the latest upadate?

Number of cars in the Wokingham Station car parks, capacity 531 (SWR) or 424 (Ringo), seen at some time during 10 am-5 pm (most often 14:30-16:30).

W/S      Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri    Notes
21/9 29 42~ 42~ 40 35 "stay at home" advice from Thursday
28/9 23 40 40 53~  -
  5/10 23  - 43 45 37
12/10 3129 39 46 41
19/10 37 29  - 36 26
26/10 17 22 30 37 45 Half term
  2/11 23 39 27 19 18 "Lockdown 2" from Thursday
  9/11 17 18 19 27 15
16/11 27 26 28 27 21
23/11 15 16 15 17 19
30/11 19 19 18  - 23
7/12 19 29 41 43 21
14/12 26 24 25 - 27
21/12 17 - 7 3 - didn't look Xmas week
4/1/21 14 8 7 - - "Lockdown 3" from Tuesday
11/1 7 8 8 - -
18/1 11 11 - 10 15
25/1 12 14 16 12 12
  1/2 13 14 14 19 12
8/2 - - - - - too cold all week!
15/2 10 16 - 16 12
22/2 15 11 12 16 9
1/3 1413* 9*14* 9* *not counting Tighe's vans, but maybe a few workers' cars
8/317*21*21*17*19*   back-to-school week
15/315*12* 9*11* 18
22/3 15~ 15 15 15 13 not counting "waiters" for schoolkids
29/3 16 16 16 12 6* first notch of relaxation
5/4 * 12 - 15 20 * Easter
12/4 18 32 32 30 21
19/4 21 28 31 32 25 schools back
26/4 31 42 50 29 27
3/5 -* 28 37 32 28 *Mayday BH; some use visibly for part days now
10/5 37 30 - 28 28 Sat 28
17/5 30 42 64 48 39 "step 3 easements" from Monday
24/5 39 38 41 - 49~ Sat 58, Sun 38
31/5 27* 37 42 49 37 * BH
7/6 - - - - -
14/6 42 56 62 57 - Sat 40. Ascot week (test event)
21/6 - - 62 61 46 Sat 74
28/6 - 47 64 69~ 36 Sat 42
5/7 - - 60 75 49 Sat 71
12/7 50 64 74 62 31 32
19/7 51* 72 79 57 46 *"Freedom day!"
26/7 38 57 60 63 -
2/8 45 52 69 63 50
9/8 56 - 88 87 59
16/8 54 70 86 66 54
23/8 65 84 63 82 92 Sat 34
30/8 34* 47 107 - 72 Sat 85 *Bank holiday Monday

~ approx.
updated 8/9/21

The slow drift back to going to work continues, but it is very slow - remember there are over 500 spaces!

Next update is here (http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=23908.msg312939#msg312939), and is from July 2021 only.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Mark A on September 08, 2021, 11:04:45 pm
Up to London on the 8:13 Bath - Chippenham - Paddington yesterday. Fair few alighting at Bath and just a few on. Two in 1st up to London, and standard class, after Chippenham, perhaps 1/5 full (a 5 car set).

Back on the 16:20 from Waterloo: very busy from Waterloo. Later, on the Bristol portion from Salisbury, nine standard class passengers and two in first class in one of the three carriages, the others were not counted.

Northern line southbound from Highgate to Bank / DLR full and standing during this evening's peak. About 70% masked.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Marlburian on September 09, 2021, 05:49:05 pm
The "Business" section in today's Daily Telegraph has a photo captioned "Back in the old routine" showing packed platforms at Clapham Junction - "a hive of activity".

I haven't liked the stance on Covid adopted by the Telegraphand cynically wondered whether it was a pre-Covid photo. Perhaps 80 commuters packed together: OK, some had their backs to the camera, but I couldn't see any masks. A friend sporting brand new bifocals spotted one.

I retain a cautious approach (but not completely risk-free), and I did wince.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Sixty3Closure on September 09, 2021, 10:32:06 pm
We're starting our phased return of teams to offices. It's still masks in buildings and social distancing which has been raised by some staff in stark contrast to their being in packed trains with no rules.

A significant number have raised concerns about having to return at this point because of travel. Outside of London I suspect more people will drive if its an option but it doesn't really work in central London.

We've also had HSE inspections about Covid safety which I didn't really understand considering the Government's laisse faire approach elsewhere.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: MVR S&T on September 09, 2021, 11:51:52 pm
I am surprised that some firms still don't get it, case rates are still very high, the vaccine is wearing off, flu season is near, we need to embrace the new normal, my knee is playing up, will I have to wait 15 years for a replacement, just because some middle managers wanted their team back to justify their jobs....


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on September 10, 2021, 06:14:13 am
I am surprised that some firms still don't get it, case rates are still very high, the vaccine is wearing off, flu season is near, we need to embrace the new normal, my knee is playing up, will I have to wait 15 years for a replacement, just because some middle managers wanted their team back to justify their jobs....

I would query elements of that ...

I would suggest that it's top rather than middle managers for the most part who want their teams back in the office; middle managers (and it depends on the definition) probably don't have the authority for such a far-reaching decision.

I would also suggest that for training and bringing on a new generation of staff to do a "coalface" job, the office environment is a very great help (to put it mildly).  Putting it another way, companies have been able to carry on with home working, and have been able to do so for a year or two, but there's a need to keep a fresh flow of new blood coming in to teams and the home work approach in some roles stunts that growth - there is a need to get more back to  meeting in real life and sitting alongside your peers.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on September 10, 2021, 06:31:37 am
From the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58502589)

Quote
Quote
Rail industry urges workers not to spurn the train

Unless workers start taking the train again, there could be long-term adverse effects on city centres and High Streets, the rail industry has warned.

Train commuting is still just 33% of its pre-Covid rate, while car journeys have reached pre-pandemic levels, said the Rail Delivery Group (RDG).

The article goes on to talk about the various side-effects of reduced (rail) commuting - pollution and traffic jams if people transfer to the roads, and the spending by train passengers on "food and drink, shopping, entertainment and culture".   It suggests

Quote
The RDG said rail journeys to and from work were expected to increase during September, but could take years to return to numbers seen in 2019.
 
...

Andy Bagnall, director general of the Rail Delivery Group, said that for many commuters, the future would undoubtedly involve a mix of home and office working.

"Commuting" is a much overused word and I'm unclear what was measured in their 33% ... does it mean people who travel from home to a single place of work multiple times per week? Does it mean all rail travellers - considering that I would "commute" to Weymouth for the day a a weekend if I risked all 4 trains I needed to take actually running?  And on that latter, is one of the keys to railway passenger numbers recovering going to be the rail industry reaching  or getting close to previous targets and achievements in terms of reliability, frequency and capacity?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: broadgage on September 10, 2021, 06:54:23 am
I suspect that a lot of potential rail passengers in GWR land still think that the message is "avoid train travel" whether due to covid, cracks or staff shortage.

And of those who DID try the train again, some may have decided that driving is the better option, due to the levels of cancellations and short formations.

If we are serious about reducing local air pollution, traffic congestion, and global warming, then "the railway" in general and the GWR bit in particular really need to up their game.

No amount of clever (or silly?) advertising compensates for trains that don't turn up or are overcrowded.

"Five took the train, and vowed never again"


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on September 10, 2021, 08:40:03 am
Up to London on the 8:13 Bath - Chippenham - Paddington yesterday. Fair few alighting at Bath and just a few on. Two in 1st up to London, and standard class, after Chippenham, perhaps 1/5 full (a 5 car set).

Back on the 16:20 from Waterloo: very busy from Waterloo. Later, on the Bristol portion from Salisbury, nine standard class passengers and two in first class in one of the three carriages, the others were not counted.

Northern line southbound from Highgate to Bank / DLR full and standing during this evening's peak. About 70% masked.

Plymouth to Taplow (via Reading) on the 1514 yesterday - very quiet...........left Plymouth on time but about 25 mins late into Reading, similarly quiet TfL connection to Taplow.

Masks about 50% from what I could see

One more thing - don't try the avocado wrap - I was offered that or the all day breakfast sandwich - with several weeks of excess behind me I chose the former - never again, it was pretty dreadful although no doubt virtuous!


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Sixty3Closure on September 10, 2021, 06:13:20 pm
I am surprised that some firms still don't get it, case rates are still very high, the vaccine is wearing off, flu season is near, we need to embrace the new normal, my knee is playing up, will I have to wait 15 years for a replacement, just because some middle managers wanted their team back to justify their jobs....

I wouldn't underestimate the number of younger staff who are desperate to come back into the office as well. Apart from the lack of spare rooms to work in they want to build up their network in the organisation and that's much harder to do over Zoom. I've been working with some new joiners who haven't yet met anyone in the organisation face to face and that must be incredibly tough when all of your assumptions and relationships are based on instant messaging and video conferencing in meetings.

Also in my case we've been treading water in terms of what projects we can deliver and not sure it can go on indefinitely.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on September 11, 2021, 08:47:50 am
Interesting article highlighting that train commuting is languishing at 33% of pre COVID rates with car journeys back to normal, and the longer term consequences;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58502589


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on September 11, 2021, 09:35:19 am
Interesting article highlighting that train commuting is languishing at 33% of pre COVID rates with car journeys back to normal, and the longer term consequences;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58502589

That's the same article Graham posted about yesterday. He asked about its use of terms like "commuting", and the source of all the numbers is not really clear. The BBC's source is the release of a "report" - more of a long campaigning flyer, really - from RDG called (sub-snappily)" More than a journey: The railway’s value to a fair, clean recovery for communities across Britain (https://www.raildeliverygroup.com/about-us/publications/12841-more-than-a-journey/file.html)". Their press release and description (https://media.raildeliverygroup.com/news/new-research-shows-potentially-dire-impact-on-city-centres-as-new-commuting-habits-begin-to-form) describe the underlying research as:
Quote
WPI Economics were commissioned to carry out a study of the economic, social and environmental benefits of rail by the Rail Delivery Group. This included an online survey of a nationally representative sample of 2,241 residents of Great Britain between 16th and 22nd June 2021 carried out by Savanta ComRes. Alongside this they carried out an online survey of 103 decision-makers in retail and hospitality businesses across the country between 23rd June and 5th July about the value of the rail network to their business.
In addition they cite the Official statistics on rail passenger numbers compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The results of the WPI work are internal, not published, but in any case that was a survey of  public attitudes plus some guesswork. The RDG announcement is the only source of the 33% figure:
Quote
Latest figures from the rail industry show that train commuting is at just a third (33%) of pre-pandemic levels. This is expected to increase this month but could take years to return to numbers seen in 2019.

However, car journeys are recovering much more quickly. Government data shows that the number of car journeys has almost reached pre-pandemic levels at around 96% but the overall number of people taking train trips is still lagging behind at around 60%.

So presumably RDG have used passenger numbers or ticket sales for routes and times labelled as "commuter". One of the things the RDG "report" goes on about is the impact of 20% of rail commuters switching to road (car) travel. But what level of car commuting do they add that transfer onto? 100% of pre-covid? Less? More? I can't see that stated, implying they used 100%. I'm not convinced that means a lot.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on September 11, 2021, 09:51:30 am
Apologies - didn't realise it had already been shared.

I think the meaning of the term "commuting" is quite well understood, but if it helps, the dictionary suggests;

"travel some distance between one's home and place of work on a regular basis".

I suspect that's the context here?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: broadgage on September 11, 2021, 04:09:13 pm
Apologies - didn't realise it had already been shared.

I think the meaning of the term "commuting" is quite well understood, but if it helps, the dictionary suggests;

"travel some distance between one's home and place of work on a regular basis".

I suspect that's the context here?

I believe that you are correct, however reporters seem to misuse the word commuters to mean almost any rail passengers. And often excluding driving or taking the bus which are also popular forms of commuting.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on September 16, 2021, 05:46:40 pm
Nice to see Paddington really starting to get its peak time buzz back now.  Far more people travelling during the peaks than I was expecting.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Timmer on September 16, 2021, 06:40:02 pm
Nice to see Paddington really starting to get its peak time buzz back now.  Far more people travelling during the peaks than I was expecting.
Was passing through there an hour ago and my wife said something along those lines. Might have walked straight passed you  ;)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on September 18, 2021, 06:28:52 pm
Coming into Bristol at lunch time today

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/cro20210918_1.jpg)

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/cro20210918_2.jpg)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Marlburian on September 18, 2021, 08:34:36 pm
I remain more reclusive than most and find those photos are a bit scary. Just six (?) masks being worn in the lower one?

(This morning I popped into Wickes as soon as they opened at 0700. Cavernous store, only five other people there. I wasn't going to bother with my mask, but the youngish guy in front was wearing one, so I went back to my car to put mine on. Twenty-five minutes later at the small corner Coop I didn't hesitate to wear one.)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on September 18, 2021, 08:51:51 pm
Virtually no masks, and absolutely no social distancing. Packed conditions possibly due to numerous crew shortage related cancellations today but in any case deeply worrying.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on September 18, 2021, 09:12:25 pm
Virtually no masks, and absolutely no social distancing. Packed conditions possibly due to numerous crew shortage related cancellations today but in any case deeply worrying.

It looks worse because of the compression of zoom.   The train I had arrive on from Trowbridge is in the other picture; the SWR train that would "normally" have been ahead of it (from Waterloo) didn't run today.  Masks on the train - around 50% - I suspect many people took them off when the got off the train, not then thinking of the subway as an enclosed area.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Timmer on September 18, 2021, 09:57:57 pm
Paddington was very busy this evening looking as it did pre Covid.

Had the privilege, if you can call it that, of having Plymouth Argyle supporters on our train home this evening, so everything really did feel back to normal.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Red Squirrel on September 20, 2021, 02:32:28 pm
Virtually no masks, and absolutely no social distancing...

Maybe they are being led by example? Here is a very recent picture of our government in action:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/73bf5b5207427caa8462f1dc252fba13c7f37526/0_101_3000_1800/master/3000.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=14e6883426f4d753eb588894e7687ce0)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: CyclingSid on September 21, 2021, 06:48:14 am
Quote
Maybe they are being led by example?
No more likely that they will be setting an example by use public transport, to increase the public's confidence in it. There again the chance of meeting Boris or Priti Patel would probably put me off for life.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on September 21, 2021, 07:18:57 am
Quote
Maybe they are being led by example?
No more likely that they will be setting an example by use public transport, to increase the public's confidence in it. There again the chance of meeting Boris or Priti Patel would probably put me off for life.

Now now, be fair, it hasn't always been like that!  :D


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on September 21, 2021, 04:46:55 pm
Virtually no masks, and absolutely no social distancing. Packed conditions possibly due to numerous crew shortage related cancellations today but in any case deeply worrying.

From the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58641989)

Quote
Only 20% of rail passengers are still wearing masks at train stations now that it is no longer compulsory, according to Network Rail.

That compares with 80% before restrictions were lifted on 19 July.

Not surprised ... however it went in the first few days after restrictions were lifted, people were going to get bored and a bit complacent one there was no longer a legal requirement.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on September 21, 2021, 06:36:24 pm
The more important figure is the number wearing them on trains rather than at stations.  Do we know what that is?  There’s no doubting it has dropped since rules were relaxed.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: PhilWakely on September 22, 2021, 07:18:13 am
I spent a mad day yesterday (21/09/2021) chasing that over-hyped, yet serious cash-cow for the NRM (aka the Flying Scotsman) on its tour to Salisbury and Southampton - travelling up from Pinhoe on the first Up train of the day (05:19) and returning back from Salisbury at 17:54. Visiting such places as Basingstoke, Hook, Fleet, Winchfield, Salisbury, Romsey and Eastleigh.

What struck me was that 'local' commuting (into Salisbury, Basingstoke and Southampton) appeared to be pretty much back to normal levels, whilst London-bound folk were few and far between. The Romsey circle train (16:20 from Eastleigh to Salisbury via Redbridge - a 2-car 158) was full and standing. Even that first Up train from Pinhoe (a 3-car 159) had pretty much every seat occupied between Gillingham and Salisbury (SAL arrival at 07:10) and between Grateley and Basingstoke (BSK arrival at 07:58). 

What scared me though was that very few folk bothered with face masks - I counted just three in my carriage on that Romsey circle train.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on September 23, 2021, 05:55:24 am
The more important figure is the number wearing them on trains rather than at stations.  Do we know what that is?  There’s no doubting it has dropped since rules were relaxed.

According to Network Rail yesterday (article in the Telegraph), the figure is around 20%.

Certainly seemed about right on a trip I took yesterday, although much higher on the Underground from what I observed.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/22/20pc-people-wearing-masks-public-transport-since-july-19/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1632309919


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: froome on September 23, 2021, 06:47:23 am
From my recent travels, my impression is rates of mask wearing on trains differs greatly by region. Here, on trains I've been on around Bath, I would say the majority of passengers are still wearing masks, maybe 60-70%. On journeys I've been making down through Hampshire to Sussex over the last couple of months, mask wearing right through the summer there was much lower, just a minority on every train I was on.

Recently we've had a week in Wales, where mask wearing is still supposed to be mandatory on trains, and mask wearing rates on those trains appeared to be lower than on the trains around here. I noted on one train I was on, travelling from Crewe to Bangor, that when it crossed the border an announcement was made to the effect that as we are now in Wales, wearing a mask is mandatory. Not a single one of the majority of the passengers I saw who were maskless put one on, and rates remained low throughout the journey.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on September 28, 2021, 07:34:57 pm
A discussion at last night's Town Council about returning passengers - or a lack of them, and the need for interim cafe funding - sent me scurrying down to the station. I'm very relieved that the trains were busy, even before the cafe opened and there was a chance to - one again - take pictures of a busy "rush hour" pickup - http://grahamellis.uk/blog272.html

I am noticing some differences - passenger numbers in the peak are not far off what they were before (they may even be better), but the off peak train was a bit sad.  Perhaps because it's a miserable, wet day during term time.  And the car park, formerly with perhaps 15 to 20 cars parked 2 - 3 once the cafe was open; staff car.  Good occupancy of the cycle rack on the platform, and plenty of cycles for hire at the Cafe; there's good potential there - I was doubtful but chatting with the cycle hire folks at a wayside station in Somerset a couple of weeks ago, I understand they had hire out over a dozen just that day.  Which is probably twice the entire stock at Melksham!


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: eXPassenger on September 29, 2021, 09:58:57 am
Quote
I was doubtful but chatting with the cycle hire folks at a wayside station in Somerset a couple of weeks ago, I understand they had hire out over a dozen just that day.  Which is probably twice the entire stock at Melksham!

If that was Yatton they have the advantage of offering a practically road free route to Cheddar on the Strawberry Line.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on September 29, 2021, 10:22:12 am
Quote
I was doubtful but chatting with the cycle hire folks at a wayside station in Somerset a couple of weeks ago, I understand they had hire out over a dozen just that day.  Which is probably twice the entire stock at Melksham!

If that was Yatton they have the advantage of offering a practically road free route to Cheddar on the Strawberry Line.

Yes, it was. Yes, they have.  Melksham is not entirely free of good cycle routes, of course - but there's a story of an opportunities there ... best taken up, perhaps, once the days are getting longer again.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on September 29, 2021, 10:32:13 am
A shame the viability of the cafe is being questioned.  It couldn’t have opened with worse timing really, but hopefully it’ll survive the winter and then a true idea of how viable it is as a business will become clearer next year.

Many coffee outlets at stations are still to open, but of course furlough payments are still apply until tomorrow.  It’ll be interesting to see home many more open from next week. 

I travelled around London extensively yesterday and the return of passengers continues at a rate that surprises me - quite a few peak hour trains out of Waterloo back to full and standing for example.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on September 29, 2021, 11:48:52 am
A shame the viability of the cafe is being questioned. ...

I don't think it was really - rather, a new council looking at all the applications for significant funding with appropriate due diligence in the spending of tax payer's money.  Some of the requests looked at were answered within the room; for others (such as this one) data supplied didn't make it clear to the councillor who's friends found it closed, and others, what the plans are to (re)open it at times of peak rail passenger demand.   

We need to bare in mind that almost all councillors use private cars to get around for the most part, and what's second nature to those of us involved in this sort of stuff for years - such as providing bus shelters on the side of the road where people wait for the bus, not across the road where they get off - is only obvious and noted once it's pointed out.  Similarly, that commuters use the station cafe while waiting for their train, and not in the middle of the day when they're at work, nor in passing in the evening when they get back off the returning train.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on October 01, 2021, 06:56:23 am
A further update - I am assured that the Cafe is now open from 07:30 every morning, Monday to Saturday - so that's in time for the busiest train of the day at 07:53; better that 08:30, not quite 07:00 which would also let it cover the second busiest train of the day at 07:20, but a step in the right direction.  Clearly a change from Tuesday morning when I took my pictures that accompany the blog article.

Web site still says "WE ARE OPEN MONDAY, TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 8.30 AM – 4.30 PM. WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY 7.30 AM – 4.30 PM. SUNDAY – CLOSED" but I understand that there are staff sickness issues effecting the web presence, and in any case the most important thing is that the facility is open when people are about.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on October 05, 2021, 04:39:20 pm
Twyford car park looking over 90% full and I counted over 100 cars at Worcestershire Parkway the other week.  How’s Wokingham looking, Stuving?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Red Squirrel on October 05, 2021, 05:03:54 pm
Bristol Temple Meads was pretty busy on Sunday...


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on October 10, 2021, 01:20:42 pm
Twyford car park looking over 90% full and I counted over 100 cars at Worcestershire Parkway the other week.  How’s Wokingham looking, Stuving?

Clearly Wokinghamites are not the new Stakhanovites. Here's a shortened set of parked car counts, from a little before "freedom day" (edited from the last post (http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=23908.msg311238#msg311238)).

Number of cars in the Wokingham Station car parks, capacity 531 (SWR) or 424 (Ringo), seen at some time during 10 am-5 pm (most often 14:30-16:30).

W/S      Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri    Notes
5/7 - - 60 75 49 Sat 71
12/7 50 64 74 62 31 32
19/7 51* 72 79 57 46 *"Freedom day!"
26/7 38 57 60 63 -
2/8 45 52 69 63 50
9/8 56 - 88 87 59
16/8 54 70 86 66 54
23/8 65 84 63 82 92 Sat 34
30/8 34* 47 107 - 72 Sat 85 *Bank holiday Monday
6/9 72 65 92 60 60 Sat 93
13/9 87 116 110 107 -
20/9 76 118 128 130 60 Sat 83
27/9 93 114 135 132 86
4/10 72 121* 139 140 82 Sat 122 *Now some upstairs

~ approx.
updated 8/9/21

Again, the slow drift back to going to work continues, but it is very slow - remember there are over 500 spaces (but I don't know how much of the expanded capacity was being used pre-Covid)!

There are some technical issues with the count being over 100, like cars being parked upstairs where I can't see them without a detour (more common now it's not so hot). Obviously it gets tedious too, though before that there's an accuracy issue in that I may lose track of the count partway through.







Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Marlburian on October 11, 2021, 02:33:05 pm
This morning at 0830 there were 19 vehicles in Tilehurst Station car park, with its capacity of 114. But then it is Monday, and it seems that a TWAT pattern has now been established. The refreshments van was quite busy. No Metros.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on October 11, 2021, 02:36:58 pm
Good acronym!  ;)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TonyN on October 11, 2021, 08:47:07 pm
At Pershore today the car park was full. So it looks like the longer distance trips are back to normal but regular comuting is still well down on Mondays.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Electric train on October 12, 2021, 08:24:08 am
Travelled past Didcot and the car park seemed to be nothing but a https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ2oXzrnti4 (Ghost Town)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on October 12, 2021, 09:35:12 am
Travelled past Didcot and the car park seemed to be nothing but a https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ2oXzrnti4 (Ghost Town)

Very patchy ... at Keynsham yesterday (during the day) the car park was quite busy, but passing over the bridge by Melksham Station the car park looked empty. To complete the story, I did not observe the parking at Bath Spa, and I don't think that there IS parking at Oldfield Park.

Loss of car parking numbers does not necessarily correlate with loss of passenger numbers.  Personal observation at Melksham, where only between 10% and 20% of passengers pre-covid drove themselves to the station, suggests that the walkers / cyclists have come back close to original levels, whereas people in their cars are, perhaps, driving to other stations with a better train service or driving all the way to their final destination.  Perhaps that's mirrored by the Didcot reports?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Timmer on October 12, 2021, 09:46:32 am
Correct, no car park at Oldfield Park.

Be harder to judge take up of parking at Bath Spa as a great part of the station parking is part of the Southgate Shopping centre car park on level 3


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on October 12, 2021, 10:29:50 am
With regard to Didcot, it was massively expanded just before the pandemic struck.  No doubt it will never get close to being full now - and the money spent increasing capacity largely wasted - but it doesn’t mean that lots more cars weren’t in there.  Especially on the floor that has level access to the over bridge leading to the station.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Red Squirrel on October 12, 2021, 10:46:50 am
It hadn't occurred to me that there was a car park at Bath Spa station... I wonder who on earth would drive there to catch a train?

There doesn't appear to be a shortage of punters on the platforms; this was how it looked on Sunday afternoon...

(https://fosbr.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/bth_20211012.jpg)



Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: rogerw on October 12, 2021, 02:13:39 pm
The car parks at Chippenham lokked fairly full when I passed last Friday lunchtime


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: didcotdean on October 12, 2021, 09:43:38 pm
The multi storey car park at Didcot was sized taking into account that the two non-railway surface car parks in Station Road would be built on at some time in the short to medium term. Much of the area of one of these is down to be the location of the new HQ of South Oxfordshire DC (+ Vale of the White Horse).

Usage of the surface car park that I pass by often has been slowly creeping up but is still only about a third full. Not looked into the large bike facility recently.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Wizard on October 15, 2021, 06:49:42 am
I noticed Maidenhead car park looked to be completely full on Tuesday morning, about 08.15.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Bob_Blakey on October 15, 2021, 09:57:34 am
A DIG>EXC>DIG shopping / cinema trip yesterday; the 0942 inbound service was very busy - and picked up 20 pax at DIG - and the 1519 return only slightly less so. Very encouraging.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on December 18, 2021, 06:14:20 pm
We've seen how keen Wokinghamites are to not go to work, so the response to the "as you were" order this week (really starting during last week) is no surprise.

Number of cars in the Wokingham Station car parks, capacity 531 (SWR) or 424 (Ringo) but average usage pre-Covid unknown, seen at some time during 10 am-5 pm (most often 14:30-16:30).

W/S      Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri    Notes
5/7 - - 60 75 49 Sat 71
12/7 50 64 74 62 31 32
19/7 51* 72 79 57 46 *"Freedom day!"
26/7 38 57 60 63 -
2/8 45 52 69 63 50
9/8 56 - 88 87 59
16/8 54 70 86 66 54
23/8 65 84 63 82 92 Sat 34
30/8 34* 47 107 - 72 Sat 85 *Bank holiday Monday
6/9 72 65 92 60 60 Sat 93
13/9 87 116 110 107 -
20/9 76 118 128 130 60 Sat 83
27/9 93 114 135 132 86
4/10 72 121* 139 140 82 Sat 122 *Now some upstairs
11/10 80 102~ 139 157 75 Sat few (no trains!).
18/10 84 140 143 135 84
25/10 70 124 129 76 Sat 74.
1/11 77 121 155 143 60
8/11 75 143 152 96 Sat 142.
15/11 107 142 146 148 89 Sat 154.
22/11 130 139 193
29/11 84 109 142 88 Sat 123
6/12 93 109 142 84~
13/12 48* 48 68 52 38 Sat 75, *new WFM orders from today.
~ approx.
updated 18/12/21

You'll see that the trend for Saturday to be as busy as any weekday has continued since November - but then 'tis the season to go shopping, after all, nasty disease or no nasty disease.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on December 18, 2021, 06:23:37 pm
I’m looking forward to seeing the graph!  ;)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: CyclingSid on December 19, 2021, 07:26:23 am
The national figures are heading down
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040892/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040892/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods)
although I am not sure why Thursday is the day to go cycling.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on December 19, 2021, 12:35:24 pm
The national figures are heading down
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040892/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040892/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods)
although I am not sure why Thursday is the day to go cycling.

Maybe it rained a lot on March 5th 2020 - the baseline for the cycling figures is the same day in that week.

But a lot of other things could mess up those figures too, because of the way they are derived. There is no built-in counting system as there is for paid public transport, and very few installed bicycle counters. So they measure total travel based on mobile phone data (when and how often phones move between cells) and split it up using more comprehensive pre-covid data so give a pre-covid baseline. Then they subtract their estimated "inactive travel" to give a daily active travel total, and apply the pre-covid split of walking and cycling, plus whatever bike counts they can find, to estimate cycling. As they say of this:
Quote
This is a best-efforts estimate of national cycling utilising multiple data sources and is considered fit for purpose for reporting large changes in trends in usage. The methodology will be updated if or when additional information becomes available.
But walking would be worse - it's not covered because:
Quote
Walking is therefore a residual of a residual, and as we know that the telecommunications data does not capture short walks, we do not think the walking estimate in isolation is a useful indicator.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Surrey 455 on December 19, 2021, 02:57:44 pm

Maybe it rained a lot on March 5th 2020 - the baseline for the cycling figures is the same day in that week.

Yes, that was a wet day in London and probably elsewhere.
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/uk/london/historic?month=3&year=2020


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: eightonedee on February 08, 2022, 08:33:55 am
I am posting this from my first post Plan B commute between Goring and Guildford, last week's unfortunate events having curtailed my first attempt 

Impressions so far-

It's the busiest it's been since lockdown began nearly two years ago. Still not crowded, but noticeable that noone seems to want to share a double seat with a stranger,  so there were standing passengers by the time we left Tilehurst in half full carriage.

Mask wearing is at about 50%, with no immediately clear pattern of use, by age sex or other discernable characteristics.  This is unlike the situation before when young males tended to be the most frequent non-users.


Using the Stuving car park use test, it was 50% at Goring at 7-55, 80% at Pangbourne 5 minutes later but scarcely 25% at Tilehurst 


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: eightonedee on February 08, 2022, 06:50:55 pm
Now sat on a train awaiting departure from Guildford.

Rest of outward journey continued in a similar manner.  More passengers than before,  but not quite to the same extent as on the Goring  to Reading leg, although the reduction in numbers during the interludes between lockdowns plan Bs etc seemed less on the North Downs.

This evening at Guildford at 18-30 ish it didn't seem too different to the pre-pandemic days over on platform 8 away from the main Waterloo line trains, but these seemed less busy.

We are now underway so I am enjoying the familiar ambience of tired Turbo interior on the way back Reading.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: eightonedee on February 08, 2022, 08:01:32 pm
...and back at Reading sat on the Electrostar leaving for Goring,  having had the considerable pleasure of bumping into an old friend and colleague I had not seen in person since March 2020 changing trains in the opposite direction.

This train seems as busy as it would have been pre-covid. The difference is that about half of us are wearing masks.

The new normal?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: stuving on March 28, 2022, 06:41:09 pm
I keep meaning to update this ... and even I can't never get round to doing it. This adds another complete, if short, wave.

Number of cars in the Wokingham Station car parks, capacity 531 (SWR) or 424 (Ringo) but average usage pre-Covid unknown, seen at some time during 10 am-5 pm (most often 14:30-16:30).

W/S      Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu  Fri    Notes
5/7 - - 60 75 49 Sat 71
12/7 50 64 74 62 31 32
19/7 51* 72 79 57 46 *"Freedom day!"
26/7 38 57 60 63 -
2/8 45 52 69 63 50
9/8 56 - 88 87 59
16/8 54 70 86 66 54
23/8 65 84 63 82 92 Sat 34
30/8 34* 47 107 - 72 Sat 85 *Bank holiday Monday
6/9 72 65 92 60 60 Sat 93
13/9 87 116 110 107 -
20/9 76 118 128 130 60 Sat 83
27/9 93 114 135 132 86
4/10 72 121* 139 140 82 Sat 122 *Now some upstairs
11/10 80 102~ 139 157 75 Sat few (no trains!).
18/10 84 140 143 135 84
25/10 70 124 129 76 Sat 74.
1/11 77 121 155 143 60
8/11 75 143 152 96 Sat 142.
15/11 107 142 146 148 89 Sat 154.
22/11 130 139 193
29/11 84 109 142 88 Sat 123
6/12 93 109 142 84~
13/12 48* 48 68 52 38 Sat 75, *Plan B WFH orders from today.
20/12 42* 30 41 33 -
27/12 65 45 50 36 30
3/1/22 32 27 28 - - Sat 84
10/1 42 41 63 62 38 Sat 92
17/1 - 55 66 65 43 Sat 101
24/1 45 70 93 111* 65 Sat 110 * back to Plan A (WFW)
31/1 73 133 115 117 64 Sat 113
7/2 83 - 133 141 65 Sat 30* no trains today
14/2 72 127 - 123 -* *Eunice(no trains from 10:30)
21/2 30* 135 146 161 114 Sat 140 *Franklin (but trains ran)
28/2 87 - - 135 110 104
7/3 103 158 167 181 - 151
14/3 88 148 - 173 100 Sat 84
21/3 65 154 198 195 -
~ approx.
updated 18/12/21

You'll see that the trend for Saturday to be as busy as any weekday turned into it being busier during Plan B. I'm not sure if that was a return to SFS or something else. But since that ended, the numbers went up higher and quicker than before.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: CyclingSid on May 24, 2022, 07:31:34 am
I don't know if this will work

<iframe height="375px" width="100%" src="https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1971/time-series/index.html"></iframe> (http://<iframe height="375px" width="100%" src="https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1971/time-series/index.html"></iframe>)

A graph from "Is hybrid working here to stay?" by ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/ishybridworkingheretostay/2022-05-23 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/ishybridworkingheretostay/2022-05-23)
Showing less than 50% plan to Travel to work in future and about 25% Hybrid working, which obviously has implications for public transport.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on May 24, 2022, 08:15:37 am
GWR revenue (not passenger numbers) is almost 75% of what it was pre-Covid.  I think that’s a pretty remarkable figure given the big bucks still missing from business fares and season tickets.  Shows how well leisure has bounced back.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on May 24, 2022, 08:57:13 am
GWR revenue (not passenger numbers) is almost 75% of what it was pre-Covid.  I think that’s a pretty remarkable figure given the big bucks still missing from business fares and season tickets.  Shows how well leisure has bounced back.

Not GWR territory these days - but here's a picture I took at 13:25 yesterday - not peak commuter time, and on Monday - so not peak leisure time either!

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/busyagain.jpg)


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: bradshaw on May 24, 2022, 09:45:57 am
Ventured to Crewkerne station on Saturday to pick up Marion’s daughter and the station car park was almost full. Dropping her off on Sunday it was not quite as busy but around 30 people were waiting for the 17.19 to London.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on June 10, 2022, 10:19:42 am
GWR revenue (not passenger numbers) is almost 75% of what it was pre-Covid.  I think that’s a pretty remarkable figure given the big bucks still missing from business fares and season tickets.  Shows how well leisure has bounced back.

Out of interest, how is net income looking after costs are subtracted from that revenue?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on June 10, 2022, 10:30:42 am
GWR revenue (not passenger numbers) is almost 75% of what it was pre-Covid.  I think that’s a pretty remarkable figure given the big bucks still missing from business fares and season tickets.  Shows how well leisure has bounced back.

Out of interest, how is net income looking after costs are subtracted from that revenue?

That's a fascinating question ... we should also note that since this date in 2019 (if that''s the comparator) there have been fare rises of 2.4% (2020), 1.2% (2021) and 3.8% (2022) making a compound of around 7.5%, so perhaps in real terms it might only be back up at 67% of real income?


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on June 10, 2022, 01:13:32 pm
It's an old saying, but a very true one, that revenue is vanity & profit is sanity. If you don't know your costs, flagging up a revenue figure, even if it appears relatively healthy, is pretty meaningless.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: IndustryInsider on June 10, 2022, 01:53:45 pm
It's an old saying, but a very true one, that revenue is vanity & profit is sanity. If you don't know your costs, flagging up a revenue figure, even if it appears relatively healthy, is pretty meaningless.

Just a post for context, pertinent to the thread, with information others may not have been aware of.  Nothing more than that.  Sorry if you found it meaningless.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Clan Line on June 10, 2022, 03:26:13 pm
I wouldn't get too excited - today's Covid figures are up !


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: TaplowGreen on June 10, 2022, 04:07:04 pm
It's an old saying, but a very true one, that revenue is vanity & profit is sanity. If you don't know your costs, flagging up a revenue figure, even if it appears relatively healthy, is pretty meaningless.

Just a post for context, pertinent to the thread, with information others may not have been aware of.  Nothing more than that.  Sorry if you found it meaningless.

Actually I probably owe you an apology - I shouldn't have suggested that your post was meaningless, it wasn't meant personally but I can see how it may have been interpreted that way - what I should have said was that in order to give the revenue figure context, the corresponding details of costs need to be factored in.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: Marlburian on June 15, 2022, 01:27:52 pm
... Using the Stuving car park use test, it was 50% at Goring at 7-55, 80% at Pangbourne 5 minutes later but scarcely 25% at Tilehurst 

On my occasional forays through or past these stations, car-park occupancy at Tilehurst has always seemed to have recovered far less than at the others. Today at 0915 it was perhaps half full.

I caught the 0932 into Reading, which was as full (ie 15%) as it was before Lockdown. Mask-wearing was limited to a few people of colour and elderly people. (I'd meant to take one as I was buying a new pair of boots, which might have entailed coming into close proximity with a sales assistant; in the event I forgot, but managed to maintain a reasonable distance.)

There was still a form of social distancing in the short queue waiting for their bank in the Oracle to open at 1000.

At Reading Station several women were obviously heading for Ascot, as was one elegant (perhaps brave?) man in top hat and tails. I notice that one train departure was billed as apparently terminating at Ascot.


Title: Re: Patterns of returning passengers?
Post by: grahame on August 15, 2022, 06:04:27 am
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62542537

Quote
UK workers are going into the office an average of just 1.5 days a week, with only 13% coming in on a Friday, a survey suggests.

Consultancy Advanced Workplace Associates surveyed 43 offices in the UK, representing nearly 50,000 people, in June and July.

It suggests average attendance was just 29%, with a peak of 39% mid-week.

During the pandemic, offices shifted to home-working but many have continued with a hybrid model since then.

Pre-Covid, UK workers were going into the office an average of 3.8 days a week, the research - which covered sectors including banking, energy, engineering, healthcare, insurance and tech - found.



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