Great Western Coffee Shop

All across the Great Western territory => Looking forward - after Coronavirus to 2045 => Topic started by: grahame on August 26, 2020, 08:48:29



Title: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on August 26, 2020, 08:48:29
Current data suggests that trains are currently running across the GWR area with around a third to a fifth of the passenger numbers that they were carrying at this time last year (4 week period), but that's a step up of around a quarter on the previous 4 week period.  Where are we headed?

From The BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53901310) this morning


Quote
Fifty of the biggest UK employers questioned by BBC have said they have no plans to return all staff to the office full-time in the near future.

Some 24 firms said that they did not have any plans in place to return workers to the office.

However, 20 have opened their offices for staff unable to work from home.

It comes as many employees return to work from the summer holidays with the reality of a prolonged period of home working becoming increasingly likely.

The BBC questioned 50 big employers ranging from banks to retailers to get a sense of when they expected to ask employees to return to the office.

One of the main reasons given for the lack of a substantial return was that firms could not see a way of accommodating large numbers of staff while social distancing regulations were still in place.

Many companies said they were offering choice and flexibility to those who want to return, particularly in the banking and finance sectors.

A few firms have already announced they have no plans to return to the office until late autumn, and Facebook has said it does not plan a return of employees until July 2021.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: stuving on August 26, 2020, 09:26:20
One thing I've not yet seen mentioned (though I expect it was in the vast amount of written stuff I've not sampled) is the impact of RSI and the ergonomes. Once your employer asks and/or requires you to work at home, rather than both parties being subject to government diktat, do they become liable for the suitability of your home for working in? Will you be able to sue them for industrial injuries - I think this is the case for your car, if your work involves driving? Are the unions and lawyers already looking at this? (The answer to that last question must be yes.)


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Ralph Ayres on August 26, 2020, 10:26:28
Internet/phone connections are another issue. Most people are probably happy to use the access they already pay for when working from home (though the employer paying a share would no doubt be welcome) but if a fault develops and the employee is therefore unable to work then who is responsible? I've already heard of firms saying that staff would have to use annual leave in such a situation. This would not be the case in an office, and the business would be able to exert more pressure to get it fixed quickly than an individual domestic customer would.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Red Squirrel on August 26, 2020, 11:49:29
Something that I don't think anyone has quite said yet is: Isn't it a really good thing if fewer people need to travel for work?

Many of us here find transport fascinating, exciting even, but I think it is fair to assume that the majority of commuters are more than happy not to spend a significant part of their day crammed onto buses or trains, or sitting fuming in a traffic jam listening to the inanities of drivetime radio. Of course this change is economically disruptive; our transport systems and planning policies have been ratcheting up to provide for an increasingly-hypermobile world, and suddenly we have changed course towards uncharted waters.

Any change, even a change for the better, presents problems. You can't make an omelette without opening a packet of tofu. But do most people really want things to go back to how they were?



Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Phantom on August 26, 2020, 12:07:43
One thing I've not yet seen mentioned (though I expect it was in the vast amount of written stuff I've not sampled) is the impact of RSI and the ergonomes. Once your employer asks and/or requires you to work at home, rather than both parties being subject to government diktat, do they become liable for the suitability of your home for working in? Will you be able to sue them for industrial injuries - I think this is the case for your car, if your work involves driving? Are the unions and lawyers already looking at this? (The answer to that last question must be yes.)

The person working at home should really be completing a DSE assessment on their new work surroundings.
It is their responsibility to ensure they complete the DSE and then their employers can react accordingly if required


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: mjones on August 26, 2020, 12:18:30
Privacy and data protection needs to be considered as well. Many people currently working at home are having to share space with partners,  housemates etc. That isn't ideal for calls involving personal information,  staff appraisals etc. I think there has been too much complacency about the issues discussed in this thread in many organisations.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: stuving on August 26, 2020, 12:31:48
Yougov have just released the results of a survey in France, showing overall WFH rates of 27% during lockdown now having fallen to 15% For the Ile-de-France region the figures are 39% and 14%, and for Paris 45% and 22%. All of those are lower than the equivalent rates here - 35% to 29% for the UK. I'm not sure they are truly equivalent, e.g. on timing, nor if the explanation offered - more emplyment in the UK suitable for doing at home - is convincing.

And then there's the difference in government advice on safe loading levels in trains: in France it's virtually "wear a mask and any level is OK".


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Lee on August 26, 2020, 12:58:16
Yougov have just released the results of a survey in France, showing overall WFH rates of 27% during lockdown now having fallen to 15% For the Ile-de-France region the figures are 39% and 14%, and for Paris 45% and 22%. All of those are lower than the equivalent rates here - 35% to 29% for the UK. I'm not sure they are truly equivalent, e.g. on timing, nor if the explanation offered - more emplyment in the UK suitable for doing at home - is convincing.

And then there's the difference in government advice on safe loading levels in trains: in France it's virtually "wear a mask and any level is OK".

A couple of points to add to that. Firstly, quite a few people, particularly from Paris and the surrounding Ile-de-France region, escaped to their second homes or parents homes in less built-up parts of France (not least to here in Brittany) during the time gap between lockdown being announced and it actually taking effect. Many have since returned - Were these "escapees" classed as "working from home" during lockdown?

Secondly, unlike in the UK, rail timetables here in France are now almost all as they would have been in a pre'-Covid summer, and have been for some time now. The upcoming "back to work" Autumn rail timetables are also as you would normally expect for the time of year.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on August 26, 2020, 14:21:10
More from the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53524486)

Quote
Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, more of us have been getting used to working from home. With social distancing measures still in force, some companies have suggested workers may not be back in the office until 2021.

So if you're getting bored with the same four walls, are you allowed to pack up your home office and work remotely from another country?

Nothing new there - Lisa did it 23 years ago - visited me in the UK from Florida, worked from Easterton with incoming and outgoing via fax, ftp, email on phone lines. Salary paid into her USA account, drawn out of ATM via credit card.  Mind you, we were early adoptors of the technology.

Privacy and data protection needs to be considered as well. Many people currently working at home are having to share space with partners,  housemates etc. That isn't ideal for calls involving personal information,  staff appraisals etc. I think there has been too much complacency about the issues discussed in this thread in many organisations.

There's a huge difference from one person's job to the next, and a big difference between a few days, a few months and permanent.  Consider too tenancy agreements where the property is let as a private home and the tenant may not carry on his trade there, and things like "Employers must, by law, prevent people from smoking at work if within an enclosed or substantially enclosed space or in certain vehicles".  May sound just that bit far fetched, but when we lived up the road, we had planning permission for dual use, and "no smoking" signs on the door. And, yes, business insurance, etc.

Something that I don't think anyone has quite said yet is: Isn't it a really good thing if fewer people need to travel for work?

Maybe not, but I think I got quite close.  Travel to work can be a waste of time, provision of extra facilities (be that wider roads or more carriages) that are only really needed at the peak is hardly cost effective, and we can be much more climate friendly and improve the quality of life if we move into an era in which the top is cut off the travel peak.

I guess I have lived a none-commuting life style for the last 20 years and a none-9-to-5 one too for 15 years. It worked for me and I would recommend it.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: johoare on August 26, 2020, 14:31:26
My previous manager was a stickler for having people in the office at all times (he must be very uncomfortable with these new ways of working). At my company now we've been Working at home since mid March and this has been extended to at least the start of November.. The office is open for people who can only work from there and also some people who live on their own have taken advantage of going in occasionally for a change of scenery (and canteen food).

I definitely don't miss my three hours of commuting a day and the being crammed onto trains so hope we won't be made to go back anytime soon. My current manager fortunately agrees with that opinion. I suspect it would be silly to make people go back to work over winter when germs and viruses are more prevalent anyway. People working at home where they can also keeps the trains available and safer for social distancing for those people who have no option other than to use them.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on August 27, 2020, 06:30:09
Something that I don't think anyone has quite said yet is: Isn't it a really good thing if fewer people need to travel for work?

[snip]

Any change, even a change for the better, presents problems. You can't make an omelette without opening a packet of tofu. But do most people really want things to go back to how they were?


Some really do look as if they want things back as they were ...  BBC report (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53925917)

Quote
City centres could become "ghost towns" if the prime minister does not to do more to encourage workers to go back to the office, the head of the CBI says.

Dame Carolyn Fairbairn said allowing staff to work from home had helped keep firms afloat during the pandemic.

But as offices stood empty, thousands of local businesses that relied on the passing trade were suffering, she said.

Writing in the Daily Mail, Dame Carolyn said the UK's offices were "vital drivers" of the economy, supporting thousands of local firms, from dry cleaners to sandwich bars.

"The costs of office closure are becoming clearer by the day. Some of our busiest city centres resemble ghost towns, missing the usual bustle of passing trade.

"This comes at a high price for local businesses, jobs and communities," she said.

She said getting people back into offices and workplaces should be "as important" as the return to school, and directly appealed to Boris Johnson to "do more to build confidence".



Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on August 27, 2020, 07:00:22
The newspapers have picked this up too - from the  BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-53927195)

Quote
"We must rescue ghost town Britain" is the headline in the Daily Mail.

Dame Carolyn Fairbairn, who is the head of the business organisation the CBI, argues in the paper that getting employees back into their offices, post-lockdown, is as important for the country as returning pupils to the classroom.

The paper contrasts the courage of front-line workers during the peak of the pandemic, with what it sees as the reluctance of most people to give up the habit of working from home.

"The professional classes," it says, "seem troublingly reticent follow the lead of these lion-hearts".

Similar sentiments are expressed by the Sun, which accuses firms that don't require their staff to return to the workplace of "strangling the golden goose of commerce, just as we need to stimulate an economic recovery".

Its opinion column points out that "the best companies create via teamwork in offices". It fears that, if working from home becomes the norm, "productivity and innovation will nosedive".

However, the i newspaper believes there are arguments for allowing people to have a say in where they do their jobs. "Blanket enforcement of one policy or the other will only leave swathes of the workforce unhappy."

Isn't nearly everyone looking out for what's effective for them and their organisation's future ... and perhaps it is very much a brave step to look to a new, more sustainable, higher life quality normal.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: CyclingSid on August 27, 2020, 07:18:26
At my place of work we have seen people come into work when their home system/connection fails. Home IT systems for most users are probably less reliable than office systems managed by a dedicated IT team.

Also our employer has noticed that some staff with poor connections at home have been logging on through 4G, and doing the sums have realised that could be a million pound hit to the organisation's budget.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Robin Summerhill on August 27, 2020, 10:57:21
There are so many points I could pick up on in this thread that I could easily write a War and Peace length reply, so I’ll confine myself to just a few!

I think it is beginning to become clear now that, despite what some employers and local businesses and the government might want, we will not be going back completely to the old ways any time soon. I was interested to read earlier in the thread the compassion with France, but I don’t know (perhaps Lee does so can answer the query) whether the French commute such large distances that are commonplace in the UK. This may well have a bearing on the matter.

If, for sake of argument, you live in the affluent north western suburbs of Bristol and work at Canary Wharf, you have at least a two and a half hour commute each way ie. Home to Parkway or BTM (say 20 mins), at least an 80 min train ride to PAD, then half an hour or so on TfL. Add on a bit for waiting for trains and walking station platforms etc and you have the 150 minutes. Then do it all again in reverse at the end of the day, and that is 5 hours of the day gone. Then add the working day itself say 9 hours including lunch break, and 14 hours of your 24 hour day is accounted for. Then when at home you have to sleep, eat and hopefully get a bit of relaxation in, and you’ve only got ten hours a day to do it in. And you do that 5 days a week.

If you are of a nervous disposition regarding COVID (and even if you’re not!) that is one hell of a lot of potential exposure to the virus in all manner of different situations. I can fully understand the reticence that many may feel about going back to work, especially when considering that you can do a 9-hour day at home and have a much better overall quality of life into the bargain.

I find it difficult to believe that any responsible employer would tell their employees to take annual leave because their home internet connection was down (cowboy employers might be another matter). As said earlier, many companies have a dedicated IT team who can often sort out computer glitches remotely by” taking over” a home PC and, if not, I have yet to come across a computer shop that does not have a premium call-out service that can sort your problems out (albeit for a healthy price) within 24 hours.

Finally, I am not displaying any closet left wing leanings (because I haven’t got any...) when I say this, but I am a little perplexed by a conservative government getting so concerned about “ghost towns.” I thought the Tory mantra was to let market forces decide. That was certainly what they said 40 years ago as they presided over then end of heavy industry and most of the mining industry in the UK.

Are things different this time because politicians can see the effects outside their windows in Westminster? Only asking...


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: IndustryInsider on August 27, 2020, 11:12:44
It'll be interesting to see if, longer term, house prices even out a little bit and places such as Maidenhead become less attractive places to live in as people won't need to live so close to London.  It looks as if commuting will be reduced significantly, but long distance commuting could actually rise as a result of people only going in to their offices a couple of days a week. 

Huge longer term changes are ahead.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: johnneyw on August 27, 2020, 14:18:07
It may turn out that, post Covid, we may have surplus office space due to working from home being here to stay in a way not previously imagined.  Converting surplus office space into homes though could simultaneously help address the "ghost town" effect, housing shortages and suburban sprawl.  It's not anything particularly new. Here in Bristol office space has been turned into residential and also student accommodation for years.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on August 28, 2020, 06:04:38
There are so many points I could pick up on in this thread that I could easily write a War and Peace length reply

Ditto, Robin ... and I too am resisting the temptation.

Quote
Finally, I am not displaying any closet left wing leanings (because I haven’t got any...) when I say this, but I am a little perplexed by a conservative government getting so concerned about “ghost towns.” I thought the Tory mantra was to let market forces decide. That was certainly what they said 40 years ago as they presided over then end of heavy industry and most of the mining industry in the UK.

Are things different this time because politicians can see the effects outside their windows in Westminster? Only asking...

Maybe ... or is it the worldwide magnitude, other massive items on the agenda such as climate and BLM, and the daily flow of news which allows us all to know and talk about it as it happens - the Information Age.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: CyclingSid on August 28, 2020, 06:55:20
The problem with converting offices to homes is the lack of basic standards for housing in the UK. Similarly with the "we'll tear up red tape" attitude to planning permission. Builders/developers are sitting on a million plus approved planning applications, presumably to await the prices to go up or the standards to go down, more profit both ways. If the government had produced a national (whatever that is nowadays) minimum standard for housing before saying we'll remove the bulk of planning controls that would have been better for future house purchasers.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: PhilWakely on August 28, 2020, 10:01:09
The problem with converting offices to homes is the lack of basic standards for housing in the UK. Similarly with the "we'll tear up red tape" attitude to planning permission. Builders/developers are sitting on a million plus approved planning applications, presumably to await the prices to go up or the standards to go down, more profit both ways. If the government had produced a national (whatever that is nowadays) minimum standard for housing before saying we'll remove the bulk of planning controls that would have been better for future house purchasers.

Developers are an extemely powerful lobby group to the Government [of any colour]; house buyers not quite so.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on August 28, 2020, 10:01:30
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

Quote
People will again be encouraged to go back to their workplaces as part of a government campaign starting next week.

Employers will be asked to reassure staff it is safe to return by highlighting measures taken to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

Business leaders have warned of damage being done to city centres as people stay away from offices.

And Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said some things were "impossible" to do remotely.

But Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he cared more about how employees performed than where they were working from.

The campaign, which will launch as most schools in England and Wales reopen, will predominantly be promoted through regional media, BBC political correspondent Iain Watson said.

Will employers also be asked to reassure staff that it's much better for their (staff's) quality of life to spend several hours a day trapsing back and forth between Didcot and Canary Wharf, or whatever the trip is?


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Robin Summerhill on August 28, 2020, 12:40:26
The problem with converting offices to homes is the lack of basic standards for housing in the UK. Similarly with the "we'll tear up red tape" attitude to planning permission. Builders/developers are sitting on a million plus approved planning applications, presumably to await the prices to go up or the standards to go down, more profit both ways. If the government had produced a national (whatever that is nowadays) minimum standard for housing before saying we'll remove the bulk of planning controls that would have been better for future house purchasers.

Sorry Sid but you are almost completely misinformed about this, possibly due to a confusion between planning laws and building regulations. Having worked in the housing industry for 30-odd years I can assure you the difference is important.

We have had basic standards for housing in this country for nearly 60 years – the Parker Morris standard. Furthermore, we had basic standards at least for social jousting well before that, from at least the “Homes Fit for Heroes” building mini-boom immediately after WW1.

Planning laws govern what can be built and where it can be built. Building Regulations govern how the buildings that have been given planning permission are constructed. Building Regulations have been tightened over and over again over the years and nobody, not even our government, is suggesting that an axe is taken to them.

There are, however, a number of obstacles to overcome when offices are converted into housing, especially with buildings from around the 1960s. They are often poorly insulated (Building Regs won’t allow that), window openings are often too big (it might be difficult to provide individual windows for individual flats without major reconstruction work); a communal central heating system might be inadequate and need replacing or individual central heating boilers may be required for each unit; there will be a lot more plumbing in a block of flats than there will in an office, and so on. All that said, it can of course be done and it is often done, but nobody should delude themselves into thinking that it is simply a case of moving the desks out and the beds and armchairs in.

Relaxation of planning laws will not change any of this in the slightest. What it may well change is stopping NIMBYs who don’t like change – any change – from taking well-thought-out planning applications through appeal, judicial review and Lord knows what else, in truth just because they don’t want a new development in their neck of the woods.

I shall try to make sure my next post is completely on topic!  ;D




Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: eXPassenger on August 28, 2020, 14:52:05
I agree that Building Regulations specify how the building will be built and Planning looks at the density and external appearance.

The Parker Morris standards applied to public housing and were abolished in 1980.  What regulations now specify the internal quality of a building such as the size of rooms?  Every time I see a new build house it seems smaller than the previous ones.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: ellendune on August 28, 2020, 20:37:44
I agree that Building Regulations specify how the building will be built and Planning looks at the density and external appearance.

The Parker Morris standards applied to public housing and were abolished in 1980.  What regulations now specify the internal quality of a building such as the size of rooms?  Every time I see a new build house it seems smaller than the previous ones.

One thing that can be done through planning (supplementary planning guidance) is minimum space requirements. The LGA have done this IIRC. These used to be covered by Parker Morris (only for public housing).

Some things that were in old building byelaws (Before 1966 when Building Regs came in) are not in building regs because they were considered unnecessary. One such is the need for natural ventilation.  The 1877 model byelaws banned true back to back housing so there should be a through (front to back) ventilation. However, office conversions and some modern flats have problems with ventilation and overheat. 


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Lee on August 29, 2020, 12:01:06
I think it is beginning to become clear now that, despite what some employers and local businesses and the government might want, we will not be going back completely to the old ways any time soon. I was interested to read earlier in the thread the compassion with France, but I don’t know (perhaps Lee does so can answer the query) whether the French commute such large distances that are commonplace in the UK. This may well have a bearing on the matter.

As far here in Brittany goes, it varies. For example, there have traditionally been heavy commuter flows on the 5 key suburban rail corridors into Rennes (Montreuil-sur-Ille, Vitre, Retiers, Messac-Guipry and Montauban-de-Bretagne), which are 40km or less. However, there are also corridors such as Brest-Rennes and Quimper-Rennes which are over 200km and have traditionally seen significant commuter flows in both directions.

However on our Guingamp-Carhaix line, the main flow is schoolchildren and college students. Up until recently, the timetable also tried to cater for commuters into Guingamp and Carhaix, but found it simply could not attract them onto the services in a losing battle with a predominantly car-owning culture, encouraged by the need to own one due to the geography of the area. Therefore, it has instead been adapted to encourage leisure and longer distance travel by maximising connections with TGV services to Paris, Rennes and elsewhere.

As an interesting aside, fares on the Brittany bus network undergo a major overhaul from 1 September, in order to provide a better fit with the "new normal". Prices rise for medium-distance departmental routes much-used by commuters (in order to encourage more to work from home and reduce the risk of crowding on peak services), but fall for those under-26 (who are more likely to be willing to take the "risk" of using public transport), for the unemployed (who may well need to travel further afield to find work and be less able to afford the running costs of a car), and on the longer-distance inter-departmental routes (in order to encourage more leisure traffic).

This will include fare price caps so that the unemployed and the under-26's will never pay more than 3€ or 4€ per single journey respectively.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: REVUpminster on August 29, 2020, 13:27:40
Brentwood in Essex had Ford's UK headquarters and was converted to flats when Ford moved out. A similar scheme for Aviva office block in Basildon but that ended up being demolished and 50 flats built.

Homes fit for Heroes after ww1 resulted in the huge Becontree estate but as the estate grew the later properties became smaller as the London County Council ran out of money.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 01, 2020, 08:12:32
From Diamond Geezer (https://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2020/09/go-back.html)

Quote
Summer is over.

It's time to go back.

Please do not believe everything you read there  :D


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Sixty3Closure on September 06, 2020, 11:15:14
It's behind a paywall unfortunately but The Sunday Times is reporting that the new timetable will be reduced from pre Coivd levels with many of the cuts falling on early and late services. The quotes from the rail companies are about focusing on peak commuter services.

Meanwhile elsewhere in the paper we're all being extolled to get back into the office but we should stagger our work times. Not just for the travel but because of limits on how many people can get in lifts, use canteens etc.

The paper does, almost reluctantly, admit that some towns and cities that aren't London are seeing increased spend.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: stuving on September 06, 2020, 11:27:33
It's behind a paywall unfortunately but The Sunday Times is reporting that the new timetable will be reduced from pre Coivd levels with many of the cuts falling on early and late services. The quotes from the rail companies are about focusing on peak commuter services.

Meanwhile elsewhere in the paper we're all being extolled to get back into the office but we should stagger our work times. Not just for the travel but because of limits on how many people can get in lifts, use canteens etc.

The paper does, almost reluctantly, admit that some towns and cities that aren't London are seeing increased spend.

The ST headline is "Railway firms to cancel 10% of services". After a few paragraphs of this desperate attempt to make a shock horror story they do point out that (1) DfT sets service levels and (2) it's an increase, but not back up to 100% of what was planned (I doubt they can tells the difference between that and what the pre-March services were).

There is a paragraph on GWR, which reads: "GWR said it was focusing on providing trains for the return to work, at the expense of late-night services and weekends, with Sundays taking the brunt of the cuts when the service will be 76% of the normal timetable. Some fast services on weekdays between Bristol and London are not being reintroduced for now."


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 06, 2020, 11:32:08
It's behind a paywall unfortunately but The Sunday Times is reporting that the new timetable will be reduced from pre Coivd levels with many of the cuts falling on early and late services. The quotes from the rail companies are about focusing on peak commuter services.

You will note from Real Time Trains - or if you look at the draft timetables for your specific lines in "Transport Scholars" and "Frequent Posters" that this generality has specific application in our area; in particular I am commenting for the Central area which I have looked into in the last few days.   Gaps / and earlier last trains from Bristol Temple Meads to Keynsham, Oldfield Park, Frome and Weymouth this autumn that were not gaps last autumn are issues that members may like to look at - with a note that there may even at this late point be slight changes that can make a big difference to what you see on Real Time Trains.

Quote
Meanwhile elsewhere in the paper we're all being extolled to get back into the office but we should stagger our work times. Not just for the travel but because of limits on how many people can get in lifts, use canteens etc.

The paper does, almost reluctantly, admit that some towns and cities that aren't London are seeing increased spend.

Yes ... a final train at 17:45 rather than 20:48 makes it darned hard to stay late, doesn't it, if you're Yeovil based and looking to do a later day in your office in Bristol.    And if you live in Westbury Leigh - the new residential / commuter suburb of that town - you'll find that your local station (Dilton Marsh) has made anything but a conventional 9 to 5 day in Bath or Bristol pretty impractical.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 06, 2020, 11:52:02
To add ... the 18:52 Swindon to Westbury is still missing (it's part of a Gloucester to Southampton service), leaving a gap from 17:36 to 20:45 in services from Swindon - where a lot of people work / have offices - back to Melksham.   The loss of the early evening service does make a mockery of the "spread your travel out" message!

For anyone visiting their office in London, return connections from Paddington now have a gap from 16:32 to 19:48 ... the train shown in the 2020 National Rail timetable from London at 18:00, arriving Melksham at 19:17 with a change at Chippenham, no longer being available.  Looking on the bright side, the change may help persuade Melksham people going to London to an office for the day to return off peak - saving themselves money.  £182.00 anytime return - up on the 07:20 or 07:53, back on the 18:00 no longer possible.  Most expensive now 2 singles - up on either of those two trains and back on the 16:32 at £136.30, or back on the 19:48 at £124.50


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Lee on September 06, 2020, 13:33:06
Question for all those in a Community Rail, User Group or Passenger Representative role:

Have either DfT or GWR given you any actual guarantees that your missing services will return, or are you simply assuming that they will at some unspecified point in the future?


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 06, 2020, 14:48:46
Question for all those in a Community Rail, User Group or Passenger Representative role:

Have either DfT or GWR given you any actual guarantees that your missing services will return, or are you simply assuming that they will at some unspecified point in the future?

Lee - you have tried what in sales terms would be an alternative close ... asking your contacts to choose between (a) and (b) where, happily, neither is the case  ;D ;D

There are no guarantees.  But there is a statement of plan / direction which is broadly agreed and eminently sensible - not an assumption on the part of groups at the recent timetabling meetings, but not a full-blown promise either which could actually be counter-productive if it commits both sides (not 100% happy with word "sides") to the same old service which replicates historic features not right for new requirements and, indeed, that we might have been looking to change already.

A real feeling - and I'm sure it was carefully (but welcomely) fertilised by GWR to be looking forward with the goal of filling in the significant gaps where services are missing, but that does not actually mean the return of all the missing services as they were. Sad past experience leads me still to have one eye on the possibility that fine words and intents will melt away into long grass, pathing, staffing, cost, political and possession problems, and the cashing in of optimism factors - but that is not to stop the movements forward especially where things can be come up with that make so much sense ...


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: TaplowGreen on September 06, 2020, 16:44:05
Question for all those in a Community Rail, User Group or Passenger Representative role:

Have either DfT or GWR given you any actual guarantees that your missing services will return, or are you simply assuming that they will at some unspecified point in the future?

Lee - you have tried what in sales terms would be an alternative close ... asking your contacts to choose between (a) and (b) where, happily, neither is the case  ;D ;D

There are no guarantees.  But there is a statement of plan / direction which is broadly agreed and eminently sensible - not an assumption on the part of groups at the recent timetabling meetings, but not a full-blown promise either which could actually be counter-productive if it commits both sides (not 100% happy with word "sides") to the same old service which replicates historic features not right for new requirements and, indeed, that we might have been looking to change already.

A real feeling - and I'm sure it was carefully (but welcomely) fertilised by GWR to be looking forward with the goal of filling in the significant gaps where services are missing, but that does not actually mean the return of all the missing services as they were. Sad past experience leads me still to have one eye on the possibility that fine words and intents will melt away into long grass, pathing, staffing, cost, political and possession problems, and the cashing in of optimism factors - but that is not to stop the movements forward especially where things can be come up with that make so much sense ...

Have you ever considered going into Politics?  ;)


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 06, 2020, 16:51:59
Have you ever considered going into Politics?  ;)


Yes.


No.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 06, 2020, 23:43:29
Can't believe I'm quoting the Daily Mail (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8703449/Rail-companies-slash-one-ten-services-post-lockdown-passenger-numbers-plummet.html)

Quote
Britain's rail companies will slash one in ten services as post-lockdown passenger numbers plummet.

The new autumn train timetables will be phased in from today with services operating at 10 per cent below the levels before the pandemic.

This will leave passengers with longer wait times and see trains that ran hourly cut to running every two hours. 

[snip]

Rail operators have said services were unlikely to rise above 90 per cent until May next year, with few services being restored in the winter timetables.

Susie Homan, a director of the Rail Delivery Group, said they wanted passengers to 'travel with confidence' which means running a service that is 'more reliable than before'.

The Department for Transport said that it was 'inaccurate and untrue' that they would agree to fewer services operating in the long term.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: MVR S&T on September 07, 2020, 00:07:33
The ten percent, mabe covered by comuter services? Much as its sad to see London city and other office areas sheding jobs in the 'support' sector, a spreading out of wealth, in the long term should get us out of the London magnet thinking, hey even HS2 may be worth while after all.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: TaplowGreen on September 07, 2020, 08:25:28
The ten percent, mabe covered by comuter services? Much as its sad to see London city and other office areas sheding jobs in the 'support' sector, a spreading out of wealth, in the long term should get us out of the London magnet thinking, hey even HS2 may be worth while after all.

Chap from the Rail Delivery Group has just been interviewed on the BBC at Liverpool Street and has suggested that commuter services are at around 95%, running longer services to help social distancing which would suggest the bulk of the reductions are going to be elsewhere.

As an aside I had a trip into Reading on Friday - train virtually empty both ways, and was really shocked by the state of Reading City Centre - dirty, deserted (even The Oracle) and an awful lot of shops etc closed, bars/restaurants virtually empty.

Interestingly - huge queues at most of the Banks.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: CyclingSid on September 07, 2020, 09:21:42
Haven't been in The Oracle, but riverside eateries were absolutely heaving for Eat Out to Help Out.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Gordon the Blue Engine on September 07, 2020, 09:29:43
The off-peak service from Pangbourne (ie the Paddington-Didcot stoppers) is still hourly instead of the pre-Covid level of half-hourly, but according to RTT goes half-hourly on 21st September.

Nice to get our normal service back, but I can see that it must be difficult to justify running 8 car trains every 30 minutes for the number of passengers travelling. 


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 07, 2020, 09:38:40
The off-peak service from Pangbourne (ie the Paddington-Didcot stoppers) is still hourly instead of the pre-Covid level of half-hourly, but according to RTT goes half-hourly on 21st September.

Nice to get our normal service back, but I can see that it must be difficult to justify running 8 car trains every 30 minutes for the number of passengers travelling. 


Do not believe Real Time Trains beyond a few days ahead; the working timetable ahead tells you what was being planned for the whole year when uploaded prior to last December.   It's also showing the 18:51 Swindon to Melksham which we would dearly love back - at present if you miss the train just after half past five, your next one is quarter to nine which hardly helps people follow the government's recommendation of "spread out the working day" and "travel at quieter times".   Slightly jealous of even your hourly service  ;)


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Gordon the Blue Engine on September 07, 2020, 11:07:00
Yes, it did cross my mind that RTT may not be accurate while services are being slowly restored (or not as the case may be) ...


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Marlburian on September 07, 2020, 11:13:37
The off-peak service from Pangbourne (ie the Paddington-Didcot stoppers) is still hourly instead of the pre-Covid level of half-hourly, but according to RTT goes half-hourly on 21st September.

Nice to get our normal service back, but I can see that it must be difficult to justify running 8 car trains every 30 minutes for the number of passengers travelling. 


I used think that off-peak eight-car trains were too generous in Old Normal times, with less than a score of passengers between Didcot and Reading - though of course there would have been far more between Maidenhead and Paddington.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: stuving on September 07, 2020, 11:45:31
Yes, it did cross my mind that RTT may not be accurate while services are being slowly restored (or not as the case may be) ...

In theory, the WTT should be stable as far as the booking horizon, which GWR say is currently 27th November (weekdays). But that's a pre-Covid theory, and it's hard to know if it's been overruled by emergency stuff. Plus it only applies to reservations and advance tickets in any case.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: IndustryInsider on September 07, 2020, 12:28:13
Don’t trust anything in RTT more than a week ahead!

You can’t even trust TRUST at the moment.  [in joke for those who know their internal railway systems!]  :D


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: didcotdean on September 07, 2020, 14:04:42
I've found a few "Unadvertised Ordinary Passenger" trains in RTT, eg 2P34, 0909 Didcot to Paddington., which used to be a train I used quite regularly (or its close equivalent).


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: stuving on September 07, 2020, 14:23:21
Can't believe I'm quoting the Daily Mail (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8703449/Rail-companies-slash-one-ten-services-post-lockdown-passenger-numbers-plummet.html)

Quote
Britain's rail companies will slash one in ten services as post-lockdown passenger numbers plummet.

The new autumn train timetables will be phased in from today with services operating at 10 per cent below the levels before the pandemic.

This will leave passengers with longer wait times and see trains that ran hourly cut to running every two hours. 

[snip]


The introduction to an item on the same thing on the BBC lunchtime news was "Back on track - train services return to near normal pre-pandemic capacity", later quantified as around 90%.

So, do you see your glass (First or Standard) as:
1)  90% FULL or
2)  10% EMPTY!!!!


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: broadgage on September 08, 2020, 14:40:44
If working from home becomes popular, I foresee a new growth industry in ensuring that these new workplaces are "compliant" with existing rules and regulations.
Data security has been mentioned, as has the prohibition on smoking in most workplaces, and tenancy agreements that may prohibit use of a rented home for work.

Here are a few more pots of gold for consultants.

PAT testing, how long before the elfansafety require that all electrical appliances in the home workplace require testing by an approved firm and certificates issued. (we can arrange this for a competitive price)

Water hygiene. Is YOUR domestic hot water system fully compliant with all requirements and recommendations regarding the control of legionnaires disease ? Do you have a water hygiene log book ? (we can handle this for you)

Emergency lighting. Does your home workplace have emergency lighting that complies with all regulations and requirements ? Is it tested monthly ? with a full duration discharge test annually ? can you prove  this.
Is alternative emergency lighting available for when the batteries in the main emergency lighting have been discharged for test purposes. (our fully approved sub-contractor can handle this for you)

Pest control. Is the home workplace free of pests ? Do you have regular inspections to confirm this ? Are the records available for inspection. (we can perform these inspections for a nominal £59-89+vat, extermination extra)

Lifting and hoisting equipment. Is this regularly inspected by an approved insurance company ? (if you have no such equipment, we can issue a simple certificate confirming this, from £86.42, plus VAT.)

Fire alarm, it is unlikely that domestic smoke detectors will be considered suitable. We will be pleased to quote for an approved system. There is NO CHARGE for our survey.



Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 08, 2020, 15:05:49
If working from home becomes popular, I foresee a new growth industry in ensuring that these new workplaces are "compliant" with existing rules and regulations. ....

[snip]

You are taking the p*** there - whilst these things are important, you much first consider:

* Accident book and approved workplace safety aid kit, with appropriate emergency training so that you know how to resuscitate yourself should you need it

* Accessibility for all modifications should any deliveries be made by a person who requires them, including modifications to your loo or a fitting of one on the ground floor should that person be caught short

* Food hygiene training and inspection on an annual basis by the local authority should you wish to eat at your desk while working

* Conformance of your chair to HSE seating at work regulations



Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: CyclingSid on September 09, 2020, 06:46:01
Quote
Conformance of your chair to HSE seating at work regulations
Back pain is a high cause of NHS usage.

Quote
Food hygiene training and inspection on an annual basis by the local authority should you wish to eat at your desk while working
Food poisoning is also a use of NHS resources.

Not so much regulation, but the application of common sense.

I do understand that most H&S regulation appeared due to the lack of common sense.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Robin Summerhill on September 10, 2020, 12:50:29
BG appears to have missed one (serious) fundamental point, which is that some people have worked from home from time immemorial. People with cottage industries making anything from straw bonnets to jewellery; cabinet makers or whatever in their sheds; script writers and authors and so on, to say nothing of the professional people such as accountants, lawyers, consultants etc, all of whom are examples. There will of course be many others.

Special regulations already apply in some cases, for example the rating system specifically excludes some of these people from paying business rates.

There is also the little practical matter of enforcement. Here is a post that I made on another forum when the smoking at work legislation first arrived on the Statute Book in 2007:


Bloke A is self-employed, a smoker and works mainly at home with occasional visits to client’s premises.

Blokess B is married to bloke A and is also self-employed. She normally works on client’s premises but works from home about 15 hours a week. She has her own desk in bloke A’s office. Blokess B is also a smoker.

Question – leaving the strict interpretation of the smoking at work legislation to one side, how many ashtrays do you think there are in Bloke A’s office?

;)


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 13, 2020, 11:55:24
Picking up from another thread ... this struck me while I was very busy on other things, coming back to comment now.
There is no such thing as a 'new normal' it's just media speak to cause fear and panic. We didn't have a 'new normal' after the 2008 recession, nor after Swine Flu. Life changes as things evolve, tha's just general life.

The wording "new normal" is indeed a convenient label for the media.   Intended "to cause fear and panic" but an appreciation that there will be things in 2021 or 2023 which are different to things were in 2017 or 2019.  Life does indeed "change as things evolve" and always has done, call it "general life" if you don't want to label it.

But ... I heard it said, and agree with the sentiment that, over the second quarter of this year, there were an underlying year's worth of changes each month.  So whilst things changed from 2017 to 2019 in general life, the changes from 2019 to 2021 in life will be far more significant - perhaps things will have changed in 2 years as much as they have typically done in 10. And then they will revert to the same level of change in the following 2 years.  So - a step change / a leap over the current year or two, with less dramatic changes expected thereafter.

My crystal ball, though, has an ill-defined time axis and things may remain very changeable through 2021;  perhaps I should have looked forward to 2022 and compared it to 2024?  My crystal ball has also reacted for the purposes of this look ahead to the shake caused by the coronavirus pandemic, and may not have fully factored in changes from other events - climate change, resource shortage, the struggle for equal rights and fair treatment and quality of life, contrasted to the power play of dictatorships and interests of embedded positions.

So ... looking ahead ... a BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54125620) article

Quote
Nearly a third of people should still be working from homes, even when coronavirus restrictions have eased, says the Welsh Government.

[snip]

Deputy Minister for Transport and Economy, Lee Waters [said] "We believe many people will want to continue to work remotely in the longer term and this could be a step-change in the way we work in Wales."

Obvious effect on passenger numbers, long term.   But also on the pattern of when (in the day and week) they travel and where (source and destination) they travel.   The commute in 2022 and the business trip will still be there but a different pattern. The social fabric effects ... let's see ... why live in Pangbourne and keep a second home in Penally when you can live all the time in Penally and make a weekly trip to the office?   Or why live in Reading and not Roche any longer, or Maidenhead rather than Minehead?

For pragmatic / practical purposes, the 2020 holiday was taken in Bournemouth not Bodrum if at all, and that may have been a rediscovery.  In the future, a weekend trip to Barcelona replaced by a weekend trip to Blackpool and a lifetime trip to the Mauritius gives way to a trip to Mallaig, onward to Skye not the Seychelles.  The Costal Del Sol replaced by the Cornish Riviera once again.  Looe not Lisbon, Falmouth not Faro.

Edit (15.9.2020) to add That last sentence sparked a discussion which has been split (at member's requests) into a separate thread at http://www.passenger.chat/24018 on returning to leisure trips and their potential new pattern



Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: ellendune on September 13, 2020, 12:37:51
Obviously the Deputy Minster was looking particularly at Wales where increased homeworking is an opportunity to revitalise the economy of many of the more rural parts of Wales.  However this applies equally to parts of the Rest of the UK. 



Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: Sixty3Closure on September 13, 2020, 23:25:13
Obviously the Deputy Minster was looking particularly at Wales where increased homeworking is an opportunity to revitalise the economy of many of the more rural parts of Wales.  However this applies equally to parts of the Rest of the UK. 


They'll need to come up with a more coherent broadband strategy than they have currently. When I'm in Wales I'm in a rural but not especially remote area and connectivity is a challenge. The traditional copper wire ADSL gets me around 1 MBs if no one else on the cable route is using it as capacity is shared. Initially we were told we couldn't even have a landline.

I've had satellite which ok but expensive and very constrained on data. Now using 4G with an antenna on the roof but that wasn't cheap to install and only recently available. There are various grants but there're not much use if the service isn't there or only meet install but not running costs. I've lost count of the number of rural broadband schemes we've seen most of which fail to deliver. Because of storm damage the phone cables/poles are replaced on a regular basis but Openreach refuse to increase capacity in the boxes or even run fibre along the poles which the engineers tell us is cheaper.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: CyclingSid on September 14, 2020, 19:55:55
In case it hasn't been posted elsewhere; Sir Martin Sorrell thinks the government ought to be doing more to encourage use of public transport.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/sir-martin-sorrell-government-blame-reluctance-return-offices/ (https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/sir-martin-sorrell-government-blame-reluctance-return-offices/)


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: eightonedee on September 14, 2020, 20:45:05
Quote
I shall try to get back on topic in my next post  Grin

Moderators. - is this a thread split moment?

There's a whole subject, namely  - Will Covid 19 lead to a revival of the domestic tourist/holiday industry and what effect might this have on rail travel?

I think there's more to say on this subject......


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: eightonedee on September 14, 2020, 20:49:27
Quote
In case it hasn't been posted elsewhere; Sir Martin Sorrell thinks the government ought to be doing more to encourage use of public transport.

.....and the views expressed by the TUC show exactly why the government will be reluctant to do so. I don't think I would risk being accused of forcing people back to work in potentially unsafe workplaces because some aging advertising executive has sounded off on LBC.


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: grahame on September 15, 2020, 07:49:48
THIS IS an almost-duplicated cross post as I have split "returning to work" from "returning to holiday and leisure trips".  This is the thread about returning to work.

Quote
I shall try to get back on topic in my next post  Grin

Moderators. - is this a thread split moment?

There's a whole subject, namely  - Will Covid 19 lead to a revival of the domestic tourist/holiday industry and what effect might this have on rail travel?

I think there's more to say on this subject......

Oh goodness eightonedee - what a huge challenge you have set!    The subjects of a returning pattern for commuters and a returning pattern for leisure travellers are different but have significant overlap as do may of the posts that are (or were) here.  And the split facility is an "exclusive or" one ... either a post goes into the new topic or stays - doesn't go to both!

I considered simply "flushing" a new, catch-all title through the whole old thread but that would have left us with a mammoth topic including ...
* Changing travel patterns for commuting (journeys to main place of employment)
* Changing travel patterns for holidays (journeys to places to stay for pleasure)
* Changes of travel patterns for other reasons - business meetings, day trips, education ...
and
* the effects of all the pattern changes on public transport provision needed

They intermesh, they are in the same basket.  But there are also significant divergences (such as the effect or weather)

This thread is at http://www.passenger.chat/23947 - COMMUTING to normal place of work
New thread is at http://www.passenger.chat/24018 - GOING ON HOLIDAY
And perhaps others should be started for day trips, and for the combination effect on needed and desired service patterns


Title: Re: Returning to work - but at home, or at the office? Effect on travel
Post by: bradshaw on September 15, 2020, 08:32:12
From this morning?s SWT travel check

06:07 Salisbury to Exeter St Davids due 08:22
Facilities on the 06:07 Salisbury to Exeter St Davids due 08:22.
Service full and standing from Honiton.

Getting back to normal?




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