Great Western Coffee Shop

Split from topic http://www.passenger.chat/23947 - looking at the changing pattern of travel - graham


The only fly in that particular ointment is of course the vagaries of the British weather which is, in the main, what ?did for? the UK domestic holiday market in the first place. Couple that with the relatively short warm holiday season in the UK, which necessitates UK hoteliers to charge high prices to keep their businesses viable all year round, and it will become something of an uphill struggle to return that market to its pre package deal levels on a permanent basis.

Yes, some may find it a novel experience to swap Majorca for Mallaig for one year, and perhaps Seville for Skegness the year after, but by year 3 most will be longing for a bit more sun and a bit less rain, and lower accommodation, food and alcohol prices.

Once we get let out of this country again or, more importantly, let back in again without going into quarantine when we do, I can see foreign holidays making an almost full recovery.

Torbay was packed in July and August; is still busy; but the tourists were all British so they did not bring the virus with them. As soon as people were allowed out of the country to Spain and Greece they brought it back. And let's not talk about the footballers.

It's ironic the wealthiest area Wellswood in Torquay has had a new outbreak.  In March Churston Grammar school, between Paignton and Brixham, was an epicentre with children returning from a skiing holiday in Italy and despite the criticism of the government it was clamped down on straight away.

I'm not so sure, Robin ... I did think of that, but the winters don't seem to be as cold as they used to be and we're getting longer and hotter summers - a trend which will take time to slow and reverse.  Lloret del Mar will become too warm for comfort and the beach at Lossiemouth - long and empty when I was last up there - will be the new "go to" place.

Also take a look at the CO2 cost of getting there should that be reflected into a pounds cost.   And note that by the time global warming has been reversed and is working back out of the system, the embedded businesses that are built on mass long distance travel and accommodation once there will have long since re-factored and will be no longer have protectionist interests (or, rather, those interests will be more in keeping things as they have been in the interim rather than before they were in 2020).

I don't know the answer ... I'm putting an alternative view.

To add a reminder of how our weather has changed ... here is a scene that use to be commonplace ...

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/fnsnow.jpg)

As you say, neither of us really knows and alternative views are available. There are however a number of pints to take into account.

Firstly, the only things that can be actually guaranteed in a UK summer is that the days will be longer then in the winter and the overall average temperature will be higher. The temperature on individual days will vary, sometimes quite widely within any given month.

Secondly, a very important point about perceived temperature is humidity. In the UK it is commonplace for high humidity and high temperatures to arrive together, so as you know it can sometimes be no more than 23 degrees and it feels too hot to go out. This doesn?t necessarily apply in other countries and, from experience, I know that a temperature in the high 30s on the coast in the South African summer can be quite comfortable (best to not stay out in it very long though for other obvious reasons!). And of course, what constitutes too hot and too cold is a subjective matter.

I am not a climate change denier by any means, but when I read ?we?re getting longer and hotter summers? I like to see the evidence. The UK population are very subjective with their memories and those memories also tend tp be short ? I well remember from a few years ago that we had a heatwave for a couple of weeks and then, as usual, it broke down and we had a couple of days rain.  I happened to hear an idiot DJ on the radio on that seco0nd day of rain complaining what a terrible summer we were having!!

So here is my evidence. As a statistical nerd I have been keeping rudimentary weather records for Chippenham for some years, recording the daily maximum temperature and the average cloud cover. I will not display the average cloud cover because that is very subjective and may vary within a few miles. But here are the average temperatures in my neck of the woods since 2012:

 

As you say, neither of us really knows and alternative views are available. There are however a number of pints to take into account. Firstly, the only things that can be actually guaranteed in a UK summer is that the days will be longer then in the winter and the overall average temperature will be higher. The temperature on individual days will vary, sometimes quite widely within any given month. Secondly, a very important point about perceived temperature is humidity. In the UK it is commonplace for high humidity and high temperatures to arrive together, so as you know it can sometimes be no more than 23 degrees and it feels too hot to go out. This doesn?t necessarily apply in other countries and, from experience, I know that a temperature in the high 30s on the coast in the South African summer can be quite comfortable (best to not stay out in it very long though for other obvious reasons!). And of course, what constitutes too hot and too cold is a subjective matter. I am not a climate change denier by any means, but when I read ?we?re getting longer and hotter summers? I like to see the evidence. The UK population are very subjective with their memories and those memories also tend tp be short ? I well remember from a few years ago that we had a heatwave for a couple of weeks and then, as usual, it broke down and we had a couple of days rain.  I happened to hear an idiot DJ on the radio on that seco0nd day of rain complaining what a terrible summer we were having!! So here is my evidence. As a statistical nerd I have been keeping rudimentary weather records for Chippenham for some years, recording the daily maximum temperature and the average cloud cover. I will not display the average cloud cover because that is very subjective and may vary within a few miles. But here are the average temperatures in my neck of the woods since 2012: (https://thumbsnap.com/s/qqSRm4NN.jpg)     So as you can see, global warming may well be a fact but it hasn?t had much effect on the average temperatures in Chippenham just yet! So as you can see, global warming may well be a fact but it hasn?t had much effect on the average temperatures in Lyneham just yet!

The record for such a short period is hardly going to show the important change, which is from 1800 or before to now (though it has accelerated lately). And weather has important variations, some somewhat cyclic, on all timescales less than that, which is what you mostly see in short time series.



I think I might contest that status (and so might Graham)! And in this case, Ive got a longer one than yours. The Met Office's historical data collection includes Oxford (Radcliffe Observatory), and that series of records starts in 1853. I've taken the average of daily maximum temperatures for August, and this is the result as a graph. I've not added lines to link them as it just looks a mess, and the ordering in the short term isn't important here.

Robin ... I suspect you may be playing devil's advocate by trying to draw a conclusion from a statistical colander. The longer term trend is relatively gentle and small under the rollercoaster of big annual ups and downs, but the steady drip, drip of the underlying gentle change becomes significant over the decades, as pointed out by Stuving.   And as I think he's pointing out, if the pattern of temperatures changes too (and we are told of "more extreme events"), then taking the extremity of one extreme each month is measuring that very pattern change and not the general (average) level.   You could have the highest temperature getting higher each year, but that change caused purely by more violent extremes and not because of an overall rise.

I would, of course, not expect Dafyd and Daisy Williams from Briton Ferry, or Kevin and Cynthia McDougall from Airdrie, to study the above carefully before choosing whether to go to Allhallows or Alicante ... but reputations lead and if Allhallows seems like a Haven from the rigours of long distance travel and if its online reviews are 4.6 out of 5 ... it may get the nod.

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/120ytemps.jpg)
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature


 

I completely agree that a dataset from 1853 to date is a lot more informative than one from 2012 to date, and I've no problem with you having a bigger one than me. It's what you do with it that counts... ;)

However, this arose because of Graham's reasoning which seemed to be that, following the COVID pandemic, people's holidaying habits would change, and one of the reasons put forward for that change was that the UK weather is getting wamer. And that appeared to be applying from the last "normal" holiday season (2019) and the next one due in 2021.

Most of us accept that the climate is changing ansd that temperatures are rising worldwide but, as your data shows, this is a very slow and gradual process. My dataset shows that over a 9-year period for one particular point in the UK there has been precious little if any difference in overall average temperatures year on year.

That is what one would expect over so short a time period,and in my view counters Graham's suggestion of "the weather getting warmer" as a reason for countless thousands changing their holidaying habits in 2021 or 2022. Those habits may well change - I won't argue with that - but anyone who bases their decision to change on "more warm weather in Morecambe or wherever next year" is likely to be sadly disappointed.

In a way it is not dissimilar to the essentially meaningless statements we hear from weather forecasters and headline writers. Yesterday the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) weather presenter was telling ihis perhaps uncritical viewers that we had 30 degrees forecast in London today. Then after a pause he added that the last time this happenedin September was 2016. So hardly worthy of a headline, then...

But my favourite misleading weather statment, and one I have had to listen to from as long ago as the 1950s coming from my maidem aunts, runs along the lines of "it was warmer in the UK yesterday than it was in Athens!" OK - fime - perhaps it was - but what about the other 364 days in the year...?

I shall try to get back on topic in my next post  ;D


Late addition - I read Graham's last post at the "preview" stage and I dn't think I need to change any of my reasoning or conclusions as a result


Edit: VickiS - Clarifying Acronyms

THIS IS an almost-duplicated cross post as I have split "returning to work" from "returning to holiday and leisure trips".  This is the thread about returning to holidays and leisure trips.


Oh goodness eightonedee - what a huge challenge you have set!    The subjects of a returning pattern for commuters and a returning pattern for leisure travellers are different but have significant overlap as do may of the posts that are (or were) here.  And the split facility is an "exclusive or" one ... either a post goes into the new topic or stays - doesn't go to both!

I considered simply "flushing" a new, catch-all title through the whole old thread but that would have left us with a mammoth topic including ...
* Changing travel patterns for commuting (journeys to main place of employment)
* Changing travel patterns for holidays (journeys to places to stay for pleasure)
* Changes of travel patterns for other reasons - business meetings, day trips, education ...
and
* the effects of all the pattern changes on public transport provision needed

They intermesh, they are in the same basket.  But there are also significant divergences (such as the effect or weather)

Old thread is at http://www.passenger.chat/23947 - COMMUTING to normal place of work
This new thread is at http://www.passenger.chat/24018 - GOING ON HOLIDAY
And perhaps others should be started for day trips, and for the combination effect on needed and desired service patterns

I remember in my youth going on holiday to St Leonards, to Minehead, to Barmouth by train ... to the far north of Scotland taking my moped on the train as far as Inverness, and by motorail to Perth for the Cairngorms and Western Highlands.  Perhaps my glasses are rosy tinted ones, but with a few exceptions the memories are good ones; I do remember the midges and almost none-stop rain when we stayed at the head of Loch Duich (and looking at a map later learned it's the wettest place in the British Isles!) but for the most part it was pretty good weather. 

Marriage and children switched holiday travel to the car, and business trips where total travel time time (from Harpenden, Caddington, Easterton and Melksham) was of the essence and lots of heavy equipment had to be taken meant I hardly travelled on a train for 25 years, and for a further 10 years train travel remained only occasional - the equipment getting lighter, but the journey to my nearest usable railhead a messy one, typically involving a car anyway. 

Cheap flights, quick airport procedures, good value at destinations, business overseas and lots of exciting things to do took me / us to different countries - France, Italy, Switzerland, Austria and the USA for pleasure (and, sure, Naples [Florida] and Cap D'Agde [Med]) had nicer weather.  To Western Europe, Scandinavia, and further afield - Canada, USA, Mexico, Slovenia and Saudi Arabia on business.

But my comparison, and I suspect that of many people, looks back a number of decades.  Robin's timeline of the last decade showing climate change over the 10 years is interesting, but people trying a UK holiday this year won't be making his recent comparison and will be looking at other factors too for subsequent years.   They'll see flights getting more expensive, airport procedures ever more complex, and destination value no longer a bargain. They may risk having to isolate at home for 2 weeks when they get back from abroad too. And they'll find that the UK weather is perhaps marginally "better" than it was at the turn of the century, boarding houses where you had to queue for the loo/bathroom replaced by accommodation en-suite, and for those who use it, public (rail) transport for the most part improved beyond all measure in frequency and in journey time. We could (probably will) argue cost, comfort and on-train catering.

So - where am I headed?

Are people trying UK holidays for the first time in a generation?  If so, what are they finding, and will they on balance like it and continue to holiday largely in the UK even as and when and if they have a practical choice again?  Why put yourself through all the hassle (much more hassle for some than others) just for "fun"?

I actually agree with much of what Graham says but I feel he may be over-egging the pudding regarding UK holidays and perhaps overstating the drawbacks of foreign ones. I accept that there will be a lot of devil?s advocacy coming, but I feel it is important to get some things in context. It also may be worthwhile to look back at how things were 50-odd years ago when there still was a large domestic holiday industry.

It is a matter of fact that the south of the UK is generally warmer than the north. This is nothing to do with climate change but more to do with latitude and prevailing weather systems. The northern resorts such as Blackpool, Scarborough and so on certainly had a tourist trade, but a look at railway timetables from the 1960s, especially for Blackpool and Morecambe, shows summer Saturday extras running from Scotland (mainly Glasgow). It might be no more than coincidence, but I did wonder then and I still wonder now whether those resorts were about as far south as some could afford to go, hence their popularity with those from further north. They were also of course popular with people from the industrial and mill towns of Lancashire and Yorkshire. Travel affordability may also have been a factor there, but another was relative proximity. I will come back to proximity later.

In those days you rarely heard a Cockney accent in Blackpool or Scarborough ? they were all in Margate, Brighton or Southend...

I worked on the railway in the 1970s when overnight holiday trains still ran. The Newcastle to Paignton; the Manchester to Newquay; trains that took their holidaymakers down overnight on Friday, and took them back again on Saturday afternoon a week or two later. They were long journeys, up to 11 hours, and in a standard of comfort that you would expect today in economy class on a long haul flight (ie not much). I doubt that there are many who look back on those journeys with rose-tinted glasses but, in any case, widespread overnight travel on UK railways is a thing of the past so that option isn?t available anyway.

One thing that aviation has done is to change the perception of proximity, as indeed the railways themselves did now nearly 200years ago. It is now possible, for example, for a family in Consett to drive to Newcastle or Teesside airport, be at the airport for the recommended two hours before departure to go through the formalities, fly to Alicante and be bussed to their hotels; all in less time than it would have taken their grandparents Newcastle to Newcastle to Newquay train to get to Taunton, And matters like these need factoring in to the equation.

I feel the two main disincentives to air travel at the moment are high fares and potential for quarantine. The fares issue will resolve itself as demand, and therefore supply, begins to recover to something like former levels. Quarantine will not be going away until the risk of infection is close to being eradicated, either through vaccine or herd immunity. But even there, some members of society will be more affected by it than others. It may not be too onerous, for example, for the retired or some people who work from home

I expect a gradual shift towards holidays in the UK.
In the near term, the present pandemic and consequent quarantine restrictions are clearly a reason to favour holidays within the UK.
In the longer term I expect other factors to drive a move away from overseas holidays and towards UK holidays, including;

Concerns regarding climate change, a minority will probably wish to minimise flying for moral reasons. Flying might also become more expensive.

Direct effects of climate change, relatively small initially, but as the UK warms this will increases the chances of warm and sunny weather in UK holiday resorts. Meanwhile some popular overseas resorts may change from "nice and sunny" towards "too hot, and also drought ridden"

Increased "hassle factor" in flying. It is only a matter of times until terrorists again hijack aircraft as has happened previously. More security checks, more aggravation and longer check in times.

And finally alcohol and food prices have been mentioned as a DISINCENTIVE to UK holidays. There will be calls to reduce alcohol prices in particular. There might be an admission that drinkers have been overfleeced.
Beer in particular now costs nearly TWENTY times the price I paid when first of drinking age in 1978. Wages have of course increased also, but not to the same extent. Time to reduce beer duty ? "Holiday in the UK ! Enjoy a pint or two of locally brewed beer at the new REDUCED PRICE "

I wouldn't hold your breath.

The Government (rightly) is very unlikely to do anything which is seen as encouraging even more alcohol consumption given the damage and cost already incurred to health & society by boozing - it's the same argument as tobacco duty and always an easy one to justify & slip through an increase. 

Additionally, how would you propose the Government make up the lost revenue? (I might even say, Booooooooooooze gonna pay for it?)  ;)

As suggested, I suspect Robin and I are both taking slightly more extreme views to illustrate our thoughts than we really expect to reflect any stable state outcome.

This is a time of change ... and that makes it a time of opportunity, and of risk.  In our particular travel-by-train to holiday discussion, an opportunity to provide a proportion of people who's families have got out of the habit of holidaying a few hours from home by train with a more sustainable, less hasssled and equally or more enjoyable time ... and a risk of scaring people away by telling people that trains are only for use as a last resort, or the remnant of that scare, and of continue erratically high prices and complexity, and excess gaps in services.

I was in a meeting recently trying to plan conferences for 2021 in the end we decided it was unlikely we could have physical conferences before the autumn of 2021 and even then we would plan it as a hybrid event (virtual and physical). 

Having decided that we started thinking of possible venues for the autumn event. Our normal policy would be to make it easily accessible by public transport, but mindful of a number of company policies on travel at the moment (a number of companies in our sector insist on independent travel by car) we decided that we needed somewhere with ample parking so out of town. To do otherwise might reduce the potential number of people able to attend and question the viability of the event. The venue we will probably choose also has public transport links but is not in walking distance of a station.

Even prior to the Covid crisis, UK pubs and bars were finding themselves in severe difficulties due, to large degree, the tax inflated cost of the drinks they were selling and lower supermarket drinks prices.  Lowering the huge tax duty for pubs, bars and licenced eateries (but not supermarkets etc) could go some way to addressing the problem and provide a stimulus to an important part of the nation's economy which would offset the loss of tax revenue. It also can be argued that drinking relatively cheap supermarket alcohol in at home can be more detrimental to the nation's health than in a communal environment.

Just to be clear the alcohol duty is the same regardless of where it is sold. However, I assume pubs end up paying more in other taxes(?)

So you are looking to reduce alcohol duty in pubs to offset this?

A pint can of beer, 5% alcohol, actual cost as it reaches a shelf, 80p

If that shelf is in a supermarket, 30p markup, 10p beer tax, 24p VAT, sale price 1.44.

If that shelf is being the bar at the Queen's Arms, add cost of staff / service / premises (typically material cost it trippled), so that's 2.40 + 10p beer tax, 50p VAT, and a pint that you'll pay 3 quid for.

Tax - 34p in the supermarket, 60p in the pub.
Service charge 30p in the supermarket, 160p in the pub.

Well I?m not exactly renowned for dragging threads back on topic but I?ll have a go this time  ;D

One thing that crossed my mind is that we have all (me included) missed the fact that not all holidays are of the bucket and spade variety.

Foreign tourists don?t come to the UK for the good weather; they come for other reasons such as sightseeing. They won?t see Buckingham Palace or Windsor Castle or Stratford on Avon in their own countries, so they have to o to where these things are. Similarly if you want to see the leaning tower of Pisa there?s precious little point in going to Winchester.

Whilst some alternatives are available eg if you want to see lakes and mountains there are plenty not far from Windermere, but if you want to see Swiss lakes and mountains then you only have one option of a country to go to. But I?m not too sure that going to see the Archbishop of Westminster is a good enough substitute for going to St Peters Square...

I somehow doubt whether that sort of international tourism is going to be a thing of the past post-COVID

If I were in charge, that is exactly what I would do.
I would reduce the duty on draught* beer, cider and similar drinks, which would also reduce the environmental harm resulting from the careless disposal of cans and bottles.

*To avoid attempts at evasion, "draught" would have be carefully defined, I would suggest the following.
If a product is to benefit from the lower duty rate applicable to draught products, then all the following conditions must be satisfied.
1) The drink must be supplied in reusable containers with a minimum capacity of 40 liters.
2) These containers must be of durable construction and designed to last for at least 200 round trips.
3) If these containers are supplied to anyone other than a licensed bar, then a deposit of at least ?25 must be charged.

Pubs, bars and restaurants, yes. I've heard it suggested before and I think it has sufficient merit to be considered.  Make these establishment more competitive by making the cost of going out to them more affordable.  The social and economic benefits can, off course, be reviewed over time but I can see the merits of at least giving it a go.

I would also reduce the duty charged on beer and cider in standardized, deposit charged, returnable bottles, subject to the following conditions.

1) The bottles must be of a standard type, fully interchangeable between different suppliers.
2) Made of recycled dark colored glass.
3) Only 3 sizes to be permitted, 275ml, 550ml, and 1 liter.
4) These bottles to be supplied in returnable crates, these may coloured as desired but must be a standard design, intended to withstand at least 200 round trips.
5) A deposit of 25 pence for the two smaller sizes, and 50 pence for the larger size, and five pounds per empty crate to be charged.

Given the state of our City Centres on any given Thursday/Friday/Saturday at around midnight, pubs and bars certainly seem to be quite affordable enough.

I'll let others consider the "social and economic benefits", of UK alcohol consumption and whether it should be further encouraged by lower prices -  perhaps the medical profession and the Police would be a good starting point?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/may/15/britons-get-drunk-more-often-than-35-other-nations-survey-finds

- we do not have a cafe society like France or many other countries, the British tend to binge drink, and whilst I enjo y an ale myself, I'm not sure it should be encouraged by the State - I think there are worthier causes for fiscal favouritism.

Fair comment TG although myself and many of my friends and acquaintances would go out to bars and restaurants far more often if it were more affordable without necessarily ending up in a fight or indulging in anti social activity....all of the time. 😁

I would reduce prices as earlier described, but also have a bit more law enforcement.
I doubt that my proposed reductions in prices of draught and SOME bottled beer would make the herds of young drunks much worse. I think that they mainly drink spirits and trendy imported bottled beers. Neither would be reduced in price under my proposals.
Neither would port.

For the foreseeable future, there will be a demand for overseas holidays for the reasons given of visiting historic places or hoping  to see a particular person.

However a lot of holidays are primarily for sun, sea, sand and booze. Such breaks COULD be taken in the UK and some more  WOULD be taken in the UK if travel was easier, and refreshment was cheaper.

Rail travel is seen as hugely complicated, and very expensive. Look at some of the threads on this forum regarding the validity or not of certain tickets.
No such complications for a package holiday to Spain. Advertised at a certain price, pay this price and off you go.
Split ticketing ? not needed.

Well, a year now since my last train travel, seems an odd thing to do now, like going to a pub, today I went inside a chip shop for the first time since face coverings were required!
there are some places I would like to go on paper, but still have doughts about mixing with strangers.

Sorry I'm late. If you can't afford a drink, you're just not thirsty enough.


I did go into a pub for dinner with the family during the "Eat out to help spread out phase, but public transport has managed without me for a year. It's going to be odd.

Her Majesty's Government (HMG), have recently announced the availability of grants to coastal towns, in order to encourage tourism within the UK.
The minor sounding measure of permitting marquees etc in pub gardens for longer than 28 days will be helpful, as will be the crackdown on dodgy and borderline illegal parking firms.

For reasons already given, UK holidays are not to everyones taste, but these measures will hopefully encourage a bit more use of UK holiday resorts.

The message is to be that the "UK IS OPEN FOR HOLIDAYS" Soon even if not just yet.

Hopefully "the railway" will play its part by running a full service of full length trains to holday resorts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56461675 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56461675)


Edit:VickiS - Clarifying Acronym

Yes indeed.  It comes as a great relief that Cornwall now has the capacity for the 30-minute frequency of service on the main line west of Plymouth.  That could be very important if the worsening situation in mainland Europe keeps people holidaying within the UK for at least part of the summer.

IIRC there were adjustments to the IET diagrams last summer to provide more full-length trains when it was at its busiest in Cornwall, and that might need to happen again this summer and perhaps be developed further.

Needs to work as advertised 7 days a week though, irrespective of BBQs etc on Sundays - there will likely be even more scrutiny this year and if the railway wishes to be taken seriously as an alternative to the M5 and A38 as a means of getting to the Westcountry, particularly the far South West, we can't have Sundays where 50% of long distance services are cancelled again because of "staff shortages".

A lot of people have lost faith for this reason, it's up to GWR to restore it - could be an opportunity for them.

Absolutely.  Let’s hope we have availability of crews like we did last summer when there were only three posts on the train crew shortage thread covering the whole of summer and early autumn.

Sadly it will be more of a challenge as very little training and route learning for drivers has been able to be undertaken and that will take its toll eventually.

Agree, with TG.
 I have a rather cynical fear that much of the economy will re-open (pubs, restaurants, hotels, tourist attractions in general) but that the railways will remain in "covid mode" for a year or two.

"We are working towards increasing services, but it will take time"
"We are short of rolling stock due to covid delayed maintenance"

And of course the inevitable staff shortages can be blamed on covid, for some years.

And let us remember that FGW, later GWR had a very poor record of coping with holiday traffic long before the pandemic.
The new shorter trains  flexible train lengths wont help.

With the coronavirus still rampant in many other countries, the government have announced that fines of up to £5,000 can be imposed for prohibited overseas travel.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56493002 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56493002)

That is about the strongest indication possible that demand for holidays within the UK will be substantial.
I hope that someone has told the TOCs that they need to prepare for increased demand.

And not JUST the railway industry.
Prepare for shortages of ice cream, beer, fish n chips and other holiday related consumables.
There is already reportedly a shortage of garden furniture.
And propane is in short supply.

All the items mentioned can be obtained at short notice.

Its the staffing I think will be more of problem.

Is there any word on how stocks of charcoal, burgers and sausages are looking for the BBQ season?  ;)

The irony of course is that, over here in Plagueland, the one thing we are not short of is Fish n Chips... (http://bradleysfishandchips.com/) ;D

That looks very tasty, and extremely tempting. It might be worth getting a ferry over, and paying a people smuggler to get back home.

I wouldn't blame you in the slightest, TonyK. With the curfew having recently been moved from 6pm to 7pm, they have reinstated the Wednesday evening Callac session, and I will be partakimg myself tonight!

Charcoal is in short supply, as is the propane used by gas barbecues. Not aware of any lack of burgers, sausagesor other barbecue foods.

Charcoal is not in short supply.  In our warehouse, I have vast amounts of it - clogging up the aisles.  ::)

And LPG was in short supply in December through March, coinciding with the northern hemisphere winter which was particularly harsh in North America. Supply issues are easing and its unlikely that shortages will continue into the UK barbecue season. Said season usually only lasts for a few days in August anyway!

Would your employer be getting carbon credits for this pilot carbon capture and storage scheme?

(Search "biochar" if puzzled)

looks like the holiday parks are gearing up for a bumper season, been delivering pallets of televisions, more later this week, to our clients just east of Bournemouth, thinking about it, if, as I expect France gets red listed for travel, we could be gridlocked and jam packed public transport, in Dorset and the west country in general over the spring and summer.

Glad to hear that, perhaps the shortage that I observed was purely local.
A neighbour wanted a bulk supply to re-sell via a farm shop/campsite shop and had trouble obtaining this.

A couple of hours of sunshine over the bank holiday will see it cleaned out.

The RMT have renewed their annual charcoal contract in the GWR area - guaranteed deliveries first thing Sunday morning June-September!  :)

I hope that proper care is taken to avoid risk of fire. LARGE piles of charcoal make me rather nervous. It is liable to self heat and then to catch fire, if in large volumes.

As a minimum precaution, in the case of bagged charcoal stacked on pallets, I would urge a daily check for any heating.
Remove a few bags from the top of the pile, and insert ones hand into about the middle of the pile.
If it has heated to blood heat be concerned, if too hot to touch then urgent action is required.

If at blood heat, move the bags and put them on a concrete floor spaced well apart. Feel each bag, and any that are hot rather than warm should be placed in a metal container and taken outdoors.

If any part of a stack is to hot to touch, take the lot outdoors with a pallet truck.

If stored charcoal is smoking or emitting a burning smell then don't disturb it but call the fire brigade.

BTW, several fires on cargo ships have been blamed on bulk charcoal.

Small amounts as used domestically are unlikely to be dangerous, but avoid stacking multiple bags touching each other.

Thank you for your concern, broadgage!  :D

However, I can assure you that those various bags of charcoal are indeed spread out quite thinly within the warehouse - hence they are 'clogging up the aisles'.  ::)

And, if you have to work in our warehouse, the ability to 'self heat' is actually a very useful attribute.  Apparently, someone in Head Office closed down our heating system remotely, to save costs, and we apparently have no way of overriding that locally.   :o

Time has passed and much of the economy HAS reopened, pubs, bars, restaurants and tourist attractions in general, with the remaining restrictions expected to be relaxed shortly.

GWR HAVE remained in "covid mode" as I cynically expected, whilst much of the wider economy reopened. The recent timetable change has continued with the reduced services introduced in response to the pandemic.

The fact that this reduced timetable requires fewer IETs is of course purely co-incidental. Perhaps "covid mode" could be retained for a year or two, until the IETs are fixed.

With the exception of Paddington to Bedwyn, which GWR routes don’t have an adequate frequency or capacity of service to deal with current and future demand since the timetable change in your opinion?

The TransWilts has needed an hourly fequency for some time now, and future demand - Melksham alone is projected to double its current population - will require at least that and more.

Well, that didn't happen...

I expect that warm weather or bank holidays, or the summer holiday season in general will find services to/from west country holiday resorts to be inadequate.

This is how summer travel was dissuaded in 1943

That's a rather woolly answer.  OK, so let me frame the question differently.  What aspect(s) of the west country holiday resorts timetables are still in "covid mode"?

Primarily the ones that are 5 car instead of 9 car or 5+5

Or brought up to date

"There isn't even a cracked IET to spare for non essential journeys this summer. Stay home"

Here's the situation today with a list of trains from Penzance to Paddington and their formations.  Which ones used to be 9 car or 5+5 but are now 5 car?

Up services:
1A73 05:05 PNZ-PAD - 5-car to Plymouth, 10-car beyond to Paddington
1A76 06:06 PNZ-PAD - 9-car
1A78 07:10 PNZ-PAD - 5-car to Plymouth, 10-car beyond to Paddington
1A80 08:15 PNZ-PAD - 9-car
1A82 09:10 PNZ-PAD - 9-car
1A84 10:15 PNZ-PAD - 9-car
1A88 12:15 PNZ-PAD - 9-car
1A92 14:15 PNZ-PAD - 10-car throughout
1A96 16:15 PNZ-PAD - 9-car
1A39 17:45 PNZ-PAD - 9-car

Down services:
1C60 06:37 PAD-PNZ - 9-car
1C72 08:04 PAD-PNZ - 10-car throughout
1C76 10:04 PAD-PNZ - 9-car
1C80 12:04 PAD-PNZ - 9-car
1C82 13:04 PAD-PNZ - 10-car to Plymouth, 5-car beyond Plymouth
1C84 14:04 PAD-PNZ - 9-car
1C86 15:04 PAD-PNZ - 9-car
1C88 16:04 PAD-PNZ - 9-car
1C90 17:04 PAD-PNZ - 9-car
1C92 18:04 PAD-PNZ - 9-car

A potential sign of things to come...... I travelled from Totnes to Exeter St Davids in the late afternoon of last Sunday (15th May) on a Penzance to Paddington service. A 5-car turned up and pretty much every socially distanced seat was taken up with plenty of couples sat together as well.

Half Term in ten days time should prove interesting.

I am not convinced that todays good performance will be typical of the next couple of months.

And do you stand by all of your comments including the allegation GWR are in widespread “COVID mode” still, though subsequently only referencing WoE services, despite all the evidence* I’ve given you today?

* The vast majority of services on all routes are running to pre-COVID Dec ‘19 timetable, especially within Cornwall where the 30-minute internal service is still running and all IET’s AFAICT are booked the same length as they were previously (in fact I have a suspicion there are more 9/10-cars reaching Penzance).

I would refer you to the list posted by Grahame in the main IET thread that lists the services not running, but not counted as cancelled because they are not in the post covid timetable.
Another post in the main IET thread refers to the reduced number of IETs required to operate the present timetable, as compared to the pre-covid time table.

Oh dear! As I tried to explain on that thread, as Graham admitted himself, his list was a tongue-in-cheek and very little of it represents what’s actually running from this week.

I expect you were so busy trying to shove your round crystal ball through a square hole that you didn’t notice.

For example DMU shuttles are no longer running on both the north and south Cotswold lines.  That only happened during the nine days of major disruption when the IET fleet was largely grounded.  That’s the major disruption you predicted would last until at least the end of the year.  There was also a prediction from you that passengers and the RMT would boycott any plans to bring the trains back in service which was clearly wrong.

And surely nobody could seriously suggest a 4tph service between Bristol and London is necessary at the moment, and of course it hadn’t been introduced anyway before the pandemic struck.
.

You just beat me to it. That would be ludicrous over-provision at the moment, and I suspect for many months yet. How many units does that save on its own? I'm guessing at least 7, possibly 8 diagrams.

About 80 short formations yesterday.
About 40 short formations today.

Looks a bit like "covid mode" to me.
And the weather has been largely cool, wet and windy.
A similar level of short formations, and the odd cancellation will be a much more serious problem if the weather improves for the bank holiday weekend and half term holidays.

You seem to have changed your definition of ‘COVID mode’ from your original post, but, yes, when it gets busier in summertime it will be very important to keep any short formations to a minimum on the key tourist routes, and hopefully staff availability won’t lead to many cancellations.