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All across the Great Western territory => Fare's Fair => Topic started by: grahame on December 16, 2020, 00:56:44



Title: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on December 16, 2020, 00:56:44
From the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55323345) and other outlets - looks like it was a press embargo until midnight

Quote
Rail fares will rise more than expected next year - although the new inflation-busting 2.6% increase is being delayed until 1 March.

Regulated fares were expected to increase by 1.6% in January, as successive governments linked annual rises to July's RPI inflation rate.

Rail minister Chris Heaton-Harris said the rise reflected "unprecedented taxpayer support" for rail this year.

But unions said the rise was "plain daft" and would deter travellers.

An average increase of 2.6% across all fares will still be the lowest since 2017.

Until 28 February season tickets holders can renew at existing prices and the cost of daily fares will stay the same.

Rail travel has been badly hit during the coronavirus crisis, and Mr Heaton-Harris said delaying the price rise from January "ensures passengers who need to travel have a better deal this year".

Regulated fares make up about half of fares and include season tickets on most commuter routes. But operators are expected to match their rises for unregulated fares.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on December 16, 2020, 01:02:37
As an FAQ from LBC (https://www.lbc.co.uk/business/cf702a09a02643a3b47237b38c4c5940/)

Quote
- How big is the fare rise?
- What normally determines the figure?
- What's changed?
- Why?
- What about unregulated fares?
- What else is different to normal?
- How much more expensive has train travel become in recent years?
- Where does the money go?
- Is there any way of avoiding the fare rise?
- Any other tips on limiting the cost of train travel?


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on December 16, 2020, 09:34:09
From the Department for Transport at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/rail-fare-rise-to-be-delayed

Management summary box says:

Quote
* rail tickets will remain at 2020 prices until March 1 2021, giving commuters the chance to renew season tickets at old prices

* passengers still advised to reduce number of journeys as much as possible for the time being

* regulated fares to increase by 2.6% in March, the lowest amount in 4 years, ensuring taxpayers are not unfairly overburdened by anticipated investments of around ?10 billion to keep vital services running during pandemic

Follow link for rest of announcement.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on December 16, 2020, 17:35:02
Press Release from Railfuture

Quote
Rail campaigners have condemned the announcement of inflation-busting rail fare increases in March.

"This really isn't going to help bring passengers back to trains" said Chris Page, chairman of the campaign group Railfuture. "This increase will come at a time when people are deciding whether to go back to work 5 days a week.  Indeed there?s even a risk that it will result in even lower revenue for the government, by pricing people off the railways.

"The delay in implementing flexi-seasons will also reduce rail revenue.  They are needed in March when people will be deciding how many days per week to go to the office.  Passengers will vote with their feet and revenue will be less as they travel say 3 days per week with ordinary tickets instead of 4 with a flexi-season.

"The government continues to impose fare rises using RPI instead of CPI, meaning that rail fares have become less and less affordable over the years.  To use RPI+1% is outrageous and completely unjustified. Things aren?t going to get back to near normal until about June at the earliest, so a 2.6% increase won?t generate much cash when there are so few  passengers travelling. It will just annoy the very people the industry needs to be cultivating.

"Meanwhile fuel duty for motorists remains frozen, as it has been for ten years now.

"Rail staff may bear the brunt of this as they are already seen to be Government supported when ordinary passengers are losing their jobs.

and

Quote
Notes to editors:

Government claims it is the "lowest actual increase for four years", which is true in purely numeric terms, but at 1.6 percentage points above CPI (the accepted measure of inflation) you have to go back to January 2013 (last use of RPI+1%) to equal it (4.2% fare increase with preceding July's CPI of 2.6%)

Given that the TOCs have ceased to be businesses and are now merely contractual-interface companies (to avoid the government becoming the employer, client of suppliers etc.) with the government receiving all revenue and paying all costs (apart from the open access operators who only set their own operator-specific fares) we expect that in England the same increase (2.6%) will apply to all fares, not just regulated fares

These increases are often presented as something the government 'caps' whereas fact that the government is actually imposing the rise.

The government has reintroduced the policy from 2003 of RPI+1%, rather do anything to control costs. News articles have referred to CPI as the government's 'preferred' measure. RPI has not been an official government statistic for many years and the government has announced its intention to abolish RPI in 2030 and replace it with CPIH (CP plus housing costs).

The 1 March increase is being presented as being kind to season ticket holders. Whilst welcome, it is likely that this is simply because the government couldn't decide in time for the implementation window for fare changes needed for advance sales.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: Surrey 455 on December 16, 2020, 20:32:23
From the Department for Transport at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/rail-fare-rise-to-be-delayed

Management summary box says:

Quote
* rail tickets will remain at 2020 prices until March 1 2021, giving commuters the chance to renew season tickets at old prices

* passengers still advised to reduce number of journeys as much as possible for the time being

* regulated fares to increase by 2.6% in March, the lowest amount in 4 years, ensuring taxpayers are not unfairly overburdened by anticipated investments of around ?10 billion to keep vital services running during pandemic

Follow link for rest of announcement.

This only seems to benefit commuters whose annual season ticket expires in January or February.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: Sixty3Closure on December 16, 2020, 20:38:16
I suspect many commuters won't be coming back anyway.

My company is planning on continuing to remote work where possible till April at the earliest and I don't think we're the exception so March is probably of limited use.

I think the railfuture quote summed up my thoughts quite nicely and yet again a rail fares increase by much more than my pay rise even if this year was a bit different.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on December 17, 2020, 01:37:55
They say a problem shared is a problem solved! If this is the wrong place to post apologies!

[snip]

The spanner in the works now is I don?t think I?m under the pressure I thought I was to purchase my ticket to Ryde again. However, because of the engineering works in Q1 2021 on the island, is it possible unless I renew now I will not be able to obtain the ticket I desire?!

A good board to post in (we don't really have "right" and "wrong".  However, I'm splitting the thread - so this will have its own thread in a few minutes (edit to add link ... http://www.passenger.chat/24380 ).   That way it will come better to the attention of a couple of members here may know the answer for you.   Personally, I would be no better that offering "educated guess" level answers ... better wait for others.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on December 17, 2020, 15:39:05
Press Release from Railfuture

Quote
Rail campaigners have condemned the announcement of inflation-busting rail fare increases in March.

"This increase will come at a time when people are deciding whether to go back to work 5 days a week."

Hmmm - fancy thinking if they think the commuter will be the one making that choice - it will be the employer undoubtedly, if the commuter wants to retain their job.

Quote
"Passengers will vote with their feet and revenue will be less as they travel say 3 days per week with ordinary tickets instead of 4 with a flexi-season.

I very much doubt that a flexi-season will be worth using for 4 days/week - a normal season will present better value as it will give a better discount for 4 or 5 days. A flexi-season will only be worthwhile at 3 days or less if current offerings (carnets & ticket packs) are a guide.

Quote
"Things aren?t going to get back to near normal until about June at the earliest, so a 2.6% increase won?t generate much cash when there are so few  passengers travelling."

Agreed - they'd raise far more implementing this the following year, in 2021....they may still do so.

Quote
and

Quote
Notes to editors:

...we expect that in England the same increase (2.6%) will apply to all fares, not just regulated fares

Those wishing for full nationalisation - this is likely to be a consequence. You get what you wish for.

Quote
The government has reintroduced the policy from 2003 of RPI+1%,

Hmm - a 'policy' runs for more than a single implementation - I don't think they have a crystal ball? {yes, semantics, but....)

Quote
rather do anything to control costs.
They need to make a suggestion here....

Quote
the government has announced its intention to abolish RPI in 2030 and replace it with CPIH (CP plus housing costs).

No - the *independent* Office for National Statistics has stated that they are dropping the RPI calculation - there's b*gger all the Government can do to retain it after that date.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: didcotdean on December 17, 2020, 16:06:27
From what I can see it is pretty much accepted by economists that the calculation of RPI is broken and has been since around 2010 although there are differences about exactly as to how various technical changes have contributed to this and how this could be fixed if at all (it is typically biased high by up to 1%). The ONS is required to compile this although not as a 'national statistic' primarily as it is hard-wired into index-linked gilts with long maturity dates. Changing the mechanism has been delayed once already as it was thought it would disturb confidence in already sold gilts, although this had been priced in for some time by the market.

The official measure of inflation that gets all the headlines from 2013 is CPI and maybe ought to be the measure used for all ongoing valorisation by now unless there is a contractual reason otherwise. The RMT for one though have opposed its potential use in determining pay rises for its members.

In the end though it wouldn't matter as the increase can be anything the government determines it wants, without reference to any index.




Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on December 17, 2020, 16:48:25
Changing the mechanism has been delayed once already as it was thought it would disturb confidence in already sold gilts, although this had been priced in for some time by the market.

The official measure of inflation that gets all the headlines from 2013 is CPI and maybe ought to be the measure used for all ongoing valorisation by now unless there is a contractual reason otherwise. The RMT for one though have opposed its potential use in determining pay rises for its members.

That is the reason that the ONS can't ditch calculating RPI, yes. But it has given notice to the Government & unions that it won't be calculated after that date in 2030 (the end date on the longest gilt under RPI), so they'll both have to move to CPIH after that date.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on February 05, 2021, 09:36:36
This thread has gone very quiet - no post for 49 days. And yet the fare "revision" with a rise of 2.6% come in in less than 4 weeks.  Tickets may be purchased prior to 1st March for travel on or after that date and will be honoured. I do find myself wondering if the delay by two month and quietness may signal some significant changes to the system, or are simply because of the low passenger numbers at present.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on February 05, 2021, 10:57:10
Very low passenger numbers - minute numbers booking flexible tickets ahead as date of travel likely unknown currently. Of course any Advance fares that may be available don't generally rise in January - but May & September.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on February 24, 2021, 22:38:41
Press release (https://railfuture.org.uk/Press+release+24th+February+2021) from RailFuture

Quote
The usual annual punishment for rail passengers - rail campaigners condemn inflation-busting fare hikes

Monday March 1st sees fare rises of 2.6% kick in across England and Wales. "This is the usual annual punishment for rail passengers, just slightly delayed" said Bruce Williamson from the campaign group Railfuture. "In fact it's worse than that as the government is screwing the public with an extra 1% over and above inflation. As part of the government's announcement of a gradual easing of lockdown, they should be encouraging the public to start using trains again, but instead they're gradually pricing the railways out of existence. It just doesn't make sense to kick the rail industry when it's down.

"Even without the extra 1%, it would still be an inflation-busting increase, because the government continues to base fare rises on RPI, which is a higher measure of inflation than CPI, yet CPI is widely regarded as a more realistic figure.

"We really need to get the economy moving again and get people travelling back to work, but pricing passengers off the railways really isn't going to achieve this. Why are they charging us extra to do the right thing? There are many other jobs which are indirectly supported by rail users in city centres too. The potential knock-on effects are huge if we don't get this right.

"This latest price increase won't generate much cash for the government in itself, but it may have the effect of deterring passengers so much that it actually ends up costing the taxpayer more in the long term."

Notes to editors:

Railfuture is the UK's leading independent organisation campaigning for better rail services for both passengers and freight.

* Government claims it is the "lowest actual increase for four years", which is true in purely numeric terms, but at 1.6 percentage points above CPI (the accepted measure of inflation) you have to go back to January 2013 (last use of RPI+1%) to equal it (4.2% fare increase with preceding July's CPI of 2.6%)

* Given that the TOCs have ceased to be businesses and are now merely contractual-interface companies (to avoid the government becoming the employer, client of suppliers etc.) with the government receiving all revenue and paying all costs (apart from the open access operators who only set their own operator-specific fares) we expect that in England the same increase (2.6%) will apply to all fares, not just regulated fares

* These increases are often presented as something the government 'caps' whereas in reality the government is actually imposing the rise

* The government has reintroduced the policy from 2003 of RPI+1%, rather than do anything to control costs.

* News articles have referred to CPI as the government's 'preferred' measure. RPI has not been an official government statistic for many years and the government has announced its intention to abolish RPI in 2030 and replace it with CPIH (CP plus housing costs)

* The 1 March increase is being presented as being kind to season ticket holders. Whilst the delay from the normal start of January is welcome, it is likely that this is simply because the government couldn't decide in time for the implementation window for fare changes needed for advance sales

* The International Energy Authority comments "Rail is one of the most energy-efficient transport modes, responsible for 9% of global motorised passenger movement and 7% of freight but only 3% of transport energy use." (https://www.iea.org/reports/rail)PIH (CP plus housing costs)


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on February 25, 2021, 11:21:36
1% above RPI *will* produce a fair whack for the Treasury. even when the rise is limited to the usual fares that are contained within this 'basket'.

They missed the likely (yet again - it's been a decade since the last rise!) freeze in road fuel duty, which to me is far more effective than banging on about RPI v CPI, when it's well known now that many costs on the railway are affected by RPI% (like staff costs) and one needs to bang on about sorting that whole problem out....they won't of course, because the unions won't like it.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: IndustryInsider on February 25, 2021, 11:26:50
They missed the likely (yet again - it's been a decade since the last rise!) freeze in road fuel duty, which to me is far more effective than banging on about RPI v CPI, when it's well known now that many costs on the railway are affected by RPI% (like staff costs) and one needs to bang on about sorting that whole problem out....they won't of course, because the unions won't like it.

Though with the DfT holding all the cards at the moment, there's arguably never been, and never going to be, a better chance to sort that whole problem out.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on February 25, 2021, 13:20:40
Though with the DfT holding all the cards at the moment, there's arguably never been, and never going to be, a better chance to sort that whole problem out.

Totally agreed.  And there's icing on that cake in that passenger numbers are so low at the moment; on any restructure there will be winners and losers - but far, far fewer losers that there would be at normal traffic levels.   Golden opportunity to restructure fares.  Let's see what happens next Monday.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on February 25, 2021, 14:52:16
The Williams Review has been revised with the demise of franchising & has been now formed into a Government White Paper and will be released as soon as the Govt find a suitable release date according to Chris Heaton-Harris and Mr Williams himself - both talking this morning at the Rail Recovery conference.

There is still a chance to register & all content will be available to view on demand from Monday 1st March at http://nationalrailrecovery.com (http://nationalrailrecovery.com) 


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 01, 2021, 08:07:57
Though with the DfT holding all the cards at the moment, there's arguably never been, and never going to be, a better chance to sort that whole problem out.

Totally agreed.  And there's icing on that cake in that passenger numbers are so low at the moment; on any restructure there will be winners and losers - but far, far fewer losers that there would be at normal traffic levels.   Golden opportunity to restructure fares.  Let's see what happens next Monday.

Well - I am doing an update for the Melksham Rail User Group fare pages (which are via http://www.mrug.org.uk ) and seeing nothing but a blanket 2.6% increase rounded to the nearest 10p.  Detail at http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/24729 - please follow up if I have missed something significant!


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on March 01, 2021, 08:33:04
I’ve seen reference to ‘average’ rise of 2.4%, so there ought to be some that are lower, but I guess they may not be in your local area.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 01, 2021, 08:58:26
I’ve seen reference to ‘average’ rise of 2.4%, so there ought to be some that are lower, but I guess they may not be in your local area.

Evidence suggests that there is a notional (accurate) fare somewhere deep in the system which is rounded to the nearest 10p as fares to be paid are set. The notional increase is (I will give you) 2.4%, but then depending on how the rounding works that gives you a spray of fares.  Take:

Fares 2020 and 2021, Melksham to Bristol Temple Meads
Anytime single, £11.50 now £11.80 (2.6%)
Anytime day return, £12.40 now £12.70 (2.4%)
Off Peak day return, also £12.40 now £12.60 (1.6%)

If the accurate Off Peak Day return fare was 12.351 but rounded to 12.40, the new fare would be 12.646 but rounded to 12.60. And if the accurate Anytime day return fare was 12.419 but rounded to 12.40, the new fare would be 12.717 but rounded to 12.70.

The increase fro £91 to £93.40 on an anytime Melksham to London single is 2.64% - very close to the 2.6% headline; as one would expect the 10p granularity at the price level is much less distorting.  Since the return fare is simply twice the single, no point in looking at that as a separate model, and the granularity there is 20p not 10p.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 01, 2021, 09:05:35
Muted coverage of the rises at the time they happen so far this year, but the shouts may come later in the day
* No big build up with information released in advance
* Lots of other news around (no looking to fill news feeds in early January)
* Very few people travelling especially 5 days a week - season ticket prices not all that relevant at the moment
* Repeating story for the most part with no structural change or anything interesting to report

From The Guardian (https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/01/rail-fares-to-rise-by-26-in-england-and-wales)

Quote
Rail fares in England and Wales will increase by 2.6% on Monday, the first time the government has chosen to put up prices above RPI inflation since 2013, in a move that has been criticised for further pricing middle income earners out of rail travel and undermining the government’s green credentials.

The price rise comes despite calls for freezes or even discounts to help attract passengers back to the railways.

The government said the additional 1% rise above inflation came on the back of extraordinary public spending to prop up rail services during the pandemic when revenues fell away.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 01, 2021, 09:43:53
Looks like some journalists "caught short" without the usual pre-release  ;D

From The Argus (https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/19125432.brighton-london-season-ticket-hit-inflation-fare-rise/)

Quote
Examples of the potential fare hikes include a Brighton-London annual season ticket going up by £129 to £5,109 and a Manchester-Glasgow off-peak return rising by £2.30 to £90.60.

Exact prices will be released today.

For the record - the £90.60 was a correct guess.  Brighton to London season actually £5108 (that's any operator, London Terminals)


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: Lee on March 01, 2021, 10:24:07
Oh god here we go again, Fares are really my achilles heel. I hate days like this when they dominate, that's why grahame always did the fare responses in Save The Train days - He's always loved the complexities  ;D

Give me a nice easy Network Rail Business Plan any day!


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 01, 2021, 10:52:42
Oh god here we go again, Fares are really my achilles heel. I hate days like this when they dominate, that's why grahame always did the fare responses in Save The Train days - He's always loved the complexities  ;D

Give me a nice easy Network Rail Business Plan any day!

Apart from fares rising 1% above the higher and disputed inflation measure, no real news, Lee, so I suspect today more of a splutter than a big story. Plenty else in the news.

Sad day, really - it was a really good opportunity - perhaps THE golden opportunity - to innovate and to look forward for the green aganda, rather than push prices up and justify it based on all te recent support given to the rail industry during coronavirus - I suspect the increase brought in will just be a tiny pebble of money in the great lake of cash spent.

What has been missed as far as I can see is anything from:
* Bus and train interchangability of tickets
* Part time season tickets
* Uniform all day fares as there is now no "peak" or "off peak" in real travel life
* Always provision of any "any permitted" routing, which always includes "next available arrival"
* Carnets
* A loyalty card - a new name for a railcard available to anyone
* Trains included like buses on ENCTS cards
* Free "I travelled by train" badge for all customers to help advertise rail more widely
... perhaps all or most are in "too difficult" but if it's too difficult in the current circumstances where we are at a low and about to restart afresh, it will always be too difficult!


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on March 01, 2021, 11:07:18
Part-time seasons were mentioned as 'forthcoming' in media interviews/pieces over the weekend. Not sure any of the others are yet on the DfT radar, except there has been comment that further discounts or savings that cost the rail industry a drop in fare boxes are out of the question in the near future "Do you know how much we have pumped in to rail already to keep it going?"


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 01, 2021, 11:34:28
"Do you know how much we have pumped in to rail already to keep it going?"

Have you asked the person you are quoting "Do you know how many more people would try the train is you were to offer even a small olive branch of some better fares, and whether as a result that might produce a net increase in firebox revenue from seats that are otherwise going empty and earning you nothing at all?"


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on March 01, 2021, 11:39:59
Until they lift the medical warning not to use public transport there is very little point....


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: Ralph Ayres on March 02, 2021, 12:22:47
Have you asked the person you are quoting "Do you know how many more people would try the train is you were to offer even a small olive branch of some better fares, and whether as a result that might produce a net increase in firebox revenue from seats that are otherwise going empty and earning you nothing at all?"

That's called elasticity.  It's actually the whole principle by which the TOCs set the fares that aren't fiercely regulated by the DfT and means you can get some bargains. Trouble is it works both ways, so if overall they will get more revenue from fewer people paying more then they will do that.  Offer the better fare to fill the empty seats and the people who would have paid more will buy the cheaper tickets too unless you come up with the complicated rules we now have for many tickets to limit their attractiveness.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: TaplowGreen on March 02, 2021, 17:46:54
I’ve seen reference to ‘average’ rise of 2.4%, so there ought to be some that are lower, but I guess they may not be in your local area.



The increase fro £91 to £93.40 on an anytime Melksham to London single is 2.64% - very close to the 2.6% headline; as one would expect the 10p granularity at the price level is much less distorting.  Since the return fare is simply twice the single, no point in looking at that as a separate model, and the granularity there is 20p not 10p.

£186.80 for a return from Melksham to London?  :o


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 02, 2021, 18:22:20
£186.80 for a return from Melksham to London?  :o

About the same distance ... Honeybourne to London ... £86.60 and , no, I have not missed a "1" off that - it really is just over £100 cheaper.

There are PLENTY of lower price Melksham to London options - see http://www.mrug.org.uk/londonfares.html where I need to update the page to add that 2.6% or so. There are also higher prices if the train times via Swindon don't suite and you go via Westbury instead.   The shock headline there is £214.20 ...

Annual season ticket (via Swindon £10,580) which the National Rail website tells me works out at £22.80 per journey (so that would be £45.60 per return trip).  For a week it is £29.77 per journey.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: broadgage on March 03, 2021, 18:17:46
In todays budget, the planned increase in road fuel duty was dropped, as has happened previously.

The government regularly speak of the need to green the economy, yet every year rail travel becomes more expensive, whilst road transport becomes cheaper.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on March 03, 2021, 20:22:48
That’s now a decade that fuel duty has been held without rising!


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: CyclingSid on March 04, 2021, 06:44:56
Quote
the planned increase in road fuel duty was dropped

In my simplistic view of things I would have thought now would have been a good time to increase road fuel duty, to nudge drivers towards the greener alternatives that are supposed to happen by the end of the decade. Or is that another agreement that will be dropped?


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 04, 2021, 06:46:25
That’s now a decade that fuel duty has been held without rising!

Average (petrol) cost 119p / litre
I've seen quote that duty + VAT add up to 60% of (petrol) fuel costs.
Prices in general have gone up by 31% in the last 10 years
A typical car burns 7 litres per 100 km
The average car is driven 7400 miles per year. x 8 / 5 to get kms
There are 33 million cars on the road

>>> 119 * .6
71.39999999999999
>>> 72 * .31
22.32
>>> 22.32 * 7
156.24
>>> 74 * 8 / 5 *156.24
18498.816000000003
>>> 185 * 33000000
6105000000
>>>

So (at current rates) just over 6 billion pounds per annum is reduced off what the income would have been from fuel duty and VAT compared to what it would have been if these taxes had been inflation linked.  Put another way, if you're an average petrol car driver, you're saving £185 pounds per year.

Figures are, or course, very roughly calculated indeed ...


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ChrisB on March 04, 2021, 10:36:53
Prices in general have gone up by 31% in the last 10 years

Maybe, but fuel hasn't....

Quote
2011: petrol 133.65p, diesel 138.94p.

Actually dropped in price by nearly 10p/litre



Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 04, 2021, 10:55:27
Prices in general have gone up by 31% in the last 10 years

Maybe, but fuel hasn't....


Indeed - that's very much in confirmation of the analysis.  Fuel prices have been held down to some extent (the majority, as most of the price is tax) by tax policy and tax not rising in line with inflation.  We could have a real 'game' here playing with stats by the conclusions will almost inevitably be **1 that billions of pounds that the exchequer could be collecting from the motorist are not being collected, **2 that government policy has helped in no short measure in making driving private cars with fossil fuel engines more attractive in real terms compared to ten years ago, and **3 that the signal given by the freezing of duty is that government support for zero carbon is patchy at best.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: broadgage on March 04, 2021, 18:39:04
And of course quoted fuel prices are genuinely representative, being the average price actually paid at a number of filling stations.
Train fares are arguably less representative since they only include the regulated fares. Actual fares have increased by greater percentages in many cases.
Examples include  altering the boundary between peak and off peak fares such that more peak fares are paid.
And increasing unregulated first class fares by a lot more than the average.

There is also a general view that trains have in many cases got worse, with worse overcrowding, reduced reliability and inferior on board facilities.

Cars on the other hand have got cheaper and better specified, AS WELL as using cheaper fuel.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: IndustryInsider on March 04, 2021, 19:28:20
I don’t disagree with some of Broadgage’s points, but it should also be said that Advance purchase tickets becoming much more widely available have reduced prices prices in real terms at certain times of the day, and on many routes a more frequent, and in some cases faster, service now operates of course.

On the roads, traffic has generally increased leading to longer and less predictable journeys in many cases, with improvements to the road network only partly compensating.  So, swings and roundabouts in some respects.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: TaplowGreen on March 04, 2021, 21:04:29
Prices in general have gone up by 31% in the last 10 years

Maybe, but fuel hasn't....


Indeed - that's very much in confirmation of the analysis.  Fuel prices have been held down to some extent (the majority, as most of the price is tax) by tax policy and tax not rising in line with inflation.  We could have a real 'game' here playing with stats by the conclusions will almost inevitably be **1 that billions of pounds that the exchequer could be collecting from the motorist are not being collected, **2 that government policy has helped in no short measure in making driving private cars with fossil fuel engines more attractive in real terms compared to ten years ago, and **3 that the signal given by the freezing of duty is that government support for zero carbon is patchy at best.

Do you think that the fall in the price of oil may have something to do with cheaper petrol?


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: broadgage on March 05, 2021, 13:52:44
Yes of course falling oil prices are one reason for cheaper petrol, but that should be a reason to increase fuel duty, not to freeze it for years.

In my view road fuel should be increased in price by AT LEAST the same percentage as rail fares.
If we are serious about the climate emergency, then petrol/diesel should increase in price at a greater rate than train fares.

We cant end road transport overnight, but a start could be made by increasing fuel duty.

More expensive fuel also improves road safety, as drivers tend to slow down to save fuel.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: TaplowGreen on March 05, 2021, 22:39:51
Yes of course falling oil prices are one reason for cheaper petrol, but that should be a reason to increase fuel duty, not to freeze it for years.

In my view road fuel should be increased in price by AT LEAST the same percentage as rail fares.
If we are serious about the climate emergency, then petrol/diesel should increase in price at a greater rate than train fares.

We cant end road transport overnight, but a start could be made by increasing fuel duty.

More expensive fuel also improves road safety, as drivers tend to slow down to save fuel.

Fuel duty is hugely inflationary as most goods are transported through road haulage, so raising it would have a big impact on everyone including (disproportionately) the poorest.

Given where we are just now, not in your future fantasy world where road transport has been ended,do you really think that's such a good idea?




Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: broadgage on March 06, 2021, 00:43:39
The government needs to raise money to pay for public expenditure in general, and for the costs of the pandemic in particular.
I would consider fuel taxes to be preferable to alternatives such as an increase in the VAT rate, or in income tax, or other general taxes.
Taxing road fuel would encourage alternatives such as walking, cycling, electric vehicles, buses and railways.

Present and recent past government policies are having the effect of deterring rail travel due to the ever rising cost, and encouraging road transport as it becomes cheaper. Should be the other way around in my view.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: TaplowGreen on March 06, 2021, 08:17:36
The government needs to raise money to pay for public expenditure in general, and for the costs of the pandemic in particular.
I would consider fuel taxes to be preferable to alternatives such as an increase in the VAT rate, or in income tax, or other general taxes.
Taxing road fuel would encourage alternatives such as walking, cycling, electric vehicles, buses and railways.

Present and recent past government policies are having the effect of deterring rail travel due to the ever rising cost, and encouraging road transport as it becomes cheaper. Should be the other way around in my view.

As you seem to have shifted from the need to "green the economy" to a need to raise money to pay for "public expenditure in general", you may wish to consider that the most effective way to do that is via income tax, which is progressive and raises far, far more money very quickly and easily, without being inflationary or unfairly penalising the poor.





Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: broadgage on March 06, 2021, 15:23:28
I have not shifted from a "need to green the economy" but mentioned the general need for HMG to raise revenue as an ADDITIONAL reason to tax road fuel, in addition to taxing a polluting transport choice.

New registrations of petrol or diesel burning cars are to be prohibited in not that many years time, so we should perhaps be discouraging use right now.
I would like to see a relatively modest annual increase in road fuel prices. Perhaps about 2% over the inflation rate. If oil prices fall, then increase the tax such that the retail price rises by about 2%. If oil prices increase moderatly, then impose a smaller tax rise such that the retail price still rises  by about 2%. If oil prices increase greatly, then freeze the tax.

Rail fares by contrast should not in my view increase by more than the inflation rate.
There is a general public perception that rail fares are hugely costly and also very complicated. The actual fare payable is often considered to be a matter of luck rather than being determined by a logical process.

I have previously proposed a great simplification of fares, with only three different fares payable for any particular journey.

I see no merit whatsoever in allowing discounted travel on services known to be overcrowded, simply becuase the ticket was purchased weeks in advance.
I likewise see no merit in charging a punitively high fare for last minute travel on a lightly used service.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: TaplowGreen on March 06, 2021, 16:49:58
I have not shifted from a "need to green the economy" but mentioned the general need for HMG to raise revenue as an ADDITIONAL reason to tax road fuel, in addition to taxing a polluting transport choice.

New registrations of petrol or diesel burning cars are to be prohibited in not that many years time, so we should perhaps be discouraging use right now.
I would like to see a relatively modest annual increase in road fuel prices. Perhaps about 2% over the inflation rate. If oil prices fall, then increase the tax such that the retail price rises by about 2%. If oil prices increase moderatly, then impose a smaller tax rise such that the retail price still rises  by about 2%. If oil prices increase greatly, then freeze the tax.

Rail fares by contrast should not in my view increase by more than the inflation rate.
There is a general public perception that rail fares are hugely costly and also very complicated. The actual fare payable is often considered to be a matter of luck rather than being determined by a logical process.

I have previously proposed a great simplification of fares, with only three different fares payable for any particular journey.

I see no merit whatsoever in allowing discounted travel on services known to be overcrowded, simply becuase the ticket was purchased weeks in advance.
I likewise see no merit in charging a punitively high fare for last minute travel on a lightly used service.

Broadgage do you get the principle that if you discourage someone from buying something by making it more expensive to the point that they reduce or stop, your revenue falls?

Do you also understand that this is not just about cars?

It's about the haulage industry that transports virtually everything we need in this country, and that by increasing their costs you will create inflationary pressure that reduces the purchasing power of money for everyone, including Government but especially affecting the poor on lower and/or fixed incomes?

That was the point of my earlier post, which you have either ignored or perhaps not understood.

Do you understand that our fuel duty on diesel is already way higher than the European average? and that many EU countries even provide rebates to hauliers, which in turn means British hauliers are less competitive?

Do you also realise the effect this has on businesses, and that ultimately people will have less money to spend on (for example) rail journeys?

You seem to like to see things in very one dimensional, black and white terms, whether it's road or air travel (or buffets!) but unfortunately it just ain't that simple.

Perhaps read a bit of Adam Smith with your Port tonight...............and consider how, when you've ended road transport, as is your stated aim, will that bottle of Cockburns get to your local Aldi without it?


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: broadgage on March 06, 2021, 17:48:02
I do not seek the end of road transport, but DO hope to see a reduction in road transport.
One good way of achieving this is to raise the excise duty on road fuel, so as to encourage less use and more prudent use.

In only 9 years time, new registrations of petrol and diesel cars will be prohibited, so time to get used to the idea of driving less perhaps.

And as for road freight, a higher fuel price will slightly increase prices, especially of goods transported for long distances, this will encourage more local production.
All taxes have some downsides, but fuel taxes are in my view a good thing, and no worse than increased VAT which is also inflationary, or increased income taxes which reduce spending power and encourage the export of jobs to lower tax economies.

If we are serious about climate change then we need to drive and fly a lot less.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: TaplowGreen on March 06, 2021, 20:50:34
I do not seek the end of road transport, but DO hope to see a reduction in road transport.
One good way of achieving this is to raise the excise duty on road fuel, so as to encourage less use and more prudent use.

In only 9 years time, new registrations of petrol and diesel cars will be prohibited, so time to get used to the idea of driving less perhaps.

And as for road freight, a higher fuel price will slightly increase prices, especially of goods transported for long distances, this will encourage more local production.
All taxes have some downsides, but fuel taxes are in my view a good thing, and no worse than increased VAT which is also inflationary, or increased income taxes which reduce spending power and encourage the export of jobs to lower tax economies.

If we are serious about climate change then we need to drive and fly a lot less.


VAT is applied after fuel duty, so if you increase fuel duty, you also increase the amount of VAT paid on it.

With respect Broadgage, you clearly have an extremely limited level of knowledge and understanding on this subject, so I'll step back from debating it further with you.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 06, 2021, 21:08:45
Hmmm ... getting very close to getting personal (and I'm not sure if the line is crossed).  Best indeed to move on from a discussion that come at from two places so far apart that they're not meeting in the middle.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: ellendune on March 06, 2021, 21:12:04
To decarbonise our economy we need to reduce the carbon generated by transport which is a large part.

Taxation is a valid approach to this. Increased taxes of fuel would:

a) Shift the economic balance between methods of distribution.  Our present logistics approach is based on the premise that transport is cheap and capital cost of processing plants and warehousing (in buildings and stored goods) is expensive. (Think of the food miles travelled from farm to packaging station, to warehouse to supermarket).  Increasing transport costs will change this balance.  

b) Shift the economic balance between modes of transport potentially from road to rail which is more fuel efficient and can be decarbonised more easily by electrification.  

In the short term changes will increase costs and even after the structural change they may do to some lesser extent in the longer term, but then climate change impacts will be very expensive.  

Broadgage may not have explained it well, but he is I believe on the right track.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: stuving on March 07, 2021, 00:48:08
The Public Accounts Committee published a report yesterday on "Achieving Net Zero" (https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/4921/documents/49419/default/), while contains a long list of things the government isn't doing to get the country from where it is now to the legally defined endpoint in 2050. All of that is relevant to the discussion here, and the section on "engaging with the general public" especially so. It starts with:
Quote
18. Achieving net zero will depend on people changing their habits and lifestyles, adopting new technologies, and in some cases big personal investments. For example, buying zero-emission vehicles, such as electric vehicles, instead of cars that run on petrol or diesel; changing the way they heat their homes by replacing domestic gas boilers with renewable alternatives, such as electric heat pumps; and lifestyle changes such as consuming fewer meat and dairy products. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) estimated in 2019 that 62% of the remaining emissions reductions will happen either through individual choices and behaviours, some of which will require the development of new technologies. But it also found that there was a disconnect between people’s concern about climate change and their understanding of what is required to achieve emissions reductions in the UK.

Unless someone (or rather a lot of someones) comes up with some really clever ideas very soon, decarbonisation will involve a significant reduction in our material standard of living. This may well be accompanied by a lot of new employment and economic growth, a combination that will puzzle many (including a lot of economists). So you'd think it was high time for ministers to have started preparing us for this. There are hints that they know this is the PAC report, but that comes from within departments not from politicians.

Politicians don't like making changes that are unpopular, for obvious reasons, and when asked to pre-announce anything of that kind they come over all Augustinian. But even so, it's no too much to ask for another deferral of any rise in fuel duty - even to track inflation - to be accompanied by a justification. And that would also serve to introduce the idea that decarbonisation has costs and, while fuel of course isn't one of them (at current duty rates), other aspects of switching to electric vehicles do.

The NAO report underlying this PAC one (https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Achieving-net-zero.pdf) came out last December, and another specifically about "reducing carbon emissions from cars" (https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Reducing-Carbon-Emissions-from-cars.pdf) last month. Neither mentioned increasing fuel duty, and nor did the PAC report. But then perhaps the preparation (or warning) of the public belongs more with announcements about house heating, as replacing gas boilers is going to be a more painful process.



Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: broadgage on March 07, 2021, 01:49:33
I can not agree that I have "have an extremely limited level of knowledge and understanding on this subject" And indeed consider that I have a good understanding. I have "A" levels with distinction in both physics and chemistry and passed the A level in maths. This gives me a proper cynicism about alleged future advances that will allow us to drive and fly as normal.

Road fuel prices have fallen by about 10% in the last 10 years. In real terms after correcting for the prevailing inflation rate, the fall is in the region of 40%.
This cheap fuel encourages greater consumption.
Allmost all road transport in the UK is oil powered.
Oil derived fuels used for road transport are a significant part of UK total carbon emissions.
The only way to achieve the governments stated aim of net zero carbon is to drive and fly a lot less.
I do not believe that any form of trading or offsetting will help, we need to burn less fuel, and making it more expensive is a start.

Meanwhile rail fares have increased very substantialy in the last ten years, rail travel has become a less attractive option in other ways.

And I DO practice what I preach.
Dont fly or drive.
Minimise other use of fossil fuels.
Recycle as much as possible.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: grahame on March 07, 2021, 10:15:47
Rail fares by contrast should not in my view increase by more than the inflation rate.
There is a general public perception that rail fares are hugely costly and also very complicated. The actual fare payable is often considered to be a matter of luck rather than being determined by a logical process.

[snip]

I see no merit whatsoever in allowing discounted travel on services known to be overcrowded, simply becuase the ticket was purchased weeks in advance.
I likewise see no merit in charging a punitively high fare for last minute travel on a lightly used service.

I have quoted that at ((here)) (http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=24746.msg302884#msg302884) - an example of the complexity even on a well-loved and logical journey that does not have advance fare offerings.   One person travelling alone, and without any extra purchase of a railcard, might pay between £17.50 and £331.20.   Depending on the political point people wish to make, they may quote either of those fares in comparisons - or indeed the £12.90 possible with a railcard.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: broadgage on March 07, 2021, 11:54:36
Petrol by contrast is about the same price no matter when purchased and used.
Rail fares are far too complex, and a side effect of this is that actual journey times are now much extended.

As an example, consider Minehead to London.
This requires a bus from Minehead to Taunton, and then a train to London.
The only affordable fares are restricted to a particular train.
This requires leaving Minehead at least an hour earlier than suggested by the actual journey time, to allow for bus delays and cancellations. Missing the train means paying a "fine" of about £100, rather than simply waiting for the next train.
So the actual journey time has been extended by an hour or more, which makes driving a lot more attractive.

Under my proposed simplified fares, an off peak ticket would be valid on ANY off peak train, no more tickets tied to one specified train.


Title: Re: Rail fare rises '21 - up by 2.6% but not until March
Post by: Robin Summerhill on March 07, 2021, 12:12:50
I think the relevant qualifications when dealing with fuel tax rises are likely to be in politics and PR rather than anything else.

Fuel tax increases, as well as the issues raised by TG such as economic impact on completely unrelated issues such as food prices, are also extremely unpopular.

Let us not forget there are people around who, if they stumbled across this forum by chance, may discover some amusement in reading threads such as 4tph to Severn Beach, or trams for Bath and Bristol, or contactless payments in the Thames Valley, when they personally haven’t had a community train service since 1965 or a bus service since 1982 (Stanley Bridge is an example).

They may laugh out loud at people complaining about losing late evening bus and train services when they know it is virtually impossible to get from Tetbury to Calne by public transport at any time, let alone after the pubs had shut. Other examples of similar relatively short journeys can be found all over the country

Those examples are digressions, but they emphasise the point. There are people, indeed vast numbers of people, who do not have the benefit of sensible access to public transport at all and are totally reliant on their cars, and that situation isn’t going to change any time soon.

Some of those people will have lost their jobs through COVD, and others will lose them through Brexit in the future. How do you think, on a political and PR level, a fuel tax increase is going to affect these people and, more importantly for politicians, their voting intentions at the next election?

If the economy was booming then fuel tax increases will be grumbled about but accepted by the population. To do it at the moment would lead to riots in the streets in some countries and, at the very least lead to a few lost deposits come the next election in the UK. Conversely, telling people that their personal tax allowances will be frozen in a couple of years time and you’ll hardly hear a “harrumph.”

When ideology and political expediency collide then poetical expediency usually wins.



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