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Train passengers will get an indication today, Wednesday 18 August, of how much ticket prices may rise, amid calls for fares to be frozen.

The cap on the annual increase in most regulated rail fares is normally linked to the previous July’s Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation.

This year’s figure will be announced by the Office for National Statistics at 7am, with economic forecasts suggesting it will be around 3.6 per cent.

Rail fares are usually increased every January. But the coronavirus pandemic meant this year’s increase was delayed until March 1.

Ticket prices in England and Wales rose by an average of around 2.6 per cent, representing RPI for July 2020 plus one percentage point.

The Scottish Government imposed smaller rises of 1.6 per cent and 0.6 per cent for peak and off-peak travel respectively.

Rail fares rise every year.
Excise duty on road fuel is frozen every year.

What happened to the climate emergency ?

One part of the equation is here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58254000 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58254000)

The climate emergency is subservient to the need to be re-elected at the next general election. Power corrupts.

The climate emergency is subservient to the need to be re-elected at the next general election. Power corrupts.

But the government say they will not use this to set rail fare rises in 2022!

RPI% is still used I believe, but that measure is no longer an official measure & not released by ONS, but calculated separately

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) and its derivatives have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics; the RPI, its sub-components and the RPIX continue to be published as they are tied to long-term contracts.

Time for Action, not Words on Rail fares

Today saw the release of July’s inflation figures, including a RPI rate of 3.8% and a CPI rate of 2.0%.  The RPI rate, often with an extra 1% has been used in recent years to set the following year’s increase in rail fares for England & Wales. But rail campaigners are calling for change in approach.

“The Government will no doubt tell us in due course that it is only fair that if the cost of living is increasing the passenger should continue to pay their share.  But this is missing the point.  It isn’t the fare that determines how much passengers, overall, contribute to the railway – it is the fare multiplied by the number of passengers that matters” said Neil Middleton from the campaign group Railfuture.  “At a time when there are so few captive passengers for the railway, with business meetings that can take place on Zoom, and ‘Work from Home’ as the routine, the reduction in demand from an increased price easily leads to an overall loss of revenue”.

We hear of talk for significant restructure of rail fares – promised many times, most recently in the Williams Shapps review, but no action to actually make it happen.  At a time when public transport can so easily help us to achieve a low carbon life, it is disappointing that the “more of the same” approach seems to be seen as the low risk option.  It isn’t – a new approach to rail fares can stimulate demand, increase revenue and reduce the burden to taxpayers. 

Rail already struggles to demonstrate value at times – consider Newcastle to London tomorrow for a full day’s work.  Key choices include:

Train with flexibility: £310 (could be £325 next year)

Train without flexibility: £251 (could be £263 next year)

Drive £40.48 (petrol, parking at Stanmore Underground station and fare to central London)

Commuters will also see significant price increases – our table below shows price increases for commuters for next year assuming an inflationary increase of 4.8% is applied.

The temptation for travellers to choose alternatives is already high – each time that happens, the taxpayer steps in to make up that missed revenue.

It’s time for the Government to take action to actually do something about their words (“considering a variety of options”) – in order to ensure that:

1. Revenue for the railway increases by stopping a focus on just half the challenge – income per person matters a lot less than total revenue.

2. We are all encouraged towards to transport that’s more carbon efficient – LNER’s calculator shows CO2 emissions of 35.0kg for the train, and 144.9kg for the car (for the return journey).

A good first step would be to announce that the historic RPI + 1% habit has been retired and commit to a better choice – do not forget that the Office for Statistics Regulation de-designated RPI as a National Statistic 8 years ago.

If the Government is serious about revenue, not fares, and carbon efficiency, setting next year’s increase to zero would be a powerful message.  Messages that say we don’t want it getting worse would include limiting it to the lower of CPI and the increase in fuel duty (if any).

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/rf_2022_01.jpg)

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/rf_2022_02.jpg)

Perhaps excise duties on road fuel and fares on the railway should be linked.

If rail fares are to be increased by say 4% then fuel duty should increase similarly.
Or put another way, if fuel duty is frozen, then rail fares should be.

If the price of apples rises by 4%, why don't we raise the price of pears by a similar amount?

Not comparable at all. Apples and pears are crops the prices of which vary due to fluctuations in harvests, and varying consumer demand. Prices are not set by the government but by supply versus demand.

Petrol prices are largely controlled by the government as they can adjust the rate of duty which is a significant proportion of the retail price.
Train fares are largely under government control.

Generally speaking the Government uses RPI when it comes to taking, and CPI when it comes to giving.

I'd be interested to understand what you think that would achieve, other than disproportionately affecting poorer people and increasing the price of other goods, because you can be assure that the additional cost would be passed on. It would have virtually no impact on demand.

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Demand for fuel is virtually inelastic and price has very little effect on it.

Fair fares?

The effects of climate change are being felt around the world. Earlier this month, the UN chief warned of a "code red for humanity". And with the UK hosting the UN Climate Change Conference this year, it's even more important that our country reduce its carbon emissions.

So it makes no sense that people travelling by green public transport must pay increasing fares while fuel duty for drivers has been frozen for a decade and the Government is considering cutting air passenger duty.

Last week the Government deferred a decision on whether rail fares should increase. We think fares should be frozen for next year, followed by a full review: we need to rebalance pricing in favour of greener modes.

Over the past week, we've been making this case on the BBC, in the Daily Express, the Guardian, the Telegraph and The Times, and supporters of public transport have helped us to spread the message on social media. If you use Twitter or Facebook please follow us, join the conversation and share our posts with your friends.

Raising fares would hinder vital efforts to bring down transport's carbon emissions, and worsen air pollution and traffic-clogged streets. Together let's call for a #FaresFreeze.

12:17 Westbury to Swindon due 12:59
13:15 Swindon to Westbury due 13:56

13:15 Swindon to Westbury due 13:56 will be cancelled.
This is due to a shortage of train crew.

If you hold a valid single, return, or weekly ticket, you will be able to claim compensation for delays of 15 minutes or more. Please keep your ticket and visit GWR.com/DelayRepay

"Regulated fares"

Usually 6 month RPI ... this time based on JULY 2021 (however, it has gone up since then!)

Govt says "look - taxpayer had put in £14bn so a balance between recouping costs and not putting people off" (paraphrasing BBC).  Noting 100k flexiseasons sold

It has been based on the July RPI every year in recent times, even last year when the increase was first delayed to March from January. This time we *gain* as the September RPI (two months later following the delay in increase date) was higher.

Quotes are from BBC News channel

- but who sets the others under management contracts not franchises?

Rail fares capped to prevent high increases for passengers

Government caps rail fare increases in 2022 and delays the rise in prices until March to allow passengers more time to buy cheaper flexible and season tickets at the existing rate.

• government caps annual fare increase at 3.8%   
• Book with Confidence scheme extended to 31 March 2022, supporting passengers as they return to the railway   
• changes to rail fares will come into force in March next year, giving passengers more time to purchase cheaper flexible and season tickets at the existing rate

Next year’s rail fare rise will be 3.8%, below the current retail price inflation of 7.1%. The government will not increase fares by the retail price index (RPI) rate plus 1%, as it did in 2021.

Until the pandemic, fares were raised in January each year by a formula based on the RPI rate of the previous July, 6 months beforehand. In 2022, the increase will take place in March, giving passengers more time to purchase cheaper flexible and season tickets at the existing rate.

Current fares are still available up to May 3 !!

I would get & buy now if I were you as they can’t refuse you travel on any ti ket already sold & bought in good faith

Rail fare hikes stoking the cost of living crisis

Rail fare hikes of 3.8% kick in on Tuesday 1st March, adding to the current cost of living crisis.

“Ordinary working people are feeling the squeeze like never before, yet the government is stoking the fire of the cost of living crisis with these eye-watering fare increases.  How does this help get the country back to work?” said Bruce Williamson of the campaign group Railfuture. “Few people are getting an income increase of 3.8% this year. People are struggling to heat their homes, yet the government wants to take even more money off them for the privilege of taking the train to earn a living.“

Government uses the obsolete RPI measure of inflation instead of CPI which is usually lower.  If CPI were used, fares would rise by only 2%.

“If the government cared about the cost of living crisis, they would drop RPI and use CPI instead. They can afford to give motorists a break, by freezing fuel duty for 12 years on the trot.  Why won’t they do something similar for the hard pressed rail traveller?”

“Inflation this year is likely to hit 8%, so unless the government changes the formula, the average rail traveller will be bankrupted next year.”

“They could take this opportunity not just to freeze fares, just like they’ve done with fuel duty, but to reform our insanely complex fares structure.  Transparent, affordable fares would not only encourage a return to rail, but would give a boost to the economy and promote green environmentally-friendly travel.”

Ross H has said outward travel on March 1