Great Western Coffee Shop

Front page of "i" this morning

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/i20210907.jpg)

There's rarely smoke without fire, but often the smoke can be misleading (did you ever shovel wet grass and leaves onto a small, fierce bonfire and see a huge, thick cloud of smoke rising out of all proportion ...

Thoughts??

I’d be surprised if we got through to next spring without any restrictions being introduced.  Hopefully workplaces, shops and other leisure/entertainment/hospitality  will be able to stay open.

When all restrictions were lifted a short while back and the infection rate started to climb again, I made a comment to my colleagues that "it would not surprise me if restrictions (if not another full lockdown) would be reimposed in time for the Autumn Half Term". I may be a natural pessimist, but I stick to my comment. My wife works in a school and the powers-that-be at that school are very nervous about their charges returning to a 'no restrictions' environment.

A reminder above of my prediction from back in mid-July.

Covid Vaccination Passports for many activities have now been introduced in France, and touching all available wood, cases over here are starting to come down. I dont like it at all from a civil liberties perspective of course, but it is probably true to say that the alternative is frequent lockdown and the closure of the type of leisure/entertainment/hospitality establishments that Industry Insider mentions for at least 8 months a year.

My thoughts are to close infernal state schools permanently. They do little to no educational good. Provide some online lectures. Let kids learn soft skills by playing in smaller groups in nearby woods and on nearby mountains. If we have a public health reason to save council tax like this, then all the better.

There are always "worst-case scenarios" that the media seize on. Some of us may remember consideration some 40 (??) years ago of the future rail network which led to maps being published in the press showing no rail services beyond Plymouth and between Salisbury and Exeter (among many other cuts).

Remember too some of the pessimistic "up to" statistics that have been floated over the past 18 months.

Though I'm generally comfortable outside, I still wince at the jam-packed crowds watching the Tour of Britain cycle race and shouting encouragement at the riders. Not a mask in sight. Yet about 15-20% of the crowds watching the recent Tour of Spain were masked.

That is a rather unusual view, but one with which I largely agree.
After all schools HAVE been largely closed for extended periods, and exam results reached new records, so in the interests of continued progress, close them permanently.

If you think that the method of education by remote means used during the Pandemic saved money then you are sadly mistaken! Such a change even if it were desirable will not save money. 

A permanent closure or great reduction in formal schooling should save a great deal of money.
There was no saving during the pandemic because all staff in the industry were still paid, and premises maintained.

An alternative that Sajid now appears to have chosen for you - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58535258


As you all know, from a civil liberties perspective, I completely agree with Sajid. I had to show my Vaccine Passport 3 times in Carhaix on Friday - to gain access to 2 cafes, and 1 routine hospital appointment - and each time I felt my skin crawl.

The problem is the numbers appear to tell the story - 28000 cases per day on a rising trend in the UK, versus 7000 cases per day on a falling trend over here.

I note Sajid's "whilst we should keep it in reserve as a potential option" caveat, and my personal opinion is that as much as it pains me to say it, you would probably be better off introducing the Vaccine Passport now while you still have a chance of avoiding a new lockdown, rather than having to introduce a Vaccine Passport in a few months time as the UK population emerges in a state of bitterness mixed with weary resignation from that avoidable lockdown, with the politicians telling them at that point that the measure is the only way to avoid future lockdowns...

For info, the 7-day average figures now, at the end of September, are 34,600 cases per day for the UK and 5,000 (and falling) for France, a ratio of about 7:1. In the last 7 days, the death ratio has also been around 7:1 (700:100).

Cases and hospitalisations still a long way below the most optimistic of SAGE forecasts from a couple of months ago.

I have had to show my proof of vaccination together with photo ID on a number of occasions on my  current travels through France and Switzerland (including at the top of a mountain today). No problem as you get into the habit of keeping them with you. I do not consider this to be an infringement of my civil liberties. No different to producing my driving licence when asked.

It will be interesting to see whether that holds up, and which direction the indicators go, on both sides of the channel.


You are entitled to your opinion, but I dont agree with your underlying premise. You need to demonstrate a particular level of skill and competence in order to gain the right to drive. This is not the case to sit down and order a drink in a cafe/bar or a meal in a restaurant. It is not the case to watch a film in a cinema. It is not the case to view an exhibition in an art gallery. Up until now, people have not had to demonstrate a particular level of skill and competence in order to gain the right to do any of these things, but the Covid Vaccine Passport rules bar anyone that doesnt have that documented proof from doing all of these things.

As I have said, I have reluctantly accepted the need for it in the current health context, but if it were to stay in place indefinitely beyond the current emergency situation, I would absolutely consider it a fundamental breach of civil liberties.

I note that President Macron has promised pubilicly not to keep it any longer than absolutely necessary, that they will start to progressively roll it back in areas where indicators are sustainably low, and I very much hope he keeps his word on that.

The driving licence analogy is a good example of false equivalence.

It's also an excellent example of the habit of putting the individuals "rights" before collective responsibility.

Those of us fortunate enough to obtain tickets for England's Autumn Internationals at Twickenham have already been advised that evidence of vaccination may be required to secure admission (as well as the "ambitiously" priced tickets!). I don't hear too many complaints, people can be pretty pragmatic when they can see the greater good.

My cousin's wife is a Doctor and recently explained the process of mechanical ventilation to me. Carrying a piece of paper or details on a smartphone  seems a remarkably benign alternative - look it up if you don't believe me, I daresay it'll make your skin crawl a bit more than having to show a piece of paper in a cafe - and even if it only saves a few people that awful experience it's worthwhile.

I won't repeat here her views on those who are refusing to be vaccinated as she is a lady and this is a civilised forum!

The driving licence analogy is not an example of "false equivalence" at all - It is a perfectly reasonable alternative way of looking at it, based on a premise that another member - not me - brought into play. The fact is that fundamental rights that previous generations died for, and that our generations have taken for granted since are being suspended at present, and however well-meaning the reasons for that may be, the decision to do that should absolutely be open to regular scrutiny.

And your answer is also a good example of someone not fully reading what the previous poster has written. I have made it very clear that I accept the need for it in the current health context, and I take any inference otherwise as a personal insult.

Quite a lot of the latest ONS data:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals
seems to indicate that further lockdowns and/or imposition of restrictions would be unnecessary. While I accept that this picture can change very rapidly I take the view that the massive increase in infections / hospital admissions / deaths predicted by SAGE has not happened, even though school, college & university populations have pretty much completely returned to 'normal' operation, so lets just leave these decisions to the individual.

The ONS data show that the vast majority of new infections are in the 0-24 years age group while hospital admissions & deaths are much higher in the 65+ group. Also related deaths are much higher in the unvaccinated group. Exactly as expected.

I returned to watching live rugby at Sandy Park as of the 11th September. Early season gatherings of around the 10,000 mark have not yet caused any significant issues.

......let's hope the results improve!!!  :)

Reports of concerns on this thread have come to me - been on a project, so not really been around and reading much today.  So reading in (somewhat) now and perhaps too late in the day. 

Strikes me that everyone contributing appreiates the need - short term - for something akin to a "covid passport" as a far preferable way forward than some of the alternative horrors. And everyone understands there's a restriction of freedoms in that which really is only acceptable for as short a period as possible.

It's got heated - a passion of debate has become personal, and I suspect that was not deliberate on any side.  I am left with the interesting job of helping us all move on without drawing fire onto myself, potentially from multiple directions.  My fingers are crossed as I simply suggest we move on in the morning, letting "yesterday" feel a long way behind us.

Happily the did just that, possibly temporarily, yesterday.  :)

When considering whether Britain does have the worst infection rate in Europe it is important to look at the number of tests being carried out. Clearly, the more tests the more cases will be uncovered.  The latest statistics, from Worldometer,  show the UK has carried out 4,457,868 tests per million population. France has carried out about half as many -- 2,188,303 -- Italy fewer still at 1,547,649, and, perhaps surprisingly, Germany is well down at only 871,955. I am not at all arguing for fewer tests, just suggesting that our rate of testing skews our infection rate in comparison to others.

Indeed.  Any direct comparisons between countries, or attempts at forecasting with any degree of accuracy are largely arbitrary.

4.5 tests per head of population sounds a lot, but when you consider the number of professions that currently require folk to take two (at least) Lateral Flow tests per week, that number is not that huge.

The Welsh Parliament has voted to introduce a COVID passport for nightclubs and sporting events.....


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/05/wales-introduces-compulsory-covid-pass-for-nightclubs-and-sports-events

Very early on in the COVID saga, I got irritated with the media's bald comparisons between countries that took no account of population sizes, amount of testing etc. An early example was comparing the UK (population 67 million) with Sweden (population 10 million). A local news website was inclined to do this when comparing local-authority areas.