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7111  All across the Great Western territory / Looking forward - after Coronavirus to 2045 / Re: Intercity Express Programme (IEP) - ongoing discussion on: September 10, 2012, 13:14:00
An HST (High Speed Train) on one engine will still eventually reach 125 on level track, so presumably a lot more than 9 can be handled with both engines working.
No it wont. 110 - 115 is as much as you will get and thats after about 25 miles or so. Wink

I concur.  Also, it's worth saying that most of these operating rules are based on a worst case scenario, i.e. during leaf-fall, and what seems perfectly possible in fine weather soon changes when conditions are different.
7112  All across the Great Western territory / Across the West / Re: The new franchise - what will happen to LTV services over the next 10 years? on: September 07, 2012, 17:17:27
No mention in this discussion about the talked about Oxford/Gatwick service using the refurbished underpass at Reading. Mark Hopwood has spoken optimisticly about this possibility. Would that mean using one of the existing 2 slow TPH (trains per hour) Oxford/London trains to make an hourly O/G service? How about power souces for such a service - 5 car Bi-mode?

I did mention it in the post-Dec 2019 section (but it probably should have been mentioned in the post-Dec 2016 section).  I'm in two minds about it to be honest, and I think the electrification plan actually decreases the likelihood of it happening, even though it becomes slightly easier using the underpass at Reading.  I don't think there are the paths, unless you utilise one of the Oxford to Reading stopping paths which then means slow journeys, as the minimum time for an Oxford-Reading stopper is 40 minutes with trains currently taking much longer thanks to long layovers at Didcot.  Traction wise, you really are looking at a Turbo unless there is some infill 3rd Rail enabling 319s to be a possibility - I can't see that though to be honest.  I certainly can't personally see how a 5-Car bi-mode operated train would make any money.  Then again, Mr Hopwood might have other ideas!

Perhaps, as used to happen until about seven years ago, a couple of early morning/late evening Gatwick services could be extended from/to Oxford?

In some ways, I think a better solution would be for a 2-hourly XC (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) service using the current Newcastle to Reading trains which could then go forward to Guildford, Gatwick and (possibly) on to Brighton, that would give useful direct (and fast) links from Birmingham, Leamington, Banbury and Oxford (and Coventry in the longer term) but then again it's already been tried in a manner of speaking back around 10 years ago, requires an extra unit, and long signalling headways on the North Downs line after Wokingham make pathing difficult!
7113  All across the Great Western territory / Across the West / Re: The new franchise - what will happen to LTV services over the next 10 years? on: September 07, 2012, 16:13:57
Hooray I assume resignally includes a new track layout at Worcester?

I expect we'll find out more when NR» (Network Rail - home page) releases their CP5 (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) Strategic Business Plan, which I think is due next January and I must say I'm bloody looking forward to reading it!  Tongue
7114  All across the Great Western territory / Across the West / Re: The new franchise - what will happen to LTV services over the next 10 years? on: September 07, 2012, 10:32:57
I'm just basing my hypothesis on my pessimistic view of things. Undecided Esp the view of Worcester as Cinderella. (semaphores won't be axed until the 2050s)

I read that Xrail would almost certainly get extended to RDG(resolve). Now it looks as if it won't. (and for goodness sake, get it onto the WCML (West Coast Main Line) slows) This shows that things get changed.

I quite agree with your comments on Crossrail, though Worcester is set to lose its semaphores a long time before the 2050s according to the Invitation To Tender for the Greater Western franchise:

The Western Operating Strategy proposes the acceleration of three Re-signalling Projects in CP5 (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) to deliver significant operational and OPEX benefits:
1) Plymouth ^ Penzance Re-signalling (2017);
2) Worcester Area (2018); and
3) Greenford Re-signalling (2018).
7115  All across the Great Western territory / Across the West / Re: The new franchise - what will happen to LTV services over the next 10 years? on: September 07, 2012, 09:42:28
When the Crossrail order is placed additional shorter Units ordered for the TVL services perhaps with different seat config, oh a don't forget there will be a order for the Cardiff Valley lines ......... or are they getting 313  Grin

I suppose that having a compatible fleet with Crossrail would be useful in terms of rescuing failed trains - perhaps a 5-car variant?  With regard to the Crossrail sets, I wonder what seating layout will be chosen?  Perhaps, in a 10-car train, a good compromise would be to have a 3-4-3 formation where the three coaches at either end have comfortable suburban seating, mostly 'airline' style (or 'bus' style as Broadgauge describes it) at 2+2, with the middle four coaches (likely to be the busiest within central London) fitted with longitudinal seating 'tube' style giving plenty of standing space?
7116  All across the Great Western territory / Across the West / Re: The new franchise - what will happen to LTV services over the next 10 years? on: September 06, 2012, 18:20:41
I bet the new EMUs (Electric Multiple Unit) will not be fit for 110.

Oxford services will be cut to 100mph EMU operation, ending the prospects for journey time decreases. A service that could be 45mins with frequent services and low fares (combined with Chiltern's service) could destroy the coach market. Cotswold services could be sped up.

Extra stops at Maidenhead and Tyford will occur on many services (inclduing all Oxford "fasts") to compensate for Crossrail. Of course, what we need is for stops to be CUT!

Well, the ITT (Invitation to Tender) document uses the following text to describe speeds of the units:

The composition of the fleet to operate the London suburban services from December 2016 and in subsequent years. Bidders shall explain the reasons for choosing:
between new and cascaded fleets;
the performance of the rolling stock including top speed capability (e.g. 90mph, 100, 110, 125 etc) and acceleration and braking rates;
the mix of diesel and electric sets;
which displaced vehicles will be redeployed within the franchise and which vehicles will be returned to their owning ROSCOs» (Rolling Stock Owning Company - about) when Crossrail takes over services in May 2018 and December 2019; and
continued operation of DOO (Driver-Only Operation (that is, trains which operate without carrying a guard)) where it is in operation at the date of this ITT.

It should be noted that Network Rail believes that vehicles capable of 110mph running are necessary to maximise the benefits of the overall infrastructure investments on the route. Bidders should come to their own assessments of this view.


That's where you let yourself down sometimes, Btline, with statements like 'Oxford services will be cut to 100mph EMU operation' as nobody knows if that's the case or not yet - hence this debate, and even if they are that's better than the many 90mph services currently provided.  Presumably those services currently operated at 125mph will continue to do so with IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.) operation.

I would hazard a guess that cascaded stock will be 100mph and if new stock it procured it will be 110mph as that seems to be the way we're going with recent EMU orders.  A 110mph service from Oxford to London would make a sub-50 minute journey time within reach if Slough was cut, and sub-55 minutes if it wasn't.  Either way, I doubt 45 minutes on a regular basis is likely.  I think stops at Maidenhead and Twyford could be allowed for in the two relief paths guaranteed, rather than on Oxford to London services, but of course that might not happen.

7117  All across the Great Western territory / Across the West / The new franchise - what will happen to LTV services over the next 10 years? on: September 06, 2012, 17:22:55
I thought I^d try to start a discussion about how the LTV (London [and] Thames Valley) part of the Greater Western Franchise might eventually end up during and after the several shake-ups that will settle down eventually at the end of the decade.  I think the best way to do this is to list the alterations that will be taking place and to give my opinions on what the best solutions to the various issues raised will be.  It is by no means an easy set of conclusions!


How it is now
The situation now is fairly simple.  The LTV service is operated by a fleet of 20 2-Car Turbos, 37 3-Car Turbos (21 of which are Class 166s), 5x Class 360s used on the Heathrow Connect services, and 2x Class 150s.  Those trains are backed up with a fleet of 5 Class 180s, and certain other services are operated by HSTs (High Speed Train).

Turbos exclusively (or near exclusively) cover services from Reading to Guildford/Gatwick, London to Newbury/Bedwyn, Oxford to London stoppers, Oxford to Banbury, London to Greenford, Slough to Windsor, Maidenhead to Marlow, and Twyford to Henley services.  Turbos also cover many of the Oxford to London fasts as well as a few of the Cotswold Line services, backed up with Class 180s and HSTs (especially in the peak hours).

The Class 360s work the half-hourly Heathrow Connect service as well as the Terminal 4 shuttle service at the airport.


What is on the horizon
As I see it, the recent announcements of GWML (Great Western Main Line) electrification, further electrification announced in the HLOS (High Level Output Specification), as well as the construction of Crossrail will radically alter the type of train and pattern of service that we will see over the coming years.

There appears to be four distinct stages due before the end of the decade;
1)   The electrification of the routes from London to Oxford/Newbury ^ Scheduled for Dec 2016.
2)   The electrification of the routes from Basingstoke to Reading, the Thames Valley branches, and north of Oxford to Nuneaton via Banbury ^ Scheduled for sometime between 2014-2019.
3)   The replacement of Heathrow Connect service with Crossrail services from Paddington (High Level) to Heathrow at 4tph frequency ^ Scheduled for May 2018.
4)   Full Crossrail implementation ^ Scheduled for Dec 2019.

All of this presents the new operator of the Greater Western Franchise with ever-moving goalposts ^ the number of electric units required between 2016 and 2019 is much more than will be required after 2019 when Crossrail takes over most of the Paddington suburban services.  That presents the franchisee with a problem if it is going to obtain new stock, as it will need somewhere to go to after that!


What kind of service will be operating from December 2016?
By then the London to Oxford/Newbury route should be using electric trains.  But what electric trains?  When Lord Adonis announced the original electrification plan for the GWML in July 2009, he said that Class 319s transferred from the ^Thameslink^ route and given a refresh including air-conditioning would operate over the route.  This is now in doubt, as with further electrification in the North West (where 319s were also going to go), as well as the extensions to the Greater Western franchise operated services, means that even with 86 4-car units ripe for a cascade, that probably won^t be enough to go round.

Will there be an order for new EMUs (Electric Multiple Unit) to work over the Greater Western route?  My guess is that there will be.  The 319s will go up north where they will be much better received by a less demanding public and all 86 will go into use working the newly electrified routes, possibly including some of those currently worked by Transpennine DMUs (Diesel Multiple Unit).

If a new order of EMUs is ordered for the Greater Western franchise, what form will it take?  4-car, 100mph units have been the norm for electric traction orders in recent decades, usually around 80 metres in length with carriages of 20m in length.  That makes them 11m longer than the current 3-Car Turbo fleet, which doesn^t sound like much, but is significant in terms of platform lengths.  I would imagine that they will be specified for 110mph working to make better use of the GWML^s ruling linespeeds (as Network Rail have stated is desirable).  The trouble with having a fleet of 4-car units is that it is much less flexible than the current Turbo fleet of 2 and 3-car lengths.  With the Turbos you can have any configuration from 2-6 carriages with a bit of mixing and matching (you could actually go up to 12 cars with the correct infrastructure).  With 4-car units you either have a 4-car train, or couple two together to go to 8-cars.  This leaves you with the conundrum that 4-car trains won^t be long enough to operate busy services, but 8-car trains would need expensive platform extensions, or a fleet fitted with Selective Door Operation (SDO (Selective Door Opening)) equipment ^ not to mention being too long outside of rush hour!  For those reasons, perhaps a 5-car length train would be more suitable to the kind of services most of them will operate on?

Even with 4-car trains, you have problems at some routes currently worked by Turbos.  For example, some or all platforms at places like Appleford, Culham, and Goring would need lengthening if SDO isn^t used.  This is also assuming that places like Southall and West Drayton on the Crossrail route will have been lengthened by 2016, so that 8-car trains will be able to stop there.  In some cases these platforms will only need a couple of metres added to them, but they will all need doing before electric trains take over.

The problem at Bourne End and Marlow is even more serious with the junction at Bourne End meaning a 2-car Turbo is the longest train that can be accommodated when going as far as Marlow.  The operational platforms length could just about be extended to cope with a 3-car 20m electric train though.

Perhaps the points raised in the previous paragraphs means that some EMUs will be ordered that will be of 3-car in length?  Unusual for an EMU, but certainly possible.

The service pattern will be similar to today I should imagine, but there will need to be alterations to the Turbo fleet, especially on the Paddington to Bedwyn service which will presumably become a Paddington to Newbury EMU operated service, with either a diesel Turbo shuttle service from Newbury to Bedwyn or an IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.) operated service running though from Paddington via Reading and Newbury serving Kintbury, Hungerford and Bedwyn (and beyond). 

Also, the Paddington-Greenford service will become a West Ealing to Greenford shuttle service (presumably using two units with an increased 15 or 20-minute frequency).  I^m not sure, long term, that the Greenford service staying in the hands of the Greater Western franchise is a good idea, as it will have absolutely no direct link with other Greater Western services post-Crossrail, but whoever operates it, there will be much greater scope for coping with peak passenger growth to and from Paddington as the two paths per hour currently using these 2-car DMUs, could potentially be taken over by 8-car EMU^s until replaced by 10-car Crossrail EMUs in 2019.


List of possible December 2016 options
So, here is a list of the most likely solutions:
1)   Build a new build of a mix of 3 and 4-car EMUs based on the 110mph Class 350 EMU (or equivalent from another supplier).
2)   Use cascaded Class 319s and reduce a few of them in length to 3-cars, or seek other cascaded stock of 3-car length (Perhaps the aging Class 313s currently in use with First Capital Connect?).
3)   Use a 2-car Turbo all day on the Marlow Donkey and extend platforms at other stations to cope with 160m long electric trains (or in some cases 80m).
4)   Modify Bourne End (at significant expense) so that it can handle a 4-car, 80m train and just have a fleet of 80m units.
5)   Obtain a smallish fleet of new/cascaded EMUs, but continue to use a lot of Turbo units ^under the wires^ until 2019 when they will be replaced with Crossrail units.


What kind of service will be operating from December 2019?
At least things will have settled down by then with the only other (known) major change being the new western link into Heathrow Airport, due in the early 20s.  Though of course other major projects in later years, such as HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) along with whatever else might be dreamt up in the intervening years might mean the situation is anything but settled!

Assuming that the current plan for Crossrail remains, i.e. its western terminus being Maidenhead, then a large number of the inner-LTV services will be taken over by Crossrail.  There will, however, continue to be a reasonable number of services, both diesel and electric, being operated over the LTV routes.

It is likely that the North Downs line from Reading to Gatwick, and the Kennet Line to Newbury and Bedwyn will remain largely unchanged from the service operating from 2016, though there may be a case to provide links further west from Reading to Oxford.  But other routes will all see alterations:

The DMU service from Reading to Basingstoke and Oxford to Banbury could be EMU operated ^ though again, without platform extensions it would have to be a 3-Car EMU.
There will need to be some sort of shuttle service operating from Reading to Slough ^ presumably using EMUs ^ unless somebody sees sense soon and extends Crossrail to Reading.  Sadly the HLOS refused to budge in this respect, saying the majority of respondents to the consolation preferred Maidenhead (mine certainly didn^t!), so we have to assume it won^t happen.

That will mean an EMU operated service from Reading to Slough.  The Oxford to London stopping service which currently runs twice and hour may continue to run (using the two relief line off-peak paths promised between Maidenhead and London), but would probably have some of its stops removed, by perhaps calling after Reading at Twyford, Maidenhead, Slough, Hayes & Harlington, Ealing Broadway and Paddington ^ much as they used to in the Thames Trains days.  The less stops, the harder to path though with all those Crossrail services.  I don^t envy the timetable planners.

You^ll also have a Greater Western operated EMU service operating from London/Reading to Newbury, Maidenhead to Marlow (presumably), Slough to Windsor, Twyford to Henley-On-Thames.  Perhaps the fleet of Heathrow Connect units would be suited to work the Thames Valley branches?  Added to that, the probability that some of the Oxford to London fast trains will also be operated by EMUs, rather than the whole lot going over to IEP operation. 

Peak hour through services to places like Henley and Bourne End are likely to continue, and it^s possible that new services could be provided, for example an hourly London to Swindon EMU service calling at Slough, Reading, Didcot, Wantage and Swindon would enable other IEPs to potentially have stops at Reading and/or Didcot removed.


What do I see happening until the end of the decade?
Very tricky one to answer, that.  There are so many variables.  We^ll all know a lot more when the winning of the franchise is announced and their plans revealed, but here are my hunches as to what service we will see.

Firstly, it doesn^t make business sense to acquire a large fleet of electric units only to see them not needed after just three years when Crossrail takes over.  A smallish fleet of about 25-30 4-car units would probably enable many of the Oxford-Paddington stopping services (and a few of the fast services) and the Newbury-Paddington service to go over to electric traction.  With Turbos continuing to work some of the Reading-Paddington services before being displaced in 2019 by Crossrail trains, that would mean a two phased cascade of Turbo units eventually leaving a core fleet of around 10-15 units for operating the remaining diesel services on the North Downs line as well as Bedwyn to Newbury and West Ealing to Greenford post-2019.  A few of the electric units above could then be reduced to 3-car length to work Oxford-Banbury and Reading-Basingstoke services as well as the Thames Valley branch lines.

I personally don^t think we^ll see any cascaded Class 319s.  The North West will swallow all of them up I think and a new fleet of EMUs will be ordered.  Perhaps a smallish order with a mixture of 5/4/3 cars to attempt to tick all the boxes, with some DMUs continuing under the wires during the period between 2016-2019?

Or, if there is somewhere for the surplus electric units to be cascaded to (such as the Bristol area, or the East-West Rail route), then perhaps a larger order of EMUs could be justified, with the extra units being cascaded there after Crossrail starts to take over in May 2018 and is then fully implemented in December 2019?

An awful lot rests on the huge amount of electrification and other infrastructure improvements coming to fruition on time.  If we look at recent projects, hardly anything is completed on time.  Look at the original estimates for Cotswold Line Redoubling when they were at the early stages of planning ^ it was a year late.  Evergreen 3 should have been up and running in less than a year from now, when in reality it hasn^t even been authorised yet.  Chiltern Mainline was a few months late on the revised delivery date at the start of last year.   Even certain elements of the Reading rebuild are running late when compared with the dates stated in the CP4 (Control Period 4 - the five year period between 2009 and 2014) delivery plan statement of March 2009 ^ we should have seen the new platforms opening this November, not next Easter and the new maintenance depot by next February and not the end of next year.

Maybe those are fairly small slippages, but when a whole heap of unit cascades, timetable changes, staff training etc. rests on all of the jigsaw pieces of these big projects being put into place on time ^ then that worries me a little!

So, what do people on the forum think?  Am I right, am I wrong, have I missed potential problems and solutions completely?   We^ve touched on some of these issues already, but in looking at them as a whole wider picture is very important in my opinion.
7118  Sideshoots - associated subjects / The Lighter Side / Re: "The Bourne End Express" On board PID way off. on: September 06, 2012, 11:08:58
That is exactly what would have happened.  Although a little better, the PIS (Passenger Information System) is still very unreliable.
7119  Sideshoots - associated subjects / The Lighter Side / Re: Wednesday wander. Where was bignosemac today? on: September 06, 2012, 11:01:35
I went as far as Pershore from Oxford. Nice little country town but a bleddy long walk from the station!

A friend of mine is convinced every railway station is located in the arse-end of its town.  It's hard to argue against that with stations like Pershore!
7120  All across the Great Western territory / Across the West / Re: First Great Western announces extra capacity across network on: September 05, 2012, 16:33:19
Well, with all 4 daily 180 diagrams in service, and all of the 2+7 HSTs (High Speed Train) now extended to 2+8 carriages, this announcement has come to fruition.
7121  All across the Great Western territory / Looking forward - after Coronavirus to 2045 / Re: Intercity Express Programme (IEP) - ongoing discussion on: September 05, 2012, 14:28:25
Speaking of platform lengths has it been determined if 2 x 5 car IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.) (260 metres) will fit into the platforms at Paddington yet, bearing in mind a 2+8 HST (High Speed Train) is only 218 metres long and a 2+9 is only 231 metres long....

They definitely won't fit in some of the platforms without modifications, though I think they'll be little or no modifications required for platforms 1, 2 and 3.  Other platforms are currently less than 260m in length, the 'main line' ones ranging from 237m to 253m according to the Sectional Appendix.  Shrinking the concourse won't be easy or popular and there's not much room to play with at the far end, so the solution will be interesting!
7122  Journey by Journey / Thames Valley Branches / Re: Thames Valley branches post Crossrail and electrification on: September 05, 2012, 12:50:26
Or some surplus 3-Car Class 313s from FCC (First Capital Connect)?  Not a long term solution given their age mind you!
7123  Journey by Journey / Thames Valley Branches / Re: Thames Valley branches post Crossrail and electrification on: September 04, 2012, 22:19:03
There appears no way that the down platform at Bourne End can be lengthened in either direction.

I think it was 'Electric Train' that suggested in another thread that if the stop blocks were moved at Bourne End to a position level with those on the other platform (i.e. flush to the platform end), along with a reposition of the point indicator signal, then there would just be room for a 3-car 20 metre long EMU (Electric Multiple Unit), which, together with a short extension of the platform at Marlow, would mean that could operate the service through from Maidenhead to Marlow.

This picture demonstrates the Bourne End situation perfectly: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/48405051?source=wapi&referrer=kh.google.com

I'm currently working on a 'mega-post' trying to sum up all the issues that will arise with the LTV (London [and] Thames Valley) services by the end of the decade (and my guesses as to the best/likely solutions), as by then Crossrail, and electrification will impact on virtually all the routes.
7124  All across the Great Western territory / Across the West / Re: Great Western Railway: on-board catering, buffets, Travelling Chef, Pullman - ongoing discussion on: September 04, 2012, 09:37:23
I have travelled on the 12:55 ex-Plymouth three times in the last month and in each case there have been at least nine diners and in one case 13.  I did report on this thread a while back an occasion when there were 17.

AFAIR 14 seats were taken out of a maximum available of 19 seats.
This was a little busier than normal, 10 or 12 seats taken seems to be about the average.

That's not bad at all.
7125  All across the Great Western territory / Across the West / Re: Great Western Railway: on-board catering, buffets, Travelling Chef, Pullman - ongoing discussion on: September 03, 2012, 18:07:13
Recently returned from the West on the 12-05 from Plymouth, most enjoyable meal on board.

Glad you enjoyed it.  How many others were making use of the restaurant?  Obviously the main trade is on the return service in the evening, but it'd be interesting to know how well the crew balancing service eastwards is used.
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