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Author Topic: Intercity Express Programme (IEP) - ongoing discussion  (Read 743718 times)
4064ReadingAbbey
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« Reply #435 on: August 05, 2014, 15:05:17 »

This means, for a start, that there will probably be two or three SETs (Super Express Train (now IET)) on hot standby each and every day.

Not wishing to undermine many other of your quite possibly very valid points, but, as far as the passenger is concerned, is having a small number of standby sets necessarily a bad thing to give a little more scope to recover from delays/train failures and reduce the number of cancelled trains?

Absolutely not - as a passenger I'm all for it. But...one has to realise that these things come with a price and one wonders whether people are aware of what that price is?

Somewhere I read an analysis of the predicted availability of the SETs on the Western. I seem to remember that the conclusion was that it was quite low by modern standards, partially due to the variety of sub-categories of SETs, meaning that, for example, one couldn't expect an electric set to be used as a hot standby for a Cotswold line train and a five-coach bi-mode might be too small for a Bristol service.

Another other knock-on effect is that, at the moment, an HST (High Speed Train) failure at Paddington can be covered, to a certain extent, by using a set planned for a later service but as the SETs aren't planned to go to the West of England, a dedicated HST would probably be needed at Paddington for these trains. This would increase the number of standby trains in London by at least one unless the HST could be used to substitute for a failed SET.

Anyway, this is really all academic! There shouldn't be so many train failures with these brand-new, state-of-the-art trains compared to the current fleet. They are electric, right? And everyone tells me that electrics are more reliable... Wink
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broadgage
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« Reply #436 on: August 05, 2014, 16:08:59 »

I fear a lot of breakdowns, and despite the costs therefore favour relatively generous provision of spare trains.

My concern is not so much mechanical failure as software and computer faults.
Diesel engines and electric drives are mature technologies, and most types of failure would leave the train still able to move. With suitable design, a reasonable level of redundancy can be built in such that failure of a single mechanical or electrical component is unlikely to disable the train.

With ever increasing complexity and more reliance on computers, I fear software related delays when the safety protocols lock the brakes on for each real or imagined fault.
Unlike mechanical components, software is NEVER a mature technology "if it works reliably then it is obsolete" Increasingly strict safety rules may also increase the risk of failures, with the train being considered as a failure if the PA (Public Address) is not working, or even if the computer "thinks" that the PA MIGHT not be working, for example.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
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« Reply #437 on: August 05, 2014, 19:29:30 »

Personally I'm a lot happier that Hitachi are building them and not Bombadier for some of the reasons 'broadgage' lists.  I see the major problem being how the diesel and electric modes and systems that operate off of them switch seamlessly during operation of the train as that is quite a new thing.  But otherwise I'm fairly confident that Hitachi will build a pretty reliable train, after all the Javelin trains were accepted into service many months early, and things like Train Management Systems (TMS), which were an emerging technology when the 180s were built, are now a fairly mature technology and standard installation on new trains.
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4064ReadingAbbey
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« Reply #438 on: August 05, 2014, 19:39:25 »

I can fill in some of the figures. Your are quite right that the IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.) payments include maintenance and cleaning and the running of the depots - but crucially it also includes the financing costs. ...

Many thanks for that detailed post (I've not quoted it back fully in consideration of mobile device users!

Very useful to see my guesses turned into something less than a guess - much more clarity in the figures.   I am however going to ask is some of the staffing cost also goes across to the IEP budget.   And perhaps the elephant in the room is the franchise payments - how much and in which direction - which will have such a huge impact on the balance sheet and thus on the required income from the farebox.

Quote
Net franchise payments to Govt.                                                       ^165 million

Turn that on your 2013 figures (artificial, because of so many other changes, but probably the best data set we could use) into a net franchise payment of ^65 million instead, and you don't need to load it all onto fares.   Depends how greedy the government is / how much effective tax it wants to apply to train travel.

Quote
It doesn't matter how one looks at the figures, this IEP procurement will be a millstone around the railway industry's neck for decades to come unless the Government can find some way to reduce the rents that the TOCs (Train Operating Company) have to pay. It beggars belief that fGW can increase the income per coach per month by three times - which it will need to do to in order to pay for the train under the existing procurement regime.

Thats assuming the same / proportionately the same franchise payment level, which is a political decision to a degree.  The commercial companies (First, Stagecoach, National Express, Arriva, Go-Ahead, SNCF (Societe Nationale des Chemins de fer Francais - French National Railways) and the rest) will bid based on what they are guided to believe they can do with fares.

Quote
A cynic might suggest that the Government are using the passengers from Swindon to subsidise jobs in the North-East - I couldn't possibly comment.

That, surely, depends again on the sort of bid guidance and franchise payment level.   Heck, we don't yet know whether we're looking at 10 months, 3 years or 5 years from September 2015 for a likely direct award - all we do know it that by EU» (European Union - about) rules nothing can be finally signed until March 2015 on that front, and we have an election in May ...

fGW employs around 5,000 staff. As I understand it those directly affected by the introduction of the SETs (Super Express Train (now IET)) on the London - Bristol - Swansea services will be those concerned with the maintenance and cleaning of the HSTs (High Speed Train) at Old Oak, St. Philip's Marsh and Landore. I have no information about the staffing levels at each depot, but I guess the total would be around 150 at each site including support staff. I imagine that these staff would transfer to Agility Trains at its sites at Old Oak, Stoke Gifford and Swansea. There may be changes in the traction control headquarters functions but I would expect the introduction of the SETs to reduce fGW's headcount by less than 10 per cent.

The magnitude of the franchise payments (or subsidies) depends, as you suggest on a whole raft of questions and predictions on the way things will develop. However, one should not lose sight of the core issue - the new trains will be much more expensive than the existing ones and the questions all come down to the same basic issue - how will the excess cost be divided between fare-payers and tax-payers?

To get a feel for the size of the problem - the predicted annual rent for the SETs (^300 million) is about one third of fGW's total annual turnover...

If the extra money comes from fare-payers, then the DfT» (Department for Transport - about) has procured too many SETs.  Smiley If it comes from tax-payers then re-doubling Thingley Junction has moved well out into the future...

That is, essentially, the choice which has to be made.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2014, 19:47:10 by 4064ReadingAbbey » Logged
grahame
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« Reply #439 on: August 06, 2014, 01:35:36 »

To get a feel for the size of the problem - the predicted annual rent for the SETs (Super Express Train (now IET)) (^300 million) is about one third of fGW's total annual turnover...

If the extra money comes from fare-payers, then the DfT» (Department for Transport - about) has procured too many SETs.  Smiley If it comes from tax-payers then re-doubling Thingley Junction has moved well out into the future...

That is, essentially, the choice which has to be made.

Hmmm - yes ... many thanks for helping me / us get an idea of the scale of things;  good to see more data as we were (and to an extent still are) comparing apples and oranges - but at least we have guestimates of the size of differential in terms of staffing transferring from one cost line item to another.

Yet elements of the choice may also have political aspects and your "if" conditions may not be quite as fixed as you imply.  Stranger things have happened.  I would agree that it looks expensive, and I'm left asking "so where does the extra money go" - is it via the leasings and guarantees to the companies providing the trains and the financing, which in turn as you suggest bring work to the north east, and shareholder profit for the bankers, manufacturers and owners?   And if that helps pension funds, is it totally a problem?   

I'm getting on to thin ice and sense we're in dangerous territory here that's a long way from rail operation;  I have trouble understanding the money-go-round of franchise payments and to the Network Rail / TOC (Train Operating Company) to and fro, let alone this bigger topic.  And I fear that much of it is accountant-speak in terms of what's good and bad and where something is justified or not, and we'll probably end up sharing opinions and ideas (and, yes, at times I play devil's advocate) rather than coming to a specific answer.
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« Reply #440 on: September 07, 2014, 11:28:52 »

From the Western Morning News:

Quote
Westcountry train manufacturing suppliers chosen to supply new Intercity Express Programme

Train construction suppliers in the Westcountry have been given a boost after an international company won a Government contract for the new Intercity Express Programme.

Two Somerset-based suppliers and one firm from Cornwall are among 30 UK (United Kingdom)-based suppliers to have been chosen by Hitachi Rail Europe to build the ^5.8 billion Government project.

It comes as the Japanese company said it would source 72% of its parts, systems and operations from UK firms.

Somerset-based Brecknell Willis will supply pantographs for the new trains while, fuel tanks will come from Johnson Security, located in Gloucester, brake systems from Somerset-based Knorr-Bremse and flooring from Cornwall-based Tiflex.

Business Secretary Vince Cable MP (Member of Parliament) who was in the Westcountry this week to visit the Aerohub at the Newquay airport and the innovation centre in Treliske, Truro, welcomed Hitachi^s decision.

He said: ^Hitachi^s decision to work with suppliers from across the country shows that the UK is advancing as a global leader in rail manufacturing.

^The Government is committed to helping companies attract inward investment to develop strong, coordinated and competitive supply chains here in the UK.

"We have created a new Rail Supply Chain Forum to help British businesses win work both here and abroad and I am greatly encouraged to see that world leading companies such as Hitachi are placing their confidence in UK suppliers.^

Jamie Foster, procurement director at Hitachi Rail Europe, said: ^We are delighted to be working with so many suppliers from across the UK in building our new Class 800 series trains for the Intercity Express Programme.

^Given the high requirements for quality and reliability of our trains, we were keen to work with companies that share our values in this regard.

^As the first three pre-series trains are now being manufactured in our factory, I cannot emphasise enough the high quality and quantity of services our suppliers have provided on the project thus far. We will continue working closely with each of them across the rest of the manufacturing and delivery schedule.^

Paul Goodhand, managing director of Knorr-Bremse Rail Systems UK said the Hitachi announcement was a welcome boost for his firm. He said: "We are committed and indeed look forward, to supporting Hitachi Rail Europe in their UK manufacturing efforts, not only on the initial supply and commissioning of the brake system on this exciting new train, but also on providing support through its entire lifecycle, some twenty eight years into the future."

Barry Curtis, sales manager with Flooring, Treadmaster Flooring - Tiflex Ltd, added: "This project will strengthen our relationship, give us additional opportunities to work closely on new projects in the future and promote our profile in the industry."

The Intercity Express Programme is a ^5.8bn Government project to replace the ageing Intercity 125 fleet on the East Coast and Great Western Main Lines with new high-speed trains.

Trains destined for the Great Western main line will be introduced in December 2017.

The East Coast main line will see the first new trains go into passenger service in 2018.

The final delivery of all trains for the Great Western and East Coast main lines will be completed by 2018.

Small correction. Knorr-Bremse are based in Wiltshire, not Somerset.
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Chris from Nailsea
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« Reply #441 on: September 07, 2014, 12:52:29 »

In Melksham, I believe?  Grin
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« Reply #442 on: September 12, 2014, 19:24:50 »

And here's a picture of the first pre-production series class 800 outside the Hitachi Kasado factory in Japan.

http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/single-view/view/hitachi-class-800-trainsets-begin-testing-in-japan.html

Unsurprisingly looks very similar to the class 395
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« Reply #443 on: September 13, 2014, 09:45:31 »

And here's a picture of the first pre-production series class 800 outside the Hitachi Kasado factory in Japan.

http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/single-view/view/hitachi-class-800-trainsets-begin-testing-in-japan.html

Unsurprisingly looks very similar to the class 395

I wonder what messer's  Churchward, Collett, Gouch, Armstrong, Hawksworth and Dean would say
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« Reply #444 on: September 13, 2014, 09:50:33 »

And here's a picture of the first pre-production series class 800 outside the Hitachi Kasado factory in Japan.

http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/single-view/view/hitachi-class-800-trainsets-begin-testing-in-japan.html

Unsurprisingly looks very similar to the class 395

Interesting comments in the text of that article regarding catering provision.
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« Reply #445 on: September 15, 2014, 12:08:42 »

I was wondering a while back if these sets would be named on the Great Western.  If so, (and from a personal point of view) I'd like them to be named as a "class", rather than at random as seems to be at present on the HST (High Speed Train) power cars. 

If that were to be the case, what would other correspondents choose as a class for the IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s?  (Kings, and other stately homes excepted!)
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« Reply #446 on: September 15, 2014, 12:32:32 »

If that were to be the case, what would other correspondents choose as a class for the IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s? 

A pride of places to visit by rail on them and on connecting services?
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« Reply #447 on: September 15, 2014, 12:44:59 »

I was wondering a while back if these sets would be named on the Great Western.  If so, (and from a personal point of view) I'd like them to be named as a "class", rather than at random as seems to be at present on the HST (High Speed Train) power cars. 

If that were to be the case, what would other correspondents choose as a class for the IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s?  (Kings, and other stately homes excepted!)
Personally, I don't agree with naming multiple units (except 153s), as a name to me should be applied to single vehicles not whole sets (eg. Pullman coaches are/were individually named).

The named trains (eg. the Red Dragon and Golden Hind) though in my opinion should remain as-is with the name shown on the LED destination displays (not sure what will happen to the Pembroke Coast Express though, one hopes they will keep enough IC125s for Plymouth and Penzance in order to spare some for the Pembroke Dock trains)).
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« Reply #448 on: September 15, 2014, 16:18:07 »

Would it be economical to use a HST (High Speed Train) set that will likely, in the future, have to come from Laira, for the one day a week (and in the Summer only) London<->Pembroke Dock services?

Also begs the question whether it would be economical to clear the route for the bi-mode IEPs (Intercity Express Program / Project.). I hope the Pembroke Coast Express can continue beyond IEP introduction, but worry that the economic case may not stack up.

As for naming the IEP with a 'class', how about Victoria Cross and George Cross recipients? VCs for the Class 801 and GCs» (Great Central Railway - link to heritage line) for the Class 800, or vice versa.
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« Reply #449 on: September 15, 2014, 19:42:55 »

-------------------------

As for naming the IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.) with a 'class', how about Victoria Cross and George Cross recipients? VCs for the Class 801 and GCs» (Great Central Railway - link to heritage line) for the Class 800, or vice versa.

IMO (in my opinion), that would be an excellent idea.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
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