Intercity Express Programme (IEP) - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[Bmblbzzz]

If the upgrade to Bristol is completed by January 2017, then IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) will treat us all to the benefits of electric travel. The bi-mode jobs are coming first anyway, aren't they? So long as all is well by February 2018, then away we go. That's over 2 years away.

Absolutely no hope of the wires reaching to Bristol in 15 months.  The best that might happen is wires as far as Swindon and then the bi-modes run on diesel from there to Temple Meads (and therefore at lower speed as far as Box). But even that is I suspect unlikely.

Lower speed than what? Sorry if that sounds like a silly question, but do you mean lower than electric (in which case, if it's the same as current diesel trains, then no big change) or lower than now (because, presumably, bimodes in diesel mode are slower than diesels)?

[stuving]

I've not found a lot of official information about the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) contract and financing, apart from last year's NAO report: HC 531 "Procuring new trains", which did consider the implications of delay.

For the GW^▸ (Great Western) trains, this is considered in two parts - delay to electrification, which rules out running the 801s and increases the diesel usage of the 800s, and delaying the start of all trains. The figures quoted are "up to" 0.4 and 0.8 ^M per weekday - consistent with the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) letter quoted in the recent reports.

• For Intercity Express, the most significant infrastructure upgrade is Network Rail^s
  electrification of 235 miles of the Great Western route. This covers the routes
  between London Paddington, Bristol and Swansea. Half of the Great Western
  Intercity Express fleet (189 carriages in total) will run solely on electric power.
  The electrification work must be completed in time for these trains to be introduced
  as planned in early 2018. We understand this work is currently over budget and the
  Department has highlighted it as a key risk. If the electrified sections are not available,
  the Department may have to pay any losses Agility Trains incurs as a result, which
  the Department estimates could be up to ^0.4 million per day. The Department has
  sought to reduce this risk by scheduling delivery of the ^bi-mode^ trains capable of
  operating without electrified infrastructure before the electric trains are delivered.

4.3 An additional risk to the Department relates to works to connect the new Intercity
Express train depots to the main lines. Network Rail is building the connections, but the
Department would be liable for any losses if the trains cannot access the network if the
connections are not complete. The Department told us that these works are currently
planned to be delivered in advance of when they are needed. Should trains not be able
to enter service as a result of delays to infrastructure enhancements, the Department
estimates these liabilities at up to ^0.8 million per day for the Great Western fleet and
^1.0 million per day for the East Coast fleet.

[ChrisB]

Lower speed than what? Sorry if that sounds like a silly question, but do you mean lower than electric (in which case, if it's the same as current diesel trains, then no big change) or lower than now (because, presumably, bimodes in diesel mode are slower than diesels)?

I think he means that the 800s will only do 110 on diesel (and under the wires, or is that 125), while the 801s will do 125 under the wires.

[John R]

The IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s will have a max speed of 100mph on diesel power, so between Swindon and Box they will be travelling slower than the current HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s.

From the Hitachi website:-

The AT300 trains are a train platform developed by Hitachi Rail. Their most famous relatives in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) are the Class 395 Javelin^ train currently in service in Kent and the Class 800/801 train for the Intercity Express Programme. This family of trains is designed for intercity travel, with speeds of up to 140 mph for the Class 395 Javelin and 125 mph for the Class 800/801 trains for electric operation and 100 mph for bi-mode operation. The Class AT300 has larger fuel tanks than the Class 800 bi-mode trains and engines that operate at a higher power output.

[TaplowGreen]

MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) were furious to learn that the cost of the project has mushroomed from ^1.6 billion a year ago - and ^874 million in 2013 - to between ^2.5 billion and ^2.8 billion.
But the inquiry was also told it was now "highly likely" that the timetable to electrify to Bristol by 2016, to Cardiff by 2017 and to Swansea by 2018 would be missed.

I hope there happens to be a friendly Chinese government around when HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) hits the buffers headlines in 2048 or whenever - not that I shall be around to be concerned 

If this was happening under a Chinese Government, I suspect that those responsible would be enjoying a last cigarette before being put up against a wall.

[DidcotPunter]

First IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) (800002) delivered to North Pole Depot last Friday night:

http://www.railmagazine.com/news/network/2015/10/26/inside-north-pole-as-first-800-reaches-hitachi-depot

[Bmblbzzz]

The IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s will have a max speed of 100mph on diesel power, so between Swindon and Box they will be travelling slower than the current HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s.

From the Hitachi website:-

The AT300 trains are a train platform developed by Hitachi Rail. Their most famous relatives in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) are the Class 395 Javelin^ train currently in service in Kent and the Class 800/801 train for the Intercity Express Programme. This family of trains is designed for intercity travel, with speeds of up to 140 mph for the Class 395 Javelin and 125 mph for the Class 800/801 trains for electric operation and 100 mph for bi-mode operation. The Class AT300 has larger fuel tanks than the Class 800 bi-mode trains and engines that operate at a higher power output.

Clear, thanks.

[stuving]

The IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s will have a max speed of 100mph on diesel power

I'm not sure that's a logical deduction from the evidence.

This is what the IEP specification says:

TS261 The IEP Trains must have a maximum service speed of at least 125mph and shall be able to achieve that speed on the whole of the IEP Network. The requirement to be able to operate at 125mph applies during operation in Standard Mode and Locomotive Hauled Mode.
It is accepted that 125mph may not be achieved under the following circumstances:

• on adverse gradients;
• in excessive headwinds;
• in the case of an IEP Train containing Bi-mode IEP Units operating in Self Power Mode;

[...]

I take it this is a User Requirement, which may excuse its non-technical terminology, though perhaps not its use of "maximum". That word should be banned from all specifications, as it is ambiguous - and note it conflicts with the "at least" that follows. "IEP Network" looks like a term that should be defined in the spec., but it isn't. And what counts as an adverse gradient? You can't tell from this.

There is no second speed specified for the bi-modes - just the specific modelled journey times that are required later on. That process leads to the on-board power capacity, and that in turn leads to a "100 mph" performance as a prediction. Those modelled journeys will also dictate in practice whether the 125 mph capability is in fact needed up some lesser gradients.

The text on the Hitachi site looks like a PR^▸ (Public Relations) rewrite of that, and it still refers to the design speed. Neither version says unequivocally that no higher speed than 100 mph (or whatever) shall be permitted in self-powered mode. Nor should it - I can't see why there would be any technical reason to impose a lower speed limit than 125 mph, even in self-powered mode. After all, if the on-board generators can provide enough power to go faster than 100 mph, and the train and its drive train can manage 125 mph, why would either sub-system controller object?

[ChrisB]

The IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s will have a max speed of 100mph on diesel power

I'm not sure that's a logical deduction from the evidence.

I was corrected....

From the Hitachi website:-

The AT300 trains are a train platform developed by Hitachi Rail. Their most famous relatives in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) are the Class 395 Javelin™ train currently in service in Kent and the Class 800/801 train for the Intercity Express Programme. This family of trains is designed for intercity travel, with speeds of up to 140 mph for the Class 395 Javelin and 125 mph for the Class 800/801 trains for electric operation and 100 mph for bi-mode operation. The Class AT300 has larger fuel tanks than the Class 800 bi-mode trains and engines that operate at a higher power output.

[Worcester_Passenger]

I've not found a lot of official information about the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) contract and financing, apart from last year's NAO report: HC 531 "Procuring new trains", which did consider the implications of delay.

For the GW^▸ (Great Western) trains, this is considered in two parts - delay to electrification, which rules out running the 801s and increases the diesel usage of the 800s, and delaying the start of all trains. The figures quoted are "up to" 0.4 and 0.8 ^M per week - consistent with the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) letter quoted in the recent reports.

• For Intercity Express, the most significant infrastructure upgrade is Network Rail^s
  electrification of 235 miles of the Great Western route. ... If the electrified sections are not available,
  the Department may have to pay any losses Agility Trains incurs as a result, which
  the Department estimates could be up to ^0.4 million per day. The Department has
  sought to reduce this risk by scheduling delivery of the ^bi-mode^ trains capable of
  operating without electrified infrastructure before the electric trains are delivered.

4.3 An additional risk to the Department relates to works to connect the new Intercity
Express train depots to the main lines. Network Rail is building the connections, but the
Department would be liable for any losses if the trains cannot access the network if the
connections are not complete. ... Should trains not be able
to enter service as a result of delays to infrastructure enhancements, the Department
estimates these liabilities at up to ^0.8 million per day for the Great Western fleet and
^1.0 million per day for the East Coast fleet.

Are the figures per day or per week?

[stuving]

Are the figures per day or per week?

My mistake - sorry - all those figures are per day.

[stuving]

Now here's a thing - and one one I can't find mentioned on this forum. Hull Trains announced an order for five new trains on 3rd September, but it got rather hidden by the Newton Aycliffe opening ceremony. Their news release studiously avoided calling it an order, or naming Hitachi, but did say:

Hull Trains officially announced today that it has plans to invest 68million in a fleet of Bi-Mode trains, which are capable of both electric, and diesel operation. The firm has also commenced an industry consultation process to secure track access for at least another ten years.

If these plans are successful, then the units are expected to enter service in 2020 and will bring multiple economic, social and environmental benefits.

Speed of the units will reach up to 140mph compared to the current 125mph capacity of Hull Trains^ Class 180 units. The company^s fleet will also increase to five units with up to 320 seats on each, meaning a 50% increase in the number of sears for passengers.

There is more detail in the specialist press, evidently gained by talking to them and Hitachi on the day. For example this is from Railway Gazette:

East Yorkshire to London open access inter-city operator Hull Trains announced a ^68m plan to order five Hitachi electro-diesel multiple-units on September 3.

These would enter service in 2020, subject to the successful completion of negotiations with infrastructure manager Network Rail and regulator ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) for a new 10-year track access agreement which would start when Hull Trains^ current rights end in 2019. A leasing company to finance the order has not yet been selected.

Hull Trains said the five-car Hitachi trainsets would have 320 seats, compared to 266 on its existing fleet of Alstom Class 180 five-car diesel multiple-units. They would be capable of running at up to 225 km/h, subject to line speeds being increased from the current 200 km/h limit.

^The new units will bring an even higher quality environment for passengers with new interiors, enhanced catering, air-conditioning and a quieter environment due to electric traction, all areas that we know are important to passengers^, said  Managing Director Will Dunnett.

In a message to stakeholders, Dunnett said the track access application included the purchase of the electro-diesel trains because of ^uncertainty around the government^s plans for electrification of the Trans-Pennine route.^

Hull Trains is involved in the development of plans for electrification of the route from Hull to the East Coast Main Line, but ^the bi-mode units deliver the benefits of electrification now^, said Dunnett. ^They also ensure that we can continue to serve stations such as Beverley after electrification of the Hull to Selby track is completed. The dual-function of the units also means that we can keep passengers on trains during disruption, which we would not be able to do in fully-electric units.^

Some of the general press (and Wikipedia) have named these as IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) or class 800, but presumably an AT300 variant is more likely. Maybe another go-faster stripe near the engines? Or does just the route being flat enough mean that the slight uprating for GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)'s SW route trains will do? I think we know that the underlying Hitachi train design can manage 225 km/hr.

[John R]

They talk about "plans", and "if these plans are successful".  So I think we can conclude that nothing has been signed yet, and won't be until (if) they get their 10 year track access extension confirmed.

[ChrisB]

Hence no reference to an 'order'

[John R]

Hence no reference to an 'order'

Yep. Those that craft this sort of press release have to be very careful with their wording. But at first glance, you can see why people might be misled into thinking that an order had been made, without looking carefully at the subtlety of the wording.