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Author Topic: Great Western Invitation to Tender issued today (Friday 27 July 2012)  (Read 38558 times)
TonyK
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« Reply #45 on: August 15, 2012, 17:18:32 »

Agreed: the more I read the ITT (Invitation to Tender), and the associated briefings and documents, the more it becomes rather painfully clear that they were all 'rushed out' at the last minute.


Being fair, though, they've only had a few years' notice.
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TonyK
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« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2012, 23:49:49 »

The most worrying part of this press release id the paragraph that starts:
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^For the first time on the Great Western franchise, we will be introducing requirements on passenger satisfaction for the train operator to meet
I work in what may be termed the "public sector", and know that the entire energy of the successful bidder will be aimed at ticking the box here, rather than satisfying passengers. I admire Justine Greening's spirit, if not her politics, and the same is true of Theresa Villiers, but the way government works, it is unlikely that either of them will be around the transport arena when this all goes live.


Just spotted this old post of mine. Who'd be a prophet, eh?
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« Reply #47 on: October 03, 2012, 15:50:01 »

Going back to an earlier post, FGW (First Great Western) did run a Paddington to Stratford HST (High Speed Train) some years ago. Given that it's one of the biggest tourist destinations in the country I'm surprised they abandoned the service.

And the idea about re-opening Stratford to Honeybourne is "intriguing" as the trackbed down to Long Marston is now a cycle way and somebody has built some industrial units across the old trackbed at Long Marston. Not that these problems are insuperable but it would cost a bit. Also potential conflict with the GWR (Great Western Railway) steam service as and when they get north of Broadway (unless GWR want to reinstate the old east curve linking to the main line east of Honeybourne) - and don't laugh as the GWR have just completed a ^1 million plus fundraising to carry out repairs and invest for the future.
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« Reply #48 on: October 03, 2012, 16:13:36 »

And the idea about re-opening Stratford to Honeybourne is "intriguing" as the trackbed down to Long Marston is now a cycle way and somebody has built some industrial units across the old trackbed at Long Marston. Not that these problems are insuperable but it would cost a bit.

Not to mention two great big roundabouts and half a kilometre of the Stratford Bypass!  It falls squarely into the 'Can't ever see it happening' bracket to me.
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« Reply #49 on: October 03, 2012, 16:46:07 »

II & FTN should read the following from the Oxford Mail and also the Stratford D.C. report from the link at the end of the article:
Study establishes a good case for reinstating Stratford to Oxford link

2:00pm Wednesday 3rd October 2012 in News Photograph of the Author By Jamie Brooks, Contact me on 01865 425422

A STUDY of proposals to reinstate a Rail link between Oxford and Stratford-upon-Avon has found there is a good case for the idea.

Consultants Arup carried out a ^70,000 four-month study into the prospects for the reopening of a rail connection from the Cotswold Line, which connects Oxford and Worcester, to the Warwickshire tourist hotspot.

Their report says that reinstatement of the railway from Stratford to nearby Long Marston is feasible, along with improvements to the existing freight-only branch line from Long Marston to Honeybourne, on the Cotswold Line.

And the report adds that forecasts of potential passenger numbers on trains between Stratford and Oxford and Stratford and Worcester could see services turning an operating profit soon after the line is restored.

Trains could also be extended beyond Oxford to London, or from Stratford to Leamington Spa.

The consultants recommend hourly trains on each route, which, combined with an hourly service on the Cotswold Line, would mean trains at least half-hourly throughout the day at West Oxfordshire stations including Hanborough, Charlbury and Kingham.

A report to the cabinet of Stratford-on-Avon District Council, which co-ordinated the study, says that it is now up to the rail industry, local enterprise partnerships and the Department for Transport to take the scheme forward.
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Councillors are being asked at a meeting on Monday to consider the study^s findings when drawing up a core planning strategy and to safeguard the former rail route from development that could hamper its reopening.

The study said the cost of work to reinstate the missing section of the line, improve the Long Marston branch line and rebuild a triangular junction at Honeybourne to allow trains to run direct to and from Oxford, would be ^76m, although an allowance for extra costs, based on advice from Network Rail, could push this figure up to ^96.9m.

John Ellis, chairman of the Cotswold Line Promotion Group, which represents passengers, was a member of the steering group set up by the council to oversee the study.

He said: ^I think we have got a very good base from the study, which I am pleased with. We will continue to keep going, referencing the study and looking for further support for the implementation of the scheme.^

The connection at Honeybourne allowing direct running between Oxford and Stratford was closed in 1965, while the Long Marston-Stratford section was shut in 1976.

    The study report is online at http://democracy.stratford.gov.uk/mgConvert2PDF.aspx?ID=18911
 
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« Reply #50 on: October 03, 2012, 16:57:49 »

II & FTN should read the following from the Oxford Mail and also the Stratford D.C. report from the link at the end of the article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
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Andrew1939 from West Oxon
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« Reply #51 on: October 03, 2012, 17:04:09 »

Terminal Junkie should remember actuality. The Cotswold Line redoubling project was rejected by NR» (Network Rail - home page) as being totally uneconomic investment but just a few years later was approved and is now in use. The Stratford/Honeybourne link looks a very forlorn case to me from the report as it seems to rely on the minimum investment with the maximum forecast use to get to a BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) that could be considered for investment. However do not discount what enough political lobbying can sometimes do.
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TonyK
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« Reply #52 on: October 03, 2012, 19:06:40 »

It's very interesting, and as it says in the report, done to equivalent GRIP3 standard. Might happen, might not, time will tell.
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« Reply #53 on: October 03, 2012, 20:34:42 »

No doubt would be a very useful connection but a lot of money would be needed - I would never say it can't be done. Also, I think the Cotswold redoubling was easier to achieve.
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« Reply #54 on: October 04, 2012, 13:03:10 »

II & FTN should read the following from the Oxford Mail and also the Stratford D.C. report from the link at the end of the article:
Study establishes a good case for reinstating Stratford to Oxford link

Having read the study (thanks for providing the link), I can certainly vouch that they have done a thorough job, though a few things worry me about the report.  And for those reasons I haven't changed my mind!

Firstly, unless I've missed it, there is no reference whatsoever to the redoubling of the Wolvercote to Charlbury and Evesham to Norton Junction sections.  These would both be needed in order to provide the train paths they want for their hourly service from Stratford to Worcester and Oxford.  Neither currently feature in CP5 (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019), which at the end of in 2019 this scheme is hoped to be in operation according to the report.

Secondly, their BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) figure comes in at only 0.8:1 - if they massage the figures to include 6% year-on-year growth, an additional 10% in the first year, and the scheme costs less than they estimate they can just about get that to a figure of 2:1.  Now, I know that Benefit Cost Ratio's are highly subjective, and schemes shouldn't solely be judged on their BCR figures, but those figures seem extremely low.  Compare that with the East-West Rail's BCS of 6.3:1, a figure which doesn't take into account the 'sparks effect' of electrification or any 3rd party contributions and think how long it's taken that to get onto the 'going to be done' list.

Third, there is undoubtedly demand for a service from Oxford to Stratford and from Worcester to Stratford, but is there enough of a demand?  Journey time wise Oxford to Stratford via Leamington would take around 1h 20m and I can only see that being reduced by about 20 minutes at the most via this new route.  Journey times to/from London would barely improve on Chiltern's current operation, and involve a change at Oxford based on their financial modelling (though mention of a through service is made).  There is also no mention made of the possible reinstatement of the London/Oxford/Stratford service as specified in the Greater Western Franchise ITT (Invitation to Tender) - that would surely impact negatively on already poor BCR figures.

Finally, the biggest hurdle of all is that they recognise that both bats and newts are known to be in the area, so that means the scheme has no chance!  Wink
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« Reply #55 on: October 04, 2012, 13:17:41 »

.....

Finally, the biggest hurdle of all is that they recognise that both bats and newts are known to be in the area, so that means the scheme has no chance!  Wink

Talking of which, any word on the Evergreen 3 inquiry report ...?
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Andrew1939 from West Oxon
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« Reply #56 on: October 05, 2012, 15:03:41 »

I agree with II's comments on the Honeybourne/Stratford study. It does rely on a lot of optimistic factors all coming together to get to a BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) to justify the investment. However with regard to II's comment on redoubling the rest of the CL, in ther Wesstern Region region RUS (Route Utilisation Strategy) there was a statement to the effect that NR» (Network Rail - home page) was looking for an eventual redoubling of the Charlbury/Wolvercot section. I believe that this was not considered for CP 5 because the extensive resignalling works in the Oxford area would need to be completed before any track redoubling work could be undertaken. The Evesham/Norton redoubling was not mentioned in the RUS because it is off the Western Region territory.
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« Reply #57 on: October 21, 2012, 16:45:23 »

Going back to an earlier post, FGW (First Great Western) did run a Paddington to Stratford HST (High Speed Train) some years ago. Given that it's one of the biggest tourist destinations in the country I'm surprised they abandoned the service.

And the idea about re-opening Stratford to Honeybourne is "intriguing" as the trackbed down to Long Marston is now a cycle way and somebody has built some industrial units across the old trackbed at Long Marston. Not that these problems are insuperable but it would cost a bit. Also potential conflict with the GWR (Great Western Railway) steam service as and when they get north of Broadway (unless GWR want to reinstate the old east curve linking to the main line east of Honeybourne) - and don't laugh as the GWR have just completed a ^1 million plus fundraising to carry out repairs and invest for the future.

It wasn't abandoned as such, the SRA» (Strategic Rail Authority - about) as it was then decided to transfer London to Stratford services from FGW to Chiltern
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« Reply #58 on: October 21, 2012, 19:43:58 »

Was the FGW (First Great Western) service an HST (High Speed Train)?  When I caught it the train was always a Turbo.  Left Reading around 09:50 as I remember.
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« Reply #59 on: October 21, 2012, 20:06:00 »

I have often speculated whether Chiltern are making the most of the tourist opportunity with Stratford. In particular whether their silver trains would enable a high quality service that could run two trips a day, offering an early morning departure from London for day trippers, and mid morning return (for those checking out from Stratford), and a mid afternoon departure (for the theatre) and early evening return (for day trippers).

When Wrexham and Shropshire were operating it struck me that one of their sets could have done a return trip during the day and offered a premium service including food.

However, I do wonder whether well heeled foreign tourists are on tickets that mean Chiltern would get very little of the revenue, so that they would end up providing a service with very little reward.
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