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Author Topic: West Coast Main Line franchise shambles - possible impact on Great Western franchise?  (Read 58358 times)
stebbo
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« on: October 03, 2012, 10:52:58 »

So what impact will the shambles over the West Coast re-franchising have on the Great Western franchise bids. I cannot believe the shambles.
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RichardB
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2012, 11:11:29 »

Simple answer is that we don't know for definite.

What we do know is that, because the process has been "paused", bids will no longer need to be submitted on 25 October and everything will go on hold pending the results of the inquiry into rail franchising, due to report by 31 December.

If the report recommends significant changes to the franchise process, the whole Great Western franchise competition may need to be restarted.   If they aren't too significant, perhaps things can carry on with the four pre-qualified bidders.

Come what may, I think we now know the new Great Western franchise will not now start on 21 July 2013.  The DfT» (Department for Transport - about) can already ask FGW (First Great Western) to run the existing franchise for a further additional twelve weeks but it could well need much more than that.

As you say, stunning news today. 
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eightf48544
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2012, 11:19:05 »

Just a thought what if the four pre qualified bidders decided in the light of the WCML (West Coast Main Line) shambles that it's not worth wastig their shareholders money  bidding for a franchise.

DaFT» (Department for Transport - critical sounding abbreviation I discourage - about) couldn't leave the exisitng TOC (Train Operating Company) in charge so DOR would have to take over. Maybe as the Trout says that's what the conspiracy is all about.
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2012, 15:18:40 »

DOR aka BR (British Rail(ways)) say no more nod nod wink wink Wink Lips sealed
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2012, 21:28:12 »

So what impact will the shambles over the West Coast re-franchising have on the Great Western franchise bids. I cannot believe the shambles.

A big impact as the whole of the current franchising contract process has been brought into question and will have to wait for the results of an internal review, the Transport Select Committee now has justification to question future tendering process and I suspect the PM will want to scrutinise future processes and if some or the senior civil servants in the department have been suspended this could add more delay.

The franchising will now be running through the phony war on the lead up to the next General Election could be uncomfortable for the Government.

Very simple really, and mind boggling that DafT got it wrong. It's reputed that civil servants at DafT have hated Virgin ever since they were forced to renegotiate the first franchise in Virgin's favour (Virgin had them over a barrel after the downgrading of the WC (Wiltshire Council (Unitary Authority)) modernisation). So I do wonder whether it was less cock up and more conspiracy.

If "hatred of Virgin" by Civil Servants was the motivator said Civil Servants will be attending "meetings without coffee" and could drawing their pension early
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Oxman
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2012, 00:43:36 »

I am not aware that this has been said anywhere else yet, but one of the repercussions of this fiasco would seem to be that the existing franchise holders for the franchises that are currently the subject of the suspended bidding process will be asked to continue to manage the franchise until the investigations are complete, any changes that are required have been implemented, and the bidding process is safe to resume. Just as Virgin are being asked to do for the WCML (West Coast Main Line).

This would mean FGW (First Great Western) may see an extension to its contract way beyond April 2013 and way beyond the rumoured July 2013 date that was mooted as the start date for the new Great Western franchise, given the difficulties that existed before the current suspension.

I would not be surprised if FGW are asked to manage the franchise (on a management fee basis, as with Virgin on the WCML) until at least April 2014. This would be a sop to First Group, and might disuade them from legal action. Can anyone suggest an alternative?
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Chris from Nailsea
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2012, 17:32:16 »

Concerns are being raised -

From the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

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Rail franchise row 'threatens Great Western improvements'

The West Coast Main Line rail franchise row could mean a two-year delay to any train improvements in the south west of England, a passenger group has said.

A decision to award the line to FirstGroup was scrapped because of "technical flaws" in the bidding process, which are being investigated. Bidding for all British franchises is on hold while a review is carried out.

Questions are now being asked about knock-on effects to Great Western area, Travelwatch Southwest said.

Professor Jon Shaw, of the University of Plymouth, said the region was "dependent upon the new franchisee making the improvements". He said: "We're not going to have line electrification or new trains for a long time yet. It was smaller changes that franchisee was expected to deliver which we're gong to see the delay on."

Chris Irwin, from Travelwatch Southwest, said he was expecting about two years of delays, which was "very worrying". He said: "We're going to see a lot of projects not being delivered, such as new rolling stock, the new Paignton to Exeter half-hourly service, and improvements in Cornwall. Passengers are going to suffer."

In Cornwall, retaining the Penzance to London sleeper was also part of the proposed new franchise.

Sarah Newton, Conservative MP (Member of Parliament) for Truro and Falmouth, said she was reassured the government did understand the urgency. She said: "We're trying to second-guess what the review is going to find out. It may conclude that how the franchise is drawn up will proceed. At the moment, it is all just speculation."

Also from the BBC:

Quote
West Coast Mainline delay sparks rail improvement fears

Planned improvements to rail services in and around Bristol are at risk as a result of the West Coast Mainline franchise delay, an MP has warned.

Bristol West MP Stephen Williams (Lib Dem) said: "What I think is at risk is all the local improvements that we were looking forward to in Bristol. There were those services on the Severn Beach line, maybe a line out to Portishead, lines across north Bristol and making better use of those railway lines that we already have in Bristol that are closed to passenger traffic," added Mr Williams.

Chris Irwin, from TravelWatch SouthWest, said: "Things that we as passengers would have benefited from, the promised new vehicles, the promised new station improvements, promised minor infrastructure improvements, can make a lot of difference to daily travel. Those have undoubtedly not happened now. When they do happen, there'll be years of delay and congestion to make up for."

Apart from the risk of losing planned local rail improvements, the cost of the delay is also being raised.

"We're right back at the drawing board. In terms of how it's going to move forward it's going to be hard to say how much it's going to cost. Some people say it's just the ^40m the bids themselves cost, but if you talk to people in the industry they say 10 times the cost, but perhaps a 100 times might be a better figure - we might be talking billions," added Mr Irwin.
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Chris from Nailsea
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2012, 21:07:59 »

A video news report, from the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) - including quote from Chris Irwin of TravelWatch SouthWest:

Quote
Rail franchise delays could hamper network improvements

The delay in awarding new rail franchises could see knock-on effects for commuters on the First Great Western network.

Passenger groups warn as the operators seek compensation, improvements to the network could suffer.

Errors by the Department for Transport in the West Coast Main Line bidding process means the award of three new franchises across southern England is on hold while a review is carried out.
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William Huskisson MP (Member of Parliament) was the first person to be killed by a train while crossing the tracks, in 1830.  Many more have died in the same way since then.  Don't take a chance: stop, look, listen.

"Level crossings are safe, unless they are used in an unsafe manner."  Discuss.
Andy W
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2012, 06:54:09 »

This would mean FGW (First Great Western) may see an extension to its contract way beyond April 2013 and way beyond the rumoured July 2013 date that was mooted as the start date for the new Great Western franchise, given the difficulties that existed before the current suspension.

I would not be surprised if FGW are asked to manage the franchise (on a management fee basis, as with Virgin on the WCML (West Coast Main Line)) until at least April 2014. This would be a sop to First Group, and might disuade them from legal action. Can anyone suggest an alternative?
There are three things to consider at the present (IMHO (in my humble opinion))
1). First took the option to terminate the franchise 3 years early to avoid paying over ^800 million in franchise fees.
2). There is the new franchise tendering process which will now take an extended period.
3). There is the electrification prject.

Given that electrification will make any tendering even more fraught I would have thought the best option is to terminate the current franchise as already agreed. Let DOR run the operation throughout the electrification project and restart any new franchise only when the electrification project is completed.

Of course First could pay the ^800 million (less any compensation they are rightfully due) and continue a further 3 years as per the current franchise agreement.

I personally would prefer the DOR option - I'm sure Ollie & co would be just as professional as DOR employees.  Grin
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The SprinterMeister
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« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2012, 20:36:11 »

Given that electrification will make any tendering even more fraught I would have thought the best option is to terminate the current franchise as already agreed. Let DOR run the operation throughout the electrification project and restart any new franchise only when the electrification project is completed.

Of course First could pay the ^800 million (less any compensation they are rightfully due) and continue a further 3 years as per the current franchise agreement.

I personally would prefer the DOR option - I'm sure Ollie & co would be just as professional as DOR employees.  Grin

The ECML (East Coast Main Line) isn't to be honest a very good advert for DOR and I understand DfT» (Department for Transport - about) are having enough problems getting enough knowledgeable people recruited to run the potential WCML (West Coast Main Line) DOR operation.


Probably far better off leaving Firstgroup to run it as a management contract until such time as the bidding process is able to be restarted. That way the trains will continue to run using management skills learn't during the past Umpteen years of First operating trains out of Paddington. Rather than some bunch of no hopers recruited out of an old folks home or something.
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Chris from Nailsea
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2012, 21:51:14 »

From the Western Morning News:

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Civil servants running railways was a one-way ticket to disaster

Neill Mitchell laments the consequences of legislation in 2005 which reinstated direct state management of our railways, by Ministers and mandarins.

This week, ministers will be considering the findings of the first of the Department for Transport's two internal inquiries into the West Coast Mainline re-franchising fiasco. Hopefully, the outcome will be acknowledgement, at last, that DfT» (Department for Transport - about) ministers and civil servants must stop meddling in the business minutiae of UK (United Kingdom) rail management, for which Government is simply not equipped.

The failure of the DfT's franchising process is rooted in the provisions of the ill-conceived Railways Act 2005. A plethora of transport analysts, columnists, lobbyists and passenger representatives sounded the alarm, back in 2004, as the Railways Bill was passing through Parliament.

These concerns were well understood by the then Conservative opposition spokesperson, Tim Yeo MP (Member of Parliament), who said in the Commons a second reading of the Railways Bill would: "Increase the extent to which politicians and civil servants will interfere in the running of the railways."

Mr Yeo added: "Even in the darkest hours of British Rail, when state control of the railways was unquestioned, there was never a time when so much power was seized by the Secretary of State and his civil servants in the department.We should allow train operators the freedom that they need to respond to consumer demand, and we should take politicians and officials in the department right out of the running of the railways."

As the bill progressed, more warnings were sounded. David Wilshire MP said: "We (Conservatives) do not agree with passing responsibilities, duties and powers upwards, ever further from the franchisees and the passengers, and ever closer to politicians and civil servants."

Intriguingly, while the then Labour Minister of State for Transport MP Tony McNulty's responses were defensive of the competencies of government, even he alluded to the potential for inadequacies, saying: "We have always said that civil servants and ministers are not well placed to deal with the substance or details of such work (specific clauses in the bill) and should not ^ we will not ^ get involved".

Royal Assent was granted and so the Railways Act 2005 came into force, with a huge body of informed opinion still cautioning that the act had effectively re-nationalised the railways by stealth. Thus returning responsibility for the operation of the railway to ministers and civil servants and diminishing much of the private sector's role to that of being mere contracted service providers.

A year later, in July 2006, I wrote in Rail magazine that the evident lack of joined-up government called for the DfT to be dismembered and UK transport policy integrated with the competitiveness and regional development responsibilities of the then DTI. By 2007, the predicted rail franchising problems were becoming reality, most noticeably in respect of the diabolical ruin of the Gatwick Express.

Another of my articles, relating to ever tighter DfT micro-management of rolling stock procurement at that time, followed under the headline: "Danger!! The Civil Service Express is approaching (or is it?!)". In March 2008, Rail magazine itself highlighted widespread complaints across the rail industry that the DfT was "guilty of the worst kind of meddling, control-freakery and micro-management". In November 2008, Rail carried a further feature reporting that DfT was being branded by senior industry players as "arrogant, stupid and ridiculous". Its editor Nigel Harris said: "We have an out-of-touch, arrogant department which takes advice from no one, knows all the answers and dismisses all inconvenient truths. Well, that can only go on for so long ^ and senior railwaymen have finally had enough." As, indeed, has been so clearly signified by Richard Branson's recent action in seeking a judicial review of the DfT's incompetent process for awarding the West Coast Mainline franchise.

Sadly, the chickens have come home to roost, seemingly at what could prove to be astronomic cost to the taxpayer. Particularly so if all past franchising assumptions and methodology applied by DfT under the Railways Act 2005 should now be subjected to similar scrutiny by winners and unsuccessful bidders alike, not least in respect of the Gatwick Express saga.

The message has to be that undue meddling has cost both the DfT and the taxpayer dear. It must stop. Civil servants do have a role to play in formulating UK strategic rail development and funding priorities on behalf of the taxpayer, but the day-to-day business management of the railways should be left to those who know best ^ the operators and customers. As for those who advocate re-nationalisation, surely this Whitehall farce speaks conclusively for itself!
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William Huskisson MP (Member of Parliament) was the first person to be killed by a train while crossing the tracks, in 1830.  Many more have died in the same way since then.  Don't take a chance: stop, look, listen.

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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2012, 22:27:50 »

The above is a most intriguing article and shows the tendency to polarise the arguments in discussing the railways into the previous nationalisation model and the cry for almost total freedom of the market as business people know best.  IMHO (in my humble opinion) the lawyers who inhabit the Westminster village (some of whom are elected as MPs (Member of Parliament)) created a lawyers paradise in the current franchising system and the WCML (West Coast Main Line) debacle must seem like Heaven to them.  Returning to State control where the Treasury gainsays every attempt to improve and innovate is not the answer. First and Virgin, amongst others have done much to improve my experience as a customer passenger (although staring at a pillar instead of out of a window in a claustrophobic seat is excluded from that assessment).  I have a problem with profits gained because my taxes have subsidised a company leaving the the railway industry to go into private shareholders' pockets, but at least the companies provide me with a service and that I can use and complain about if need be.  I have no idea what the lawyers fees are purchasing or whether I am getting value for money, but I do know, from experience, that as soon as the Law gets involved, nothing gets any quicker and a a journey from Portishead to Bristol by train is disappearing into a distant future because of an over complex franchising system.  Cut the number of contracts within the industry and a fortune will be released, I suspect, to be spent on all sorts of loveliness - like seats with a view and faster decision making.

If I have offended any lawyers, I apologise.  I have no money so litigation will be fruitless.  Wink
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« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2012, 06:56:39 »

My guess on the GW (Great Western) franchise, DfT» (Department for Transport - about) will broker a deal with First to manage the GW for a period of time, in much the same way they have with Virgin, First handed the keys in early (iaw the T & C's of the franchise) to avoid paying in their view an excessive fee.

DfT will not want to run a franchise unless they really have to its hard work for them and exposes the Dept to risk adverse publicity as well as financial
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« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2012, 12:07:27 »

in much the same way they have with Virgin

Has that decision been made? Only news I've seen are the press releases from both the DfT» (Department for Transport - about) and Virgin on 15th October saying they are in negotiation. I've not seen any announcement that an agreement has been reach for Virgin to continue operating the ICWC (InterCity West Coast) franchise.
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« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2012, 13:02:20 »

Well it will either be Virgin or no trains operating from December. There simply isn't time now for anybody else to take over.
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