Call for faster, non-stop expresses from Wales to London

[whole diary]

[grahame]

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-opinion/not-reintroduce-direct-rail-link-6263935?

I wonder if it^s worth reviving the old Pullman-type service twice a day on the Great Western Main line to Paddington? When the high speed diesel service came in 40 years ago, it was the bees knees.

Cardiff to Paddington came down from 2hrs 30mins hours to 1hr 55mins, but twice a day it was 1hr 43mins! Faster than today! The trick was ensuring that those two up trains were given priority over freight and were nonstop from Newport. I used to commute regularly to London back then. Every week I would catch the 7.25am from Cardiff and arrive reliably in Paddington at 9.07am.

To try to keep pace with the 49 minutes journey time on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) for the 135 miles from Euston to Birmingham by 2026, if Cardiff had a limited Pullman service not stopping after Newport, cutting out Bristol Parkway, Swindon, Didcot Parkway and Reading, 85 minutes for the 150 miles to Paddington would keep our end up, as it were.

And that's from Rhodri Morgan ... former first minister of Wales

[Btline]

Hopefully Dicot and Swindon stops will be removed from Cardiff services after electrification, when Bristol - London goes up to 4 tph.

[grahame]

Hopefully Dicot and Swindon stops will be removed from Cardiff services after electrification, when Bristol - London goes up to 4 tph.

Hopefully services and connections will be improved - or at least remain available - from Oxford, Didcot, Chippenham and Swindon to Newport, Cardiff and further west. Such, in terms of passenger numbers, are significant flows.

Hopefully we won't see multiple paths eaten up by occasional vanity trains which run with otherwise under-utilised stock, break up clock face operation for other services, and have passengers moving their journeys up or down by half an hour from ideal time to catch the "Green Dragon" which is 10 minutes faster. Such was possible and perhaps sensible in the days gone by when the main lines only carried about a half of the services now running, and a train journey was an adventure rather than a regular trip, or even a commute.

[ellendune]

Hopefully Dicot and Swindon stops will be removed from Cardiff services after electrification, when Bristol - London goes up to 4 tph.

Hopefully services and connections will be improved - or at least remain available - from Oxford, Didcot, Chippenham and Swindon to Newport, Cardiff and further west. Such, in terms of passenger numbers, are significant flows.

Hopefully we won't see multiple paths eaten up by occasional vanity trains which run with otherwise under-utilised stock, break up clock face operation for other services, and have passengers moving their journeys up or down by half an hour from ideal time to catch the "Green Dragon" which is 10 minutes faster. Such was possible and perhaps sensible in the days gone by when the main lines only carried about a half of the services now running, and a train journey was an adventure rather than a regular trip, or even a commute.

IIRC^▸ (if I recall/remember/read correctly) the proposal is that the additional Bristol TM^‡(resolve) via Parkway trains are not scheduled to stop at Swindon.  Please remember that Swindon has a population of 209,000 that makes it larger than the Borough of Reading (155,000), though the Reading Wokingham area has a larger population (300,000).  However, unlike Reading, there are no local stations around Swindon so all the flows from the surrounding area are concentrated here.

There is a considerable flow of passengers from Swindon both to Bristol, the South West and South Wales.

[Electric train]

Hopefully Dicot and Swindon stops will be removed from Cardiff services after electrification, when Bristol - London goes up to 4 tph.

Hopefully services and connections will be improved - or at least remain available - from Oxford, Didcot, Chippenham and Swindon to Newport, Cardiff and further west. Such, in terms of passenger numbers, are significant flows.

Hopefully we won't see multiple paths eaten up by occasional vanity trains which run with otherwise under-utilised stock, break up clock face operation for other services, and have passengers moving their journeys up or down by half an hour from ideal time to catch the "Green Dragon" which is 10 minutes faster. Such was possible and perhaps sensible in the days gone by when the main lines only carried about a half of the services now running, and a train journey was an adventure rather than a regular trip, or even a commute.

IIRC^▸ (if I recall/remember/read correctly) the proposal is that the additional Bristol TM^‡(resolve) via Parkway trains are not scheduled to stop at Swindon.  Please remember that Swindon has a population of 209,000 that makes it larger than the Borough of Reading (155,000), though the Reading Wokingham area has a larger population (300,000).  However, unlike Reading, there are no local stations around Swindon so all the flows from the surrounding area are concentrated here.

There is a considerable flow of passengers from Swindon both to Bristol, the South West and South Wales.

Don't forget to add in the parts of Reading that are now West Berkshire District Unitary Authority, also the South Oxford area which is part of the "greater" Reading area.  Reading has greater connectivity than Swindon, you are trying to compare tomato's with apples.

Is there the demand for such services?  Or is it a nice to have?  By demand will the train depart / enter Wales at full to 80% of its capacity, if its not then it could be argued its a nice to have therefore the Welsh Assembly could subsides it

[ellendune]

Don't forget to add in the parts of Reading that are now West Berkshire District Unitary Authority, also the South Oxford area which is part of the "greater" Reading area.  Reading has greater connectivity than Swindon, you are trying to compare tomato's with apples.

Is there the demand for such services?  Or is it a nice to have?  By demand will the train depart / enter Wales at full to 80% of its capacity, if its not then it could be argued its a nice to have therefore the Welsh Assembly could subsides it

I am happy to include them and would have done so had the figures come to hand.  I was not suggesting that Reading should have any less service, just don't write Swindon of as some provincial backwater we are a significant traffic generator in our own right and that goes both east and west.  I suggest you look at how many people join the westbound south Wales trains at Swindon.  There is a significant Welsh expatriate community here in Swindon and I know at least one Swindon Cardiff commuter. Platform 4 can get very crowded!

[didcotdean]

An obvious stop to miss out for a specifically Cardiff to London express would be Newport - odd that this wasn't suggested

[grahame]

An obvious stop to miss out for a specifically Cardiff to London express would be Newport - odd that this wasn't suggested

There may be various reasons to stop at Newport
a) Trains have to slow down to go through there, so it's cheap in minutes taken
b) There may be a good opportunity to draw in funding
c) IMBY (as opposed to "NIMBY") - in the back yard of the suggester, or (s)he connects there
d) being at one end of the long, fast run, helps to fill express seats for the long distance
e) fewer alternative trains to London that from the English stations that would be skipped
f) passengers can get Pizza delivered to the train if they don't fancy the buffet 
or
g) all of the above
h) some other reason

[Btline]

Well once there are 7 tph going through Swindon and Didcot (4 Bristol, 2 Wales and 1 Chelt), I would expect at least 3 of them not to stop at any of these!

We need to get journey times down - not just in the peaks, but all day.

Reading stops should be retained due to the connections required (except - perhaps - a couple of trains in the peaks that are full already)

[ellendune]

Well once there are 7 tph going through Swindon and Didcot (4 Bristol, 2 Wales and 1 Chelt), I would expect at least 3 of them not to stop at any of these!

We need to get journey times down - not just in the peaks, but all day.

Reading stops should be retained due to the connections required (except - perhaps - a couple of trains in the peaks that are full already)

Yes, and the proposal is that the 2 Bristol TM^‡(resolve) via Parkway trans will not stop at Swindon.  Why do you need a third?  It is not only London and Reading people who want to go to Wales you know. It is not as if we could get a local train from Swindon to Bristol Parkway to pick the train up there as, unlike reading we have not had local trains since 1965! We could catch the train to TM and a local to Parkway, but that would take longer than waiting for the next direct service from Swindon. 

All to save how many minutes on a journey from London to South Wales? Earning less money because there would be more empty seats. 

[John R]

For once I find myself in total agreement with btline.

The recent overwhelming positive comment about the few minutes shaved off the Sheffield to London timings shows that minutes are important. There is also, I understand, good evidence to show that each minute saved has a very beneficial impact in terms of revenue.

So, why should South Wales be left with services post IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) that are, in terms of timings, no better and probably worse than those at the introduction of HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train), 40 years previously?

The other long distance inter city lines have managed to successfully segregate medium distance flows whilst still retaining limited stop services for destinations further out from London. On the GW^▸ (Great Western), we've crammed more seats in, and then said we've got to stop at the intermediate stations to make sure they are filled.

Running the two additional services to Temple Meads appears to give Bristol a disproportionate share of the benefits of electrification and IEP. I would have thought a timetable could be derived that sends 3 each to Cardiff and TM^‡(resolve), enabling the Swansea starter to run fast from Newport to Reading, with a cross platform connection at Cardiff into a stopper. The additional service from TM would then run fast from Bristol Parkway, enabling both Bristol stations to have 1 fast train ph.

As for local flows, a couple of peak emu services would be more than adequate to soak up the demand of commuters from, eg, Bath and Bristol Parkway to Swindon.  

[ellendune]

The other long distance inter city lines have managed to successfully segregate medium distance flows whilst still retaining limited stop services for destinations further out from London. On the GW^▸ (Great Western), we've crammed more seats in, and then said we've got to stop at the intermediate stations to make sure they are filled.

Segregation means providing alternative services for the local flows. We haven't had any local services between Didcot and Bath since 1965.  That is why we are served by the HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s.  A local service from Bristol to Swindon to Didcot (e.g. restoration of the short lived Oxford service would be very welcome) and this would allow removal of more of the Didcot stops. However these were removed because there were not enough paths for a robust service. With 2 extra expresses per hour surely this will be even more difficult?
 

Running the two additional services to Temple Meads appears to give Bristol a disproportionate share of the benefits of electrification and IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.). I would have thought a timetable could be derived that sends 3 each to Cardiff and TM^‡(resolve), enabling the Swansea starter to run fast from Newport to Reading, with a cross platform connection at Cardiff into a stopper. The additional service from TM would then run fast from Bristol Parkway, enabling both Bristol stations to have 1 fast train ph.

Seems fine to me.

As for local flows, a couple of peak emu services would be more than adequate to soak up the demand of commuters from, eg, Bath and Bristol Parkway to Swindon. 

Yes but we don't have any local services and post IEP I cannot see any available paths.  And there is currently no spare rolling stock.

[John R]

Ellendune  - I'm going to struggle with quoting from your response, so, to pick up your first and third points:-

There is going to be a lot of emu stock around come 2016/7. So I don't think that will be a problem. Also, at the very least it will be old (Class 319) 100mph stock, and the new stuff at least 110 or 115 mph, so the reduced speed difference to 125mph will make timetabling between Swindon and Didcot much easier. Also, with the closure of Didcot Power station, there is much less slow freight on the line to plan around.

As an example, a 90mph dmu takes 40 secs to travel a mile, so loses around 11.5 secs to a 125mph service. At 100mph, that differential becomes only 7.5 secs, and around 4.5 secs at 110mph.

I'm still not convinced the axing of the Bristol Oxford service was to do with reliability. It smelled too much of an SRA^» (Strategic Rail Authority - about) inspired economy measure. And I'm completely supportive of a reintroduction of emu's to provide capacity for local flows between Bristol and Didcot. They could even carry on to Milton Keynes and provide a really useful service.

 

[Btline]

That 3 trains to each of Bristol and Cardiff is an excellent idea. I think Bristol is too small a city to warrant a 4tph InterCIty service.

I personally would keep the no of stops on each train constant so there can be an every 20 minute service taking the same time (a la Virgin on Birmingham services). So one would call at Didcot, Swindon, one at Swindon Chippenham, one at Didot, Chippenham (all at Reading and Bath).

All the other InterCity companies are looking to shorten times. The fact that a 4 hr Edinburgh service to London exists boosts passenger numbers as people are impressed and drawn to the railway. Ditto for Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield in 2hrs, Birmingham in 1 hr 12 min.

Just imagine if FGW^▸ (First Great Western) could advertise 1 hr to Bristol or 1 hr 30 minutes to Cardiff. (not sure how realistic these are, but you get the picture)

After Crossrail, hopefully all stopping trains between Reading and London can be removed from the fast lines, leaving 16 express paths for IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) first stop Reading.

[ellendune]

I personally would keep the no of stops on each train constant so there can be an every 20 minute service taking the same time (a la Virgin on Birmingham services). So one would call at Didcot, Swindon, one at Swindon Chippenham, one at Didot, Chippenham (all at Reading and Bath).

That would require a new local service, which we have not got (and there are no paths available that I can see) so the expresses would still have to provide the Didcot, Swindon, Chippenham service at the moment. Your alternate stopping pattern allows long distance journeys from these places but it would be impossible to travel from Swindon to Didcot or Swindon to Chippenham.

Swindon - Chippenham would only be possible via the still not frequent trans wilts service. Current commuter flows would need something much larger than the 153 on the trans wilts and the reduced frequency would loose much of the traffic.

Swindon - Didcot is also important for Swindon to Oxford journeys and this gives access to journey opportunities to the north via cross country (which do not stop at Didcot) so this is not just local commuting (which is significant). 

It looks really good in theory, but it would destroy any local rail travel from Swindon.

Also if you miss out these stops you would find a lot of spare seats west of Reading. I am not sure that the increased in travel brought from reduced journey time would make the additional 2 trains per hour viable.