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Author Topic: Thames Valley signalling problems - big delays - July 2014  (Read 87477 times)
a-driver
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« Reply #150 on: July 27, 2014, 17:25:09 »

That what we have is completely unacceptable and to identify a solution that a persuasive business case can be built for.

Maybe we need to get the guys in who build/manage the network in Germany where I am pretty sure these issues don't occur, standards of living are higher and prices lower.

Well done, you've just avoided the whole question!
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« Reply #151 on: July 27, 2014, 17:28:22 »

Thanks for all the "experts" for coming along and telling why it couldn't be done as I predicted!

Well done, can I have next weeks lottery numbers please?  No-one on here is claiming to be an "expert".

Just remember Mark Hopwood or Head of NR» (Network Rail - home page) are not posting on here (I doubt anyway  Tongue).. It is industry staff who take some of their free time to answer questions and offer debate, not to sit here and take your pot-shots.  We can make suggestions, but whether those at the top level want to listen is another matter.

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Sometimes it just needs fresh eyes to come at a problem from a different perspective.  The same people looking to fix the issues they have unsuccessfully been trying to resolve for years will rarely deliver the radical solution that is required.


How many fresh eyes have the DfT» (Department for Transport - about) had in the past few years?
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« Reply #152 on: July 27, 2014, 17:39:57 »

There goes that mind-set again. That's the one that I am saying need changing before we will see the radical change that we need....

I refer you to my previous point...

Unless of course we can innovate so that there is less kit out there to get struck by lightning. Perhaps once we get to in cab signalling it will be possible to reduce the risk.  Do axle counters (as opposed to track circuits) reduce vulnerability? 

If we try and engineer out every single point of failure using current technology it will indeed cost billions, but we are on the verge of a whole new technology through in-cab signalling.

The lightning strike on the train was unlucky and something I've never heard of before.  Things like that are rare, there is no point throwing money at something to prevent one days outage in a year or two.  

This is also a good point.  There is only so much that can be justified by a rare failure.

We may not be able to eliminate all single points of failure, but we might be able to reduce the number of such points and the likelihood of those failures.

And surges when lightning strikes the overhead wires? (which conduct electricity so well that strikes are likely to be common)

That does put another layer of lightning vulnerable kit out there.  But is it better able to cope with lightning than signalling systems? And would it indeed provide some protection to the signalling?

As for a contingency planning.  I can't see how you can viably have a contingency plan for having no signalling through a area whilst maintaining a safe system of working.  

Good contingency planning can always help it is bad contingency planning that is a problem. I am sure there are some in place. The emergency timetables I am sure are not thought up from scratch each time! They can help by knowing where spare parts are in a hurry, they could identify the most vulnerable parts of the system to allow some targeted improvements. They could definitely better work out how to keep passengers informed.  

Maybe we need to get the guys in who build/manage the network in Germany where I am pretty sure these issues don't occur, standards of living are higher and prices lower.

My experience is that DB» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about)'s reputation for good service is not borne out by the facts on the ground. sure they do some things better. But other things they do worse.

The main issue here about standards of living compared to other countries is the cost of housing (whether rent or purchase).  Until UK (United Kingdom) plc sort that problem our cost of living and therefore living wages will always be unacceptably high and our costs similarly inflated. Bring housing costs into line with Germany and we would all be better off!

That said I have no easy solution to this.
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« Reply #153 on: July 27, 2014, 17:52:04 »

FGW (First Great Western) keep spending lots of money on customer service courses, but if you just dont have the staff on a Friday afternoon you cannot implement the plans.

The major problem with PAD» (Paddington (London) - next trains) is notwork fail control the boards and the PA (Public Address) systems, badly. As its NR» (Network Rail - home page) they don't care about the customer as the customer is not theirs directly.
It has happened in the past where the boards get wiped and only confirmed services are shown and then when full they get taken off the screens again.
The ribena brigade will often run away at the first hint of any trouble and hide upstairs, as will senior management. There used to be CAT teams (Customer Action Teams) of local office workers although I have no idea if this was implemented Friday evening.

You wont get the MD publicly criticising Notwork Fail as there is an agreement that no one will throw dirty laundry at each other in public.

A lot of staff are seriously not happy over Friday and if you have staff morale getting even lower, then its going to show in relations with customers. Even internal communications were s***.
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« Reply #154 on: July 27, 2014, 18:17:25 »

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FGW (First Great Western) keep spending lots of money on customer service courses, but if you just dont have the staff on a Friday afternoon you cannot implement the plans.

The major problem with PAD» (Paddington (London) - next trains) is notwork fail control the boards and the PA (Public Address) systems, badly. As its NR» (Network Rail - home page) they don't care about the customer as the customer is not theirs directly.
It has happened in the past where the boards get wiped and only confirmed services are shown and then when full they get taken off the screens again.
The ribena brigade will often run away at the first hint of any trouble and hide upstairs, as will senior management. There used to be CAT teams (Customer Action Teams) of local office workers although I have no idea if this was implemented Friday evening.

You wont get the MD publicly criticising Notwork Fail as there is an agreement that no one will throw dirty laundry at each other in public.

A lot of staff are seriously not happy over Friday and if you have staff morale getting even lower, then its going to show in relations with customers. Even internal communications were s***.


We did have a lot of suits in the messroom at Padd on Friday evening, people I've never seen before, I think they become more of a hindrance than a help though.

Internal communications with the two other TOCs (Train Operating Company) I've worked at before have all been equally as bad in fairness.  I don't think that's going to change unless you significantly increase the number of staff working within control.  I think there is a fine line between not enough and too many staff within control

Provision of information at Paddington will only get worse.  You add CrossRail staff and that's another control centre full of staff that need liaising with.  All stations should be managed by the train operating company, surely this would streamline the provision of information?
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« Reply #155 on: July 27, 2014, 18:20:00 »

A lot of the signalling failures have been down to issues with contractors.  We've had contractors offloading pallets of materials and placed them directly onto signalling cables, crushing signalling cables.  We've had signalling relay boxes left open on the lineside, we've even had rats chew through cables, causing a short and the rat goes up in smoke!
A lot of the signal failures aren't down to poor equipment or maintenance procedures.  Its carelessness. 

Quote
Good contingency planning can always help it is bad contingency planning that is a problem. I am sure there are some in place. The emergency timetables I am sure are not thought up from scratch each time! They can help by knowing where spare parts are in a hurry, they could identify the most vulnerable parts of the system to allow some targeted improvements. They could definitely better work out how to keep passengers informed.  

Believe it or not emergency timetables are pretty much thought up from scratch each time.  Things like Paddington to Bedwyn starting and terminating at Reading are basic amendments.  You have your priority services, these would be your trains to Bristol, Wales and to the South West.  Any other locations can't be reached by using operators, Chiltern, SWT (South West Trains) or London Transport.
You can't not plan for every single type of failure that occurs. The plan differs based on the number of trains, crews that you have available.  The location of the failure, the type of failure, the time of the day, the likely length of time to fix etc  These are all unique factors. 

Maybe we need to get the guys in who build/manage the network in Germany where I am pretty sure these issues don't occur, standards of living are higher and prices lower.

Quote
My experience is that DB» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about)'s reputation for good service is not borne out by the facts on the ground. sure they do some things better. But other things they do worse.

The main issue here about standards of living compared to other countries is the cost of housing (whether rent or purchase).  Until UK (United Kingdom) plc sort that problem our cost of living and therefore living wages will always be unacceptably high and our costs similarly inflated. Bring housing costs into line with Germany and we would all be better off!

That said I have no easy solution to this.

Most peoples perception of European railroads I find are generally based on the European high speed networks, ie TGV (Train a Grande Vitesse), ICE, Bullet and AVE.  Once you get off these it isn't glamorous at all.  But those high speed networks have been will financed and built.  Right now, proper industry experts have voiced concerns over the new IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.) trains saying that Hitachi are struggling to make good out of a bad spec given to them by the DfT» (Department for Transport - about).  It appears yet again passenger groups and train operating companies have not been listened to.  There's a whole history of the industry trying to do things on the cheap and it always comes back to bite someone on the butt!  The government does not learn.
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« Reply #156 on: July 27, 2014, 18:27:21 »

Most peoples perception of European railroads I find are generally based on the European high speed networks, ie TGV (Train a Grande Vitesse), ICE, Bullet and AVE.  Once you get off these it isn't glamorous at all.  But those high speed networks have been will financed and built.  Right now, proper industry experts have voiced concerns over the new IEP (Intercity Express Program / Project.) trains saying that Hitachi are struggling to make good out of a bad spec given to them by the DfT» (Department for Transport - about).  It appears yet again passenger groups and train operating companies have not been listened to.  There's a whole history of the industry trying to do things on the cheap and it always comes back to bite someone on the butt!  The government does not learn.

I've done some travelling around France, and the TGV was fantastic (although even that crashed the other week!).. The local trains though were appalling.  Late, every single window covered in graffiti, the stations smelled disgusting too.  Our London Underground stations were palaces compared to the horrible, dark, dingy and fragrant Paris metro and RER stations.  The promised land of railways does not suddenly begin just because you reach Calais.
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« Reply #157 on: July 27, 2014, 18:32:57 »

I feel that part of the problem is that allegedly rare weather events are occurring a lot more frequently, remember the floods of the winter before last ? "once a century event"  "not worth spending billions on something that may not happen again in our lifetime" etc. Within about 12 months, similar but worse conditions prevailed.

And the lightning strike of a couple of weeks ago was no doubt a very rare event until it happened again within about two weeks!

There is no simple "cure all" but I do feel that more could be done to improve reliability and redundancy at relatively low cost as part of other projects.
More rolling stock would help, not only in reducing overcrowding, but also in recovering from disruption and reducing cancellations caused by rolling stock being out of place.
Just 4 extra trains, one each at or near London, Exeter, Plymouth, and Penzance would help a lot by allowing a few more services to run even if stock is displaced, remembering that train crew can be sent by taxi if needs be, unlike trains.
Considering the recent gross overcrowding on the limited trains available from Paddington, a spare HST (High Speed Train) or two would have helped a lot. (not by running an extra service as paths were limited by the signal failure, but by combining 2 short DMUs (Diesel Multiple Unit) into one full length train, and use of the HST instead of one of the DMUs)
Buying extra rolling stock to keep as spares is most unlikely to be economic, but retaining some old stock SHOULD be affordable.
As an example, when the IEPs (Intercity Express Program / Project.) arrive, many HSTs will become redundant with a limited number being retained for Cornish services. It would seem sensible to retain perhaps 10 extra HSTs beyond the number needed, as cover for out of course events. The cost of leasing or purchasing something that would otherwise be scrapped SHOULD be minimal.
Maintenance costs should be minimal if the spare sets were rotated onto the Cornish services, 20 sets each running half the mileage should not cost much more to maintain than 10 sets used more intensively.

Not likely to happen though is it ! the IEPs will no doubt be provided in just barely sufficient numbers to run the timetable under perfect conditions. Each suicide, lightning strike, bridge bash, rain storm, cable theft, or snowfall will continue to cause widespread disruption due to trains being in the wrong place.

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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
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« Reply #158 on: July 27, 2014, 18:36:36 »

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As an example, when the IEPs (Intercity Express Program / Project.) arrive, many HSTs (High Speed Train) will become redundant with a limited number being retained for Cornish services. It would seem sensible to retain perhaps 10 extra HSTs beyond the number needed, as cover for out of course events. The cost of leasing or purchasing something that would otherwise be scrapped SHOULD be minimal.
Maintenance costs should be minimal if the spare sets were rotated onto the Cornish services, 20 sets each running half the mileage should not cost much more to maintain than 10 sets used more intensively.

Not likely to happen though is it ! the IEPs will no doubt be provided in just barely sufficient numbers to run the timetable under perfect conditions. Each suicide, lightning strike, bridge bash, rain storm, cable theft, or snowfall will continue to cause widespread disruption due to trains being in the wrong place.



During rush hour on a good evening, you'll be lucky if there is one spare HST at London.  Same for the Turbo's.  If you have the spare rolling stock you could employ and have more spare drivers to drive these spare trains in the event of disruption or late running.

Glastonbury is a prime example of what you're saying.  To provide enough capacity, you have to cancel was it the Swansea's or Cardiffs.  Ridiculous situation for a transport company to be put in
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« Reply #159 on: July 27, 2014, 19:24:19 »

I had a look for what NR» (Network Rail - home page) have to say about resilience. The answer is - depressingly little of substance.

There a rather vacuous mission statement called "Delivering a better railway for a better Britain: our plans for 2014-2019", which is a summary for the public of the CP5 (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) plans. It talks about reliability, but mostly in the context of wear-and-tear failures and how to do maintenance better. It talks about availability, but that's to do with reducing the impact of engineering possessions  - "7-day railway" in the jargon.

Then there is a bit about resilience, but that's all about climate change:

Quote
A railway fit for the future

It^s the same the world over ^ adverse weather impacts the smooth running of railways. We^re no different in Britain. Ice, snow, heavy rainfall, floods, lightning, high winds, even heatwaves, can all damage the railway and disrupt journeys.


The storms, gales and floods across much of Britain during the winter of 2013/14 demonstrated once again not only how our weather patterns are changing, but also the impact that has on the railway. Whether it has been the dramatic demolition of the seawall at Dawlish, coastal damage and landslips in Wales, rising groundwater in the Thames Valley, or falling trees in Scotland, there has hardly been a part of the network that has not been affected. And it isn^t just the physical infrastructure that is affected. It is also people^s daily lives as the railway service they depend on to get them to and from work has been severely disrupted. It has been a sobering experience for all concerned.

And that impact will continue. When the Victorians built the embankments on which many of our tracks were built, they did not envisage the kind of weather we are now experiencing, and, therefore, we need to better understand the impact not just of the recent battering, but the increased frequency of extreme weather events over the past few years. We will complete a series of resilience studies by September 2014, and have put in place a review process with our regulator and government to allow us to deal with the extra costs involved in carrying out the additional work that may be needed as a result.

I think that misses the point. So far any change in the climate is only a small shift in the relative probabilities of different levels of weather (when turned into numbers). No weather that has happened in the last 30 years is inconsistent with the pattern of weather over the previous 100 years (or more, though we lack good data going further back). The warming itself is only  just on the verge of being identifiable from measurements, which is why predictions have to be based on modelling.

That section also suggests looking at the problem - starting now! Since the main problem is that the railways can't cope with the weather we already have, I would hope that resilience was a long-standing area of work. That would involve providing some resilience in the service using the existing infrastructure (mainly by managerial action), and improving that infrastructure both by small changes and major renewals. So there does seem to be a lack of concern and concerted action.

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« Reply #160 on: July 27, 2014, 19:48:52 »

I would contest your statement:

So far any change in the climate is only a small shift in the relative probabilities of different levels of weather (when turned into numbers).

As I do not think it is yet possible to calculate the relative probabilities to any statistically significant level.

No weather that has happened in the last 30 years is inconsistent with the pattern of weather over the previous 100 years (or more, though we lack good data going further back). The warming itself is only just on the verge of being identifiable from measurements, which is why predictions have to be based on modelling.

This is true but I think you miss the point.  Our weather is so variable that we have to base our view of climate on the occurrence over many years. 30 years is indeed the usual period taken, but others argue that due to various effects a longer period should be used.

So we have had a larger number of warmer summers, a larger number of more intense storms, in recent years. We and other parts of the world are getting more extreme weather but the question is whether this record is long enough to demonstrate a pattern that is a change in climate.

By the time we can demonstrate any change in climate it could already be well past the time we should have done something about it (either to stop it happening or to make out lives more resilient to it).

So although I think the NR» (Network Rail - home page) statement you quote goes too far in saying the pattern has definitely changed, we cannot say it what we have been experiencing is in the last 10 years is normal by the experience of the past. So they would be right to say something less definite, but we cannot ignore our recent experience and say it is just down to our poor collective memory because there is something real, but we cannot prove it is not just a passing phase. However the models continue to suggest it is likely to be real. 

As a personal observation, without any facts to back it up - we seem to have had more lightening over the last two or three years than I remember in the past. I am not sure how far back good lighting records go so I have no idea whether this can be demonstrated as a change in climate. It is however consistent with climate change predictions.
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« Reply #161 on: July 27, 2014, 20:46:33 »

I would contest your statement:

So far any change in the climate is only a small shift in the relative probabilities of different levels of weather (when turned into numbers).

As I do not think it is yet possible to calculate the relative probabilities to any statistically significant level.

That's what I said, isn't it? Any change is too small to be demonstrated with reasonable confidence.

Quote
No weather that has happened in the last 30 years is inconsistent with the pattern of weather over the previous 100 years (or more, though we lack good data going further back). The warming itself is only just on the verge of being identifiable from measurements, which is why predictions have to be based on modelling.

This is true but I think you miss the point.  Our weather is so variable that we have to base our view of climate on the occurrence over many years. 30 years is indeed the usual period taken, but others argue that due to various effects a longer period should be used.

So we have had a larger number of warmer summers, a larger number of more intense storms, in recent years. We and other parts of the world are getting more extreme weather but the question is whether this record is long enough to demonstrate a pattern that is a change in climate.

By the time we can demonstrate any change in climate it could already be well past the time we should have done something about it (either to stop it happening or to make out lives more resilient to it).

Again, I think that last point is the case. The record is not long enough. So to say we have had enough warm summers, or big storms, tp be more than just chance or normal fluctuations is unwarranted.

Quote
So although I think the NR» (Network Rail - home page) statement you quote goes too far in saying the pattern has definitely changed, we cannot say it what we have been experiencing is in the last 10 years is normal by the experience of the past. So they would be right to say something less definite, but we cannot ignore our recent experience and say it is just down to our poor collective memory because there is something real, but we cannot prove it is not just a passing phase. However the models continue to suggest it is likely to be real. 

Sure, the best evidence is that there will be such effects. Hardly a surprise, if the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere doubles. My point is that, before worrying about what that might do after 30 years from now, we should look realistically at the next 30 years assuming no change. "Normal"? Consider this winter's rainfall, and say it has a 1% chance of happening in any one year. In 100 years (roughly your own lifetime of your children's) there is a 63% chance of that much rain or more. In 30 years, there is a 26% chance. So I reckon that is normal, and should be planned for. "Climate change" (as usually understood) might move that number up or down a little, but I don't think it would alter the conclusions for infrastructure planners.

Quote
As a personal observation, without any facts to back it up - we seem to have had more lightening over the last two or three years than I remember in the past. I am not sure how far back good lighting records go so I have no idea whether this can be demonstrated as a change in climate. It is however consistent with climate change predictions.

If you look at the record, it's clear we do have a poor memory (collectively, at least) of these things. When watching interviews during the Thames floods, with a book of Berkshire weather history, more than once I heard someone say it had never happened in their lifetime and I knew they were wrong.

Flooding is an area where there are certainly events in history that we cannot cope with now. And where once in a lifetime is more than enough to suffer, thank you very much.  After the 1947 flood, the flow capacity of the Thames was significantly increased. That involved dredging, but I wonder how the current depth of the river compares with what it was then, and whether that flow rate would submerge Lower Caversham again. Certainly a repeat of 1894's water flow rates would.

And on lightning - I remember coming back from Ipswich to London in around 1960, during a massive lightning storm - flashes coming of the OHLE and even the rails, and later on the local paper reported 3000 lighting flashes over Harrow. More spectacular than anything since, I think, though I've never found a record of it (or its exact year).
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« Reply #162 on: July 27, 2014, 21:02:05 »

Sometimes it just needs fresh eyes to come at a problem from a different perspective.  The same people looking to fix the issues they have unsuccessfully been trying to resolve for years will rarely deliver the radical solution that is required.
How many fresh eyes have the DfT» (Department for Transport - about) had in the past few years?

In my view, they have probably had too many sets of fresh eyes at minister / junior minister level. Alistair Darling, Douglas Alexander, Geoff Hoon, Ruth Kelly, Andrew Adonis, Phillip Hammond, Justine Greening and Patrick McLouchlin - that's 8 in the 9 years I've been taking an interest, and I'm not sure that a year is long enough to deliver anything at this level.   Junior ministers ... again a lot of names. Derek Twigg, Tom Harris ... and some at both senior and junior level actually rather good, but then moved to other things just as they learned in.  I keep my fingers crossed that one or two of the current ones last longer than average, and I've got to the stage I would probably wish for that even if I thought they were only mediocre.
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« Reply #163 on: July 27, 2014, 23:21:57 »

For those who like pretty pictures with a high scientific content, the Met Office now has quite a lot of stuff about last winter, including report called The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK (United Kingdom). This says quite clearly that none of the storms, nor general amount of rain, was exceptional; it was the persistence of the weather type wot did it. And when addressing the question of whether this is an aspect of climate change, the answer is that "there is now some emerging evidence".

What is true irrespective of that "climate change" label is that warm air holds more moisture, and there has been a short-term warming locally (1^C in the last 30 years). That increase in humidity is quite rapid - 6-7% per ^C.  That provides more rain, but also more latent heat of evaporation of water, which powers the steam engine that drives storms. So we expect a bit more rain and storminess, but that comes on top of something very variable.
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« Reply #164 on: July 28, 2014, 07:58:40 »

FGW (First Great Western) keep spending lots of money on customer service courses, but if you just dont have the staff on a Friday afternoon you cannot implement the plans.

The major problem with PAD» (Paddington (London) - next trains) is notwork fail control the boards and the PA (Public Address) systems, badly. As its NR» (Network Rail - home page) they don't care about the customer as the customer is not theirs directly.
It has happened in the past where the boards get wiped and only confirmed services are shown and then when full they get taken off the screens again.
The ribena brigade will often run away at the first hint of any trouble and hide upstairs, as will senior management. There used to be CAT teams (Customer Action Teams) of local office workers although I have no idea if this was implemented Friday evening.

You wont get the MD publicly criticising Notwork Fail as there is an agreement that no one will throw dirty laundry at each other in public.

A lot of staff are seriously not happy over Friday and if you have staff morale getting even lower, then its going to show in relations with customers. Even internal communications were s***.

As I suggested before (on another thread I think), if Directors/management pay and bonuses were linked to Customer Satisfaction ratings you would be amazed how quickly additional resources would become available and things would change for the better - believe me I have seen it in other large organisations - it concentrates the mind somewhat if there's a chance of senior individuals being hit in the pocket!

The way that customers were abandoned on Friday (and not just at Paddington) was nothing short of disgraceful.....I will be writing to Hopwood today and asking him i) How many Customer Service staff are employed at Paddington/Reading (and elsewhere) ii) How many of these were on duty on Friday throughout the chaos that was caused by the lightning strike and where were the Ribena brigade? iii) what is the contingency plan to ensure that customers are looked after/enabled to get home in these circumstances iv) what have you learned and what will be done differently in future - I will report back when/if I get a response (when he's finished "signalling" at NR)

I see it's Newbury's turn this morning, all lines blocked, chaos.........I am beginning to wonder if we're reaching meltdown?
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