Franchise Announcement

[whole diary]

[ChrisB]

Pershore is losing two stops...all the others remain, so the seat count increases at all main stations, including Moreton

[Rhydgaled]

The bi-modes (apart from that Hereford 10car) are only scheduled to trip as far, I believe, as Shurb Hill in Worcester - hence the drop in seats to Foregate Street, Malvern & Hereford - but those stations don't need the capacity currently - have you seen the empty HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) going to Hereford from Worcester?

No, there are bi-modes planned to Hereford all day, not just the 10-car working. The draft (and, I am told, impossible) timetable those figures are based on shows an hourly service between Worcester Foregate Street and London Paddington, with roughly one train every two hours extending to Hereford.

I think we may have mentioned this before, but are the numbers of seats here counted as "number of seats departing to London"?   If so, and the train calls at multiple stations, you're double or treble counting.

Lets take a hypothetical example

3 trains run from A calling at B and C to London, each with 500 seats. So that's 1500 seats from A, 1500 seats from B and 1500 seats from C.

3 new trains with 600 seats take over.   The first train calls at A and B, the second at A and C, and the third starts from B and calls at C.  So that' 1200 seats from each of them - "20% fewer seats".  Except .. total capacity from A B and C has risen by 20%!

Not sure I entirely understand, but in the case of Swansea (SWA^» (Swansea - next trains)) and Cardiff Central (CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains)) the train frequency is the same (hourly PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains)-SWA plus hourly PAD-CDF workings to make a half-hourly service) and all SWA trains will continue to call at CDF, so I don't think your comment applies. Similarly, I don't think it applies to PAD-Worcester.

[chrisr_75]

I thought a number of the South Wales services were planned to run non-stop RDG^‡(resolve)-NWP?

[didcotdean]

The 'Proposed Weekday Class 800/801 Service Pattern' has the off peak trains to Cardiff and Swansea being as they are now, ie one each hour, both stopping at Swindon. The Cardiffs continue to stop at Didcot but miss out Reading. The Swanseas miss out Didcot.

The additional peak service to Cardiff runs non-stop from London to Bristol Parkway, then onto Cardiff (off peak this train runs from Bristol Parkway to Temple Meads).

Swindon in this plan has five trains an hour off peak to London, starting points Bristol TM^‡(resolve) (*2), Cardiff, Cheltenham & Swansea. Peak adds in the EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) shuttle stopping at Reading and Didcot.

[Rhydgaled]

I thought a number of the South Wales services were planned to run non-stop RDG^‡(resolve)-NWP?

Yes, but that has no effect on the number of seats through south Wales between Newport and Swansea.

[didcotdean]

Yes oddly the plan diagram does show any intermediate stations between Bristol and Cardiff, nor Cardiff and Swansea, but this can't be the planned stopping pattern (or lack of one).

[grahame]

I thought a number of the South Wales services were planned to run non-stop RDG^‡(resolve)-NWP?

Yes, but that has no effect on the number of seats through south Wales between Newport and Swansea.

Those seats are, however, no longer all available at Swindon too and re-counted as a part of the Swindon total.

Now: Two trains an hour Cardiff to London - each with 500 seats, both calling at Swindon where there's a call for 400 seats.   Effective seats from Cardiff - 600.

Future: Two trains an hour from Cardiff to London - each with 450, one calling at Swindon where there's a call for 200 of those seats (the other 200 seats being catered for by twice the number of services from Bristol to London, and twice the number of services from Cheltenham to London.   Effective seats from Cardiff - 700.

1000 seats reduced to 900.   But effective seats having removed double counting increased from 600 to 700.

Numbers are purely illustrative ... I'm sure someone can give me the right numbers.  It makes sense in that it increases the seat occupancy at the outer end of the train's runs away from London, and thus balances supply better to demand. And that should help to keep costs / prices down with seat provision, members suggest, being very expensive.

[Rhydgaled]

Yes oddly the plan diagram does show any intermediate stations between Bristol and Cardiff, nor Cardiff and Swansea, but this can't be the planned stopping pattern (or lack of one).

You seem to have different planned diagrams. The DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) diagrams spreadsheet I have shows the Neath, Port Talbot Pwy and Bridgend stops.

I thought a number of the South Wales services were planned to run non-stop RDG^‡(resolve)-NWP?

Yes, but that has no effect on the number of seats through south Wales between Newport and Swansea.

Those seats are, however, no longer all available at Swindon too and re-counted as a part of the Swindon total.

Now: Two trains an hour Cardiff to London - each with 500 seats, both calling at Swindon where there's a call for 400 seats.   Effective seats from Cardiff - 600.

Future: Two trains an hour from Cardiff to London - each with 450, one calling at Swindon where there's a call for 200 of those seats (the other 200 seats being catered for by twice the number of services from Bristol to London, and twice the number of services from Cheltenham to London.   Effective seats from Cardiff - 700.

1000 seats reduced to 900.   But effective seats having removed double counting increased from 600 to 700.

Numbers are purely illustrative ... I'm sure someone can give me the right numbers.  It makes sense in that it increases the seat occupancy at the outer end of the train's runs away from London, and thus balances supply better to demand. And that should help to keep costs / prices down with seat provision, members suggest, being very expensive.

So, more seats from Cardiff if travelling from there to London, but less seats for travel within Wales. I take it your 'each with 450' (seats) is an average, or just an illustrative number. The 5-car 800/801 units are apparently going to have 315 seats, the 9-car ones 627 seats.

[broadgage]

When full length loco hauled trains and HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) on cross country routes were about to be replaced by new shorter DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit). I recall some similar complex arguments regarding numbers of seats, service frequencies, stopping patterns, and how many passengers would use which services.
The proponents of the new shorter DMUs stated that in most cases that they would be adequate, and that they could run in multiple to give a "double length train"
Cynics like me stated that the trains were too short and that many services would be overcrowded. The shorter trains duly arrived, and in a great many cases were overcrowded from day one, are still overcrowded some years later, hardly ever run in multiple to give a full length train, and are now widely accepted to be unsuitable for longer journeys.

I feel a repeat coming on !

[grahame]

So, more seats from Cardiff if travelling from there to London, but less seats for travel within Wales. I take it your 'each with 450' (seats) is an average, or just an illustrative number.

Indeed - just illustrative of how the numbers can work.  It's often struck me as not very efficient use of seats on certain services that they're packed at one end of the route and rather thin at the other.  

In extreme cases, there can be trains which are so overcrowded that not everyone who wants to travel can get on board at the start of the journey ... with space taken up by short distance passengers who could have waited no more than 20 minutes for the next train denying travel to longer distance / less frequent station passengers who have to wait an hour or more. (I saw that the other day ... not a South Wales example, but something we are very conscious of on the TransWilts)

[chrisr_75]

I thought a number of the South Wales services were planned to run non-stop RDG^‡(resolve)-NWP?

Yes, but that has no effect on the number of seats through south Wales between Newport and Swansea.

FGW^▸ (First Great Western) are only responsible for a maximum of 2 tph on the S.Wales mainline, ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) I think is around 4 or 5 tph if my memory serves me right about the service pattern. In my logic, it would be much more beneficial to increase train length of the ATW services by 1 or 2 coaches which would then spread available seats more evenly through each hour and would address the issue of a reduction in FGW seats in South Wales. I guess this will likely be seen as electrification makes progress in South Wales (will hopefully also improve the timings of the stopping services), as it would be crazy to buy a bunch of 2 car EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit)'s to replace the current DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) fleet. Are there any specifications for South Wales EMU's as yet? I assume they're likely to be 4 car units?

[Rhydgaled]

It's often struck me as not very efficient use of seats on certain services that they're packed at one end of the route and rather thin at the other.

Indeed, but that is generally unavoidable on services which require speeds above 110mph without making compromises which I feel are unacceptable. However, which end is packed can vary throughout the day. Using PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains)-SWA^» (Swansea - next trains) as an example, a westbound train arriving in Swansea at around 8am might be fairly lighted out of PAD but heaving into SWA, whereas an eastbound service into PAD at 8am will be packed into PAD and quieter at the Swansea end. This means both ends of the service need full-length trains at exactly the same time of day.

I thought a number of the South Wales services were planned to run non-stop RDG^‡(resolve)-NWP?

Yes, but that has no effect on the number of seats through south Wales between Newport and Swansea.

FGW^▸ (First Great Western) are only responsible for a maximum of 2 tph on the S.Wales mainline, ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) I think is around 4 or 5 tph if my memory serves me right about the service pattern. In my logic, it would be much more beneficial to increase train length of the ATW services by 1 or 2 coaches which would then spread available seats more evenly through each hour and would address the issue of a reduction in FGW seats in South Wales. I guess this will likely be seen as electrification makes progress in South Wales (will hopefully also improve the timings of the stopping services), as it would be crazy to buy a bunch of 2 car EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit)'s to replace the current DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) fleet. Are there any specifications for South Wales EMU's as yet? I assume they're likely to be 4 car units?

Platforms on the ValleyLines are, I think, a mix of 4x20m and 6x20m, so the logical solution for them would seem to be a mix of 3-car and 4-car EMUs with 20m vehicles.

I don't know where you get 4-5tph from, Cardiff-Swansea has a base service of 2tph (1tph FirstGW from PAD, 1tph ATW Manchester-Carmarthen/Milford Haven) plus a stopper every two hours. There's also an hourly stopper between Cardiff and Bridgend only, continuing to Maesteg, and there are plans to double that. I'd really like to see a Carmarthen-Cardiff express DMU, avoiding the huge time penalty of going via Swansea, after electrification, but those Maesteg stoppers and the freight traffic mean it will be very hard to path.

[chrisr_75]

I don't know where you get 4-5tph from, Cardiff-Swansea has a base service of 2tph (1tph FirstGW from PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains), 1tph ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) Manchester-Carmarthen/Milford Haven) plus a stopper every two hours. There's also an hourly stopper between Cardiff and Bridgend only, continuing to Maesteg, and there are plans to double that. I'd really like to see a Carmarthen-Cardiff express DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit), avoiding the huge time penalty of going via Swansea, after electrification, but those Maesteg stoppers and the freight traffic mean it will be very hard to path.

On inspecting the timetable it appears I have counted the FGW^▸ (First Great Western) services in with that number of tph, sorry!

I still think that increasing capacity on the ATW services would represent a substantial improvement on the SWA^» (Swansea - next trains)-CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains) section, even with a slight reduction on seats to and from London.

Fully support your point that far west wales services could do with beefing up!

[MartinH]

Yes oddly the plan diagram does show any intermediate stations between Bristol and Cardiff, nor Cardiff and Swansea, but this can't be the planned stopping pattern (or lack of one).

You seem to have different planned diagrams. The DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) diagrams spreadsheet I have shows the Neath, Port Talbot Pwy and Bridgend stops.

Didcotdean is referring to the 'Proposed Weekday Class 800/801 Service Pattern' as show in the Government Response to 2014 Great Western franchise consultation (on page 38) which shows the service pattern that FGW^▸ (First Great Western) intends to run after the complete introduction of the IEP fleet in December 2018.

As didcotdean says, there are a number of intermediate stations, including Chippenham and Bath Spa towards Bristol, and Newport, Neath, Port Talbot Parkway and Bridgend towards Cardiff and Swansea, which do not appear on this diagram.

There are a few differences between this calling pattern and the one the DfT had been proposing in the peak and off peak. For those which have not seen this the core service pattern is as follows:

Off peak pattern
1tph to Bristol Temple Meads calling at Reading, Swindon, Chippenham and Bath Spa with certain hour extensions to Weston Super Mare and Exeter St Davids.
1tph to Bristol Temple Meads calling at Reading, Didcot Parkway, Swindon, Chippenham and Bath Spa.
2tph to Bristol Temple Meads only calling at Bristol Parkway.
1tph to Cardiff Central calling at Didcot Parkway, Swindon, Bristol Parkway and Newport.
1tph to Swansea calling at Reading, Swindon, Bristol Parkway, Newport, Cardiff Central, Neath, Port Talbot Parkway and Bridgend with certain hour extensions to Camarthen.
1tph to Cheltenham Spa calling at Reading, Didcot Parkway, Swindon, Kemble, Stroud, Stonehouse and Gloucester.
1tph to Worcester Shrub Hill calling at Reading, Oxford and stations to Worcester with certain hour extensions to Hereford.

Peak pattern & variations
1tph to Bristol Temple Meads calling at Reading, Swindon, Chippenham and Bath Spa with certain hour extensions to Weston Super Mare and Exeter St Davids.
1tph to Bristol Temple Meads calling at Reading, Didcot Parkway, Swindon, Chippenham and Bath Spa.
1tph to Bristol Temple Meads calling at Chippenham and Bath Spa (calls assumed as these stations are not shown).
1tph to Cardiff Central calling at Bristol Parkway and Newport.
1tph to Cardiff Central calling at Didcot Parkway, Swindon, Bristol Parkway and Newport.
1tph to Swansea calling at Reading, Swindon, Bristol Parkway, Newport, Cardiff Central, Neath, Port Talbot Parkway and Bridgend with certain hour extensions to Camarthen.
1tph to Cheltenham Spa calling at Reading, Didcot Parkway, Swindon, Kemble, Stroud, Stonehouse and Gloucester.
1tph to Worcester Shrub Hill calling at Reading, Oxford and stations to Worcester with certain hour extensions to Hereford.
1tph to Worcester Shrub Hill calling at Didcot Parkway, Oxford and stations to Worcester.

The main differences between this pattern and the one previously stated by the DfT off peak is that the Swansea service now additionally calls at Swindon and Bristol Parkway, the Cardiff services now skips Reading running non-stop to Didcot Parkway, and services extended to Weston Super Mare from Bristol are now the one via Chippenham and Bath. In the peak the 2 tph that run via Bristol Parkway to Bristol instead has one running to Cardiff Central running non-stop between London and Bristol Parkway. The other runs via Chippenham and Bath to Bristol in the peak, not calling at any stations between Paddington and Chippenham. Also in the peak an additional service is shown running to Worcester, giving stations between Oxford and Worcester 2tph in the peak, and runs non-stop between London and Didcot Parkway.

The use of the term "certain hours only" is interesting for the extensions of services to Hereford, Weston Super Mare, Exeter St Davids and Camarthen, as this doesn't give as clear a frequency that these stations will be served. This particularly applies to Western Super Mare which in the DfTs pattern was going to be served hourly from London, and Hereford that the DfTs pattern showed as being served 2 hourly from London.

[Chris from Nailsea]

Many thanks for posting that very useful information here, MartinH - and welcome to the Coffee Shop forum!