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Author Topic: Are the railways prepared for massive solar events?  (Read 10947 times)
grahame
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« on: December 20, 2015, 19:23:07 »

From Motherboard

Quote
If you had found yourself in Cuba on September 1, 1859 ...

... Luckily, the largest solar flare occurred at a time in history when humanity was just on the cusp of electrifying everything, thereby limiting the resulting damage of the 1859 event. Yet if such a massive solar event were to occur today, the results would likely be catastrophic. As such, a number of the most vulnerable industries, such as aviation and telecommunications, are making sure they^re ready to handle extreme space weather events. Recently the European railways sector jumped on board this trend by hosting a conference to assess railways^ space weather preparedness, which they found to be less than adequate.
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broadgage
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2015, 20:16:41 »

In short no !
Electric railways are inherently very vulnerable to solar storms since they unavoidably involve long insulated electrical conductors.

Diesel or steam worked railways would be less vulnerable as regards motive power, but would still be severely affected by induced currents interfering with signalling equipment, and possibly destroying the modern electronics on which todays signalling relies.

Even heritage lines could suffer some damage, voltage induced in the rails could be dangerous to touch and might start fires.

Other infrastructure is also vulnerable to damaging currents induced in long conductors, the national grid would probably suffer severe damage, but long telephone lines, long metallic pipelines, and even long fences of metallic wire would also be at risk.

There has never been a truly severe solar storm in the modern era. The last one was at the very beginning of the railway age and little if any damage was caused, except to telegraph equipment, railway related or not.
Reliable reports referred to telegraph instruments catching fire, to operators receiving severe electric shocks, and messages being sent and received despite disconnecting the batteries.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
ellendune
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« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2015, 20:29:00 »

Other infrastructure is also vulnerable to damaging currents induced in long conductors, the national grid would probably suffer severe damage, but long telephone lines, long metallic pipelines, and even long fences of metallic wire would also be at risk.

Presumably only long metallic telephone lines - I assume fibre-optics would be OK. 
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broadgage
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« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2015, 23:12:32 »

Yes, most * fibre optic telephone or data cables would be unaffected by severe solar storms, as would be "line of sight" radio/microwave links.
Both modes of communication would of course be vulnerable to a general loss of power due to national grid damage.

*The exceptions would be firstly any fibre optic cables with metallic covering or armouring that is continuous over some miles, induced currents in this armouring might produce enough heat to damage the optical fibre.
Secondly, fibre optics run in close proximity to power cables would be damaged by any fires started by induced currents in such cables.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
TonyK
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2015, 09:43:11 »

You are assuming we have any electricity with which to power all the surviving equipment! Our already heavily burdened National Grid would collapse under the surge, and would take quite a few days to reset, if not longer. On the plus side, many wind-powered subsidy generators would die. Luckily, there is CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) back-up power for all those, so we wouldn't really notice them missing. If we haven't demolished all the coal-fired power stations by the time it happens, we could start those up again within a couple of weeks, even if it means using the railways for coal only for a short while.

It will be a mess if it happens, but we will get over it soon enough. The cost of trying to proof everything important for what is a very rare event would be astronomic, and may not even come close to doing a lot of good. At the moment, we can't even afford cheap, so it isn't going to happen.
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ellendune
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2015, 21:01:26 »

... On the plus side, many wind-powered subsidy generators would die. Luckily, there is CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) back-up power for all those, so we wouldn't really notice them missing. If we haven't demolished all the coal-fired power stations by the time it happens, we could start those up again within a couple of weeks, even if it means using the railways for coal only for a short while.

If wind generators are knocked out I am not clear why CCGT & even Coal Stations would be unaffected (unless they were not connected to the grid at the time.

It will be a mess if it happens, but we will get over it soon enough. The cost of trying to proof everything important for what is a very rare event would be astronomic, and may not even come close to doing a lot of good. At the moment, we can't even afford cheap, so it isn't going to happen.

Proofing everything might be, but there are some critical functions that need to happen.  Hospitals, water supply and sewerage (increasingly reliant on pumping rather than gravity) just for a start.
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broadgage
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2015, 21:35:21 »

There is no reason to suspect that wind turbines would be more vulnerable than fuel burning plant. Being erected in exposed locations, wind turbines are very well protected against surges caused by lightning, this would give some protection against surges from other sources.

Anyway, the main risk is not to power production facilities but to the long transmission lines of the national grid, and the transformers and switchgear connected thereto. Power plants, whether wind powered or fuel burning are easily protected by simply disconnecting from the grid and shutting down. The switchgear used for this disconnection may be destroyed, but the power station should be safe.

Replacing significant numbers of transformers and related switchgear could take years, remembering that only very limited spares are held and production is a lengthy process. And that presumes that the factory has power, other utilities, and raw materials, and that the workforce are available and able to get to work.

Vital facilities such as hospitals should be OK in the short term as they are equipped with diesel generators. In the longer term it depends on the reliability of the generators and on a continual supply of diesel fuel which is likely to be problematic.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
johnneyw
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2015, 22:11:52 »

I don't profess to being an electrical engineer, or indeed an astrophysicist but I have been told that solar flares can also have a detrimental effect on electricity sub stations. Is this possible or should I be disabused of a pub fact?
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stuving
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2015, 22:29:28 »

I don't profess to being an electrical engineer, or indeed an astrophysicist but I have been told that solar flares can also have a detrimental effect on electricity sub stations. Is this possible or should I be disabused of a pub fact?


I wonder. When I read about something like this, my first reaction is to ask for actual numbers so I can do an order-of-magnitude calculation. In this case there is a glaring absence of such numbers.

Looking around, it seems that the geomagnetic effect is a change of less than 10% of the Earth's field, which is itself not a lot in electrical engineering terms. Plugging in a few numbers such the height of a power line and its resistance per km, it is possible to estimate the worst case current that could ever flow (depending on the earthing of the line). Or almost - you really need the field change rate, or the time taken for the change of field. Well, with that nominal maximum field (less than 2000 nT), if it changed that much in 1 second (really it takes hours), my first stab at an answer is over 100 times too small to cause damage.

So I'm not convinced. The last big one - 1989 - famously led to a power cut across Quebec province. But that was because it tripped all the protection relays, so the grid lost sync and it took several hours to bring the generators back on line one by one. Nothing was damaged.

So maybe standard designs for overhead cables (of all kinds) now allow for induced voltages, and the problem's just gone away ... and nobody told the jounalists.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 22:39:16 by stuving » Logged
johnneyw
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2015, 22:53:31 »

Thanks stuving. My reading of that is, although not an impossibility, I'd be better of excercising myself with other matters a tad more! A bit like the doomsday "black hole" Large Hadron Collider stories of old... or should I take out black hole insurance?  Smiley
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« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2015, 23:25:38 »

I don't think we should be too worried or too complacent either.  The most likely damage would be to satellites which include the GPS system. Over reliance on GPS for critical functions would not be good if it comes to a coronal mass ejection.

However, in the USA NASA do not seem to be unduly worried about power grids.
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johnneyw
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« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2015, 23:53:11 »

Thankyou ellendune. I have seen Beeb documentaries highlighting this. Bad planning many years back.
Would not have happened if Brians on Tracey Island was left in charge!


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johnneyw
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« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2015, 23:55:01 »

Or Brains for that matter!
 Smiley
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broadgage
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« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2015, 00:49:09 »

I don't profess to being an electrical engineer, or indeed an astrophysicist but I have been told that solar flares can also have a detrimental effect on electricity sub stations. Is this possible or should I be disabused of a pub fact?


The degree of likely damage is largely related to the length of electric conductors affected. I would expect no significant affect on low voltage (230/400 volt) local distribution to homes etc. The 11KV network might suffer problems but would probably largely survive.
The real risk is severe damage to the high voltage grid network that supplies power in bulk for more local transformation and distribution.
Minor solar flares occur regularly, the risk comes from a severe solar storm.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
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« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2015, 06:06:51 »

..........since the railways seem unable to cope with annual seasonal temperature variations or virtually anything other than benign weather conditions, wind, leaves, ice, sunshine etc without disruption I would suggest that "massive solar events" should be someway down the list of things to worry about just for now?  Roll Eyes
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