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Author Topic: GWR Performance Figures  (Read 77087 times)
IndustryInsider
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« Reply #225 on: August 09, 2019, 11:02:58 am »

A definite dip in performance last period, when compared with the several preceding months of much improved figures.

That didn't stop the MAA (Moving Annual Average's) continue their steady climb upwards, as, for the most part, the same period last year was much worse.  A 0.4% increase in the MAA for Bristol Reliability (not shown on the graphs below) saw it climb out of the season ticket discount trigger.  Several other MAA's are getting close to getting above the discount trigger, HSS punctuality amongst them, and will do so in the coming months if the general improved trend continues.

The warmest ever day fell just after this period, so results from that will be included in the next period's figures.

Usual graphs attached:
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« Reply #226 on: September 02, 2019, 02:21:41 pm »

Punctuality held up reasonably well in the last period (covering up to 17th August) given the perception that it has been a difficult time for GWR.  HSS's recorded 'punctuality' figures of 90.7%, 14% higher than the same period in 2018 which led to the MAA (Moving Annual Average) jumping by over 1% to 88.3%, which is 0.3% above the season ticket discount trigger.  This means no season ticket discounts will be offered on renewal for the first time since early 2017.  Until March this year 10% discounts applied as 'reliability' was also triggering.

Speaking of reliability, and the period saw disappointing figures of between 97 and 99% for the different sectors.  Again though MAA's rose on the strength of the figures compared with the same period last year.

Elsewhere it was an 'OK' month, figures generally well up on this time last year, but nothing to crow about - 80.1 for LTV punctuality for example.

The recent change in reporting detail means a new graph!  It details the performance across the franchise for early arrivals, on time arrivals, arrivals within 3 minutes of the advertised time, within 15 minutes of the advertised time, and the cancellation rate.  The punctuality is measured at every station the train calls at rather than the final station for a much more accurate picture as artificial padding let to unrepresentative figures with the old method.  The statistics go back to April last year, although the MAA is only given from the start of this financial year.

Figures are also published for within 5 minutes, 10 minutes and over 15, 20 and 30 minutes, but I decided to try and keep the graph looking clean I would not include those figures.  They are available from the GWR website if you wish to see them: https://www.gwr.com/about-us/performance

This new graph, and the usual punctuality graphs are attached.
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« Reply #227 on: September 30, 2019, 04:02:55 pm »

A general performance uplift after a couple of months where it had dropped back a little.  HSS Punctuality was 95%, equalling the high of the past few years recorded a few periods back.  Elsewhere all the punctuality MAA's moved upwards, but it was a much more mixed picture for reliability where the staff shortages we've discussed on the forum have caused less than impressive figures to be recorded.  LTV only recorded 97.5% reliability causing the MAA to be knocked back by 0.2%.  Plymouth/Cornwall managed only 98.3% which was just enough to drop the MAA to the trigger mark of 98.5% after five months of being just above the trigger level.

Usual graphs attached.
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« Reply #228 on: October 28, 2019, 08:26:18 pm »

Latest figures up to 12th October on the usual graphs attached.

A pretty good month again.  HSS posting 94.9% punctuality and 99.8% reliability to match or nearly match the best in recent years.  The Wales to South Coast sector punctuality MAA went above the season ticket trigger level for the first time in almost two years, so only 5% season tickets will be offered on applicable flows there.  All other punctuality sectors also rose, with HSS climbing above the 'target' figure of 90% for the first time since the end of 2015 (it will actually be earlier than that, but I wasn't keeping records before then!).  Devon also climbed above the punctuality target for the first time since mid-2018.

The all stations punctuality metric hit a bit of a milestone for on time arrivals of 66.7%.
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« Reply #229 on: November 30, 2019, 06:50:41 pm »

Usual graphs attached for the four-weekly period up to 9th November.

A pretty reasonable period for punctuality and an 'ok' one for reliability.  HSS punctuality MAA now at 91.3% continuing its march upwards by about 1% each period over the last few months to a figure well over 1% higher than the target and that I've recorded since taking note of the stats at the end of 2015.  A figure of 79% for the next period this time last year should see that MAA move upwards again, as will most of the others before the challenge of the new timetable arrives along with the anniversary of a general improvement from the torrid figures which hit most of 2017/18. 

Elsewhere the Plymouth/Cornwall reliability figure just climbed out of the season ticket trigger level after dropping into it a couple of months ago.  Three discounts are now triggering, LTV punctuality, Bristol punctuality, and Wales to South Coast reliability.  The latter two could come out of that trigger threshold in a period or two with reasonable results.

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« Reply #230 on: December 13, 2019, 11:51:38 am »

Period nine.  The final set of performance figures before the new timetable, and the main period where those pesky leaves affect the figures.

We're still waiting on the all-day-all-stations data to be published, but the Passenger's Charter results are in.  HSS once again the current golden child of the franchise, posting 91.5% punctuality (12.5% up on the same period last year) which sees the MAA rise by another percent to 92.3%.   It was the next period last year where results started to improve on the dire 2018 results, so (with the added pressures of the new timetable) that might well be as high as it gets!

Other sectors were less impressive, LTV recording 73.9%, the worst of the year by some margin, but still over 8% better than the truly dreadful figure from the same period last year, so the MAA rose to 82.9%.  All other sectors were also better than this time last year, with the exception of 'Wales to South Coast' which was 0.7% down at 83.3%

Reliability figures were steady but not spectacular.  The one major blip being the reliability on the 'Plymouth/Cornwall' sector which, following prolonged problems on the Looe and Newquay branches, dropped to just 95.9%.  Good news in a way for season ticket holders renewing in the next month as that dropped the Reliability MAA down to 98.3% and below the 5% discount trigger again.  It's moved above or below the trigger level no less that eight times over the last year and a half.

Graphs attached...
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« Reply #231 on: December 22, 2019, 01:11:18 pm »

The 'missing' graph from the previous period now attached...
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« Reply #232 on: January 23, 2020, 01:49:11 pm »

Figures now published which covered three weeks of the new timetable introduction.  Though of course that three weeks also covered Christmas and New Year with all the subsequent alterations, so it's difficult to read too much into the results.  The real picture of the new timetable will become clearer next period.

Overall, I think there were a lot of relieved people within GWR.  The viability of the new timetable predicted by many to be under question (though not too many on here to be fair) proved to be largely unfounded.  Some of the Superfasts were still running early, and most of the other accelerated services were still keeping to time with little bother.  That's not to say everything has been rosy as several 'problem trains' have arisen (discussed on here), IET coupling/uncoupling continues to cause problems.  There have still been shortforms and cancellations due to crew shortages - although in both cases it has been much less of an issue than many expected.

So, how was the introduction of the new timetable reflected in the performance statistics?  Well, you could argue either way, but we were told to expect a dip in performance and there was one.  Not as big a dip as some feared mind you.

Of the six different sectors, punctuality rose in four of them compared with the previous period.  The drops were in HSS and LTV though, arguably the 'big hitters' and most important.  HSS dropped to 84.5%, some 5-10% below what had been the general figure over the previous year.  However that was still 10% or so above what was being achieved in mid to late 2018.  LTV was at 71.7%, third worst since I started recording the stats in late 2015, so clearly some work to be done there - how much a few infrastructure issues were the cause of that will become clearer over the coming months.

Reliability was poor for HSS, just 96.7%, the worst since March 2018, with other sectors hardly setting the world alight either.

The all-day, all-station figures were interesting.  Early arrivals and arrivals over 15 minutes late were down on last month, but on-time and within 3-minute arrivals were up.  All figures saw slight drops in the MAA though, and the cancellation stats (including partial as well as full cancellations) were up to 4.4% which is a very poor figure.

Usual graphs attached.  It will be very interesting to see the results from the next period.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2020, 01:23:09 pm by IndustryInsider » Logged

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« Reply #233 on: January 24, 2020, 08:03:17 pm »

Thanks as always for these.

Do you know what happens next year and how Thames Valley figures and discounts for Seasons will be calculated?

As I was stranded the other day I did wonder about which trains will count towards the GWR figures? I'm assuming I can use delay/repay in the same way I can claim for tube delays with my season ticket for TFL trains? Although quite how you calculate it I have no idea. One journey I caught GWR to Maidenhead but then picked up a much delayed TFL train to Twyford.
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« Reply #234 on: January 24, 2020, 10:44:24 pm »

Always good to see the black and white of the numbers.
Without wanting to be a stuck record and dwell upon how many services at peak are dropping maidenhead/twyford as the final stop before Paddington in order to make up lost time, is there any way that these cancellations get reflected in the tracked metrics?
I would hate to reach the end of the year and be told that everything has been peachy because the trains dropped my particular stop in order to fudge the numbers...
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« Reply #235 on: January 25, 2020, 11:52:07 am »

Always good to see the black and white of the numbers.
Without wanting to be a stuck record and dwell upon how many services at peak are dropping maidenhead/twyford as the final stop before Paddington in order to make up lost time, is there any way that these cancellations get reflected in the tracked metrics?
I would hate to reach the end of the year and be told that everything has been peachy because the trains dropped my particular stop in order to fudge the numbers...

That's a good question.  As I understand it...

1)  Season tickets from Twyford/Maidenhead would come under the London/Thames Valley sector.  Punctuality data for that is based on Monday-Friday arrivals into London between 7am and 10am, and departures from London between 4-7pm on weekdays  Reliability figures are based on all day Monday to Friday statistics.
2)  Any train that is cancelled in part or full, or misses a stop, or arrives at its destination over 30 minutes late during those periods becomes a CaSL (Cancelled or Significantly Late) service and they then fail the PPM (Public Performance Measure) which means they score against the reliability target.
3)  The London/Thames Valley sector has a punctuality MAA (Moving Annual Average) trigger of 89% and in the four years I've been logging the scores they haven't got close to reaching that.  Nearest was 85.5% in 2016, with the figure currently at 82.6%, so I would be amazed if that trend was to buck upwards so a 5% discount didn't apply. 
4)  For a 10% discount on London/Thames Valley reliability needs to fall below 98% on the MAA.  It did that between March and December 2018, but has been above that since and is currently at 98.6%.  The monthly figure for the last two months has been just below 98%, so if that trend continued then 98% could be triggered again, so that's one to keep an eye on - I will keep everyone updated on this thread.

A few additional points that may alter the above:

1)  Now TfL Rail have taken over the majority of services from Twyford and Maidenhead I am not sure whether it would be their performance figures and procedures that now apply, even though the majority of peak travellers will use GWR services.
2)  A new direct award extension to the franchise or change of operator of the franchise could change the targets for punctuality and/or reliability (though recent direct awards haven't).
3)  Delay-Repay 15 is in use for daily or weekly tickets and the intention is to extend that to longer season tickets at some point.  That would make the PPM figures redundant in terms of season tickets renewal discounts.

Hope that helps, and happy to be corrected on any points as it's a bit of a minefield!
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« Reply #236 on: February 14, 2020, 03:21:45 pm »

The first full month of 'new timetable' figures are now in.

Some highs and lows as you might expect, but generally pretty encouraging stuff in my opinion.

A high is the performance of the HSS sector.  Charter punctuality was 88.6% for the period, which is 4% higher than the previous period that straddled the timetable change, and only 2% less than the same period last year.  Reliability was 99.1%.  The all day Public Performance Measure for HSS rose 8% on last period.  Yes, it was the second lowest in over a year, but was way higher than figures being recorded in 2018 as an example.  Given the bedding in period I think that's much better than many expected, including myself.

A low is the LTV sector charter punctuality, which was a woeful 63.2% and the lowest I've ever recorded.  That is countered by the all-day PPM score which was a very high 91.3%, above the Moving Annual Average for the last year.  Clearly the peak service on LTV has some way to go though.

Elsewhere the 'Bristol' sector struggled a bit recording just a 79.9% punctuality, and an 85.7% score for 'Wales to South Coast' meant it dipped below the season ticket discount trigger by 0.1% to 88.9%.  To counter that, the all-day cancellation figure across the franchise (which includes trains missing stations, not reaching destination or not starting from planned origin) dropped to 1.9% from a very poor 4.4% the previous period.

Usual graphs attached, plus I'll add another two attachments to an extra post to show some more data, including what a good year 2019 was when compared to 2018, especially for HSS where the 92% figure was well over 10% higher than in 2018!
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« Reply #237 on: February 14, 2020, 03:22:30 pm »

The two extra attachments of data...
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« Reply #238 on: February 14, 2020, 05:23:27 pm »

LTV performance has been stubbornly bad for years.

Things we know have changed with the new timetable:
- some services have been transferred to TFL (and therefore presumably not included in the targets)
- electric services are now running to an electric performance envelope, not the 165/166 timings - removing some of the recovery time
- there's some glitches in the new timetable e.g. 0740 DID-OXF

But what is it that's breaking the performance?
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« Reply #239 on: February 14, 2020, 05:46:10 pm »

- some services have been transferred to TFL (and therefore presumably not included in the targets)

I think that is the largest part of explaining the difference between the LTV Passengers Charter figure (very poor at 63.2%) and the LTV all day PPM figure (not too bad at all at 91.3%).  GWR run a good percentage fewer trains that would qualify as trains for the Passengers Charter figures since TfL Rail took over quite a few of them, so the few they do run need to perform otherwise the stats fall very quickly.
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