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Author Topic: Referendum - result of vote, and implications for transport in the UK  (Read 30089 times)
Rhydgaled
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« Reply #75 on: July 03, 2016, 10:00:14 »

If Theresa May gets in, the third runway at Heathrow is almost certainly doomed - for now. She, as MP (Member of Parliament) for Maidenhead, has always been an opponent if not a die-for-the-cause one, and may give the gig to Gatwick. But as I have said before elsewhere in the Coffee Shop, the only outcome that could ever be regarded as final is the building of the third runway at Heathrow.
The only correct answer, and the only other final one would be to quantify the amount of greenhouse effect that the extra flghts using an additional runway would cause and categorically decide that is unacceptable, and refuse ANY further airport expansion. To make it final may require leglislation, outlawing any government from allowing aviation emissions from flights out of British airports to rise above current levels.
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Don't DOO (Driver-Only Operation (that is, trains which operate without carrying a guard)) it, keep the guard (but it probably wouldn't be a bad idea if the driver unlocked the doors on arrival at calling points).
John R
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« Reply #76 on: July 03, 2016, 10:58:55 »

The current generation of planes and engines are much more efficient (and quieter) than even those built 20 years ago.  One of the reasons why planes that still have a useful life in them are being pensioned off by the main airlines early. And a new runway at Heathrow should eliminate the inevitable stacking that means flights returning to LHR are not only in the air longer but need to carry more fuel thus making the whole journey less fuel efficient.

But why stop there?  Why not ration flights, allowing individuals only one flight a year, for holiday or business.  Or say no new rail services over the current timetable can be introduced as they will increase carbon emission. And whilst we are at it, pass a law criminalising the sale of beef as the methane they produce is much worse the CO2 and a Kg of beef generates 7 x as much emission as does chicken. (Agriculture worldwide produces more greenhouse gases than the whole transport sector.)

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Rhydgaled
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« Reply #77 on: July 03, 2016, 14:30:50 »

But why stop there?  Why not ration flights, allowing individuals only one flight a year, for holiday or business.
I wouldn't go that far, but I would like to see reform of aviation taxation so there is a basic landing/take-off tax plus an 'air-passenger duty' element with individuals having a 'ration' of flights for which they don't have to pay the air-passenger duty.

Or say no new rail services over the current timetable can be introduced as they will increase carbon emission.
Not necessarily, it depends how much modal shift from more-polluting modes an improved rail service can create.

And whilst we are at it, pass a law criminalising the sale of beef as the methane they produce is much worse the CO2 and a Kg of beef generates 7 x as much emission as does chicken. (Agriculture worldwide produces more greenhouse gases than the whole transport sector.)
I didn't suggest banning aviation altogether did I, criminalising the sale of beef would be a much bigger step. Policies to stop meet becoming a larger part of pepole's diets would be more-comparable to my stance on aviation, not sure how you could go about it though. Plus, food is an essential, long-haul travel is not.
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Don't DOO (Driver-Only Operation (that is, trains which operate without carrying a guard)) it, keep the guard (but it probably wouldn't be a bad idea if the driver unlocked the doors on arrival at calling points).
ChrisB
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« Reply #78 on: July 03, 2016, 16:24:04 »

History will not be at all kind to David....that's for sure

I suspect it'll be kinder to David than it will be to Jeremy.

That depends whether Jeremy ever loses an election....
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #79 on: July 03, 2016, 16:47:25 »

History will not be at all kind to David....that's for sure

I suspect it'll be kinder to David than it will be to Jeremy.

That depends whether Jeremy ever loses an election....

.............You're making quite a leap of faith to assume he'll ever to get to fight one!  Grin
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ellendune
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« Reply #80 on: July 03, 2016, 18:08:43 »

History will not be at all kind to David....that's for sure

I suspect it'll be kinder to David than it will be to Jeremy.

Depends what happens.  If he causes the Labour Party to split up, or wins and election(!) then he will be remembered.  Otherwise I suspect he will be forgotten, like so many others. 

David on the other hand will be remembered either as the PM who took us out of the EU» (European Union - about), or who caused us to sleepwalk out of the EU, or the PM who lead us to a new future outside the EU, or perhaps the PM who sacrificed the interests of the country for the interests of his party.  We await the judgement of history.   
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TonyK
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« Reply #81 on: July 03, 2016, 18:30:52 »

The only correct answer, and the only other final one would be to quantify the amount of greenhouse effect that the extra flghts using an additional runway would cause and categorically decide that is unacceptable, and refuse ANY further airport expansion. To make it final may require leglislation, outlawing any government from allowing aviation emissions from flights out of British airports to rise above current levels.

Good luck with that one! You could achieve that by increasing air travel tax even further, whilst putting on frequent direct Eurostar trains to Charles de Gaulle airport for anyone wanting to travel to a different continent. I'm sure Air France would be pleased to help arrange cross-ticketing, and they wouldn't need to worry about the UK (United Kingdom) complaining under EU» (European Union - about) competition rules.

The current generation of planes and engines are much more efficient (and quieter) than even those built 20 years ago.  One of the reasons why planes that still have a useful life in them are being pensioned off by the main airlines early. And a new runway at Heathrow should eliminate the inevitable stacking that means flights returning to LHR are not only in the air longer but need to carry more fuel thus making the whole journey less fuel efficient.


Correct. There was a time when fuel economy was only considered because of the need to optimise range of aircraft. The Boeing 747, brought into service over 45 years ago, was not intended to go into long-term production as a passenger aircraft because of the expectation of fleets of supersonic craft by the late 1970s. Until 1973's oil crisis, that seemed likely. Since then, aircraft design has sought to actively reduce fuel consumption with each successive model. The development of the high bypass turbofan was a major leap forward in reducing both noise and fuel consumption by getting much more thrust for the same fuel. The unducted turbofan could take this even further within a decade, although development stalled as fuel prices fell. The use of composite materials in place of metals has lightened aircraft considerably, and even the newer style seats offer a significant saving in weight, and therefore fuel.

A new runway would reduce or eliminate stacking over Heathrow, but it doesn't have to be at Heathrow. Gatwick are willing to take on the job at a reduced price...
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ChrisB
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« Reply #82 on: July 03, 2016, 21:10:14 »

History will not be at all kind to David....that's for sure

I suspect it'll be kinder to David than it will be to Jeremy.

That depends whether Jeremy ever loses an election....

.............You're making quite a leap of faith to assume he'll ever to get to fight one!  Grin

I wasn't....hence my yse of 'ever'!!
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simonw
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« Reply #83 on: July 04, 2016, 09:19:24 »

I have always that predicting the future is risky, but here goes.

I do not think BREXIT will happen, but the threat of it will linger for years, and this alone will make the government want to invest more diversely and cheaply in the future.

So, I expect HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) to be downgraded, Heathrow will be expanded but with the much cheaper split runway option to give 1 long runway and two short runways, and Gatwick will get a new runway.

Seriously, none of the likely two conservative candidates has been an HS2 fan, and whilst both will probably want to be seen as rail friendly, I think HS2 as it stands now is toast. Neither candidate has been a backer of Heathrow expansion, but some form of expansion will be needed, preferably funded by Heathrow itself. The most interesting investment to ponder will be HS3. With devolution of Manchester, Merseyside, West and South Yorkshire this scheme become more important.

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TonyK
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« Reply #84 on: July 04, 2016, 13:20:10 »

I have always that predicting the future is risky, but here goes.

I do not think BREXIT will happen, but the threat of it will linger for years, and this alone will make the government want to invest more diversely and cheaply in the future.

So, I expect HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) to be downgraded, Heathrow will be expanded but with the much cheaper split runway option to give 1 long runway and two short runways, and Gatwick will get a new runway.

Seriously, none of the likely two conservative candidates has been an HS2 fan, and whilst both will probably want to be seen as rail friendly, I think HS2 as it stands now is toast. Neither candidate has been a backer of Heathrow expansion, but some form of expansion will be needed, preferably funded by Heathrow itself. The most interesting investment to ponder will be HS3. With devolution of Manchester, Merseyside, West and South Yorkshire this scheme become more important.



I'm not that good at predicting the past with any degree of accuracy!

I think, with sadness in my case, that Brexit is all but inevitable. The various surveys have shown the various dividing factors in the vote - north more likely to vote Leave than the south, young more likely to vote Remain than the over 55s by a large margin, but a lot less likely to bother to vote, AB groups more for remain than CD (Capital Delivery) etc. There will be no second vote because, as Jeremy Clarkson, the columnist, said so succinctly in yesterday's Sunday Times:

Quote
...this would infuriate millions of idiotic north of England coffin-dodgers who are prepared to bankrupt the country simply because they don’t want to live next door to a “darkie”. Many will write angry letters full of capital letters and underlining to their local newspapers. And there will be lots of discontent in various bingo halls, but who cares? They’ll all be dead soon anyway.

before qualifying this somewhat courageous stance by adding:

Quote
It’s also true to say that a second vote would make us look ridiculous on the world stage. But better to look silly for a short time than to live for ever in a dimly lit, poverty-stricken, festering nest of warts, mud and minority-bashing incidents on the bus home every evening.

I think we have our chief Brexit negotiator's name already. Shut him in a room with Jean-Claude Juncker, a vat of wine, and no steak dinner, and let's see who comes out looking smug!

This is not, however, the constituency of voters that will elect the new leader of the Conservative Party, and therefore the Prime Minister. After the Parliamentary Conservative Party has whittled the field down to two candidates, the decision will be made by the same grass roots members of local Conservative and Unionist associations who voted 2 to 1 to leave Europe.

The threat of Brexit may loom over us for years, or if Andrea Leadsom (but not the rest - pun) gets her way, it may be replaced by the reality within 12 months. Either way, economic stimulus will be needed, and that will largely come from government borrowing, now that George Osborne has binned the fag packet with the original recovery plan on the back. Infrastructure spending will be crucial.

Theresa May is pro-HS2, but the price tag may frighten her. There is another plan for HS1 (High Speed line 1 - St Pancras to Channel Tunnel)½ costing just over half of HS2, with less engineering, a top speed of around 180mph, and probably no buffet car. The work that has taken place so far will fit this plan easily, but surely it is a step back from the future? My own take on HS2 is that we need an extra rail line between south and north because the existing ones are full. If we are building it, why not make it high speed, rather than a very long copy of the Severn Beach line? HS2 will stay, but expect compromise solutions to save cash, such as much smaller termini. Andrea Leadsom is a former investment banker who can see the need to take a major project forward quickly, as well as the loot to be gathered by the City along the way. Michael Gove's opinion is probably utterly irrelevant by now.

The Northern Powerhouse, and therefore HS3, currently lives in hope because of George Osborne. It will survive him when he is thrown onto his sword, because the northerners, particularly Lancashire and Yorkshire, are a stubborn lot who know their own minds, are not afraid of saying so, and who have been proven right in the past. Look at the campaign of almost civil disobedience when Alistair Darling had the temerity to cancel the last-but-one upgrade of Manchester's tram system. He was shamed into changing his mind, and Metrolink has gone from strength to strength since, linking some of the more deprived towns in the area (my birth town included) to the fast growing Metrolopse.

To my mind, it makes sense to crack on with it, with or without HS2. The new Chancellor may find the coffers a little sparse, but he will borrow what is needed, other than a small almost token rise in taxes somewhere to remind us that we are a poorer nation for leaving the EU» (European Union - about), whether that is true or not.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2016, 13:31:13 by Four Track, Now! » Logged

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simonw
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« Reply #85 on: July 04, 2016, 13:33:15 »

Almost totally agree with you!

HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) will proceed more cheaply, good bye Euston upgrade (silly expensive idea) and slower track speeds. Heathrow will get the cheap upgrade with restrictions on plane noise and pollution and Gatwick will get a new runway to take some pressure of Heathrow.

On the subject of Brexit, I can see soft peddling by MPs (Member of Parliament)/Lords, court cases, appeals and General elections .. we'll still be in it in 5 years time.
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TonyK
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« Reply #86 on: July 04, 2016, 13:37:16 »

Time will tell, simonw!

One option I have seen is that, with Sir John Chilcot being out of a job by teatime on Wednesday, we appoint him to negotiate the exit. That should give us at least 10 years to stuff the mattress with Euros.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2016, 18:23:53 by Four Track, Now! » Logged

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« Reply #87 on: July 04, 2016, 15:42:13 »

More to the point for this website the question arises, will any of the contenders have any sort of opinion whatever regarding the pronouncements of the South West Peninsular Taskforce? Hopefully they will, not least because the political map of the West Country is predominantly blue, and if they don't make some sort of commitment their Lib Dem rivals surely will.

Do other users of this forum have an opinion, one way or another, on this simmering topic?
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ChrisB
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« Reply #88 on: July 04, 2016, 16:39:50 »

Well, Farage has now gone & jumped the ship too....not that I'd have wanted him around the negotiating table, but some might.

Imports are going to be dearer, fuel may rise by around 5p/litre, but ots already at a low price, so not a disaster. The FT indexes are however, well above where they were on Referendum Thursday, so the City doesn't yet see a looming disaster/recession yet.

I also think that EU» (European Union - about) nationals already legally here win't be sent home, soneone is rumour-mongering there. There are over a million more Brits in the EU than EU citizens here....
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TonyK
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« Reply #89 on: July 04, 2016, 17:27:21 »

Oberon, I can't see there being much change at the SWPTF. It wasn't funded by Europe in any great way, and is really pressing for improvements that are long due. It has work to do in examining the possible deployment of stock due to be cascaded when Bristol gets its hand-me-downs from further east.

ChrisB, no serious contender for either Prime Minister or Brexit negotiator will say what will happen to foreign nationals already here. To say that anyone in the country on the day we pull up the drawbridge could cause a stampede of people desperate to get in whilst there is time, and take advantage of an amnesty. It could also put UK (United Kingdom) expats at a disadvantage.

Having Farage at the negotiating table would have got us the worst deal imaginable. He has all the diplomatic and negotiating skills of a blow on the head with a blunt instrument.

Not sure about the FT, but the FT, N! index has rallied. I wish I'd bought some shares last week, though, as well as my holiday money. There'll be another chance, I'm sure.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2016, 18:27:30 by Four Track, Now! » Logged

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