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grahame
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« on: November 13, 2016, 13:58:07 » |
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Publication of the annual station usage figures is scheduled for 6th December on the ORR» website Estimates of Station Usage - Official Statistics Annual(2015-16) 06/12/2016
Although there are underlying anomalies for many stations, these anomalies tend to carry on year to year and the change in figures from one year to the next gives us valuable (if 9 months late!) data. Anyone like to hazard any guesses? |
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Coffee Shop Admin, Acting Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, Option 24/7 Melksham Rep
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John R
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2016, 14:16:10 » |
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Indeed the mid point of the data is even later, as we are comparing April 15 to Mar 16 with April 14 to Mar 15. So on average it's sort of looking at a Sep 14 to Sep15 comparison if trying to spot trends.
But what that does mean is that the trend for MKM» will be clear for once, as last year's figures, when compared against the previous year, would not have been a true comparison, given that Apr to Dec 13 was prior to the service enhancement. (If that all makes sense?)
Unfortunately the figures will be slightly muddied by the Box Tunnel closure, but I'll pluck a figure out of thin air and say +50% for MKM.
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grahame
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2016, 17:05:13 » |
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Indeed the mid point of the data is even later, as we are comparing April 15 to Mar 16 with April 14 to Mar 15. So on average it's sort of looking at a Sep 14 to Sep15 comparison if trying to spot trends.
But what that does mean is that the trend for MKM» will be clear for once, as last year's figures, when compared against the previous year, would not have been a true comparison, given that Apr to Dec 13 was prior to the service enhancement. (If that all makes sense?) Utter senses as I have lived these figures and statistics  . In each of the two last reports (for years to March 2014 and to March 2015) the Melksham figure doubled. So the introduction of the trial service was reports in two steps. If the figures were published from one timetable chafe to the next, you would probably have seen around 8,000 for 2013 rise to somewhere like 45,000 for 2014 and then to 65,000 for 2015, and I would be projecting 90,000 for 2016. Unfortunately the figures will be slightly muddied by the Box Tunnel closure, but I'll pluck a figure out of thin air and say +50% for MKM. Not far out, I suspect, John. I'm going to guess at around 80,000 - up from 58,000 and a rise of just under 40%, which is still not too shabby. Looking further forward, the percentage growth will probably creep down but continue to be high for a number of years, assuming (and this is dangerous) that the line has the capacity to handle it. One of the reasons for figures to start dropping is that people are being put off overcrowded trains and until they're longer you're going to see traffic being stunted from now. Actually I wasn't only interested in Melksham in my question ... there are 200+ other GWR▸ stations ... |
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Coffee Shop Admin, Acting Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, Option 24/7 Melksham Rep
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John R
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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2016, 06:35:57 » |
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I recall in previous years it gets uploaded mid morning.
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grahame
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2016, 11:23:33 » |
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Here is a summary of how stations in the "South West" have fared over the year from 2014/15 to 2015/16 Sorted by growth (first column shows 2015/16 over 2014/15). Second column is 14-15 and third column is 15-16.
4.675 BIT 88440 413432 Bicester Town
2.820 LEL 2874 8104 Lelant
1.846 COE 26 48 Coombe
1.792 LNG 8960 16058 Longcross
1.683 KGN 3422 5758 King's Nympton
1.528 ISP 6858 10482 Islip
1.259 SER 204806 257802 St.Erth
1.234 MEN 4128 5096 Menheniot
1.170 MKM» 51858 60676 Melksham
1.170 DPT 33968 39742 Devonport
1.170 CME 1248 1460 Combe
1.161 SVB 224658 260784 Severn Beach
1.159 SIP 4884 5660 Shipton
1.139 WBL 34040 38764 Warblington
1.135 QUI 1394 1582 Quintrel Downs
1.131 KGS 63340 71644 King's Sutton
1.126 SJP 64586 72712 St.James' Park
1.126 AUW 4026 4532 Ascott-Under-Wychwood
1.121 DID» 3083258 3456680 Didcot Parkway
1.118 NRC 86984 97254 Newbury Racecourse
1.117 TRR 274708 306802 Torre
1.117 GRT 250840 280160 Grateley
1.115 HND 243568 271496 Handborough
1.106 ROC▸ 2310 2556 Roche
1.106 PSN 114458 126636 Parson Street
1.103 BSM 256342 282650 Branksome
1.102 SCS 101004 111316 Starcross
1.098 MVL 313526 344232 Malvern Link
1.098 CKN 141812 155696 Crewkerne
1.097 LNY 726202 796614 Langley
1.095 AMT 74846 81968 Aldermaston
1.094 FZP 166904 182676 Furze Platt
1.085 CFN▸ 619766 672386 Clifton Down
1.084 HYD 38068 41276 Heyford
1.084 BRU 34096 36950 Bruton
1.083 AVN 119924 129860 Avonmouth
1.081 THA 535172 578410 Thatcham
1.081 SHH 52480 56756 Shirehampton
1.080 SAB 11230 12134 Smallbrook Junction
1.080 RLN 110676 119534 Rowland's Castle
1.080 HGD 344156 371804 Hungerford
1.075 PGN 631506 678656 Paignton
1.073 CBY 305284 327518 Charlbury
1.073 BPW» 2340506 2511016 Bristol Parkway
1.071 RDW 385332 412642 Reading West
1.071 LTS 116798 125064 Lelant Saltings
1.070 CHR 465334 498016 Christchurch
1.069 TVP 447284 478250 Tiverton Parkway
1.069 CNM» 2038404 2178472 Cheltenham Spa
1.068 TQY 457724 488854 Torquay
1.068 TAP 247068 263958 Taplow
1.067 PEW 218616 233196 Pewsey
1.067 LYM 99052 105738 Lympstone Village
1.067 BAS 37082 39570 Bere Alston
1.066 MIM 237198 252950 Moreton-In-Marsh
1.065 TAC▸ 22612 24078 Tackley
1.064 FSB» 73178 77846 Fishbourne
1.062 TGM 602886 640112 Teignmouth
1.062 PWY 92540 98296 Patchway
1.062 PIN 88872 94354 Pinhoe
1.061 BRI» 10099526 10711464 Bristol Temple Meads
1.061 BMT 87542 92868 Bedminster
1.059 SFR 135600 143668 Shalford
1.058 NLS 450510 476618 Nailsea & Backwell
1.058 KEY 6936 7338 Keyham
1.057 DWW 157212 166248 Dawlish Warren
1.056 PSH 95310 100690 Pershore
1.054 LED 203612 214632 Ledbury
1.054 DTW 533268 561908 Droitwich Spa
1.054 BAW 507298 534794 Blackwater
1.053 FNT 70534 74294 Feniton
1.052 WTI 490878 516284 Winnersh Triangle
1.052 GCR» 1364142 1435698 Gloucester
1.051 BDW 115808 121700 Bedwyn
1.050 RAD 138896 145904 Radley
1.050 MTN 54782 57522 Moreton (Dorset)
1.050 CDI 52492 55112 Crediton
1.048 CWL 63560 66642 Colwall
1.047 LWH 150774 157912 Lawrence Hill
1.046 TAU» 1315144 1375546 Taunton
1.046 NBY» 1745710 1826560 Newbury
1.045 FLE 1814208 1896110 Fleet
1.044 FTN 1643624 1715878 Fratton
1.044 CDU▸ 185504 193640 Cam & Dursley
1.042 YAE 354004 368910 Yate
1.041 BAG 166896 173680 Bagshot
1.041 ASC 87384 91000 Ashchurch
1.040 BAN 2336852 2429822 Banbury
1.039 WSM 1099844 1143152 Weston-Super-Mare
1.039 WOS» 595402 618467 Worcester Shrub Hill
1.039 WOF 2207508 2293021 Worcester Foregate Street
1.038 GER 1407408 1461276 Gerrards Cross
1.038 EXC 2343636 2433006 Exeter Central
1.037 POL 116552 120826 Polsloe Bridge
1.037 HAM 157940 163854 Hamworthy
1.036 YVJ 214748 222396 Yeovil Junction
1.035 MLF 270866 280252 Milford (Surrey)
1.035 MAI▸ 4307576 4459110 Maidenhead
1.034 MRD 11822 12222 Morchard Road
1.033 WTY 271366 280228 Witley
1.033 WAN 111714 115348 Wanborough
1.033 SAL 1963292 2028148 Salisbury
1.033 KEM 356078 367758 Kemble
1.032 WKM 2344598 2420218 Wokingham
1.032 HYB 56178 57978 Honeybourne
1.032 BSK▸ 5561414 5739458 Basingstoke
1.031 PAN 431404 444648 Pangbourne
1.031 EVE 247724 255476 Evesham
1.031 BCE 2315218 2386098 Bracknell
1.030 SIV 638754 657750 St.Ives
1.030 FRO» 169482 174644 Frome
1.030 AHV 474462 488636 Ash Vale
1.028 WSB» 529358 544244 Westbury
1.028 SGM 57102 58676 St.Germans
1.028 KYN 412602 424032 Keynsham
1.028 HFD» 1192912 1226444 Hereford
1.028 EGG 29106 29920 Eggesford
1.028 CRN‡ 303816 312430 Crowthorne
1.027 STD 490546 504006 Stroud
1.027 NWM 603240 619686 New Milton
1.027 CLA 216602 222396 Clandon
1.027 AVF 19432 19948 Avoncliff
1.026 WOR 291502 299014 Worle
1.026 PKS 226270 232130 Parkstone
1.026 NTA» 1141040 1170480 Newton Abbot
1.026 CAM 460372 472358 Camberley
1.026 BNE 244818 251288 Bourne End
1.025 THE 475938 487678 Theale
1.025 RDG‡ 16339602 16755984 Reading
1.025 LIS 230454 236142 Liss
1.025 GMV 543198 557012 Great Malvern
1.025 FML 210102 215418 Frimley
1.025 EXT 213848 219232 Exeter St. Thomas
1.025 ACT 1225750 1255918 Ascot
1.024 EXD» 2509220 2569104 Exeter St. David's
1.024 BMH 2624682 2688160 Bournemouth
1.024 ADV 1178074 1205858 Andover
1.023 SHE 216114 220980 Sherborne
1.023 MDG 33996 34772 Midgham
1.023 CHL 25910 26498 Chilworth
1.022 SWI» 3503982 3580540 Swindon
1.022 GOR 401356 410134 Goring & Streatley
1.022 AHT 1434250 1465212 Aldershot
1.021 OVR 193098 197158 Overton
1.021 DCW 131408 134105 Dorchester West
1.021 DCH 471340 481015 Dorchester South
1.021 AXM 386226 394438 Axminster
1.020 KGM 180536 184218 Kingham
1.019 LIP▸ 502362 511796 Liphook
1.018 COO 213964 217826 Cookham
1.017 HOK 809570 823478 Hook
1.016 VIR 596322 606042 Virginia Water
1.016 MOR 183146 186084 Mortimer
1.016 HIG 190396 193462 Highbridge & Burnham
1.015 WNS 520922 528564 Winnersh
1.015 WNM 64494 65450 Weston Milton
1.015 PTR 1360682 1380900 Petersfield
1.014 TMC 113732 115378 Templecombe
1.014 GLD 8090682 8200644 Guildford
1.014 FNH 1633504 1656962 Farnham
1.014 FIT 1007780 1021550 Filton Abbey Wood
1.012 WCH 287880 291280 Whitchurch (Hampshire)
1.012 PTC 393750 398606 Portchester
1.012 POK 315302 318958 Pokesdown
1.012 DAT 351798 356114 Datchet
1.012 AON 744138 753202 Alton
1.011 LEO 273912 276904 Leominster
1.011 BWT 308856 312292 Bridgwater
1.010 WOO 188168 190126 Wool
1.010 SRD 178114 179872 Stapleton Road
1.010 HSL 1785362 1804054 Haslemere
1.010 HAV 2351802 2375640 Havant
1.010 CHO 272430 275100 Cholsey
1.010 BNM 1285000 1297344 Burnham
1.009 EAR 639888 645500 Earley
1.008 TWY▸ 1369126 1379522 Twyford
1.007 OLF 312946 315070 Oldfield Park
1.007 MAO 584142 588416 Martins Heron
1.007 BFE 16858 16982 Bere Ferrers
1.006 SND 155342 156218 Sandhurst
1.006 KIT 92552 93092 Kintbury
1.006 HOT 771406 776282 Henley-On-Thames
1.006 GIL 423212 425660 Gillingham (Dorset)
1.005 PNM 201662 202660 Penmere
1.005 BKO 989826 995142 Brookwood
1.004 SBV 10332 10376 St.Budeaux Victoria Road
1.004 IVR 224740 225704 Iver
1.004 BAA 1015654 1019876 Barnham
1.003 WOK 7963172 7989232 Woking
1.003 SHU 148380 148786 Stonehouse
1.003 CSK 33704 33794 Calstock
1.002 WPL 209504 210012 Worplesdon
1.002 TOP 231122 231660 Topsham
1.002 RYP 218060 218410 Ryde Pier Head
1.002 APF 7738 7752 Appleford
1.001 FRM 1785204 1787200 Fareham
1.000 TRO» 903248 902966 Trowbridge
1.000 SNG 697686 697446 Sunningdale
1.000 CCH 3232654 3231354 Chichester
1.000 ASH 288550 288430 Ash
0.999 TOT 657754 657370 Totnes
0.999 TIS‡ 241524 241340 Tisbury
0.999 HLS 325254 324842 Hilsea
0.998 BTY 150858 150558 Bentley
0.997 WGV 95910 95646 Wargrave
0.997 PLY» 2495248 2487562 Plymouth
0.997 GOD 1389206 1385590 Godalming
0.997 EXM 927182 924112 Exmouth
0.996 SHN 294698 293654 Shanklin
0.995 HON 391860 389784 Honiton
0.994 YET 7064 7022 Yetminster
0.994 SLO 5561672 5529074 Slough
0.993 WNC 1885272 1872790 Windsor & Eton Central
0.993 WHM▸ 68896 68448 Whimple
0.993 FNC 870668 864546 Farncombe
0.992 SAU 467806 464000 St.Austell
0.991 WNR 1498216 1484182 Windsor & Eton Riverside
0.991 OXF» 6624954 6564678 Oxford
0.991 CSA 976770 967946 Cosham
0.990 DEN 25808 25550 Dean
0.989 LOS 68240 67472 Lostwithiel
0.989 BOH 103510 102358 Bosham
0.988 PNZ 549730 543036 Penzance
0.988 GSL 54356 53728 Gunnislake
0.987 LKE 53006 52310 Lake
0.987 BOD 237776 234792 Bodmin Parkway
0.986 SHI 92580 91314 Shiplake
0.986 EMS▸ 390052 384490 Emsworth
0.986 BTH» 6222126 6134318 Bath Spa
0.986 BNP▸ 427394 421346 Barnstaple
0.986 BMY 277720 273790 Bramley (Hampshire)
0.984 LSK 357086 351394 Liskeard
0.984 CLC▸ 245296 241466 Castle Cary
0.983 LYC 54972 54026 Lympstone Commando
0.982 WEY 756022 742236 Weymouth
0.982 DIG 571510 561188 Digby and Sowton
0.981 FIN 1804 1770 Finstock
0.980 STS 68526 67174 Saltash
0.980 PMS 2156486 2113681 Portsmouth & Southsea
0.980 PMH 2206210 2162417 Portsmouth Harbour
0.980 BOA 534946 524180 Bradford-On-Avon
0.978 YAT 435626 426246 Yatton
0.978 WMN» 388422 379830 Warminster
0.976 WNF 378578 369426 Winchfield
0.976 TLH 546658 533300 Tilehurst
0.975 WRM 344542 335818 Wareham
0.975 RYR▸ 184924 180220 Ryde St.John's Road
0.972 RYD 289574 281344 Ryde Esplanade
0.972 RED 343722 334194 Redruth
0.972 FFD 44414 43160 Freshford
0.972 BOG 1236794 1202460 Bognor Regis
0.971 GOM 58480 56806 Gomshall
0.971 FNN 666162 646536 Farnborough North
0.971 FNB 3081070 2990294 Farnborough (Main)
0.971 EXN 23078 22400 Exton
0.971 BDH 136952 132926 Bedhampton
0.967 SNY 46850 45300 Sunnymeads
0.965 LYD 192032 185232 Lydney
0.964 NCM 411704 396724 North Camp
0.963 MLW 289204 278618 Marlow
0.962 PAR 197670 190168 Par
0.960 YEO 17128 16450 Yeoford
0.959 CBN 280452 269034 Camborne
0.958 CPM» 1895980 1815922 Chippenham
0.956 SML 64512 61696 Sea Mills
0.956 SAN 203142 194276 Sandown
0.955 TRU 1257040 1201010 Truro
0.953 NQY▸ 100208 95478 Newquay
0.952 YVP 136644 130020 Yeovil Pen Mill
0.952 SOB 237168 225900 Southbourne
0.951 POO 1236048 1174922 Poole
0.951 HNA 175632 167106 Hinton Admiral
0.951 FMT 213840 203468 Falmouth Town
0.950 MDN 21670 20582 Maiden Newton
0.949 CUM 63210 59958 Culham
0.946 DWL 556796 526736 Dawlish
0.944 RDA▸ 105610 99732 Redland
0.944 NUT 82810 78190 Nutbourne
0.944 CAU 2094 1976 Causeland
0.937 LOO 124914 117014 Looe
0.936 MTP 130560 122146 Montpelier
0.929 HYL 87948 81732 Hayle
0.919 UPW 47936 44042 Upwey
0.915 PYN 266580 243802 Penryn
0.914 THO 3144 2874 Thornford
0.913 COP 13476 12304 Copplestone
0.893 IVY 59374 53020 Ivybridge
0.884 SCR 1904 1684 St.Columb Road
0.864 LUX 2170 1874 Luxulyan
0.861 BDN 50954 43846 Brading
0.856 PRW 35646 30530 Perranwell
0.848 FAL 137296 116478 Falmouth Docks
0.845 DMH» 19514 16494 Dilton Marsh
0.835 BCS 1696402 1416600 Bicester North
0.834 CNO 2334 1946 Chetnole
0.833 UMB 37608 31324 Umberleigh
0.833 LAP 2704 2252 Lapford
0.829 NTC▸ 2510 2082 Newton St.Cyres
0.826 CBB 231800 191408 Carbis Bay
0.818 HOL 37616 30760 Holton Heath
0.797 SKN 1986 1582 St.Keyne
0.782 BGL 5554 4342 Bugle
0.759 SBF 3926 2980 St.Budeaux Ferry Road
0.747 SDP 1762 1316 Sandplace
0.676 PIL 68 46 Pilning
0.660 DOC 6300 4160 Dockyard
0.659 SAR 11184 7374 St.Andrew's Road
0.521 CPN 192 100 Chapelton
0.501 PMA 1510 756 Portsmouth Arms "South West" defined as stations with postcodes starting TR PL SN TQ EX TA DT SP BS BA» SH RG SL OX DO BH GL WR HR▸ GU PO for this initial exercise My full time series at http://www.wellho.net/data/rstats2016.xyz ; needs checking and will be short of the more recently opened stations. |
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« Last Edit: December 06, 2016, 11:31:25 by grahame »
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Coffee Shop Admin, Acting Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, Option 24/7 Melksham Rep
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grahame
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2016, 11:38:38 » |
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« Last Edit: December 06, 2016, 11:49:06 by grahame »
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Coffee Shop Admin, Acting Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, Option 24/7 Melksham Rep
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stuving
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2016, 11:48:58 » |
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... though the year on year ratio figures for the latest year all seem to be 100%. |
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grahame
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2016, 11:53:03 » |
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... though the year on year ratio figures for the latest year all seem to be 100%. Fixed - thanks. Always an interesting exercise getting this stuff updated quickly when the data's released! |
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Coffee Shop Admin, Acting Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, Option 24/7 Melksham Rep
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Adelante_CCT
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2016, 12:51:28 » |
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Looks like richwarwicker has been doing his bit for Coombe Or is it next year's stats that will be extra inflated?  |
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grahame
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2016, 14:29:36 » |
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And here are the usual culprits:
12 Shippea Hill
38 Reddish South
46 Pilning
48 Coombe
68 Barry Links
74 Denton
88 Stanlow & Thornton
98 Tees-Side Airport
100 Chapelton
116 Clifton
132 Sugar Loaf
134 Buckenham
138 Breich
162 Havenhouse
168 Golf Street
170 Kildonan
200 Kirton Lindsey
286 Thorpe Culvert
294 Scotscalder
296 Elton & Orston
296 Acklington
I expect to see several of those grow out of the list in the forseaable future. There are other which I'm sure wouldn't appear under a more useful service plan should that be able to be justified.
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Coffee Shop Admin, Acting Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, Option 24/7 Melksham Rep
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Noggin
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« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2016, 10:38:02 » |
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Amazing stats, a credit to the industry that it is coping with such growth.
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JayMac
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« Reply #12 on: December 07, 2016, 10:52:32 » |
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Coping? I wouldn't go that far!  |
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"Build a man a fire and he'll be warm for the rest of the day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life."
- Sir Terry Pratchett.
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PhilWakely
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« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2016, 13:54:22 » |
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Just as a matter of interest, how exactly are the figures arrived at?
For instance, if a ticket states 'London Stations', or 'London Thameslink', how are these counted?
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John R
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« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2016, 14:21:42 » |
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The methodology is set out in the report that accompanies the figures on the ORR» website. As you've demonstrated by just one example, it's by no means simple, so worth a read if you are interested.
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