Great Western franchise to be broken up?

[whole diary]

[woody]

  and presumably it mandates separate accounting so that costs can be clearly understood.

Absolutely, the bottom line I suspect especially given the big fall in passenger numbers now (seen on internal staff documents) since 2015/16 on GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) in the south west peninsula is that the government really wants the costs of running what is an increasingly monolithic and inefficient GWR to be much more transparent.

I've got the latest passenger figures and there hasn't been a big fall in passenger numbers in Devon & Cornwall since 2015/16.  In 2015/16 itself, there was what looked like a big fall on the Cornish main line, the Newquay line and to an extent also the St Ives line.  As you can imagine, we were very concerned about this and GWR investigated what had happened.  It turned out to be the result of an unusual Orcats split which washed out of the system in Period 2 this year (May) and the apparent falls of 15/16 have been reversed.    

In terms of the branch lines, Exmouth, Gunnislake, Looe and Newquay have all had their best years yet (our records go back to 2001) with slight fall backs on Falmouth and Barnstaple and a bit bigger on St Ives, that mainly as a result of the St Erth fire in August.

Get out into the real world and stand on a platform at Exeter At David's, Newton Abbot andhttp://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/grayling-plot-to-split-great-western-lines-qzrt8g8pq Plymouth and you will see what I mean about falling passenger numbers in Devon and Cornwall now and why the government has to do something about the situation and quickly.

[RichardB]

  and presumably it mandates separate accounting so that costs can be clearly understood.

Absolutely, the bottom line I suspect especially given the big fall in passenger numbers now (seen on internal staff documents) since 2015/16 on GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) in the south west peninsula is that the government really wants the costs of running what is an increasingly monolithic and inefficient GWR to be much more transparent.

I've got the latest passenger figures and there hasn't been a big fall in passenger numbers in Devon & Cornwall since 2015/16.  In 2015/16 itself, there was what looked like a big fall on the Cornish main line, the Newquay line and to an extent also the St Ives line.  As you can imagine, we were very concerned about this and GWR investigated what had happened.  It turned out to be the result of an unusual Orcats split which washed out of the system in Period 2 this year (May) and the apparent falls of 15/16 have been reversed.    

In terms of the branch lines, Exmouth, Gunnislake, Looe and Newquay have all had their best years yet (our records go back to 2001) with slight fall backs on Falmouth and Barnstaple and a bit bigger on St Ives, that mainly as a result of the St Erth fire in August.

Get out into the real world and stand on a platform at Exeter At David's, Newton Abbot andhttp://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/grayling-plot-to-split-great-western-lines-qzrt8g8pq Plymouth and you will see what I mean about falling passenger numbers in Devon and Cornwall now and why the government has to do something about the situation and quickly.

I live in Plymouth and do a lot of travelling around the two counties (and have for many years) so I'm well up to speed with what is going on in "the real world" as you put it.  What I would say is that the London - far South West trains seem quieter than a year or so ago (one of the reasons behind the current January Sale, for example).  I don't see those figures.  The figures for local services and travel locally within the two counties are healthy, as I have said. 

The mooted franchise idea is nothing to do with increasing passenger numbers in even the medium term.  I think Tim has one of the reasons - to create smaller franchises that will attract more bidders and particularly new entrants.   I went around campaigning for Wessex Trains to be given a chance to run the full intended franchise back in 2003 or so (this would have included the Waterloo - Exeter route.)  I was worried that a larger Great Western franchise would focus on the long distance services, then the London suburban ones and local and branch services would be largely forgotten.  I'm pleased to say that my fears were unfounded and the Devon & Cornwall branch lines and other local services have generally done very well under FGW^▸ (First Great Western)/GWR, particularly given the hand dealt them by the 2006 franchise Service Level Commitment.  We have big improvements coming across the two counties in and by December 2018 so I'd need a lot of persuading that splitting our services out of the bigger franchise would lead to a better result for passengers.

Richard Burningham
Devon & Cornwall Rail Partnership

[Tim]

  and presumably it mandates separate accounting so that costs can be clearly understood.

Absolutely, the bottom line I suspect especially given the big fall in passenger numbers now (seen on internal staff documents) since 2015/16 on GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) in the south west peninsula is that the government really wants the costs of running what is an increasingly monolithic and inefficient GWR to be much more transparent.

But the Devon/Cornwall franchise will never show a profit - why would the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) want another franchise on its books that needs taxpayer support - when while combined with GWR it can show a profit?

but that's just an accountancy issue.  It makes no overall difference to the public purse if they have one big franchise breaking even or two small franchises one making a loss which is cancelled out by the other making a profit.

[edit below]

Having thought further. It is an perhaps not JUST an accountancy issue.  It is a political issue too and at the whim of politicians.  We have precedence for a loss making franchise being merged with a profitable franchise in the past (ie when the current FGW^▸ (First Great Western) was set up) but also examples of the opposite happening (ie TPE^▸ (Trans Pennine Express) being split off to allow it to be a profitable stand-alone operation).  So it is not clear to me which may the politicians favour moving in

[ChrisB]

Hmmm.

If there were profit-making franchises, breaking-even franchises and just one franchise needing taxpayers subsidy (large, but overall no subsidy needed), which would be getting most coverage

[Tim]

Hmmm.

If there were profit-making franchises, breaking-even franchises and just one franchise needing taxpayers subsidy (large, but overall no subsidy needed), which would be getting most coverage

see my edit above for later thoughts.

To answer your question with another question.  The politically ideal structure might depend on whether the government wants to shine a light on the loss making routes or not.  If not then bury the loss in a bigger franchise.  But if the Government is minded to deal with the loss (either by investment or cuts - I genuinely think that it could be either of those things) then step one might be to highlight the losses so that they can be seen as a problem to which the Government can offer a solution.

[woody]

  and presumably it mandates separate accounting so that costs can be clearly understood.

Absolutely, the bottom line I suspect especially given the big fall in passenger numbers now (seen on internal staff documents) since 2015/16 on GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) in the south west peninsula is that the government really wants the costs of running what is an increasingly monolithic and inefficient GWR to be much more transparent.

I've got the latest passenger figures and there hasn't been a big fall in passenger numbers in Devon & Cornwall since 2015/16.  In 2015/16 itself, there was what looked like a big fall on the Cornish main line, the Newquay line and to an extent also the St Ives line.  As you can imagine, we were very concerned about this and GWR investigated what had happened.  It turned out to be the result of an unusual Orcats split which washed out of the system in Period 2 this year (May) and the apparent falls of 15/16 have been reversed.    

In terms of the branch lines, Exmouth, Gunnislake, Looe and Newquay have all had their best years yet (our records go back to 2001) with slight fall backs on Falmouth and Barnstaple and a bit bigger on St Ives, that mainly as a result of the St Erth fire in August.

Well there are "statistics,damn statistics and lies". I have been a near 24/7 rail user and close observer of the rail scene particularly between Plymouth and Exeter for many years and have come to know a lot of people on Devon's railways as a result. So I repeat get out from behind your computer screen and cosy meetings and simply stand on Exeter St David's station for a few days and observe the real world and you will see what I mean. HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s that were very busy just a few years are now loading much lighter. It no wonder XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) are withdrawing from Torbay with them running virtually empty between Paignton and Newton Abbot for most of the day and year as do GWR's Paddington/Torbay services. If you don't believe me simply stand on Newton Abbot station for a day and see for yourself. But its not just Torbay. I was on the 1306 Paddington to Plymouth (1520 ex Exeter St David's) last week and it had less than 10 people on it by the time it arrived in Plymouth.  You may well be see "doctored" GWR statistics on a computer scheme but I see the real railway world through real eyes in real time almost every day  since I retired a few years ago. So I stand by what I say. The many GWR staff I have come to know have also made the same comments to me about how very unusually quiet the railways are now in Devon and Cornwall even for the time of year. You may be well meaning but you are simply part of a  system that has left the far south west high and dry railway investment wise compared to elsewhere in the country in recent decades  as vast sums of taxpayers money that should of gone into the railways have instead been used to prop up John Majors  dysfunctional, fragmented and deeply inefficient rail privatisation for political ends. End off.

[chrisr_75]

I have been a near 24/7 rail user

That is an awful lot of time to spend on the rail system...

[woody]

I have been a near 24/7 rail user

That is an awful lot of time to spend on the rail system...
[/quoteAs I said I xknow people professional and otherwise on the railway. So I simply keep my eyes and ears open when I anaylyse things and being primarily interested in the business and technical aspects of Railways this enables me to cut through the spin and hype which the public is fed. That's all. Nothing personal meant.

[grahame]

I've got the latest passenger figures and there hasn't been a big fall in passenger numbers in Devon & Cornwall since 2015/16.

HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s that were very busy just a few years are now loading much lighter.

Hmmm ... we live in a changing world.   Passenger numbers have escalated in recent years, but that's not uniform across stations, times of day, journeys made or trains used.  And as the pattern changes, so the required train pattern changes, and when a train pattern changes it can have knock on effects on other train pattern changes too.

Mention made of quieter occasional HSTs and Voyagers to Paignton.  Where in the past London journeys (say) were main on the "Devon Express" because there was no practical choice, today there's much more traffic on the route - but also a choice between clock face trains all through the day with a connection.   Have those clock face trains, where the train can fit to people's days rather than having to fit the day around the only train, abstracted traffic from the "occasionals" to the extent that Woody sees a train that was once busy now just a shadow of itself?

[4064ReadingAbbey]

  and presumably it mandates separate accounting so that costs can be clearly understood.

Absolutely, the bottom line I suspect especially given the big fall in passenger numbers now (seen on internal staff documents) since 2015/16 on GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) in the south west peninsula is that the government really wants the costs of running what is an increasingly monolithic and inefficient GWR to be much more transparent.

But the Devon/Cornwall franchise will never show a profit - why would the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) want another franchise on its books that needs taxpayer support - when while combined with GWR it can show a profit?

but that's just an accountancy issue.  It makes no overall difference to the public purse if they have one big franchise breaking even or two small franchises one making a loss which is cancelled out by the other making a profit.

[edit below]

Having thought further. It is an perhaps not JUST an accountancy issue.  It is a political issue too and at the whim of politicians.  We have precedence for a loss making franchise being merged with a profitable franchise in the past (ie when the current FGW^▸ (First Great Western) was set up) but also examples of the opposite happening (ie TPE^▸ (Trans Pennine Express) being split off to allow it to be a profitable stand-alone operation).  So it is not clear to me which may the politicians favour moving in

I would think that these rumours of the GW^▸ (Great Western) franchise being split are based on a resurfacing of the aims of the Peninsular Rail Task Force (https://peninsularailtaskforce.co.uk) which wrote to Network Rail in 2013. A copy of the letter is to be found at http://archive.nr.co.uk/browse%20documents/market%20studies/freight%20market%20study%20consultation%20%20responses/t/the%20peninsula%20rail%20task%20force.pdf.


From the 'job description' of the Penisular Rail Task Force.

government will explore the case for establishing a new dedicated Devon and Cornwall franchise for the south-west of England, bringing together parts of the current Great Western and south-west Trains franchises into a coherent whole to support better timetabling and provision of rail services to and within the south-west, not simply focused on journeys to London. Alongside this, government would like to encourage local government in the region to come together to form Rail south-west, with the long term aim of devolving the franchise to local decision makers (subject to the development of satisfactory capability to let and manage such contracts)
And Terms of reference of the Task Force 3 Point Plan Action Group established by the Peninsular Task Force.

Further

It will take account of all relevant factors including...the DfT passenger franchising programme and plans for decentralisation of decision-making on rail service provision to local and regional bodies

(Slightly edited to fit!)

So, I suspect that all that is happening is that these discussions are continuing and somebody has added 2 and 2 and made 5.
 

[John R]

Grayling has form in breaking up organisations in the hope that it will bring an improvement.  I'm thinking of the disastrous splitting of the Probation Service which even the government, barely two years on, has acknowledged has been a failure. 

[Western Pathfinder]

Meddling for meddlings sake by the looks of things.?.

[a-driver]

By breaking up the franchise into something smaller would surely increase the operating cost, afterall, each franchise will have its own Managing Director and senior management team for starters?

[LiskeardRich]

Woody, I wonder if an increased competition from natex and megabus are hitting the London to southwest figures?
There is greater frequency on the coaches overall albeit lesser capacity, however Plymouth to London return is easily achieved by coach for £20 return or less. I'd (and have) quite happily sit on a coach for 5 1/2 hours instead of the train for 4 hours for the saving.
To arrive in London from Plymouth before 0900 the train wants £267, megabus on 4 weeks today, depart Plymouth at 0100 arriving at Victoria at 0725  is £7 single. A return departure from Victoria at 1800 arriving Plymouth 2345 is £8,
£15 return or £267 return isn't a hard choice for most.

[Tim]

Grayling has form in breaking up organisations in the hope that it will bring an improvement.  I'm thinking of the disastrous splitting of the Probation Service which even the government, barely two years on, has acknowledged has been a failure. 

Grayling is an ideologue.  I don't mean that he is extreme or anything (or that I necessary disagree with him very much), but he is one of those politicians of the Thatcher mould who see markets as good wherever possible as a matter of  principle.