Easter 2017 travel plans

[whole diary]

[rower40]

What a difference a day makes...
As I write this (on Good Friday, for those reading later without ready access to a calendar) I'm on the 1801 from Derby to St Pancras.  Not QUITE empty, but not far off.  One of the first class coaches has just one passenger in it.
Maybe bank holidays should be staggered?  Surnames A-F take Tues to Fri off; H-N take Thurs to Sun; O-U have the 'normal' 4 days from Fri to Mon, and V-Z and numericals can take Mon-Thurs of the next week off.

[PhilWakely]

Perhaps one of the experts can advise exactly how much additional capacity will be provided by the new long distance trains and how will it mitigate this annual farce?

There may well be additional capacity, but as Northcote Parkinson would probably tell you....... "Traffic expands to fill the space available" 

[a-driver]

As a comparator I see that the M4 was completely closed for a period this afternoon between Bath and Chippenham and is still only partially open. Congestion on various stretches of the M5 and A303 as well.

The M4 was closed due to an emergency - a tanker in flames - I'm not sure how that comparison is particularly valid in the context of Easter being a somewhat more foreseeable event for the railways to plan for?

You can formulate the best plan in the world but, as every operator will tell you, no one has the rolling stock available to cope with the demand. The DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) ensures that each operator has barely enough stock to cope with a normal weekday. This is why the picture is the same across the country. Look at Virgin West Coast.  Recently upgraded but when it comes to rolling stock, there's still no spare capacity.

If that's the situation, it's not ideal but the TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company)'s have to manage it and the number of tickets they sell.

I do not see GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) complaining about the huge amounts of additional revenue they are happy to trouser by selling virtually unlimited numbers of tickets for trains which they know damn well will be obscenely overcrowded - in fact it makes perfect sense for them to do that rather than providing additional trains - why should they run two trains which are merely full to capacity when they can cram all those people onto one train in cattle truck conditions? - never mind the people who can't reach the toilets (being used as standing space today judging by reports), have panic attacks, stand for hours on end etc etc.

Once the train company sells all the seats on a train they are not permitted to stop selling tickets.  There is nothing they can do other than advise which trains are likely to be extremely busy.
There is no additional capacity out of London Paddington and there are no additional HST^▸ (High Speed Train) sets available.  After planned maintenance they is, I think, 49 sets available for traffic, 49 are booked to be used.  The DfT doesn't want spare trains sitting around, they don't earn revenue.

Ultimately, GWR are accountable for the service, they bid for the franchise, they have to manage it. If that means limiting ticket numbers in order that people can travel in something approaching humane conditions, then they need to grow a pair and do so...................although as I said they won't, because there is a perverse financial incentive for them not to do so.

GWR are not ultimately accountable for the service.  The DfT are.  The DfT outlines want it wants the franchisee to do, the DfT micromanages each franchise.  You could make a franchise bid that drastically increases capacity but if that's not what the DfT wants you won't be awarded the franchise.  It all comes down to the balance sheet, not the needs of the passenger.  This is why it doesn't matter who runs a franchise.  If First wasn't running the franchise the DfT would find another company who would run it in the same way. 

Perhaps one of the experts can advise exactly how much additional capacity will be provided by the new long distance trains and how will it mitigate this annual farce?

In my opinion, the additional capacity on the long distance services will barely be noticeable.  There certainly isn't any room for growth - look at CrossCountry and Virgin West Coast.  It's fleet replacement was managed in the same way. 
The IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train) is not an improvement on the HST, it's a cattle train built as cheaply as possible with the main aim of cramming in as many passengers as possible and its been forced on the train operators by the DfT.  There failings will become even more apparent come the height of Summer.

[ChrisB]

There currently is no extra stock, for Easter or any other time.

There asditional capacities are discussed in the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) thread, but its like the roads I suspect - add capacity & it quickly creates the demand to fill it.

Can you imagine the howls of protest - probably from you too - if GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) were to throttle demand as you suggest by using the only tool in their cupboard - remove all Advance fares, and if that doesn't work, off-peak fares too. How else do you suggest they do it? (Serious question)

The only way would be to pay higher fares/taxes all year round in order for TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) to have them either running around empty or stored doing nothing.

[didcotdean]

As a comparator I see that the M4 was completely closed for a period this afternoon between Bath and Chippenham and is still only partially open. Congestion on various stretches of the M5 and A303 as well.

The M4 was closed due to an emergency - a tanker in flames - I'm not sure how that comparison is particularly valid in the context of Easter being a somewhat more foreseeable event for the railways to plan for?

Just that people on the road were having a hard time too. Nothing more profound than that I'm afraid.

[TaplowGreen]

There currently is no extra stock, for Easter or any other time.

There asditional capacities are discussed in the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) thread, but its like the roads I suspect - add capacity & it quickly creates the demand to fill it.

Can you imagine the howls of protest - probably from you too - if GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) were to throttle demand as you suggest by using the only tool in their cupboard - remove all Advance fares, and if that doesn't work, off-peak fares too. How else do you suggest they do it? (Serious question)

The only way would be to pay higher fares/taxes all year round in order for TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) to have them either running around empty or stored doing nothing.

If there's no extra stock for Easter or "any other time" (your phrase), how are entire "spare" trains found for PR^▸ (Public Relations) exercises like services from Okehampton to Paddington?

In answer to your question about "throttling demand" it's quite simple - you limit the number of ticket sales &  people boarding a train to a sensible and safe limit, on H & S grounds if necessary, and before you refer me to the oft quoted guff about overcrowding not being dangerous, that refers solely to the structural integrity of the train, not the other obvious dangers & discomforts which anyone with half a brain cell can identify.

 I would be interested in knowing if Hopwood or any of his cronies have been banging on the DfTs^» (Department for Transport - about) door demanding to be allowed to source extra capacity? No? What a surprise.

If it's true that the DfT are responsible for everything and that GWR are merely the poor, oppressed franchisee doing their bidding with no influence , it makes their "Building a Greater West" campaign even more dishonest.

[broadgage]

Whilst it is true that GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) or other TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) can not stop selling tickets when it is known or suspected that the train will be full, what they CAN do  is restrict or even eliminate sales of discounted advance tickets.

I am not the only one to have suggested this. I thought that the purpose of train specific discounted tickets was to fill up under utilised trains and not to make overcrowded trains even worse.

[ChrisB]

There currently is no extra stock, for Easter or any other time.

There asditional capacities are discussed in the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) thread, but its like the roads I suspect - add capacity & it quickly creates the demand to fill it.

Can you imagine the howls of protest - probably from you too - if GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) were to throttle demand as you suggest by using the only tool in their cupboard - remove all Advance fares, and if that doesn't work, off-peak fares too. How else do you suggest they do it? (Serious question)

The only way would be to pay higher fares/taxes all year round in order for TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) to have them either running around empty or stored doing nothing.

If there's no extra stock for Easter or "any other time" (your phrase), how are entire "spare" trains found for PR^▸ (Public Relations) exercises like services from Okehampton to Paddington?

In answer to your question about "throttling demand" it's quite simple - you limit the number of ticket sales &  people boarding a train to a sensible and safe limit, on H & S grounds if necessary, and before you refer me to the oft quoted guff about overcrowding not being dangerous, that refers solely to the structural integrity of the train, not the other obvious dangers & discomforts which anyone with half a brain cell can identify.

 I would be interested in knowing if Hopwood or any of his cronies have been banging on the DfTs^» (Department for Transport - about) door demanding to be allowed to source extra capacity? No? What a surprise.

If it's true that the DfT are responsible for everything and that GWR are merely the poor, oppressed franchisee doing their bidding with no influence , it makes their "Building a Greater West" campaign even more dishonest.

Tosh, I'm sorry.

Would you contract for more stock knowing there's little use (no pointvin running empty trains) aound most of the time? Bear in mind there are no additional peak time slots where more money might be made. No, so you can understand their reluctance.

And occasionally, yes they have banged on the DfTs door when stick has become available. Where did they get the SWT^▸ (South West Trains) stock they've borrowed, for example? That would have needed DfT approval.

That PR example was on a Sunday when they can find extra sets - but if you ran these in Easter Sunday, what extra demand do you think there might be? They weren't available on Thursday. Were any extras run this morning?

[IndustryInsider]

Before anyone gets too hysterical, any extras that GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) might have wanted to run this morning (had crew and stock been available) would have been stymied by the engineering block from Hayes to Paddington over this Easter.  Only two tracks being available, whilst, amongst other things, platform extension works are taking place.

[phile]

There currently is no extra stock, for Easter or any other time.

There asditional capacities are discussed in the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) thread, but its like the roads I suspect - add capacity & it quickly creates the demand to fill it.

Can you imagine the howls of protest - probably from you too - if GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) were to throttle demand as you suggest by using the only tool in their cupboard - remove all Advance fares, and if that doesn't work, off-peak fares too. How else do you suggest they do it? (Serious question)

The only way would be to pay higher fares/taxes all year round in order for TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) to have them either running around empty or stored doing nothing.

If there's no extra stock for Easter or "any other time" (your phrase), how are entire "spare" trains found for PR^▸ (Public Relations) exercises like services from Okehampton to Paddington?

In answer to your question about "throttling demand" it's quite simple - you limit the number of ticket sales &  people boarding a train to a sensible and safe limit, on H & S grounds if necessary, and before you refer me to the oft quoted guff about overcrowding not being dangerous, that refers solely to the structural integrity of the train, not the other obvious dangers & discomforts which anyone with half a brain cell can identify.

 I would be interested in knowing if Hopwood or any of his cronies have been banging on the DfTs^» (Department for Transport - about) door demanding to be allowed to source extra capacity? No? What a surprise.

If it's true that the DfT are responsible for everything and that GWR are merely the poor, oppressed franchisee doing their bidding with no influence , it makes their "Building a Greater West" campaign even more dishonest.

The Okehampton to Paddington would have been catered for through less HST^▸ (High Speed Train) Diagrams in service on a Saturday

[TaplowGreen]

There currently is no extra stock, for Easter or any other time.

There asditional capacities are discussed in the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) thread, but its like the roads I suspect - add capacity & it quickly creates the demand to fill it.

Can you imagine the howls of protest - probably from you too - if GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) were to throttle demand as you suggest by using the only tool in their cupboard - remove all Advance fares, and if that doesn't work, off-peak fares too. How else do you suggest they do it? (Serious question)

The only way would be to pay higher fares/taxes all year round in order for TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) to have them either running around empty or stored doing nothing.

If there's no extra stock for Easter or "any other time" (your phrase), how are entire "spare" trains found for PR^▸ (Public Relations) exercises like services from Okehampton to Paddington?

In answer to your question about "throttling demand" it's quite simple - you limit the number of ticket sales &  people boarding a train to a sensible and safe limit, on H & S grounds if necessary, and before you refer me to the oft quoted guff about overcrowding not being dangerous, that refers solely to the structural integrity of the train, not the other obvious dangers & discomforts which anyone with half a brain cell can identify.

 I would be interested in knowing if Hopwood or any of his cronies have been banging on the DfTs^» (Department for Transport - about) door demanding to be allowed to source extra capacity? No? What a surprise.

If it's true that the DfT are responsible for everything and that GWR are merely the poor, oppressed franchisee doing their bidding with no influence , it makes their "Building a Greater West" campaign even more dishonest.

Tosh, I'm sorry.

Would you contract for more stock knowing there's little use (no pointvin running empty trains) aound most of the time? Bear in mind there are no additional peak time slots where more money might be made. No, so you can understand their reluctance.

And occasionally, yes they have banged on the DfTs door when stick has become available. Where did they get the SWT^▸ (South West Trains) stock they've borrowed, for example? That would have needed DfT approval.

That PR example was on a Sunday when they can find extra sets - but if you ran these in Easter Sunday, what extra demand do you think there might be? They weren't available on Thursday. Were any extras run this morning?

Who is Tosh, and why are you apologising to him? 

Okehampton - Paddington was a Saturday, not a Sunday, and I was under the impression from your earlier assertion that there was "no stock for Easter or any other time" - when you emphasised "any other time" I assumed that was what you meant.

You state that there is no sense in FGW^▸ (First Great Western) contracting for more stock as they would be running around empty, and yet a few minutes before you were talking about demand expanding quickly to fill capacity.

It seems that you largely agree with me that FGW/GWR not working particularly hard to obtain more long distance stock is driven as much by the financial incentive and margin that running massively overcrowded trains provides them with than anything else - after all, why run two merely "full" trains, when you can cram them all on one and collect the same amount of money?

Happy Easter all, hope your eggs didn't get crushed! 

[ChrisB]

"no extra trains"....don't misquote me.

Which means that GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) are unable to contract for stock which doesn't exist. Therefore they would be contracting for new build. With the length of franchise they currently have, any new stock wouldn't/couldn't be delivered before the end of franchise.

So, yes, absolute Tosh, TG.

[phile]

"no extra trains"....don't misquote me.

Which means that GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) are unable to contract for stock which doesn't exist. Therefore they would be contracting for new build. With the length of franchise they currently have, any new stock wouldn't/couldn't be delivered before the end of franchise.

So, yes, absolute Tosh, TG.

That is a problem, a TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) (ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC))) locked into a 15 year contract since 2003 has seen a passenger growth of 75%.  Franchises prevent TOCs being able to adapt to changing circumstances.

[ChrisB]

Couldn't agree more.

Chiltern's 20 year franchise allowed them to invest, but the plan was there from day 1. A new Welsh franchise from next year of that length could possibly include new stock.

[eightf48544]

Be interesting to see how First Group copes with scrapping a lot of SWT^▸ (South West Trains) stock and buying new.

Will they end up with more actual trains (i.e. units), coaches (longer trains)  or just more capacity (pack em in e.g. 345 style instead of 387 style).

Is there a measure of seats per hour available on a particular route or at a particular station.

Seat miles per hour at a particular station would be an interesting measure as for some trains in the peak it could be Zero i.e arrives already full.