On my radar / "watch list" are ...
Dilton Marsh - "decide on your market"
Early morning Sunday train from Warminster
Frome inbound / outbound commuters (and other gaps?)
Frome to Taunton
Before I continue, I should point out that I've no idea what the established travel patterns in the area are, but:
I tend to think that in general, where there is a choice of routes and not enough resources (track capacity, rolling stock etc.) to serve them all then it is best to choose the ones that are most-direct. With an indirect route, rail will not be time-competitive against road travel so the passengers you would get on an indirect route are more-likely to be ones with no choice of mode, and hence more-likely to grudgingly accept the need to change train.
Your logic is not flawed, but other factors come in too which tend to drown some of its elements.
1. Unlike Wales and Cornwall
, Somerset and Wiltshire haven't had lots of
EU» roadbuilding grants chucked at them, so journeys of a short distance as the crow flies can take silly-long on the road. We're about 27 miles from Bristol Airport. We allow an hour to drive at a very quiet time of day, 90 minutes at busy times
2. For cities, it's not all about car driving - it's about parking the darned thing when you get there too, so a circuitous route to a city, even if relatively slow, may not be all bad.
3. There are well established flows - Frome to Bath and Bristol for example - which is where we are today, and this isn't about chucking users off one of today's flows because something else may be more logical for tomorrow.
For example, instead of the Gloucester/Worcester-Bristol trains carrying on to Bath-Westbury-Weymouth I think they should go to Weston-Super-Mare/Taunton (replacing the Cardiff-Taunton service along with Swansea-Bristol Electrostars). I hope that sounds logical to others and my logic isn't flawed...
Traffic through Bristol may not be all that huge, with linkage perhaps being more considerate of the stock types and run lengths that the numbers. I understand that one of the bidders against First at the last refranchise spent some time watching trains to see what through traffic was like ... urban myth says they got chucked off the station for acting suspiciously.
For the TransWilts, Chippenham to Dilton Marsh and Frome both look reasonably direct BUT Bristol/Bath to Frome/Bruton is not so I'd suggest 2tph Bristol-Bath-Westbury-Salisbury-Southampton (one semi-fast (Cardiff-Portsmouth) and one slower, serving Dilton Marsh and perhaps going via Chandlers Ford and Eastleigh) and Swindon-Melksham-Westbury-Frome-Weymouth/Taunton.
Thank you and no thank you. Swindon and Chippenham to Frome is important, as is Bristol / Bath to Frome and beyond; best is an hourly Cardiff -> Portsmouth, an hourly Bristol to Frome with most / ideally all on to Yeovil and Weymouth, and an hourly Swindon - Romsey via Southampton Airport. 2 way, cross platform connection between the latter trains at Westbury please. I know it looks like 2 arcs touching each other rather than a neat cross, but much ain't bust at the moment, so don't fix it ... and you have an awful lot of Chippenham / Swindon to Salisbury / Southampton / Airport traffic which will be encouraged by the direct train - no need to duplicate the route of the hourly express in an hourly local - bit of a waste of though prospects!
If that last one went to Taunton, might it also open up the possibility to serve a new station or two between Castle Cary and Taunton? Weymouth is a difficult one; with Bristol being such an important place the through link is presumably important, but they are quite a way apart for a stopping service* and between Bath and Castle Cary it is far from direct.
Westbury - Frome - Cary - Taunton should be a different services when the class 802 timetable change has happened; Go-op may see it as part of their extension plans for their trains Swindon to Westbury, but Chippenham - Taunton isn't crying out for a direct service via Trowbridge, even though it's probably to loose the direct trains via Bristol.
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