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Author Topic: Great Western Main Line electrification - ongoing discussion  (Read 283326 times)
Red Squirrel
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« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2017, 09:33:26 »

That was meant to be speculation not prediction. As for costs, I was thinking that costs would be lower not only due to electric traction but mainly due to AVs (Autonomous (self driving) Vehicle) not being privately owned. So the costs of maintenance, insurance, tax and so on would be born by many people for each vehicle, in a similar way to a car club. Costs per mile might be higher but overall cost of usage would be lower because you'd only be paying for the vehicle while actually using it, which obviously is a tiny minority of its life. Of course this depends on breaking the personal ownership habit, which might not happen.

So you are assuming car clubs will suddenly become more popular.  That is a major cultural change. 


Cultural change is happening! 

The biggest problem with Car Clubs is the uncertainty and inconvenience - will I be able to reserve the car I need, when I need it, within walking distance of where I am? CAVs get around this by delivering the car you need to your door when you need it. The old 'ownership' model is fading fast, with more and more people opting to lease a private car. Meanwhile firms like VW are rebranding themselves as 'mobility providers', whose product is a ride, not a car.

All this must have implications for public transport, perhaps particularly in rural areas. How does this disruptive technology work alongside rail? I'm not sure many people are thinking about that yet!
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« Reply #16 on: July 23, 2017, 10:40:49 »

In answer to your question Red Squirrel I have driven Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV (Battery electric vehicle)) cars on a track and in traffic in fact my experience of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) dates back to the 1970s however that was a Unigate GTI and so not all that revelant to this discussion.                                             (Milk Float ) Grin

Edit: VickiS - Clarifying Acronym
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« Reply #17 on: July 23, 2017, 11:38:31 »

In answer to your question Red Squirrel I have driven BEV (Battery electric vehicle) cars on a track and in traffic in fact my experience of BEV dates back to the 1970s however that was a Unigate GTI and so not all that revelant to this discussion.                                             (Milk Float ) Grin

I realise we have wandered off-topic here...

I am still intrigued as to which characteristics of fuel cell power make it preferable to battery power, given that in essence it's just another way of producing a direct current. Regenerative braking aside, the actual driving characteristics are similar, aren't they? So does it come down to the convenience of being able to top up with hydrogen in a few minutes - there's almost certainly a filling station within 300km of where you live Wink - as opposed to charging overnight at home?

Edit: Off-topic, not off-tropic. And can I just say that my iPad's pathetic attempts at second-guessing what I actually wanted to type are currently one of the biggest threats to my mental health?
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 10:42:18 by Red Squirrel » Logged

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« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2017, 20:06:46 »

HLOS (High Level Output Specification) is only about CP6 (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024), 2020-2024, and nothing else. The electrification pencilled in for CP6, and in theory not even started in design work, has been dropped. I don't see that as a statement about CP7 and later, not either way - no-one would be impressed by a promise of maybe for after 2024, so there would be no point making one.

Actually, we'll have to wait and see what "HLOS" means now. As Rhygdaled has pointed out elsewhere, there is going to be a new system for commissioning infrastructure projects.

Last week's mini-HLOS said (of itself): "The Statement does not commit to infrastructure enhancements. These are expected to be dealt with separately." The announcement of the HLOS was a bit more specific, saying:
Quote
The HLOS is therefore focussed on the operation, maintenance and renewal of the existing railway — the areas of activity that will deliver a more reliable railway for passengers. The government is already delivering significant enhancements to the railway, including High Speed 2 and Crossrail and it expects to continue to invest in the enhancement to the wider rail network in the next control period. In light of the findings of the Bowe Review, which emphasised the need to enable better planning, cost control and alignment with the needs of users of the railway, government will take forward the funding of these enhancements separately. The government is developing a new process for delivering enhancements and intends to publish more information on this in the autumn.

So far they have promised a new SoFA after reviewing the cost of renewals etc., in October. What Colette Bowe actually called for was this:
Quote
6.22 These highly complex schemes, which in planning and delivery may extend well beyond the duration of a control period, would in my view benefit from focused and bespoke governance, such as with Thameslink and Crossrail. The Department should consider whether major route enhancement schemes (in particular) should continue to be tied to the periodic review cycle or whether they should be handled under bespoke arrangements such as those in place for Crossrail and Thameslink. This would provide Ministers with opportunities to decide how to progress schemes as deliverability and affordability is progressively assured, rather than artificially accelerating schemes to meet the requirements of the access charge review and would incentivise better early planning and programme oversight.
6.23 It is extremely important to note, however, that medium-term funding certainty for Network Rail, and by implication the supply chain, is both welcome and necessary, as reflected in EU» (European Union - about) and domestic legislation. In other words, I do not recommend replacing the periodic review system for operations and maintenance and renewals expenditure.

Or, put another way, big projects should not be artificially forced into the 5-year CP framework. But as to small projects, she says nothing, and the deferred bits of GW (Great Western) electrification are small in her terms. And she does not say the HLOS as such (i.e. for DfT» (Department for Transport - about) to specify what they want done in the simplest user-oriented terms, and let NR» (Network Rail - home page) convert that into the technical requirement and cost it) should be abandoned. She does say DfT have to be told more about how NR do that.

So we'll have to wait and see what the Grayling come up with. It will be some time before he even has to field questions on what he's up to from MPs (Member of Parliament).
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« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2017, 20:21:34 »

My money is on projects being removed from Network Rail (NR» (Network Rail - home page)) control/influence...... Wink

Edit: VickiS - Clarifying Acronym
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« Reply #20 on: July 23, 2017, 21:05:13 »

So who would put them forward if not Network Rail (NR» (Network Rail - home page))

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« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2017, 21:15:23 »

So who would put them forward if not NR» (Network Rail - home page)

And how could the work be coordinated and possessions arranged except through Network Rail (NR)?

It is possible for something like East-West where the work is being done away from the operational railway, but for anything else it would be a nightmare!

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« Reply #22 on: July 24, 2017, 13:55:27 »

That was meant to be speculation not prediction. As for costs, I was thinking that costs would be lower not only due to electric traction but mainly due to AVs (Autonomous (self driving) Vehicle) not being privately owned. So the costs of maintenance, insurance, tax and so on would be born by many people for each vehicle, in a similar way to a car club. Costs per mile might be higher but overall cost of usage would be lower because you'd only be paying for the vehicle while actually using it, which obviously is a tiny minority of its life. Of course this depends on breaking the personal ownership habit, which might not happen.

So you are assuming car clubs will suddenly become more popular.  That is a major cultural change. 
Not necessarily car clubs as such. Could be more like Uber – a hail and ride system. The increasing popularity of car clubs is, as Red Squirrel has said, evidence of such cultural change in progress, as is the decline in driving licences issued to those under ~25. I don't agree with RS that leasing is another change in ownership though, to my mind it's more a change in finances; you still have possession of the leased vehicle on a day to day basis. They key thing is a break in the link between travel and vehicle.

Autonomous HGVs have already been tested on public roads in the USA and I think in Sweden. There are problems to be overcome before they can use urban roads particularly – the steering was found to be crude on tight corners – but they've functioned well on the relatively empty highways there. It's only a matter of time before they can be used everywhere. It might take 20 years but I expect that when the technology is ready, they will take off fast and have an enormous impact on everything from employment to shopping.

Yes but there is a big difference between an AV with someone who could take control if it all went badly and an Autonomous self driving Vehicles (AV) with no on in it.  Again you are assuming a major cultural change.  I would not want to be anywhere near an Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) Autonomous self driving Vehicles (AV) without a real person in it.
Quote
Aren't you assuming stasis in technology?

As for space for more vehicles, I'm certainly not assuming that. It's possible, as I said, that Autonomous self driving Vehicles (AV)s will break the link between driving and owning, which could lead to fewer vehicles with more usage. If that doesn't happen, I don't see anything yet to suggest we'll change the course which has proved so successful* the world over, ie building more roads, bigger junctions, larger car parks, bypasses around ring roads, etc.

*Just in case it's not clear, this is ironic. But Autonomous self driving Vehicles (AV)s are on the way, sometime not terribly far in the future, to a road near you. Impacts awaited.

You may be ironic but I saw an article the other day from some nutter who said that HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) would be unnecessary because of Autonomous self driving Vehicles (AV)s and that it should be replaced with a new motorway was would take up far less space because it would only need two lanes!  (He needs to go and look at Yeadon Way in Blackpool to see what road you can build on the line of a two-track railway!
Not my nutter!

Edit: VickiS - Clarifying Acronyms
« Last Edit: May 21, 2021, 10:44:14 by VickiS » Logged

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« Reply #23 on: July 24, 2017, 14:39:19 »

So who would put them forward if not NR» (Network Rail - home page)?

The DfT» (Department for Transport - about) would be the specifier/procurement agency and consultants and contractors would do the design/delivery and hand it over to Network Rail (NR) for maintenance.  That is basically how delivery works now but with Network Rail (NR) being the specifier/procurement agency (which is the bit that they generally make a mess of, and the government don't like).  Possessions would be agreed with NR as they are now.

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« Reply #24 on: July 24, 2017, 17:59:37 »

So who would put them forward if not NR» (Network Rail - home page)?

The DfT» (Department for Transport - about) would be the specifier/procurement agency and consultants and contractors would do the design/delivery and hand it over to Network Rail (NR) for maintenance.  That is basically how delivery works now but with NR being the specifier/procurement agency (which is the bit that they generally make a mess of, and the government don't like).  Possessions would be agreed with Network Rail (NR) as they are now.

The DfT would be the specifier/procurement agency   And that would be more cost effective  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

and consultants and contractors would do the design/delivery and they are not renowned for finding extras and cost due to over runs  Grin Grin Grin Grin

and hand it over to Network Rail (NR) for maintenance  Network Rail (NR) would want all the drawings, spares, training etc in place before accepting it into service and the DfT will have to accept train delay cost

In actual fact its Network Rail (NR) Projects organisation that needs sorting out, CP4 (Control Period 4 - the five year period between 2009 and 2014) reorg for CP5 (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) made a complete hash,  the Route Project Director should report to the Route Managing Director

Edit: VickiS - Clarifying Acronym
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« Reply #25 on: July 24, 2017, 19:00:13 »

So who would put them forward if not NR» (Network Rail - home page)?

The DfT» (Department for Transport - about) would be the specifier/procurement agency and consultants and contractors would do the design/delivery and hand it over to NR for maintenance.  That is basically how delivery works now but with NR being the specifier/procurement agency (which is the bit that they generally make a mess of, and the government don't like).  Possessions would be agreed with NR as they are now.

The DfT would be the specifier/procurement agency   And that would be more cost effective  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin ;Dl


and consultants and contractors would do the design/delivery and they are not renowned for finding extras and cost due to over runs  Grin Grin Grin Grin

and hand it over to NR for maintenance  NR would want all the drawings, spares, training etc in place before accepting it into service and the DfT will have to accept train delay cost

In actual fact its NR Projects organisation that needs sorting out, CP4 (Control Period 4 - the five year period between 2009 and 2014) reorg for CP5 (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) made a complete hash,  the Route Project Director should report to the Route Managing Director

In reality ET you know that's almost how it works at the moment.  I'm betting on the 'middle man' (i.e. NR) being cut out of the loop.  Wasn't the recent goverment edict that NR should concentrate on maintenance, the actual 'first step'?........ Roll Eyes Tongue
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« Reply #26 on: July 24, 2017, 21:11:00 »

And one of the other campaigners suggested that things/systems that have been around for 100 years need to be replaced with something newer. His suggestion's to scrap all buses and trains, and replace them with things like guided systems - automated or semiautomated, such as you'll see at Heathrow and in parts of Cambridgeshire.  "Nothing that's been around over 100 years should still be in use" was his view;
There's not much in transport that hasn't been around for more than 100 years, except space travel. Even electric cars were around in the late 19th century.

I totally agree with you.  Almost every modern society object / item / facility has routes and development that can be traced back in part for a hundred or more years - and indeed it would be very rare for an invention to be able to be described as "invented on 14th July 1927" ...

I found great comfort and great distress from my discussion with Barry.  Comfort that I'm already doing a bit better than he does at my campaigning, and that he had given me an opportunity to test my own reasoning and advocacy. Distress in that there are campaigners and members of the public around who lack reasoning, lack logic, and refuse to even acknowledge the elephants in the room that need to be addressed to make their solutions have any chance.

It will all be hyperloop - knew I had seen it somewhere:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/this-is-how-hyperloop-one-would-work
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« Reply #27 on: July 24, 2017, 21:46:05 »

So who would put them forward if not Network Rail (NR» (Network Rail - home page))?

The DfT» (Department for Transport - about) would be the specifier/procurement agency and consultants and contractors would do the design/delivery and hand it over to NR for maintenance.  That is basically how delivery works now but with Network Rail (NR) being the specifier/procurement agency (which is the bit that they generally make a mess of, and the government don't like).  Possessions would be agreed with Network Rail (NR) as they are now.

The DfT would be the specifier/procurement agency   And that would be more cost effective  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin ;Dl


and consultants and contractors would do the design/delivery and they are not renowned for finding extras and cost due to over runs  Grin Grin Grin Grin

and hand it over to Network Rail (NR) for maintenance Network Rail (NR) would want all the drawings, spares, training etc in place before accepting it into service and the DfT will have to accept train delay cost

In actual fact its Network Rail (NR) Projects organisation that needs sorting out, CP4 (Control Period 4 - the five year period between 2009 and 2014) reorg for CP5 (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) made a complete hash,  the Route Project Director should report to the Route Managing Director

In reality ET you know that's almost how it works at the moment.  I'm betting on the 'middle man' (i.e. NR) being cut out of the loop.  Wasn't the recent goverment edict that NR should concentrate on maintenance, the actual 'first step'?........ Roll Eyes Tongue

This true .............. I just cannot see the men from the Ministary being more efficent,  I can also see Network Rail (NR) using projects run external to them as leaverage for not doing maintainace as Network Rail (NR) would loose control of the track access, the DfT not wanting contractor costs to run away will run rough shod over Network Raul (NR) maintainace.  The DfT will not like the contractor running late handing back a posssesion becuse NR and the TOC (Train Operating Company) will be after losses; DfT would end up only having a few token high profile projects centred around HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) to ake them look good.

Contractors are warey of PFI so are unlikely o do joint ventures with the Government.

Network Rail's (NR)'s Project set up needs a damn good  Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked It is crazy a well honed setup like Thameslink Program is being dismembered all the lessions learnt, the expirenced teams and people, the process, doc control etc etc all will be gone in a year.

Edit: VickiS - Clarifying Acronyms
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« Reply #28 on: July 24, 2017, 22:10:10 »

I realise we have wandered off-topic here...

I am still intrigued as to which characteristics of fuel cell power make it preferable to battery power, given that in essence it's just another way of producing a direct current. Regenerative braking aside, the actual driving characteristics are similar, aren't they? So does it come down to the convenience of being able to top up with hydrogen in a few minutes - there's almost certainly a filling station within 300km of where you live Wink - as opposed to charging overnight at home?

Actually around 70km from my home, at the Honda factory in Swindon. There are plans for a filling station in Bristol, but one is hardly going to get things moving in a big way. I used to drive a Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)) powered car which took careful planning of my working day to fit in a call close to one of the filling stations, and there were quite a few in Bristol. For the reason of infrastructure, I doubt hydrogen will catch on other than for specialised commercial vehicles. Batteries are improving, and the government has just allocated research funds to help improve them more, and electricity from batteries must surely be the way forward for the private car. Not for trains though, other than on short branch lines. For big fast trains, the future must be 25,000 V AC. Mass transit within cities will eventually be steel wheel on steel rail, with 700 V DC (Direct Current) or thereabouts, with dual voltage tram-trains operating in the medium distance commuter market. That makes the decision to delay the electrification into Bristol and Swansea seem very short sighted, more so than the previous two decisions to delay it.

Charging overnight is a good idea, provided of course that you enjoy off-street parking.I currently do not, and cannot guarantee being able to leave the car outside my house. Nor would I like to have a cable running across the pavement. And if we all exchanged our internal combustion engined cars for electric overnight, we would need 20 new nuclear power stations and/or a couple of million extra wind turbines. But it would be an efficient way to use off-peak electricity, which, given we are all buying LED light bulbs would probably be offered during the daytime.

Hydrogen, as you point out, is not a fuel, but a form of energy storage. It may be the most abundant element in the universe, but not in a free form on Earth in any great quantity. It can be produced by electrolysis of water, which is rather energy intensive. Industrial quantities are often produced by using superheated steam at high pressure to knock the carbon atoms off methane - CH4 + H2O → CO + 3 H2. Unfortunately, that leaves a by-product of carbon monoxide, not nice stuff. That can be burned to provide energy, but you still end up with carbon dioxide, which is what you want to get rid of in the first place. Plus there is the energy needed to produce the hydrogen, likely to be carbon-based unless you live in France.

Which is why I am not placing bets on hydrogen as a fuel for trains in this millennium. Overhead line equipment is what we need. Bordeaux has an elegant tram system, powered in sensitive areas by induction from coils buried below the track, but it cost a lot more than a standard tram setup, and probably only happened because the Mayor happened to be Alain Juppé, the former Prime Minister. I don't think that even having Tony Blair or John Major as the Western Super Mayor (©bignosemac) would do the trick around Bristol.

In support of hydrogen as the motive force, a fuel cell probably lasts a lot longer than a lithium ion battery. My son-in-common-law has a property maintenance business. My Makita lithium ion drill has been giving me sterling service for a good 5 years. He gets through two or three a year - the batteries cost nearly as much as the drill. You don't buy spare batteries -  they charge in just over 20 minutes, which is about the length of my tea break. He is currently enjoying almost 12 months unbroken service from a De Walt, though. Other drills are available.

Edit: VickiS - Clarifying Acronym
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Now, please!
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« Reply #29 on: July 24, 2017, 23:48:42 »

Bordeaux has an elegant tram system, powered in sensitive areas by induction from coils buried below the track, but it cost a lot more than a standard tram setup, and probably only happened because the Mayor happened to be Alain Juppé, the former Prime Minister.

Not quite. Alstom don't use inductive coupling; the APS (ground power supply) system developed for Bordeaux uses a flush contact rail energised in sections as the tram passes over. And they have supplied it to several cites since then. Starting with Nice they added on-board batteries to the ground supply, and are now pushing supercapacitors. This allows the ground contact to be reduced to a plate at each stop.

How the numbers work out isn't entirely clear. They talk about 13.5 kWh maximum, and a recharge period of 20 s, which calls for a few MW or a few kA at 750V - similar to a train. At roughly 600kW per tram, you only get a minute or two of full power - which may be enough to get to the next stop (you hope, anyway).
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