Shortage of train crews on Great Western Railway since September 2017 - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[Timmer]

The extras running for the last weekend of the Bath Christmas market this morning between Bristol and Westbury have been cancelled so normal scheduled services on this line are likely to be very busy.

Unsurprisingly so have the afternoon’s extras been cancelled. Coupled with some trains running shorter than normal it’s not a good performance once again. We can’t say we weren’t warned by Industry Insider that this was going to be the case until the end of the year.

[martyjon]

And now today to add to all the woes there is industrial action.


07:23 Warminster to Great Malvern due 10:32

07:23 Warminster to Great Malvern due 10:32 has been delayed at Bristol Temple Meads and is now 29 minutes late.

This is due to industrial action.

[Timmer]

And now today to add to all the woes there is industrial action.


07:23 Warminster to Great Malvern due 10:32

07:23 Warminster to Great Malvern due 10:32 has been delayed at Bristol Temple Meads and is now 29 minutes late.

This is due to industrial action.

Probably linked to XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise))’s revised timetable due to Industrial action.

[phile]

And now today to add to all the woes there is industrial action.


07:23 Warminster to Great Malvern due 10:32

07:23 Warminster to Great Malvern due 10:32 has been delayed at Bristol Temple Meads and is now 29 minutes late.

This is due to industrial action.

Probably linked to XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise))’s revised timetable due to Industrial action.

This is probably a knock on effect from XC Train Manager's strike today as you say.  This action won't help GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)'s position of accommodating passengers today as they are accepting XC tickets

[TaplowGreen]

The extras running for the last weekend of the Bath Christmas market this morning between Bristol and Westbury have been cancelled so normal scheduled services on this line are likely to be very busy.

Unsurprisingly so have the afternoon’s extras been cancelled. Coupled with some trains running shorter than normal it’s not a good performance once again. We can’t say we weren’t warned by Industry Insider that this was going to be the case until the end of the year.

Which begs the question, if Industry Insider could see it coming from months away, why didn't the Industry itself, and specifically GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway), do something about it?

And I repeat, according to GWR this morning,  ".....there is not a shortage of drivers, all timetabled services have a full complement of crew rostered in" -  so where are they all?

[broadgage]

Why does the dispute on cross country result in cancellation of GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)  services?

[phile]

Why does the dispute on cross country result in cancellation of GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)  services?

Nobody has said a train was cancelled,  merely delayed.   The root cause is the cause quoted and delay can be for a number of reactionary reasons. such as problem with XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) train blocking platform for one.

[insider]

The extras running for the last weekend of the Bath Christmas market this morning between Bristol and Westbury have been cancelled so normal scheduled services on this line are likely to be very busy.

Unsurprisingly so have the afternoon’s extras been cancelled. Coupled with some trains running shorter than normal it’s not a good performance once again. We can’t say we weren’t warned by Industry Insider that this was going to be the case until the end of the year.

Which begs the question, if Industry Insider could see it coming from months away, why didn't the Industry itself, and specifically GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway), do something about it?

And I repeat, according to GWR this morning,  ".....there is not a shortage of drivers, all timetabled services have a full complement of crew rostered in" -  so where are they all?

Well if you believe the GWR twitter feed??

The ongoing issue with Crew Shortage is multiple things. Yes on paper there are enough drivers. There are 3 main things one is the high number of training programmes at present. There are around 6-10 drivers a day released for 387 training. There are also roughly the same number for Route briefings for post Xmas changes. This training has to be done or we will be in an even worse state than now post New Year. THIS INFO IS JUST LTV^▸ (London [and] Thames Valley) (not sure about WEST issues but probably similar)

Then the other reason is the season, high levels of annual leave and sickness. However if you didn't have the 1st issue of approx. 20 drivers a day being released the 2nd issue would probably go all but unnoticed.

20 drivers a day is 20 diagrams of work uncovered, with approx. 6 hours of driving on average per turn that's a lot of uncovered trains.

The 3rd reason is the ongoing issue of overtime payment. There are no incentive payments to work overtime. Yes there is a flexibility deal (opt in or out) for majority of drivers but that doesn't cover any last minute issues. This is the railways industry own making. When you are being paid over £50k a year why would you agree to work an extra hour for roughly £20 (take home). Most would rather just go home, so drivers are refusing overtime.

So what are they doing about it???

LTV has over 40 active trainee drivers but this takes time. Recently around 8 have become competent. This number should have been higher. But training and exams are tough and some haven't passed the relevant tests. Why not train more you ask. It just isn't possible. Each trainee needs (after many weeks in classroom), 250 hours of driving over the routes that they will work. There are only so many instructors, many drivers don't want the added pressure or responsibility of teaching and that cant be forced on anyone. So it all takes time
GWR has had a huge training programme for trainee drivers over the last 7 years. Unfortunatly other TOCS know this and they just don't bother and then advertise for Qualified drivers and poach staff. Other parts of the country are much cheaper to live in and you can earn a higher salary for some TOCS. So the turnover of Drivers in LTV area is very high.
Reading currently has 45 drivers on a waiting list for transfers to other parts of GWR!!! they currently have around 28 trainees so it is a constant battle that will be here for the foreseeable future. (and another batch of trainees is starting next year)

My sources say its going to get even worse from New Year...so brace yourselves (but I keep my fingers crossed for a happy new year)

[phile]

Similarly to LTV^▸ (London [and] Thames Valley) drivers learning Class 387s, West drivers are training on the Turbos.

[ellendune]

Presumably HST^▸ (High Speed Train) Drivers are learning on IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train) as well

A question though:

Then the other reason is the season, high levels of annual leave and sickness. However if you didn't have the 1st issue of approx. 20 drivers a day being released the 2nd issue would probably go all but unnoticed.

Has late delivery of stock and cascade pushed the training into a season where it has more impact on performance, or compressed it so more training is happening at once, or was this always going to happen?

[TaplowGreen]

The extras running for the last weekend of the Bath Christmas market this morning between Bristol and Westbury have been cancelled so normal scheduled services on this line are likely to be very busy.

Unsurprisingly so have the afternoon’s extras been cancelled. Coupled with some trains running shorter than normal it’s not a good performance once again. We can’t say we weren’t warned by Industry Insider that this was going to be the case until the end of the year.

Which begs the question, if Industry Insider could see it coming from months away, why didn't the Industry itself, and specifically GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway), do something about it?

And I repeat, according to GWR this morning,  ".....there is not a shortage of drivers, all timetabled services have a full complement of crew rostered in" -  so where are they all?

Well if you believe the GWR twitter feed??

Snipped it a bit for the sake of space.

As GWR's twitter feed is now it's main interface and virtually the only means of getting a response within an acceptable timeframe (emails take months as we all know), I'd be very concerned if your suggestion that it gives out dishonest information is true.

The detail you give on training, annual leave, sickness etc is interesting and enlightening however these are factors which every Business has to deal with, basic workforce management, and in the main they cope without collapsing in the way that GWR frequently do.

GWR must have known that all these training commitments were coming up months if not years in advance, yet it now seems that it has crept up on them unannounced.

Ultimately, this reeks of poor planning and weak management.

[ChrisB]

Who do you think is around to shunt & join these units together? And getting the decision to do so to anyone to notify said shunter?

Shunters don't grow on units in sidings....

[ellendune]

The detail you give on training, annual leave, sickness etc is interesting and enlightening however these are factors which every Business has to deal with, basic workforce management, and in the main they cope without collapsing in the way that GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) frequently do.

Yes but most businesses can just go out to a temp agency and get more staff in off the street!  They don't have to train them for months before they can use them.

[ChrisB]

Indeed, TG isn't reading what several of us are telling him.....

[Tim]

My question is why is profit of less than 0.3% seen as adequate for Amex, but 3% is seen as barely enough for a ToC? 

The simple answer is Risk.  If you were assured a nice steady return with little likelihood of loosing your original capital, then you should expect a low rate of return. 0.3% suggests a really solid investment.  

On the other hand if you were likely to get nothing at all because the likelihood is that the company will make nothing at all or even loose your capital because the company goes bust, then you would expect a very high return to make it worth your while investing in the shares.  

Earlier post talked about shareholders.  When we speak of TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) they are separate companies (usually) wholly owned by the holding company.  So there are shareholders - just they are corporate shareholders.

If we look at the East Coast debacle - we see that two previous companies have handed in the keys (not just exercised a break clause) and another one is about to do so.  The fact that the current Government seems likely to let Stagecoach off lightly is something that had a risk to it as well as we all know that politicians are unpredictable.  

The result therefore of DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)'s push to get the best deal and, on bidding, appear to transfer huge risk to the TOC  means that bidders will factor in for higher returns to cover the risk. They say they have transferred risk.  In some (but not all) cases they have created that risk in order transfer it, which is madness as it just creates excess cost!

Government is seen as a low risk borrower so they can borrow at much lower interest rates. However when they privatise they transfer risk so must pay more. This is why some (right and left alike) are asking if privatisation is worth it.  

What about the cost of bidding for a franchise? Does that count as 'capital'?

Nope, that's Opex.

I disagree. It is money put up front in the hope of getting a return. If the bidder looses they get nothing! In my judgement therefore it can be considered capital.

A really good reply.  If I paraphrase you correctly, it seems that profit is justified to cover the ToC's risks of a) spending huge sums on a bid and not winning, and b) performance being below par and having to pony up because the system is set up to put artificial barriers (performance bonds etc) in the way of a ToC walking away from a franchise which is loosing money.

It would be churlish to point out that both of those risks only exist because of the crazy way in which Government has chosen to set up the system.