Shortage of rolling stock since September 2017 - ongoing problems, and subsequent discussion

[whole diary]

[johoare]

I agree NickB.. So far I've noticed that the 7.17am and 7.59am morning HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) have been replaced (the 7.17am by a 5 car (I think) turbo) and the 5.36pm evening HST the same as the 7.17am. I don't think there are any others at the moment but that's probably half of the HST capacity gone. Added to that a lot of the EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) have LOTS of padding in their running times currently so journey time has increased too

[ChrisB]

Isn't it covered by Section 7 of the Franchise Agreement?  I think a lot of the blame lays with the client, DfT^» (Department for Transport - about), for not enforcing it.....
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/first-great-western

How can they when they have caused this stock problem by allowing the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) to be signed up by Scotrail with no leeway for delays in electrification (that they cancelled!)

I suspect GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) aren't happy either frankly

[stuving]

Isn't it covered by Section 7 of the Franchise Agreement?  I think a lot of the blame lays with the client, DfT^» (Department for Transport - about), for not enforcing it.....
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/first-great-western

How can they when they have caused this stock problem by allowing the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) to be signed up by Scotrail with no leeway for delays in electrification (that they cancelled!)

I suspect GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) aren't happy either frankly

I don't follow. Are you suggesting that:
1. If GWR agreed to hand back HSTs before their replacements were certain, or very likely, to be available, they are not at fault but DfT are for not intervening to stop them? And
2. In part of the network, electrification has been cancelled (or deferred, or whatever) by DfT and this has resulted in a delay in the replacement stock for HSTs being operable? Where?

[grahame]

I suspect GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) aren't happy either frankly

I don't follow. Are you suggesting that:
1. If GWR agreed to hand back HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) before their replacements were certain, or very likely, to be available, they are not at fault but DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) are for not intervening to stop them? And
2. In part of the network, electrification has been cancelled (or deferred, or whatever) by DfT and this has resulted in a delay in the replacement stock for HSTs being operable? Where?

I don't think GWR are happy either, having spoken with the director who's oles include ensuring they have stock to run the services.  Projects slip, and is I understand it some slippage time was built in between planned withdrawal of HSTs from the GWR patch and their re-introduction up in Scotland.  However, the slippage has exceeded what was allowed for in the plans.

How much of the allowance for slippage was requested by GWR / how much they were allowed to have, what they were told about realistic schedules in good time that turned out to be not realistic, I don't know.  And without that knowledge it's difficult to point the finger too much in any one direction.  Which is, of course, very convenient for all the people who might have the finger pointed at them, isn't it?

On new stock availability (IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)), how much extra time's being taken by the switching around of production, etc, to deliver bi-modes for all GWR units rather than electric versions for services like London to Bristol, London to Oxford, London to Cardiff and London to Swansea?

[stuving]

I don't think GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) are happy either, having spoken with the director who's oles include ensuring they have stock to run the services.  Projects slip, and is I understand it some slippage time was built in between planned withdrawal of HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) from the GWR patch and their re-introduction up in Scotland.  However, the slippage has exceeded what was allowed for in the plans.

How much of the allowance for slippage was requested by GWR / how much they were allowed to have, what they were told about realistic schedules in good time that turned out to be not realistic, I don't know.  And without that knowledge it's difficult to point the finger too much in any one direction.  Which is, of course, very convenient for all the people who might have the finger pointed at them, isn't it?

On new stock availability (IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)), how much extra time's being taken by the switching around of production, etc, to deliver bi-modes for all GWR units rather than electric versions for services like London to Bristol, London to Oxford, London to Cardiff and London to Swansea?

The franchise contract predates NR^» (Network Rail - home page) owning up to the electrification delays, and the Hendy rescheduling, but even then it notes that the earliest end-of-lease date for HSTs was this month (09/17):

HST lease expiry date is not necessarily representative of the fleet withdrawal date; this is linked to the IEP stock delivery and will be formalised during the lease period shown to manage the transition from HSTs to IEP. In the case of Angel Trains Limited HSTs the lease expiry dates range from between 09/17 and 04/19. In the case of Porterbrook HSTs the lease expiry is 09/17 but subject to the IEP stock delivery will be extended in accordance with the terms of the lease. It is also subject to the outcome of the West of England Rolling Stock Procurement Option.
...
Where the Secretary of State exercises his rights under the West of England Rolling Stock Procurement Option, the HST lease expiry dates shall be altered so that all the HSTs leave the Train Fleet by January 2019, with the FRH leased HSTs being the last to be returned. In this case the HSTs will not be subject to a PRM^▸ (Persons with Reduced Mobility) related modification programme.

That "West of England Rolling Stock Procurement Option" is what did happen with the order for 802s, but whatever adjustment was made for that, and for the new "Hendified" dates, we don't know. The IEP delivery schedule says that 26 800s should be available now, so if they are not then that would call for extension of the leases under this contract. However, these words don't mention lack of electricity as equivalent to delay of trains, and of course we don't know if the contract was also modified to account for the HSTs going to Scotrail.

But it does look as if the first withdrawals have happened earlier than this original contract said they should. Does anyone know if the Scotrail deal was done before or after Hendy (or rather NR's admission of its foul-up)?

[ChrisB]

Hasn't this happened?

Where the Secretary of State exercises his rights under the West of England Rolling Stock Procurement Option, the HST^▸ (High Speed Train) lease expiry dates shall be altered so that all the HSTs leave the Train Fleet by January 2019, with the FRH leased HSTs being the last to be returned. In this case the HSTs will not be subject to a PRM^▸ (Persons with Reduced Mobility) related modification programme.

So, " all the HSTs leave the Train Fleet by January 2019" - BY January 2019. Doesn't state when the start date is....

[paul7575]

Hasn't this happened?

Where the Secretary of State exercises his rights under the West of England Rolling Stock Procurement Option, the HST^▸ (High Speed Train) lease expiry dates shall be altered so that all the HSTs leave the Train Fleet by January 2019, with the FRH leased HSTs being the last to be returned. In this case the HSTs will not be subject to a PRM^▸ (Persons with Reduced Mobility) related modification programme.

So, " all the HSTs leave the Train Fleet by January 2019" - BY January 2019. Doesn't state when the start date is....

At the time of publishing that 2015 GW^▸ (Great Western) direct award brief that many of us have seen and/or downloaded, the first HSTs were only to be returned in Sept 2017, and the last in Jan 2019.   We are still in September and the first HST has apparently recently gone off lease.   Apparently the last HST service is now supposed to be in Feb 2019 rather than January

So are there really significant delays, or not?   Can any current delays be overcome, and is there therefore a risk of exaggerating the difficulties?

Paul

[stuving]

Hasn't this happened?

Where the Secretary of State exercises his rights under the West of England Rolling Stock Procurement Option, the HST^▸ (High Speed Train) lease expiry dates shall be altered so that all the HSTs leave the Train Fleet by January 2019, with the FRH leased HSTs being the last to be returned. In this case the HSTs will not be subject to a PRM^▸ (Persons with Reduced Mobility) related modification programme.

So, " all the HSTs leave the Train Fleet by January 2019" - BY January 2019. Doesn't state when the start date is....

Yes, but that end date only replaces what was in the bit I snipped out:

Where the Secretary of State does not exercise his rights under the West of England Rolling Stock Procurement Option, the Franchisee shall retain in the Train Fleet to the end of the Franchise Term the HSTs leased from First Rail Holdings Limited and 16 HST sets (which comprise 30 power cars) leased from Angel Trains Limited, with the balance of the HSTs being returned to their owner. The HST vehicles being retained for the Franchise Term will be subject to a PRM related modification programme and as such the seat numbers may be affected; the numbers shown are stated pre-PRM modification.

So the phasing of the earlier replacement of most HSTs by the main IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) fleet should still be covered by what it says about extension "in accordance with the lease" (whatever that implies).

[ChrisB]

There may need to be work done pre-going off lease? Which is what is happening now? To remove any GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) additions/alterations made to hand back in original state?

[JayMac]

Aren't the physical alterations (more seats, micro buffets, composite carriages, new toilets, laminated windows, lighting etc) carried out with the agreement of the lessor?

I can't see FirstGroup being responsible for putting back IC70 seats and ripping out micro buffets...

To remove all the additions/alterations made since privatisation won't happen. Why would the lessor want back rolling stock in original condition? That'd make it impossible for them to re-lease it. Besides, Angel and Porterbrook underwrote most of the conversion costs.

[stuving]

The franchise contract on the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)'s relevant web page is now an updated one. While the only date at the front is the original one of 22/3/2015, this is version 8.5 and the newest dated addition I can see is from June 2017. That's in the list of derogations; other changes within the text are not dated. The PDF was made on 21/9/2017.

The note about HST^▸ (High Speed Train) leases now says:

HST lease expiry date is not necessarily representative of the fleet withdrawal date; this is linked to the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) stock delivery and will be formalised during the lease period shown to manage the transition from HSTs to IEP. In the case of Angel Trains Limited HSTs the lease expiry dates range from between 09/17 and 01/19. In the case of Porterbrook HSTs the lease expiry is 09/17 but subject to the IEP stock delivery will be extended in accordance with the terms of the lease.

The HSTs will not be subject to a PRM^▸ (Persons with Reduced Mobility) related modification programme.

The IEP delivery schedule hasn't changed, it still says 16 5-car 800s should be running now (not 26 - the figure I gave earlier was a mistake, 26 should be available by the December timetable change).

[ChrisB]

The note about HST^▸ (High Speed Train) leases now says:

Angel Trains Limited HSTs the lease expiry dates range from between 09/17 and 01/19

There you go - start 09/17

Aren't the physical alterations (more seats, micro buffets, composite carriages, new toilets, laminated windows, lighting etc) carried out with the agreement of the lessor?

Quite possibly need to put the seating back into original layout, and yes, the buffets may need to go - all depends on what was agreed with the lessor at the time. Certainly the vinyls/paint needs doing too

[JayMac]

Are you suggesting there are several thousand IC70 seats in storage somewhere?

[stuving]

The note about HST^▸ (High Speed Train) leases now says:

Angel Trains Limited HSTs the lease expiry dates range from between 09/17 and 01/19

There you go - start 09/17

Of course - and there are eight new 10-car trains to replace them. If there aren't, or they can't run for some reason DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) are responsible for (and DfT are responsible for Network Rail, aren't they?), and GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) are not, then:

HST lease expiry date is not necessarily representative of the fleet withdrawal date; this is linked to the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) stock delivery and will be formalised during the lease period shown to manage the transition from HSTs to IEP.

So if the 800s have genuinely not been available for GWR to run, and DfT have refused to intervene, then GWR do have reason to complain. But it's hard to see how the small "negative clearance" between the two schedules explains the number of HSTs that have gone AWOL^▸ (Absent Without Leave).

[grahame]

But it's hard to see how the small "negative clearance" between the two schedules explains the number of HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) that have gone AWOL^▸ (Absent Without Leave).

58 HST sets plus 5 Adelantes in the spring - 63 long distance trains.   One Adelante to Great Central, and one to Hull Trains.  One HST to Scotland, one in special engineering in Doncaster, one derailed as it left Paddington and one had a rather spectacular exhaust fire a few days back.   So that's 6 sets, or around 10%, less in the operational fleet - and nothing new into service until 16th October, when two diagrams worth come back.   

Another HST to Scotland very soon indeed, and perhaps the Paddington and Exeter casualties are back in service - but never the less, you can see why a combination of turbos released by electrification to Maidenhead and by trimming back 3 car services to 2 cars are deputising for HSTs in the Thames Valley.