The maths of short forms and where we are headed

[whole diary]

[grahame]

106 short forms over the GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) area this morning ... longest list I can recall.   Lots of 3 cars down to 2.

I read elsewhere that a turbo ran a Cardiff to Portsmouth service for the first time (? yesterday), turning around at Fareham, and other data suggests that they're still not cleared into Portsmouth Harbour - said to be due to the position of a couple of ground signals.   Not sure if that's a limited clearance issue of whether the train might actually hit the signals.

One thing that puzzles me - if the Cardiff - Portsmouth service is stepping up to 5 car 16x trains soon and there are 8 or 9 of them in the daily cycle, where are they all coming from?  "Newbury must be electric by the New Year" is what I hear, and yet I can't see that releasing more that a handful of Turbos on its own.   Another 3 x 3 car are released when the Bedwyn services go over to 802s. Does "Cardiff / Portsmouth to 5 car" rely on something else - such as 769 to Gatwick?  Is there a thin air machine due for commissioning in coming months out of which turbos can be produced?

Any help explaining the maths by those in the industry would be appreciated!



Edit to clarify text

[Timmer]

Thinking back to the early days of the Coffee Shop when discussion and listing the many short formed West local services was an almost daily occurance, if you had told me years later we'd be discussing short formed Intercity services I'd have never believed you. Broadgage saw it coming in his crystal ball though!

[broadgage]

I suspect that a lot of plans are "hopes, wishes, and aspirations" rather than proper planning based on actual stock availability.

For some years, FGW^▸ (First Great Western), then GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) suffered from "new train disease" I refer here not to the merits or otherwise of the new trains but to the belief that all would be well once they had the new trains.

I refer not just to the IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train) but also to the new EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) for Thames valley services. It was widely believed that once these EMUs arrived, that there would be "loads" of turbos spare to be cascaded further west in order to provide longer or more frequent services. For various reasons this has not worked, and many of the assumptions about timescales and availability of both the new EMUs and the cascaded Turbos have proved unduly optimistic.

And as for IETs, It was originally stated that there would be "plenty" of the new DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) and "a lot of extra capacity" and eventually this may indeed be achieved, meanwhile single 5 car DMUs instead of full length HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) are becoming the new normal.

[Timmer]

meanwhile single 5 car DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) instead of full length HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) are becoming the new normal.

Thus ruining the new train experience for those using or trying to use the train as most passengers will think this five car train is the replacement for 8 carriage HST.

[grahame]

meanwhile single 5 car DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) instead of full length HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) are becoming the new normal.

Thus ruining the new train experience for those using or trying to use the train as most passengers will think this five car train is the replacement for 8 carriage HST.

Indeed ... and those of us with long memories remember the HSTs being (largely) replaces by "something for the future" on journeys from the South West and Bristol to Birmingham and the north, but the future not feeling as spacious and not feeling that way still - after all these years!

[devonexpress]

I suspect that a lot of plans are "hopes, wishes, and aspirations" rather than proper planning based on actual stock availability.

For some years, FGW^▸ (First Great Western), then GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) suffered from "new train disease" I refer here not to the merits or otherwise of the new trains but to the belief that all would be well once they had the new trains.

I refer not just to the IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train) but also to the new EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) for Thames valley services. It was widely believed that once these EMUs arrived, that there would be "loads" of turbos spare to be cascaded further west in order to provide longer or more frequent services. For various reasons this has not worked, and many of the assumptions about timescales and availability of both the new EMUs and the cascaded Turbos have proved unduly optimistic.

And as for IETs, It was originally stated that there would be "plenty" of the new DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) and "a lot of extra capacity" and eventually this may indeed be achieved, meanwhile single 5 car DMUs instead of full length HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) are becoming the new normal.

I do agree, GWR (FGW) had too high a hopes that new trains would solve everything, and sadly for them, other forces have made things go belly up.


As for the IET's they still need more of them, the requirement for more IET's outways the timescale and amount being delivered.   I've also seen that a the Royal Shakespeare company want GWR to serve Stratford Upon Avon from 2020, meaning even less trains available for the rest of the network.

[Adelante_CCT]

Newbury must be electric by the New Year" is what I hear, and yet I can't see that releasing more that a handful of Turbos on its own.   Another 3 x 3 car are released when the Bedwyn services go over to 802s. Does "Cardiff / Portsmouth to 5 car" rely on something else - such as 769 to Gatwick? 

Potentially 2 turbos being released from the Newbury's, and as you say another 3 from the Bedwyns. I would guess another handful from ones that are currently doing fast Oxford/Cotswold services being replaced by 80Xs as well.

Whether that's enough to give Portsmouth 5 cars I don't know, but the potential arrival of 769s would be a huge help, though that's not looking likely any time soon

[didcotdean]

Also there will be the need for something, presumably turbos to cover for 387s gone for HEXification.

[broadgage]

Are the 769s actually going to happen ? A cynic might suspect that the project has been de facto abandoned, but that no one wants to actually declare it dead just yet.

At best another couple of years delay seems likely, though I doubt that it will happen at all.

And of course whilst the 769 project is still officially alive, that absolves GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) from any need to make other plans "Everything will get better once we have the 769s"

[eightf48544]

Viva rail 230s (Battery?)  for Windsor, Marlow and Henley now there's no through services that would release a few more Turbos.

Spelling corrected

[broadgage]

Viva rail 230s (Battery?)  for Windsor, Marlow and Henley now there's no through services that would release a few more Turbos.

Presuming that the battery units can be procured in a reasonable time, and that they work as intended, that sounds a good idea both on environmental grounds, and by releasing a few turbos for use elsewhere.

My natural cynicism however leads to the suspicion that because the 769 project is not officially dead yet, that no other stock is being considered. Just keep repeating "it will get better once we have the 769s"

After a few years, a statement can be released "we had plans for new trains but have been let down by a supplier, who faced unexpected challenges. We are now reviewing other options" meanwhile short formations and overcrowding have got even worse.

[devonexpress]

Viva rail 230s (Battery?)  for Windsor, Marlow and Henley now there's no through services that would release a few more Turbos.

Presuming that the battery units can be procured in a reasonable time, and that they work as intended, that sounds a good idea both on environmental grounds, and by releasing a few turbos for use elsewhere.

My natural cynicism however leads to the suspicion that because the 769 project is not officially dead yet, that no other stock is being considered. Just keep repeating "it will get better once we have the 769s"

After a few years, a statement can be released "we had plans for new trains but have been let down by a supplier, who faced unexpected challenges. We are now reviewing other options" meanwhile short formations and overcrowding have got even worse.

I suspect your write, but GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) did reply to someone on twitter saying the 769s are arriving next year.

[Adelante_CCT]

Also there will be the need for something, presumably turbos to cover for 387s gone for HEXification.

I guess they could just use unused class 319s instead as a temporary measure.