Train GraphicClick on the map to explore geographics
I need help
About .
Travel & transport from BBC stories as at 16:35 08 Dec 2023
- Wind and rain expected to bring weekend travel disruption
- Rail passengers stuck for hours in 'surreal' ordeal
Read about the forum [here].
Register [here] - it's free.
What do I gain from registering? [here]
 10/12/23 - Winter Timetable starts
14/12/23 - Estimates of station usage: Ap
24/12/23 - Paddington closed
25/12/23 - No GWR trains

On this day
8th Dec (2018)
Old Oak Common depot closes (*)

Train RunningCancelled
12:50 Penzance to Cardiff Central
13:00 Cardiff Central to Penzance
14:36 London Paddington to Paignton
08/12/23 14:59 Cheltenham Spa to London Paddington
15:15 Plymouth to London Paddington
15:18 London Paddington to Cardiff Central
15:31 London Paddington to Cheltenham Spa
15:42 Exeter St Davids to London Paddington
15:47 Plymouth to Penzance
15:54 Cardiff Central to London Paddington
16:00 Cardiff Central to Taunton
16:01 Reading to Gatwick Airport
16:02 Oxford to London Paddington
16:13 Par to Newquay
16:23 London Paddington to Oxford
16:25 Looe to Liskeard
16:33 Reading to Basingstoke
16:50 Plymouth to London Paddington
16:50 Reading to Gatwick Airport
16:54 Liskeard to Looe
16:54 Cardiff Central to London Paddington
16:59 Cheltenham Spa to London Paddington
17:00 Plymouth to Liskeard
17:01 Oxford to London Paddington
17:10 Gloucester to Weymouth
17:11 Taunton to Cardiff Central
17:19 Newquay to Par
17:19 Basingstoke to Reading
17:25 Looe to Liskeard
17:29 Gatwick Airport to Reading
17:54 Cardiff Central to London Paddington
17:56 Liskeard to Plymouth
17:57 Liskeard to Looe
18:23 London Paddington to Banbury
18:29 Gatwick Airport to Reading
18:30 Looe to Liskeard
18:59 Cheltenham Spa to London Paddington
19:00 Liskeard to Looe
19:20 Reading to Redhill
19:30 Looe to Liskeard
Additional 19:35 Westbury to Salisbury
19:58 Cardiff Central to Taunton
20:01 Reading to Gatwick Airport
20:05 Liskeard to Looe
20:06 Westbury to Cheltenham Spa
20:13 Swindon to Westbury
20:14 Weymouth to Bristol Temple Meads
20:37 Looe to Liskeard
21:05 Liskeard to Looe
21:16 Westbury to Swindon
21:29 Gatwick Airport to Reading
21:37 Looe to Liskeard
22:16 Cheltenham Spa to Swindon
22:24 Plymouth to Exeter St Davids
22:30 Swindon to Westbury
22:44 Taunton to Bristol Temple Meads
23:42 Swindon to Cheltenham Spa
Short Run
12:15 Penzance to London Paddington
13:23 Portsmouth Harbour to Cardiff Central
13:28 Weymouth to Gloucester
14:00 Cardiff Central to Penzance
15:00 Cardiff Central to Taunton
15:18 Hereford to London Paddington
15:28 London Paddington to Weston-Super-Mare
15:30 Cardiff Central to Portsmouth Harbour
PollsThere are no open or recent polls
Abbreviation pageAcronymns and abbreviations
Stn ComparatorStation Comparator
Rail newsNews Now - live rail news feed
Site Style 1 2 3 4
Next departures • Bristol Temple MeadsBath SpaChippenhamSwindonDidcot ParkwayReadingLondon PaddingtonMelksham
Exeter St DavidsTauntonWestburyTrowbridgeBristol ParkwayCardiff CentralOxfordCheltenham SpaBirmingham New Street
December 08, 2023, 04:52:37 pm *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Forgotten your username or password? - get a reminder
Most recently liked subjects
[152] Network Rail is failing.
[125] Annoying / amusing use of completely irrelevant stock photos t...
[88] Infrastructure problems in Thames Valley causing disruption el...
[56] A new era dawns on the TransWilts - 08 Dec 13
[18] County Cricket on the move from Bristol?
[14] 2023 - Train update and amendment log - Swindon <-> Westbury...
News: the Great Western Coffee Shop ... keeping you up to date with travel around the South West
   Home   Help Search Calendar Login Register  
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Most likely causes of rail growth unveiled  (Read 1354 times)
Hero Member
Posts: 39970

View Profile WWW Email
« on: November 19, 2018, 04:16:35 pm »

For the last 20 years or so, passenger numbers on UK (United Kingdom) trains have grown - after a relatively unchanging 20 years before that, which in turn followed a 20 year period of decline.

From Wikipedia Commons:

Advocates of privatisation (which happened around the time the curve turned back up) suggest that the change can be attributed to privatisation.  Other suggest that the changes just happened to be at the same time, or even that the increase has happened in spite of privatisation.

From Rail News today

A NEW analysis has concluded that the growth in demand for rail travel has been caused by changes in working and living patterns since the 1990s, and that some of this growth is ‘beyond the rail industry's control’.

The conclusions from a think tank, the Independent Transport Commission, have been welcomed by Network Rail chairman Sir Peter Hendy, who is also patron of the ITC.

Demand for rail has soared since the mid-1990s, and politicians in favour of privatisation have routinely claimed that breaking up British Ral and bringing in the private sector was the main reason.

The ITC, though, says that a greater percentage of the population is now travelling by train because of ‘major economic and spatial changes’, which have prompted a 58 per cent rise in the number of passengers travelling by train to work, or for other business purposes.

The places where people are living have changed, and there have also been ‘significant structural changes to the UK economy’ over the past 25 years.

The report – ‘Wider factors affecting the long-term growth in rail travel’ – was researched by statistics specialists Ian Williams and Kaveh Jahanshahi, who found that major shifts in housing locations and the jobs market have increased the tendency for people to use rail.

Increases since the 1990s have been accompanied by a rise in the general population of 15 per cent, but the number of rail journeys doubled over the same period, amounting to an increase of 100 per cent.

Changes in the job market have played a part. Many more people work in offices now and fewer in manufacturing, and it is office-based workers who are more likely to commute by train. However, it adds that ‘recent circumstances have been considerably less favourable to encouraging rail growth than the circumstances typical of the earlier years following rail privatisation’.

The sharpest increases in job growth since the 1990s have been in south east England, and these have been accompanied by the biggest rises in demand for rail travel. One figure demonstrates the pattern: if the population in a rural area increases by 100, it includes six extra rail commuters. In London, however, a similar population increase typically includes 49 extra rail users.


I think it's telling me a lot of what I think I had concluded anyway ...

Total report - 136 pages - ((here))

Coffee Shop Admin, Acting Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, Option 24/7 Melksham Rep
Hero Member
Posts: 39970

View Profile WWW Email
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2018, 04:33:33 pm »

Very interesting analysis by Sim Harris on the end of that article.

Sim Harris

Politicians in favour of the private sector have been routinely claiming for many years that it was privatisation which boosted demand for rail travel, although the evidence was strictly circumstantial. True, demand began to grow at the same time as the industry was being privatised, from 761 million individual trains used in 1995 to 957 million in 2000.

These figures are sometimes miscalled ‘journeys’ although they actually count each train used in the course of a journey, but the growth is undeniable, amounting to almost 26 per cent between 1995 and 2000. What politicians never could explain is why mere changes of management and control could cause such a huge boost, particularly when the improvements required of the new franchise-holders mostly took at least five years to become reality. Virgin, for example, launched the Intercity West Coast franchise in 1997, but the first tilting Pendolinos did not carry passengers until 2002.

New fleets for other franchises, such as LTS/c2c, took almost as long to arrive, while a number of first-generation franchise contracts were fairly unambitious, with no major rolling stock changes envisaged for East Coast or Great Western, nor for the regional franchises in the north of England.

On the other hand, substantial changes were planned for the three third-rail franchises south of London, but once again new trains to replace the old slam-door stock were not appearing until the turn of the century (the last slam-door train did not leave London Waterloo until May 2005).

This report is probably the best analysis so far of what has really been going on, but don’t expect the politicians to admit that they were wrong.

The last three years have seen falls in season ticket travel in particular, although these may be at least partly related to the disruption caused by industrial action and, more recently, unworkable timetables.

Modest growth has restarted recently, but fewer people are using season tickets, and the authors suggest changing circumstances may have reduced the likelihood of growth continuing on such a scale as we were seeing 20 years ago. We can only guess the implications of that for longer-term planning.

Coffee Shop Admin, Acting Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, Option 24/7 Melksham Rep
Red Squirrel
Hero Member
Posts: 5116

There are some who call me... Tim

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2018, 05:15:43 pm »

Interesting graph - the curve post-2010 is steeper than ever before!

Things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
Clan Line
Hero Member
Posts: 827

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2018, 03:46:52 pm »

So, according to the Mick Cash/Jeremy Corbin theory if the railways had been/were to be re-nationalised our grossly overcrowded trains would be even more grossly overcrowded ??
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
Posts: 4256

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2018, 09:12:59 pm »

These figures are sometimes miscalled ‘journeys’ although they actually count each train used in the course of a journey,
So if I were to go from Stroud to London changing at Swindon, it counts as two 'journeys', but if I go direct it's only one? Curious.

But the overall message seems to be that most/much of the growth in rail journeys is due a general growth in transport. (A simplification I'm sure but that seems to be the basic idea.) Who'dathunkit?

Waiting at Pilning for the midnight sleeper to Prague.
Hero Member
Posts: 39970

View Profile WWW Email
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2018, 09:35:07 pm »

These figures are sometimes miscalled ‘journeys’ although they actually count each train used in the course of a journey,
So if I were to go from Stroud to London changing at Swindon, it counts as two 'journeys', but if I go direct it's only one? Curious.

Interchanges are shown on the annual stats, so you could calculate them out.  I suspect that Stroud to London change at Swindon, split ticket at Didcot may count as yet another though, and there's no easy way to factor that out.

There's a whole lot of wardardy in the figures (a document is published each year explaining); the really significant thing is one year relative to the previous when you're looking at whether a line / station is headed in the right direction

Coffee Shop Admin, Acting Chair of Melksham Rail User Group, Option 24/7 Melksham Rep
Transport Scholar
Hero Member
Posts: 4574

View Profile Email
« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2018, 11:15:05 am »

Do you have something you would like to add to this thread, or would you like to raise a new question at the Coffee Shop? Please [register] (it is free) if you have not done so before, or login (at the top of this page) if you already have an account - we would love to read what you have to say!

You can find out more about how this forum works [here] - that will link you to a copy of the forum agreement that you can read before you join, and tell you very much more about how we operate. We are an independent forum, provided and run by customers of Great Western Railway, for customers of Great Western Railway and we welcome railway professionals as members too, in either a personal or official capacity. Views expressed in posts are not necessarily the views of the operators of the forum.

As well as posting messages onto existing threads, and starting new subjects, members can communicate with each other through personal messages if they wish. And once members have made a certain number of posts, they will automatically be admitted to the "frequent posters club", where subjects not-for-public-domain are discussed; anything from the occasional rant to meetups we may be having ...

Pages: [1]
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.2 | SMF © 2006-2007, Simple Machines LLC Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
This forum is provided by customers of Great Western Railway (formerly First Great Western), and the views expressed are those of the individual posters concerned. Visit for the official Great Western Railway website. Please contact the administrators of this site if you feel that the content provided by one of our posters contravenes our posting rules (email link to report). Forum hosted by Well House Consultants

Jump to top of pageJump to Forum Home Page