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Author Topic: New access point / service - what would my catchment be?  (Read 3070 times)
grahame
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« on: February 23, 2019, 08:12:51 »

Quoting from a discussion about Melksham to Bath and the Bradford North Curve.

This talk of catchments set me wondering, because it doesn't seem right to assume that buses and train/tram stations have the same catchment size. A study for Bournemouth supports this view, suggesting that whilst heavy rail or metro systems might have a catchment radius of 800m to 1.2km, for tram systems it is nearer 400m to 600m. Grahame's 250m radius may well be right for buses. In essence, the catchment increases in proportion to the quality (in all its aspects) of the service.

And then again ... how about when two access points are both within easy distance of an individual's staring point / front gate / workplace entrance / caravan?  Do the areas overlap? Do you allocate to the closest or the best served?  Will people travel out from one access point and back to the other / how much of that gets involved with ticket acceptance, etc?

Comment is made about some local use made of Lelant Saltings, offering Lelant or the bus as alternatives. Perhaps this traffic which is within the catchment of both stations has gravitated to the Saltings because of the much better service and will revert to Lelant in the future?  I am noting the extra calls at Lelant are lunchtime and school-end time.

Circles / distances from stations are in any case a very rough measure indeed.  Some would go further. From David O'Connor and Oran Harrison at the Dublin Institute of Technology, School of Transport Engineering, Environment and Planning ( https://arrow.dit.ie/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=beschspcon )

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The Euclidean method of measuring a rail station’s catchment, a circle on a map, is widely discredited in most literature; the failure of it to allow for natural and manmade obstacles means a more detailed method is required for accurate results [14]. Landex and Hansen [14] recommend the Network Analyst approach of mapping the real walking routes along the street network to the station. They map the catchments for rail stations in Copenhagen using both methods to show how the Euclidean method’s inability to take rivers into consideration leads it to include areas with no actual access to the stations whereas the Network Analyst approach identifies these obstacles and makes the relevant changes to the catchment area.

The Euclidean method can often have a detour factor built into it e.g. even if people are willing to walk 1km the circle will have a 800m radius to take account of obstacles. Once again however Landex and Hansen [14] point out that a one size fits all detour factor is not useful because as the urban grain of areas differ so would the detour times. Ker and Ginn [3] point out that even in areas of high pedestrian permeability, e.g. inner city neighbourhoods, circular walking catchments still only reach 60% efficiency which drops as low as 10% in poorly connected, often outer suburban, areas.

Actual walking routes are rarely as direct as the Euclidean method assumes meaning that the actual catchment area is smaller than expected; if the actual walking route is a third longer than the Euclidean method uses then the actual catchment radius is 75% of the original assumption and the actual population could be 56% of that projected. Barton et al. [13] support the use of the Network Analyst approach to map the real routes travelled and as such better plan the location of public facilities including rail infrastructure.

I know what he means ... as I was drawing circles on maps on the thread I've broken this off from, I was wondering (on Staverton Station) where would the ststion entrance be - and where the access routes would run.  And I'm aware of the 800 metre walk at Melksham to get to Foundry Close on the old goods yard, where fence panels block the direct line between (!) two pieces of Wiltshire Council land and the walk should be 50 metres.

Circles, or shapes, as drawn also have hard boundaries, but really they need to fade.  Most people will walk two hundred metres from the station. Few will walk two miles. But what about 800 metres? A mile? 2km?  And I'm going to suggest that walking distances vary depending on what you are walking to.   From Melksham Station, I will walk 1500 metres (ish) home, but I wouldn't think about walking 350 metres to the nearest bus stop.  But then if it's peeing down, would I walk the 1500 metres?

So - how should we define the catchment area around a public transport access point?  How do we estimate abstraction of traffic from one access point by a proposed new one?  How do we correlate market penetration of an access point based on the frequency and desired destiantion of the services that do or will call there?
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2019, 13:42:52 »

The DIT is clearly right. Many years ago when we were trying to find school places for our kids (at the time there was a significant shortage) we found that places were allocated on a strictly Euclidian rule, which meant that people living in St George were allocated places in St Anne's - close as the crow flies, but with few crossing points over the Avon a very long walk away. This was absurd, but also unchallengeable when parents started getting eggy about their failure to get places at their favourite school.

Meanwhile, Google certainly have the technology to work out real catchments based on any set of rules you may wish to give, with reasonable accuracy. The question is: What are the rules? The Severn Beach line to Clifton Down would make an interesting case study, because arguably it is a luxury - alternative, more frequent bus services are available, and yet people find their way to its bleak, utilitarian platforms and fill its infrequent trains. There may be other reasons for this, but the obvious one is that people much, much prefer rail-based transport if it is available, and will walk much further to use it.   

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« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2019, 16:58:26 »

The Euclidean (or Manhatten, sides of rectangle instead of diagonal) are easy which is why they are used. Actual route, road or path, is more difficult and requires more technology. Most of the elements to do it available in free/cheap software, including the map data. Isochrones (lines of equal time) sometimes reveal some interesting aspects of transport networks, similar if you use distance instead of time.
NHS used to use Euclidean to estimate nearest GP surgery, did imply a lot of patients swimming the Thames to see the doctor.
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« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2019, 17:28:37 »

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NHS used to use Euclidean to estimate nearest GP surgery, did imply a lot of patients swimming the Thames to see the doctor.

Living inland from Weston s Mare I am always amused when web sites tell me that the nearest X is in Cardiff or Penarth.
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« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2019, 22:12:21 »

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So - how should we define the catchment area around a public transport access point?  How do we estimate abstraction of traffic from one access point by a proposed new one?  How do we correlate market penetration of an access point based on the frequency and desired destiantion of the services that do or will call there?

Euclid or rivers are the least of your problems, as the catchment size is very dependent upon the type of service provided. In fact, if you have a mix of destinations from a station, you will have different catchment sizes for each destination! Chippenham is likely to be a fair example of this people will drive quite a long way to catch a train to London, but for trips to Bath most travellers are likely to start within walking distance of the station.

This can be measured using a good OD survey at the station. For predicting what would happen with a new station, you could look for a suitable analogue: a station in similar circumstances.

Of course, if you have access to big funds, you can use a multi-modal travel model; however this will not necessarily make more accurate predictions.

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grahame
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2019, 02:07:47 »

Euclid or rivers are the least of your problems, as the catchment size is very dependent upon the type of service provided. In fact, if you have a mix of destinations from a station, you will have different catchment sizes for each destination! Chippenham is likely to be a fair example of this people will drive quite a long way to catch a train to London, but for trips to Bath most travellers are likely to start within walking distance of the station.

Very interesting when you think about it ... passengers originating in Corsham are likely to use Chippenham for journeys to London and perhaps to Swindon but not for Bath or Bristol.  Passengers originating in Calne are likely to use Chippenham for Bristol (and I suspect Bath) but not for Swindon or London.
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2019, 08:48:35 »

Looking at Bridport, we have stations at Axminster, Crewkerne, Dorchester and Maiden Newton, all are around 25 minutes away.
Axminster has a half hourly bus service and Dorchester an hourly one, there is also an hourly service to Weymouth. Crewkerne can be reached by bus but, due to recent funding issues, you normally have to change at Beaminster( and again at Crewkerne for Yeovil). There are no late evening services.
The train service on the West of England line is hourly while that from Dorchester is half hourly.
Car parking is limited at Crewkerne by 10 am, while Axminster has a larger car park.
I would presume modelling of passenger flows from Bridport would need to take these factors into account.
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2019, 10:57:25 »

Looking at Bridport, we have stations at Axminster, Crewkerne, Dorchester and Maiden Newton, all are around 25 minutes away.
Axminster has a half hourly bus service and Dorchester an hourly one, there is also an hourly service to Weymouth. Crewkerne can be reached by bus but, due to recent funding issues, you normally have to change at Beaminster( and again at Crewkerne for Yeovil). There are no late evening services.
The train service on the West of England line is hourly while that from Dorchester is half hourly.
Car parking is limited at Crewkerne by 10 am, while Axminster has a larger car park.
I would presume modelling of passenger flows from Bridport would need to take these factors into account.
To add to this, Axminster is now hourly (since September 2017), Dorchester and Weymouth can best be described as basically hourly with some gaps. Thewre are no winter Sunday services. The Crewkerne service is Mondays to Fridays only.
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2019, 15:33:28 »

There is a Saturday bus: CB3 with three Crewkerne trips

https://bustimes.org/services/swe_42-cb3-_-y10

Sorry, I should have said that was the summer service to which I referred. The X51/53 does become half hourly during the summer months between Bridport and Axminster.
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2019, 16:06:16 »

Catchment is also going to vary hugely according to individual passenger. The elderly, disabled, parents with small children are not going to walk as far as the young and fit. I suspect they're also not going to drive very far in order to access a train but are more likely to eg drive to London than to the station, compared to those y&f.
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2019, 15:40:10 »

The DfT» (Department for Transport - about) travel times and accessibility data do not have any splits by age.

If you believe geodemographics/segmentation, like MOSAIC, DfT did a segmentation some years ago. As you would expect this tends to be skewed towards car use. Apart from one report https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-and-transport-choices-segmentation-update most of the related material appears to have disappeared. There is some "raw" data on data.gov in SPSS format. When I did some work with it I managed to get a .csv file.
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