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Author Topic: Crossrail - a new railway for London  (Read 39672 times)
grahame
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« Reply #165 on: February 13, 2022, 09:56:42 am »

I think that's as much to do with birth patterns a century ago too, in that the post war baby boom was very short lived, so the columns below 100 are already drifting back downwards after the sudden spike.  I can't seem to post an image, but there's a chart in the link you posted where you can see the spike.

I'm not sure if this is the chart - but I have hosted it, and it does show the pattern change
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Celestial
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« Reply #166 on: February 13, 2022, 10:07:12 am »

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/ageing/bulletins/estimatesoftheveryoldincludingcentenarians/2002to2020

No sorry , I meant Figure 3 here, which you can see how births drifted down during the war, shot up immediately afterwards, and quickly drifted back down again.
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grahame
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« Reply #167 on: February 13, 2022, 10:39:01 am »

No sorry , I meant Figure 3 here, which you can see how births drifted down during the war, shot up immediately afterwards, and quickly drifted back down again.

This one then  Grin :

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Celestial
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« Reply #168 on: February 13, 2022, 10:47:50 am »

Yes, thank you! And of course, 1918 to 20 was also the period of the Spanish Flu pandemic, just to give a parallel with modern times.

Sorry, we've drifted a bit off Crossrail haven't we...
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stuving
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« Reply #169 on: February 13, 2022, 11:30:24 am »

If you want to know the expected future survival rates of old ladies you should look at a life table, which shows that directly. ONS» (Office for National Statistics - website) has three-year average tables for the whole population, for download from this page.

The latest table is for 2018-2020, and gives numbers per 100,00 live births. This is the bottom right-hand bit of the table (women now aged 95 -99; there are no annual data for age 100 and over):

age     mx     qx     lx   dx   ex
95 0.2601770.23022712458.8 2868.4  3.06
960.289863  0.253171    9590.5    2428.0  2.83
970.3227980.277939  7162.4 1990.7  2.62
980.3524560.299649  5171.7 1549.7  2.43
990.3808250.319910   3622.0 1158.7  2.26

The columns show (using standard life table notation) probabilities as number, and population numbers per 100,000:
age  exact years at the start of each year of age
mx   central mortality rate - number of deaths from 'age' to 'age'+1 divided by the average population during that year
qx    mortality rate - number of deaths from 'age' to 'age'+1 divided by the population at 'age'
lx     survivors - how many of 100,000 live births would be still alive at exact 'age' based on qx in this table
dx    is the difference in lx: the number of the original 100,000 dying at 'age' to 'age'+1
ex    is the period life expectancy - how many years of life there are on average at 'age'

These are worked out for each year's population data and then averaged over the three years 2018-2020.
These are population figures - based on all the people alive at the same time born over a long period, not cohort figures - based on those born at the same time, reaching any given age in different years.

So for 100 97-year old women, of average health for the country as a whole, 28 will not reach age 98. They will on average live 2.62 years, and have a less than evens chance of reaching 100.
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Celestial
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« Reply #170 on: February 13, 2022, 12:43:10 pm »

Thank you, (although that looks very complicated - I think I'm going to be out of my depth if this conversation continues!)
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Ralph Ayres
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« Reply #171 on: February 13, 2022, 10:28:21 pm »

Just one small correction - it's Operation London Bridge; I have to hand the plans for church bellringing at the relevant time.  The name did lead to some double-takes in the rail industry a few years back when London Bridge station was redeveloped.

The change of name from Crossrail to the Elizabeth line incidentally has also caused some difficulty with terminology, sprung as it was on all but a select few who were presumably in the know before it was revealed.  The two terms can't always just be swapped by cut-and-paste, and the new name doesn't lend itself to abbreviating in a dignified manner where space is limited.  It's also far from clear why there is to be a separate Elizabeth line roundel outside stations it serves when Victoria line stations for instance just have a generic "Underground" roundel.
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CyclingSid
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« Reply #172 on: February 14, 2022, 07:15:41 am »

I see a significant reduction of numbers in nearly every year in 2020 - the effect of Coronavirus, I would suggest.

Might be worth looking at Excess Deaths https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/excessdeathsinenglandandwales2020final

There are some FoI responses for 2021 figures https://www.ons.gov.uk/search?q=Excess+deaths

Further detail at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-weekly-reports
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IndustryInsider
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« Reply #173 on: February 24, 2022, 02:45:51 pm »

A good set of tweets from someone involved in one of the recent mass evacuation test exercises:

https://twitter.com/omari_antony/status/1494989982540390403?t=PWMpGLJhVYUWUxxldQuGig&s=19
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CyclingSid
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« Reply #174 on: March 14, 2022, 10:13:33 am »

Sorry this is a drop and run
https://twitter.com/MrTimDunn/status/1503051135317381131?cxt=HHwWlsC4_ejC9NspAAAA
but I am a bit busy
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stuving
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« Reply #175 on: April 27, 2022, 11:26:15 pm »

Another step towards full rate operations is being tried on Sunday: a whole day of 20 tph (or twelve hours, anyway). The schedule is 3 minute intervals all day, which sounds more demanding than 2.5 minutes with a recovery gap every half hour.

Of each hour's trains, ten will turn at Westbourne Park, four at Old Oak Common, four at West Ealing sidings, and two at Hayes and Harlington. So it might be worth a look to see how they are doing, on one of the signalling maps if you are not going to be close to Westbourne Park.
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« Reply #176 on: April 28, 2022, 07:56:26 am »

It’ll be interesting to see how it goes.  I shall take a peek at the signalmaps site at some point during the day for a gander.
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broadgage
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« Reply #177 on: April 28, 2022, 11:43:38 am »

I expect that trial running will go reasonably well.
The real and much more severe test will be how well the system survives contact with real passengers.
Some of whom will be drunk, stupid or otherwise NFTT.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
Red Squirrel
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« Reply #178 on: April 28, 2022, 02:01:07 pm »

I have renamed this thread in anticipation of imminent opening!
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Bmblbzzz
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« Reply #179 on: April 28, 2022, 03:47:26 pm »

Yes, thank you! And of course, 1918 to 20 was also the period of the Spanish Flu pandemic, just to give a parallel with modern times.

Sorry, we've drifted a bit off Crossrail haven't we...
Not so much drifted as jumped right over the tracks! Very interesting though.
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