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Author Topic: Stonehouse (Bristol Road) - re-opening of station?  (Read 7493 times)
grahame
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« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2019, 09:28:35 »

Having posted above about the very real issue of people needing to be sure of a (bus or train) service before they arrange their daily life around it, I had only a couple of hours to wait before a bus cut story (from Lancashire) came up on my screen.

Quote
Passengers across large swathes of the borough could be cut off in the New Year after it was announced unprofitable local bus services will be axed.

Rosso have terminated their operating contracts on the Lancashire County Council-controlled 7, 8, 11, 12 and 13 local routes from January 2020.

While some of the scrapped routes are expected to be re-tendered in some form by LCC - including statutory home-to-school transport provision - the cuts could leave villages without bus access.

Even where we had a three YEAR trial on the TransWilts service from December 2013,  we had a memorable number of objections raised with us from people who said they would not use it as they needed a dependable travel capability around which to plan their lives.
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Richard Fairhurst
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« Reply #16 on: November 18, 2019, 10:20:54 »

I don't believe that a bus service would test the demand in both directions.   If a service thrived, good - proof for Bristol Road though I'm sure we would be asked whether the station was then needed.  But actually it would be only testing one of the flows, with an interchange hurdle that would put off most people even if it operated well, cheaply and at the right time.  So if it failed it really would not provide evidence against the station.

Fully agree.

There was for many years a connecting bus service from Corby to Kettering station. I can't find any passenger numbers for it online, but I used it a couple of times (I used to live a short way north of Corby) and I'd usually be the only passenger on it.

Corby station has now reopened, and it's doing a very respectable 300k passengers per year. But you wouldn't have reopened it going by the bus passenger numbers alone.

Noggin's idea of an Oxford Parkway-style P&R (Park and Ride) is a very interesting one. There are large parts of southern Gloucester (Quedgeley, Hardwicke etc.) where a quick drive along the M5 for one junction would be a more appealing journey than hacking through Gloucester traffic to get to the city centre station.
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Celestial
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« Reply #17 on: November 18, 2019, 10:49:18 »

I was impressed with both Robert's depth of study of issues;  issues raised by Bmblbzzz, by mjones and by Robin Summerhill are all noted.  
Obviously my minor contribution wasn't noted, so I'll be a bit more controversial this time.

If the £20m or so that seems to be needed for a station these days is available for a station in the area, then I'd suggest Quedgeley has a much stronger case.  The town, (when added to adjacent Hardwicke), has a population of over 30,000*, which is around four times that of Stonehouse (and indeed, dare I say it, 50% more than Melksham).  So why build a second station for a small population when you can build a first one for a much greater population. Sound like a much better use of money to me.

Moreover, a large part of Quedgeley's population is within a 15 minute walk of the railway, and so wouldn't even need parking. The rest would have the option of a short cycle which should be encouraged.  A station here could be served by trains to Swindon as well as Bristol, and passenger numbers could in time enable a more frequent service on both routes to be justified.  It would also serve Cheltenham as well. So much more likely to be well used.

It would also serve as a better interchange from passengers from Stroud to the Bristol line than walking between stations at Stonehouse, so if the timings were aligned, could be useful there (though if the services are only hourly then I guess that would be unlikely).  Still better than a walk between stations though.

I expect there will be push back that both stations are needed, and we shouldn't have to choose.  But that's not how it works in the real world, and so if there is £20m still stuffed down some politician's back pocket after the election that hasn't mysteriously evaporated like it usually does, then I think Quedgeley would be a much better use for it.   

* It has rocketed since the 2011 census, due to infill between the A38 and railway line - bringing the population distribution much closer to the railway.
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grahame
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« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2019, 12:15:06 »

I was impressed with both Robert's depth of study of issues;  issues raised by Bmblbzzz, by mjones and by Robin Summerhill are all noted.  
Obviously my minor contribution wasn't noted, so I'll be a bit more controversial this time.

It was - but quite a way back and I was answering to very recent contributions

An intermediate station about halfway along the 12km from Standish Junction to Gloucester, and on the main line rather than the branch into Gloucester is, agreed, yet another possibility - something new and something borrowed from a couple of the other options too.

Quote
If the £20m or so that seems to be needed for a station these days is available for a station in the area, then I'd suggest Quedgeley has a much stronger case.  The town, (when added to adjacent Hardwicke), has a population of over 30,000*, which is around four times that of Stonehouse (and indeed, dare I say it, 50% more than Melksham).  So why build a second station for a small population when you can build a first one for a much greater population. Sound like a much better use of money to me.

It all really needs looking at quite widely, doesn't it?  Thus all the ideas listed; I sense there'e a good case for Stonehouse (Bristol Road), but there may be other alternative cases around which are better - and we're at that point of option selection that you have whether you use GRIP (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) or JFDI (just flipping do it (polite version)).

Quote
Build Principles

JFDI - Just Do It principles - as proposed
1. Work out what you want to do
2. Work out how you can do it using established technology and resources
3. Think about what else it would do or enable
4. Ask yourself and informed others the questions (with a cutoff date):
-a are these outcome that we want?
-b will it work?
-c is there a (much) better way?
-d are there any show-stoppers?
-e does it muck up anything else?
If outcome of 4 doesn't throw up any problems
5. Work out who's going to lead the capital works and have them do it
6. Work out who's going to operate and who's going to maintain, and have them do it
7. Help promote, market, and tune the project and its planned outcomes
8. Pass on the completed project to the long term custodians
JFDI principles have been previously used in rail station construction - for example Workington North

GRIP - Guide to Rail Investment Process - rail alternative for larger projects
1. Define the output for the project. For example, connect new terminal.
2. Define the scope of the investment and identify constraints. Confirm that the outputs can be economically delivered and aligned with network strategy.
3. Develops options for addressing constraints. Assesses and selects the most appropriate option that delivers the stakeholder requirements together with confirmation that the outputs can be economically delivered.
4. Initiation of the development of the chosen single option.
5. Produces a complete, robust engineering design that underpins definitive cost / time / resource and risk estimates.
6. Delivery to the specification and testing to confirm operation in accordance with design
7. Transfer asset responsibility from the project team to the operator and maintainer.
8. Closeout in an orderly manner. Contractual accounts are settled and any contingencies or warranties are put into place. Assessment of benefits is carried out.

I will pick up on your population comparison.  I suggest you need to look at the contiguous built up area within walking and cycling distance of the station.  I'll take your word that Quedgeley (17,500) when added to Hardwicke is 30,000 and growing; Melksham Town (15,000) added to Melksham Without which surrounds it like a doughnut was just shy of 23,000 in the 2011 census with the boundaries (like some we are discussing elsewhere about Reading) running between and even through houses.   Current guestimate - 29,500 and they're still building.  So not sure where your "50% more" comes from.

Quote
Moreover, a large part of Quedgeley's population is within a 15 minute walk of the railway, and so wouldn't even need parking. The rest would have the option of a short cycle which should be encouraged.  A station here could be served by trains to Swindon as well as Bristol, and passenger numbers could in time enable a more frequent service on both routes to be justified.  It would also serve Cheltenham as well. So much more likely to be well used.


Key / excellent points.  In practise, for most stations the walking distance is the key.

Quote
It would also serve as a better interchange from passengers from Stroud to the Bristol line than walking between stations at Stonehouse, so if the timings were aligned, could be useful there (though if the services are only hourly then I guess that would be unlikely).  Still better than a walk between stations though.

I expect there will be push back that both stations are needed, and we shouldn't have to choose.  But that's not how it works in the real world, and so if there is £20m still stuffed down some politician's back pocket after the election that hasn't mysteriously evaporated like it usually does, then I think Quedgeley would be a much better use for it. 

* It has rocketed since the 2011 census, due to infill between the A38 and railway line - bringing the population distribution much closer to the railway.

Maybe ... one of the members of the audience on Saturday said (I think) that the local transport plan for (?) Gloucestershire is being updated - consultation ending just before Christmas - and that's really where the options / needs / tradeoffs for all the various travel requirements now and into the future need to be aired.  Mind you, a consultation could be an early one - "we want your ideas" or a later one - "this is what we think, please give us your blessing".   If it's the latter, the ship is already untied and ready to go - it may even have sailed!
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Richard Fairhurst
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« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2019, 12:38:17 »

I expect there will be push back that both stations are needed, and we shouldn't have to choose.  But that's not how it works in the real world, and so if there is £20m still stuffed down some politician's back pocket after the election that hasn't mysteriously evaporated like it usually does, then I think Quedgeley would be a much better use for it.   

And that's a wider question - why does it cost so much to build a new station?

£13m seems to be the going rate for a simple two-platform station. That's the figure for Marsh Barton, Kenilworth, and Maghull North.

But then the temporary station at Workington North cost £300k, while the no-frills tiny platform at Beauly was £250k, and nearby Conon Bridge £600k.

There is clearly a middle ground to be found. If the railways are going to be an election issue, and both the Conservatives' "Reverse Beeching Fund" and Labour's pledge of renationalisation suggest they might be, then it would be sensible to look at how effectively the money is spent, not just how much money is thrown at the railways.
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Celestial
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« Reply #20 on: November 18, 2019, 13:11:05 »


I will pick up on your population comparison.  I suggest you need to look at the contiguous built up area within walking and cycling distance of the station.  I'll take your word that Quedgeley (17,500) when added to Hardwicke is 30,000 and growing; Melksham Town (15,000) added to Melksham Without which surrounds it like a doughnut was just shy of 23,000 in the 2011 census with the boundaries (like some we are discussing elsewhere about Reading) running between and even through houses.   Current guestimate - 29,500 and they're still building.  So not sure where your "50% more" comes from.

It was based on a quote from the following link
https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/whats-name-quedgeley-parish-council-35996
in particular Quedgeley Parish Council will become a town council, after councillors voted to make the change last night.
The area has a population of around 26,000 people, making it larger than many towns in the county.

Added to which Hardwicke is around 4,000 more, and that quote is 2 1/2 years out of date, so at current rate of growth it is going to be more than 30,000.
All this population is within 2.5km of a potential station site, so for the majority will be walkable, and for the rest, a 5-10 minute cycle ride. I'll admit I was using the Melksham Town figure and adding a bit for growth, so ignored the doughnut around it. (In fact I didn't even realise the doughnut existed.) I probably shouldn't have been provocative in making the comparison, so best not to let any argument dilute the message of Quedgeley's need for a station.

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Bmblbzzz
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« Reply #21 on: November 18, 2019, 13:43:35 »

I'm not entirely sure I understand what Noggin's Parkway idea is. It seems to make sense, to have a station that could attract traffic from south Gloucester via the M5 as well as Stonehouse and Stroud via the A419, and of course this station could and should (but would?) be easily served by bus as well. But the logical place for this station, where the line crosses the A419, is almost where Bristol Rd was. So the restrictions of surrounding development preventing much car parking would apply. But I note it's specifically Oxford Parkway; is there something special about Oxford Parkway (there might well be and I wouldn't be aware of it)?

I'm also a little confused by the reference to S-Bahn. To me that means Stadtbahn, so urban rail serving districts of a large city, like Berlin, Cologne or Birmingham. But that's very different to the situation in Stonehouse! And if the S means Schnell, fast, then are we looking at XCountry services stopping here on their way between Bristol and Birmingham? I can't quite see that happening either! After that my German is stumped, sorry, leaving me  Huh.
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grahame
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« Reply #22 on: November 18, 2019, 18:54:22 »

See http://www.passenger.chat/22465 - I've made wider comment on passenger services on the corridor.

Happy (Celestial) to revisit the Melksham population thing.  Not the first time and won't be the last.  We have learned to use it to our advantage  Grin
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« Reply #23 on: November 19, 2019, 21:34:39 »

I'm not entirely sure I understand what Noggin's Parkway idea is. It seems to make sense, to have a station that could attract traffic from south Gloucester via the M5 as well as Stonehouse and Stroud via the A419, and of course this station could and should (but would?) be easily served by bus as well. But the logical place for this station, where the line crosses the A419, is almost where Bristol Rd was. So the restrictions of surrounding development preventing much car parking would apply. But I note it's specifically Oxford Parkway; is there something special about Oxford Parkway (there might well be and I wouldn't be aware of it)?

I'm also a little confused by the reference to S-Bahn. To me that means Stadtbahn, so urban rail serving districts of a large city, like Berlin, Cologne or Birmingham. But that's very different to the situation in Stonehouse! And if the S means Schnell, fast, then are we looking at XCountry services stopping here on their way between Bristol and Birmingham? I can't quite see that happening either! After that my German is stumped, sorry, leaving me  Huh.

Sorry if I wasn't clear, and perhaps a station next to the A419 isn't quite as straightforward as it appears from the maps.

As I understand it, Oxford Parkway was designed to be a railhead for the Cotswolds - somewhere people could drive in comfort from home, then decant to a train for a rail leg of their commute. It seems to me that there could well be a similar market who could be tempted from their cars if there were somewhere they could drive to, grab a coffee then catch up on their emails as they go to an office in Bristol, Birmingham, or somewhere inbetween.

As for S-Bahn, I mean a 15 to 30-minute interval regional rail service that forms part of a well-defined metro network. I was thinking of Bristol to Gloucester/Cheltenham as part of a wider Bristol/Newport/Cardiff-centric network. 
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Robin Summerhill
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« Reply #24 on: November 20, 2019, 11:58:42 »

Well, my suggestion for a bus connection to Cam & Dursley as a quick fix appears to have been shot down in flames, but it appears to me that some of the arguments put against it don't stand up to too much scrutiny Smiley


Quote from: noggin
As I understand it, Oxford Parkway was designed to be a railhead for the Cotswolds - somewhere people could drive in comfort from home, then decant to a train for a rail leg of their commute. It seems to me that there could well be a similar market who could be tempted from their cars if there were somewhere they could drive to, grab a coffee then catch up on their emails as they go to an office in Bristol, Birmingham, or somewhere inbetween.

This seems to presuppose two things. Firstly that XC (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) trains would stop at Stonehouse which I suspect would not be the case (if it was the case, then why don't they bother with equally large catchment areas such as Yate, Ashchurch or Bromsgrove), and scondly that there is no P&R (Park and Ride) facility in the area at the moment, whilst there is - at Cam & Dursley. OK I accept that there are local issues at the station with the car park being too small to accommodate the potential demand, leading to people parking on the surrounding lanes, but that is a different issue which could have its own solutions.

Quote from: Richard Fairhurst
Quote from: grahame
I don't believe that a bus service would test the demand in both directions.   If a service thrived, good - proof for Bristol Road though I'm sure we would be asked whether the station was then needed.  But actually it would be only testing one of the flows, with an interchange hurdle that would put off most people even if it operated well, cheaply and at the right time.  So if it failed it really would not provide evidence against the station.

Fully agree.

There was for many years a connecting bus service from Corby to Kettering station. I can't find any passenger numbers for it online, but I used it a couple of times (I used to live a short way north of Corby) and I'd usually be the only passenger on it.

Corby station has now reopened, and it's doing a very respectable 300k passengers per year. But you wouldn't have reopened it going by the bus passenger numbers alone.

I take the point about Corby, but I did say in my original post that a bus connection service to Cam & Dursley could be operating within days if there was a will to do it. Could Stonehouse Bristol Road station be reopened in the same timeframe? Daft question really, isn't it Grin

If there was a latent existing demand a bus service would test it. What the future might bring would be something else entirely

Quote
In practise, for most stations the walking distance is the key.

If thie had said "some stations" I may have agreed with it, but "most stations" is, in my view, utter nonsense. It certainly might be the case in leafy suburbia, it almost certainly is the case in  large urban areas, but when you get into small (ish) market town country such as Stroud, Stomehouse, or places like Chippenham, Melksham or Trowbridge, the expansion of these towns into green field sites over the last 70-odd years means that not much of them are actually within a reasonable walking distance of their stations. Of course, "reasonable" in this context is very subjective and, whilst the more fit and agile may think nothing of a 30-minute walk to their closest station, there are many others that would baulk at anything over 10 minutes. I also recall getting into a verbal spat with Graham on here about the lack of a pavement on the easten approach to Melksham station making the walking distance from the Beanacre Road end of town longer than it could be! This is of course why we build car parks at stations and we also, let us not forget, bleat incessantly on from individuals up to national government levels about bus/ rail coordination and integration. Yet in this case, apparently, we don't want a bus from Stonehouse to Cam & Dursley.

I have used Cam and Dursley station on a few occasions in recent years, and I would suggest that the number of people who live within a reasonable walking distance of it are very few - nobody living in Dursley "proper" does and neither do most of the residents of Cam. The station is in the middle of Gloucestershire countryside. And also, let us not forget, Bristol Parkway was surrounded by green fields when it opened in 1971 or whichever year it was (haven't looked it up!). I wonder how many people walked to that station back then or indeed, as a proportion of the total footfall, how many do now?
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Bmblbzzz
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« Reply #25 on: November 20, 2019, 12:38:50 »

I expect there will be push back that both stations are needed, and we shouldn't have to choose.  But that's not how it works in the real world, and so if there is £20m still stuffed down some politician's back pocket after the election that hasn't mysteriously evaporated like it usually does, then I think Quedgeley would be a much better use for it.   
While the argument for Quedgeley as higher priority than Stonehouse Bristol Road seems strong in terms of surrounding residents and access, and it has potential as a changing point for services to the Stroud Valleys if something clever is done with connections (but then so does Gloucester), they would be different passengers and a different area.

So yes, both stations are needed! Maybe one is needed more than the other... Either would be good. But I doubt we'll actually see any. But that shouldn't stop us talking about it/them!
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« Reply #26 on: November 20, 2019, 14:01:48 »

Sorry if you have, and I've missed it, but have you all read this? https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/travelwest/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/MW2-GlosCC-extension-report_2016-12-16.pdf
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« Reply #27 on: November 20, 2019, 14:28:17 »

That's really interesting.  Thank you.

It says (Table 7) that the highest BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) for a single station is for Hunts Grove (Quedgeley).  But two stations at Stonehouse Bristol Rd and Charfield would give a higher BCR, as the extra running cost for a second station seems low. 

However, they didn't test the BCR for Hunts Grove and Charfield, which presumably would be even higher, firstly because HG generates more revenue than Stonehouse BR (British Rail(ways)), and secondly because the sum of Stonehouse BR and Charfield is much less than the individuals presumably due to passengers choosing using whichever was built, but couldn't then use both.  I would have thought the effect of that on HG would be less, as it is a little further away to Stonehouse.

And good to see that they could all be built for my supposed £20m, at least until Network Rail gets a GRIP (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) on the process and triples the cost (see Portishead, Marsh Barton etc). 
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« Reply #28 on: November 20, 2019, 16:46:08 »

Comparing the coordinates given for Hunts Grove, I don't know if the location is what Noggin Celestial had in mind by Quedgeley, but it's not quite what I thought of. It's immediately north of the M5, somewhat south of the built up area of Quedegeley. There has been and continues to be a lot of residential development in the Naas area (the road heading east out of Quedgeley to Brookthorpe) but I was imagining something a bit further into the urban area, more in Tuffley I suppose. That, though would probably require clearing existing buildings at vast expense and disruption.

Anyway, isn't one of the reasons for Quedgeley/Hunts Grove having higher BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) that it gets trains on both Swindon and Bristol lines?

Edit: Celestial, not Noggin.
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Celestial
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« Reply #29 on: November 20, 2019, 17:34:31 »

I think I've been the strong advocate of Quedgeley, and agree the station is a smidge south of where I would have expected it to be, which is at the former Naas Lane crossing. 

Yes, having more trains will help the BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio), although the figures say that there are more people living within walking distance of the station (despite the above), which will obviously help too.
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