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Author Topic: Aberthaw Power Station and Decarbonisation  (Read 56317 times)
eightonedee
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« Reply #180 on: June 17, 2021, 18:57:41 »

Quote
I do not feel that a link from North Africa or the Middle East to the UK (United Kingdom) would be viable. The reasons are political and human rather than technological.
The places in question have a reputation for wars, coups, revolts, and violent regime changes, and for poor governance in general.
Whom is going to invest billions in a scheme that it is liable to destruction in the next war, or to confiscation by the next regime.
Australia by contrast looks safe and stable.

Hmmm- we are emerging from a prolonged period when off and on we have been reliant on nations around the Persian Gulf (hardly a centre for peace and stability in recent decades) for a substantial proportion of our energy needs. A cable from Australia to Singapore runs past Indonesia (a nation riven by ethnic and religious divisions) and under seas, the control of which China is seeking to assert.

Morocco (the country I mentioned) may not be a model of democratic open government, but has managed to survive without violent regime change since independence in 1956. With a back up supply of geothermal from Iceland, is it so daft? We might also if we cooperate sensibly with the French and Spanish be able to share the cost and benefit too.
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broadgage
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« Reply #181 on: June 17, 2021, 19:17:53 »

Our reliance on oil from the Middle East is indeed grounds for concern, but at least oil can be stored against shortages. Electricity can not be stored affordably on a large scale.
My concerns were not primarily about the risks of Saharan electricity being interrupted, my concern is that the scheme will never be built, due to potential investors fearing loss by war, riot, coup, revolt, or confiscation.

Some imports of fossil fuels will probably be unavoidable for many years yet, but we should seek to reduce these imports for at least three reasons.
Firstly we should be reducing fossil fuel use due to concerns about climate change.
Secondly we should avoid becoming reliant on imports that are vulnerable to events outside our control.
And finally we should be supporting our own economy by producing more renewable energy within our borders employing UK (United Kingdom) workers and suppliers.

Some imports of electricity via existing and planned submarine cables are inevitable, but we should avoid becoming unduly reliant on other nations. At the very least we should aim to export at least as much electricity as we import, averaged over a year.
The UK has plenty of wind, and it seems very shortsighted for a nation with so much wind power to be a net importer of electricity.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
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A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
TonyK
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« Reply #182 on: June 22, 2021, 14:32:19 »

Our reliance on oil from the Middle East is indeed grounds for concern, but at least oil can be stored against shortages. Electricity can not be stored affordably on a large scale.
My concerns were not primarily about the risks of Saharan electricity being interrupted, my concern is that the scheme will never be built, due to potential investors fearing loss by war, riot, coup, revolt, or confiscation.

Some imports of fossil fuels will probably be unavoidable for many years yet, but we should seek to reduce these imports for at least three reasons.
Firstly we should be reducing fossil fuel use due to concerns about climate change.
Secondly we should avoid becoming reliant on imports that are vulnerable to events outside our control.
And finally we should be supporting our own economy by producing more renewable energy within our borders employing UK (United Kingdom) workers and suppliers.

Some imports of electricity via existing and planned submarine cables are inevitable, but we should avoid becoming unduly reliant on other nations. At the very least we should aim to export at least as much electricity as we import, averaged over a year.
The UK has plenty of wind, and it seems very shortsighted for a nation with so much wind power to be a net importer of electricity.

Oil isn't stored in large quantities, though, it's almost a "just in time" commodity. Tankers leave port full, not always with a final destination in mind. Those that do plot a course to a certain place can be diverted en route to reflect currency changes or renewed bidding. A tanker leaving the Gulf has a long journey to our own refineries, and can easily change course for Rotterdam a day before arriving. As the shortages after the fuel depot blockades show us, oil comes in by tanker to refinery, leaves shortly afterwards in its different forms for fuel stations, and the whole lot including the tanker is a part of the storage. Stop oil coming in, and we would be without fuel in under a fortnight.

We can't store wind, either, even if it does blow consistently. We have over 24 GW (Great Western) of installed wind power, currently providing 4.5 GW, and that on a breezy day. It doesn't matter how much we have, it can't be relied upon.
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GBM
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« Reply #183 on: June 22, 2021, 14:39:51 »


Oil isn't stored in large quantities, though, it's almost a "just in time" commodity. Tankers leave port full, not always with a final destination in mind. Those that do plot a course to a certain place can be diverted en route to reflect currency changes or renewed bidding. A tanker leaving the Gulf has a long journey to our own refineries, and can easily change course for Rotterdam a day before arriving. As the shortages after the fuel depot blockades show us, oil comes in by tanker to refinery, leaves shortly afterwards in its different forms for fuel stations, and the whole lot including the tanker is a part of the storage......
Several years ago, when on tankers, we would discharge to a refinery, then backload the same cargo, then discharge to a different storage tank at the same refinery.
It was because that cargo was sold, then resold, and often sold on again within a few days!
It was also a tax 'thing' at the time as well.

As TonyK says, we would be bound for 'Landsend for orders' and enroute frequently diverted to somewhere else.
On rare occasions we would take a pilot for the final port, only for that port to be cancelled and we would turn around (after dropping the pilot off!) and head somewhere else.
The very large crude oil tankers are also used for oil storage, in that they load for a port and are asked to steam at around 10knots to a port, so taking much longer to arrive.
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #184 on: June 22, 2021, 18:11:05 »

We have over 24 GW (Great Western) of installed wind power, currently providing 4.5 GW, and that on a breezy day. It doesn't matter how much we have, it can't be relied upon.

According to UK (United Kingdom) government figures, in 2019 the UK had, as you say, 24GW of installed wind power capacity. 14.2GW of this was onshore, and 9.8GW offshore. The load factors reported for this period were 26.5% for onshore, and 40.5% for offshore, so on average the offshore turbines are producing around 3.97GW, and the onshore ones 3.76GW. Which, if my arithmetic can be trusted, is a total of 7.73GW on average; it would be rather more than that on a good breezy day.

Where did the figure of 4.5GW come from?

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« Reply #185 on: June 22, 2021, 18:30:40 »

We have over 24 GW (Great Western) of installed wind power, currently providing 4.5 GW, and that on a breezy day. It doesn't matter how much we have, it can't be relied upon.

According to UK (United Kingdom) government figures, in 2019 the UK had, as you say, 24GW of installed wind power capacity. 14.2GW of this was onshore, and 9.8GW offshore. The load factors reported for this period were 26.5% for onshore, and 40.5% for offshore, so on average the offshore turbines are producing around 3.97GW, and the onshore ones 3.76GW. Which, if my arithmetic can be trusted, is a total of 7.73GW on average; it would be rather more than that on a good breezy day.

Where did the figure of 4.5GW come from?



The Gridwatch web site (https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/) shows the current state of generation.. It has wind at 4.61Gw (13.19% of generated electricity).  Gas is 39%, European imports are 13% and coal is 2%
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TonyK
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« Reply #186 on: June 22, 2021, 18:53:02 »


Where did the figure of 4.5GW come from?


That Gridwatch site you recommended to me.

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« Reply #187 on: June 22, 2021, 19:11:18 »

UK (United Kingdom) wind power varies from a low of about 0.5 Gw up to a maximum of about 14 Gw.
For most of the last 24 hours it has been about 5 Gw.

5 Gw is certainly useful in reducing our reliance on imported natural gas and reducing carbon emissions from gas burning. I would support at least doubling our wind power capacity, we would still need gas but reliance on gas would be reduced.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
TonyK
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« Reply #188 on: June 22, 2021, 19:24:55 »

UK (United Kingdom) wind power varies from a low of about 0.5 Gw up to a maximum of about 14 Gw.
For most of the last 24 hours it has been about 5 Gw.

5 Gw is certainly useful in reducing our reliance on imported natural gas and reducing carbon emissions from gas burning. I would support at least doubling our wind power capacity, we would still need gas but reliance on gas would be reduced.

Last year, according to the service recommended to me by Red Squirrel, wind hit a maximum of 13.85 GW (Great Western), around what you said, and a minimum of 0.095 GW, about 1/50th of the figure you gave, with an average of 6.22 GW. If we double that, we will be able to turn the gas down slightly, although not enough to make any difference once we have filled all the electric vehicles. That will hopefully be offset by the lower use of petrol and diesel. I thought we were supposed to be doing away with fossil fuels rather than using less, or swapping oil products used for transport for gas to make electricity to fill batteries, but that is what is going to happen.
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broadgage
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« Reply #189 on: June 23, 2021, 07:51:39 »

This report gives a rather more optimistic view of UK (United Kingdom) wind power.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-57519392

I very much doubt that wind power will ever supply ALL our electricity, but do expect it to play a much larger part, together with solar.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
Bmblbzzz
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« Reply #190 on: June 23, 2021, 09:22:48 »

UK (United Kingdom) wind power varies from a low of about 0.5 Gw up to a maximum of about 14 Gw.
For most of the last 24 hours it has been about 5 Gw.

5 Gw is certainly useful in reducing our reliance on imported natural gas and reducing carbon emissions from gas burning. I would support at least doubling our wind power capacity, we would still need gas but reliance on gas would be reduced.

Last year, according to the service recommended to me by Red Squirrel, wind hit a maximum of 13.85 GW (Great Western), around what you said, and a minimum of 0.095 GW, about 1/50th of the figure you gave, with an average of 6.22 GW. If we double that, we will be able to turn the gas down slightly, although not enough to make any difference once we have filled all the electric vehicles. That will hopefully be offset by the lower use of petrol and diesel. I thought we were supposed to be doing away with fossil fuels rather than using less, or swapping oil products used for transport for gas to make electricity to fill batteries, but that is what is going to happen.
Note that petrol and diesel vehicles also need electricity as the refining process uses large amounts. Therefore each electric vehicle that replaces a petrol or diesel one doesn't simply add to the demand for electricity by the amount it uses, especially when you consider that electric motors are far more efficient at converting energy to motion than internal combustion ones are. But neither of course do they reduce the demand for petrol and diesel by the corresponding amount. I wouldn't dream of attempting the maths even if I had the full data. And in practice there is no substitution where the electric car is an additional vehicle not a replacement.
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TonyK
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« Reply #191 on: June 23, 2021, 09:34:02 »

This report gives a rather more optimistic view of UK (United Kingdom) wind power.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-57519392

I very much doubt that wind power will ever supply ALL our electricity, but do expect it to play a much larger part, together with solar.

It is a very optimistic report, although I couldn't help but see that in the final shot, the only blades moving were on the helicopter. The demise of coal is to be welcomed, but the reporter didn't mention the rise of CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) power stations, with more being built.

We're not really "decarbonising" at all, are we? We will still be generating electricity by gas in 20 years' time, when all these wind turbines will need replacing. Let's hope the Danes are still feeling as generous then.


Note that petrol and diesel vehicles also need electricity as the refining process uses large amounts. Therefore each electric vehicle that replaces a petrol or diesel one doesn't simply add to the demand for electricity by the amount it uses, especially when you consider that electric motors are far more efficient at converting energy to motion than internal combustion ones are. But neither of course do they reduce the demand for petrol and diesel by the corresponding amount. I wouldn't dream of attempting the maths even if I had the full data. And in practice there is no substitution where the electric car is an additional vehicle not a replacement.

That's interesting, and not something I had considered before. I found this report on the Government website which looked into the matter. I'll read it on my next quiet day, but the executive report suggests that the fuel used in refineries is primarily derived from the oil itself. It is our third highest source of greenhouse gases, so would be missed in a positive way. I'm not sure that we would gain any electricity from closing refineries though. Someone will know, and will help us out.

After broadgage sowed the seeds of doubt in my mind with his posting of the link to the BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)'s happy story about our new place in the world as the Saudi Arabi of wind power, I thought I would look how well things are going today. I chose my most flavoursome hat with some trepidation, then with trembling hand clicked on the website recommended to me by my learned friend Red Squirrel, who knows what's Watt. My hat is safe - coal is currently producing more electricity than our 24 GW (Great Western) fleet of Danish wind turbines. Solar is helping a bit, but today is yet another wonderful day for the sellers of gas.



Every time I start to believe that wind and solar power will save the day, this happens.
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #192 on: June 23, 2021, 12:49:04 »

That's why looking at the output averaged over the year is meaningful in almost exactly the way that occasional snapshots aren't.

If your are arguing, TonyK, that we should have built a whole load of nuclear power stations 20 years ago, I think I might agree with you. If you are arguing that we might be able to generate nuclear electricity using better technology in 10 or 20 or 30 years time, I'd probably agree with you again. But without the benefit of a viable (thorium powered?) time machine, neither solution is of the slightest use to us today. Wind turbines are quick, cheap and easy to roll out today. What else is there that we can deploy right now?
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« Reply #193 on: June 23, 2021, 13:29:21 »

Dungeness nuclear power station has now closed. Hunterston will be closed no latter than early next year. Hinckley point will be closing no later than July next year.
Those three power stations represent a not negligible loss of about 6% of UK (United Kingdom) maximum demand. I hope that sufficient alternatives are available.
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A proper intercity train has a minimum of 8 coaches, gangwayed throughout, with first at one end, and a full sized buffet car between first and standard.
It has space for cycles, surfboards,luggage etc.
A 5 car DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) is not a proper inter-city train. The 5+5 and 9 car DMUs are almost as bad.
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« Reply #194 on: June 23, 2021, 15:10:24 »

Hinkley C, with its 3.2GW capacity, will replace a number of smaller power stations as they go offline. The balance of nuclear power when they've shut and it has opened will be unchanged.
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