2020 Predictions

Those who remember my predictions for this year will be relieved to know that the defective prototype crystal ball I got from Wabtec has been returned to them for modifications to be carried out. This year those nice people at Vivarail have lent me one of their prototypes. Apparently it used to be a goldfish bowl in the reception at London Transport's offices at Kingsway. Let's see if it works better this year-

January In the New Year cabinet reshuffle Dominic (I almost typed "Demonic"!) Cummins appoints Jacob Rees-Mogg to be the new Secretary of State for Transport. His first act delights at least one forum member when he announces that all Inter City trains must have a restaurant coach serving three course hot meals (first course - choice of Brown Windsor or Mock Turtle Soup). The conversion of existing stock is to be funded by the Brexit bonus. Other members of the traveling public are less pleased as it now means that the IETs^▸ will have only 4 or 8 passenger coaches apiece after the conversion.

February The Williams Report arrives at last at DfT^» . Drawing on the experience of the airline industry, it proposes two tiers of rail travel. There would be "flag carrier" service - serving all main cities, with stewardess service to all seats, films and in-flight (?) magazines and executive lounges for first class passengers. There would be economy services for everyone else. To reduce overcrowding, these would run to underused stations about 30 miles away from the main cities, and would be basic services with all amenities (including carrying anything larger than a small briefcase, or using on-board toilets) charged extra. Apparently an Irish entrepreneur has already expressed an interest in bidding for this franchise.

DfT and ORR^» decide to quietly shelve it when the first two questions from the Secretary of State are "Who is Michael O'Leary?" and "What is Ryanair?"

March Go-op file their latest route proposal with ORR. It is for a service from Dilton Marsh to Appleford, possibly extending to Culham and Radley to run four times a day, to use hydrogen powered trains converted from surplus class 319s. The official at ORR who opens the envelope sighs, rolls his eyes and files it under the Williams Report in his in-tray.

Further delays to the introduction of class 769s results in further delays to the cascade of Turbos, so further extension of derogation for Pacers into 2021 announced.

April Secretary of State Rees-Mogg settles long-running strikes about driver operated doors after lengthy negotiations with RMT^▸ . The solution is that guards will operate doors for first class passengers only, and will be paid one guinea each time they open the doors for a first class passenger. They will however have to wear the new uniform designed by the Secretary of State himself - a frock coat and top hat.

The TOCs^▸ however predict chaos when timetables for May have to be revised to allow train doors to be opened for each first class passenger at each stop.

May Further derogations to retain Pacers on Northern services are allowed due to delays by CAF and Wabtec in delivering new trains. DfT and ORR write to Alexander Dennis, Mercedes Benz, Volvo and Scania to find out if they can put some of their buses on rail truck chassis to provide a stop-gap solution for the next 35 years. Wabtec offer to convert Pacers by installing disabled access toilets, but say they will only be able to start when they have finished the class 769 order, so the offer is politely declined.

June Demand for extra rolling stock and staff for specials for Glastonbury is met by suspending Trans-Wilts service resulting in thunderous reaction from Grahame and chorus of support from forum members. Proposal to name an IET "Michael Eavis" withdrawn after riots on the streets of Melksham.

July Safety panic in Scotland when a passenger falls asleep against a window on a cascaded HST^▸ and the weight of his head causes the window glass to push through the corroded window opening. All cascaded HSTs are withdrawn as a precaution and the cascade of 158s, 156s etc is reversed. A Scottish Government transport official is reprimanded for suggesting a thicker vinyl wrap might fix the problem.

August Trial of prototype solar powered train on the Looe branch suspended when the converted class 319 comes to a halt at St Keyne Wishing Well Halt when the sun goes in, and lineside trees in leaf means that there is insufficient sunlight to get it moving again.

Following further problems with their new Stadler bimode trains and the signalling system in Norfolk, Greater Anglia's request for some Pacers to cover them while further work is carried out is met by the response that none have yet become surplus to requirements.

September Secretary of State Rees-Mogg averts further industrial action when RMT threatens a strike over safety as first class guards keep having their top hats knocked off by street urchins. Rees-Mogg listens sympathetically to Mike Cash, telling him that exactly the same happened to him when he was at Eton, and agrees that they will be paid a guinea every time it happens.

October After TfL^» announces further delays to Crossrail/Elizabeth Line, responsibility for the service between Reading and Paddington is handed over to Reading Buses. Those hoping to see the heritage maroon and cream livery applied to the trains are disappointed however when trains for each different calling pattern on the timetable are painted a different colour.

November Class 769s finally arrive on the North Downs Line, but the service grinds to a halt on the first day when three trains all grind to a halt with wheel slip on gradients due to leaf fall rail head conditions. Stuving puts an "I told you so" post on the relevant thread on the Coffee Shop website.

December Chaos on introduction of new timetable caused by lack of rolling stock. No sign of any progress on Reading Green Park Station, although the timetable shows twice hourly service.

Secretary of State Rees-Mogg refuses to answer questions on the timetable chaos when he appears on television unveiling the first of the new names for IETs, named after the heroes of Brexit - the "Annunziata Rees-Mogg".