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Author Topic: Train crew shortages across the UK ... and a look forward in a crystal ball  (Read 806 times)
grahame
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« on: December 29, 2019, 07:40:10 »

Similar crew shortage problems today causing cancellations/fore-shortenings, to which are added an additional number of short formations from Penzance/Plymouth - Paddington (5 instead of 10), ensuring some extremely uncomfortable journeys.

Not that it is any consolation, but all the Great Northern trains from Kings Cross to Cambridge were also cancelled due to lack of train crews today, so its not just GWR (Great Western Railway). Did mean I got to experience a different route out of Liverpool Street with Greater Anglia, but thats not something I wish to repeat, the train was so old I was surprised it didn't fall apart on the way...

Shortage of crew seems endemic in the industry... as well as our own GW (Great Western) experience, you've got the ongoing Northern business at present, reports such as these from Great Northern and the linked franchises, issues I read about on TransPennine Express, and also South Western.   That's just from news feed headlines - so my lack of mentioning a franchise here doesn't mean it's got staff available to run virtually all its trains.

With a pattern like this... I have to wonder at the system.  Be they operating contracts or franchises, companies are encouraged to make competitive bids for service provision and to do so as cheaply as possible to the taxpayer and yet as profitably as possible for their shareholders.  And there are going to be backroom calculations going on about the cost of having an extra "n" staff versus cancelling "k" trains; much is likely to be based on optimistic bids to make the company's offer into the most attractive in the first place - and that may lead to franchises / contracts starting off on thin ice.  And you may see it suggested that there's an incentive for an incumbent front runner for a renewal / extension to let services slide so the extension will be sold to them more cheaply, and also not to invest to decent level for beyond the renewal date.   And there are now just 94 days left in GWR land in the current contract, with no announcement of what happens beyond.

First group at present has been in some turmoil and from other divisions there's evidence of cost cutting - with more to come, I would be pretty sure, very soon.  On a commercial bus service, there isn't a franchise / contract to require a minimum level of service and with 72 days notice such a service can be slashed to running only the runs which make money, or even an entire route should it be calculated that the slashing will impact remaining runs to the extent they will cease to be viable.  No safety net contract there; the local transport authority (such as our unitary council) can step in and provide a supported alternative, or indeed pay the original provider to keep on going, but budgets there are tight and the crossover that funds a service based on the wider economic value to the area is stretched to and beyond the limit, controlled for the most part by those lucky people who haven't had the need to ride a bus for decades.  I mentioned First... I've also seen comment that all is not sweet at Stagecoach either, but then that's the intent of the competitive system we have, isn't it?

Looking ahead - will it get better?  And the question has to be "better for who?".  Suggestions being floated are that a reorganisation of the railways might see services in mass population areas coming more and more under the control of their subNational bodies; elements of that already for urban areas such as Merseyside, Tyne and Wear, Transport for London... and Northern Powerhouse.  Also for Wales and Scotland where their devolved governments take a more active role.  I noted a BBC» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) report in the last couple of days on a treasury suggestion of rewriting a funding formula to ensure a better deal for "the North", talking about how London and the South East has perhaps done rather better than it should.   Talk of further devolution too.

So what might this mean for the South West?  More powers and perhaps money to the Bristol Mayor so that Tim Bowles and his team and successors can invest in even better public transport in the Bristol area.  Maybe a continuing bright region in Cornwall where many folks are effective in helping decent public transport.  But I really find myself a bit worried about where we'll be going for some very busy but unprofitable lines in the Wessex area up to Herefordshire and from Hampshire across to Devon.   Out of GWR area, similar concerns for less densely populated areas of East Anglia, Lincolnshire and even the north.

And what about services that run between the sNTB areas?  At a regional level, they need to work together (and as some of them may not even work well for public transport on their own, what chance of working well together?) and at a national level I see the idea of selling off time slots / paths to multiple operators on the same route.  Sounds a bit like Open Access but without the controls on abstraction from the network franchise.  Also sounds a bit like the bus model.

From Bristol to London you have "British Railways", "Virgin Railways", "Easy Train" and "Ryan Railways" each offering a service. Characterise each, if you like, along the name of the similar airline.  So as well as a Temple Meads - Bath Spa - Chippenham - Swindon - Reading - Paddington service at high peak prices (and note that certain weekends such as around the current time of year will be peak), you'll have a service Clifton Down -  Lawrence Hill - Oldfield Park - Trowbridge - Newbury - Reading West - Hayes and Harlington - Ealing Broadway - Kensington Olympia, with off commuter peak slots only, extra charges for seat reservations, luggage, and pay toilets.  Competing service will tend to run in "flights" due to line capacity issues .. somewhat reminiscent of 'bus wars' where 2 buses an hour still (in places) means a 2 minute gap and then a 58 minute gap, and with tickets routinely not transferrable between operators.

This has moved beyond "GWR crew shortage" ... time for a topic split?
Edit - split made from {{here}}
« Last Edit: December 29, 2019, 08:09:12 by grahame » Logged

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grahame
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« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2019, 12:25:16 »

A discussion on some of the wider funding issues has kicked off on our Facebook Page


Contributors there are also welcome to contribute here too ... where contributions will not rapidly disappear into the mists of time which to quickly envelop Facebook feeds.
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