Crystal ball - will coronavirus effect our travel (public and private)?

[whole diary]

[bradshaw]

This is a good explanation on why soap and water is better.

From Twitter yesterday


https://twitter.com/pallithordarson/status/1236549305189597189?s=21

[broadgage]

For Heaven's sake - SOAP AND WATER!

Agree, subject to availability. Soap and water is unlikely to be available on most public transport or outdoors.
In say an office, soap and water is probably only available in the toilets. After use of these facilities, how many surfaces and items will you touch en route to your desk? Toilet door ? office door ? intermediate doors ? lift buttons ? Hand sanitiser at your desk would be prudent as well as soap and water in the washroom.

In ones home, soap and water is preferable but remember to have a hand towel for each person, don't share them. Hot wash towels frequently.

In the workplace disposable paper towels are more hygienic, despite the environmental costs thereof. At home consider a box of paper towels in reserve in case circumstances prevent laundering of re-usable items.

[Marlburian]

It's somewhat unfortunate timing for the toilets opposite M & S at Reading Station to be closed until May for "improvements". After getting off my train this morning  I headed there for a wee (not really needed, but just in case) and to wash my hands. Not that the perfunctionary facilities there were very reassuring, with users often moving from one basin to another to "collect" all three functions: soap, water, air.

A notice did advise of the facilities on most (all?) platforms, which I normally find preferable, but I had to post some letters at the nearby mail-box so opted for the toilets by M & S.

[CyclingSid]

In case it hasn't appeared elsewhere: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51736185

[grahame]

In case it hasn't appeared elsewhere: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51736185

Also ... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51809318

1st article - risk of spread if you use public transport
2nd article - planes flying [nearly] empty as international travel drops .. to hold on to airport slots

It strikes me that the greenest way to travel is not to travel at all ... grieves me to think we may come out of "this" with some habit changes as people find they can work from home and don't need to travel so much.  But I do worry that people are going to be less concerned to drive around in private cars and we may see a boost for that less green way of getting around.

[stuving]

My impression is that the number of ads I get by e-mail from airlines and the like has gone up recently - but maybe it's the context that has made them look more forlornly desperate to get us to book future trips. But today I got ones from Air France and SNCF^▸ (Societe Nationale des Chemins de fer Francais - French National Railways) (trading as Oui.com) offering added flexibility as an inducement.

SNCF tickets are already pretty flexible, but now they are saying that for any date up to 31st April you can rebook or cancel for a full refund. Air France's offer is more limited in time, and only for rebooking later or a non-refundable voucher.

I can see that desperation is a rational response on their part just now.

[sanfrandragon]

Be carful on your purchasing of hydrogen peroxide in quantity unless you want the boys from '5' knocking on your door 

Also if the virus spreads as widely as the government anticipates there will presumably be a lack of train crew and other staff leading to a partial shut down of the network?

[Sixty3Closure]

My employer is making incident plans based on 25% staffing so I suspect other infrastructure related companies will have similar plans.

This isn't based everyone being ill but a combination of self isolation, restriction on movement and reduced public transport. There's also issues like if schools close then parents will need to be at home for child care.

[stuving]

My impression is that the number of ads I get by e-mail from airlines and the like has gone up recently - but maybe it's the context that has made them look more forlornly desperate to get us to book future trips. But today I got ones from Air France and SNCF^▸ (Societe Nationale des Chemins de fer Francais - French National Railways) (trading as Oui.com) offering added flexibility as an inducement.

SNCF tickets are already pretty flexible, but now they are saying that for any date up to 31st April you can rebook or cancel for a full refund. Air France's offer is more limited in time, and only for rebooking later or a non-refundable voucher.

I can see that desperation is a rational response on their part just now.

And now BA^» (British Airways - about)'s offer:

Book with total confidence

•     No change fee applies to new bookings on any route made from Tuesday 3 March to Monday 16 March 2020.
•     Change your booking to any date in the next 12 months.
•     Also available on flight + hotel and flight + car packages. No hotel change fees apply up to 48 hours before travel unless specified as non-changeable.
•     Any fare difference still applies.

[Marlburian]

Not that I've looked that carefully, but are there any estimates of a decrease in the numbers of rail travellers? Friends who have come from Paddington to Reading last Thursday and yesterday reckoned there was a noticeable decline. And yesterday Reading Station seemed quieter at 0930 and  1150. One friend used a taxi from Liverpool Street but took the Tube back, another cycled to Paddington.

[IndustryInsider]

Not that I've looked that carefully, but are there any estimates of a decrease in the numbers of rail travellers? Friends who have come from Paddington to Reading last Thursday and yesterday reckoned there was a noticeable decline. And yesterday Reading Station seemed quieter at 0930 and  1150. One friend used a taxi from Liverpool Street but took the Tube back, another cycled to Paddington.

Difficult to know, I'm sure there has been a drop, but only a small one so far.  Less essential weekend journeys might be where an obvious reduction is seen first. 

I see hundreds of 'ghost flights' are still operating to avoid losing slots at the airports:  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51809318

[stuving]

Not that I've looked that carefully, but are there any estimates of a decrease in the numbers of rail travellers? Friends who have come from Paddington to Reading last Thursday and yesterday reckoned there was a noticeable decline. And yesterday Reading Station seemed quieter at 0930 and  1150. One friend used a taxi from Liverpool Street but took the Tube back, another cycled to Paddington.

Difficult to know, I'm sure there has been a drop, but only a small one so far.  Less essential weekend journeys might be where an obvious reduction is seen first. 

The airlines' concern is holiday bookings, and some other longer term ones - everyone is holding off doing those. The shorter-term drop is partly based on no-go countries (like, now, Italy) and thus has to be suffered. Railways do do long-term advanced bookings, but I'm sure they are a smaller part of their business. So they may not feel the need to react. Plus, of course, if it has to be industry-wide it would take several years to negotiate,with or without DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)'s "help".

I see hundreds of 'ghost flights' are still operating to avoid losing slots at the airports:  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51809318

Airlines have requested a moratorium on those "use it or lose it" rules. At least, some have, but from whom? No doubt the same issue of who decides and how widely does it apply comes in here too - but maybe dire necessity will bear some inventive decisiveness in one or bath cases!

[nickswift99]

I would suggest that airlines are more concerned about the drop off in short-notice business travel. This is what drives premium ticket sales (Expensive walkups as well as business class).

Many international companies are restricting non-essential travel and, in some cases, banning all travel outside of local offices. This is irrespective of the country concerned.

This has a huge impact on airline cashflow in the short-term, not to mention profitability.

Airlines will also have hedged their fuel costs based on the recent relatively high prices, not on the ultra low prices available this week, so won't see the benefit of low prices for some time.

[broadgage]

Be carful on your purchasing of hydrogen peroxide in quantity unless you want the boys from '5' knocking on your door  ----------

Yes, to purchase large volumes could indeed attract unwanted attention.
Note however that most home made hand sanitisers only call for about 4% by volume of "low test" hydrogen peroxide that contains 3% active ingredient and 97% water.
Therefore one liter of 3% hydrogen peroxide solution would make about 25 liters of hand sanitiser. Not many people want more than that.
I ordered two packs each of one liter, from different suppliers. I don't really need that much but wanted to duplicate the order with different suppliers in case one lot failed to arrive.

[grahame]

I would suggest that airlines are more concerned about the drop off in short-notice business travel. This is what drives premium ticket sales (Expensive walkups as well as business class)

From BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) live feed at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-51765991 - lots of immediate flight cuts

Ryanair is suspending all Italian flights until 8 April, and Aer Lingus is has cancelled all flights to and from the country until 3 April

Korean Air has warned that the virus outbreak could threaten its survival after it scrapped more than 80% of its international capacity, grounding 100 of its 145 passenger aircraft.

Easyjet has confirmed that it has cancelled all of its flights to and from Italy for the next two days.

British Airways suspended all flights to and from Italy on Tuesday. British Airways refused refund requests to passengers booked on flights to Italian airports outside the north of the country until the Foreign and Commonwealth Office updated its travel advice on Monday night.  That means some passengers may have reluctantly travelled to Italy to avoid losing money and now face a struggle to get home.

Spain has cancelled all flights from Italy for two weeks in a bid to stop coronavirus spreading.

US carrier United Airlines has said expects to cut the number of seats available on its flights by at least 20% in May due to the effects of coronavirus.

Airline Norwegian has cancelled around 3,000 flights over the coming months due to a drop in demand because of the coronavirus.  It will also temporarily layoff "a significant share" of its workforce in response to the fall in bookings.