Looking ahead - the positive board even as services reduce to meet lower demand

[whole diary]

[grahame]

"Looking ahead - 2020 to 2045" has been renamed "Looking forward - after Coronavirus to 2045"

As I write, public transport use is falling off a cliff - as are many other things we have been familiar with all of our lives.  Train and bus services are being reduced in number, trains in length too, and some stations are being shut completely.  Sadly, these reductions do make sense in most cases in the current situation.  But we need to watch carefully - someone pointed a news rticle out to me the other day "in ordinary times, this would be a headline, but today it's an opportiunity to bury bad news", and there are one or two total cuts I have found hidden in small print already where I wonder "will that even come back".  For the absence of doubt, the total cuts I have picked up thus far do not relate to GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) stations or lines, though my data is incomplete and it is very likely there could be more cutting back.

This "Looking forward" board is an opportunty for us to look forward to when we turn the corner - probably not weeks, most likely months hopefully less than years and work out what we should be asking for in terms of rebuilt public transport provision. Do we want to campaign to get back every single reduced service, or do we pragmatically want to accept that something better can be grown for the future even if it involves loosing a longstanding service such as the train to Chathill, Teeside Airport station, or the daily National Express Coach from Melksham to London which ceases after Monday and, reading the mood musing of the National Express at TravelWatch SouthWest earlier this month, the operator is probably relieved to be rid of.

A time of change is a time of opportunity - let's be ready to grab the positive opportunity with shovel-ready ideas when we start looking at the way back up.

[Rhydgaled]

Quoted from other topics:

* It makes sure sense to match supply with demand

* It makes huge sense to reduce exposure of staff with reduced schedules

* A side effect of reductions in public transport is reductions in climate change

* We are so indoctrinated with "use it or loose it" ... will it all, ever, come back?

I'm rather concerned about the financial impact on my local bus company. Will they still be around to run services if and when patronage recovers after the virus is brought under control? In climate change terms, the reduction in flying is probably doing wonders for the environment at the moment but:

Numbers of passengers are still dropping and from the many long distance trains I’ve seen over the last 24 hours, I would say numbers are now at 10-20% of what you would usually expect.  That’s not 10-20% less, but in total.

Earlier this week the traffic jam I pass on my way to work (heading in the opposite direction to me) was much the same length as it had been for months. By Friday (yesterday) that had dropped to about 50% of its pre-virus length so that is probably a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions too. However 50% is a much smaller dent in road traffic than the near-total loss of rail patronage IndustryInsider is reporting. Single-occupancy cars are of course a form of 'social distancing' compared to a bus or train. With a vaccine reportedly a year off and the fear of the virus I'm afraid that public transport demand may not fully recover for many years.

Sorry, not the positive future you were looking for, but it's important to recognise the risk that virus-shyness may lead pepole to avoid public transport. Hopefully, by identifying the risk ways can be found to mitigate it.

[grahame]

.... Single-occupancy cars are of course a form of 'social distancing' compared to a bus or train. With a vaccine reportedly a year off and the fear of the virus I'm afraid that public transport demand may not fully recover for many years.

Sorry, not the positive future you were looking for, but it's important to recognise the risk that virus-shyness may lead pepole to avoid public transport. Hopefully, by identifying the risk ways can be found to mitigate it.

I'm not looking at how deep we fall (and that may indeed be deep - we can only guess) but how we protect and preserve on the way down and plan and partner for the best we can on the way back up.

[ellendune]

It is difficult to find equivalent events in our history.  In the last century the two world wars come to mind and before that the black death.  All these events to a greater or lesser extent lead to a more egalitarian society. 

The black death saw the end of the feudal system - essentially the freeing of slaves. 

WW1 - a land fit for hero's was not so significant a change.

WW2 saw the welfare state, the National Heath Service, the 1944 Education Act and much more.

Where will this crisis lead us?

[grahame]

It is difficult to find equivalent events in our history.  In the last century the two world wars come to mind and before that the black death.  All these events to a greater or lesser extent lead to a more egalitarian society. 

The black death saw the end of the feudal system - essentially the freeing of slaves. 

WW1 - a land fit for hero's was not so significant a change.

WW2 saw the welfare state, the National Heath Service, the 1944 Education Act and much more.

Where will this crisis lead us?

All three events you noted lasted five years ... is it the depth, duration, or area "under the curve" that has kicked such changes?   I'm answering a question with a question, and not suggesting an answer. 

[CyclingSid]

The black death saw the end of the feudal system - essentially the freeing of slaves.

I don't think we will see the end of economic feudalism that most have lived under for a century or more,

[Robin Summerhill]

It is difficult to find equivalent events in our history.  In the last century the two world wars come to mind and before that the black death.  All these events to a greater or lesser extent lead to a more egalitarian society. 

The black death saw the end of the feudal system - essentially the freeing of slaves. 

WW1 - a land fit for hero's was not so significant a change.

WW2 saw the welfare state, the National Heath Service, the 1944 Education Act and much more.

Where will this crisis lead us?

I agree with most of that except your view on post-WW1. The Homes Fit For Heroes concept led to the Addison Act which introduced the concept of local authority provided social housing, which in turn led by the 1930s to a blitz on insanitary conditions. Also, at about the same time, pensions were first introduced (not that many actually got them because the qualifying age was 70 and most people had died before they got there)

But if you want me to get out my crystal ball I would think that there will be a large, if not vast, affect on commuting. As people increasingly work from home, and employers realise that the job still gets done and they can save substantial sums of money in office accommodation and office provision, I think that the concept will catch on.

I have thought for some time that when it comes to pollution and global warming, the elephant in the room is commuting. It is not that long ago that very few people outside London lived more than 3 or 4 miles from their place of work. Railway locomotive depots used to employ “knockers up,” boys who would go around on their bikes in the small hours to raise somnolent footplate staff from their slumbers. That wouldn’t be feasible today even if employment regulations still allowed 14 year old lads to be at work at 0300.

It is easy to pick on the aviation industry, but personally I wonder how much pollution we could stop or Co2 emissions we could save and how much global warming we could prevent if we could stop a few million people in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom), let alone the rest of the world, jumping into their every morning and driving anything from half an hour to two hours to get to work, and then doing the same thig again in the evening for 48 weeks of every year? I would suggest there are quite a few transatlantic jumbo jet emissions totals in that lot.

We might just get the chance to find out before long.

[broadgage]

I am sorry to say, that I am not optimistic about the future of railways in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom).
I have previously stated, before the coronavirus, that there seems to be a culture in the rail industry of "what downgrades can we get away with" rather than "what improvements can we make"

I fear that the virus will be used as a splendid excuse to make permanent any short term downgrades.

Pullman dining has been withdrawn, reasonably under the circumstances, but I doubt that it will return.
Night Riviera, likewise.
I have previously been very critical of downgrading intercity services to 5 car DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit), with minimal luggage space, hard seats and no buffet.

For years, growing passenger numbers have been ignored in the rush to use shorter trains. A potential short term decline in numbers will be used to justify more cuts in both capacity and facilities.

A decade of rising numbers=short trains are fine, we hope to run more of them.
One year of falling numbers= Great, short trains are fine.

[IndustryInsider]

A time of change is a time of opportunity - let's be ready to grab the positive opportunity with shovel-ready ideas when we start looking at the way back up.

Glass half full.

I am sorry to say, that I am not optimistic about the future of railways in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom).

Glass half empty.

[TaplowGreen]

A time of change is a time of opportunity - let's be ready to grab the positive opportunity with shovel-ready ideas when we start looking at the way back up.

Glass half full.

I am sorry to say, that I am not optimistic about the future of railways in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom).

Glass half empty.

Glass of Port, presumably? 😉

[Bmblbzzz]

It is difficult to find equivalent events in our history.  In the last century the two world wars come to mind and before that the black death.  All these events to a greater or lesser extent lead to a more egalitarian society. 

The black death saw the end of the feudal system - essentially the freeing of slaves. 

WW1 - a land fit for hero's was not so significant a change.

WW2 saw the welfare state, the National Heath Service, the 1944 Education Act and much more.

Where will this crisis lead us?

All three events you noted lasted five years ... is it the depth, duration, or area "under the curve" that has kicked such changes?   I'm answering a question with a question, and not suggesting an answer. 

We don't yet know how long this epidemic will last, especially in terms of further waves of infection.

[GBM]

We know of one member who has a plentiful supply of most things now being sought.

He seemed to come in for some criticism/rebuke earlier for doing so.

[broadgage]

A time of change is a time of opportunity - let's be ready to grab the positive opportunity with shovel-ready ideas when we start looking at the way back up.

Glass half full.

I am sorry to say, that I am not optimistic about the future of railways in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom).

Glass half empty.

Glass of Port, presumably? 😉

Port is now rationed to three bottles per customer for home delivery, if indeed a delivery can be booked.

[jamestheredengine]

WW1 - a land fit for hero's was not so significant a change.

I'd argue that this was the most significant change of all – it made suburbia mainstream, rather than "villas" for a few reasonably privileged people.